[ENGLISH] Live news trading 11.09 – Inflation (CPI) – Octa

[Music] my oh [Music] hey everyone welcome back to on new training session which is going to be CPI and a couple of things to discuss as well so let's try to get through as fast as we can about the theory part and then I want to talk about some key levels on S currency majors and yeah a couple couple of traits with the straddles but I think majority of them you know it's it's going to be really hard to actually use the stral strategy so I do want to spend some time to talk about what we are expecting tonight and in terms of the key levels to watch out for immediately after the news Okay so let's get started uh this is news trading session number three and this is going to be our inflation night my name is V injo Let's Get It Started With a quick disclaimer any opinion discussed in this webinar all link to this presentation is provided as a General market commentary and does not constitute investment advice news Trading evolve risk due to high volatility Market reaction to news can be Swift and unpredictable which leads to high trading risk and delays in order execution so be very attentive when determining the volume of your transactions and consider all possible risk factors all right so just quickly a little bit about myself if you never attended my previous sessions before my name is fanjo and I've been a full-time Trader with over 22 years of experience by this year and I'm also a professional trading coach and technical analyst since 2007 in the industry uh my expertise is in the isok Kingo technique and I've also been invited as a guest speaker at trading investing Expo in Australia invest fa in Singapore ATA as well as the apaa conferences which is the Australian technical analyst Association Australian professional technical analyst and I'm also a regular contributor at CNBC Bloomberg as well as BBC UK all right so uh as per usual we're going to go through with the bonuses for participants we're going to show you the promo code that you can use and you should already have access to the private telegram Channel if you registered through the auxus website and or you have attended previous sessions before you should already be in that telegram Channel okay this is a code it's non 2024 you still have a good four months to actually use this code it's expiring on the 31st of December 2024 this is a 100% deposit bonus basically doubling your deposit uh as a b bonus okay there obviously going to be terms and conditions with that bonus so make sure you ask the team what those terms and conditions are and you know it is a good Equity bonus I would say that you can actually use as part of your trading okay all right so uh we'll go through go through some Theory first and obviously we want to talk about what inflation is you know how it's going to affect a lot of the stuff here what's CPI what's PPI what's core inflation we'll go through the live trading itself again as I previously mentioned at the beginning of this session it is going to be a little bit unique so I need to show you some of the key levels that you need to monitor for your trades tonight okay all right so what is inflation inflation is basically the rate at which prices for goods and services rise and obviously inflation is going to continue to rise every year even in periods of deflation we don't actually see a huge drop in inflation like ever you know it's very easy to take a look at how things are compared to what it was 5 years 10 years ago things are a lot more expensive and as the year goes by it's also going to be expens more expensive okay so the most commonly used inflation IND index are going to be your Consumer Price Index your core CPI index and also your PPI and core PPI right so what are those stuff I just talk about so let's take a look at CPI first this is going to be the main data that we are going to dissect tonight so Consumer Price Index is a critical indicator of pricing pressures in the economy it provides here with the gauge of inflation and Forex raders monor the CPI because they can lead to changes in monetary policy conducted by the central bank which can either strengthen or weaken currency against rivals in the market now uh let me pause here for a little bit and the reason why this CPI is actually going to be a little bit unique uh we know the FC is going to be cutting interest rates uh this month right and we know the ECB is going to cut tomorrow so uh a lot of the questions or a lot of the puzzles is is basically out of the market right we know that the you know the global economy uh Global central banks around the world except for Japan obviously because Japan continues to plan to hike interest rates but everyone else is looking at cutting back on the interest rate and the reason for that is inflation has come off uh quite rapidly as well and you know I think the FMC themselves has actually shifted their attention away from in CPI numbers away from the inflation number focusing more on the labor data and that's why we have a we put a lot more importance this month in the labor data which was released last Friday and we all know how the reaction in the market was last Friday it was a little bit unique but it's not unpredict able we actually created a couple of scenarios and actually fall into one of our scenarios which is scenario number two if you're wondering what's going on feel free to come back to that recording which is on Friday all right anyway let's continue uh in terms of the CPI what does the CPI do the CPI measures your cost of living it includes broad range of goods and services purchased by consumer it includes International personal consumption items so items you import into the country is going to be part of that Consumer Price Index scope exclude changes in interest rates or costs right now CPI very simple CPI basically us retailers consumers all right this is how much we're paying for stuff that's the way you look at things okay CPI goes up things that you pay for your basic livings are you know are basically going to go up with it as well um and typically inflation does correlate with a higher standard of living as well so typically with a higher inflation uh in a developed country or developing countries uh we typically see a higher inflation you know things are more expensive in uh developed country for example