Big 12 Win Total Predictions! (2024) - Part 3 #big12football #predictions #collegefootball

Intro & Methodology [Music] welcome back to the Saturday Scholars college football podcast thanks for watching thanks for listening that is Zan I am Shu and today we are here to cover Big 12 win totals part three today we will be covering the four newcomers from the Pack 12 the four corner schools and BYU Arizona Arizona State Brigham Young Colorado and Utah this pretty fun batch we got a couple Big 12 contenders here couple playoff contenders well I don't know maybe three playoff contenders in this batch depending uh if you're EA Sports or not but I think that this is a fun group to talk about and uh let's get into it man how we doing on this Monday night you ready to wrap up the Big 12 ready to wrap it up man let's get on to the the West Coast teams or the West teams the Mountain West teams is really what they are we're head into the Mountain West Time Zone plus Arizona which technically is Mountain West time zone but really not all right so Arizona starting at the top Arizona U OFA the Wildcats come in with a win total of seven and a half wins slight juic the over there at minus 120 basically even on both sides according to Caesars new head coach Brent Brennan comes in to Tucson he came over from San Jose State he had a 34 and 48 record in seven season to San Jose State but if you break it down his first two seasons there at San Jose State 3 and 22 but then his final five seasons he went 31 and 26 and keep in mind that is a pretty tough job San Jose State so if you're batting above 500 a place like that that's pretty good job so his final five years had a winning record there um Arizona of course last year you lose Jed fish who left for Washington kind of a snake move in our opinion we had a we put out multiple videos about on this channel for Arizona fans um you guys showed out in our videos so we appreciate that but Jed fish just took off and left for Washington when really this team is was just so set up and still is set up pretty well to have a pretty good season and contend for a big 12 championship and a playoff appearance so there is still a lot to like with this team but a transition at the top of the coaching staff certainly something that you have to factor in when talking about this team so now that Brent Brennan is is in the power five in the power four what's your say on Arizona for 2024 under first year head coach Brennan well Arizona's very intriguing team Shu um I mean they were top 20 in both offense and defense efficiency last year which is crazy when you think of the Arizona Wildcats that's not something that you really think of so it'll be interesting to see because we basically have a whole new a whole new staff this year I mean Dino babers was the head coach over at C and now he's the OC over here for Brent Brennan that'll be interesting and then You' got the defensive coordinator Dwayne Aina so we'll see how this works out man um but I think the big thing here to highlight with Arizona is that they're actually a very well-rounded team despite um you know losing jedf fish and a couple pieces but for the most part they retained a lot of the key parts of this team um which is very important obviously you have Noah faid coming back I mean Noah ffid is Young he's really good he's proven um and we're hoping that you know he can continue that level level of uh prowess that he had under Jeff fish or Jed fish um and if that happens Arizona's in a great spot uh we look at what they have here at the running back position man and I mean they have two really good running back transfers coming in they have jakori crosy Meritt coming in who's a 1,200 yard rusher with 17 tutes from New Mexico and then they're going to split carries with a quali Conley who's an 800 yard rusher with nine tutes from Stan Jose State so they've got over 2,000 yards coming in at running back so that's something to really look to if you're an Arizona Wildcat faithful then of course you've got ttor McMillian coming back I mean that dude's an absolute Beast 1,400 yards and 10 tutes come on now like top 10 pick he could go in the top 10 in the draft this year yeah he's an absolute Beast now they did also bring in Ray Melo Murphy from Old Dominion but otherwise like this wide receiver group is going to have to step up a little bit and support ttor McMillan uh because he can't do it all all by himself uh they did bring in Sam Olson from San Jose State as well at the tight end create a big body there but um we'll see if that's beneficial I look at the offensive line tube and I think it's going to be a pretty average unit despite losing Jordan Morgan to the NFL I I would I would I would classify them strictly as an average unit not good not bad an average unit uh and I think that will be good enough to kind of propel this offense so this offense was Top 20th in efficiency last year I think they definitely had the potential to stay there provided Dino babers does the you know does the proper job I mean we have the talent to stay there we'll see that if you know Arizona is able to maintain that level of play so that's something that's really nice if you're an Arizona Wildcat faithful I expect them to be top 20 or top 30 in offensive efficiency this year they're going to be a solid Squad we look over at defense man their whole D line is basically transfers um some of them gray out really well though they've got trba Mai coming in from UC Davis and they've got Kevin Darton coming in from qes um but then the rest of the guys are more like not a lot of playing time not really so much that we can grade them on so there's a little bit of a question mark there but we do know that they do have some players on the defensive line that can be uh impactful so I'm going to say it's going to be an average defensive line unit that's about what I'm expecting for them uh again on lines of skirmish they're not good they're not bad but they are respectable and that's pretty solid there you look up at the next level man you got JC Manu coming back it's good to have returning production at that level and then you also have Justin Flo former five star I mean if you all know that name I mean he was a former five star one of the top you know recruited linebackers in his class when he came out and they got him from Oregon um so it'll be interesting I think that front seven has some potential so we'll see what that looks like come come the future um we look back at the back end here tario Davis returns that's a big get back because he's a pretty dang good corner and then you return uh trade in Dukes who's also pretty good as well so I really like what they have at that position you also return both safeties and Gunner alado and Dalton Johnson so I I'm really liking what I see here from Arizona man I think they're a pretty well-rounded team I don't see any glaring weaknesses at any level um if anything this is going to be a tough team to beat in the Big 12 and this is why they're certainly contenders we jump to the schedule man and you know they're sitting there at a line of seven and a half with pretty not even juice to both sides but close enough given like what some of these are are labeled as now um but they play New Mexico and NAU good you get a little couple exhibition games you're going to win those two you'll start 2-0 then you got to go at Kansas State and that's where it gets a little tough because that's that's going to be a very hard uh introductory to the Big 12 um let me see uh is this a big 12 game yeah I was about to say this is one of those where they play as a non-conference match but so that's so this is the thing so they're going to get introduced to Kansas State in their big 12 but it's open as an affiliate member but technically it's not a Big 12 Conference game because they're playing the they're finishing out the non-conference series and treating it that way so it won't count against either team in the standings if they lose it in the conference standings and still nonetheless that's going to be a tough game for them but then you get a bye we before Big 12 Play which is really nice because you get a bye-week to go at Utah Utah is you know considered to be one of the Front Runners to win the conference this year the fact that you get to start with them early in the year first game and you get a bye to prepare for them I think that very crucial for Arizona I think they can definitely give the Utes a game over there I I see that as a probable game I still kind of lean Utah there but I definitely can see Arizona taking that game given the circumstances then you've got Texas Tech Texas Tech we're both a little bit higher on but you are at home in that game that should be an interesting one I think Texas Tech you know being all the way out there in West Texas this could become like a little bit of a a rivalry in the future um then we go at BYU should win that game you're you're definitely a notch over BYU Colorado we'll see what Colorado looks like by this point in the season Colorado does have some improvement but I would expect Arizona to win this game then you go at UCF which is kind of a far travel you got to go all the way to Florida to play this game late season we'll see if you're banged up what you're looking like um but this is going to be a kind of a tossup kind of game and we'll see what KJ Jefferson's looking like for UCF or if he's still healthy come this come this part of the season um so that will determine a lot for uh Arizona then you get a bye to prepare for Houston which you don't really need a bye to prepare for Houston but you got it nonetheless he'll probably win and I really like this late season bye just in case McMillan gets banged up or one of these running backs goes Downs or maybe F's got like a tweak somewhere and he's not playing as well because he's fighting on an injury you've got a whole bye here late season to get back in shape and make a push to the Big 12 Championship you get Houston pretty SI pretty easy and then you go at TCU which is not going to be easy and then you get Arizona state which I expect you to wipe the floor at Arizona State so two of those last three you're probably going to be a heavy favorite in so that's really nice for Arizona they're line seven and a half man um I look here and I say like where are they going to lose maybe K State maybe Utah maybe Texas Tech uh maybe UCF maybe TCU that's like five potentials but you would have to lose all five of those to get this under and then maybe like slip up against Colorado or something something of that nature but uh quite honestly sh I I don't see them losing all five of those they're they're going to win some of these games if anything I I see Arizona going 9 and three or and two I I think they'll be a pretty solid team this year um I think eight and four at the minimum um I think this over is a pretty safe play and so I'm going to go at this over for Arizona with uh with pretty high confidence high confidence high confidence I love it I think they can win I think they can win eight all right let's go so zan with high confidence going on the over for U OFA so I kind of have uh the same assessment I share your confidence in this team um one thing about Dino bers just want to point out so this is actually is not his first time as the offensive coordinator to Arizona believe it or not if you look back at his coaching history he was the OC at Arizona in 1998 through 2000 so it's not his first time it may be almost 25 years later but not his first time as the OC at Arizona so that's just kind of funny um welcome back Dino welcome back Dino 25 years later it's been uh since