Looking at the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. Also, Trading Club today!

Morning call and the opening range [Music] the following presentation is for educational purposes only all of the symbols trading ideas and live trading are for demonstrational purposes and are not recommended ation or trading advice past performance may not be indicative of future results all of the information and opinions expressed by thirdparty guests are their own and are not necessarily those of ninja Trader LLC trading Futures involve substantial risk and may not be suitable for everyone and trading Futures can result in losses greater than the initial required margin Traders should only trade features with risk Capital risk capital is money that you can afford to lose without jeopardizing your financial security or current lifestyle you can find additional disclosure information on the ninja Trader website [Music] good morning everybody Welcome to ninja Trader live my name is Jim kegn it's Wednesday already September 4th 2024 joining me live from Long Island New York the incomparable Tom Schneider CMT Tom good morning good morning Jim how you doing pretty good you know I'm just thrown off that it's Wednesday to be honest with you I mean we this these Mondays off I'm not going to complain I was I'm grateful for the Monday off but it's just odd seems like a Tuesday yeah exactly that I I uh first day of school here for our youngest today and I looked at my wife I said today's Wednesday it's already the week's almost half over where' it go but I agree with you um but plenty to do today uh a lot of news already coming in um I I actually though before we get into it I saw I watched a fun baseball game last night yeah I watched the Orioles and the white socks it wasn't fun if you were a white socks fan that's for sure I don't think this whole year has been fun but uh it it was fun to watch and and my friend was on the broadcast and and all good well did you um was this the game where where where in typical socks fashion the the left fielder bumped into the short stop and they knocked heads and one guy got a concussion and they missed the ball did you see that yeah yeah that was horrible I felt bad and then another play the the pitcher fielded the ball and threw it to the first baseman but he threw it wide and he hit the runner in the head that was tough it just and there were a lot of wild pitches it just was not a good night for the white socks but were they were in Baltimore the Baltimore fans enjoyed it so yeah well there this the first clip went viral time it was hard not to see it okay okay I saw it live as it happened and it was ugly it was tough felt bad for the players on the field yeah well it happens it happens to to folk to professionals it even happens to us every we have a bad trade idea every once in a while same thing yeah you can't avoid it can't avoid it no you can't well let talk about the economic releases that have already hit the street yeah so we had 8:30 International trades and goods and services that's basically the deficit or surplus of what is going uh out of an in uh and coming into the country and that was a bit I would say it's a little bit of a beat I don't know what you think I I know I skipped over mortgages because it wasn't in the uh it wasn't on the schedule I thought it was supposed to come out tomorrow and they actually brought it out today but um we did have let let's do that NBA mortgages 6.43 was the actual rate came in a little bit lower than last last week's rate 6.44 so I'm heading in the right direction applications up 1.6% from last week's 0.5% so again I think trending maybe in the right direction there um international trade in goods and services uh came in as a deficit uh negative 78.8 billion but it was uh expected to be about a little bit higher than that uh negative 79 billion so um I think again that's that's a little bit of good news right and then uh Factory orders 10:00 a.m. coming out uh but really jolts is what we're looking for that's going to give us information about the labor market job openings labor turnover survey um so there and and you mentioned I know you were talking yesterday with with Eric there's a lot of information in that report yeah so right jolt is a big thing in my mind I know it gets kind of swept under the rug when it's kind of in the same week where we have n non-farm payrolls released and by the way we have Challenger gray and another jab report tomorrow um so it's gonna be Jabs Jabs Jabs week but two yeah we have eight we have jobless claims we have Challenger gray yeah it's a big labor week you're right right so the thing I like about jolts is it has specific categories right job job openings we have Labor turnover we have separations we have uh you know all these different categories which kind of uh you could analyze in detail so that's why I like that report and that's going to be uh that's going to be a 10: clock today so we're going to be on our toes before we're shooting trades out there and most likely um also uh by the way trading club today 10 o'clock so we have to you know know digest that report and then we'll come on and talk about some some trade ideas at 10:00 uh beige book though Federal Reserve beige book this is uh basically a summary it's where all the 12 districts kind of put together a a report card of of what's happening in their District uh in terms of the economy right so Manufacturing Services they might even break it down a little bit more and uh it's kind of a a way to gauge the economy overall breaking it up into the 12 sectors of the Federal Reserve uh API weekly oil stocks delayed a day because of the holiday 4:30 today um that to that point um eia report for petroleum is delayed till tomorrow so normally on Wednesday we would see 10:30 the eia petroleum report come out and maybe move of the market around a little bit we're not going to see that today it'll be tomorrow for the eia report yeah you know we did have a little bit of OPEC rumor though speaking of crude oil OPEC plus discussing a delay now this is the opposite of what we heard last couple days ago discussing a delay to the planned oil output hike in October now that's three sources according to three sources on the internet on the worldwide web OPEC plus we had six sources saying no no we're going to go ahead and actually hike output now a couple days later three folks are saying ah we might delay that and and you know this could be a response to Chevron saying we're going to we're going to increase production at two of their big Wells um you know I look at it like kind of like a dance right you've got you've got just different dance partners and who moves forward who moves back in that case you had those six OPEC members say yeah we might be uh we might be hiking you know getting rid of the production Cuts like we said we were and now three OPEC Plus members saying no but that between that we had Chevron saying yeah we're going to increase output so you know they're trying to to uh I won't say control but they're trying to manipulate the price a little bit because they have their own interest too for each country yeah for sure for sure and by the way Tom you mentioned the beige book yeah if you ever read it that report you know why they call it the beige book it's not easy read it'll it'll improve your sleep score right it'll improve your sleep score that's right we were talking about that before the show started I had a 75 today so I'm happy with that anything over 70 I'm happy with there you go yeah anyway um all right well let's oh the other thing we got to talk about before we go to the charts here is I guess um so Nvidia received a questioner from the Department uh of justice and then not shortly long after that they received a uh there's apparently a subpoena regarding a escalating antitrust investigation and um I don't know how how severe or serious that is but that could cause a drag on the whole entire stock market yeah yeah no I think that's a big deal and and we'll see um you know how that how that affects trading today when we open up because I think that happened that happened last night after Market close yeah yeah and I think and uh if I I could look it up really fast um Nvidia stock I think in overnight trading broke is down about 1.4% yeah yeah so oh boy in any event um let's check out some charts Tom sounds great all right daily chart em Min S&P now Tom I did something different and again I'm I'm going for this this visual uh Delight in other words what what kind of comes across the screen for everybody to see better so I've made some color adjustments and whatnot um most notably uh down at the bottom here on my uh on my oscillator my RSI I made a histogram bar because this morning I was trying to highlight areas where we either crossed above or below the Z the 70 Line yeah and when you have a line when it when when it's a straight line across sometimes it's hard to see what day starts the next day okay so anyway this is still I'm still I'm still working on this but I kind of want to see how important that 70 Line is and apparently it's kind of important yeah I mean that's um traditionally the the overbought level threshold so anything anytime it crosses above or stays above it's considered overbought and that expectation is a reversion to the med it can't stay overbought forever although technically maybe it could but it usually doesn't right probabilities being what they are generally doesn't stay overbought same thing on the downside and I see you have that uh dip below 30 in in August or very close just briefly um same idea comes out of oversold and gets back to neutral territory yeah the on the upside though it's a little bit more obvious late right because we've been in a bull market and maybe this is Market it's always in a bull market but um you know so we are above 70 here in June and then again in July and then uh middle of July uh but we haven't been really below 30 maybe one day here that's it yeah so my focus has been above 70 yep anyway um where we at now we're sitting right on that uh 50 exponential moving average time right there by that 25% harmonic we're sitting on it with our feet dangling over the edge yeah this is you know this is an interesting yesterday was an interesting day we just saw a big draw and broke through your moving averages now your moving averages uh are trending downward now because of the recent activity uh today a little bit of follow through you might say that that was a key reversal I'd have to you know go up and really check the high of yesterday versus the high of that short trading day on Monday um no no one tick short so the high the high yeah that uh 5667 was the high on the second that's 69 hang on 60 what did I say oh no it was you're right Tom 67 High yesterday's high was 6975 so yeah we have a key reversal there right right and that's you know that's a that's that's an interesting thing right because for all intents and purposes it is a key reversal if you take out Monday's trading right um Monday's trading not a lot of people participated let's compare the highs to Friday definitely a key reversal right the high do yeah you could do it I you know look it's it's kind of what is the intention right when there's volume maybe maybe I want to look at when there's volume there's such low volume on Monday because of the holiday you could you could say yeah let's ignore it why not yeah it doesn't really it doesn't really matter because the end result was still kind of the same thing we have follow through today yeah well that would mean every single one of these candles this this is a bearish engulfing versus all of these candles right right I mean two weeks worth two weeks worth of trading was undone more than two weeks was end up yesterday yeah yeah so anyway I mean we do have a little bit of a um a little bit of a what I'm going to call buyer Wick here at the bottom of today's candle so far we'll see what happens we're down 18 so far premarket we're in the ichimoku cloud by the way yesterday's yesterday's trading put us well I mean kind of well into the cloud about halfway into the cloud and we're still digging a little bit today speaking of that tomorrow by the way tomorrow yes we're going to have a couple of 15minute segments right one of them on the cloud that's right so we're trying something a little new we're experimental we're always trying to you know find something that clicks uh first off before that I think it's really going to be fun something different called ninja Trader book club so uh Jim Jim Mike and myself we will review take about 15 minutes to go over three books uh that we all um well that each of us pick a book that we um you know like and and have read and keep going back to and just uh about trading um we'll review those and then after that Mike and I will do an itchy moku Cloud review where we'll go through some of the major markets and where they stand with the in relation to the cloud awesome that's going to be fun yep that's going to be fun all right so a little bit bearish today although a little bit open-minded too in the minm let's go to the Micron naazi uh and by the way we have 275,000 in the EM Min S&P so again we're back to normal normal pre-market volume yes all right here we go um looks the last three candles maybe two candles look very similar all the moving averages are starting to cross under each other the fast ones are going underneath the slow ones um in this case high to low we're at almost at that 37.5% harmonic which is at 18703 give or take um and then we also have that magic 19,000 level time that we just kind of touched this morning and now we kind of sold off of that yeah and I'll throw one more thing that's in there I have an um an anchored vwap anchored to the lows in April ah that yesterday's candle took out all right let's go to let's go to this low right here April that low right there exactly let's do it right click I'm going to go to drawing tools we're just going to go down till we find the order flow vwap anchored vwap here we'll start at where the trend started maybe or do you want to go to the low yeah the low yeah the low I do the low but you could do either one it'll it'll probably be very similar yeah so I on my chart we're below it a little bit Tom yeah yesterday we crossed below it so we're and we saw some continuation just like we did in the e- mini we see it in the NASDAQ but to me that's that's kind of an important level the next level anchored vwap would be anchored to the year and that's at 553 18553 a little lower all right so that's an important level though I think I'm going to add that by the way September is notoriously A bad month for the stock index Futures seasonality wise you're right yeah so Tom where where are we anchoring this one from again Jan two the beginning of the year right there zero point Z I hope not I hope not Kevin it won't be good for the old retirement fund so you see that right there that's yeah could be an interesting area right 18550 you could call it right because it's an area not a not a single point yeah oh boy old farmer says in the future question mark when this correction is done if the trend line breaks it's a perfect Head and Shoulders all right and we're talking nzy right I think so that's the chart we're on but then again I just saw this comment so I think we're talking nazzy when the is done so so old farmer using the word correction which is a major violation by the way but only because old farmer there's no such thing as a correction the market is always correct there's no it's never incorrect I'm teasing you I'm teasing you but um so as we pull back or retrace back down I think and that ends um you know would there be something there so here's here's a case where how you handle your data is important we're going to go back to es cuz he's saying es got it so I I'll I'll say this you know I I'll continue that thought because um how you handle the data is important if you adjust or non adjust you know non adjust the data yeah that'll give you different different looks into where those trend lines might be where those necklines might be if there's something there at all um I don't really see it too much now uh he might be referring to something at 5495 on the e- mini um there might be a a head and shoulders there I'd be interesting to see what the time Horizon is there might be a longer Head and Shoulders that started in May early May with a small shoulder a bigger head but then you have a really lopsided shoulder I don't know what about an inverse upside down one what do you call it an upside down Head and Shoulder shoulders yeah there's the head shoulder maybe a shoulder forming now um I don't know I it's it it's a very different shaped inverted Head and Shoulder all right well you know what we'll do we'll say this we're data dependent we're just like chairman Paul here we're data dependent we'll see what happens today 's shoot over sh over the Russell Todd says 5490 bottom of unfilled Gap okay that that I could see that all right Tom we broke out of my triangle here yesterday big time we broke not only that not only we break out of the triangle this is the Russell 2000 small cap stock index Futures everybody we broke through we broke through the 8 exponential we broke through the 21 expon exponential we broke through the the 50 exponential and now we're kind of at a pause right here right and you know that that 50 looked pretty nice it was right at the bottom of the ichimoku cloud that 50 and now it's broken through so a lot of levels of support taken out or approached with yesterday's candle and we're just following through it's looking pretty bearish yeah I'm going to get rid of my line because we've broke it it's broken all right RSI is RSI is not doing anything so let's go over to the DA the Dow uh double top for sure well not for sure but pretty pretty good double top here in the Dow yeah um not as weak right we just Wicked through the 21 exponential and po back up for the second time in a row so if I'm thinking in terms of all four of the stack index Futures this is the this is the one where I'd be the most bullish in my bias I'm not bullish generally I'm kind of open-minded in this market today but this is probably the strongest Market oh yeah yeah we're still being supported by that 21 period moving average we're above the cloud with the exception uh well the 8 is trending down which we'd expect it's closer to