uh any any country with a higher standard of living is going to have a higher prices and that kind of correlates to the CPI itself now the PPI is basically the produces Price Index this is how much it costs for the producer to produce or provide services to you uh that's basically the cost of business pretty simple right ppi is how much it cost to produce CPI is how much it costs to purchase simple as that the PPI itself it measures real growth and output it includes items produced for personal consumption it does not include Imports and it has Services uh with prices including an interest rate component so somehow a part of the interest rate component is actually factored into the PPI and this is the reason why we actually don't focus a lot on the PPI we focus a lot more on the CP right the buying power from the consumer that's basically the main focus if people has more buying power they are going to push inflation up if people are getting paid more if salary goes up wages goes up that could put push inflation up as well and obviously PPI does play a huge part as well you know if if it costs a lot more to produce something it could drive inflation up and one of the main reason why inflation was so high postco it was basically on the back of that shortages uh which is the supply chain uh issues that they have during the pandemic that kind of push production up okay all right so that's CPI that's PPI so what is the core inflation core inflation is basically core CPI it's basically CPI numbers that exclude those from food and Energy Services all right it's basically CPI minus foods and energy sectors in terms of the foods that we're referring to that's being excluded this is fresh food produced right because obviously fresh froods are going to be seasonal you know vegetables fruits they're going to be seasonal uh if there's a long drought for example then obviously prices could be inflated so there's a lot of volatility in there and obviously energy sectors you know all prices gas prices are going to be included in there again geopolitical tension could push prices up it could cost short-term volatility so core CPI basically looks at prices excluding all this volatility it is what we also call the underlying inflation right so so again core inflation is determining uh determined using the Consumer Price Index and we'll cover a few of the stuff here that we're going to talk about in terms of what we're viewing in terms of the CPI as well as the core CPI all right hey Daniel welcome back good to be back after a long break um hey everyone I don't know is there a lag I don't know Albert is saying here is everyone all experiencing a leg from my side that's all green I'm going full speed right now I don't have any connection issues but let me know if there's any issues because you guys have been a little bit too quiet here but yeah let me know if there are issues because we don't want to be in a situation I think last week we had a little bit of a lag right we had a little bit of a trouble connecting to the YouTube stream and um I think that was last Friday we had a little bit of a problem so hopefully tonight everything is going to be crystal clear okay but let me know if the team can also let me know if everything is going through okay then yeah I'll just going I'm just going to continue okay so let's talk about the datas that we are expecting tonight okay so these are the numbers that we are expecting let's take a look at the inflation rate first which is the year on-year inflation rate and that's going to be there right previous number was at 2.9% the market is expecting you know a pretty huge drop off right uh to 2.6% so we're looking at 0.3% being off compared to last month um that's going to be a rapid drop and if we do see that uh inflation dropped down to 2.6% then yeah 100% guarantee that the fomc is going to be cutting interest rate on the 18th of September and here's the thing without the inflation number tonight we know that they are going to be cutting interest rates on 18th of September right now again as I previously mentioned on Friday projected rate cut it's 25 basis points that has been 100% fully pric in into the market obviously we have an inflation rate that's below consensus 2.5% is enough to trigger the market into thinking and start pricing in for a 50 basis points cut on the 18th of September which is going to be next week exactly 7 days from now okay so it's not it's not super hard to kind of figure things out and what if the inflation number comes in above 2.6% well the forecast here is up to 2.7% I think you know uh plus or minus 0.1 or 0.2 it's not going to cause a lot of issues I don't think it's going to be a problem if the inflation rate remains below 3% the upside surprise is if inflation rate tonight comes in higher at 3% that's going to be higher than last month at 2.9% if we get a re a reading of 3% then expect the US doll to strengthen not because uh the the FC is not going to cut interest rate they are still going to cut interest rate even if the inflation number goes up tonight they are still going to cut interest rate but uh do keep in mind last week I I think from two weeks ago um that 25 basis points cut has been fully priced in so a lot of Traders right now out there are actually trying to price in that 50 basis points cut I think the market right now in terms of the uh fed watch tools that we have here is that 30% are skewing towards that 50 basis points cut and the number remains at 27 to 30% so uh if we have a higher inflation number we could get this 30% being taken out of the market that could actually boost the US dollar in the short term so just keep that in mind that would be uh the exception that we have for this week okay core inflation rate year onye is expected to remain stable at 3.2% no changes on the core inflation so the underlying inflation remains at 3.2% and this is is going to be what the FC is referring to anyway because they look at the core inflation it's higher than the CPI number and you know they still decided that yes it's time that they're going to be cutting interest rates so again as I said you know if inflation does go up a little bit it doesn't change what the fomc is actually going to do it does change a couple of things maybe the 30% that starts to price in for that 50 basis points that might get taken away if inflation