Y2K since he's back at the OC spot in Tucson but anyways yeah man this I just want to say I I just I had such a huge appreciation for Arizona season last year going 10 and three seemingly coming out of nowhere and honestly if you were to really adjust the season for um basically the back half of the season if you if you cut the season in half and just look at how good teams were middle of the season and on through the rest of the season you can make an argument that Arizona for a majority of the back half of the season was one of the best teams in the country probably like a top 10 team and I just think it's a shame that they lost those early season games to Mississippi State in overtime which they really shouldn't have lost that game was a complete fluke they had like four turnovers and lost in overtime the Mississippi State they shouldn't have lost that game and then they lost to USC in a shootout they only lost by a couple points I believe a two-o Williams man it's hard to beat cayb Williams it was at the beginning of the year before we knew that Arizona was going to be really good and before we knew that USC was going to just fall apart and lose a bunch of games um but those are two teams or I feel like man if Arizona replayed those two games later in the season they probably beat Mississippi well they definitely beat Mississippi State and they probably beat USC and uh so I just think like man if it it just seems like something that ah if they just if they just had things go their way in either one of those games you're looking you're looking at a team that would have finished 11- two and maybe would have been a French playoff Contender last year but either way um looking in his this season yeah it is T just the timing of jetfish leaving just really sucks again we made a video about it go check out that out on our Channel but I do like Brent Brennan as a coach but of course there's going to be a little bit of transition here obviously love McMillan but when you lose Jacob Cohen and you lose Tanner mclin the tight end two of their best receivers outside of McMillan that's going to be a huge drop off so there's going to be a drop off all around at skill position Talent here even by retaining McMillan and McMillan isn't even it's a question whether he's going to be fully healthy going into the season too I know he's dealing with an injury but I'm sure he'll be able to get back by the beginning of the season and luckily they start out with UNM and and na so that that shouldn't be a problem I would hope if you're an Arizona fan um I found an interesting that Jonas savan a projected late first round or projected possibly early second round draft pick they're moving him out to right tackle but I do think that this offensive line is probably going to um probably going to retain its its prowess I think even with a loss of Jordan Morgan and then as far as defensively man I do like the secondary a lot I think the back end definitely is the strength of this defense I think that this the defensive line is where the questions are um in my eyes but my model is pretty high on Arizona my model has 9.3 wins for Arizona so my model is kind of seeing what uh what you're seeing Zan and I kind of agree with it I think that obviously with faid coming back I mean that's huge faid he's going to be projected to be about like a day two guy in the draft I think maybe third round as of right now maybe a day three guy if you know he doesn't you know depending on how the draft shakes out but if he just wasn't 5'11 and 5'11 is probably a little bit generous he's 511 194 that's what he's listed as if he was just a few inches taller maybe a little bit thicker I think this guy could be a possibly first round draft pick I think he has the talent but he just it's the size that's really holding him back and doesn't have the biggest arm but but the kid can play and I love watching him play and I think that if he was just a bigger physically I think he could be make a play for a first round draft pick and obviously that's just going to carry this team I think you have Noah fafo who I also have a Heisman future on 30 to one I don't expect it to hit but I just took a flyer on that so when you have no faf in my opinion one of the best quarterbacks in the country that's going to carry you pretty far especially when every game on your schedule is a possible win and my model has them favored in a lot of games 9.3 the only toss-ups that I have is at Kansas State and at Utah that's really it I have them I don't have them as an underdog in any game really not not even a single game those those two games uh Kansas State and Utah are tossup so the model I think is really liking fa coming back for sure but I do think that there's potential for the offense to regress just because you don't have the the Litany of receiving options that did last year and you know there probably will be a little bit of transition with with Bren Brennon new coaching staff you know Jed fish was just a phenomenal coach and I think that that's definitely an intangible that you have to factor in somehow here so I'm totally with you man I'm I'm pretty confident this team can win eight games so I like the over here I'm surprised that the line is down as low as it is but you know you got three potential first round picks on the roster I mean that's that's got to be good for some man it's got to be good for something I'm going over but I'm going to go at it with just low confidence I'm not as high as you because I do think that uh you're just a faf injury or McMillan injury away from this team potentially having problems and you know you do have those early season slate at Kansas State at Utah at UCF at TCU you know we're Texas Tech was also a team that I'm that we're both pretty high on relative to the market it's not the easiest schedule that's for sure um in the big in terms of Big 12 play so because I'm higher on a lot of these teams I'm not just going to say that Arizona wipes through this schedule so that's why low confidence on the over there but I guess we'll see but point is we both like the over here and I feel pretty good about it as long as uh you get a good strong season out of Noah faid okay moving on Arizona State let's head up to Tempe Arizona State they come Arizona State with a win total of four and a half wins uh shoes to the under a minus 170 there on Caesars Kenny Dillingham comes into his second season at ASU pretty tough first year for Dillingham they went three and n a tough uh rebuilding situation that Dillingham is facing just overall at Arizona State definitely not one of the easier uh head coaching situations to inherit um after the complete just mess that Herm Edwards left him um on and off the field there so it is a tough uh rebuilding situation but obviously you know Arizona State fans are you just got to got to preach patience got to preach patience with Dillingham but year two the Outlook not necessarily the greatest of course of of course the win total is only four and a half wins do you see reason for optimism here is there any hope that maybe year two is where Arizona State can start turning around under Kenny Dillingham um I mean we'll see man they brought in Marcus a Royo from UNLV to be the OC you know he's got a lot of coaching experience we'll see if that helps you know Elevate them but I look at this roster man and I mean you've got Sam leit coming in from MSU you've got Jeff Sims coming in for Nebraska neither one of those guys are really great quarterback options unfortunately um you've got Cam and that's just being nice about it um you've got cam scabbo uh playing at you brought him back he's a tough bruising Runner I do like him he's a 800 yard guy with nine nine tutes but other than that man I mean like the rest of this offense there's no significant standouts in that wide receiver room there's just no one that jumps off the page that can be the alpha there or do anything um the offensive line Looks relatively average if not bad um then the defensive line Looks average at best they did get a good little ad there from Louisville with Jeff Clark uh who grades out pretty well but overall I mean the dline might be average at best as I said the linebacking room is all transfers man so I don't know what to expect from the linebacking room this could be a decent unit but again it's kind of iffy and then we look at the corners man and they have transfers on both sides of the ball projected to start start from wazo and LSU granted they got Cole Martin from Oregon who's going to be a solid nickel corner but other than that I I don't really know what they've got there especially um with this LSU guy who grades 93 out of high school but didn't really see a lot of time at LSU and that maybe with reason and then I don't know man this this team's just not very good um like from top to bottom this team has so many glaring issues they were 94th in offens of efficiency last year if my numbers are correct and that's pretty terrible Shu and I don't expect it to be much better this year if I'm being honest with you I think they're going to hover in that range if not maybe be slightly worse um defense like you know top 60 barely but I think we're kind of looking at more of the same here man I like Kenny Dillingham I just don't like this roster um and I don't think this this is roster that can do much of anything I mean you start with Wyoming in and Wyoming isn't going to be a complete Cakewalk I mean that's a game that you should win but Wyoming is a well- coached team and if it's early season and if you don't have you know all your all your chickens in the coup here you're going to you're going to lose this game so you got to be careful um and then you play Mississippi State which I expect you to lose you go at Texas State you'll probably win that one then you go at Texas Tech I expect you to lose this game you go on a bye to prepare for Kansas I expect you to lose still you play Utah I expect you to lose go at Cincinnati and this is where it kind of gets to the nitty-gritty here because Cincinnati is one of those teams that you might be able to beat but the problem is it's at Cincinnati um and so these toss-up games being kind of away doesn't really work well in your favor um so I'm kind of leaning Cincinnati there too I mean Cincinnati's got some good offensive weapons uh they got a good o line uh I like more what I see with Cincinnati I would lean Cincinnati in favor on that you get a bye-week to prepare for Oklahoma State but again by this point in the season and Oklahoma state is kind of a notch above you and they're at home I don't think you beat the pokes then you play UCF who's a pretty solid team I don't think you beat UCF then you play Kansas State I don't think you beat Kansas State I mean that's a gauntlet right there Oklahoma State UCF Kansas State that's a rough part of the schedule then you get a little bit light with BYU but then you got to go play Arizona so you're playing a gauntlet you're playing like a lot of the better teams in the Big 12 on your schedule and you don't really have a great roster on board and I'm not even fully confident in your noncon at best I think you go two and one in onc con but there's a chance that you might even go one and two in onc con and let's say even best case scenario you go two and one in noncon how many conference games can I actually expect Arizona State to walk out of here with maybe the BYU game maybe the Cincinnati game so best case scenario they get two in noncon they get what maybe two in conference games and they're still sitting there at four and this is like kind of my best case scenario this is a heavy under for me