the data but the 50 is still moving upward um it's looking a little like you said it's looking more resilient stronger than the other stock index Futures but I I wouldn't necessarily say I'm I'm like you said I'm you're open-minded you're not necessarily bullish longterm still bullish right but today a lot of downward pressure today yeah I'm going to put my uh Fibonacci did I say that right like Fibonacci retracement and I'm going to go in the trend started which is approximately right here in my humble opinion on the 8th of August I'm going to go up to the top here that top Wick right there and uh see where we're at 25% ex uh harmonic again right there 37.5 would be the next stop down but I think uh I'm gonna be optimistic here Tom High Hopes High Hopes yeah definitely I you know let's see what happens at 10 o'clock and see what jolts tells us yeah let's do it gold down five $5.70 right in that kind of consolidation range still I'm not going to move my hamburger Bond I'll drag it out a little bit but we have support approximately 2516 we have resistance approximately 2560 we've been in that range for a while things are starting to turn around a little bit the moving averages are starting to slope down that 8 exponential and then that 21 is starting to flatten out um but again we're kind of I think we're still you know we're above 2500 as well I think we're consolidating sideways here and we have Wicks buying Wicks here on the 22nd on the 3rd of September on the 4th of September every time gold dips into this box buyers are kind of are trying to take it back up we'll see if they have enough wherewithal or fortitude continue that yeah so here's an interesting thing I I look at a slightly different I see lower lows lower highs um see this downtrend you see that pinching nature of the moving average is if you took the data out you you just look at the moving averages you're looking at a possible bearish cross approaching um you know when you think of like gold gold is an inflation protector right but we don't have inflation anymore or it we do we'll always have inflation we don't have rampant inflation right inflation is is trending downward so the rate at which prices increase are slowing um that might a drag on gold so if we get jobs numbers that are weakening that also might be an Ina an instance where okay well if job if the labor market is is turning down prices aren't going up what do we need gold for this to me is a little bearish yeah yeah we I hear you you got the macro view by the way my you know by measuring my Costco bill it's inflation's gone man I I literally just I stopped going so it's my bill zero there well you know what if you get if you just buy the hot dog at at CCO there's been no inflation for how many years right 25 years that's great it's a great place that is it is kind of interesting Tom by the way I know this is a Sidetrack a little bit from what we're supposed to be doing right now yeah but there's there folks I think go to Costco just eat lunch oh I think so I I mean there's it's always fil filled with people you know EA they have pizza yeah they have hot dogs like you mentioned all sorts of stuff it's a it's just it's a weird phenomenon I'm having a hard time getting my head around it yeah well get them in there right so you can buy that you know 50 pack of toilet paper whatever you need you know yeah well I we get the olive oil but they did a Switcheroo on us or here's another reason why inflation is not gone so usually the big things of uh of Kirkland olive oil yeah are they're in a two pack right and they have this like plastic kind of handle attaches yeah attaches the two which by the way they're impossible to get off the actual yeah you need a PA whole problem yeah it's not easy so uh and you try to brute force it and you're you're liable to have a disaster but um now the price was a little less I was like wow this is great but they only sell one there weren't there wasn't it wasn't two for this price it was one for that price I'm on to these guys by the way Jim before we break I do want to give a shout out to Paulie H and IAL for being the first on chat uh good morning to both of you and hope you're having a great day and thanks for joining in the chat you get a special shout out absolutely Paulie H iel special shout out thanks for being here let's take a break Tom yep [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] all right we are back everybody with a daily can of the WTI light sweet crude Futures market right now we are in the October 2024 contract and Tom we're we hit rock bottom and we're still digging here 69 handle right now um just to put that in perspective in December we traded at 6771 at the low so we've seen these prices in the last year but uh we broke I've got on my my chart 7165 as a level um an area of support it was a recent double bottom it was a bottom or or a support area in February and it seemed like okay this is the low of the Year almost maybe not in in January actually we did trade a little bit lower uh 7106 so uh we're making you know 2024 lows can we take out the lows that uh you know we did in in December of last year it's just not looking good now Al another thing that's interesting time about this yeah is that when I go down to my RSI there's virtually no overbought or oversold levels all year yeah isn't that interesting I mean that to me is the nature of that dance that we mentioned earlier it's the it's the um uh drill baby drill versus the let's keep the prices up crowd and that that tends to it seems like it it contains the market and if we look if we pull this way back you can see that this year's trading is just a drop in the bucket no pun intended uh to the range of let's say the last even you know two well three years almost right we trade as high as like 130 and a little bit lower right in May uh 68 so yeah we're just trending towards the lows I just want to be carbon neutral Tom that's my goal I don't know how yet I plant a lot of plants my backyard's like a tropical forest let's keep moving let's go 30-year treasury bonds up few ticks not a lot but enough for me to be excited about my idea that hey we're in the bull market here a couple of speed lines we're tracking right now moving averages are starting to angle back up again still not an overbought oversold situation um and uh well what do you think I mean I'm gonna go ahead and open this up a little bit more I mean we're like you said the moving averages are turning up again it's it's bullish it just doesn't look you know um super rangy today you know we're waiting for jolts information maybe if we get that then we'll see a little bit more movement today more of a range but yeah it's looking looking fairly bullish um the ichimoku cloud just is moving up it's well above the cloud but that ichimoku cloud moving up tends and its green tends to say okay we should be in bullish mode which we are yeah yeah I've got high hopes here yeah all right let's keep rolling here let's uh we got to catch up we're way behind schedule let's go to the uh let's go to the Bitcoin the Bitcoin is having trouble again today uh sold off again my rectangle is no longer any good so I'm going to move it out of the way way um I don't even know where to put it to be honest with you so uh you know 56 715 yeah I I kind of would have it at you know possibly like 53800 the bottom of the body of that big red candle yeah top of your box right there yeah that's that's good I you know this is falling below the 200 day moving average it's it's bearish oh bearish bearish bearish like now keep in mind this Market has a mind of its own this is you know 247 uh Bitcoin market so be on your toes but uh from a chart point of view Tom I agree with you 100% this is this is really a this could be kind of we can get to 5400 pretty fast yeah yeah all right US Dollars weaker against everything uh Aussie British pound sterling Canadian dollar euro FX yen swissy the only hold out but that's such a small increment it's I'm going to call that one unchanged same with the Canadian dollar um so again stronger uh weaker dollar let's keep that in mind as we go through the day yep and by the way uh Scott says if you don't eat drive or turn on the lights there's no inflation you live in a tent in the backyard and hunt for your own food there you go we'll go back to those days yep really beautiful volume profile Tom to start the day off on 321,000 volume which is pretty good so it's interesting we had we had a kind of a big dominant sell off yesterday and now we're kind of finding H price happiness at wait do I have the right contract up yeah a PR right price happiness at 5522 yeah I mean this is uh VAP interesting when you see these rangy days you know when I say rangy I mean range bound you know making lows making highs um yeah you know sometimes vwap is just a pivot right we we trade around it we don't really see a lot of uh backing off of it or or a Launchpad or anything like that and you know the only caveat I would have is after the opening range then we can revisit the idea of support or resistance because there are more there's more volume coming in yeah so high to low were 34 handles 34 and a quarter handles high which achieved almost on the open on the open uh blowbacks open last night and then the low was actually on the European open yeah yeah interesting so and average true range is what do you got I got 77 so there's a lot of potential here yeah we're about 40% of the way to average an average day and we've said that before and look what happens like yesterday you know we were we were coming off of a holiday you know a little more volume but that got Direction pretty quick yeah right for sure so I mean I don't know I mean I think I think we have to be careful of jolts right that's the main thing that's in our way right now so I like the fact we're driving up to the uh you know basically unchanged on the day from the Globex close which is approximately 3850 uh we'll see if we can maintain that uh trajectory Paulie says September is the only month to have an average negative return in the stock markets for 98 years but I would say so I would challenge Paul and I'm going to ask you this question of those 98 years um how many times those 98 years how many times uh are we about to start or will we have started a rate cut cycle that's that would be interesting to me so for instance if it was 10 times then what happened those 10 years right going into rate cut cycle I don't know what the answer is I just thought that up in my head right now um I think we' need someone like Eric Norland that or blue putam actually Blue's coming on Friday up up on Friday I could ask him to see if he could pull up that stat for us anyway um where are we at here folks let's keep rolling here NASDAQ Micron NASDAQ yeah mnq looking similar right not quite as um regained meaning you know we're not close to that close of yesterday we're actually getting back to the lows but a nice distribution I think it's not textbook but it's a nice volume distribution and um kind of typical of a of a range bound day yeah this is a really good one right really good one the idea of course when you see something like this is hey value area trading let's sell at the top of the value area let's buy at the bottom of the value area this whole point of control here is where price happiness is look how many candles have traded at that price since the start of the session well I'm going to eyeball this at approximately 65% of them maybe so yeah and we're right there right now um macd is not helping much we're just kind of bumping up against that not even we're positive we're not even bumping up against anything so we'll see what happens there with the McD Cal Delta is pretty negative yeah that's that's a little worrisome right when when you don't have a lot of advancement um in the cumulative Delta you know cumulative Delta is increasing but it's still negative and price really isn't advancing that much you got V app's resistance area you're right at volume uh the point of control in the volume profile yeah no this is looking a little weak yeah and again this Nvidia thing could be a drag on this right yeah I mean we'll get more information today probably about the subpoena by Department of Justice um with respect to you know antitrust issues possibly at Nvidia and um I don't know how many ship manufacturers there are in the US but probably not a lot of them yeah I wouldn't think so yeah um let's take a look at the Dow Dow is is doing a different thing holy cats what is going on get rid of that look at that guy so this to me could be a rotation thing right you've got Nvidia with that um subpena affecting NASDAQ possibly um you've got the Russell which you know we don't have much more information about interest rates to me this is just like well let's put our put our put our um you know forces behind the Dow because the Dow's you know Blue Chip stocks I don't know it just seems a little bit a lot well a lot more bullish right it looks bullish on the a lot more bullish on the um daily chart and it looks certainly right now looks bullish on the intraday chart we're above the RSI by quite a bit we're at 77 almost 78 you've got this is the candle where cumulative Delta went from posi from negative to positive um and volume is just coming out I mean this is just right now it's clicking now it's the first candle of the opening range this could turn around as we've seen that and we're coming up against jolt so not saying this is maybe the time to go along but just thinking that if you were to go long this might be the the market in a longer term sense yeah um you know so far we've hit 310 on our on our daily range here we have ATR 100 470 so we're talking 160 more points possibly on the upside if this continues yeah we're right right up against the pivot um R1 yeah R1 would be outside the average true range so yeah so 160 plus this is going to get us to be to two 320 is something like that yeah 300 yeah so say yeah so anyway looking good so far second green candle in a row in the opening range that's a good sign let's kind of keep going let's keep moving Tom let's get all The Usual Suspects gold is next gold is kind of that's kind of a strange pattern Tom vwap it's respecting vwap session volume weighted average price it's resp it's respecting the pivot we are definitely range bound between these two levels yeah this could be waiting for jolts and you know nothing else right um interesting that you know Europe brought it down all the way down to S1 and even Beyond yesterday's to yesterday's lows and something happened turned around it's 5:40 5:30 in the morning uh brought this right back up and now we're we're just consolidating like you said I think it's you know six handles whatever it is uh the average true range for gold today is 35 roughly so the question is you know do we get to 2537 that would be on the top we're not we haven't got there yet or do we get to 2495 which again is is not there yet gold please yeah so all right so couple things um Frankfurt Germany opens up selloff starts the uh uh uh uh the European open starts tried to tried to fight back a little bit gave up sellers took over all the way to previous sessions lows previous sessions lows held pretty tight S1 wasn't really in play um drove us all the way back up here now if I'm thinking about this the dollar US dollar is still a little bit weak with respect to all of the other uh currencies right so we have a weak dollar and gold is kind of like sitting there going well I don't know if I care about that or not maybe we do but right we'll see kind of look at that relationship right yeah I think so I think so um you also had PMI come in for other countries and you know they weren't horrible um they were a little bit of a Miss from forecast depending on where you are uh UK actually beat and it's on the expansionary side it's 53.7 uh that's for the the final that's kind of the the uh Ser well I'm sorry that's for the services uh the the composite was a beat as well 53.8 but Euro Zone was a little bit of a Miss off of forecast and and a little bit of a a drawback from uh previous month of 52.9 versus 53.3 in the services and 51 versus 51.2 so you're having these little misses um Germany is not on the expansionary side it's on the Contra contractionary side um and China also uh missed but it's on the expansionary side so you're running 53 52 51 48 for these different countries but a little Miss off of the forecast is if you do that too many times it adds up yeah and uh you know at the end of our conversation yesterday with Eric Nolan he was talking about Germany being kind of the weak link and we're seeing that in their composite at 48 uh 484 for their PMI yeah yeah so um anyway so Tom we're trying to we're trying to drill down into my rectangle right here we'll see if we can make any traction or not of Delta is pretty negative here on gold and the macd is kind of Tangled in love around that zero line yeah that that kind of reflects what's happening in RSI which is just slightly below 50 but sideways is so yeah yeah all right let's keep rolling here let's go to again let's go to crude this is interesting we have so I have three different contract months up I have October which is the front month at about 26,000 contracts it's trading on a 69 handle 6975 the December contract is 6847 and the January uh is 6810 so again this is in uh back ration let's click on that that guy there and take a look at the October wow this is looking bearish as possible here Tom yeah so now here's where I see an intraday Head and Shoulders Jim okay tell me you've got the left shoulder that started at about 510 510 okay so that's so the bottom of that would be kind of where the point of control is is that is the neckline you could move it around a little bit but if we want to do uh horizontal line you know so we're thinking about that as a shoulder no go higher where the point of control is right there go higher where the point of control is yeah yeah yeah yeah right there right yeah I thought you were putting a a horizontal line there yeah okay oopsie sorry about that that's okay so the head's obvious right the head's up here exactly H all you really need to do is when you have a head and shoulders you need to know where the neckline is and where the top of the head is that's all you really know need to know for predictive purposes and so if you took the distance from the top of the head to that neckline