goes up but if inflation comes down lower than what the consensus is let's say the core inflation dropped down to 3.1% or 3% and the headline inflation or the headline CPI the year on-ear CPI drops down below 2.6% at 2.5% then you'll see the market go out today they'll start pricing in for that interest rate cut you're going to see risk assets rally you're going to see the US dollar being pressured down okay so I think that would be the surprises that we have one thing that we are not quite sure of and would actually fall into um the more difficult way to kind of react immediately to the news release is if inflation comes in as per consensus that's going to be really hard to kind of figure out uh because then we need to look at a breakdown you know what's losing uh you know what's decreasing in terms of the inflation and stuff like that which is something that I don't expect you guys to be able to do but you know that's something that we need to look um should we have an equal consensus okay all right so this is the current breakdown that we have here again uh what could it be slowing things down uh obviously if we take a look at the whole thing uh gasoline prices that's expected to decline rents and car insurance could sign could show sign of slowing again expected for this one to continue to fall off current current consensus is going to be at 2.6% previously at 2.9% this is your the chart that we have here ever since March we have seen a steady drop 3.5 3.4 3.3 3 2.9 tonight we're expecting a drop to 2.6% this is a core inflation rate and you can take a look at the core inflation rate it has been steadily dropping down the past 12 months you know I think exactly uh one year ago we were at 4.3% right now we are at 3 .2% So within a year the cor inflation has dropped down 1% that's a lot okay so uh a couple of breakdowns as well what are we expecting to to see in terms of the core inflation here um let me see the what's the breakdown Personal Care up 3.2 versus 3.4 um not really much of a change in terms of the core CPI I'll be honest with you so this one here being steady at 3.2% I think that's about the expected rate okay this is the change of rate per month and obviously last month even though we have a drop in the headline inflation which is the year onye inflation number the monthly actually start to pick up it's not that it's actually starting to pick up if you take a look at this you know where where the level is per month it is at about 0.2 0.33% so we're not expecting anything major or anything like that it's just that May and June we have a significant drop in terms of the rate there okay okay so let me switch on to the Chart we have uh a lot of time tonight and which is a good progress uh I want to talk about a couple of things and obviously number one it's going to be the dollar Index itself so this is the dollar Index as you can see with the dollar Index here it is kind of struggling a little bit this is still in line with our Outlook from last week that we have that resistance at 102 that's still going to cap for the progress uh and in terms of whether or not the US dollar correction was done and over with what I mentioned from last week was it's not quite done yet we could actually see um the US dollar still kind of maintaining their position uh we see a little bit of a drop off today I think that's on the back of the dollar Yen because this morning Bank of Japan has already mentioned that yeah you know our interest rate is still low I think there's a little bit more room for us to hike interest rates that going of pull down um the dollar Index here a little bit but you can see here uh it's actually kind of stuck between 23.6 and 38.2 in terms of the FIB retracement on The Daily time frame all right let's focus on intraday key levels D Yen this one here it's it's a huge uh glare in the eye uh take a look at this box here that was actually the August low and if we drag that August low obviously we saw that bounce happen um early September you know it kind of pushed back up and then Market just went down below it again today so let me just zoom in a little bit all right see if I can zoom in a little bit closer all right so right now we're back testing that level and this is where it's really more of an isore right the support one uh at 14183 around 14190 to 142 that's good basically going to be our resistance that needs to be tested for this one to continue to downside if the market does recover Beyond 14190 142 tonight there could be a strong possibility the US dollar could actually rally up but if it fails here tonight right we are at that resistance level this is previous support now being tested as resistance this is going to be a confirmation to a lot of traders that you know what the Japanese y could actually strengthen a little bit more the US dollar could actually fall so the dollar Japan is at a critical level at this point in time unfortunately we're not able to straddle the market here because we don't have that Corridor of volatility so back to Old School analysis on this one here right now it's testing uh previous support as resistance this is going to be our main focus for tonight it is currently stuck exactly at support one um on The Daily pivot and do keep in mind today the market has actually broken below support two if it fails at support one today then it will come back to support two and there's going to be a huge probability it could actually run to support three and that's actually a huge distance that's the anticipated potential move that we have here that's still about 150 Pips in terms of push to the downside however if it does break above 142 and maintain that position above 142 it will rally back up towards the pivot that's going to be about 14270 uh 14275 and Beyond this I actually wouldn't take that R up I would be waiting up there for a potential failure at about 14250 to 14275 make sure your stop loss is going to be at 143 this is going to be a scenario where we could actually use our limit order if Market does break above 142 but we'll take a look at the do Yen back here once uh the news is released okay the next one it's going to be the EUR USD and for the EUR USD um this one here is looking a little bit exhausted do keep in note here that this is currently stuck at the hok cloud price is actually inside the HM Cloud it is actually not