ES & NQ TRADING - Weekly Outlook - "Down we go - Where will it Stop" - 8/5-8/9

hey what's going on guys this is Aaron with mind Unbound trading date is uh August 3rd hope you're having a great weekend uh purpose of this video is just to do a top down analysis the EM mini S&P 500 in the NASDAQ try to get a better idea of what's going on in the auction and perhaps some areas where we can manage risk along the way if you are interested in my daily plans private Discord uh indicators and things like that uh we'll go over some of the indicators later feel free to click the link in the show notes below what we're looking at here is the EM mini S&P 500 uh these candles are they just happen to be 80 minutes uh because I wanted to zoom out and show the March high and I talked about this balance here on Twitter a little bit last week and in last week's weekly Market Outlook so I want to focus on the Confluence here between the March swing High the 100 day moving average and the bottom of this balance extension and so I'm going to zoom in and we had a really nice rather Perfect Balance here when we kept finding a buyer uh or short covering down here by 5433 and then resistance at 5533 it created a perfect 100 Point balance which last week we broke above retested from the top held made it up to the halfback tried to find continuation up to 5633 I was hoping for a move to the top of that to do a little throw over of this prior little swing High here and to me that would have set up a nice short we never were able to get there uh selling pretty much drove us right back into uh balance and you know the way balance rules work once this failed back below and started to find acceptance you could Target the other side of balance came all the way down reach the other side of balance started to find acceptance and spent some time below got a retest here August 2nd so Friday on the pre-market data at 8:30 failed to retake 5433 which was the bottom of the prior balance traded all the way to 5333 a perfect 100 Point extension from the prior balance okay also right at the bottom of that bounce and it did bounce at 5333 to the tick you had a nice trade here for about 15 points came back down looked below by a couple of ticks before trading all the way back to the halfback the halfback of a 100 Point balance from 50 uh 333 is 50 uh 385 50 points and then we kind of balanced in this lower half of the extension so the key here for me is going to be obviously last week's low and do we find acceptance below 5333 uh we could be in for a potential bounce phase here but there are some things I want to uh point out so I'll go over to the monthly actually this is the weekly let's take a look at the monthly now this month has obviously just started just uh two trading days in there uh but last month 35 million contracts traded uh much more than the prior several months so um there was quite a bit of distribution in this area we pop up and failed uh right at this Red Zone that we gave last week it tried to hold above it you can see that we tried to find some support at 5560 bounced up failed again uh and then we saw a continuation to the downside now this Red Zone was kind of capping the bottom of that balance that I just went over and once below retest and failed 53 3350 is that March swing high that we just went over now there's only two days in this month so I can't make much of the monthly volume profile but you can see how much of the last two days volume uh was put down here at the lows showing signs of acceptance of that break uh below now where could potential bounces come from if we were to uh find continuation lower uh I would look to some of these red zones below for potential bounces uh I do feel like lower prices are ahead uh but it does not mean we don't bounce out of here first and find resistance we may come all the way back up to this 35 to 47 area or bounce back up to 85 to 92 uh would not surprise me uh where we would then find Contin tion to the downside from one of those areas if we start to find acceptance back above 5447 uh I would back off shorts uh it could lead to a much higher bounce uh potentially retesting uh the top of the prior balance at 5533 uh finding continuation above that I think you lay off shorts Al together uh because then I would look for a retest in this area to get long moving over to the weekly which is going to give us a little bit better information and kind of lay out what I just went through this volume profile on the right is a 180-day um volume profile and you see this big low volume area here now I was expecting more defense in this area and we did see some defense we started to balance above it putting in that balance that we just discussed ultimately failing and then grinding through the that big low volume area and finding resolution and acceptance on the bottom closing the week down there as well uh and the one other thing I want to point out again is volume so if you look at the white numbers here you know basically all the way up you're looking at 5 to 6 million 7 million sometimes uh on the way up then dropping into the fours and then you start to see it creep up to uh 6 and A2 