we can get a t a downside Target well let's draw the neckline let's draw the neck line so the neckline would be based pretty much the point of control right yep should I go straight across or down a little bit Yeah you yeah you go down a little bit I guess that's it's really again this at this level you're not talking too many ticks right right difference but it will make a difference when you know where we apply it now it's pretty obvious where you would apply it right you'd apply it where we broke through which is happening right now right or it's happening right there you go so that's the measured move folks so the measured move go you go to the high the head top of the head to the neckline copy and paste that line and go from the breakout of the neckline to wherever it ends up and that's the measured move that would be quite this would be quite a interesting move to 68 what is that number 68 okay 6822 yeah so no that's a pretty big move right um if you get 70% of that move could you be happy with that yeah of course we could be happy with that right you get half of that move yeah we could be pretty happy with that you know a breakdown of the neckline two unit trade in the micro three unit trade in the micro you might just pick off you know uh uh what is it mpost milest check post Milestones whatever they are yeah exactly on that road to the measured move I'd be happy with 7% of that 7% I mean you said 70 so but the ATR is 2.42 we're at 2.28 right now so you know that's another 14 cents From Below My Line my low right here below that uh why is that blue line even there um which gets us to 6905 is that right so about here yeah all right we'll keep that on there we'll see how it goes um that would raise some eyebrows just this just the psychological idea of getting a 68 handle 68 print on this um going to be interesting and I expect more kind of uh rumors you know tomorrow is the OPEC meeting right OPEC plus is it tonight or tomorrow night starts tomorrow right but they're over they're like the opposite side of the world yeah they're probably nine hours difference that's maybe maybe yeah other side of the world would be Australia or Singapore or Japan now hang on if I dig a hole straight where am I going to pop out I thought was India no you'd probably pop out in the ocean going bring my scuba gear all right let's not to be a down or anything but I think literally the ocean is where you'd pop out yeah okay sounds I'm sure I'm sure there's an app for that yeah so let's see I want to go to I do want to check out real quickly uh uh copper uh kapper we didn't talk about in the daily chart but you know we have this is the second lower high swing This is Swing Low lower swing low lower swing low uh I'm sorry let me start over this is a lower swing High a lower swing high and then we have a lower swing low lower swing low so right now we're driving driving toward that all the moving averages are crossing under um and near SI is hovering at 41 but um right now we have uh an interesting kind of form formation here right we have a situation where we have a little bit of buying interest yesterday a little bit of buying interest again today so we'll see if we can make it through that through that level here and drive back down and create a double bottom yeah yeah I think you know we also have lower highs lower lows you know kind of competing forces right is are the buying forces enough to push this up or is it just somebody trying to you know swim against the the tide yeah yeah I don't know I don't know anyway on on a 10-minute let's see if there's any trade opportunities here really quickly here real really kind of interesting this is a really nice volume profile even though it's skewed a little bit to the north we have a nice point of control here clear and PR at uh 40 spot 08 and a quarter and we're kind of not moving a lot right we're not moving a lot we could draw some speed lines and some tread lines here to help us uh as well but you know the trend has generally been up since after the European open but right now we're trying to retrace we do have a higher uh a higher swing high and then again another higher swing high so this Trends kind of moving up a little bit Tom yeah I like your trend line you drew there right and we're right there um if it fails you've got that uh vwap you know kind of holding you up as well so definitely areas of support there um you know your your your cumulative Delta is that that's positive right yeah it is yeah ever since uh yeah yeah so you've got you've got um you know a little bit of it coming off during this pull down but uh still positive I I think there is there is definitely a case to be made for for a bullish copper right now intraday yeah I agree this might be my trade idea buying off of vwap there you go I don't know though they a counter Trend a little bit of a counter Trend idea but something to think about any we do have a we I'll add the micro copper too that might make it fun it'll make it good so Tom by the way who's here with us today we forgot to mention uh we forgot to mention who's here with us yeah we've got a great group today um in addition to paully H we have Raleigh and Nola boy Mark moscada is back hit and Mark R uh Mom and Dad tags good morning Jen p is here Aaron L is back Mario R and J Man 2005 in Las Vegas good morning Simo is here old farmer you mentioned uh ecnos Stephen R and Ripper 24 John M is here and uh Raleigh I I did the same thing you did to find out exactly where we were in the opposite side of the earth so we'll talk about that in just a moment um in addition to IAL we also have Lobo and Aviator billionaire Carter and Nicholas uh Ila Amador and John C AA Ron and Quincy Smith they're all back for money good morning Rampage is here uh ace j Stevens is back as as is Scott K in the lead infinitely and Todd muser capitalist and Eric 856 uh Roberto fero is here Scott K if I didn't mention that already uh crypto John and Bow Hunter D Mero Ana good morning good afternoon Michelle faran is back and Barat Ram AMU I hope I said that right Thomas bolow is back awesome awesome folks thank you so much for being here appreciate everybody being a part of the community uh helping each other out supporting each other um hit that Thumbs Up Button uh if you want appreciate that and you know spread the word um me and Tommy have knew we we have been they've taken our leashes off a little bit we've got a couple of new Twitter uh uh handles uh that we're going to start uh throwing some information out at again if you see that that'll be cool um Tom's is ninjatrader Fort mine is at ninjatrader guess what uncore Jim so we'll be we just we just really created them this weekend so we're going to start working on those to try to get some more information in the Twitter's in the xere I shouldn't use the word Twitter right Tom I should use x yeah the xere Twitter sphere whatever it is I don't know yeah I'm sure I'm sure Elon Musk doesn't matter um Scott K Scott K now you have to get three times your your training goals because I just mentioned you again um by the way m Michelle I got you Michelle says I'm GNA end up in the ocean as well so yeah yeah I was just looking at that that's great um there's a site called geod to.net uh narup is the uh closest city to where you would be Jim um it's in Western Australia but you would be in the ocean you'd be you'd be more than a day's worth of swimming to get back there I'm a pretty good swimmer my mom's like shaking her head right now I can tell but I'd probably be more than a days in like a a sailboat yeah yeah yeah yeah well I know blue Plum's trying to talk me into get in a sailboat and I you know he's like damn you're in the perfect part of the world for this why why don't you have one because apparently he has one and you know he's a big super fan and I'm like well I'll run it by Mrs kags and I said you know hey Mrs KS uh blue said we should get a sales ball sailboat what do you think what do you think she said no there's no chance there's 0.0 oh my goodness well coming coming from you know my wife and I come from uh you know sailing families right so ra you know growing up in the midwest you have Lake Michigan racing families so um okay you know it's uh it's certainly if you invest in it you're going to be investing a lot of time into it which if you're ready to do that that's great but it is a it's a big investment yeah for sure um all right folks I just em S&P is trying to make new highs as we speak we're getting close to that jolts number um so what we're going to do we have Traders Traders club today right yeah trading Club is today yes Mike Burke's coming in he's going to grab the steering wheel we're going to be looking for trade ideas we're going to ask you guys for trade ideas we're going to talk them through we're going to place them uh in our in our Sim accounts so let's hang uh let's take a let's take break early so we can prepare for that let's uh we'll be right back folks yep [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] Trading Club looks at different trade setups [Music] [Music] all right we are back folks I'm sorry Mike go ahead sorry um I was just I was I'm I'm I'm on a 3 second delay Jim uh well it's in my it's it's just in my nature to like start talking I know it's a bad it's a bad trait but uh you know lead us out lead us out of the gate here Mike well welcome back everybody um this next segment actually it's two segments is our trading club and a trading Club is a is a special segment that Tom and Jim and I do where the three of us will look at trade setups uh talk about each other's trades maybe do a bit a little bit of analysis uh but more importantly this segment is driven by you guys tell us what markets you want to look at tell us your trading ideas any trades you've taken today feel free to comment on our analysis really you guys are in the in the driver's seat and uh together we'll all come up with some uh some consensus trades we'll track those trades we'll Place those trades we'll look at risk management so definitely uh let's um you know looking for you guys to help Drive the the next uh hour here as we look at different uh different trade ideas uh Jim Tom thanks for being here yeah thanks Mike uh jolts just came out by the way and the stock market doesn't like it I don't have the numbers yet though yeah jolts are down oh wow sub 8 million we're forecast to be 8.1 million and it came in at 7 uh 673 so a little bit more than a a small Miss on jolts Factory orders up uh forecast to be 4.8 % uh month over month it came in at 5% so that seems a little bit better for the manufacturing sector uh us core durable goods revised no change there 0.2% uh down is forecast and what it was from the previous month and uh durable goods revised came in a little bit lower 99.8% versus 99.9% forecast uh so I think a little bit of the numbers were mixed but jolt was I think a bigger Miss than Factory orders were a plus so that's why we might be seeing a little bit of a reversal uh da is up I think up as like much as 3% on the day now it's up only about 05 yeah and I'm getting go ahead Mike go ahead no go ahead Jim no I'm just saying I'm getting my I'm getting my micro da chart ready to go I was just going to say that you know this is what the FED wanted the had wanted to slow down the economy joltz has been in Decline for you know that report's been in Decline for a while this is the lowest reading since I think 2021 so this is what they wanted and you know and that that's what they've got and and you know and again it just feeds into the narrative that we're going to see a rate cut in September the question is you know I've seen that that 50 basis points creeping up are we going to get a 50 basis points or are we going to get a a 25 yeah we could take a look at the FED funds tool too see what that says uh fed watch I think it's called you know remember it was a 63% uh yesterday when we were at bars closing uh that we were going to do a 25 bip uh cut is is bip the right word could I use bip yeah that's right beep bip poop and now it's only a 59% chance yeah and it might take a little bit for this news to filter through to that market too so we should check it in a little bit as well all right I'll keep it on the side here I'll keep it on the side what are you guys looking at I'm trying to get along uh the Globex uh close in the uh micro Dow okay so I had the same idea until jolts came in yeah I thought a breakout of the opening range is where I was looking at for the micro micro Dow kind of continue that strength that we've seen in the Dow um with the opening range uh the first first 10 minutes of the opening range we had a big move up um I'm not so hot on that now now the beauty of a breakout trade is you could still put the trade on and if it doesn't get there it doesn't cost you anything right but um this buyer wick on this candle makes me think that breakout trade still might be in play so I might I might put that in there as like a two-unit trade okay so just to recap Tom you're talking um opening range approximately 164 here at the high you would be a couple of ticks above that to enter on a stop loss to to kind of uh grab any upward potential uh on a breakout on the upside right I think you know you have this Market digests the jolts number we know that it's been trending down like Mike said it's kind of what the FED wants um okay that's out of the way what else news you know what other news do we have the rest of the day oh nothing okay great let's let's see if we can continue that uptrend that the institutions hedge fund started at 9:30 got it all right let's keep track of that uh Mike what are you how you feeling over there so I'm uh I'm looking bearish on crude oil I kind of like Tom's Head and Shoulders pattern that you guys talked about so the micr crude um um you know I'm I'm I'm kind of thinking here that um hold on a second I just wanted to take a look here so you know I I I'm thinking somewhere if we can if we break out below that uh that 6960 level okay so 6960 that's about that's in the that's in the middle of the opening range kind well at the bottom end of the open range yeah yeah I want to anticipate that opening range I think we're going to go right through it like it wasn't there all right so this would be uh we'd be selling on a stop here at this point right yeah let's let's do two all right two units is on is on the is on the Block here go ahead no that I think that's it let's see if we get that if we get that filled then we'll come in and we'll we'll uh we'll deal with a a stop but I definitely think the stop would be at the at the top of that opening range all right sounds good so everybody in the chat if you got an idea or you're in a trade or you want to talk about a trade throw it in the chat now is your time over for the next hour we're listening we want to explore trade ideas that's the main idea here we're getting close here Mike I I like this trade I like this trade idea you know it's really hard Mike to sell you know when you see a market I'll just go to a daily chart really fast when you see a market like this where it's just we're breaking you know forget there's no support we broke through it giant Benchmark candle yesterday continuation selling today it's psychologically hard to get short down here I agree I mean you know they you always say the trend is your friend I think that's true on these longer charts but when you look at the intraday chart you know if you you say that look here it's in my view it's the momentum as your friend and in and in this case the momentum here since uh we topped out there earlier is down and so all we need is is a little bit of a push through our price and we can we can we can have a quick hit here make a nice M make make a nice uh profit here on a short-term trade and um you know we we don't have to worry too much about the fact that whether this is overbought or oversold just trying to get a few you know a couple of handles out of this Market I think that that makes the most sense yeah I like it I like it so it's interesting I'm looking I'm looking at crude oil here you know the the the the the volume right for this Market is is is high right I'm looking at the big contract normally at this time of the day we'd be trading about 117,000 contracts we're at 175 so that that's pretty good confirmation that you know these these Traders are are you know they have some commitment to this down move yeah all right well let's hang tight here Sim's got he he asked a question thoughts on a long at 5527 uh 50% fib and a possible second at a point of control let's open let's so we are short Mike in your in your Market really quickly here but let's just take a look at Simo real quick uh 27 so I'm assuming he's already long right he's trying to get long there uh Ripper's long at 3250 but yeah I think that's the question on a retracement back down would that be a good move um unless unless uh no he's waiting see wa waiting got it got it you know there's a lot of support at yesterday's low you also have the vwap there at 5520 you've got all these supportive factors below those areas um that Simo put in there and so you know I think that's a good idea idea if we can get back there I mean this this candle on on the E mini I mean look at that retracement it pretty much retraced all the way down to the opening range low and now we're at the high of the opening range if we can do it again great um it does look kind of bullish what I do see though cumin of Delta is really still pretty negative so how does that how do we feel about being bullish when cumulative negative cumulative Delta is negative 88500 contracts um I don't know that's that's a that's that's tough but you know we've we've seen this pattern happen already in this candle can we get there again yeah I don't know but but he's Tak I mean this is out of my Jim K handbook right hereo I like it you retrace back down the the problem the worry I would have on this is we would have to retrace let's assume the high is in for now we'd have to retrace all the way to that 62.5 retra uh harmonic which is right by that point of control which would start to worry me because my stop would have to be in my mind would be in a rectangle below uh previous sessions lows which is approximately 5515 so I would probably be encouraged on a retracement to try to get long this is again my idea my my my opinion I could be completely wrong 375 I think would be more attractive