a wise decision to start having a position right now but we can straddle the EUR USD tonight there is room for us to actually straddle the EUR USD so we're going to be employing our Bice and sell up order on the EUR USD I'll be doing that in the next three minutes this one here not a huge problem um what I'm seeing here is that there could actually be a higher probability it could actually fail as well so this is where it gets tricky right because the do Yen seems like it's at a resistance it's testing previous support but the EUR USD looks exhausted as well maybe it could fail right we don't know it's actually inside hm Cloud it could transition above that once price closed above 1.150 you know we could see a run towards 1.17 um but it's going to be really highly dependent whether or not the market is actually going to price in that 50 basis points if the number comes in lower right at 2.5% or the core inflation drops tonight then yeah we could potentially see a a break to the upside for the EUR USD because then everyone is going to start pricing in for 50 basis points and that is going to be the only criteria for tonight for the EUR USD to actually start railing up like crazy to the upside okay there limitation obviously because if you take a look at how thick that HMO cloud is immediate push higher is still going to be kept at resistance three exactly at 1.17 and that's also going to be the upper range of the isimu cloud so we have a rather thick resistance for the EUR USD Pine USD is also inside the hok cloud is actually uh it has been maintaining a position inside the hok cloud throughout the whole day uh it is bouncing off pivot 1 uh 13080 all right if if it's able to move back up above 1.31 then we could actually see this one rally up a little bit higher but there are still going to be resistance at on the upper s side there we got resistance to at 13140 up to 13150 that's still going to cap uh resistance on the pound USD if it does break below pivot level then we'll come back to 13050 1.350 is in line with our daily major support and we need that level to be broken otherwise we're not going to be able to see for the push lower on the pine USD but you know if if we have uh a good number that's going to be boosting the US dollar even if the pound USD fall we still have 1.30 as our major major critical support level okay so that's the stuff that we have here you know we can straddle the EUR USD we might be able to do that on the pwn USD as well but it's really tough to look at that scenario okay the next thing it's obviously goal a lot of you guys are going to be looking at Gold we are unfortunately not able to straddle gold and I'll move on to the mt4 and I'll show you what's going on here especially for gold this this is actually moving in a little bit of a channel that moves to the upside so we're not able to straddle the gold at this point in time so we will come back and reassess the situation for gold after our trades tonight okay o USD and New Zealand USD this is still in range we have that Corridor volatility and this is going to be the first one that we are actually going to place our buy stop order first okay so the buy stop for this one here is going to be at 6685 all right just leave bit about 10 Pips away from that high there and also 10 Pips down so about 6635 for our cell stop that should do for the oie USD this one here is you know I think this is you know a pretty stable currency at this point in time this one here is okay we have the corridor of volatility and in fact if you attended yesterday's session we already talked about the corridor of volatility the all broke out of the corridor volatility that we have yesterday and for today we don't have that Corridor volatility because the doen is you know not really moving in a sideways Market condition the EUR USD we do have a little bit of a range all right we want to focus on 1.150 to be broken so you know extend this a little bit right we are going to have our buy stop slightly above 1.10 60 and in terms of our sell stop you do want to have it a little bit lower and I'm not going to go onto the 50-minute time frame because if I to go into the 50 minute time frame uh we do have a smaller Corridor of volatility that's going to be at 1.035 so it's very close to the current price and we could be whip Sal by that and uh we don't want that okay so we are going to place our Bop a little bit lower for the EUR USD so we're focusing on the early time frame for the EUR USD uh and a USD there is a smaller Corridor of volatility if you want to uh you can get into the market earlier about 20 Pips at 1.035 but I'm afraid that that could be a whipsaw if we place it too close it would just whips saww the whole thing right pound USD uh this one here we don't really have the corridor of volatility even on the - minute time frame it's really small but it's kind of below that 1.31 it's so close to the psychological price level this one here is actually going to be really tough uh if you want to kind of cage the whole thing so uh if you do want to do that for the pine USD you can do so and that would be at 1 Point uh I know the buy stop is going to be uh above 1.31 and for the sell stop you can have it uh just slly below 13075 it's very close to the current price though uh it's within a 25 pip range you know that that could be a huge possibility for a a whip saw that could happen so uh feel free to have it but just consider the risk for the pine USD okay so doen we're not able to do that we'll just wait on the doen o USD and Euro USD we have our positioning New Zealand USD we have a little bit of corridor volatility as well if you want to but it's looking a little bit choppy so make a choice whether it's going to be New Zealand USD or um o USD but uh for New Zealand USD you definitely want to have this lower below 1 6135 right you want to have it at 6135 for your sell stop in terms of your buy stop you do want to have it a little bit higher uh maybe above 6155 okay so that's the positions that we have there uh news is going to get released anytime soon but yeah if you have any questions any requests or anything let me know uh but in the meantime we're just going to be waiting for that news to be released okay should see uh quite an immediate reaction and let's see the breakdown off the news as well okay soan will wait gold will wait