Shu I'm Going Under on the uh Arizona State sunnd devils and I'm going at it with high confidence sans's coming here with high confidence on uh the Arizona schools right here so I'm going to agree with you I'm just going to fire it off as well I'm going to go under four and a half wins with medium confidence and that's because we're getting that extra half there on that line even though there's a huge juice to the under there so not much uh if you're actually betting this number uh you got to lace 177 to win 10 but anyways I'm going to go at it with medium confidence not completely high confidence and the the reason I'm not going at it with complete high confidence is because I do think that last year was just a tough year to judge uh Kenny Dillingham in Arizona State because first of all the Jaden Rashad experiment didn't work out they they had a bunch of injuries at quarterback Tren boray was terrible I'm surprised he's still there honestly and then the offensive line they had injuries out the wazo they were playing running they were running one Wildcat for a good bit there last season so like it just wasn't I think because of that you just can't judge this offense I really do think that this is almost sort of like a year one for Kenny Dillingham in my opinion just assuming that they just have better QB health and offensive line Health by the Fall their QB situation is bad man they don't have on that roster I'm not saying it's good but I think it's going to it's better than having to run Wildcat for a good amount of time like they had to do last year but point is taken yeah you well hey man I'm trying to be optimistic here but their quarterbacks are pretty bad man yeah Sam L it and Jeff Sims you're not you're not going to get much done there with those two guys but I do think just just simply having Health just having those guys not get hurt can be a little bit better so I do think this offense can improve just a little bit just with sheer bodily health and I think that Kenny Dillingham is I think that the fact that he got them inside the top 100 in efficiency despite all those issues last year just shows how good of The Mastermind of a play caller he is because let's keep in mind like Kenny Dillingham got this job because he was a phenomenal play caller at Oregon he's pretty creative Kenny Dillingham but they just they just don't have the roster man like the X's and O's matter but the jimmies and Joe's matter more and they don't have any jimmies nor Joe's agreed there but I think that they can improve from sub 100 that that's what I'm calling for I'm calling for minor Improvement above sub 100 um but yeah shout out to cam scowell that guy's kid's a great player he's bowling ball he's a good player and then defensively I was surprised they were 67th last year in defensive efficiency this defensive line was the worst in the Big 12 in terms of line yards by a country mile last year I they did do a lot of work in the portal just to add size but I'm not really confident in here I mean this defense is just just a bunch of portal ads just hoping that something sticks and and it gets better um so I'm not really expecting much from the different uh from the defense to be honest my model has 4.2 wins for Arizona State so just above four wins actually which I think is uh sort of optimistic but again we got the four and a half here on the win total so I do think that the sports books are expecting Improvement by default from Arizona State the problem is their schedule is pretty dang tough I mean I know last year the pack to was really good of course that was like the best the the toughest the Pack 12 has been in years but if you look at Arizona State schedule I mean just look at the non-conference play like this is they are legitimately at risk of going 0 and three in non-conference play I'm telling you that because Wyoming is no pushover of a Mountain West team last year why only beat Texas Tech in the opening game if you guys recall so they already beat a big 12 team last year you're at risk of losing that then you play Mississippi State who is probably going to be one of the worst teams in the SEC probably the second worst team in the though we haven't looked at that conference yet but it's going to be one of the worst teams in the league but they still probably just have a little bit better of a roster than you do but you're at home I have them as an underdog but I don't think it's something that they can't win if if if maybe they surprise us but then at Texas State here's the thing I don't know why you scheduled I don't know why you're going to play at Texas State watch out sundevils do not sleep when you head to San Marcos to face the Texas State Bobcats because I'm telling you right now my model thinks that is a close to a tossup like a slight favorite for Arizona State but if you don't bring your aame you might lose to the Bobcats there so just watch out so you get the point here I'm not expecting them to go three and0 and nonon I think it would be I think it'd be a win if they win two of those three games if I going to be honest that is that is extremely tricky non-conference slate right there and then the Big 12 draw I the most winable draw I mean if we're going to be honest depending on how you View Wyoming and BYU I mean I mean in Mississippi State like what's their most winnable game I know you have I say BYU I would say by CU they're at home yeah they're at home against BYU but I I'd say you you probably are more worried about losing to Texas State than you are on the road and you are going to face BYU at home I mean BYU's quarterback situation is also pretty terrible so that that might be one you got in the bank but I'm just you know the model is still saying you can get to four wins so it's it's it's given Kenny Dillingham the benefit of the doubt here and I am too but the schedule is just tough and I'm not especially at 4 and a half there's no shot I'm laying over there there's no shot so I'm going to go over or under with medium confidence the only reason like I said I'm not going with high confidence is because I do believe in Kenny Dillingham and I do think that they had a lot of bad things not go their way last year so I we'll see we'll see but schedule is tough all BYU right moving on to the aformentioned BYU Cougars by comes in with a win total of four wins even and it's a little bit of juice to the over at minus 140 Kanani sataki ninth season at BYU there in Provo they went five and seven last year they really didn't have high expectations going to last season in their first year into the Big 12 I know they had a lot uh they lost a lot last year off that roster and they also had Keaton slovis go down with an injury Midway through the year so BYU also dealt with quarterback problems last year but um I'd say that them going five and seven was actually a slight surprise for in a good way I would say cuz the the expectations were pretty low I don't know if you remember last year their win total was like four or four and a half so they did beat that number but of course if you're a fan I mean you don't want you're not you don't care about the win total you want to make bowl games and you want to compete in the Big 12 but right now the sportsbooks say four wins even is the line what's your assessment of BYU in uh 2024 I mean they they're barely they barely a top 100 offense last year Shu and that that says a lot pretty bad offensive play look man it's not going to be any better at the quarterback position I mean yeah slis went down last year but I mean you're going to feel like you you're going to feel like you're down to your second or third string quarterback again this year even with your starter I mean you've got Jake Rett laugh and then you got Jerry bohannan Who's on like his 16th school so I mean we we we legitimately don't have a good slate of quarterbacks here you do have some experience with banan but none of these guys guys are are are proven Commodities none of these guys are solid quarterbacks then you've got LJ Martin coming back he's a 500 yard rusher but sub five yards per carry not super efficient when we consider college level and then the only notable wide receiver that you've got coming back is Chase Roberts who's a pretty solid guy but everyone else like really has to step up there you know I saw that puka Nu sua's brother is now on the roster but he's not cracking the depth chart as of right now so we'll see um and then I look at the Old Line man and you lose Kingsley Samaya shout out Jamal Charles for for that draft night blunder oh yeah have you seen that video that's right that's right yeah yeah it's not even the pronunciation it's not even the pronunciation of the name it's just like he's just like the Kansas City chief select Go Chief uh but anyway anyway uh but anyway since you lose Kingsley suaya you just don't recruit an elite level here man like BYU is probably going to go downward on their offensive line play without you know that big boy over there at tackle and so there's really just nothing about this offense that I look at that I'm like yeah okay I can see I can see this you know being this so maybe maybe if red you know red slap or or Bohanan you know takes a step forward this year possibly but with what offensive line with what weapons to throw to I just don't see it like I bohanon I mean he had time at Baylor and USF and he had actually some decent receivers at USF at one point and then at Baylor I mean he had a lot of talent around him and he still wasn't that great so I don't know man konic sataki you've got you got a lot on your plate man um I think he's a good coach given the fact that they never recruit at an elite level over there at BYU and they still you know remain somewhat competitive at least before joining the Big 12 um but yeah man it's I think it's going to be rough for them we look over at the defensive side of the ball you've got three experienced defensive ends kind of returning in rotation which I do like and they're all pretty solid they all great out pretty well so the Ste line could have the potential to be one of your stronger units of this team so I do like that so that at least gives you some hope to maybe like maybe force some um you know quarterbacks to be uncomfortable maybe force some turnovers do over the case uh whatever the case may be to keep you in games but then we look back and the linebacking room is not great however they did get a transfer in Jack Kelly who I really like from Weaver State who grades out excellent as a pass rusher PFF has him as a 91 one gred pass rushers so that um BYU might be able to bring the Heat against some teams they've got good defensive ends they got some linebackers that can Rush those gaps so BYU might be able to get some sacks on some people and force some turnovers but other than that man secondary looks a little weak and inexperienced they're going to have to step up at that level not really big there but man I will say the Saving Grace is is the pass rush for this defense But ultimately man this this team doesn't have a lot going on for him you start out with Southern Illinois in the schedule you should win that game you go at SMU I don't expect you to beat SMU SMU is too good you go at Wyoming that's like a toss up for me you may or may not beat Wyoming but let's say best case scenario is you do beat Wyoming what's with these big 12 schools in their loveair with scheduling Wyoming I know right I don't get it Wyoming is a quality Mountain West program um and then uh Kansas State you open against Kansas State I think you lose that one you go at Baylor that one is winnable versus Baylor but we'll see what this new