Florida Gators' Graham Mertz is a Better Quarterback than Miami Hurricanes' Cam Ward

Intro the other day I said that Graham Merz is better than cam Ward Miami fans cried about that I'll tell you why you are locked on Gators your daily podcast on the Florida Gators part of the locked on podcast Network your team everyday hello and welcome back to another episode of lockon Gator part of the lockdown podcast Network your team every day thanks for making lockdown Gators your first listen of the day every day we are available daily and free reviews in the podcast and on YouTube happy Thursday I'm Brandon Olson find me on Twitter at wns Brandon find all my written work with giants country ultimate college football head coach is a brand new mobile game that is completely free has no ads and is 100% playable offline use the promo code locked on CFB all caps inside the game right inside the game to receive a free boost to your program begin your coaching Legacy today and like I said in my opinion Graham Merz is better than cam Ward is a better quarterback than cam Ward okay I will say this I think that cam Ward will be drafted higher I know a lot of Florida Gator fans will probably disagree and they'll point to the turnovers here's the thing similar to the bad boyfriend analogy of oh we can fix him NFL teams will take that approach with Cam Ward he's very physically talented I think he's progressed year over-year I think that right now though the Florida Gators have the quarterback Advantage I do I think that Florida has the quarterback advantage in this game I mean you look at one of the most important parts of an offense is keeping them on schedule is keeping them in possession of the football right and here's the part where I know a lot of Miami fans are going to first off insult my looks again because it's all you guys ever do your predictable little bunch Game Manager and it's it's the game manager argument right because this is the part where grah Merz cleans up just about any any quarterback in the country grah Merz does this better then and that is protecting the football which was a major concern when he was coming out of Wisconsin it was which again I've said you know I think that offense I'm I'm not saying gr MZ is a highman caliber quarterback I do think that that offense with Wisconsin was really hamstring him because any passing situation is an obvious passing situation deep shot and still out of eye form under Center just just very archaic but when you look at 2023 gr Merz gr Merz had three interceptions all year okay three interceptions all year six turnover worthy plays all year right and and he had seven fumbles which is an which is an issue right but when we're talking about protecting the football 10 turnovers in a year I don't think it's bad I don't I think that 10 turnovers in a year or not even turnovers because he didn't lose all seven fumbles so 10 potential turnovers in a year I don't think that's bad at all especially when you look at the Utah interception hit Rickie piis in the shoulder pad popped up got picked you look at the Kentucky interception hit Arles Bingham in both hands got picked you look at the uh was it Missouri Missouri interception threw it to Arles Bingham hit him in the hand got picked all three of gr Mer's interceptions were tipped by his own receivers right all three outside of that an opposing player never caught a passive Mose then you look at cam Ward last year cam Ward had seven interceptions two against UCLA one against Arizona one against Stanford one against Cal two against Washington okay so camard had seven interceptions and then you talk about the fumbles and cam Ward had 14 he didn't lose all 14 of them but he had 14 fumbles and that's just no can do right like there's no other like that's just unacceptable quarterbacking to have 21 potential turnovers that that's that's tough stuff uh and even if you want to just talk about turnover worthy plays which R Merz had six and then again he had the seven fumbles so 13 turnover worthy plays on PFF cam Ward had 21 plus the 14 fumbles is 35 almost three a game that that protecting the football is something that like I know that a lot of people will talk about with gram mer of like why he didn't turn the ball over because he was checking it down uh that cam Ward had a really bad offensive line or whatever the argument may be this week cam Ward was pressured 173 times last year Graham Merz 120 and in also I will say this in one less game and of course with significantly fewer dropbacks they play very different offenses so sign which we'll talk about the pressure later on because that's I think going to be obviously a key deciding factor in this game I think everybody agrees with that uh but for me I look at one of the reasons that grah Merz is better than cam Ward right now is a better quarterback than cam W is his ability to keep the offense on schedule within structure and within structure I mean the busted plays blocking SC like working around those I think that