uh your USD you can straddle this the pound USD it's a small range it's up to you whether you want to straddle this you know there a huge possibility we could actually get whip s because the range is just so small in upon USD but uh it is beyond actually I'm just going to adjust this slightly all right an extra five pip 13105 all right we got our sell triggered and I think inflation might be coming in a little bit hot let me see no initial reactions so what happens here uh New Zealand USD is triggered so I need to cancel New Zealand USD uh buy pwn USD buy needs to be cancelled all right so it's super volatile right now um New Zealand us everything is done done done no buy stop was triggered at least we don't have a whipsaw okay uh CPI is reported it is lower the general number it's lower let me just pull up my data here what do we have inflation rate is at 2.5% uh that's lower than what the market is expecting cor inflation flat at 3.2% um so it it is actually going to be um I I don't like the current positioning if we have a little bit of a positive please get out um of the current situation okay the number is that we have a lower inflation number so we could actually see a little bit of a boost on P USD and Euro USD in fact uh I would limit this if the total goes to about 50 60 Pips we need to clear it off but we'll see how it goes let's see everything else monthly rate for the core inflation does pick up 0.2% to 0.3% um the data is not actually it is actually not mix in terms of the headline inflation I think we have a significant drop uh every other number that we have here is also a huge drop as well so I'm not liking this trade uh let's you know close out and we'll analyze manually uh feel free to you know if you have a profitable position if you can move it to break even feel free to do so but right now I'm really more concerned about the US dollar potentially weak and we'll go back to the main chart uh I don't think it's really bad uh at this point in time let me just let me see uh the breakdown here what's the current breakdown that we have here okay export prices are are up export prices are up fot inflation Remains the Same import prices are slightly up not really much I'll be honest with you okay so yeah um let's flip the trade uh we are actually going to go long on EUR USD and we're going long on pound USD Doan I'll leave this one B uh for gold here not quite sure I think we can get a lower price for gold I think we can go get a little bit of a lower price on gold all right for the EUR USD you really don't want to um you don't really want your stop loss to be too far at this point in time right uh we will go with 1.10 slightly below that 1.10 90 should be more than enough fundamentally this should get the market into more of a risk appetite move and let's see for the pound USD P USD is actually not that hard we have that low at 13050 we can use that 1.350 we want to have it a little bit lower about 13040 and that's pretty much it all right if you got stopped out it's fine uh it's not really huge risk at this point in time uh I think for the pound it's about 32 Pips uh EUR USD as well I don't think it's actually that huge uh it's much bigger it's about 40 40 Pips but yeah lift you know leave a little bit of a room to go on the Euro USD and P USD um o USD again I wouldn't be short on this one here New Zealand year the a little bit of an excessive move here but again if the hourly doesn't close below this low here that's about 6125 we got nothing in fact we'll take a look at that as potential bounce gold is the one I'm actually really concerned about uh are we going to get a lower price um for gold here because this one here in terms of how gold has been moving before the market and whatnot it's been a little bit more on the aggressive side okay but yeah I'll leave the EUR USD and I'll leave the pound USD I like this trade uh the do Yen I'm not looking at anything on the do Yen at this point in time let's switch back to trading View and I'll take in any requests that we have here all right gold is actually coming back to Pivot I think for gold we could have a uh a much better price right uh actually for goal if you are planning to have a position I I wouldn't enter now but I don't mind a limit order I don't mind a limit order uh closer to 250 2505 we could probably get that level there uh again for stop loss I I don't want to go too far on in terms of how far the stop loss is you know 24 uh 95 it's really kind of the maximum in terms of how much I would go for this one here in terms of the gain that we're looking at here I'm wouldn't happy to take uh 2525 or 2530 but yeah that's the current plan that we have here risk reward ratio looks good I I don't have an issue here I think we could get a little bit of a better price on gold here okay all right I'll take any request uh but yeah this this here is actually still very well supported for gold here I don't have an issue even on the other time frame the RSI is dropping out really quickly here uh everything could reset really quickly so uh don't be surprised if the initial move seems like okay it doesn't quite make sense but you you'll start noticing uh in terms of what could go on here all right EUR USD and P USD again if got stopped out I don't think that's going to be an issue again the concern that we have here in the EUR USD is from a technical view um but it's not really supportive of what we have in terms of inflation at 2.5% at this point in time okay so you know uh I prefer a long position close to to one .10 you don't really want to have that much of a stop loss on this one here really in all honesty 1.99 it's should be more than enough to give room for the EUR USD okay do keep in mind the coal condition here is right now simply below the H Cloud Pine USD here again also stable I don't have quite an issue on this one here do Yen uh this is something I want to focus on a little bit because this is obviously huge driver in the market right if you want to take a look at the range of movement yesterday until this morning it was at 3 Yen that's 300 Pips that's crazy anyway for this one here uh we'll wait for a little bit I don't want to go long on the dollar Japanese Yen at this point in time it doesn't click from a fundamental perspective because right now we have a huge drop on inflation and the bank of Japan this morning