Baylor team looks like I still think they're a little a notch above BYU this year but that is certainly a game that BYU can win if they're able to force some turnovers and play efficient ball there then you get a byee to prepare for Arizona I don't think it's going to matter you're still going to lose to Arizona you're going to lose to Oklahoma State you're going to lose to UCF you get a little Gauntlet right there and then you get a bye-week to play at Utah so four games in a row you're playing some pretty tough competition in the Big 12 and I think there's a pretty good chance you're going to go 0 and four in that stretch there's a chance maybe you get lucky in one of those and you snipe one of these teams but I think it's more likely that you're going to go on and four than one and three in that stretch you get Kansas late season here which could be a benefit to you because Kansas we we talked about it when we went over Kansas Shu if Kansas loses Jaylen Daniels by this point in the season Kansas could be cooked the backup quarterback play may not be that good BYU is at home in this game could have a Fighting Chance in that game if that's the situation that plays out but if Jaylen Daniels is healthy there's no way there's no shot you're going to win this game against Kansas and then you go at Arizona state that is a winnable game and you get Houston which is a winnable game so Shu I mean like I see southern Illinois I see at Wyoming but if I'm being honest I think Wyoming I kind of lean Wyoming in that game but let's just say best case scenario you know they beat Wyoming then You' got Arizona State Houston that's four and maybe you steal one uh in the middle here you got Baylor that's a winnable and then maybe you steal one from this gauntlet I mean like that's like five and a half winnable games I would say um I think 4 and eight is pretty likely for them uh I think three and N is unlikely I I'm really like this is not one I would touch with money at all because I mean there's just really nothing for me to gain out of it I think 4 and eight is kind of where it's at I do I see them winning five not really do I see them losing you know nine games to be three and N I don't know about all that but I'm going to go ahead and say um I'm going to go push to under with low confidence on BYU actually push to under with low confidence push to under with low confidence yeah so thing with BYU is you know I look at this defense and I actually do like some of the things they have to work with on this defense and it was quietly you know average last year in ter in the FBS 54th last year in defensive efficiency they did have one of the worst defensive line in the Big 12 last year but I do think they take a step forward this year which is a good thing but um I really saw I I really think like there is room for improvement here and there's some positive things you can point to on the defensive side of the ball but the offensive side of the ball I just don't I'm just not seeing it I'm I'm not seeing it um offensive line maybe gets a little bit better but the quarterback situation like Jake Jake redl was pretty bad last year and I don't think this old Line's getting better sh they lost their best guy they did they just returned some experience yeah it is it's probably a wash at at best but anyways quarterback situation like red laugh was pretty terrible last year and then you're bringing a Gary Bohanan I'm like whoa wait a minute I've I've heard that name before like wait a minute that's the guy that that that won the Big 12 Championship with Baylor in 2021 as you and I both uh know for we I feel like we brought that up like three different times somehow that's been referenced you're talking about the big 12 man I mean but so I look I'm like okay so where the like what happened to Gary bohannan what happened to this guy and like he won a big 12 championship at Baylor three years ago and he went to USF and hardly played at all he didn't even play a snap last year he didn't even play he didn't have the starting job at USF last year he transfers to BYU and I'm like well if you really look at Gary bohanan's career that 2021 season is the outlier like that just seems like a complete fluke I don't know how the hell that happened and again that just complete flute quarterbacks that have their career season games against Oklahoma State I'll leave it at that I don't want to go down that rabbit hole anymore but I it just blows my mind but the guy didn't play last year I know Rett sl's pretty bad but I don't you you just can't expect him to just magically revive his 2021 season for BYU and and bring them to a bowl game I just do not see that happening I really just think that quarterback room is just going to drive this team ceiling down for me I really feel like that's really it I'm going to go under here with medium confidence and I'm going at it with medium confidence because you got the push Insurance there at four but I just don't see a path to I don't see a path to five wins the only way that I see a path to five wins is if of course you take care of you beat Southern Illinois that's in the bag you win against Wyoming and then you beat Arizona State and Houston and I feel like that's asking for much just to get the four and then either you take care of business against Baylor early in the season Baylor ends up being a lot weaker than we expect or maybe like you said Jaylen Daniels gets her late season and you be Kansas but I feel like everything that I just mentioned that these are all asking for prayers here and you said you you lean Wyoming I mean my model only has BYU as a 55% chance to beat Wyoming at Wyoming so like that's that's a tossup model has it as a tossup I just do not see a path here and um like you said those weaker Big 12 opponents that they face at Baylor at Arizona State they're both away you get Houston at home that's the only weaker team you get at home I just do not see a path here for five wins so I'm going to go with medium confidence on the under um but if BYU does win five or they do get to a bowl game I mean that's a good coaching job byak great coaching job if they if they get to a bowl game that is a great coaching job and if they do it'll be because all of a sudden Jake redl just like turns into a God or bohannan just like puts on the magician hat and and revives his 2021 Baylor days which I I don't see that happening they do go play at Baylor by the way which is uh kind of interesting so bannan will go back there to Waco in week five but anyways yeah I I just don't see it I don't see it and I know there's rumors out there uh there's Rumblings I know BYU fans aren't particularly happy right now with Kanani sataki so his days if if this season goes as we expected to his days there might be numbered but we'll see overall track record shows he's a good coach but you definitely don't want to fall back and uh get into the perception as one of the bottom tier teams in the Big 12 when you're in the new league that's for sure so I can't play BYU fans Colorado there all right next up the Colorado buffalos coming with a win total of five and a half on Caesars little juice the over there minus 140 Dion Sanders head coach in his second season there in Boulder Colorado went 4 and8 last season um unless you've been living under a rock I'm pretty sure you were pretty in tune with what Colorado did last year um they started out 4-0 and probably was the biggest fluky 4-0 start that I think we've seen in recent memory but you know what it was the best time for it because it it brought a lot of hype a lot of attention to Colorado and yeah they did not make a bowl game last year but the team a lot of the team is coming back this year a lot of the star players are back and they just went off to the races in the portal just loaded up with talents bring in a ton of talent in the portal and it's Deon second year you got all your your big horses back what can we expect from Colorado in year two with Dion Sanders being honest with you Shu I think this team is better than it was last year um will it translate on the field is the question here I mean Shader Sanders obviously coming back and he was crazy efficient last year on 3200 yards 27 touchdowns and three picks it's like insanely good but I mean he has been accused of taking sacks um you know and like just to like Pat the stats not risk throwing interceptions and BR right off the bat I mean like you know what I mean so like I mean he has played well but he has been accused of doing some more self-righteous self-centered kind of actions I'm glad you brought we'll see man the culture yeah the culture is definitely something at Colorado that kind of concerns me with this team because there I mean there is you know like potential with roster there absolutely is um I mean you brought in Pat Shermer as your OC he's got a Litany of NFL offensive coordinating experience this dude has been around for a fat minute and then you bring in U Robert Livingston to be your new DC who was the uh defensive backs coach over at Sensei so I don't really know about that one but anyways I do like that offensive coordinator higher of Pat Shermer I think that at least gives them some potential like with a guy with NFL experience and my my guess is that Dion did that on purpose purpose to try to get shadur like an offensive coordinator with NFL experience to prepare him for the NFL um and that's why he h went out and got Pat shurmer um I look over at the running backs man the running backs are not impressive at all just a bunch of transfers and the only guy returning is Charlie offerall who's hasn't really done anything so we'll see what they bring at that level but I think this is going to be more of a passing team obviously because they want to get shadur I mean you you've heard you've heard Prime man you've heard Prime talk about it he wants J to go number one and I think they're going to try their hardest to get him to go number one they're they're going to they're going to shoot for stats um and so that's great news if you're Travis Hunter who's coming back if you're Jimmy horn who's coming back who's pretty solid or if you're uh will Shepard who comes in from Vanderbilt and who's a pretty solid receiver as well so I mean they've got a solid little tandom of receivers there for shider Sanders to throw to so that's something to to like right there now in terms of their offensive line man I mean you'll notice I mean with Colorado transfer portal transfer portal I mean like on on lines of scrimmage they were all over the place in the transfer portal offensive line in particular they bring in Justin Myers from UTP uh he grades out pretty well and then they have a bunch of rotational guys who are going to be either transfers or were there last year but didn't like play much or didn't do very well um and so this offense of line is a little bit of an enigma to me like they it's really hard to discern what they are going to be with all these transfers uh I would say that I think they can't be as bad as they were last year right right cuz their offensive line was pretty bad last year um and I'm thinking that it has the potential to be maybe like average if not slightly below average this year we'll see but if they even get average offensive line play we're looking at a pretty solid offense here from Colorado so that's one thing to really look at right here I look at the defense man and like the whole depth of this defense including some of the starters are like all transfers it's insane like a it's a complete overhaul on the defensive side of the ball um look you bring in tackle shidi noono from Houston really like that get you