for me uh let's go back and get some trade Management in for the short position we have right now we're short two right now 6960 and Mike you are up so let's um let's put that stop loss in you know just below that uh opening Range High let's say it let's say it's 70 oh okay that's a little bit below it but okay no I'm sorry did I say below it I meant above it just move that yeah in in fact we've got that low of we have that previous low move that up just a little bit above the previous low got it that previous low is going to be a strong resistance level so there you go that look yeah it's a micro I'm gonna give it a one more tick just to be safe okay and let's just let's take just yeah that's that's perfect famous last words just to be safe let's and and let's and let's take um one off let's take one off at uh a little bit higher than that maybe there 6930 that looks good all right and then for the second unit Mike is it going to be a runner kind of idea where we just move the we're that we're GNA let that run like I said I like Tom's idea earlier you know I think I think we could hit maybe 68 6820 so you said what was your first Target because I can't see your screen Jim so okay so let me uh just re re recap for everybody so we're short two micro crude oil contract trick 69 60 um we have our first Target it's 6930 so about 30 ticks are you know we want 30 ticks we have our stop for two units right our two units it's 7014 slightly above the opening Range High and slightly above previous sessions lows and then uh the idea is let's get that first unit put it in our pocket move our stop to break even at 69 I don't know 59 or something like that and see if we can get a runner back down to your head and shoulders Target awesome so what about what about you Jim do you see anything here that you want to put on see I had the dowal going let's go to the micro di see if we're even close for my this was this was in in in uh you know in the spirit of seimo I'm looking for that retracement I'm going to revisit this right now with a another uh I want to get a fib line in here right now just to make sure I'm not making the mistake I told simu not to make um so again I'm trying to get one unit yeah the second unit here is is is a problem because look at look at where vwap is vwap V wap's handling it so I'm going to move this up a little bit to 37.5 I'm going to move my second target uh my second unit I going to scale in right below that vwap here I get a Weck below the vwap and then my stop I'll leave alone for now so I'm still waiting Mike for retracement this is a retracement trade not a breakout trade to kind of get in get long the uh the Dow so Paul Millard said he's long at at 4775 and he he he maybe maybe get in at another one at at 4700 there's a retracement so that's a longer term trade right which which Market I'm sorry Mike the Dow the the Dow okay yeah I think that you're right Tom yeah and look at the look at the volume profile it's really messy um the value are is pretty big the prices below value range is small prices above value range is small um and there's no and the competing point you know the point of control is okay but this was from pre-market right all of all of this volume happened before we opened so so I could see us getting back to that competing point of control right about 41065 is 41 oh oh right about here yeah yeah and and you know possibly bolstering that that level a little bit maybe maybe a little lower maybe at 50 but um that might be a good area of of to Target but then you have yesterday's close uh I I I'm still bullish on this even though I'm a little Underwater All right so I'm gonna adjust my I'm gonna abandon Mike Arnold's 37.5 for now I'm going to bump it up a little bit higher to that to your number time 41 uh uh 060 still though we need some kind of retracement and this is looking pretty strong so Paul gave us a little bit of a clarification he's in Copper he's not in the Dow holy C all right let's go to Copper I miss I missed the decimal and uh now it makes more sense if you're trying to get long at 407 you got long at 40775 and we're trading 40860 that's not a bad trade at all um it's looking you know this looks like a a bullish you know bullish look although there seems to be a little bit of resistance up at the 409 4095 you know or 40950 area um but you do see these higher Peak lows you know you got to like that so you know to me the test will be uh vwap does vwap hold really is what it is yeah sorry guys I was looking for for my micro it says I already have it on my mark my thing here we'll just use the classic sorry about that so I'm just going to mark that Mark for you just to kind of so I could just kind of follow yeah so question that Paul has is what his Target should be and that's that's a great question you know something like this well you could do a couple things you could try to get a Target at the top somewhere and when I say top I mean above where you are um I don't mean top of the top of the trading range today you could um you could try to you know kind of what is a good Target you know obviously it depends on your your trading size and all of that good stuff or your trading account size of your account uh how long you want to be in the trade that'll have something to do with it copper tends to range um on average uh eight or nine cents right between around it N9 cents so if we're looking at the low we're looking at 4113 is kind of the average range that might be a great idea right um conversely you might want to put in a trailing stop if it gets closer there you might want to see can we get to the pivot right I think you mentioned the pivot you mentioned R1 which is um well above that's 4 cents above that average true range but why not right um because it's only an average it could be today could be an above average day um so those could be lofty targets but we have plenty of time left in the day now copper just um if we think about it the regular trading hours for copper are not the same as the stock market right so we might see volume Trail off well before 4:00 it might be and I don't remember the regular trading hours for copper it might be 2 o'clock or 2:30 eastern time so you just want to just be aware that the the range might start to slow down after that time um I don't know what do you guys think as a as a Target if you're long at four spot 0775 well so I have a line there right bottom of the opening range My worry is this we have uh and I where's my where's my cross where's my magical red circle at it's here we go I found it these Wicks here worry me because that means sellers said no we're not letting you go any further that's enough we even have one all the way back here at 2310 whatever time that is so we have one here one here so we're getting a lot of resistance up there um now not to suggest that we can't break through that but I'm a little bit worried about that so I think your entry is great because it's way down here bottom of the opening Ranch it's above vwap I think that's super good um to get a second unit down here at 70 um at 07 I think now then you enter into a longer term trade idea I think that's my opinion though I don't want to talk you out of anything I'm just giving you my opinion here's where I'll be Devil's Advocate to what Jim just said with those sellers Wicks I agree big sellers rejection but every time they try to test it it gets a little higher so you know there's there's that end of it too while we might not get to those levels again um you know if you put in a 410 and you're happy with that I don't see why we couldn't try to get back up there even if we Wick up there if you're the one that gets filled who cares if it's a wick right if it stays up there you're on to the next trade so um you know I I would I would say yes those are big seller rejections and the question is if we start to get above let's say uh 40950 we might try to get above that last sellers Wick you know and and try to you know just keep hacking away at at the upside you are a glass half full time I don't know so what what about what about his stop where where where is he stopping good question that's uh important Paul we're waiting for your stop if if if you're not trailing the Stop and you're you're in it for the long haul and you want to give it a little bit of [Music] room I mean you're I think Paul you mentioned you're trading a micro so I could see you know the value area low right around six four four spot 068 685 could be could be you know because there was an area of support there earlier maybe a little lower than that that's if you want to stay in the trade longer and and you're okay with giving back a lot right yeah that was yeah no go ahead Jim no I that's exactly what how I feel yeah I I I think this this is a market that is you know if if you're in at if you're in at uh you know 77 you know 775 I definitely think you know that that either there's there's two strategies here one is if you're really committed to that for whatever reason you could take another one at that value area boundary instead of stopping out there and then and then your you know your stop for the whole trade would be maybe the low below the low of yesterday of yet yesterday but to be honest with you if this was my trade I I'd have I'd have my my stop in just at above break even I'm I'm a I would be a chicken here because of those big sellers wigs so um so yeah I I would be I would be at break even and and just you know stick with the trade uh and and try to try to get maybe a a profit Target where Tom was suggesting but I I don't think I would take I would I would at this at this point I wouldn't take any heat in this trade I'm I'm out if it gets back to my you know a couple of ticks of above where I got in I I'd probably Trail mine up I I agree with you Mike like it's we've you know if you got in at 4775 you've been in this trade at least a half hour get paid for your time right Trail your stop up and go maybe to the low Wick of the previous bar which is 82 you know you get a if it retraces you're out um I do want to point out Mees Ace AJ said he had a three-unit trade all hit all three targets and um that's awesome yeah uh great you know that's great if you hit all three targets and you can see why right because uh we did have three almost I would say three white soldiers um despite the fact that they're kind of already in an uptrend you got these big uh bullish candles at the opening range and now we're we're just kind of sitting right up at the top half of the opening range um I don't know this this might have been a a better breakout trade than the Dow uh just based on the performance of those three you know first half hour waiting for the data and now we're free and clear it might be it still might be a good breakout trade I don't know yeah no I I like that I mean look at this Delta is still pretty negative though Tom but MD is okay yeah but but it's less negative that's that's what I see here is you're right you know of Delta is still negative but it's getting less negative crypto John is long Mees he is long on that big wick down to vwap almost um that's a nice nice long trade you got about 12 handles into it that's great yeah I'm gonna add my my FIB here I'm starting to like this Market it's turning around for you huh yeah um little bit of a volume deficit this is interesting a double distribution here of course that's always caused a concern but but uh and I guess I just drew that a little bit too aggressively I'll do something like that so interesting yeah I mean I think this is a really you know if I was drawing a rectangle instead of this region highlight tool I'd started here so there's definitely uh a support around the 50% retracement I don't know I wouldn't hesitate to get long here somewhere somehow would you would you retrace to yesterday's close it seems like that's been a nice support area right here that 25% harmonic yeah Globex closed last night um yeah I mean that's a good area I'd love to see another vwap touch also I don't think that's unrealistic so from a from a retracement trade point of view I would consider something like getting along where you suggested time well right at the Globex and then trying to get a second unit at vwap yeah yeah and then uh I I would bail out on this trade idea uh below previous sessions lows here because we have a lot of support right here right we haven't had a candle close below previous sessions lows since 320 this morning yeah right we got an order fil somewhere let's see oh I heard the noise in my ear in my earpiece I looked over at my uh my control center to see where we were filled at we were filled on this on this chart all right Mike's like all right don't get too aggressive here CH hey can I I like this long trade idea can we look at gold yeah real quick let me just put let me put one target here really quickly let's do that let's um and I'm going to use this again this 50 50 even number all right gold see what's go to gold gold micro gold there we are got it wow so let's let's let's let's get long here yeah I was just thinking that so all right well let's let's see if we can get filled real quickly here just how many units Mike two two I'm instead of doing Market I'm just like I should just do Market all right we're along to pretty close to the point of control yeah and and and again um let's put a stop right below those that tweezer bottom there the last two bars so I don't want to take any heat on this perfect you know for someone who lives in Miami you don't like to take heat a lot and um and to Tom's point on the on the other Market we were looking at let's take one unit off about 3/4 up of that t that sell's Wick we'll take one off at about so like 29 yeah somewhere in there yeah all right there you go let's move that down a little bit to be honest yeah right there perfect thanks so you're thinking though Mike you're looking I know you're looking at the US dollar right now also right yeah yeah the dollar is weak across the board now there there's no it's all green the major currency pairs that I'm showing right now I don't have all the majors but I have the big ones everything is green on my currency look yeah yeah let's take a look at that crude trade micr crude yes [Music] sir me adjust this really fast got to get some windows out of the way boom Oh man we're getting there we're close right well let's let's open this up a little bit yeah I mean we're what's the low of this candle the low of this candle is 34 four ticks we missed it by four ticks so far but that's okay yeah we that's looking that's looking good I love that sell's Wick at the top of that last bar yeah I mean that thing is like sweet you saying scottt K was saying he got 16 points on a short on on NQ that's a nice trade yeah yeah oh he says he won't make three times though I won't say his name SK we'll call him SK so guys um we're at this critical Junction here where we decide are we taking a break or we keep rolling let's take a short let's take a short break we'll come back and look at the Control Center and see what we're in and out y sounds good [Music] m [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] okay uh we are we are back uh Jim can you bring up uh your control center let's just kind of do a a quick review here so you know when you're when you're in these kinds of trades in this case we're in a few trades here that uh that control center really kind of just lets you know where you are and what markets you're in you can you know if there's any any uh positions that you've forgot about this is where you can see that same thing on the orders tab you should always check the orders tab once in a while you know just to make sure that everything here is is is H what you expect so yeah so on positions Mike we we achieved our first Target our only target really in the micro we could take a look at a minute micro mini uh e mini S&P um and then for uh trading club we have these two orders here at the bottom we have the gold we're still in two units we have our average price 2523 spot 9 and then that's our unrealized p&l uh the crude oil short two uh average price 696 uh and then the uh unrealized p&l 42 so so far so good if those if those hold out so we we'll keep an eye on those so right now we're not in a major market index position no and my and well I had some orders in the Dow that didn't get filled interestingly enough though we're about to we really close Mike to getting uh one of our units here you had to say that right Jim well if I talk slow enough before I'm done with this sentence we are going to be filled at 27 spot 8 at least that's my hope and I can't go on how about um how about the micro Russell yeah I was looking at that too again I want to move my stop up come on let's go market we we all right we'll we'll toggle way Michel Russell where is it at uh m2k so I'm long I just went long two units yeah I like this I like this trade Tom like just now what's your price Tom uh it's obscured by that about 59 six all right I'm gonna try to get in on too and two units time two units well come on Jim of course my feel is not going to be quite as good as yours but I'll get it in all right there you go so there's not there's there's nothing above us Tom what where you going to set your first Target so there is you're right on the chart you have there's nothing above it but we have to scrunch it up a little bit because you know yesterday was such a wide trading you know such a rangy day right the pivots always show on the chart so I'm going to take a look and scrunch this up and look where my next pivot level is it happens to be the pivot itself at 2176 now the reason why I like that is you know if we're thinking about average true range on the Russell average true range on the Russell is 45 handles and that Target is within that average true range so I'm going to go out on the limb and say I think we can get to that pivot level by the end of the day don't tell me twice I'm going to go right below it I'm not going to I'm not going to put it right at the pivot I'm going to go right below it I'm going to sell one unit and that gives us room to have a runner Trail the stop up you know uh if we get that second unit break even and then Trail it up as the day goes on all right and I have a 45 average true range 46 we'll round it up we only at 25 now so I like it yeah 82 would be the average true range Target on the upside so Tom you got that's just one unit right that's my first