has already mentioned that they have a lot of room to hike interest rates so interest rate differentials is going to shrink and in the short term that is still going to put a lead in terms of the do Yen strength okay the Yen could actually gain a lot more all right uh there's a request for euros Swiss sorry I just saw that uh request for euros Swiss uh Euros Swiss right now um technically speaking this one here it's easy for this one to actually break above it I wouldn't open a position right now unless you're planning to continue to go short if we have a strong re rejection at resistance one intraday wise and the stastics turn around then yeah we could go for a little bit of a short here unless you want to set up a limit order closer to 9375 and then your stop loss wouldn't have to be too far away uh 9390 is about the maximum stop- loss or maybe 94 capped out that's beyond resistance too if you want to have uh limit order on the Euro swiss but you know at this point in time I wouldn't actually take a position on the Euro Swiss because uh do keep in mind if the US dollar weakens the Euro USD gain the Euro Swiss could actually go up with it as well right Euro pound is pretty stable no not an issue here Yan is already starting to pick up pace uh EUR USD it's coming back down close to the 1.10 if you haven't had a position I would you know consider that that would minimize your stop loss uh it's it's going to minimize your risk a lot okay pound USD also right now coming back to 13055 very close to our stop loss 13045 but hey you know that's the that's the risk I'm willing to take it's not bad of a risk considering the fundamentals that we have uh right now okay so we'll see what happens a lot of noise obviously uh this one here doesn't quite register you know what's the market thinking have they been pricing in for that 50 basis points and right now it's a disappointment or and it might be a little bit of profit taking go that goes on here a little bit of position adjustment but from the initial reaction it doesn't quite click right unless everyone's looking at a core inflation rate changes per month that goes up from 0.2 to 0.3 but the headline uh year on-year core inflation remains flat as per consensus at 3.2% you know what I see here all the other data in terms of inflation I see inflation you know coming down in the US okay so yeah just keep in mind uh obviously there's going to be a lot of noise uh in the market you might want to wait for everything to settle down before jumping into the market as well stop loss for pound 13040 it's the Mex right um that's how far you want to have for uh pwn us you might want to go a little bit lower if you want to but you know considering the current condition that remember that we are going against what the technical is currently looking at so I don't really want to have that Beyond 13040 but yeah in terms of Target 1.31 is going to be your first Target beyond that you can also aim for the resistance one and that's 1. 3110 do keep in mind last last night it actually fails at 13110 right so that's going to be the limit but look at the risk reward ratio you're not really risking too much even if you go in at a higher price level you know if you risk about 30 Pips it's still going to be one to15 okay right now it's really small you have a lot of room to move your stop loss but um what we did just now the more the one that I'm comfortable with is at 1.34 13035 if it touches that level then I'll need to reassess everything uh and I will just say you know what I'll take the risk that we have here for countering whatever the momentum that we have from the IAL release in the market okay all right so last P USD uh I think your USD is also very close very very close uh to 1.10 so we'll see what happens here intraday wise on the a time frame it seems like there's actually a lot of momentum to go to the downside so you know expecting a little bit more noise than what I expected 2505 it's triggered stop loss not too saaria 255 2495 that's that's the limit all right we don't want to risk any more than that because uh hitting $24.95 will actually take this below the HM Cloud give it a little bit more room to go but yeah that's how far you want to go with it all right limit has been uh Bridge Le yeah good limit see taken out uh your USD and P USD testing and approaching stop loss we'll see we'll see what happens here but yeah gold for now I'm quite okay with with that you know if you had the limit order being triggered feel free to keep that position 2505 you if you are able to start moving your stop loss to break even just in case uh feel free to do that as well but in terms of the initial stop loss it's going to be at $24.95 take profit 2525 2530 that's it Market still prefer course CPI to go down then the headline CPI yeah we could say that but you know apart from that monthly I don't think we have any problem we can also check on the yields actually let's take a look at a 10-year yield because this could be what's moving up all right so do keep in mind this is the I'll look on the 10year yield this one here could push higher but it could actually fail at 3.7 and 3.72 should that be the case tonight we might actually see the market turn around so don't be don't be too surprised if you see a market reaction that goes up touch resistance one on a 10-year yield reverse back down because we do have resistance at 3.7 to 3.72 5 if we didn't get it right now then we'll wait I have no rush I'll wait and I'll see if the 10year yield fails at that level if it does fail at that level then it would actually be time to know that the US dollar could actually start to weaken as well so we'll see how what the reaction is whether or not the 10year yield is actually able to penetrate above 3.72 five if that's the case then it will take it above the isal cloud it would reverse everything think the Euro USD and P us should be stopped up by now no still hanging on very close to it but yeah oops what did I do there we go very close to support one right now for the Euro USD in terms of volume obviously we have a huge Spike that we have here let's see if the volume starts to diminish on the 5 minute time frame here we'll see very close to that support that we have I like the risk reward ratio uh yeah I like that too but you know obviously looking at the current pricing on this one