2024 Florida Gators Predictions | Record, Over/Under, Superlatives

we got Gator breakdown here we know we're business Gator breakdown because there's never a dull moment in Gator Nation the gator breakdown podcast is ready to go I am your host David Waters you can find me on social media at Gator Dave it is finally game week we have a football game to talk about we got our Gator taking the field on Saturday versus the Rival Miami Hurricanes in to break it all down we'll do this more of a season breakdown we'll get into some Miami talk as well but as we do our Monday before the first game will miles will join me right here every Monday night of course throughout the season this is how we kick it off every year with our will I don't know how many text messages and DMS and Twitter messages I got about they when's the when's the predictions when's the over unders from you and will and I was like guys remember now it's the Monday before the first game so we don't have a previous game to talk about like we will every other Monday night from here on out uh but uh yeah we're getting to it right here always one of our uh always one of our funnest episodes here yeah well I mean it's fun to do this to start with and then it's fun at the end of the year to look back and see how wrong we were um unfortunately we've been wrong in the wrong direction I think the last couple of years so hopefully uh hopefully we're wrong in the right direction ction this year and the team's scoring 50 points and giving up 10 but uh you know this this is one of those things right I mean it's it's fun finally that we're going to get an answer we've been talking all off season about what could happen What should happen who's new who's in who's out you know what's Napier gonna do in his third year and all this sort of stuff and the noise stops at this point for about three hours on Saturday we get to sit down and watch and then the noise starts again on the other side it's either all the people saying I told you he was gonna get the job done or the other people going I told you he was a bum and it doesn't matter there is no in between in this one instate rivalry first game of the year and conclusions will be drawn regardless of what happens in this one so I love it man I love it it's time for the season let's go and we already got Florida State at 0 And1 next that's guys this is what happens when you work together for so long I mean I think we just knew where I was going next well I mean who doesn't love college football right Florida State's already lost you know we're already able to show throw shade at at UI aele and and I'll tell you Florida state has given up more points to teams from Georgia than Florida has over like the last decade so in the last two games that was what I was joking way on the Discord the other day FSU does not need to schedule Georgia Southern Georgia State or kennol state anytime soon wellow or any top 25 teams apparently yeah I've seen that too yeah play play and rank teams not not too not too high for M Norville there at FSU but hey Will that does change in to me that does change the narrative to this weekend's game I put this out on Twitter I mean the perception The Narrative can change for Florida pretty quick because you know Miami's got the national love right now Florida state has some of that national love too and now the perception can change with just a win over Miami that Florida is the team to be in the state I mean Florida State already having a loss you go and beat Miami head-to-head the other big three in the state of course you got UCF down the road and you will play Florida State at the end of the season but with that L already with the talk of Florida in this tough schedule and all the pressure on Billy Napier in year three with that loss to FS with that loss to Georgia Tech already Florida gets a win over Miami perception narrative is a little bit better that hey maybe Florida is the team to beat in the State against those AC Rivals yeah I mean I think a lot of it depends on how Florida plays I mean you know you want well I know you don't but I'm saying in terms of the national perception right if you if you went on a last second field goal against Miami everybody goes hey that was a good win for Florida you went by three touchdowns and everybody goes whoa like what's going on down there in Gainesville all the culture talk all the talk about Napier getting his guys in all that sort of stuff you know you have a full really two weeks because you figure the the the Samford game the next week is going to be one where you know we're talking about DJ lagway we're not talking about how does Florida get the job done this week and so you really set yourself up with a convincing win to to jump into the first half of the Season we've talked talked about all offseason right that that Florida has an opportunity to start out hot this year even with what looks like a tough back end of the schedule but you know given Jordan Travis's departure in Florida State maybe that last game of the year is now winnable you think about if the same thing happens with LSU with Jaden Daniels being gone maybe that one's winnable and so you know I saw Dave wonderlick posted something about you know maybe Florida's schedule isn't really the gauntlet that everybody thinks it is now I think a team like Kentucky or a team like Tennessee or even maybe a team like UCF is going to end up being better than maybe people thought at the start of the year I think it'll I think it'll kind of even it out there'll be some teams that go up and some teams that go down overall but look I mean you I get it as Florida fans I just want to win right like give me a win I don't care if you like you know have to kick six it back to get the win I don't care if you gotta like tackle the guy at the half yard line like the like the Titans in the Super Bowl you know whatever it takes to get the W at the three to2 Mississippi State burer years ago it'll be that game that you know as a as a Virginia Tech grad as well it be that game where they like missed the field goal at the end of regulation it's what z0 or 3-3 and Frank beer celebrating I don't care man and to be honest if Florida wins on special teams I might be even more thrilled than a three touchdown blowout but uh you know look I yes Florida has an opportunity to establish who they are in the state we've talked about recruiting we've talked about locking down the state you know our old buddy Bill Sykes he used to talk about how it wasn't necessarily like the Florida Florida State game um the winner of that game had out recruited the other guy in the next recruiting class every year for like a decade when when that happened and you know I'm not a huge believer in wins on the field transition translating over to recruiting but still I mean you start beating the teams that you're competing with on the recruiting Trail and it's it should make a difference especially for a few key guys and hopefully that's the case as well absolutely it's a big game big game I think just to me even got even in some ways even bigger with that loss to Florida State there and kind of the perception of these teams m forward for this 2024 season so uh certainly lots to get into and it's going to be I think a lot of fun big game big game we are going to hear from Billy Napier in his thoughts today on this game getting the season started as well so everybody hit that like button subscribe right here you know a lot of you I see the chat right now you've been with us for so long you know this week starts at all you know right here Monday night every Monday night will and I will get together then you'll have your opponent preview episode and then on Sundays after the game you'll get an episode Maybe even Saturdays according to what time I can get home and all that kind of stuff but uh you'll get that in your postgame show as well either on Saturday late Saturday night or on Sunday so you know the kind of schedule here we do and get break down maybe extra episodes here and there throughout the the the season as well but two by- weeks this year so we know that changes a little bit longer of the Season stretched out across 14 weeks here and we'll be here with you every step of the way right here on Gator breakdown so of course one more time hit that like button subscribe favorite podcast platform right here on YouTube as well and of course uh Fanatics links in the description I know today they were running running 25% off so you can get your Fanatics gear there your Gator gear there at Fanatics all that new Jordan gear looking really good link is in the description should be free shipping deals all throughout the week as well that's kind of just what they've been doing lately but you can support Gator breakdown in that way as well by getting you Gator gear there at Fanatics and of course Gator breakdown plus it's hyping up this week that Discord everybody getting ready for the game access to that Discord adree episodes we'll do a chat I believe on Wednesday night as soon as that depth chart drops Billy Napier will talk we'll have a chat on Gator breakdown plus um so it should be pretty fun there uh link is in the description to join that as well all right well let's hear from Billy NE met with the media of course on Monday today he does this uh of course every Monday during the season here is the opening season press conference from Billy Napier talking about getting ready for the season and just how big of a game this is we're excited about our opportunity um you know our opponent this week uh we're very familiar with obviously he in our state uh we have familiarity their head coach and I have worked together for four years uh in the past uh and they have an a very talented roster you know you do your homework about the recruiting classes uh and certainly the players that they've added to their team in the portal so this presents a great challenge um one that I would like to say uh we've been preparing for going all the way back to January so uh this is an opportunity for our team to start telling their story you know relative to 2024 uh to put on display uh some of the intangibles that we've developed over time through a lot of hard work so you know I do think in these types of games emot will not be um you know needed you know energy uh we won't be lacking for that you know I think the key here is that we execute I think execution will be key I think it's important that between now in the game that all of our decisions reflect kind of our vision for who we want to be um what type of outcome that we want Saturday and then I think it's important there's one way to get um developed confidence and I I think that's how we prepare so it's really critical that we take advantage of all of our time here and we have some self-discipline throughout the week as we get ready for the opener so what questions do we have here just what where did you feel like this team made the most progress throughout preseason camp what are some of the areas of growth that you observed as ahead of this opener well I think that we um our football's improved you know I think we we got a formula that we kind of subscribe to and I think that we've improved that taking care of the ball um creating takeaways I think our fundamentals have improved I think we have better awareness and knowledge relative to situational football um I do think that uh we've gotten to a point where I think we can play fast you know we can our height length and speed can be a factor in the game you know and be aggressive in how we play and then I think