get a defensive end from Arizona State and BJ green who grades out really well you get Deon Hayes from pit who grades out really well and then you've got a lot of other uh pieces on that D line as well who grade out well who are considered depth this D line is going to be the strength of this defense they're pretty dang good actually I really like this defensive line a lot and I think they can be very disruptive in Big 12 play they get Jaylen uh Jaylen Wester from FAU who grades out well but he's not even a projected starter so we'll see what they're doing there in the middle linebacker spot and then over at corner man I mean you got Travis Hunter you got Preston Hodge coming in from Liberty who grades out like basically almost like Elite Preston hodj and then you've got DJ McKenna coming in for Oklahoma State who is one of their better corners and then you've got shalow Sanders returning so I mean Shu this I mean I don't know about Robert Livingston as the coordinator but the talent on this defense is there like this the de the talent on this defense has the potential to be a top five defense in the Big 12 I think um and then if you get good offensive play I mean Colorado could very well be a pretty formidable team do I think they'll win the Big 12 no but I think they'll be formidable um and they'll definitely give some people some games they start the season with North Dakota State I think they win that North Dakota State's no pushover but I think they win that game then we go at Nebraska we'll see what that one looks like their non-conference is actually pretty tough shoot because you do get North Dakota State you get out in Nebraska and then you get out of Colorado state which is basically a rivalry um and so it's not going to be easy I think maybe you go two and one in that stretch worst case scenario you go one- two I think you beat Colorado State North Dakota State I expect you to win but maybe the Buffs get you but being at home I'm going to say conservatively here they go two- one in noncon then we go off we play Baylor and you're at home season uh conference opener and you and I both mentioned I mean like Baylor you know not as good as they once were one of those teams that's on the lower end of the Big 12 this year if you're going to win some games I do like them to be a notch above Baylor I lean to Colorado winning that game uh especially at home you go at UCF will'll see man I mean if this defense really does put it together if Robert Livingston gets this defense of going they could have stand a fight and chance against UCF you get a bye-week to go at K State that's kind of key man because you get a bye to prepare for every Johnson and K State and if your defense is firing on all cylinders again this could actually be a pretty interesting game it could be upset potential then you go at Arizona between K State and Arizona you're either going to go one and one or 0 and2 you get Cincinnati I think you beat Cincy you go on a byee to get at Texas Tech so that's really nice too you get a bye for K State and Tech two teams that are going to be kind of tough on your schedule but if you're clicking on both sides of the ball you could be playing pretty well at this point then you get Utah at Kansas which we mentioned at Kansas late in the season could be an advantage be for the same reason we mentioned that Colorado late season could be an advantage for some teams cuz the quarterback situation just one one being an injury one being a sit out which will it be shter Sanders if it's not going their way this late in the season shter Sanders might op to sit out and train for the draft um versus you know Kansas with you know Jaylen Daniels who can't never stay healthy for a full season so that's really interesting and then if Colorado is firing at all cylinders and they go to play they go to uh play Oklahoma State at their home there's a chance they could beat the pokes there so it just depends on what it looks like at the end so I think this team is definitely good enough to go bowling this year at least from a talent perspective will they put it together on the defense of side of the ball I don't know if I trust Robert Livingston as a DC that's kind of the thing that's making me nervous about this pick but I'm going to go ahead I'm going to go over on Colorado I'm going to do it with low confidence I think they can go six and six maybe even seven and five over on Colorado at 5 and a half yeah I'm going to be honest I was a little surprised to see this line come in at only five and a half uh Caesars may be the low number here of all the sports books but 5 and a half it just feels like it's baiting you isn't it it just feels like you like take the over they're going bowling uh which we know that and the sports books know that you're going to have a ton of people betting on this so it just very interesting um but yeah man I share the same optimism I mean let's just let's just let's just call it like we see it like you have a first round pick quarterback on this team I mean how often you see a team with a first round pick at quarterback not even make a bowl game I feel like you got to be pretty incompetent to to not make a bowl game just with a first round pick at QB but of course you know they might be the outliers there you know Travis Hunter I thought this was interesting the receiving core I thought kind of overrated last year Travis Hunter graded out as the only plus value wide receiver last year um they did add obviously multiple starters in the portal that's going to change they're they're loaded up at receiver now this year same thing with the running back room my my thing with the offensive line is I know a lot of people are saying the offensive line last year is terrible y y y well if you really look at the metrics they weren't that bad okay they weren't great but they weren't that bad the difference is the reason why you think their offensive line is terrible is because shor's pading his stats by taking sacks all the time if you go back and watch Colorado games you look at shador and you're just like how many times do I see shador Sanders in the pocket and I'm like dude throw the ball away or like any other quarterback throws the ball away and he doesn't he just sits there and takes the sack and that that shouldn't be counted against the offensive line in fact I think the offensive line you you could you got to grade them based off of their rushing ability their rushing metrics rather than their pass metrics because of quarterbacks like shador who hang onto the ball longer that that's not really indicative of the offensive line in my opinion yeah there are some o lines that that can't you know block the pass rush as well but if you have a good quarterback he should be able to get the ball out and just not sit there and take sacks and make your offensive line look bad so if you look at the Met you look at the guys they brought in you look at the guys they had last year I just don't think it's going to be more of the same and shador is going to take his sacks it it doesn't really matter uh who they brought in on the offensive line so that's that's my say on that side of the ball but if you look at the defensive side the defensive line yeah of course you already talked about it they're going to get better they loaded they brought in both loads of talent along the defensive line I really like that upfront but as far as the rest of the defense I think you know the defensive line should be a lot better and then this secondary is got to be probably would you say the secondary is one of the best in the Big 12 it's probably one of the best in all of college football I think you can make looks pretty dang good yeah you can make the argument this is one of the best secondaries in all of college football let alone the Big 12 so I like what I'm seeing on defense in terms of improving I think they will improve from 98th overall and schedule justed efficiency on that side of the ball even with Robert Livingston being an unknown as a play caller so yeah man I I agree this team is is better especially on defense and I think they are a little bit better on offense with shador coming back as quarterback the thing is this schedule and this non-conference slate is pretty tricky so my model believe it or not has 6.3 wins for Colorado so my model is actually saying this is an overplay for Colorado but if you look at the schedule it is tricky it's definitely not one of the easier Big 12 schedules especially that back end I mean what we got six out of your final seven games are against all of the top teams in the Big 12 Kansas State Arizona Texas Tech Utah Kansas and Oklahoma State I mean unless I'm missing somebody maybe Iowa State you could were missing but other than that that's like that's like six of the top seven teams in the Big 12 right there I mean that's a tough back half of the schedule um but the model's still saying that Colorado can get to a bowl game here and it's got to be done with with wins up front here with North Dakota State and the thing with North Dakota state is when I when I plug in the wind totals on my model I don't I don't have FCS data so what I've been doing is usually I just give an automatic plus one if you play an FCS team which usually they are just an easy win but with North Dakota State I'm like that's not just an easy win so I gave Colorado a 75% chance to beat North Dakota State because North Dakota state is a team that if you plug them right into like the G5 if you plug North Dakota State into like the Mountain West they' be consistent yeah they'd be a consistent Mountain West Contender every year they'd be one of the better G5 programs at the FBS level so I view that as like playing a pretty decent G5 team that's not that's not a complete um guaranteed win at Nebraska is tricky because my model actually likes Colorado over Nebraska but the model's also pretty low on Nebraska it's probably if I had to guess it's probably a good thing maybe that they get them early because rayola is still settling in I mean that's only it's going to be a second career game the thing is it is at Nebraska so that's going to be tough but that's that's going to be must-watch TV right there I cannot wa for that game with the true freshman five star and then shador Sanders and Colorado coming in and then Colorado State I mean should have lost them last year I mean Colorado state had you had you beat last year so it's it's tough I look at the schedule and the difficulty of it is offset by the fact that I do like the the team getting better this year and my model's telling me 6.3 wins you know what s I originally had under because I was like there's just so much down potential here the back end of the schedule is so tough and if they hang up the cleats at any point in the back end of that schedule I mean they're going to lose all those games so those are all the tougher teams in the Big 12 but on the same token this is one of the last teams we covered on I go and look at the big 12 and all the over unders I have I have so many unders and I don't have that many overs and I was like you know what this could come somewhere I was like I got to have an over because I can't just have all these unders everywhere because somebody has to win those games mathematically and you know what I flip-flopped and I was like oh I'll just give Colorado the over because my model's saying it's an overplay screw it I'm I'm flipping back to the under I was under I went over and now I'm flipping back to the under because uh yeah screw it I I can't have us both go over on Colorado and if uh if this downside plays out like it does like I think it could um this