unit then okay so where do you want to put the stop at here so you know when you have such a long Target 14 units I don't think it's necessary to have a 14 unit stop to have a one to one risk reward right that's kind of it's kind of crazy I think but you know my thought is you know if this Market turns around and gets back into the opening range where could we think it'll go before it stops and and I see vwap will be supported by vwap possibly but also you have Globex close and you have um really the point of control so I would probably do it at like 2145 as my stop all right let's do it that oh that's right right north of the point control right that's like that's like that's so hot that's so much heat it's like being in a sauna there Mike's gonna move to like uh Calgary or something but we can Trail the stop up as it goes right this stop loss doesn't have to stay there I thought if I thought Mikael was gonna say how about just at the opening Range High opening Bo Boh Hunter has an interesting comment he says he has a propensity to the short side you know and and he's not wrong you know a lot of times the market moves more quickly down than it moves up so you know if if that's kind of your experience yeah that that makes sense that's my experience I mean my experience is yeah it crawls up and it falls down yeah yeah so I like yeah it's a it's a it's a it's not an individual bias it's a market bias it's a collective uh Mob act you know follow the mob uh activity all right we were filled somewhere I not know where let's see did we get gold uh could be yeah let's go to Gold All right so we got one unit on gold move the stop to break even maybe yep absolutely and now uh a little bit above bre even and then where uh what do you think Runner or you just kind of we're GNA let it run let it oopsie shoot sorry about that what do I what did I do we're going to let it run yeah move that stop up a little bit just so that we lock in we've already locked in that first you know no that's way too much sorry sorry yeah that's perfect that's perfect Okay so we've locked in that first profit and uh if it doesn't work we'll we'll put that in the bank yeah for sure that's the beauty of the two unit trade right you lock one in for a small amount move to break even see if you can get a runner lack going abely you don't need any of those Runners to have a good year right let's look at let's look at um aren't we also looking at crude yeah crude we are we are short crude me open this up a little bit better oh we keep we keep trying to get it but we just haven't gotten it but we have a series of lower lows series of lower highs this is okay I think so missed it by one tick let's move that stop I don't want to take that much heat anymore on this let's move it all the way down to just above those three Wicks right there there you go there you go all right so so that's an interesting comment Mike so your stop management has a time-based element to it absolutely again it it goes back to what we always talk about is that we got in for a reason and we expect the market to move in our direction we're not asking a big lift for that first profit and if we don't get it after a certain amount of time the trade just isn't working and so my confidence in that trade goes way down if we haven't hit that first profit Target right away so instead of you know know if I left my stopway up there you know we we could be in this trade for a lot longer than I want to be in this trade so it's it's I think it's better here if if if we if we don't make it at at this point then again I don't want to take a lot of heat on this trade and hope that it comes back later on in the day let's just let's move on to something you know a little more high uh high probability makes sense and we have a little bit of a stall here you know we had a doge like candle the previous candle you know very small bu it's not a perfect dogee buty close enough for me so we're kind of like price happiness right this second can we revisit copper yeah yeah let's see what's see copper holy smokes look at that so that was a that was a nice that was a nice call by Paul yeah yeah uh Paul said it hit his new Target at 41 55 which is up here so that was a great call Paul because he he was long from way down here 70 so um yeah beautiful I like the fact too that um Paul I think you only had one unit on right so one contract on so you didn't you didn't uh move stops to break even or anything like that because I don't think you got the second unit uh but I like the fact that you you weren't overly greedy on that I like that so crude we're out of crude I think crude got stopped out yeah turned right around holy not and and Mike was right on moving to stop right because yeah look at that I mean we would have taken a lot more heat yeah so that was the right decision let so this double bottom kind of held a little bit I'm going to go ahead and put a rectangle there so so the news that just came in OPEC plus is close to an agreement on delaying yeah the Supply hike so if you delay a supply hike you reduce Supply price goes up yep and that's a good example so this is how OPC rolls they have these meetings scheduled for Thursday and then they send out these test comments right they test they in time to use your vacular probes they send these probes out yeah oh yeah we're cutting let's see what happens the price oh maybe we're not let's see what happens to the price oh we're definitely going to delay let's see what happens to the price then they have their meetings and they already had like a whole week of testing it's it's really I think it's on purpose yeah man Mike Mike's moving to stop down now that was that was this is an important part of trading right so he I used the I used the force Jim that's that's how that happens so no you did it you used your intuition in common sense this is not the stop you're looking for that would have been a nice stop in Reverse yeah yeah should have would have could have but that would have been a nice stop in reverse the Russell's on a bit of a run here let's see where that is holy cow look at that all right question mark Tom you leave your stop where you're at or no you g are you gonna Channel your inner Mike Burke here I'm so I'm moving it up so I go I'm at the low of two bars previous so one two okay you have an acceleration like this you could even move it up even further but when this candle closes in six minutes assuming it's still up in this area I'm moving it to the low of the previous candle you could do the low of the body not the low of the candle you could do break even you know it's it really depends on how far it advances yeah yeah so far so good though paully says the Euro FX turned bullish that's not good for my Italy trip I don't have my I don't have my Euros yet um the other trade we were in let's see was gold right and that's doing okay also let's just kind of toggle back here we got plenty of time left folks and the Dow finally went our way oh I got to check my Dow orders all right so oh yeah we're doing good here we don't have a Target remember we're going to let this gold run let me check my orders in in the Dow I might abandon this so I'm going to abandon this trade idea it's out the window right now we didn't get that retracement I was looking for so cancel cancel cancel make a new he so Jim that yeah that gold trade yeah the low 252 suggests an ATR Target of 36 or 37 roughly okay so just short of yesterday's highs and even a little shorter than R1 so just something to think about when we're talking about letting a runner run and train ing the stop up at some point you know how far in the move are we in terms of the average true range if we're near the tops you could maybe Trail it up even tighter right yeah I gotta all right so give me those numbers again um uh Tom uh so average range Target on the on the high side is 25 I'd put it at 20 25 36 and a half just to kind of split the difference okay previous sessions Highs are not too far above that so and remember this is our second unit right yes yeah because we we yeah you can see the carrots here let me open this up a little bit better I'll try to format this better next time so we're long two contracts 25239 which is right where the marker is on the right hand axis of the chart and then we we we got one unit uh we sold the contract at uh 27 spot 7 and we're still and we moved our stop to break even plus almost you know one and a half points interesting look at the Dax in the eurosock this worries me a little bit the Dax and the Euro stock now they had their PMI numbers come out today so they might be behaving a little different because we had our PMI numbers come out yesterday right but um the the Dax and the Euro stock are down a little bit and I know that the Nik was down a huge amount this morning I don't know what it is now I don't know a little bit Jim the micro Bitcoin is on a bit of a run here here we go wow look at that guy hang on let me get rid of all these lines straighten this let me straighten this chart up let's let's let's just do one here let's get in at at Market and we'll just kind of do an even bracket there maybe you know maybe a a you know two or 300 Bitcoin dollars above and below that just a bracket okay so we're at 430 right here uh maybe 630 is about 200 no let's let's take it up closer to that low okay there you go 30 this is just a little quick hit yeah so about 300 on the way down so approximately there maybe there you go this is not a lot of money but this this is this is this is looking pretty good A Break Out There above you know all the other prices today this is a market this is a market that can can trend for a while yeah once once once the buyers get going yeah and it yeah you know we get you know you said it's not a lot of money but you know at 350 at 250 you're getting me a Starbucks 350 maybe a caramel macchiato you're getting a Costco hot dog Jim there you go there you go this is a great Market this is a great Market you know either in the Sim or in real dollars trade small and you get a feel for you know placing orders um kind of you know the the a little bit of the volatility but more importantly just kind of your temperament as the market is you know is is moving quickly this is a great Market to kind of build those those skills because there's there's not a lot of risk if you're just trading one contract here right but make sure you have a stop in because this this Market even though it's small can move quite a bit yeah for sure I like the micro I like the micro yields for that as well that's a that's that's a fun mark Market to trade as well yeah so let's look at that um the 10year yield again for the second day in a row is higher than the two-year and not only that it's 10 basis points so yesterday was at five I think we Clos at five basis points that would be called a normal yield instead of an inverted so that's going in the right direction there definitely um look at this go you're on to something here Mike so you pretty much all right so you identified this big Benchmark candle as a candle which was big enough had enough momentum to it it should carry over into the future correct correct I mean you're looking at 10 minutes I'm looking at five minute bar so my five minute bar was was a big enough candle that I thought oh this is a change in momentum yeah um this Market is over sold in my mind on the daily chart this Market wants to get back to 58,000 so that you know every trade has a story it's not just the bars it's a lot of times what else is going on at a different time frame what's you know is is the market you know what is the bias of this Market at this particular moment so it's not just the patterns in my mind but it's also you know what are what are some of the bigger picture items that would would um confirm my idea that this Market Market wants to kind of move higher yeah right makes sense we're almost there Mike yeah so close Market oh geez all right hang on a second there you go we're out I'm lock I'm gonna lock that in I don't like the low of yesterday that's that's a a strong resistance level for me and I only wanted to take a little bit out of the market and I did that and if it keeps going that's fantastic yeah I I I'm happy with what what we did yep yeah I mean that's you know that was 30 Sim dollars I mean in addition to my you know Triple Espresso shat caramel macchiato I might get one of those you know sausage and egg sandwiches also there you go yeah can we take a look at the Russell micro Russell yeah we can so I move my stop up to the low of the previous candle and I'll keep doing that as long as this Market goes up like that oops sorry like that so Tom I I have a philosophical question for you yeah so in this market like all the other major Market indexes I I feel like you know the traders that are are in that are watching this Market are looking how much it's up or down on the day so a lot of times I've noticed that you know one % up or down can be a support or resistance level you know Traders Traders say you know are are looking at that and they're thinking yeah it's up 1% you know that's a bit overbought or it's down 1% that's a bit oversold so in this market 1% would be um seven points higher from here so you're saying could we move our first unit or would you say well seven points higher is is our first Target right right so I just thought that was interesting that you you had this right at that 1% level I don't think you did it on purpose but but that that that Pivot Point would be a 1% move on the day and I think that's a great level for that that's interesting I hadn't noticed that yeah I wasn't thinking where are you measuring from M where you starting your your measurement for the 1% so basically on the on the previous close Okay so so the settlement the settlement on the previous close yesterday 1% would be about 2175 yeah there you have it yeah so I measured it Mike from I'm not sure where the settlement was I measured it from the Globex close yes yeah which was kind of close wasn't W weren't they close yeah you go B I always get oh I see it's a little lower it's it's a little lower at uh 4:15 yeah so I'm going to just uh we we we'll call it but that makes it even closer to 1% yeah right right so if I bring it down it's going to be almost exactly at 1% it's funny when you when you have the the view of the screen you know just limited to the data right that's the the nature of how the software works right we want to bring in all the data that's relevant and and really it's the data that's printed right the price data but we have other studies right we have pivots we have previous High you know highs previous lows previous closes and when you kind of pan out when you kind of Squish the scale it it just I I think for me it opens up like the possibilities right what are the possibilities today because when you're trading in a such a tight trading range from the overnight session the European session into the uh pre-market and it's all within and the Russell it's all within 20 handles you kind of limit your view you limit what's possible but if you step out and you squish or squish the scale right which is to open it up give more data you can start to see oh well there that's where yesterday's high was yesterday's high was almost 50 handles higher than more than 50 handles higher than we we are now who's to say we can't get there again today why not right something happens um pivot pivot wasn't on the chart we found it now it's a Target where's R1 R1 is another 1% up Mike or a little more so could it be a 2% move to the upside today possibly I don't know why but we we you know we have to keep these and that's why we like Runners yeah well if we would have had a better jolts number I might agree with you yeah good all right oil is giving all that back oh yeah well that was an unplanned news event I mean look at we would have been stopped out up here it would have been oh yeah we would have been stopped out much higher yeah yeah so OPC is really great at manipulating this Market yeah so we have Jimmy uo up next couple seconds here um and I do want we should remind everybody tomorrow we have we're going to do a book review right and we're doing a re we're going to do an analysis with the ikami cloud yes so tomorrow will be fun um the three of us will talk about our favorite trading books and uh and then Tom and I will do an ichy ichimoku Cloud market review on on a bunch of key markets so both of those will be great um want to remind everybody that everything we're talking about here is for educational and demonstrational purposes only these are not recommendations we're trading in a Sim account here just to kind of talk through the way that Jim and Tom and I look at at trading and and hopefully you know give you some ideas and and maybe just kind of broaden uh the way that you look at the markets a little bit uh Tom anything else no I think that was well said all right thanks everybody for joining us Hang on we're going to take a little bit longer break here and we'll be back with Jimmy uh it's Jimmy right Jimmy Oriel yeah fantastic thanks Jimmy Iuorio talks through the JOLTS report everybody for joining us we'll see you in a few minutes we'll be right [Music] back so you want to be a Trader well you should know you're not alone over the past several years record numbers of people have set up their very own online trading accounts there's never been an easier time or more inexpensive way for do-it-yourselfers to get started trading the financial Market better Futures start now with the ninja Trader mobile app with the power to customize how you trade on the go you can quickly and easily Place trades with a single swipe and view index Financial energy metal crypto and more futures markets and access over 40 built-in indicators plus custom indicators all from your phone stay up to date at all times by enabling notifications get started today at ninjatrader tocom technical analysis Made Easy A starting place for new Traders when do I place my trade where do I set my stop- loss or profit Target all good questions that Traders need to answer on a regular basis one of the ways Traders get to those answers is by using technical analysis in a historical price [Music] chart join over 800,000 users who trust ninja Trader as their Futures Trading platform of choice access the world's most popular Futures markets and trade seamlessly across devices including PC Mac or mobile get