Graham wz Graham Merz has a better job than cam ward of it I and I don't think that many people will argue that with me I mean gram Merz had one of the highest completion percentages in college football last year which again we'll talk about the uh the checkdown stuff but grars had one of the highest completion percentages in all of college football last year he was widely regarded as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the entire country Graham did his part to keep the offense on schedule the passing offense last year for the Florida Gators was really good where nothing on the defensive side was going right the Run game was not going well pass blocking was really bad realistically you look at that Florida Gator team last year and they win three games without Graham and if they have Graham for that final game and a half they probably win at least one of those they like you look at just just pure wind share and Graham Merz you lose South Carolina without him so you're at four wins there you definitely uh don't beat Missouri you lost that game right you could beat Missouri you were leading at a time could beat Missouri could beat FS you we're talking anywhere from a one to three swing one to three win swing there you definitely lose the South Carolina game without him like that kind of stuff just can't be overlooked I'm I'm sorry like I'm not even trying to be a homer I'm not saying Graham is this Heisman quarterback I'm not saying he's a superstar Elite quarterback I'm just saying right now I think he's a better pure quarterback than cam Ward especially when you consider gram merch is now entering year two in this system which is undeniable it's incredibly valuable for a quarterback to have a year or two in an offensive system as in same play caller same OC same scheme same team around him that invaluable so you compare that in year two to cam ward in game one with Miami I I have to say Graham and this is one of those things where I've said you know if we're having this game in week eight if this is happening then I'm probably leaning more towards Miami and I think that's fair I I think a big Advantage Florida has is not just that it's home but that it's game one you've got the more experienced quarterback again the guy that I think right now is a better quarterback against cam ward in game one for Miami I don't know how you can really debate it too much outside of Cam is physically more talented in that I'm not arguing that at all I'm not I think Cam's physically more talented I think cam will probably be a higher draft pick although we'll see the NFL has been really like bonck got drafted in the first round we'll see but I think right now I don't think you can argue much about Graham being a better pure quarterback than cam Ward and people will criticize Graham Merz for checking the ball down we'll talk about that next on lock on Gators you got your sandals you got your Ibata sunscreen you got your snacks for the kids things that you probably bought a lot of this summer it was a hot one and things that you will probably buy more of for August 31st when the Miami Hurricanes travel to play the Florida Gators but don't stress about the cost use ibata and get cash back on all of your purchases when you stock up on all of your Essentials ibata is a free app that lets you earn cash back every time you shop earn on hundreds of items from groceries to Beauty Supplies even toys so you can make sure that you're doing your best to beat inflation or at least negate the impact of inflation no matter what you're purchasing Right Now ibata is offering our listeners $ five for just trying ibata by using the code locked on College when you register just go to the app store or Google Play Store and download the free ibata app to start earning cash back and use code locked on College that's IBO TTA in the Google Play or App Store and use code locked on College thanks me locked on Gator your Nerd Talk first listen of the day every day we are available daily and free review in the podcast and on YouTube and we're going to hit nerd talk right now a little bit okay because the main argument about Graham Merz when I've listened to myami fans in Twitter spaces when I've read Miami fans what they say about Graham compared to cam Ward and a lot of it is that they call Graham Merz a basically check down Charlie right you know he's throwing everything short to the line of scrimmage real close to the line of scrimmage behind the line of scrimmage all that stuff that's the argument okay Graham MZ in 2023 had an average depth of Target of 6.7 yards um for those of you unfamiliar with average depth of Target average depth of Target is how far past the line of scrimmage the receiver is the target is when the quarterback throws it so it's different it's not from where he's standing in the pocket it doesn't matter if he's 25 yards back if the guy's five yards past the line of scrimmage it counts as an a DOT of five it doesn't include any yards after catch it's not yards