I think we good condition you know I think our team has gotten into football condition um and hopefully that creates opportunities for for us to finish you know whether that's finish plays finish possessions or finish the game so uh ultimately I think all parts of our team we've improved I think experience matters in openers you know I think if you've got a crew that that uh lacks experiences is sitting in there in the locker room and this is their first opportunity and time I think sometimes may not bode well but um we've got a veteran group for the most part um we're playing at home which will um there'll be a comfort level there um but yeah I think you you try to keep the staff you've got more time to prepare so U making sure that it's simple enough um so that your guys can go play with confidence and play Fast uh communicate well and and try to eliminate some of those errors you know I think you can have a little bit too much offense and defense and special teams in the plan if you're not careful well we heard uh of course or we would go back to last year and how close Florida was and he talks about finishing there uh but he talked about you the experience uh with this team and having the experience in the opener he thinks is going to pay off well you know he says the U you know the gator saw will combine 30 s starts by freshman on offense last year with 20 uh and defense with 17 so 37 starts by freshman last year 20 on offense 17 on defense uh that's true and red shirt freshman so that total will was tied for the fifth most in Power five and ranked third in the SEC behind Texas A&M and South Carolina uh of Florida's total defensive snaps across all 12 games 25% were played by freshman the 15 combined starts by defensive backs Jordan Castell and Bry Thorton were the most in college football by true freshman defensive backs FL as true freshman defensive backs accounted for 1,759 total snaps again the most in college football so bil aier relying on well I talked about I had na until I'm kind of blew in the face of just how more experienced this team is because of all the young faces that got all the snaps last year we just heard about it mostly on defense we chronicled that last year I don't think it was the full concern of the defense last year but it did certainly play A Part while they were not consistent on that side of the ball but you know billi getting ready for this first big game and a lot of those new faces last year will get ready for this big game versus Miami as well yeah I mean so what I take from all that is that there's no more excuses that you know you look at it and Florida's freshman aren't freshman anymore they the guys they have out there are the guys they say they want out there the um the guys they brought in for the transfer portal these are guys they've identified think it's like 85% of the guys on the roster are now people that nap you're brought in specifically they've got their quarterback the they ided is the guy they wanted he's in here and you know even if you look at Talent like and we talk about recruiting and things like that but the Gators are 12th overall in the 247 Sports composite ranking when you look at the rosters they're 12th overall in the country which means they're going to play three or four teams that have more Talent than them overall but you play 12 games right so so if you win the games you're supposed to with all this experience no more excuses right and and I think that's the thing that I sort of come into this season hoping is that that's that's terrified that all the culture building all the all the bumps and bruises and and just you know nightmarish defenses that we've had to sit through are now leading us towards a season now where we're going to see the Breakthrough and I hope that's the case I'm cautiously optimistic that maybe that's the case um I kind of wish Napier was a little bit more energetic there on the on the on the podium he's not exactly getting me ready to run through a wall so hopefully he's saving that up for for his players because uh I want them ready to go when they come out of the tunnel I mean you know it's one of those things where you know we've had guys out of position and guys who haven't really been who haven't panned out and you've had guys who felt like they had to cover for other guys that should be over right no more excuses it's time for W's and if the W's don't come then there are consequences for that and and um you know he almost like when when he sort of at the very start of that he almost had a little bit nervous and I was like interesting like I don't know what that means like it wasn't his normal Cadence at the start of that there was a little bit of a sort of like like Gulp and stuff like that and you know I think he knows right he knows that this is the make or break year this is the time you know the the Miami game especially is one where the entire trajectory of the program can change if his guys are ready to go and so that's gonna be the question these are his guys are they ready to go no excuses yep I mean that's kind of where I said if this thing is headed in the right direction we should see the results in the in the wind loss column I don't care how hard to schedule is we'll get into that later on too and kind of in the predictions of the over under and the stats and record and all that kind of stuff too I I agree I mean his roster his players all all that stuff you just said we' repeated for the last you know several months here in previe in this season two years yeah that too but the last several months this this is his team this is year three I there's no taking over for Dan Mullen excuse there's no that's say schedule does it play a factor sure but I don't want to I don't want to you rely on that I don't want that to be a reason Florida doesn't go get you know the wins this year if the thing is headed in the right direction I think you overcome it you've you've built a team in your image to be able to be prepared uh for for you know I won necessarily a schedule like this but a hard schedule and I think we should see some results based on that so well I I know you started your Miami preview uh you had your first uh part one preview up at re reaction um kind of General so I don't want to steal your thunder dare so people will go read it but yeah everybody reg reaction.com will is already started his Miami preview at part one part two I'm sure later on this week well what's your initial takeaway as you look at this Miami team a lot of new faces starting at quarterback of course with Cam Ward Mario CIS a lot of pressure on him these two coaches Napier Crystal Ball come in you know both in their three both in their third season coming up a lot of pressure on both certainly seems like a little more on Napier from a national perspective I think there's a lot of Mario Chris Ball as well but you know they they've attacked the transfer portal they've recruited there's a lot of recruiting battles between these two schools the last few years it's uh man this is a drama field 3:30 kickoff on Saturday so my initial takeaway and thanks Dave so yeah I have the overall sort of statistical breakdown up at the site tomorrow I'm going to have quarterbacks then key matchup and then prediction I've had people tell me it's a lot to digest when I write one of my big long treatises for some of these uh previews so we're breaking it up at least for the Miami game and we'll see whether that that carries on throughout the year but my so I have two main takeaways one is that Miami had a very had very inconsistent quarterback play and was still 25th overall in the country at 6.1 yards per play against uh FBS opponents Florida was 51st so Miami had a better offense and then you look at the defense Miami was 36 in yards per play allowed against FBS opponents gave up 5.1 yards per play Florida gave up 5.1 yards per play on the ground so so I mean the difference between the defenses is just night and day and so last year's profile at least for these two teams is that Florida has a really really really long way to go to catch up it's about two games and some people quibbled that I didn't include strength of schedule and yes Miami played an easier schedule last year but I honestly not sure that Florida's defense would have been any better against an e year schedule they didn't stop anybody and and so to me that's the place where I just go all right where is Florida improved and and the switch from cam or the switch to cam Ward bringing him in he's got some warts too but if Miami gets consistent quarterback play you're looking at probably a top 20 offense against the defense that's still trying to get it sea legs and so now you're sort of relying on the swamp as like the magic factor to make cam Ward turn the ball over or something like that so um you know again I last year's not everything but you know I learned this lesson back in 2017 I looked at Michigan and looked at their previous year and went that's a long way for Florida to have to go to catch up to where Michigan is and it really sort of proved out you the weaknesses that that Florida had really didn't match up very well with the strengths of of Michigan and I think when you start looking at this game that's at least where I start is that Miami's strengths are really going to be something that Florida has to improve has to have improved significantly on last year if they're going to compete here yeah I fight back on that a little bit will because where were those strengths when they only won one more game in the ACC than Florida last year with an easier schedule I mean like you said schedule does come into Factor when you weigh ACC SEC and certainly that that it does play into it and look I would defend your part too where people you know when people will say oh well Florida was in the ACC well I saw Florida lose to Arkansas home so don't give me you know the the schedule is the complete difference here I mean Florida has lost some terrible games in the last couple years Vanderbilt the first year Arkansas last year I'm not ready to say put Florida in any other conf yeah they probably have another win or two uh but I think one more win for Miami in the ACC Florida last year in the ACC with the way they get those games played out some of the losses about equal and then we'll see what year three holds for a ton of transfers for both teams I think both teams will look a whole lot different than they did last year will as you mentioned Florida being at home can certainly be the difference when it's all said and done we've seen that first big home game of the season two years ago against Utah last year against Tennessee be a difference and maybe games Florida shouldn't have won when you go back and look at the at the end of the season and you go back and say okay maybe Florida was fortunate to win those games uh and maybe it's that you know that that swamp magic that plays out again on Saturday but it's still going to come down to going out there and playing a good football game uh yeah certainly um it is hard when you start wanting to compare ACC SEC who'd you lose to who'd you beat uh and you maybe you throw all of that out of the window when these two teams are head-to-head on Saturday because these are new teams yeah I mean so yes absolutely I mean Miami's got 10 guys in the transfer portal who are projected to be starters if you go look at like our lad's depth chart they got 10 guys right and they got three or their four defensive line and they got three of their five defensive backs are guys who are going to be brand new so to sit there