started with $50 margin and commissions as low as 9 cents need support we're available 24 hours a day 5 days a week want to personalize your trading setup connect with our ecosystem of thirdparty developers building trading indicators and more visit ninjatrader tocom to get started today better Futures start now with the ninja Trader mobile app with the power to customize how you trade on the go you can quickly and easily Place trades with a single swipe and view index Financial energy metal crypto and more Futures markets and access over 40 built-in indicators plus custom indicators all from your phone stay up toate at all times by enabling notifications get started today at ninjatrader tocom join over 800,000 users who trust ninja Trader as their Futures Trading platform of choice access the world's most popular Futures markets and trade seamlessly across devices including PC Mac or mobile get started with $50 margins and commissions as low as 99 Cents need support we're available 24 hours a day 5 days a week want to personalize your trading setup connect with our ecosystem of thirdparty developers building trading indicators and more visit ninjatrader dcom to get started today [Music] [Music] all right folks let's talk Futures my name is Jim kagina this is ninja Trader live joining me live from Chicago Illinois Jimmy ioro Jimmy Oro I'm sorry I always say your name differently every time I see you oh we got we got a volume problem here that's okay we'll work it out all right all right so uh Jimmy's working on his volume right now hang tight everybody um we're gonna talk about joltz a little bit um this is this whole week is really about employment right we have I don't know five or six employment reports coming out uh some of them are private uh uh some of them are uh from the US government jolts came out today and uh so on my screen right now I'm just showing the report right so where I started here at the press release right they have this job openings and labor labor labor turn turnover summary and you know there's a bunch of you know text in here that summarizes the data that came in and it's you know it's it's they Ed a typewriter from about 1952 to make this this this font uh pretty good I think Jimmy's with us right now and then we how are you buddy good how you doing J if I clicked down the first thing I heard was they use a typewriter from 1952 to make this even more confusing and I agree 100% I mean look at that I mean that's Courier font for sure and this is oh boy anyway um and I was just explaining though as you scroll down though on this press release there's a whole bunch of uh hyperlinks down here with different data and so table a pretty much has everything you click on table a and it gives you all of this uh information I don't know if you had a time to look at this report this morning or not uh uh Jimmy but the equity markets initially didn't like it and then they just rebounded and said Shrugged it off so I think not liking it it's the same thing right because what it is is it's the the equity markets like to believe that the FED is coming to the rescue this did not dissuade them from that um I happen to believe and I have for quite a while now that the labor market is much much weaker that it's been portrayed to us and this is another um little indication that which by the way I will add the jolts number to me is only important with the direction it's going not the actual net numbers because it's a very very poorly responded to survey I think prior like five years ago the jolt survey I think 70% response rate and now I think it's a 30% response rate but I I'm not 100% certain of those numbers but either way I'm basically right around the mark so this is important to me and I think it's a big deal and I think the fed's going to ease so hang on a sec though what's response rate mean so for these surveys basically they just call a bunch of people or send out a bunch of communicat and companies are supposed to if you want to participate in the survey so this is one of the flaws with a lot of the different government data not just private data like joltz is that response rates have absolutely cratered for a lot of that's one of the reasons that the household survey was disagreeing with the NFP survey for so long it's really it's a difficult way to u to gather data so to in my mind it's this is that the response rates are bad 2020 changed everything it changed everyone's opinion about the government and surveys and everything some people are just angry and they they don't answer the call but also the fact that the government's spending all this money that's showing up in in interesting spots is also OB fisca the true signals we normally get from the market so I'm if I'm not getting the true signals my I automatically kind of maybe think that things are worse than they're being portrayed and you can say that it that I think it's political or that I'm a conspiracy theor that's fine that's just what my experience has led me to by the way so just to wrap it all up in a bow I think the labor Market's trash I think Jay Powell knows that that's why I think even himself is thinking maybe about going 50 don't don't hold back I mean don't hold back honor for just to give it to you straight what I think by the way what I think isn't always right but what I think is what I think right and that makes you like the most human guest we we have here it really does even in your your private Twitter sometimes you're you know you're on the rails sometimes you're off the rails but you you say what you think exactly and I don't need to be always right yeah I know yeah I know and either do I well the one thing I like about this report and I agree with you that the trend long-term Trend matters here and I don't have any Fred charts up right now uh because this just came out but it has all these categories right it has these great categories you know Levels by industry is an example right and you could kind of really drill into whatever industry you're interested in and you can get you can get the answer you know and then when you get to the government one like a lot of people like to look at government jobs well are these all government jobs that you know why are we so strong on the jobs um but then you could even drill in there you know you could you could even look at within that scope of government it's not all federal government it's state and local education we have state and local excluding education that's police that's fire that's Services we need so that's why I like looking at this data because it gives you real a balanced sense of category even if this even if the survey is not as strong as it used to be sir and I will throw in too that I also like to look at the health care part of it too because Healthcare education and government they're all related and they're all not indicative of a productive Trend and there so that's why I look at those the most and that's what's been really troubling me over the last year yeah that totally that make that makes a lot of sense for sure yeah so all right well that's I mean that's just one one of many many job related reports this week right we have challeng of gray tomorrow we got 8p tomorrow we got non-firm payrolls Friday we got jobless claims I mean a lot of a lot of job data coming in so I don't know if you saw this too Danielle de Martino boo remember the the great 88,000 job revision uh Daniel de Martino Booth did some dig digging into that and said even that is going to revise lower to approximately 975,000 and she went by the county data the individual data and she that's what that's her claim too and I trust her I mean she used to be with the fed too so she came out with this about a week ago too so even that is probably obfuscating it to the upside ah let's look at stocks my favorite thing yeah by the way I I I was talking with Eric Norland who's now that you know he's the blue Platinum replacement at the CME Group um and even he's the nicest guy ever invented and he's just the nicest guy and even he raised his eyebrows at that revision that that the amount of that revision he was a little bit taken off by it eventually Jimmy we're going to get everybody to think like we do or more me than you but you're in that camp too right yeah but to get the data right like you mentioned the county data right so we get we get local data that gets pushed up to the feds eventually and you know a lot of these counties they're you know they got bigger fish to fry than to push this data up yeah there's no question right so that's probably one of the reasons that it's a little bit more accurate yeah yeah but in any event yeah more data maybe better I don't know but yeah so we could kind of look at this through the we could look at these markets through the lenses lens of now the Dual mandates again on the other side right the Dual mandates on is is full employment and I think that that's what they are going to pursue when you heard J Powell on August 24th at Jackson will supposing he's he was very very clear he said the time has come for policy to adjust which by the way even little things like this the time has come for policy adjust not from me to adjust policy he's almost distancing himself from the action like this is just what's got to happen now which is kind of a little bit of a cowardly maneuver in my opinion but yes it is time for policy to adjust oh I love like that screen so what are we pricing in for um for this meeting like a 35% Chance by the way though I'm thinking in your Paul comment right now and I'm I'm I'm slowing my mental process with you for a little bit um because the other fomc people they do the opposite they do I think I think I think where H pH it differently you're absolutely right I never thought about that yeah that's interesting isn't it right uh so right now we are at 47% for a um 50 basis point cut at the meeting correct that's how you read that I usually go with the bar chart one yeah and this is and this literally has changed by about uh 133% in the last 3 days yeah that's thought it was a lot smaller it was like 33 or 32 the other day but yeah yeah so a lot of times people think oh what are the what's the FED seeing that we're not that they're going to go 50 basis points I think what it is is this is that they're not seeing anything that we're not I think Jerome Powell because you have to ask yourself is he lowering rates because he thinks the economic condition is deteriorating quickly or is he lowering rates because he think the economic conditions is slowing a bit and we're Above This mythical neutral rate the rate in which any anything above it is restrictive anything below it is stimulative he believes it and he said that before that he believes we are above the neutral rate now analysts come out there and think think are thinking like what is the neutr rate just based on the thing he said the most consensus guess seems about three be about three and a half percent that he wants to start angling back to on the fed's funds rate so you know that would be by when will we get to there by about March right yeah yeah so I'm looking for my red marker there so all right so right now we're we're we're over here right we're we're effective fund rate is about 5.31 right so yeah this would be one two three four this is 1% right here okay right so then 2% gets us to 3.25 and that's not until June by based on Futures market so there's in another thing I'd add about the CME fedwatch tool and the FED funds Market in general too it it always it overestimates in both Direction the the cuts and the eases because it's not really indicative of what the market actually thinks it's what trading desks think could happen and there's some risk manager who walks around and point punch punches someone on the shoulder and says dude if they do cut 100 basis points in the next quarter your position is going to be swamped you need to hedge against that so they go into the FED funds fatures market and hedge and it tends to push it in different directions which I find interesting oh that's a good point right and that could skew this report I think could EAS too so yeah because because it is like even in the the the trades I've been brokering you can tell the question today because in the sof for options is what happens if they go 50 so okay shoot we have to be covered for that so then they actually becomes in the market self-fulfilling to push the market prediction to 50 like it has because people need to hedge for that eventuality so let me ask you this question should we should we have more regular fomc meetings once once a month well no I don't I barely even think we should have f i yeah absolutely yes but the whole transparency thing has absolutely turned around and bit us because when when it came out and and Barack Obama wanted to have the most transparent federal reserve ever and they're going to give all these this information well they realized after about the first couple months that that's just another tool for them to steer the market so if they're not really giving a 100% what their opinion is at the moment but they're giving what they want to steer the market to well that's a very little value if it's being presented as one thing and then it's really another and two this is most important I hate to be in the spot of being a Fed Basher all the time but the reality is this is that they are not very good prognosticators of what their own actions are going to be any more than three weeks out beyond that they get to me just as much in the muck as we are yeah no I hear you I hear you all right so less me less less is better right what was that what was that a Miller Light commercial less yeah it wasn't like something more something yeah here I and I like the price action today because those are the 8 and 21 Mike Arnold um moving averages right there that it's come back into the middle of right yeah so I'm all I got the harmonics on the side I got his I got his moving averages yeah he's H he's addictive so I like the movement today if I see some strength today because we're still you know we're still miles above the 200 200 day moving average we went to the rot Zone we turned around let's get can we go look at a shorter term chart as to think how I may actually be uh trading this today yeah here's a 10-minute chart right here again I got to move my harmonics out of the way and make 60 Minute yeah go to any minutes you want let's get 60 up here man so funny I've been trading Aussie Euro and Canada today and every chart looks exactly the same on the 60 Minute yeah yeah so what's that line you just drawn in because you know that's let me let me let me move this over here all right which line are you talking about right about there the top of that candle right here yeah there to the top yeah either one like both box yeah so that's that's the the session high right now that's 5565 right and then uh the top of the well the top of the contemporary candle right now is 5560 yeah so I I want to see a a new 60-minute bar close above the top of that candle maybe the next one before I jump jump right into this what harmonic is that on the side that that lines up with so I'm hooking up the all I did uh I just added the I went from low to high so literally this this is zero% this is the high it's the high so yeah a settlement above that then I would switch down to that 10-minute chart uh to see where the entry Point's going to be but I definitely think that you know yesterday just getting just a crap knocked out of the market I think probably was a a little bit of a reaction to the doj coming out against Nvidia too you saw that headline right yeah I didn't see it till this morning um you know yeah they were down % in video was yesterday too but all I can say is this is that it might be perfectly on the up and up but if you're the doj you better make damn sure that what you have is real before you start going after them and because it could disrupt the market considerably and I'm not sure they're sophisticated enough to know that and I'm not saying that they should base their decisions on who to charge and not to charge on the stock market just to be sure when it's invidious the one that's leading the market like it has right and maybe what we don't know is how much back and forth happened with doj and Nvidia until the announcement great great Point that's an excellent point yeah yeah so it's like yeah it's you know certain things you don't do on a Friday afternoon you don't you don't you don't open up certified uh mail from the Department of Justice and you don't look at like doctor test results you wait till Monday you don't want to ruin week till Monday exactly you get it right anyway all right so we'll see how this goes it'll be it'll be it'll be interesting um can we switch over to Gold yeah whoa gold is interesting Gold's kind of let's see GC let's go to Gold so I got I got gold sideways man I got this channel here I got the bottom approximately 257 give or take the the top approximately 2560 I mean we can't shake this level ever since uh middle August no and and I but by the way we haven't been able to shake it since mle August at the same time but there's been a lot of volatility in other assets including Bitcoin the other dollar hedge so I think the lack of volatility over the last these are uh daily bars yes over the last couple weeks to me is very important signal that it still game on to the upside now if I had to take a shot right here just looking are you going to go down to the 60 Minute or no well I just want to kind of point out these Wicks here and this is kind of like this is a I learned this from Dan Grahams a really long time ago these big Wicks down there's three of them right and this is telling telling me that when the market when the market price gets into this rectangle here buyers are finding value buyers are finding value they're pushing it back up these are re relatively large Shadows compared to the bodies of the candle so you know it's going to be hard to break down to the downside so what's left upside so that's why I was going to say just just solely based on this chart if I was forced to trade this today I'd be I'd be taking a long position in it now I'd go down to the 60 Minute and the 10 minute to try to figure out exactly where my entry points are going to be which I'm again most people know who are watching this that I am long quite a bit of gold uh so I don't know how I I like to more trade it