team might not even make a bowl game so we talked about that sh if if things don't go their way early season I mean there's a chance that come late season you know shadur Sanders is sitting out saying screw it I'm preparing for the draft I mean I'm just trying to think of let let's say realistically here what at what point in the year do you think Colorado realistically is at a point where they are like yeah we are not in Big 12 Championship contention anymore which means you're not contention I think if they lose that Utah game that at that point they're probably going to have a couple other losses baked in there at that point I think that Utah game would be an elimination yeah and let's say let's say that Utah game is an elimination that probably means you got that one loss maybe you lost to Texas Tech and then you probably lost to at least one of Arizona or Kansas state if not both so that's like already three or four losses at that point and then who's to say that they who's to say that they took care of business against Nebraska I mean that's that's kind of a tossup Nebraska could end up being a pretty good team and secondly look at UCF they got to go at UCF in the bounce house my model actually is UCF favored in that game I think UCF is a quietly decent team that could beat them for sure I mean even by the time they play Utah they could have like six losses worst case scenario I think if they already have six losses by the time they play Utah shadur is probably not playing in that game so yeah so I'm like I'm looking at this and I'm like even before the Utah game if if things do not go well the cleats might have been hung up at this point yeah it's it's a tough back half of the schedule and I just I don't like the way that those scheduling Dynamics work out personally so screw it I'm going under we couldn't both go over on the Buffs okay last but Utah certainly not least Utah the UTS our final Big 12 team here and you can make an argument they are the best team in the Big 12 going to this season they are the favorite according to the sports books going into this year although Al be it very slightly Kyle wittingham is in his 20th season at Utah can you believe it man this is going to mark two decades that Kyle Whittingham has been at Utah just Whittingham and Gundy man hired the same Year Ron this very similar program both very successful I mean I'm telling you they're just clones of one another planted at different schools and it seems almost symbolic that in their their two decade anniversary at their both at both of their schools that they end up uh joining in the same conference and playing each other playing each other yeah in the conference opener so I just think it's very symbolic for many reasons but yeah I mean Utah is just a a staple of consistency success and and arguably one of the best development programs in college football if not the best development program in college football over the last decade or so and now they joined the Big 12 a conference where they definitely are one of the top dogs going into it um right off the jump they went eight and five last year a little bit of a a disappointing season I would say I mean of course cam Rising was out all of last year so that you had going against you and also the Pack 12 had one of its best seasons in in a long time we talked about it this was that was a pretty good Pack 12 Conference last year probably the second best conference in football last year you could make an argument they were close to the best so they had a tough League last year and didn't have many things go their way as far as health and whatnot but they still won eight games and now cam Rising I don't know how but he is eligible for an eighth season college football somebody tell me how that makes sense I just got to say I don't know how that makes any sense but what he's seon I I say screw it let him play until he's 30 like I mean is he I'm I'm not kidding I think he's 25 right he's got to he's got to be he's either like he's either like an like 24 or he's he's got to have be turning 25 at some point in this year like that's if you're 25 pretty old playing college I'll just have to Google it on the Fly here for all we know he may be 26 he's 25 years old he is 25 just yeah I I wasn't exaggerating yeah I mean so you got a 25-year-old quarterback coming back I mean that's probably a good thing but Zan I'll I'll let you take it away take us away on the X's and O's the ins and outs of this Utah UT roster I mean I love Utah man I mean there there's I just have so much respect for that program M Whittingham I mean they've had so much consistency over there I love Morgan Skyy over there the defensive coordin who is basically named the head coach in Waiting uh for whenever you know Whit decides to hang it up if Whit ever decides to hang it up um but I that was that was pretty smart by the Utah brass to kind of get Morgan that uh that uh title cuz otherwise you already know there were definitely some piranhas in the water circling around him trying to poach him around uhing Riley lck Riley was probably one of them yeah one of them yeah and so that's why they had to offer him something again to stay so good for them very smart move by the Utah brass my my concern here Shu with Cam Rising is that he hasn't played in such a long time is he going to be act how long is it going to take him to get re acclimated into playing at a high level of football like yes you're taking reps and practice and doing all these things but it doesn't translate to the real game you've been out of real game action for a long time that kind of concerns me a little bit with Utah now if Cam Rising plays at his full potential he's a dang good player um and Utah is going to be firing all cylinders but my concern here is that what if he's like a shell of himself or even 80% of himself is Utah going to be you know what we expect them to be now just in case cam Rising gets hurt again you got an little insurance policy in Sam hward but I mean he came from calply I believe he was a former five star and he just got bounced around a bunch and then eventually went to Cal paully and then came back up so you've at least got a little insurance policy there running or at quarterback but I don't know man and the running back room isn't really all that great you do have Jaylen Glover who's a 500 yard guy but only in 4.1 yards per carry which is extremely inefficient for college football standards um you're probably going to have a dual like he's probably going to share the backfield there with Michael Bernard and then we look at the wide receiver room they do bring in Dorian singer from USC who had a little stint at USC that didn't really go as planned but he is a former 10,00 yard receiver back from his days at Arizona so Dorian singer is a talented guy who can potentially help cam Rising Elevate this offense then you've got Damen Alford coming in from Syracuse who's a 600 yard guy but otherwise you've got like money parks and you've got a few other guys here guys that really need to step up and and you know and just really like help out in this offense you need more than just these two guys especially when Damen alford's not even a projective starter at this moment just a a rotational guy so that is a little bit concerning for me there's nothing that really sticks out for me truly there so we definitely I don't know man there's just so much about Utah so so many question marks but the thing that I keep looking at is their coaching and it keeps making me like think like I don't like these things that I'm seeing but I do know that Wht Andy lwig all these people know what they're doing you kind by default yeah exactly so it kind of just gives me the benefit of the doubt even though I don't really like what I see on paper it really just it it just it just boggles me man it kind of like has me fighting my own demons here and then the offensive line I think is going to be at least an average unit maybe even slightly below average their offensive line doesn't grade out too great um but we'll see they do have some returning snaps there I think it can at least be an average unit defensive line um they lost Jonah Ellis to the NFL it's kind of a big loss um nobody really grades well on that defensive line but I don't know man it's Utah they they coach really well Morgan scall is had a top 15 defense last year in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency that's with great reason one of the best DCS in the entire nation I think they can do something with that on the back end though you do return linebackers uh Lander Barton and Karine Reed really like their linebackers they have really solid unit there for stopping runs and you know and disrupting passes you also look though at the secondary they lost two DBS to the NFL Sho and I I do know with Utah they develop really well like they they constantly put DBS in the NFL uh but nonetheless that's got to hurt a little bit you do return uh zamaya vaugh who grades out pretty well and you bring in Keenan Johnson from Georgia Tech I do like you replacing that spot at the corner um but we' just got some inexperience from the safeties and they're going to have to step up a little bit but I have faith in it man like even like with most teams I would look at that and I would be like oh inexperience at safeties uh I don't know how I feel about that but Utah is one of those teams I look at and I'm like inexperienced like safeties no they're experienced they've been in the Utah system they just haven't gotten to like the game time you know uh and I fully trust Morgan scall like I really do and this is why I'm really struggling Sho because I was looking at this and I was thinking what if this was like Minnesota or something this wasn't Utah with this Utah coaching staff what would I think of this team and the truth would be I would not be high on this team if if it were a different coaching staff a different team but the fact that this is this is Utah and this is the Utah Utes there's there's you know dang well they're going to be a good football team man it's the same as Kansas State I think we had we ran into the same issue with K State where a lot of the players individually didn't grade the best but as a unit as playing as a unit together their metrics were a lot better uh especially on the defensive side of the ball and that that's just coaching and we both know K Utah K State A+ in coaching and that absolutely now Utah was outside the top 60 in terms of offensive efficiency last year which is a little bit concerning um but that was because they're starting backup quarterbacks all year that that is true but if you get some cam Rising I expect you to go back up obviously but the question is how far does Cam Rising Elevate you sh we were talking about some of these other Big 12 teams and how some of them are very well-rounded some of them are top 30 on both offense and defense so if you're trying to win the League here you're going to need to be a well-rounded team even if your offense gets better and say you're like 40th in offense is it enough to carry you if you maintain you know a top 20 defense it's going to be hard in some of these games let's look at the schedule Southern Utah is going to be a win Baylor is going to be a non-conference game um so that'll be interesting uh and I think they'll beat Baylor you get Utah State cool easy 3 and0 then you get your big 12 opener in like the the Battle of the the Whittingham versus Gundy like the they're going to have a they're going have the giant 20e Al coach yeah legitimately the great time Alma Moder coach squared man like this is the this is the mere