and go oh well their defense was was Top 40 last year yeah okay I understand why people would look at that and say how can you look at last year for things like that but I also go they didn't bring in those transfers because they thought they were worse right like it's not like they lost a bunch of guys who were like who were just game changers in fact if you look at the NFL draft they lost four guys to the NFL one in the third round three seventh round draft picks one of their five stars left us an undrafted free agent so they're not replacing guys who had an enormous amount of productivity with these guys that they're bringing in in the portal so um I I suspect that I don't trust Mario cristall I just don't especially after especially after watching that Georgia Tech game last year where he didn't take the knee at the end I I just I and you know he's had Justin Herbert at quarterback and you know everybody's like oh what a revelation when he goes to the NFL but he wasn't able to do a whole lot with him I think cam ward has some real holes in his game I but again it's that it's to me football is about matchups right and I'm going to get to this later in the week in my previews but the matchups are the things that you have to look at when you really start looking at this sort of stuff so you know Florida was really bad against the run last year Miami was pretty good Florida also really bad against the pass Miami not very good but the you know if they can get a little bit of improvement if Miami can you know how much better has Florida really gotten and that's the thing is you know does the addition of Asa Turner the second year for Jordan Castell how big of a difference does that make in game one like I think by the time you get to game seven game eight game nine those guys should make a major difference but continuity matters in certain areas and you know nowhere have we seen that more than on the offensive line where Florida's offensive line was was a Civ at times last year and you know they brought in a lot of guys to the transfer portal two years ago didn't pan out now they brought in a lot of guys to the transfer portal again is that going to is that going to pan out so same for Miami too with all those new faces how how jail for them well that is true that is true and and again I think it comes back down to matchups right and and the one place that I get concerned when I look at Florida versus Miami especially is Miami's offensive line has some real talent and some real big dudes and in fact two of the offensive linemen are guys I wanted to be Gators and Florida's defensive line especially with the injuries that we've seen with lions up there they're going to be shifting around all sorts of stuff I go where are we getting the pressure from all right human M leaves Lions is now out where's the pressure going to come from and I think that's a key thing that Florida's gonna have to figure out a way to get to cam W I think there's very specific ways that you want to get to cam W and I think it's going to require some one-on-one wins up front and and the question I have is does Florida have anybody who can do that because last year the only guy who could win a match up oneon-one up front was Prince Le human M and he's not here anymore so they're going to need somebody to step up and that's a matchup where I think at least going in I go I'm not sure Florida fixed that during the offseason they're going to need somebody one of those either the true freshman in LJ McCrae or you know Kelby Collins or or um you know some of those other guys are gonna have to step in and just we're gonna have to see significant development now look that happens sometimes over the year or over the course of the offseason but that's the thing that I'm sort of aiming towards as a matchup where I go like if this game goes Miami's way it's going to go their way because Florida can't get pressured yeah Boon sap seriously you know those three guys I think you will certainly be circled as the guys that when when when when the clock strike zero on this game those might be the first three players you go to and see what they did in this game to see who comes out on top so there we go will miles will have plenty that you just mentioned at re reaction.com part one's already out going to break it up big game Wills got it recovered there I'll have more Miami specific coverage later this week here on Gator breakdown as well as we preview those games like we always do but it's time to turn to page will and have some fun with these uh these over runds and like we do every year of course and should be a lot of fun conversation here we're going to keep it uh at 12 games um this just the easiest way to do it of course when you want to compare stats um so hopefully flid is making a bowl game this year and before that 13th game or if they make the playoff before the 14th 15th however many games we can uh we'll go back and look at this after the uh the Florida State game and see see see how it all planned out but U of course will when you take a look at it schedule will certainly come into play here but you know there's also only one cupcake so there'll be plenty of snaps uh you know that you'll be you won't be sitting many guys because of you got the one cupcake um hopefully you can get up by a couple scores late in some of these games but we know how tough the schedule is may not uh prove uh that you can you know rest some guys so it's going to be a lot lot of snaps played by a lot of the main cast of this Gator team so of course we're g to start right here at the quarterback spot 25 passing touchdowns will over under for grah Merch 25 passing touchdowns he had 20 and 11 games last season so you get your you know you get a pretty good barometer of what he can do there uh probably wouldn't have had 20 I mean he would he probably doesn't throw for five uh maybe throws for one more against Missouri if he stays in that game know if he'll throw for four against FSU so I don't know if he would have got the 25 last year but I think there is an expected jump for GR M starting the season off faster you know started the season off a little slow last year trying to get his legs under him in this new offense he says he's ready to go in this offense so 25 passing touchdowns over under will I'm going to go over because I am expecting that jump for Grand Merz and more weapons at the receiver position so going to go over with 27 all right so you already mentioned 20 touchdowns 11 games last season but I look at that and say everything went well for him had three interceptions that's lower than his interceptable percentage if you look at the interceptable rate of most quarterbacks in the SEC he was well below that I think he's going to throw a few more picks I think that probably is going to sort of drive down that um that number and I also you know they're talking about going down field more often but I don't know that that's going to necessarily happen I think we're going to see an offense pretty similar to last year's I think maybe a little bit of a jump 22 23 somewhere in that range but I'm not gonna have Merz at 25 or over um I'm gonna take the under on this one I think merch kind probably gets up close to it but doesn't actually get to that number all right receivers come into play here for this next one as well that's one reason I like him going over there but 3,000 yards passing he had 2903 in those 11 games last year so he definitely would have hit it over FSU so he would have got 3,000 last year had he played in 12 has to average about 250 a game to get this so I do think it'll be close uh but well think I got him going over to 3,000 uh those six game his last six games last year he threw for 1,683 that was 280 yards per game in those last six games last year um played some easier defenses of course but also went on you pretty good game against Missouri before he got hurt uh so I got I got I got him getting that three ,000 barely over I got him getting it there yeah so I have the under um he had like like you mentioned 2900 a year ago and 11 games I think lague has to get time against Samford like if if you're gonna if you're gonna have lagway as your as your backup you have to get him in there against Samford so like the stat padding games and UCF I don't even know is really a stat padding game the stat padding game that's one where I think you're going to see lague get the most of you know maybe merch goes out there and throws for you know a buck 60 and three touchdowns but at that point you know if you're up 21 nothing 28 nothing you you go ahead and turn that thing over to to lagway I also think it's possible if things don't go well that lagway plays a ton and so there's I'm not factoring that in but that is a that is certainly a strong I you know so I I think if merch plays all 12 games I think he gets there I'm not sure he's gonna be given the chance I think lague plays a lot against sford I think there's there's you he's going to be he's going to play with abandoned because that's sort of his attitude that's one of the reasons why he got injured last year he held on to the ball a lot last year and took a bunch of sacks and took a beating there were a few games where it was like I'm not sure merch is gonna go back in there in fact I was you know there were probably three or four games there where I thought we were gonna see Max Brown a lot earlier than we did in the overall year so uh so I'm gonna take the under on this one but again I think you and I this is a good number that you said here 3,000 this is one where if merch takes a jump he passes it easily but still I mean if you if he plays in 11 games he's averaging essentially almost 300 yards a game and I don't think he's getting 300 against Georgia so you got to make that up somewhere yeah and uh and I don't see it I think I'm gonna take the under gotta respond to goes uh we we'll have a good one here one more part about that well it does seem easy because if you do look at last year 11 games he had 2900 of course he'll it was hard for me to say three you and four the factors you said um that Stanford game as I said that's the only cupcake I I'm like you I don't expect him to play a whole lot in that game I hope he's not playing a whole lot in that game uh I'm not really factoring in injuries too much you can't forecast that um but if it plays into your equation sure I me go for it I I will say I'm going into this like a typical season like like you would hope it would play out I guess as far as injuries go uh in some of these stats and some of these over and unders so um so I'm going to I'm going to animal gave us a donation here he goes does DJ lagway have a role in this offense for this season that will come into some of these next over unders uh that we will go into here so animal thank you so much for that but lagway we went five touchdowns responsible for so passing and rushing uh we you know I said five or seven you agreed with we'll stick this one at five here man this one was for me um I think he'll get two against Samford because I like you I do think he'll get those I think he'll have probably have a rushing probably have a passing if I just this far out had to say it but five touchdowns responsible for over under I think with the two in that game he'll get a good bit of snaps I think uh I think he'll get more than three the rest of the way so I'll go with seven total I know that I threw that seven number out of there so I'll go over here for DJ lagway and his five touchdowns responsible for rushing passing with this is combined here I think