to the short side to hedge my position but yeah this does nothing to dissuade me at all either I think it's a buy right here up to those High candles from uh yeah right to there what what's that level so that's uh 2538 yeah I think it's a buy right here up to there I mean I actually think like if I was down in front of my trading cam trading screens right now I may even that this is the trade boom yeah and again the fundamental Story the fundamental story is we know too you know the FED is getting easier and easier he believes is a neutral rate is lower if things actually start to really do fall apart then he'll ease a lot more quickly but at the end of the day what I care more about is that when the FED starts to increase its balance sheet that's when I think gold is going to fly so far they've let their balance sheet except for the svb debacle back in a year ago March the uh the balance sheet has been on a pretty steady decline that's started to slow down a little bit now but as soon as the fed's balance sheet meaning the more stuff they start to buy then I think gold is going to fly because that's going to be kind not the last straw that would be too hyperbolic but a definite punch in the face to the dollar okay so that so that so that brings the dollar down yeah exactly so but and again the dollar when I say the dollar a lot of times people think I'm talking about it against currency basket or against the Euro Yen whatever too I'm talking about the dollar domestically and you can measure that against gold against a million different things against corn against Real Estate against Bitcoin I think the most important measure of the dollars value is gold because those are things people in this country aren't they're not buying a lot of Yen you know but they are buying a lot of stuff so the stuff that the G better gauge is gold and silver copper things like that yeah and this is and this is the CME gold Futures Contract which is priced in dollars there's other exchanges where you could where you could have a gold contract priced in Yen like you said yeah so you're gonna see different prices and you're gonna see different price price action right and Dennis gartman always used to talk about that like he'd rather be which I've always viewed it as two trades he'd always say like i' I'd like to be long gold but long gold and Yen um meaning essentially it's two trades for us we'd be short Yen and long gold just to approximate that trade like I don't have I don't have yen to buy gold you know what I mean but you're you're what you're saying is the yen is going to go lower and gold is g to go higher and Yen terms so it's really just two trades but yes I I I think that there are other currencies that are worse off if you look at the dollar pric in yen Jesus it's gone through the moon because the Yen lost like 38% of its value in a couple years time yeah yeah so in essence you could even think of this as a currency pair like a currency pair right gold versus US versus Aussie gold versus anything yeah that's the way I do that's the way I do look at it so this is gold versus the dollar yes yeah and right now I'm actually short this is a just a trade I'm short Aussie Euro and Canada just recently got them like 10 minutes ago right before I got on so you know I have my stops put in maybe I'll be stopped up by now but I hope not so why so you think the dollar is going to be stronger against those three currency pairs uh I just this was a very short-term trade it was just a technical analys thing there was no fundamental behind it it just all those threes I don't know if you saw those on the 60-minute had exploded up to what I considered resistance so I just sold it at the resistance I put stops in just above it just because I was going away from the screen and I want to still had to have some action yeah gotcha okay that makes total sense and we have a few more days left other other than non-farm payrolls and all the other data that's coming I do believe uh this Saturday maybe or maybe Monday we're in the quiet period right so the FC folks can't aren't supposed to say anything right they have they rarely break that though that you said aren't supposed to they they're pretty good at that aren't they I haven't I hav't I'll call them if they do break it no I you know there was a couple of times when um uh I want to say Mary daily but somebody they were talking about Bank regulation some not any not you know related to interest rates right interesting or monetary policy I should say Okay um so let's I want to ask your opinion on copper I'm gonna go to a copper chart I'm gonna pull up a daily first good yeah let's go broad oh how did I do that I'm sorry about that um click on that baby all right here we go so pretty big selloff all of Arnold's moving averages are crossing under yep um have a little bit of a dogee today a pause if you will uh after the really pretty big Benchmark sell off yesterday what do you think's going on here so if you go back like five days when it broke out what I thought was significant resistance um so this is no go lot down lower down lower right there that resist when it be when it went through there and it capped higher to me it looked like the all clear but all the you have to worry about the fake break and the turnaround and I think we've s seen that now that we've come back through that broken through some levels some support levels and gone down below all the pertinent moving averages I think it's it's a it's a negative it's a sell right now despite the fact that I am long it and I think it goes down to those lows I think it holds in there I think the fundamental story is still relatively good um you know some copper shortages I think what it's reflecting right now is just really really confusing and leaning weak news coming out of China and Asia and I think it goes down back to there which is what that about 385 down there uh yeah the very low low tip is about three spot 92 okay three spot 92 that's what I think my near-term my near-term target is that and again I still think the fundamental story for copper over the next 10 years is very very bullish but that doesn't help traders in the short term so I think it could move it could move lower and should move lower is that partially because of the electrification of the world yeah electrication in the world think about what the electric needs too when you're talking about AI um needs a tremendous amount of it too electricity prices like everybody we they're going through the roof already and we're trying to Electrify everything we're going to need more stuff to support this trade um we had doomberg on our podcast the other day I know you're familiar with him right yeah and he was talking about you know the electrition but he interestingly too he talked about the technology of hybrids versus the technology of full in plug-in electrics start talking about it like being a thousand times better and he made the case very very eloquently but the point is we are moving toward electric um if Trump gets office will be moving toward it a lot slower but the individual states will still probably get even more aggressive that's what California's OS has always been is they're getting pressure from the federal government they'll like they'll double down on their uh electric initiatives and I think they will I think we will need more copper everybody who that I know that has a hybrid loves it I know and everyone I know who has a purely electric are split down the middle some really like it but if they live in cold climates like I do it's not as good in the cold and starting to sour on a little bit too hybrid was always the technology that we should have gone with it it literally charges itself as it rides I mean what kind of perfect technology is that just because we use a little bit of fossil fuel the zealots didn't like it crazy to me just crazy yeah and really Japan was on this long before anybody else I mean the Toyota was it Prius or whatever it was that was that's that's been around for for over a decade yes and it was generally genuinely doing what all they want the environmentals we we could have used less fossil fuel and now the fact that that technology has gotten into all the more better selling brands the SUVs y Honda I just went to buy my wife got in a car accident about a month ago and I went to buy a new CRV and the hybrid it was unfortunate is that it was like eight grand more so I didn't buy it but if we can get that price a little bit more competitive I think it's a layup to buy those cars yeah yeah yeah I'm not in the market jimmmy I I buy cars and keep them till the wheels fall off that's what I wanted to do my wife some guy went to Lady went through a um a red light and absolutely crushed my wife's favorite car just you should have seen this car it looked terrible and my wife she's okay she was bruised and battered up for a couple weeks but now she's fine but we went and we bought a new CRV and it is the most over engineered massive a car I've ever seen in my life which that irritates me about the product that we got rid of a 2018 May was 17 which was this perfect beautiful efficient CRV you we don't not try fancy cars and the new one now is like oh it's bells and whistles it every time you even slow down like the engine shuts off or emion emissions things it's a mess man what we got let's Pi we have a couple minutes left let's let's go to the longer end of the yield curve the longer end of the duration curve whatever you want to call it this is the 30-year treasury bonds right here and um you know I'm wondering if we're going to if we're if we're not ready for a breakout to the upside I think we are that's what I think I think too and you know that I'm somewhat longer term bullish yields um but this this from a trade too I think a settlement above that exact box that you just drove that Midday wrap-up you just drew is Off to the Races so I definitely think so how are so we know that the FED funds is at the lowest end of the duration curve or yield curve what what what you know what's the potential impact of this right cut on the longer on the longer dated usually usually in a rate cut cycle all these the longer end rates will go down as well just not as much as the short end so the Curve will steepen but it'll be a a bull steepener where the the short end rates are going make are gapping down in 25 and 50 base Point increments at a time and the long end rates should go down as well during that cycle it only then is when we start to the dust start to settle and we're toward the end of the easing cycle that the market will start switching back to the actual fundamentals of supply and demand in anything longer than like fiveyear treasuries because that's those are the ones that the FED can't control unless they do quantitative easing again which my base case thesis is they probably will at some point in time and that's one of the reasons I'm long oh what's that chart that's one of my favorite patterns right there that diamond so with that with that in mind and with that in mind and um if you feel like it's the pr all the treasuries are going to are going to Rally from a price point of view do you uh is it better to like get long the two-year versus the 30y year or it doesn't matter I am long the steepener that's what I the twos versus 10 so I am long in price terms long twoyear and short 10 year but in in yield terms I am short the twoyear and long the 10 year and that trade's been working nicely I've riding it from it's like you know negative 80 negative 50 to now it's basically even money yeah looking at uh no no this is still bonds up here I was just looking at the I was just looking at the yield really quickly because I have that data here the two and 10 this is the CME micro yield contract so the 10e now I mean it's a 10 basis point normal uh yield curve with respect to those two it's not inverted anymore it's it's normal right now yeah that happened about an hour ago right yeah well yesterday it was five basis points normal yesterday and now it's 10 right so yesterday today the first time so I don't know if gonna continue that but yeah Jim's making money which is the the moral of this story but yeah I like even this breaking out to the downside I think it it heads lower from there yeah oh wait hold it so what am I looking at here no no you're looking at treasury bonds I didn't change anything I'm just looking at I was just looking at and I could change it to a tenure as an example you know what I have the I have the curve here real quickly I know we're we're out of time here I got all sorts of crazy charts this is just a line on close chart drawn in crayon and it's literally the you could see we see we crossed to normal right here on the you know we we parody on the 28th got it okay yeah I didn't know I was looking at there so yeah I think we're going more normal I could see an easily positive sloped um 50 basis points in the next month all right and so you're trading the spread which makes total sense yeah and I've had it on for a long time it's funny that when it was down like Plumbing like negative 100 basis points like you start to ask yourself the question how how low how inverted can it be I mean it's it's already the most inverted in history and then the question becomes well how long could it last as we found out it lasts a long long time but I had a small position on I didn't take a ton of heat on it but I had to just wait forever for it to come around and it did yeah gotcha all right man well awesome Jimmy we're out of time what's the best way to people to find you I know you got the podcast going and thank you other stuff so so much for all your support I do a lot of stuff for the CME on their website but also Jim urio on Twitter I'd like to engage on Twitter boring uh trading by the way is a lot of times boring you're just looking at stream screens all day so I have plenty of time to go back and forth with trolls on Twitter so fear not also the Futures Edge podcast we'd appreciate it if you watch that too and thank you guys for all your support from Ninja yeah no awesome podcast I follow you on Twitter appreciate all that stuff Jimmy thanks for for being here looking forward for our next time together thank you guys all right folks coming up next midday wrapup with Michael Burke we'll be right back let's take a quick [Music] break so you want to be a Trader well you should know you're not alone over the past several years record numbers of people have set up their very own online trading accounts there's never been an easier time or more inexpensive way for do-it-yourselfers to get started trading the financial Market better Futures start now with the ninja Trader mobile app with the power to customize how you trade on the go you can quickly and easily Place trades with a single swipe and view index Financial energy metal crypto and more Futures markets and access over 40 built-in indicators plus custom indicators all from your phone stay up to date at all times by enabling notifications get started today at ninjatrader tocom technical analysis Made Easy A starting place for new Traders when do I place my trade where do I set my stop loss or profit Target all good questions that Traders need to answer on a regular basis one of the ways Traders get to those answers is by using technical analysis in a historical price [Music] chart join over 800,000 users who trust ninja Trader as their Futures Trading platform of choice access the world's most popular Futures markets and trade seamlessly across devices including PC Mac or mobile get started with $50 margins and commissions as low as 9 cents need support we're available 24 hours a day 5 days a week want to personalize your trading setup connect with our ecosystem of thirdparty developers building trading indicators and more visit ninjatrader docomo app with the power to customize how you trade on the go you can quickly and easily Place trades with a single swipe and view index Financial energy metal crypto and more Futures markets and access over 40 built-in indicators plus custom indicators all from your phone stay up toate at all times by enabling notifications get started today at ninjatrader tocom join over 800,000 users who trust ninjatrader as their Futures Trading platform of choice access the world's most popular Futures markets and trade seamlessly across devices including PC Mac or mobile get started with $50 margins and commissions as low as 9 cents need support we're available 24 hours a day 5 days a week want to personalize your trading setup connect with our ecosystem of thirdparty developers building trading indicators and more visit ninjatrader [Music] [Music] hey everybody we are back for for Midday wrapup uh joined today by Tom Snider CMT Tom thanks for being here Mike it's my pleasure trading Club was fun we had a bunch of interesting trades there um one of the ones that uh one of the ones we were looking at I thought I'd bring it up to get your opinion here is is crude oil so in the middle of our trade OPEC made an announcement let's go let's go to my chart here and this is the five minute crude oil chart so there's that big green candle opec's announcement Traders absorbed it immediately brought it back down not all the way back down but I thought this was an interesting pattern is is that a real pattern or is that uh yeah that is that's a that's a wedge pattern right so you know I kind of go by the by the idea that if you can see it Mike it's a pattern right if if your eyes see something it's a pattern but in this case it's a wedge pattern it is just one of those patterns where we have uh consolidation right you've got lower highs higher lows where is this Market going to go eventually those two supportive lines Collide and it's where does where does the price exit that pattern in this case it exited on the downside but it wasn't a decisive breakdown so I would look at it like this now it's more about where is it in relation to each trend line right so is the is the is the resistance trend line going to win out um is the supportive trend line going to win out uh or or is it you know just one of those things where it just trades sideways it's interesting that there we're at an interesting level here one of the interesting things that I I saw um and I'm I I'm going to just flip real quick to the daily we'll come back here but this if we close here Tom around this area this will be the lowest close in crude oil