image fighting one another in this game uh the game is at Oklahoma State truth be told um I know it's at Oklahoma State but I would kind of lean with Utah in this game only because Oklahoma State always likes to drop something early season and I think this would probably be where they like to do that um I would lean Utah in this game then they go play Arizona I think between Oklahoma State and Arizona I think they're going to drop one of those sh I honestly do I don't think they they win both of those if they do this over is secure uh but I think they're going to lose one of those games and they'll come into this bye at four- one which is pretty solid then you're going to go off the bye you're going to play at Arizona State you're going to slaughter Arizona State and you're going to play TCU at home which is nice because this is one of those more more close match kind of games and you're going to need that home field advantage that Utah gets it's really hard to beat Utah at home um and that's why um that's why I'm going to give them the win here against TCU uh you go at Houston should win that you get a B we to prepare for BYU you don't need the bwe prepared for BYU but you're going to you're going to get it anyway and you're going to beat him uh then you're going to go at Colorado which it depends on Colorado season if Colorado has an outside chance of making it you know to the Big 12 Championship they're going to play you hard in this game and you and I me we both like what they have on the defensive side of the ball and uh Colorado does have you know the ability to potentially have a good offense this year too they could be sneaky but I still lean Utah in that game and then you have Iowa state who's tough and at UCF to end the season so those are two really tough games right there and then Shu there is this um I believe you brought this up last year that Utah is a much different team when they play away from home and I think that could very much be the case if they're going at UCF late season now you're lucky in the Bounce House late season just screw scams uh that screams like a nightmare right there it does that seems like a trap and starting at Oklahoma State I know the Utah fans are going to travel well for that one but like you've got a lot of tricky um away games here but I will say I really like that they get TCU and Iowa State at home and Arizona at home three of your tougher Big 12 draws you get at home and Utah is really tough to beat at home so that is really key um for your win total here but my thing is their win totals at n and a half shoe I really like Utah but I'm kind of scared of like a cam Rising either just not playing up to his potential because he's been out for so long or even cam Rising just getting hurt again and then we're stuck with Sim hu and even if that were the case Utah would still be quite formidable but they're not going to be you know a cam Rising Utah team I can't believe I'm going to do this shoe but I'm gonna go under with one confidence point on Utah I think nine and three is more likely than 10 and two man I did not see that coming but I think Utah can still go nine and three and make the big toll championship of course yes so I'm surprised I did not think that that was coming so I felt like listening to you I felt like uh I was reliving about 30 minutes ago when I or not 30 minutes ago like two hours ago when I was uh reviewing this team and uh because I had the same exact thought process I'll start with the defense 14th overall last year in defensive efficiency you got nine starters returning off that defense I mean this defensive line should remain as one of the top defensive lines in the Big 12 it would have been one of the top in the Big 12 last year it should be one of the top this year even with the loss of Jonah Ellis linebacker room is absolutely loaded I love the linebacker room it's loaded with depth a lot of plus value players there it's one of the best linebacker rooms in the league if not it one of the best in college football and as far as the secondary yeah the grades not necessarily the best but I would say that you have to trust the process here I do think it's still going to be a very good secondary uh zamaya vaugh especially I think was a very high Value Plus Corner he's going to be back I really do like what they have um on this defense and I think that this defense could jump into the top 10 and with Morgan scall calling the plays of course per usual this could end up being a top 10 defense at the end of the year and they're going to have some fun matchups against some good quarterbacks like Noah ffid and then shador Sanders um potentially on the schedule so I'm looking forward to that and then as far as the offense I'm glad you brought this up because I was going to kind of belabor this points uh about cam Rising like I I have a healthy skepticism here he didn't play a single snap Blaster he was hurt I can't recall the last time a guy off the top of my head is there a player that sat out for an entire year at the college level and just immediately lit it up as if like he didn't skip a beat I don't know about the college level no it's it's something that I'm just I'm a little skeptical about and like you said I I don't think cam R is going to fall off the map in terms of his play but I would say you probably get 80 to 90% of Cam Rising a quarterback I don't know if you get the the prime 2022 or prime 2021 version of Cam Rising I don't know if that's what's in store here but if they do get it then that's great obviously for Utah but I I don't know if we're going to get uh the full healthy version of Cam Rising like he did like he was two three years ago so I remain skeptical in that department but just by default having him back you're G to be better at quarterback than you were last year it's still a massive upgrade don't get me wrong in terms of Relativity to last year this offense is going to take a huge jump I could see it end up being a top 30 offense I'll say conservatively even with Rising maybe not necessarily playing up to his Peak potential after a year of sitting out and with the injury but I also do like that they have Brant keithy coming back I know you mentioned that earlier but keithy coming back at tight end I mean that's that that's a great two tight end set there I know they're going a lot of they're going to run a lot of two10 two tight end sets 12-man personnel with Brandt keithy and Landon King who is also a plus value starter there at tight end so that's really continuing the great line of of great tight ends coming out of Utah I think that they got two really good ones as well so there's a lot to like here and as far as the offensive line I just want to point out shout out uh Caleb Lomo reter freshman left tackle showed some upside last year in limited snaps he potential I think to be one of the best offensive linemen on this team and they're putting him in at left tackle as a freshman so I think that uh that's pretty telling right lot of respect yeah that is a lot of respect for Caleb Lomo so look out for him but I think overall defense if if you get uh best case scenario you get the defense inside the top 10 I think best case scenario you get the offense firing inside the top 30 this year if if you get a good game rising and a defense that continues the the Morgan scall way but as far as the schedule so this is the thing that was really killing me here is that this schedule is actually kind of light I would say compared to a lot of the other Big 12 schedules I'd say Utah actually got one of the lighter Big 12 draws I know they got Arizona or Arizona and Oklahoma State on here but I I think that you know they didn't necessarily get the toughest draw you know you got Houston you got Arizona State you got BYU those are right off the bat three of the worst teams in the league and then I know three wins yeah and I know the Baylor game is technically a non-conference game as they're finishing that home un Home non-conference Series but that's still a Baylor Big 12 team that's what probably one of the bottom half teams in the Big 12 so it's really not that tough a schedule and then Utah State um shout out that name of the Rivalry there which by the way I just want to shout out Utah has has the best rivalries or the state of Utah has the best rivalry names in all of college football because you got Utah at Utah State is the is the Battle of the brothers yeah and then you have Utah versus BYU which is obviously the ho War yeah that's what it is that's a bad I love that name that is a badass rivalry name and Shout Out War work in Oran State yeah well they they took that one away because but yeah but yeah the holy war is awesome and uh Battle of the brothers Utah versus Utah State I think that's pretty cool um and so shout out to the Big 12 for finally forcing Utah and BYU to finally play each other in the same conference kind of like how Texas and Texas A&M that needs to be a prot so yeah it absolutely should be a protected rivalry and I don't know why they're not playing on Thanksgiving they don't want to play each other either like it's it's it's funny they hate each other so much they don't want to play but that's the thing like you should the holy war should be the the Thanksgiving week rivalry week like last game of the regular season that should be Thanksgiving every year is Utah versus BYU come on Big 12 what are you doing here um but anyways my model is uh not a fan of the UTS my model has 8.2 wins for Utah in the regular season that's pretty low that's a strong underplay that my model is suggesting and honestly I wonder if potentially it's not necessarily accounting for cam Rising coming back fully that that's the one thing that I'm trying to point at here I'm just like that this the only thing that's got to make sense to me is maybe it's not accounting for Rising sitting out last season and coming back um but it doesn't make sense to me but at the same time I also do have that healthy skepticism like you and I saw this at 9 and a half I see the juice of the over and I see reasons for it it is kind of a trap but I see the reasons for it this schedule is pretty light I mean if you just win one of the Oklahoma state or Arizona games or let's say you win both of those two you're you're win double digit games you know we both really like Iowa State a whole lot but even if you have an Iowa State loss baked in there which which by the way that's a home it's hard to count up like four losses here but that's what my mom saying T is tough but you have TCU at home uh dep we we'll see what Colorado looks like at that point in the year Iowa State can be tough but you're at home but then you go at UCF at UCF could be tough if UCF still have something to play for by that time of the season so we'll see so that's the thing I think those final two games there are actually really tricky because you have Iowa State granted at home but Iowa state is severely underrated in in my opinion you like them a lot too Iowa State's going to be a big 12 Contender this year and then at UCF in the bounce it's on a Friday too by the way so that's a short week you got to travel to the bounce house and that's that's a sneaky that's an upset alert game right there for sure I mean just looking at it so the back end of that schedule is sneaky maybe a little tough but even still like I If Utah truly plays to their strengths you should take care of UCF and you should probably beat Iowa State if you're at home in that game Colorado late in the season probably going to be a good thing you drew you drew BYU ASU and houon Houston that's nice I mean all the most of their tougher games are