and then it goes at the top it's 92 million over 9 1.2 million and then last week 11.4 million so volume is intensifying on the way down which is not abnormal uh but uh it can be to me some signs of bottoming if that volume uh does intensify uh enough and I would say I don't want to say a bottom but a intermediate bottom where we may start to see a bounce if we start to see more capitulation uh that volume increases a lot of times I'm looking for that for signs of a reversal back to the upside now as I said before uh if we do find continuation lower I'll be looking at these red zones below for potential bounces and when I say bounces I'm I'm I'm more of a scalper so I Look to those areas for bouncers uh maybe 5 to 20 points uh if it continues then great if not then I take my profits uh but we do have this big hvn down here here at 5244 as well and then below this Zone from 52 uh 22 to 5235 again that would be another 100 Point extension below 5232 would be another 100 Point extension from this initial balance would be inside of this Red Zone down here and could protect that last big swing low that we had down here so that would be the next major area uh that I would watch if we find continuation lower we' see the increasing volume it's worth a stab in this area if we were to trade down there uh for a long and again back above 92 I think you got to be pretty cautious in here because this could go either way this low volume area hasn't traded a lot it can be quite choppy in those areas they may read vertise these prices and spend some time in there but as long as sellers keep it below 47 they still have a shot here uh moving over to NQ first thing I'll do is back out and look at a chart that I shared last week we had this nice big um uptrend kind of upward sloping um upward sloping Trend to to keep it simple we broke above retested multiple times tried to break above look above and fail retest from the bottom fail all the way back to the bottom bounced it up to the 50-day SMA and got shot with a shotgun as I said on Twitter on Friday uh now we have the 200 day down here at 787 so let's look at some of the higher time frames in NQ this is our monthly and again this monthly volume profile only takes into account the last two days because it is only August 3rd but you can kind of see here we opened the month up here towards the top of the month and right at the bottom of the prior month's value so right at last month's value area low and immediately liquidated from there leaving a lot of Trapped Longs up here so now we have this interesting thing where we've been trapping shorts the whole way up leaving them behind now we have a fairly significant full two months of potential Longs trapped above us and we find ourselves continuing to auction lower building volume lower uh looked a little bit below this LVN that I pointed out last time we traded here uh and I would be looking to see if we find continuation uh to the downside I do think that there is more downside ahead that does not mean we don't bounce up into this 860 to 960 area first again acceptance above that I'd be looking for a retest of some of these areas Up in Here by 145 1945 to 2011 but if we immediately uh begin to trade lower uh would be looking for continuation probably through this uh 300 to 27 18 300 to 217 area uh and be looking for more around this 17971 uh area for a retest down here by 18053 to 791 or 971 sorry get backed up with all the numbers in inq looking at the weekly I'm going to point out the same thing again here okay we obviously one other thing to point out is that we ended monthly one time framing higher both in es and NQ moving back to the weekly here again I want to focus on these volume numbers okay so the whole way up we're looking at 2 million 2 and a half million at the top we crack 3 million 3.87 3.7 3.79 one thing you're going to see at the bottoms and Q we get around 4 million so I'll be watching this week to see if we crack 4 million at the end of the week the last time we cracked 4 million was here the time before that if you go all the way back that we cracked 4 million was here so uh the last two Bottoms in NQ have cracked 4 million contracts on the weekly now we got pretty close here so maybe that's enough but if I do see this crack 4 million uh by the end of next week week I would be a bit cautious on riding out shorts into that area so um we are weekly one time framing lower we continue to make new weekly lows uh so the weekly trend is down the monthly trend is imbalance daily trend is down uh and we have just below the current weekly low this big very pronounced high volume node uh right at 300 18300 so that's going to be an interesting spot to watch could be a decent Target on shorts uh from wherever you're at to reduce some risk uh obviously if we start to find acceptance below that it could take us down into some of these other zones I'm not going to try and speak them out loud but uh you can go ahead and screenshot it and copy them if you'd like back above uh 705 they're going to trap a fair amount of volume down here of perhaps late Sellers and you may see a little bit more of a squeeze out of this