since May or June or July of 2023 if I go to the weekly that close is lower than all of these I mean we've Wicked down lower than that on the daily this is the weekly by the way this is the weekly chart but we Wick through that level but we never close below it until you go all the way back here till June of 2023 that I think is is significant oh yeah for sure um you know we are trading at lows you know multi-year lows you know to your point that's two years ago but if you go back even further that's kind of this the floor for for a few years yeah it's it's it's interesting and again I think you know we can attribute this right to the idea that the economy is slowing down we're we saw that a little bit in jolts today uh we've seen it in some of the manufacturing indexes that that are coming out and you know crude oil is one of those one of those kind of like like copper is it's it's a measure of the economy and what the perceived you know future of the econom could be yeah now the the benefits of course lower crude oil prices we should see gasoline prices go down although they don't go down as fast as they go up as we know um so you know if you're looking for a silver lining I don't want the economy to shutter I don't want it to to to to slow down right I want a vibrant economy but if this is if this is saying hey you know what the economy might be slowing down which is you know kind of what we need to keep inflation down then you know know this is part of that this this lower crude price should keep inflation um at Bay for a little while you know I agree and the other thing is you know one of the things that oops what happened there one of the things that Jim talks about is that crude oil is in backwardation right so not only are we seeing weaker crude oil prices now but when this contract rolls it's going to roll to a lower price so I think that's that's very telling as well right future prices are lower um you know one thing we were talking about also Mike was The Head and Shoulders pattern on crude that was evident in the intraday and we had a price Target we had done our measure but I will say this when we get some news that changes the thinking of what the price of crude is or should be then you can I wouldn't abandon the idea of that price Target but it certainly throws throws a wrench in the plans right so you know if there was no OPEC news you could you could kind of see that this Market was trending towards our measured move price but sometimes it doesn't get there and that's why you know kind of mentioned earlier how happy are you with what percentage of that Journey to the me to the measured price because anything can change and we saw it live as it happened yeah I mean I I agree with you I think it creates a reset uh when you get those kind of news items everything before that is thrown away and you've got to kind of look at it a new and see what what where the Market's going to go from here yeah uh let's take a look at a major market index do you have a choice well we did do some trades right we we looked at the Russell Russell is up the most out of all the um for major indices um and we had this trade idea of going long on a breakout uh when it broke above the um pretty much the opening Range High and my target was trying to get to the pivot now we didn't get there um the pivots at 2176 so it it was just shy of there um but it gave it the the old College try and we since we had trailed our stop up got got out at a higher price than had we just left our original stop in my my original well my trailing stop price uh was boy was that 2166 so you know we didn't quite get our Target but we did we did Trail our stop up to better than break even you know and now we see a little bit of a pullback so maybe we've seen the range of the day and now we're trading between the high and the low yeah I mean you know we're we're just shy of the the average range for the day maybe about 10% less than but we have we have the rest of the afternoon the problem is the problem is we're in the middle now right right so we have a long way to go to make that extra 10% on the upside or downside but um you know this this Market's held up pretty well there's some really good support here um but you know we closed near the low yesterday and so you know I kind of felt like we would see some more follow through today what's interesting though if I go to the Daily T this this is kind of an interesting idea so here um believe it or not with all of this crazy action today this is a key reversal up pattern that's forming yeah so we have a lower low that's lower than the low of many bars to the left but but if we can stay in positive territory close above the close of yesterday um there's also two really key moving averages there the 21 and the 50 are right on top of each other so if we could just push a little bit higher we might see some good follow through tomorrow right and when you see those moving averages tangled up like that when you you know even a slight move higher could could change the 21 to come above the 50 right and technically that could be a cross back above it isn't decisive and you know I wouldn't make of it you know uh something to launch the market but it it follow through the next day I think is is certainly when you see a big candle like yesterday and then a dogee you know to me that's like wow this these sellers couldn't Advance the market it's it's buying time well I'm going to be bullish if we can close above 2060 today okay that's your we get some follow through tomorrow 2160 is your Line in the Sand 2160 yes awesome okay I'm marking that on my chart uh NASDAQ just under 19,000 so there's my Line in the Sand for nasda ndaq 19,000 this could also be you know this could also end up being a key reversal today right now in this market the ichimoku cloud is right where we are so it's a thin Cloud um but you know after you know after yesterday you know if we could get back above 19,000 I think that would be bullish here yeah I I agree I mean you know these these Stoppers I call these little dois Stoppers right they stop the Trend um you know it it's even more of a stopper like you said it's more not just a stopper it's a key reversal well what happens if it gets you know rallies into the close and we get halfway to uh you know we get to the middle of yesterday's now you've got a piercing line like all these things just get better and better as the market you know goes in the other direction and shows reversal that'll also the high today is right at right at the anchored VAP from the low of the year so that is interesting to me um you know can we close above that uh that's about level it's about let's see if I have this on here about 19100 roughly let's call it 19100 to make it make it even so that would be a little bit of a a a boon I think you know one more piece of evidence that this might be turning back bullish you know I was I was surprised on yesterday I think this I I'm bullish obviously this Market through the through the rest of the year for the most part and this kind of surprised me but these three candles back in in Late July surprised me too so I I think you know Jim made a good point that it was the first of the month maybe that had something to do with it um but you know as I always say you know right now everybody got paid on the 1 or the 30th they put money into the 401K those four 1K funds flow into the mutual funds and those guys have to buy stock right and so you know I I think I definitely think the first few days of the month maybe around the 15th there's there's there's some support based on that as well even if the market is negative there is some buying happening um at this time of the month so I think that that helps us a little bit it's a good point uh let's look at gold [Music] we talked about this quite a bit this is the daily chart first so that that 2550 really a a a glass ceiling there can't really get much above that see if I can give a little more room here um that 20 that 21 SMA that's usually My pullback Level and that's kind of right where we are now we've Wicked through it but we haven't closed below it yet yeah right this is this is showing signs of a little bit of a turning over right so I've got my eight up and since about Friday of of last week uh we were above the eight and now we're Friday kind of Switched now we're below the eight and we're still being supported by the 21 but you can imagine if this starts getting a little more more bearish we could eventually cross below the 21 and these things kind of happen in order or happen you know they don't all happen at once sometimes sometimes they just gradually change we're still above the ichimoku cloud though we're still above the 50 that's trending upwards I mean there's there's a lot of sub uh longer term ideas that that were bullish gold but you know the change in trend has to start somewhere and usually it starts in this the the the faster moving averages failing and that's uh 21 fails then I'm get a a little more worried here's here's one of the reasons I think we we could be kind of bottoming out here I'm going to draw a line here uh right at 2500 I think that's a good psychological support level but if you if you look closely we didn't Wick down to it or through it so there was there's some buyer anticipation or or maybe what we sometimes call resting buy orders at that 2500 level and we couldn't get quite down there buyers came before it got down there they didn't want to miss it and and there there there you I think that's bullish as well yeah that that does make sense they're not letting it get to that psychological level uh let's take a look oh just real quick I want to look at um I want to look at the the daily es vix is is a little concerning um let's see if we can get there it is there we go so so you know yesterday obviously we would expect vix to spike up which it did it spiked up in from all the way from neutral to very bearish uh All In All in One Candle had a little bit of a a wick at the top there but we still a green candle closing above that 20 that was very bearish heading in into today and and we we did move a little bit lower we have a lower low today but we didn't really see that follow through that we would have expected and again I think I think that has a lot to do with with the strength of you know the strength of the market but and today you know we did Wick up higher uh early but again we're still in that very bearish territory so even though everything we've talked about so far is somewhat positive and somewhat bullish I have to take I have to take vix at face value and it's telling me that I need to worry about the market to the downside right and and it's kind of like a a lever or some sort of dial right that we dial the market up Vic should dial down we don't if we see continuation in the market of of failure to advance then that vix might stay above your your level that says very bearish yep so I'm again I I'm I'm thinking based on everything we've seen here maybe this will be a swing High we'll see a lower vix tomorrow we'll see it dip back into maybe bearish or even neutral tomorrow if we if we get some good follow through but the fact that that the fact that we are here um just gives me a little bit of Pause by the way Mike SK I'm not GNA say his full name he's at two and a half times his his daily Target he's almost at that 3x that he's looking for so hopefully you can get that before noon and call it a day that's great uh um we talked about gold we talked about crude uh what else is going on here let's take a look at the Japanese Yen that's something we haven't looked at for a while we'll look at it on a daily chart first yeah it was up almost one and a half percent earlier today yeah it's whoa it's um there we go now it doesn't want to change for me oh there we go there it is so this is the daily it's still thinking you know it's funny Jim has trouble with the Japanese Yen sometimes yeah I don't know what that's about this is the daily Yen so again this you know we talk about gold has a ceiling at 2550 this has a a ceiling at that point 007 level and um and we can't really even get there there's always anticip that we can't get there and we've seen that here for for quite a while we had one close back here in early August but that was that just that just hasn't come back and um and again we're in an uptrend right if I scroll this out a little bit the Yen the yen is in a pretty good uptrend had one big pullback to the 21 SMA which is what I use there for the pullback level and again a little bit of a run up but we didn't make a higher run up this is a little bit of a concern to me here yeah this this this is looking a little bit I won't say Divergent because actually RSI um I think you have the RSI on Stokes or Stokes on RSI rather um but the RSI itself is uh trending you know we have these higher lows which is very bullish um but are we're not advancing in the top like you said so we're not taking out those previous Wicks when we do make a Peak High and RSI is kind of reflecting that right RSI is based off the close for the most part so um you know I don't know it's it does look like there might be some weakening coming but i' I'd want to see the importance of those higher lows come into play here and push this market up if I'm bullish the the thing that I'm thinking is and and I we should talk to to Blue about this is that is the rate cut coming in September bullish or bearish for the end and my my initial thinking and I could be completely wrong is that it is bearish for the Yen um and so maybe this site maybe the reason we didn't make another leg up is that's kind of Weighing on this Market a little bit now I would I'm G to I'm going to take issue with that a little bit right so I would argue it's a little bullish because if and you're talking about the rate cut in the FED right now you're not talking because Bank of Japan has Bank of Japan they've been they might raise again sometime in my lifetime but um the the FED is going to be cutting is is that is that bullish or bearish for the yen in my mind it would be be bullish um because that discrepancy between interest rates gets smaller um you know just like when Japanese Yen uh was when I'm sorry when the bank of Japan raised rates we saw a you know that kind of Rose the markets Rose pretty nicely um as we can see you can almost tell in this chart when they when they raised rates pretty specifically um so a cut in the US dollar rate to me would be bullish but that's just kind of a knee-jerk reaction I'm sure it's more complex than the way I'm thinking and you're right blue might be the one to answer that question yeah I think there's I I think the idea that shrinking together is bullish for the Y that's possible um yeah let's let's let's ask let's ask him grams is with us this week too I think we could ask Dan about that oh yeah he he'd be one to ask as well uh what else did I see here kind of interesting um so Bitcoin put two units on and let one run right and during trading Club so Bitcoin is uh over 58 400 yeah that's I mean your your idea was was great right it was S1 roughly S1 to the to the lows and it was a quick trade it was less than 10 minutes I mean it might have been five minutes um but it it and it and it was interesting because it did extend and then it came back and kind of traded around yesterday's lows but now we we we're approaching yesterday's close it's again these these kind of checklists in the ladder of where we want to be you could Envision now that we're making or we're close to making session highs where can we extend to well you know average true range helps us with that 55720 is the low have we achieved the average true range the average true range is about 3,60 so we're looking at 58780 that's right at the pivot yeah that's that's a really good point so I mean this might be worth a second look at a long trade again in the in the in the same Spirit as we did earlier with S1 to the low how about we do the close to the pivot that's a viable trade I think yeah interesting idea we can get above that previous close I think we could have I mean this Market can run 3,000 points higher I mean it's right there's just no telling what this Market can do but if we can get above that previous close and maybe get above the pivot this could be this could be another Runner this Market if we look at the daily right price happiness here is 60,000 there's no question about that right right so um very interesting candle pattern there what is that called that's called a um it's like a hammer I mean dragonfly so dragonfly would be more of a do well see now I'm looking at a different looking at something slightly different yeah that's a dragonfly right there yeah that's a real nice dogee I've got somewhat of a hammer so and that's a key reversal by the way I mean there's a lot of key reversals my my key reversal indicator in the market analyzer is just flashing you know there's a bunch of key reversals so kind of interesting the the one thing I worry about too is is that 200 day moving average it was support yesterday we w we we Wicked to it today we Wick through it we still have a lower high and a lower low so it's looking good like a key reversal but you know tomorrow I think is do we follow through with that key reversal or do we just say look we're still in a downtrend we haven't not much has changed let's let's continue down that's the question for me I I agree I completely agree uh Tom this has been fun we're out of time uh thanks everybody for joining us today Tom thanks for joining me oh my pleasure and uh I will let's see who's Jim Jim's got Jim's got bar I should have it but Jim is fing in for me that's right you know this this three-day holiday three-day weekend with the holiday kind of messed me up but tomorrow tomorrow we will have not only will we have a couple of new segments but Anthony crudeli will be back oh fantastic at develop your Edge so we'll have develop your Edge at 10:30 and then we'll have the ninja Trader book club at after that segment at 11 o'clock and then we'll have an ity moku Mike you and I will do an itchy moku review uh for some of the major markets you know kind of shorter segments but um a little more focused yeah that'll be fun thanks everybody for joining us uh don't miss Jim at bars closing at 315 uh thanks so much have a great afternoon good luck in your trading we will see you 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