he gets seven hey I'm finally going to be a little bit optimistic here I'm taking the over um to your point this is a Samford bet you need to get your backup quarterback some reps and you're either it's either a core Nation after a Miami win or an angry team after a Miami loss and you know I'm sitting here going could lagu get five in that game like you know you think about what what Florida did the Bulldogs a few years ago with Jones and you know just up and down the field the entire time I'm not sure they need 70 points in this one but uh but I think lagway gets a couple like you said and and I if they really do truly have a lagway package and I think Merz does have the personality to be able to handle that and it feels like lague has the personality to be able to handle that you're not running the lagway package at least to start with at you know Midfield like the place you're running that thing is when you need space down in the red zone and he's got the ability to punch it in there and you're not really worried if he gets dinged a little bit because you've got Merz as as the starter who's able to get you up and down the field so um yeah I'm GNA take the over on this one I think he gets a couple of rushing touchdowns you know we've talked about the TBO leak comparisons it's not a perfect comparison but we've talked about it and I think that is one of the things that uh that lagway brings is that he'll be able to give them a little bit more ability mobility in the red zone and I actually wouldn't be surprised if he catches one too I mean I think there's some opportunities to do some goofy stuff where you have both guys on the field you know usually you split out the slow quarterback out wide when you bring the fast guy in but I wonder whether you bring the fast guy in you know and and run him out into the slot or something like that do something creative so um the Old Lucas the Old Lucas craw to Felipe Frank style plays there hey I'm up in Philly man just run the Philly special I don't know what it takes but uh anyway yeah I'll take the over all right um here we go we'll go to a running game here wait never mind one more for lag w 500 passing yards over under their we all let you go first I'm taking the over um we'll get into records in a little bit but I'm expecting lagu to play a lot towards the end of the year um so you know maybe he only gets four games to preserve the red shirt but um I think he's gonna have major playing time in at least two of those so I think they'll get him up over 500 I don't I think the red shirt's already out I think he definitely gets over 500 I'm I'm going under there honestly I still think I I'm still thinking merch plays a good bit of the snaps I think he's plays all 12 games um not I don't think I don't think Billy a is going to turn the page unless it's just a disaster of a season you know if Florida's still figh for B eligibility going into you know to five wins going against FSU I don't I don't think he turns the page I think he stays with merch to go get Bowl eligible for this team I know that will be a huge question if if he go should go ahead and turn the page if you're fighting for bow eligibility against Florida State but at the same time uh maybe start thinking about the other players on the team as well not want to I give up is probably the wrong word but not necessar necessarily know if you want to turn the page in that situation I'll go under I don't think he quite gets to 500 I don't know if he gets that many opportunities to throw for 500 passing yards so all right we'll go rushing game over under 175 rushing yards a game it was at 200.2 two years ago and you had Anthony Richardson at quarterback with Montreal Johnson at etn taking most of the spots most of the carries at the running back spot 149 and a half last season will with those same two backs so I'm torn on this one as we know nap style in the past on all offense of course is relying on the Run game but with a returning quarterback and the weapons at wide receiver I question it they get 175 a game just because I think they will use the passing game more so I'm going under but bar rushing for 170 yards a game yeah I'm going under I think and actually significantly so I think it's probably in the 150 to 155 range um lagway is the wild card here but if you think about I mean you already mentioned with ar um you know they average 200 with Emory Jones they were also up over 200 the year before that um with tras though in 2020 they had 131 yards per game last year with h with Merz 150 you're only getting 175 if the quarterbacks run it a bunch that's just sort of the reality in college football at this point a mobile quarterback who can get you 40 or 50 yards a game puts you in that position to be able to do that you're not getting 40 or 50 yards a game from Merz in fact you're probably getting negative yardage over the course of the entire year from the quarterback position unless lagway is getting you know six seven eight nine carries a game and if that's happening then that means he's playing a boatload and that's probably not good for the running game in general so I'm gonna take under 175 yards rush and I think they end up somewhere in that 150 to 155 range all right uh any any running back average 15 carries a game this one's interesting because of course the transfer of Trevor ET in Georgia that does open up the door for mantro Johnson to get more carries no running back got 15 carries a game um since here you know Johnson had about nine in 2022 with 115 total carries etn also had about nine on 118 total carries so very even two seasons ago and then last season montro had 12. six etn had 12 so very similar again uh Mount Montreal now the most experienced running back in a deep room uh will that equal him getting more than 15 carries a game as I said last year he was at 12 still splitting reps I think he'll get those three more carries a game just because of the inexperience last year Billy NE is a big believer in him of course whether he plays or not in the Miami game he's back mil a said trying to get him back practicing I think it's about 5050 I probably will lean that he tries to go against Miami if you had to ask me now I say probably plays uh but that's just um you know where we're at here on Monday but I'm going to go I don't want to go push here uh so yes I think he gets at least four more carries a game as this plays out since he's the guy etn is no longer there we'll see what you know I don't want to slam on the other running backs in this I just think last season here him coming back Billy aer's got a lot of trust in montro Johnson I think he gets I think he does get more than 15 carries a game so I've gotten this one wrong every year and I think I've taken the over every year for like the last three years so I'm taking the under there's a few reasons one is you already mentioned Johnson's gimpy coming into the Miami game um you it sounds like he'll play but if he plays you know is he is it something where you get like a carry or two and or do you reserve it for you know key times in the game where you're going to give him the give him the ball key times where you need him to to pass protect you know those sorts of things he's probably got a limited role even if he's in there right if he's a little bit gimpy and then I expect his workload to ramp up as the season goes along but the thing is is I think they're G to slowly work him into it so you know if he plays against Miami and has limited snaps you know does he play against Samford probably not though if he doesn't play then that doesn't impact his his average but I I I think the reality is is that Napier splits carries yeah consistently right and last year I think we all looked at it and said etn special Johnson's good and when you had that combination it was like feed etn like give the ball to number seven like give it to him and they didn't they would they would just split carries evenly and so I think part of that is a strategy to keep the running back healthy over the course of the entire season and in this case I think they're even GNA kind of double down on that specific strategy and if if you remember last year one of the reasons I picked over 15 is because you had cam Carroll get injured right before the season started and so you're like hey you've only got two established guys and that's kind of what we saw as TR Webb didn't get a whole lot of carries last year but even then you didn't have him up over over uh over over 15 carries so I think this year um I don't think they get there either and again I don't think that's a terrible thing I think it's just the reality of Napier's offense the reality of the way they deploy the running backs and then the reality that Montell Johnson's a little bit nicked up heading into this first game and so expecting him to be a 20 carry game guy as opposed to just saying hey let's get him through the first half of the season so he's there for the second half is is I think that would be my strategy if I was the coach I'd be like what can I get out of these guys who are freshman and red shirt freshman so that he can you know so he can be ready to go when we're facing the georgas and the LSUS and the old misses of the world yeah I guess I'm kind of going back on what I was saying earlier because I do expect the offense probably to open up a bit more with the secondy year returning quarterback and grah merch the weapons at wide receiver so maybe that comes into play as well well because it did it times last year too you know you started seeing as the season progress relying on gr Merz this passing game a bit more so that could come into play again as well um as you see you know that deep set of receivers and grah Merz there behind Center so any this is one we we introduced last year any wide receiver and we'll go a number of catches here any wide receiver 65 catches over under 65 so last season Ricky piol had right at 65 Trey Wilson had 61 so it certainly seems like it's easier say yeah Tre Wilson will certainly get more four more catches because he had 61 last year yeah he'll get 65 you are deeper at wide receiver this year than last year I believe but I still think Trey Wilson does get to 65 well let's not forget how much those pop passes count here in this offense I don't think that play is going anywhere uh and you know Trey Wilson will certainly get his share of those so that will go into the 65 but yeah he got 61 last year I question maybe even raising this one a bit but as I said I do think fart is deeper at receiver I do think he could have more help than you know just him and Ricky Piera last year but I do I will say Wilson gets to 65 yeah I'll take the over on this one too and actually that's a commentary on I think Elijah Badger's impact but the impact in that he allows Trey Wilson to stay in the slot and so Florida did a lot of stuff last year where Wilson would line up as a running back and they had Montell Johnson as a lead blocker they did the pop passes like you mentioned they did a lot of flare screens where he'd go on the flat and then they ran a bunch of stuff off of those flare screens to get him open down field I expect that to be pretty much the same package with some added wrinkles that they've got for Trey Wilson and Wilson only played in 10 games last year so if you get him the full 12 if you can keep him healthy I think you know he's going to get 10 10 tou a game as long as he stays healthy and maybe you he ends up under 65 if some of those touches are pitches instead of pot passes but the reality is I expect him to touch the ball