here um I don't think this initial push is going to be the direction of the market for the week just keep that in mind uh because everything lines up everyone is going to start pricing in for a potential 50 cut in September if they didn't get it in September then they expect October to happen right but I think one huge cut is now pricing into the market we just don't know whether it's actually going to be September or is it going to be October so the estimated cut for this year has gone up from basis points to basically 100 at this point in time okay all right we'll see what happens yeah still still there gold is still being pressured lower at this point in time but yeah you know I really don't want to risk any more than 2495 per gold it's not worth it if you kind of stretch it out to 2485 then you might as well just get out and just wait at a lower price but again uh you know with the higher cat expected I don't think we should be um we'll see we'll see what happens any request for anything that you guys have while I'm trying to dig some data in terms of the inflation breakdown weekly earnings up 0.5 Energy prices is up 0.1% 0.2 Energy prices down use [Music] cars okay this is actually very interesting um let me get the fat watch tool and I'll show it to you guys here as well so uh if you want to know let's see where's the FED watch to here we go all right please refer to this web SL if you want to look at what the market is pricing in for the fomc uh right now you can see what's going on here the probability for a 50 basis points cut it's actually lower surprisingly it is actually lower um at 15% which is weird because previously we had 30% on the expected uh 50 basis points cut so one day before that it was actually 34% it's now down to 15% for a 25 basis points cut it's gone up from 66 to 85 so I think they're expecting a much bigger rate cut not to happen this month but in October and that's probably why you're looking at that you know initial reaction and adjustments in the market but fundamentally I don't think there's anything wrong with what we're looking at um I think you know Market has come down to very close to support level and I stick to my view that you could potentially see the US dollar weaken all right so I expect a little bit of a gain on the Euro USD and upon USD you could wait for it on the early time frame from a technical perspective in terms of whether or not you want to enter the market but um you know it doesn't change the fact that we have inflation below consensus at 2.5% you know if we got 2.6% you know I might be worried I wouldn't make that decision but it is at um 2.5% it is quite significant okay any other requests uh for tonight anything else you guys want me to have a look at uh I think it was a request to look at what Apple I'll look at Apple it's pre market though uh are you expecting uh a spike up in apple I in all honestly I highly doubt it products being offered announced uh yesterday it not really that great so uh here's Apple uh this is my view on Apple hasn't changed right if you're thinking of going long on Apple as long as it's above 200 I don't have an issue as long as it's above 200 uh from a technical perspective we could potentially be looking at a bounce here we might be finding support Max at about 2115 but anywhere between 220 and 215 you know it's probably a good price um pre-market reaction to this one here it's going to be about flat for Apple still above the cloud very thin though just keep in mind but once everything is in line stochastics turn around we might see a little bit of a pickup uh in apple okay uh the problem with apple is there's a delay in that in their apple intelligence release I think that could actually affect um how people actually want to purchase their iPhones might be a little bit of a delay but if they deliver then I don't have an issue at all with apple okay any questions so far anything else to discuss for tonight we still have time if you you guys want to ask for anything but uh I don't have um my view on the dollar at this point in time we might be disadvantaged by um the current pricing but we'll see what happens here right ignore the sarcastics if you will we do have limits in terms of where the support is going to be 127.2% it's basically where price is currently at Max is going to go at 1.9 1.99 that's kind of where our stop loss is going to be but it is going to be below the support to about 10 Pips below the support two okay all right that's for uh the EUR USD I in particular as a little bit of a disclaimer I actually have one currency in focus and that it's actually going to be the dollar Japanese yend I'm actually waiting for this one to test uh 14250 14275 at this point in time right if it fails at those level it will fail at pivot it will fail around the ishoku cloud it will initiate a potential selloff but if it does break beyond that level it maintains the position above 143 then I'll let it go no point chasing this one here because from a fundamental perspective it just doesn't click with me right now I don't think we are going to see carry trades continue uh in terms of carry trade unwinding we could see a little bit more unwinding happening in terms of what the bank of Japan is actually going to do they have again they just mentioned it this morning that they have room to high interest rates their rates are very commod uh accommodative um no major problems for them okay so this one moves really quickly and again I'll be waiting for any failures on the dollar Japes and I'll have a lot more confidence for dollar Japanese y if it fails uh considering that what we're looking at on The Daily time frame this is still wave load H Cloud we break a lot of support level but if it closes today like this then everyone might look at that and say hey it bounces off last year's low uh around December 2023 is it a significant price level where it bounces off from 141 yes it is the next stting to go to 102 that's okay um 102 10250 the previous change of character that happened was 102 what is this 10236 so the next barrier would be around here but this is going to be on the daily time frame if you switch onto the hourly time frame uh you can see in the next few hours maybe until morning the hok cloud is actually going to be thin so we'll see what happens here any failures at 102 or is it going to spike up 