area and I would Target up here by uh 19060s to 19100 area uh could be an important spot for sellers to defend so that's what I would be looking for in that area if you look at the weekly Top kind of topped out right at the bottom of this new contract and these multi-week lows in here popped up there and just got creamed off of that and again leaving a significant amount of volume uh trapped above in these areas so looking at uh moving averages all starting to roll over uh again NQ getting crushed off the 50-day which is the blue one we have the 200 day all the way down here at 787 already well below the 100 day moving average and continuing to move lower NQ sitting right on year-to-date vwap so this is just from January 1st kind of came down did a little look below and now balancing just above uh year-to dat vop that's not an area where I'm looking to take a trade or or look for Longs but we do see that area often acting as support and resistance it's a general area this is on a yearly time frame so this thing can look above or below by 20 to 50 points uh and still fail so it's not the best for scalping uh but it is good to look at on a higher time frame just to get an idea of is this area going to hold or or what's going on here s is nowhere uh close to its year-to-date vwap still has quite a ways to go it's all the way down at 5218 perhaps if we put in some volume next week that moved up to 5233 area and then that would be in Confluence with the extension to the downside and the area I just went through on the uh weekly one more chart we'll go through it because I did talk about actually I'll do two more charts talked about CL last week saw a nice bounce all the way back up to the low volume area from the prior week it's a really nice trade we had some great signals in there all the way up and couldn't take out the prior week's high and then got liquidated um CL is in a fairly strong looking weekly downtrend uh as the economic numbers start to slow I mean it looks to me like slowly roll over I'm not a I'm not a macro Trader so I don't really um use that for my intraday scalping but CL starting to roll over is not a great sign uh in my opinion for the economy rates ripping CL rolling over Market apparently uh rolling over a little bit but I think you still have to focus in on the areas that matter to manage risk unless you're uh more of a monthly uh time frame Trader which I'm more of an intraday Trader so uh those are the areas that I watch one more that I'll go through here and then I'll be done uh I've gone over this chart multiple times you had this multi-month almost year and a half long balance look above fail Target the other side failed had another almost over a year balance finally broke out and found acceptance above a few weeks ago I said if we break above 2100 this thing's going to rip we broke above 2100 and finally broke out we failed and came right back to 2100 got a couple points below it but ultimately 2100 has held so far so even though things are starting to look ugly rty still holding in this upper balance and not dead yet if r2y starts to fail below 2100 and can't get back above a failed retest from the bottom I would look for 2017 and if it breaks below that uh you could be in for an ugly ride to the downside so for now still holding where it needs to but it really is um a bit on life support here it needs to hold this area for me uh to want to attempt Longs and uh small caps so that's what I'm looking at for this week uh one other thing I'll show you is I mentioned I would talk about some of the uh reversal zones from the uh Unbound signals uh this is kind of starting on the July 31st we got a nice little Buy Signal up there reversed on August 1st and we got a retest there uh in the morning of August 1st and failed and we've got nothing but sell reversals the whole way down uh so to me until I start to see some buy zones uh creeping in on this time frame and some of our higher time frames uh if you're curious about this indicator itself it does have seven different time frames so for each market so for NQ you have seven different time frames all the way up to 4X which is very large time frame and for Es as well so uh this is right about in the middle so this is a medium high time frame this is a great one that I use for uh intraday trades and looking for intraday Direction and things like that but as of right now downtrend continues uh but I think it at is at some risk of squeezing higher if it does not immediately uh break lower meaning break lower on Monday I don't think I'd want see it spend too much time in here or it's likely to uh draw out some sellers getting nervous and start to squeeze up a little bit and then we'll see what happens at these upper areas so that's all I got for this week again if you're interested in my daily Market plans private Discord uh indicators and things like that feel free to click a link in the show notes below or ask a question you can always reach me on Twitter DMS uh you can ask a question right in the comments on YouTube feel free to hit the like And subscribe button if you find these helpful and I will catch up with you guys next week