at home they're the only tougher team that they have a away is is Oklahoma State and it's it's hard for me to do this but I'm GNA tell you Zan I'm GNA go under with with very low confidence granted Oh I thought you were gonna I thought you were teeing the other direction because you're talking about the schedule and how it's so easy and and then like how good the coaching is I mean everything everything you were saying says over but then we're going UND Sho basically mirror images of each other on our two segments because I was listening to everything that you were saying and then you were like at the last second hanging a 180 like wait a minute no I'm going under and I'm like shoot I'm like shoot xan stole my thunder because I was I was saving that for my bit here I was going to end the SE I was going to end the Big 12 with a with a huge uh 180 Utah fans be quite upset with us but I I will say this they are I will say this Utah fans even though we're both going under it doesn't mean that you're not going to be in the Big 12 championship game I I think the Big 12 championship game is going to be between two teams that probably have at least two losses in the conference it's going to be a dog eat dog kind of conference so yeah I I'll end my I'll end this video with two points for Utah fans one if you hit if this you don't hit this win total you only win nine games you go nine and three you probably are still in the Big 12 championship game prob even if things even if things don't even if you don't get the right tie Breakers I mean that would be the only way you don't make the big 12 title game and two I'll say this um now that I've done my assessment on this team my model's telling me this is a low underplay I'm thinking is there a sports book out there where I can get a win total of 10 because if I can get them at 10 I might put some personal money on this because I'm not I'm not buy insurance 10 is push insurance and I'm not buying the the whole cam Rising is going to come back and be a Heisman Contender uh thing so I might put some personal money on that so uh come come at it with me Utah fans let us know in the comments what you guys think but yeah I mean we're we're probably uh we we might be in the minority here because like for instance Phil Steele he has Utah as a national championship Contender which I think is if you win the Big 12 you're technically a national championship Contender because you technically are in the playoff bracket so not not in that sense though not just winning the Big 12 puts you in the playoff as a contender he thinks they legitimately like they can win a couple playoff games and and compete with you know the SEC and the Big 10 top dogs for the national championship he loves Utah and I I don't agree with that but I'm just saying there's other people out here that think Utah is they're really well coached man they are really well coached and that's that's the only thing they're like they're a model of consistency as you said when we started this segment but I don't know about beating up on like or the Ohio State or michigans of the world or theas I don't think they're going to beat the those teams but I mean there're certainly like there's levels to this like you mentioned tiers and they're at the top of their particular tier I agree I put them in the same tier with like Oklahoma State yeah and that's going to be a big one that's going to be that's going to be one that is going to be big for the win totals for both Utah and Oklahoma State yeah I cannot wait for that game and I can't wait for the giant uh 20y year anniversary uh cake that they bring out to the middle of the field there to for Gundy and winingham yeah they absolutely need to do that the uh the model the model success for uh development programs right there facing off in the Big 12 opener all right man that'll conclude the Big 12 this was fun man I Final Predictions & Big 12 Discussion had fun doing this league uh no surprise there this is our bread and butter and now that we've covered this league I will ask you the question here I know we're going long in this video but I know this is tough this is probably going to be the toughest um the toughest guess here but as of right now what is your big 12 championship game and who wins it you know what man I'm going to go with one OG and one newcomer I'm going to go Utah and screw it give me the pokes Utah versus Oklahoma State so you have a rematch of that big 12 opener in week four I do I i' sign up for that um who do you have winning the Big 12 uh I'll say whoever lost the first matchup wins the championship game I like it so I am not going to go chalk here here and I'm going to I'm going to call my shot here and this is not official this is not an official prediction um this subject to change we'll put out our official predictions later but my big 12 championship game is going to be as of right now Iowa state versus Texas Tech that would be interesting because that's like two people that we never see in it really so I I think that there's going to be and keep in mind there are going to be some crazy tie Breakers because of how close these teams are and that that's one thing that big 12 fans and any college football fans the other leagues too just be ready because with the way the leagues are set up and that not everybody plays everybody there are going to be some crazy tiebreaker scenarios and I think every college football fan should read up on their conference's tiebreaker process because there's going to be instances where you have teams that the big for instance the Big 12 is going to have years where it's not putting its best two teams in the championship game because of Simply some crazy head-to-head tie Breakers or some third rung down the ladder tie Breakers strength of schedule all that BS because like half there's 16 teams in the league half these teams don't even play each other or see each other on the field and they're going to be going at it in terms of in terms of tiebreakers for these championship games and we won't know because they haven't played each other and and some teams have played X team some teams have played why I and and a lot of it's going to come down to luck it's simply going to be called tiebreaker luck and I think that's a new term that that we're going to have to start implementing into our vocabulary is it's going to be simply like who who the hell is is locking out with the tiebreakers because it's it's just like flipping rolling dice like I think that's what's going to end up being so my role of the dice is saying that Iowa State and Texas Tech luck out with tiebreakers and they beat out the Utah and the Oklahoma States and the Kansas States Etc Arizona and that's my that's my way too early unofficial Big 12 prediction is Iowa state versus Texas Tech and I have the Iowa State Cyclones and Matt cample winning the Big 12 Conference I'm calling my shot Iowa state is my sleeper team this year for 2024 that one might stick I don't know about Texas Tech for the official what if rco Beck goes down well that's uh that's probably in the toilet but you know what I of these teams yeah I mean especially in this league man like if you're qub back goes down like you you sink to the bottom pretty quickly in this unless you're Oklahoma State cuz I feel like I don't know Alan Bowman might not be the best quarterback like Oklahoma state is one of the exceptions and that's why we're both over on them but if I'm like Arizona you lose faita you don't have delore anymore you're screwed you have Jaylen Daniels he goes down for Kansas Jaylen Daniels goes down no Jason be you're screwed um Kansas State Avery Johnson you don't have a Avery Johnson and will Howard anymore you just have Avery Johnson he gets hurt screwed we could do over and over we do Utah what does what does Utah have behind cam Rising all the guys like Bryson Barnes got Sam yeah but that you're see I'm sorry you're not making the big 12 Championship with Sam hu C Rising gets hurt again Utah down uh I mean who else I what other teams are we missing here TCU man if Hoover goes down yeah uh right I off top of my head I forget who their backup is but I don't think it's anybody that good I mean you say this about like the entire league I think that is that is one reason UCF if KJ Jefferson goes down yes that's a good one because mlan transferred out too Timmy mlan did yeah there's a lot of these teams have like no quarterback Insurance Oklahoma State might be the only team that actually has quarterback insurance this is why like and it comes to like big 12 like some of these lines for like some of these teams that are going to be in competition for like the title I'd be scared to bet because I bet you at least one or two quarterbacks does go down this year um and those are going to be the team and those are going to be the teams who are going to tank on their win total yeah it's going to happen which is why again especially for this league in particular I'm not going to be betting win totals Iowa State I think is an exception I'm betting conference Futures so basically I like to say for instance Iowa State if I'm not going to bet the win total because there's just so much variance here with whether the quarterback it's H or not in this league that I'm going to say I'm going to take the shot 12 to1 that you win the Big 12 championship and hopefully I get to to get to hedge that at the end of the year if you make the title game if they don't then so be it at least I don't have to worry about that um I I like just taking shots like kind of like whack-a-mole like take your shots at a couple conference title Futures but I wouldn't necessarily play Win totals I think win totals is better for leagues like the big 10 and the SEC and the ACC where there's there's huge uh disparities of talent across the top and the bottom of the league so I don't feel comfortable playing win totals here and that's why I think I only have one high confidence play I think in this entire league so that's uh that's the gist of it so all right man we'll uh let's cut it here I know we've gone long in this video hopefully you've enjoyed this uh little discussion here at the end of this video but we have now conquered the Big 12 and there's one power for conference remaining that is the SEC and we will end with the SEC in the remaining three videos and that will be divided up we're going to go geographically East Central and then West to wrap up the SEC and win totals and then we'll start heading out for our predic official predictions on the channel I can't wait to get those out as well so again as always if you're a fan one of these teams leave a comment leave a like let us know your thoughts and opinions in the comments I'm sure Utah fans might have some things to say to us so bring it here bring it here and uh yeah so that's it for the Saturday Scholars Zan and Shu signing out see y'all later and have a great [Applause] day on the M it down so right analysis the target prediction accuracy tiank account on the r [Music] with not here for hot takes just the fact that's get it out snacks and Bs stre for each week college football F joice find what you seek hiden G in the podast world they no more Saturday Scholars and I'm standing tall and tall Saturday schols the kings of the gate Making Waves with the knowledge bring in the F to in each week we stay on track the Saturday Scholars we got your [Music] back the the kings of the game Making Waves with the knowledge bringing the fame tun in each week we stay on track the Saturday Scholars we got your back back [Music] oh get it outy snacks and Sh 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