10250 we don't know but if it does Spike to 10250 we'll we'll stay away all right we don't want to just go crazy picking up the EUR USD and a Pon USD at a at a low obviously if it pushes up higher that would be highly dependent right now on the 10-year yield so if you want to have that Focus then go for the 10-year yield because that's going to be the deciding factor on uh the the US dollar tonight if the 10-year yield starts failing then that's your cue to see that yeah maybe it's time to start um shorting the US dollar okay but this is going to be your main indicator for today which is the 10-year yield there's actually a lot of resistance for the 10e yield I can zoom out if you want to take a look at this one here even by the short-term standard if we go just by this week's resistance we actually are at the resistance trend line uh this point in time okay so I still expect this to fail at 3.7 3.72 5 Max right but once it starts failing you know how far can it go maybe at 3.7 it could fail there so we'll see what happens here okay so we got everything planned out um positions wise I'm not changing the positions uh that we have I don't think it's a re too in fact uh if you want to buy in if you didn't manage to buy in I would say go for it your risk it's actually pretty small right what's your risk here your risk is about 13 15 Pips of risk on the pwn USD uh EUR USD since we have it at 1.0 n90 that's going to give you about 20 Pips exactly so not not a bad risk in hesty in Hy I don't think it's a bad risk okay but if you want to time everything uh what are we looking at are we focusing on the momentum here or just focusing more on the logic here that we saw an inflation drop below consensus everyone is going to start picking this up okay once the initial uh noise in the market settles down you have to start thinking about the fundamentals the facts that we have here the DAT that we have I think if we take a look at this everyone is watching the uh the fat watch tool that we have here I know it's dropped down from 34% right 1 month ago it's at 51% last week it's at 44 yesterday was at 34% today it's at 50% in terms of the 50 basis points cut that is for tomorrow okay so you have to think about when this consensus is going to be that's actually going to be the for not tomorrow for this month's rate cut okay dollar Swift potential double bottom on daily let's take a look I I don't even need to take a look at that because you know if you take a look at the dollen everyone would say hey there also a potential double bottom that kind of matches December low uh but yeah we are looking at the same thing that's the December low um so yeah not really too concerned about whether whether it's actually going to be a double btom or not we don't actually have a strong indication if that's going to be the case and we don't have that confirmation until you know when until price breaks at least above 86 on the doll swis or even more confirmation 8750 was still you know quite a way along quite a long way from that confirmation so I wouldn't call this a confirmed double bottom we do note that as a strong support that's the same bottom that we have here on the dollar Japanese and exactly the same right 141 dollar Swiss the same thing you know if we take a look at dollar Canadian that low is going to be at 1.3450 obviously we have gone past that level there for dark Canadian the Canadian still below the HM Cloud so just keep that in mind okay all right but for today definitely watch the 10-year yield 10-year yield fails then you know you got your queue to jumping into the market just keep that that in mind okay so if there are no questions left then this is going to be the code that you can use is non 2024 make sure you use the code before December 31st this year you have about 3 and a half months to use the code again s 2024 to double deposit bonus all right any final questions in the last 2 minutes that we have here if not if everything is good you know I have a a very strong view in terms of the numbers that we have it's actually not that hard to decipher if you're patient enough but you know looking at a current market movement happy to take the risk it's small it's a small risk to take do you think that we might go long today tomorrow sell off I would probably go the other way around we might actually sell off today and probably go long tomorrow so again if you want to wait for a little bit wait until the whole Market kind of coms down a little bit I just need to uh look at the data in terms of the breakdown for that inflation number what is actually driving inflation down uh I think it's Energy prices that's driving um the headline inflation down all right on ECB speech tomorrow yeah uh ECB tomorrow I I think I mentioned this in the Outlook right for the ECB tomorrow um I think we are getting a cut right but I think we are going to look at the overnight rate differentials and the actual interest rate uh right now the Gap is at about 50 basis points there were plans to decrease this to 15 basis points so we'll see what happens I think they have other things planned out as well for uh the Euro Zone in terms of them starting to cut interest rates but um they might still want to make monetary policy uh a little bit easier right uh sorry even easier so they might actually do that adjustment so we'll see what happens for tomorrow ECB pitch tomorrow um on the Euro yes it could affect the Euro but whether or not it could actually affect the pound probably not at this level the Euro kind of depends on breaking out of the current range which is at 1.10 and 1.11 that would be the deciding factor as simple as that if it does break below 1.10 then we'll see that movement back towards 1.09 50 1.0 9 but if it comes back up of 1.1 then it's quite clear in terms of where the US dollar direction is going to be and whether or not the ECB uh I know they're going to be cutting interest rates tomorrow as long as they don't go crazy and cut 50 basis points I don't think there's actually much that can be further pric in you can look at the Euro pricing uh in the past two weeks it has dropped significantly versus all the other currencies so not really going to be a surprise unless they do a 50 basis points cut okay okay so uh with that let's wrap it up for tonight good luck for your trades and I'll see you guys next month for