at least 10 times a game which means you're looking at 120 touches and you consider that the types of throws Wilson's going to catch being in the slot are the five and six-yard pass varieties at 70% completion Clips so if you target him 10 times a game and you complete it at 70% you're getting over that 60 pretty 65 pretty easily so I'm gonna take the over for Trey Wilson but I again I think that's Elijah Badger I think he maybe might be the biggest addition in the transfer portal that Florida has this year not necessarily because of what he does on the field though I'm sure he'll do a lot but because of what it means for the team and where they put Trey Wilson well to fight back on myself a little bit with this I hope maybe the number isn't as high as we think but the yards per catch is is a little higher you know maybe it is more down the field maybe the average is down there maybe it's more explosive plays for Trey Wilson where it's not these eight nine 10 11 play drives it's six seven play drives because you wouldn't have Trey Wilson with a 50 yard catch and run or a 50- yard catch down the field and that will hopefully I mean that's not going to be drive in and drive out of course but it may play into it where at 62 but 62 catches but the yard for catch is a lot higher oh Dave my sweet friend you uh you have an optimism that they're going to do something different with Wilson out of the slot I I admire the optim I think they move him around honestly I don't think he's stayed in theot so so here here's here's what I think is we'll know in the Miami game pretty early on because they if they move him around the way they moved him around last year they will get him isolated on a linebacker at some point in the first quarter and the question is going to be do they run a little out like you know one of those canaras Tony you know sort of sort of in and outs where you try to leave the linebacker you know give yourself a little bit of a running start it turns into a 12 to maybe 18 yard gain or do they say all right you got to stop him and actually send him downfield against the linebacker so you know I've been I've been clamoring for this for years since Florida's had a bunch of running backs and the wide receivers have been relatively weak it's been like just get him on the linebacker and send him down the middle of the field Ohio State's actually really good at this um and so so hopefully that's what we'll see but uh oh poor sweet Dave I'm I'm not sure that's what we're going to see buddy um well I did have the number I'm saying if if it's not quite as high I'm hoping that would be the reason why um offense 30 points per game will that was you know that was the number we went last year uh so over under 30 points per game it was 29 and a half for the Gator two seasons ago 28.4 last season so you 28 29 points per game I went over last year got this one wrong um so right at 30 you we've mentioned the schedule you play some tough teams uh but as I said I do expect the offense to be better so I'm going to go over here one more time looking probably 31 31 points a game will somewhere around there I don't I think it's got to take a jump I'm going under man I I think I think they'll be close I don't think they're going to get there I I think the the offense is what the offense is and I'm not expecting some giant leap from Graham Merz I'm expecting him to be very you've you've been on that yep I don't see it so you know look if he does a great if he has a great jump I will I will absolutely eat crow and come on here and and sing his Praises but I I just you know the reality is is that they're facing some really good defenses this year um you know obviously you got the sford game but but you don't have the second one right last year we had the we had the what was it the Charlotte game where they scored like 22 points or something absolutely second one didn't matter last year either that just obliterated Us in this one so um they look great towards the end of the year last year obviously but uh but I don't know man I think that SEC East schedule last year hid some warts that the true SEC schedule this year is going to bring us back to Earth and again I don't know if that's necessarily A a downgrade of Florida I think it's a the offense will probably be slightly better but I don't know that it's going to I don't know it's going to matter given the opponents that they're playing all right we'll move to the other side of the ball here Will and I'll let you go first we set the defense at 25 points per game uh it was at 27 about 27 and a half last season Gator gave up about 29 Points in 13 games in 2022 uh so you know if at 27 and a half last season do we think this better defense will be better this season over under will 25 points per game I'm taking the under um I think the defense could be way better this year I I think there are a couple reasons for that um the first is that that is that between Austin Armstrong or between Patrick Tony to Austin Armstrong the success rate of the defense went way down and Florida being as bad as they were last year is a major outlier for other teams that have historically had success rates in the range where Florida's had so what that says is to me is that the coach got him in the right position and they didn't make the play and so now you've brought in Ron Roberts he's going to play much more Zone to restrict big plays at least you would expect that given what he did at Baylor and um you know if he's bringing in zone to restrict the big plays and they're in the right position I think the defense is going to get way way better and here's the reality is 25 points per game would have ranked 57th last year which means you're really not asking the defense to do anything other than not be terrible like to hit the under there they don't have to be Georgia they don't have to be Alabama they got to kind of be like you know Kansas State and it's like can fla can Florida's defense be as good as Kansas State yes they should be that good like they should be able to to end up in that 57th 57th 50th 40th somewhere in that range I don't think they're up in like the I don't think it's top 10 I don't think it's probably a top 20 defense but I think somewhere in that 30 to 50 range is where they end up which means they're giving up 22 to 24 points a game and if they're scoring almost 30 that's a team that's going to that's going to win a few games so yeah I'm going with I'm going with that too I think they shave about a field goal off from last season that gets them around 24 uh so certainly when you look at the offenses though will the tough offenses Tennessee Georgia Texas Old Miss possibly Miami lsu2 um I'm drinking a cool Aid like you on this defense I do think they will be much better Ron Roberts coming in Austin Armstrong second year experience there experience all all over the secondary which I'm pretty high on especially at that safety spot I really think that go will go a long way more sacks more turnovers uh for for this defense I really do think uh They Come Together finally and though we've been saying it year after year as you said yeah I don't expect some great great defense but I will sit here and say I do think we say that is a defense that we see major strides in a defense that um will be relied on I think at times as well things we wouldn't have said the last couple of years uh but I do think will going back to your point the first step last year they were better play byplay but the explosives is what really killed them more consistency in that regard and I do think a lot of safety play that safety play is really really going to help limit those explosives and limit the points per games at the same time well here's your favorite one the sacks over under 25 sacks this has been set at 30 sacks for as long as we can remember because it used be pretty easily hit by Florida think we even raised it above 30 when to gram here was here because Florida got the quarterback a whole lot but uh still had some issues on that side of the ball but still it was hit easily by those defenses the Gaters got 22 sacks last season you know I thought Armstrong had the reputation for being that more aggressive play caller Florida would you know get to a higher number just wasn't there Florida only had 23 two seasons ago in 202 so going 25 is a jump well they haven't hit 25 the last couple of years but we do expect an improved defense um so I'm going over I'm going go I'm going to go in 27 sacks I do expect an improvement there uh overall with with this defense the improvements we thought we would see from Armstrong in his approach last year I think bare fruit this year um so certainly not an excellent number but it will be a better number than it was last year yeah so I'm I'm with you in terms of thinking that the secondary is going to be much much improved I think the linebacker core is going to be a lot better too it is interesting that jayon hill and Scooby Williams are not on the two deep at Texas A&M that was kind of interesting to see and and I think does sort of reflect what Florida had out on the field last year and some capacity not just those guys but obviously that that that is an interesting comparison um the question I have is where the sacks gonna come from like my biggest worry against Miami I already sort of said is how Florida's going to be able to get pressure given a lack of Playmakers previously it and not really having a big- Time addition through the portal right so is it LJ McCrae like is that guy going to step up and have like a Harold Perkins type impact where he's bringing 89 10 sacks I mean if you you're still in my thunder for later on so if you have if you have if you add up Florida's tackles for loss last year I don't think they get to 25 it's it's probably pretty close and I'm I'm almost certain you don't if you get rid of human M and so there's not an established pass rusher there who can win a one-on-one battle so I'm going to go under I think they'll be close but I think they're going to go under in terms of the overall sacks and I think that's probably okay too because I think Ron Roberts again his influence is going to be more zone less blitzing less leaving your guys out on an island more play to the strengths of your defensive backs keep stuff in front of you and be more Bend but not break and and that's not necessarily going to facilitate getting after the quarterback at all times it's going to be a little bit frustrating I think for Gator fans in some capacity but the good news is is that it should be more effective and so it should end up being it can't be more frustrating than it has been three of the last four years and so um you know this is more of like one of those bills defenses from the 1990s where you're just sort of like all right like Bend but don't break and then the offense on the other side has to come through um I think I'm going to take under on this one I think they're up 22 23 24 somewhere in that range okay I couldn't find it fast enough for tackles for law but uh we'll uh I'm G to going to take you you to fact check me after this no I'll forget about it after this um this was going to be popular I saw it in the chat too turnovers uh was oh God putrid last year for this Gator defense uh with that surpris but I do think we if we get expect an improvement on that side of the ball we can't just go off of last year's number so I'm going to set the over under at 15 15 turnovers seven last season for this Gator defense he had three interceptions and four fumble recoveries so about halfway there from what we're putting the number at this year um so I went higher for the over under because you know for one thing will it is rare to be that low in this category so I do think we have to raise it just based on that U but 22 turnovers two seasons ago you know in this still same defense that was under Patrick Tony then Austin Armstrong last year uh so 15 really isn't out of the question for a bounceback I guess I'll go I'll keep going my optimistic ways here will I'll go 18 18 turnovers for this Gator defense I'm gonna go 20 man we go I'm gonna take the over on this one I think this is where the defense is gonna get better I think the defensive line and against the running game and pressure is a place where they're probably going to struggle a little bit I think the secondary is a place where they are going to shine and the way they're going to shine I think is that they're going to rely on Zone more often you're GNA have safeties who are sort of lurking behind the play Turner showed in the spring game and if you look at the tape he's got real ball Hawking instincts I think Castell has shown a little bit of that as well and I would expect him to learn from Turner you've got DJ Douglas there even if there's an injury to either Castell or Turner to jump in there at the safety position um Bryce Thornton got quite a few snaps last year and I suspect is going to be at least a serviceable backup so you've got a lot of depth at that spot too and at some point the quarterback just gets impatient and when the and if you make a guy Dink and dunk his whole way down the field he will get impatient and he'll throw the ball into double coverage and you've got an opportunity and so I think Florida's going to get a lot of chances for interceptions now obviously they got to bring those down but that is a place where I think Florida can really turn a lot of games I think their secondary is couldna be really good and I think the fact that they're going to allow their cornerbacks to not always be on an island I think that's going to make a major difference both for the safeties but also for the corners who are going to be underneath a few times you know the quarterback has to go over the corner under the safety a lot of times they miss that throw and if it's too far the safety gets it if it's too short the corner gets it but when's the last time you saw Florida get an interception like that right where the quarterback's trying to fit one into a Zone spot and he just misses the throw and it goes right to a guy it's been a really long time since we've seen that in Florida and part of that is you know it's been really frustrating to see Florida's Corners not high point the ball and the wide receivers beat him out for it a lot of times and that's just been like a constant thing the last three or four years but part of that is is the guy's in one-on-one coverage if he's if he's out there having to go and fight for the ball how about you help him out how about you have a safety come over and make sure that you bracket that guy and I think Florida has the guys to be able to do that this year so I've got way that fourth and 18 versus Missouri just crept In My Head Right There Will well way to take the one place where I'm being optimistic and just completely Debbie down it there Dave that's great I mean I got people in the chat telling me I'm an under machine and all sorts of stuff I finally take it over it's a positive over for the Gators and um new t-shirt for will under machine there you go there we go um a little bit different for this one third down conversions and this is going to be based off the rank here so of course lower actually means higher you know how college football rankings work uh so last year we 35th last season with 35.6% there for third down conversions a huge Improvement I mean we do look for areas of improvement for a defense and this was one of them uh of course third down defense much much better um will they rank higher or lower higher being the lowest number like rankings work like I said the season before in 2022 this is how big of a jump it was Will third down they were 129th in 2022 35th last season so almost a 100 ranking jump for third down conversion last year uh so they were giv up near 50% two seasons ago so a major Improvement by Austin Armstrong in that defense last year uh I think they will rise even more uh so I'll go with a ranking higher even in this category take it near 33% which would rank about 22nd the country will uh you know so about 22nd 23rd in the country would be 33% that's what it was last year so yeah I think they keep improving with that third down defense all right so that means you're technically taking the under right because it's under 35 that's why I said if you look at rankings it's higher just go higher or lower I guess yeah that's why I said this one's a little bit different higher in the rankings higher or lower so there's a couple things here one is this is a highly variable stat from year to year as you already highlighted going from 129th to 35th um the other thing is is that Florida went from 129th to 35th and the defense didn't get any better so so I'm not sure that it's critical 43rd is actually pretty good I I think what's going to end up happening is is that we're going to see a slight decrease from last year's ranking while improving at avoiding big plays and I've already said I expect the defense to be much more bent but don't break but that means that some third and threes are going to be some easy throws against the zone right and the good news is I don't think that's going to turn into a 45 yard touchdown like it did last year and and so you know I think in many ways they might have been really good at third down conversions because they didn't face a whole lot of third Downs last year and you know I so I I expect this to creep up a little bit um and that's okay right I think at the end of the day you're going they are going to be relying on these safeties to come up and make tackles and sometimes you'll make the tackle and you'll stop them a yard short sometimes you'll make the tackle and they'll be a yard past the sticks but you can live with that because that makes the team go down the field 10 yards at a time and most college teams are going to make a make a mistake over time so I'll go higher yeah your your top um third down conversion defenses last year Georgia Texas Ohio State Florida State Michigan Utah uh there so for the top defenses maybe correlates but yeah we know this is not a top defense but we're hoping is making their way not terrible would be an upgrade like not terrible we'll take it that's just been since 2020 um yeah hoping to dig out of that uh all right so let's go that was it for our over unders uh so we'll take a look back after the Florida State game and see where with where we end up with those uh now we'll go go player specific here and we are going to go superlatives for this season will I will start with you Ultimate Game Changer we know Trey Wilson's obvious here so you can go that route I did throw in some other ones just for some fun but of course I don't want to overlook Trey Wilson he's the obvious one so we can have a little bit of fun with this but we'll take it away all right so I cheated a little bit um but I'm taking Dre tank Hawkins okay as my game changer because game changer can mean special teams as well and I think Florida was really forced to have etn return kicks the past few years and while etn is an explosive player like sort of you know lowercase explosive Hawkins is an explosive player like capital letters explosive and so I think he's gonna break a couple maybe not for touchdowns but he's gonna break some big returns give Florida good field position before opponents stop kicking his way which will eliminate the biggest weakness that Florida had on special teams last year which was starting field position it was the worst in the SEC their starting field position was the worst in the it was it was by like four yards it was just hideous and um so you know I yelled at Florida last year because they kept taking the ball out of the end zone and running it back uh if Hawkins is back there doing that then I will I will gladly allow him to try to do it because this is a guy who has like elite elite elite speed and give him the ball let him go in the open field I look forward to it hopefully Hawkins proves me right as the Ultimate Game Changer there is no correlation with whatsoever here but if the college football video game is any indication yes he will be a weapon at the at the kickoff return and return so um like I said Trey Wilson obvious here will I'm going to a place where you went a little earlier I'm going to go aija Badger I think bringing him in I think you know his catch and run ability his physicality that he showed at the wide receiver position at Arizona State um I think we we'll show its itself here at Florida too now it may not be game one of course he's transfering was not here in the spring maybe take some time to get to the Playbook but I do think there'll be some design plays to get the ball in his hands but then as a season goes on he'll be a consistent player he'll be a consistent playmaker in this wide receiver core in this offense I think he's a big play waiting to happen there with Trey Wilson uh so I'm going you know alongside Trey Wilson I'm gonna stay at wide receiver and go Elijah Badger nice I hope so yeah yeah it was it was tough you I wanted to go with maybe one of the young running backs but you know and uh will do you have one for defense I did pick a defense one yeah so I've got Deon Moore um I I highlighted in in the preseason magazine that that's still on sale actually if you go over to read reaction that Moore was the best cornerback on the team and he actually raided pretty well with some of those Alabama Corners last year um when he was on the field he just hasn't been able to stay on the field so the addition of my cousin Tyler miles there is the strength and conditioning coach um you know I really hope helps him stay healthy for 12 games because I expect him to go high in the NFL draft if he stays healthy I think he's that good of a cornerback and we've talked a lot all offseason about safeties but in my mind the reality is is that is that Jason Marshall has been a serviceable but not star corner and if if he can maintain that and more can be a star and you bring those safeties in as well now you've got a secondary that's bordering on Elite and I watched him shut down Florida State last year live and it was impressive like watching Deon Moore on the field one-on-one against Florida State's quarterback or against Florida State's wide receivers and granted Tate romaker was a quarterback he wasn't able to get him the ball all the time but you can see it when you're watching live and you're there and you're and you're able to watch individual matchups you can see Corners who just lock people down and Moore was locking down the Florida State wide receivers last year in the swamp and so I I expect him to be a high NFL draft pick and so he's the guy that I think changes the complexion of that defense if he can actually go out there and prove out that potential over a full 12 games well they feel that way in Gainesville too in the building if he can stay healthy he might be the best corner Florida has and that's not a shot at Jason Marshall anything like that but the potential if he can stay healthy the old adage the best ability is availability certainly lives up right there uh I went Jordan Castell will for for defense uh I think second year pays off for him all those snaps pay off been a playmaker in Fall Camp I think it translates I almost went Ace to Turner yall know you mentioned him as well earlier and his ability and um but I think the playmaker for defense comes from that safety group I love your Deon morick too by the way I just went safety first uh but I think it's going to be up you know with those guys I do love that we went in the secondary for Playmakers because I do think a lot of those turnovers especially interceptions may come from those guys but a a turnover talked about you know his love and the physicality of playing trying to force fumbles something we would love to see for this Florida defense as well but I'm going to go Jordan Castell um and just his athletic ability to roam around a little bit more on that back end that defense kind of you know kind of paying off and just being in the right spots at the right time going to make him my playmaker on defense so uh well I'll let you go first again I went first on most of the over runers breakout players would go both sides of the ball here who are your Breakout players so on offense I've got AR Bingham I think he was inconsistent but showed flashes of dominance last year the fourth down conversion against South Carolina that was a big time conversion um the play against Arkansas that set up the misfield goal that should have been a game winner also a big play so he needs to string those games together but if he has the ability to string games like that together all of a sudden you're looking at a guy with 35 40 45 catches and considering that he plays a position that's usually a huge safety net for a quarterback who likes to check down and nobody checked down more in the SEC last year than gram Merz I look at it and say I think bingham's going to get quite a few catches I think he ends up somewhere between 30 to 40 catches and I think you're probably looking at a guy who catches four or five balls a game for the team over the course of the year um obviously that' put him around 60 I don't think that's where he'll end up but um you know I think he'll be more more consistent over the course of the Year catches somewhere between 35 40 balls and we're looking at it going all right real production from the tight end spot in a billion apier offense that's that's awesome to see and uh okay well and then I was going to say more is the guy obviously breakout player that I have since I have him as the game changer but then I go to TJ cersi um I keep going back to who's gonna get pressure and sacks for the Gators he had three and a half tackles for loss last year as essentially a backup but he was good enough to make the all SEC freshman team those guys often take big steps forward in year two and so to me breakout player I'm not I don't know enough about LJ McCrae I don't have enough confidence that they're going to throw him out there and give him a ton of run especially early on but I think a guy like cersi is gonna get every opportunity to rush the passer out of their out of their fourman rushes and he's the guy who's gonna have to start winning some individual matchups and I think he's gonna win some of those and and and if he does he can put up you know seven eight nine sacks all right breakout players for me I'll go offense and I know everybody want everybody wants to talk about the new faces at running back will I'm going to I'm going to go out a little bit I'm going to go tray on web uh there at running back I think he'll get plenty of chances Billy Napier's quote of he's the best pass protector we have by far it was pretty much what he said last week in his press conference about Tryon web and and the guys that they're you know minus montre Johnson of course um that trayon web I think is going to get on the field I know going into the spring practice the staff really loved where he was at uh coming out of there as well um he's been getting a ton of the the the one reps through fall Camp too even with the love coming of jacobe Jackson ball and Daniels I love those guys too but I'm going to go Tryon web in his second season um Trevor et's gone somebody's got to step up in that group and I do think you know Billy Napier now with that I do think if he is getting those carries will I think how we saw Trevor etn take over Lorenzo lingard you know Billy neap is not gonna I don't think he'll be afraid to throw if if one of those freshman one of those new faces are the guy proved themselves to be you know a better player to train on web I don't think Billy is going to hesitate to turn the page to one of those freshman but I do expect web to certainly know not certainly but this my pick to be that breakout player and you know I'm G to stay 904 I'm I'm gonna go love here I'm going to go breakout player for defense you know I'm going pup Howard at linebacker it's fla needs it f needs the help there they're bringing him in to be that guy besides Shar James I think dere Wingo is going to have his leadership role he's going to play some snaps earlier in the season but I think as the season progresses pup how's going to be that linebacker right there besides Shamar James making a ton of plays he's been a monster spring camp fall Camp hopefully that translates to the season uh but I'm gonna certainly live in my 904 dream world here trayon web on offense breakout and pup Howard on defense being that breakout player for that side of the ball all I know is Bud Davis has this thing where Billy Napier runs the ball or passes the ball based on formation so we should know whether web's going to get the ball or whether he's in pass protection based on the formation oh my God I can't believe that so um hopefully they break that tendency this year we'll see it'd be good if everybody knows that web is the is the blocker then you know you give him the ball and break some Tendencies because we need to do that this year all right so all right we'll go first here best new face it could be transfer or freshman this was the new one that we're throwing in here but uh might can bleed over into some of the uh other talk that we've had because we've I just had put Howard to transfer so of course that would maybe lend itself to's going to be about best new face on defense but where are you going for best new face transfer or freshman uh I got Ace of Turner so I think Florida's safeties have been just capital A awful the past three seasons um Castell was a bright spot last year but still he was a bright spot for a true freshman he was not just like an overall bright spot um Turner brings some stability even if he's not a star to a position that's been so far below average that average play will feel like a brush breath of fresh air um but I also think he has the upside to be better than that which means we might be talking about an all-conference player by the time we get to the end of the year and if you get allconference play from him if you get a full season from Moore and if you get a jump from Castell all of a sudden we're talking about you know will muschamp type defensive back play obviously there's a lot of stuff in the front end that needs to be fixed and hey if pup Howard turns out to be a star maybe we're uh you know maybe we really are talking about a huge jump on defense but uh but to me Turner is the key to everything if they can get even it like the stability that a guy like that is going to bring to a defense that felt like it was always on skates last year it just felt like you know they're almost there they're almost there they're almost there oh giant 80 yard play they're almost there they're almost oh they got a third down fourth down even oh they gained 18 yards like those sorts of things just seem to happen all the time last year and a stabilizing influence on the back end will be huge so I'm going to say ASA Turner is the biggest new face Edition that Florida has this year all right I wanted to go freshman running backs um I think that was probably the easy place to go because of everything we've been hearing um and defense maybe LJ McCrae um I went freshman route here because I went transfer with pup Howard so of course he was going to be the best new face for me but just to change it up a bit uh but plenty of options um I think here but I'm going to go LJ McCrae will I won't say a Harold Perkins type freshman impact I think that's asking way too much asking a lot he's got that profile now I wouldn't I won't say I'd be shocked I'd be miles Le surprised if if he does that uh but you behind that but I do think we will feel his impact especially as the season goes on with these young players in the trenches and going to your point well Florida is still looking for a pass rusher if that pass rush doesn't come along early in the season do they get him on the field a bit more to use that athleticism to try and generate some kind of pass rush uh but even even if not that even if they don't turn the page to to to to to him to LJ McCrae I do think he's he will make his presence felt at some point as a true freshman as a new face uh there so you you would transfer route I'm going I wanted to go freshman route yeah well I mean McCrae is the obvious one on the Freshman side of the ball right where you go oh he's the one who Florida has a hole he's the guy who you go five stars play early and so hey he should to get a lot of run um but again I it's hard for me to sit there and I cannot say that I believe that LJ McCrae will be more important this year than ASA Turner I I just think Turner is such a big deal in terms of where Florida has been deficient I mean you think about you know Rashad Torrance and travez Johnson and Trey Dean and you know Miguel Mitchell and those guys that we've had playing playing safety and now you look at Turner's profile coming in and you just go wow like that is an upgrade and so to me that that's why he that's why I went transfer on that one Al righty Al righty so well I know you've already released yours in your re reaction preseason magazine uh your record prediction uh does it I guess I could ask does it change what happened to Florida State over the weekend if that plays into a little bit I can't remember if you had Florida beating Florida State or not but um well record prediction for you my friend for the 2024 Florida Gator yeah so the Florida State game is interesting in that I think what I really had was I had losses against Texas I had losses against Georgia and damn near every other game is a tossup and from what I really mean by that is that I can definitely chart a case for Florida to beat Miami I think they beat Samford obviously I think they probably beat A&M but I can make a case that A&M might be able to win that game I think they beat Mississippi State UCF man man KJ Jefferson was a house of hores Florida last year so I mean that makes me nervous even though that's one they should win you got Tennessee okay like Hy's done a pretty good job there but they got a brand new quarterback Kentucky Vandergriff is gonna have to be good and they've had a lot of transfer quarterbacks with a lot of hype who haven't really delivered LS usually losing Jaden Daniels Old Miss is really interesting because 10 wins isn't going to be good enough for them anymore and so I do wonder why that turns into a powder keg and then at Florida State obviously Chang a little bit with that Georgia Tech uh loss but here's what I think I think LSU and FSU take a step back but are still probably better than Florida um I think UCF UK and Tennessee are better than the experts think and one of those is going to probably jump up and bite Florida I think Texas and Georgia are in a class well above Florida and then ol Miss and A&M are probably toss-ups I still have Florida going six and six I think based on the score differential we'll probably be looking at him as a seven and five team but I don't have a lot of confidence in the Special Teams Matt and the ability to deliver in close games thus far and so uh I'm going to go six and six but I think they're probably like two and four in one score games and we're GNA feel like this one was a lot like this season gave us a lot of progress but we're also gonna be lamenting a couple that got away and I think that's I don't like that because I'd like to have a definitive answer at the end of the end of the year like nine and three hey yeah we're heading in the right direction three and n okay we need to make a change six and six means we're going to spend all offseason arguing about it no matter what the decision is but uh that that's where I got Florida it's where I had him in the preseason magazine and I don't think the loss from Florida State changes that because I think um I don't think I expected Florida State to go 13 and0 this year I expect them to be a good but not great team and I think that's probably a little bit better than Florida but I think there's light there to get to seven or eight wins here but uh I'm only willing to go six yeah I wrestle between seven and5 8 and four Florida State makes me want to go now 8 and four with that I I do have my losses to Tennessee Georgia Texas and Old Miss if I want it's it's hard to pick exact losses uh with the way the schedule works out um that's but hard for me to see just because of the road issues going to Knoxville and winning but I also think I'm pretty pretty high on Tennessee uh that this year I'm what Nico can do for that offense um Georgia Texas I think I'll go ahead and write those in as losses Old Miss as well un like you FSU LSU take a step back from everything they lost last year we'll see how much that affects LSU if as it affects as it did Florida State um I've been seven and5 for the longest time I still wrestle 7 and5 U lean there so it's tough for me I I I am really torn will I mean if I had to if I go optimistic way give me eight and four and that fifth loss that I was giving to Florida State I'll take it back now and go eight and four that's the beauty of them playing week zero I can I can get that one back now because I do not like the way they looked but that's certainly going to be a tough game at the end of the season they'll be a different team than what they were in Dublin Ireland against Georgia Tech but I'm probably feeling a little bit better going into this season certainly than I did coming off of last year uh where I lost a insane amount of Hope about where this thing was heading uh but I do like the talent on this team I I I really do will what does hold me back is the coaching the close game decisions that we have seen the last couple of years that just really do this team in I think the talent has improved I'm not sure the coaching has improved we know there's changes there have been staff changes um responsibility for Russ Callaway those are my my my biggest questions for this whole program right now are what's going to happen on game day on the sideline not on the field yeah it it's funny Dave because I was incredibly optimistic about this team last year I picked them to beat Utah I thought they'd go on the road and they would hand Utah a loss and we would come back and be like look at how this stuff has grown and they hurt me they just hurt me that's the reality is I'm still looking those wounds from coming out of that game just going what in the hell was that and that's all I asked all last year it felt like was I just look at it and go H again so it was the Arkansas game for me well I mean so I'm not gonna say that the Arkansas one wasn't a killer and I'm not going to say that there weren't curse words screamed in the rental car line as I was watching the Missouri game on my phone um because somehow I wound up traveling during that game but what I will say is that everything flowed Downstream from that Utah game and I'm still so gunshy31 wounds and honestly it's gonna take some wins to close those wounds right five straight losses to lose the year to to finish the year we of games since mid October last year well and we started off getting our ass handed to us against Utah too so you know you factor in that the entire year was essentially miserable because the first game was just a miserable slog and then the whole last two months was a miserable slog and the whole off season with the recruiting and all that stuff has been kind of a miserable SLO we need some free wins Mr Napier like Miami like not a field goal three touchdowns like you know my the fa my favorite part is watch they'll beat Miami by 20 and they'll they'll get shut don't go there and they'll they'll get penalized for 10 men on the field during an extra point or something and I won't know what to do I I'll be like no it's like like what is going on here yeah um it's like you know if I if I have the scales here you like I said like seven and5 probably weighs more than eight and four but you know I I do go back and forth and you guys know if you've listen to G breakdown anytime I I'm torn go back and forth I will put the orange and blue glasses on and and go my eight and four rout but it really does that Florida State game this past weekend am I am I hanging too much on that probably it is one game but man I was not all that impressed with what I saw there um now Florida still got a game Saturday and Florida could come out against Miami and look just as bad as Florida state did and I'll come here next week and say all right maybe I don't feel so good about that game anymore uh but that's the beauty of FSU losing week zero and I can I can I can put it in my equation for right now but certainly um yeah well I'm just uh 75 eight and four I'll go eight and four because of the orange and blue glasses there yeah well here's the deal every year I come on here and I go we only get 13 of these so enjoy it and last year they stole one from me so they have to make the playoff because I need 14 that that's the reality is they stole one from me last year so now look we we only get a few right I mean you said it it's 14 weeks this season and I'm gonna enjoy each and every one of them and I'm gonna be rooting like crazy when Florida's out there and and all that sort of stuff right and and you know I'm coming down with Max again for a game and and and it's going to be a blast and I hope everybody has that fun there's still going to be time that we're going to be frustrated I guarantee you I mean even an eight and Four Season there's gonna be plenty of stuff to [ __ ] about right because that means there's four losses um obviously if it's four and eight there's more to complain about but the reality is is that this is this is turned into a familial thing for me even more than it was when I was in college and that's always that that's such a cool thing so um you know one of the reasons why it hurts so much when they go out and lay an egg against Utah is because of the community that you've built and I've built and that we've built and uh so hopefully everybody else is is I'm tired of talking about losses yeah no kidding wi some freaking games I'm tired of talking about losses um you know it seems like you and I joked is like since we started Gator breakdown and reading reaction we haven't had a whole lot to you know sit and celebrate and B is gonna fire my ass if we don't win pretty soon but yeah well that you said it great and we were having this discussion on the gator breakdown plus Discord this morning it's um you know it it's still fun don't get me wrong I still get pissed when Florida loses but this time of year is fun I love college football you know Florida plays I'll listen to games on the way home uh and talk to friends and family about college football there's still no better time of the year uh and enjoy this sport we love it's just a whole lot more fun when Florida win some damn games so it's time as you said we got a it's your three your image Billy aier this is your team let's go win some let's go have some fun for the first season in quite some time yeah I mean look here here's what here's what I was I was I was driven to last year is I had to root for Alabama Alabama to stop Georgia from a three repeat like that was what I was that that's what I was driven to it's like a cocaine addict you it's like driven to do something it's like we can't have kirbywood three in a row and I'm sitting here going oh thank God Saban was able to pull that one out and uh I I don't want to have to do that again so let's let's win some games and make sure that in October November Florida's still playing for something and it'll be a successful season yep all will uh schedule reading reaction I know you got your Miami preview is it throughout the week um I know you mentioned what you got coming up Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday so today the overall preview is up um tomorrow is gonna so Tuesday will be quarterbacks so gon to be looking at cam W versus Graham Merz then Wednesday is going to be key matchup and then Thursday I'll have my prediction up there for the Miami game um you know and pick against the spread there so we can actually uh track that over the course of the year so Nick and I are doing something on standup and holler where we're picking five different games all year long so you can go make fun of those picks too um and uh you know look I I've actually been pretty good the last few years in terms of the picks I've been above 500 so if you want to gamble with me um you'll make a few bucks over the course of the Year hopefully yeah I see Ryan Patrol I guess he says uh he's going to go the Gophers Minnesota Gophers of course Golden Gophers in North Carolina on Thursday so one of my best friends lives up in Minnesota uh he he's going to that game as well uh so's he's a big Georgia fan he grew up we grew up in Georgia together but he moved up to Minnesota he's going to that game as well so and I thought it was bad when I moved my wife from from St Petersburg to Chicago makes L Philly it makes a lot he's Sue Indian so it's yeah it goes up to he's lot um you know up there and really expanded of course not many Sue Indians in Southeast Georgia so goes up there my wife is not Sue Indian she just spins all winter indoors Man game week will oh dude it's so much fun it's so much fun and my my son now is getting old enough where he's got all sorts of crap on the weekends so I went up to the coaches today and I'm like practice has to be over by 3:00 they're like what do you mean I'm like practice has to be over by 3:00 like or my kids just going to sit out at the field like like somebody's g a ride home but practice pass to me over at 3 o' Dad Dad hey I'm not I'm not below those sorts of things he he knows what's important he understands like he'll he'll understand when he's older good stuff good stuff yeah all right right here on Gat breakdown of course later this week in Miami preview as well and U yeah we'll get that depth chart Wednesday evening so U you know I expect too many big surprises there's not many big surprises on this roster uh so we'll see no excuses Dave time win some games it is no no more excuses for sure all right guys that is Will Miles reading reaction.com on social media at willes I am the host of Gator breakdown David Waters smash that like button one more time before we sign off here on this episode of Gator breakdown