it's on average how often are you how deep are you targeting a receiver okay so for GR Roes that was 6.7 yards for cam Ward that was 7.7 yards so cam ward has a full yard over him there right hope everybody gets that so far now we can talk about adding context to to that because both of these quarterbacks I don't know if you know this both of these quarterbacks gr gram Merz and cam Ward both threw a lot of passes behind the line of scrimmage okay Cam Ward played in an air raid for a lot of air raid teams they throw screens again air raid is is yeah you're going to throw the ball a lot but it's about getting rid of the ball quickly in catch and run opportunities it's giving you space it's it's it's one of those kinds of offenses and cam Ward at Washington State threw a lot of screens which is it a knock you're playing within structure with scheme he threw 106 screen passes last year okay gr merch threw 76 again cam Ward threw the ball a lot more so the volume's there but they both threw the ball about 19% of their passes or screens but again for the Miami fans that argue well when he's not throwing the screens because you can negate the screens again for both sets and you go well GR still is a check down Charlie like he still just throws it short every time that's an interesting approach so cam Ward his average depth of Target when you take away the behind the line of scrimmage passes so you take away the screens you take away any pop passes he may have had with Washington State his average depth of Target is 10.88 so on average when he wasn't throwing behind the line of scrimmage he was throwing 11 yards downfield just just shy of 11 yards downfield Graham Mer's average depth of Target excluding behind the line of scrimmage was 11.4 so almost 11 and a half yards downfield so they again they both threw behind the line of scrimmage a ton 19% of their passes each behind line of scrimmage so I remove the behind line of scrimmage passes that removes any fluff right no screens no pop passes no little flicks when you're in traffic doesn't count for any yard after catch obviously because it's not even counting for yards but that's what it was so on average when you exclude the pop passes which again Graham more so the pop passes than cam Ward cam more so the screens than the pop passes but when you remove those you greatly change the average depth of Target right I think everybody can understand that now it's not just about how far you're targeting the ball right it's not about how far you're throwing the ball if you're not throwing it accurately okay so when you remove the line of scrimmage or remove the passes behind the line of scrimmage Graham Mer's adjusted completion percentage is 73.9% and I say adjusted completion percentage because it's taking out the drops okay it it removes drops from the equation which I I think that's fair um just because it's showing basically how often you're accurately getting the ball to your receiver regardless of the outcome 73.9% cam Ward hear me out adjusted completion percentage when you remove the behind the line of scrimmage passes 73.9% they both have exactly 73.9% adjusted completion percentage again this is just uh removing drops from the equation which cam Ward had unsurprisingly significantly more drops when you consider he threw the ball significantly more times right crazy how that happens but they both had again a a sub eight average depth of Target total gram merch's average depth of Target when you remove the behind line of scrimmage passes goes to 11 and a half cam Wards average depth of Target when you when you exclude behind line of scrimmage passes goes to 10.88 so MZ on average throws the ball deeper than cam Ward when he's not doing the behind the screen the behind the line of scrimmage passes which is interesting because I've always been told oh that he he doesn't throw the ball deep at all that that's it like he he doesn't throw the ball deep as often as cam word which he doesn't to be fair there's less than a percentage Point cam ward 11.7% of his passes went 20 plus yards downfield Graham merch 10.8% so 0.9% difference there right Graham throws the ball in the intermediate range more often than cam Ward does so 10 to 19 yards that's 19% cam Ward's at 18.7 and then the short passes each combined for the rest FID which are the less relevant part uh Graham threw more more passes behind the line of scrimmage cam Ward through more passes between zero and N yards um and the percentage is kind of offset there but that's my point like Graham throws the ball deeper on average when you remove the behind line of scrimmage passes and his adjusted completion percentage is the same as cam Wards which Miami fans You could argue for when Florida Gator fans talk about the accuracy You could argue that like I'm I'm not I'm I'm giving you information here as well um I don't like you but I'm giving you information as well but gr Merz taking more difficult throws same completion percentage and then of course we have to talk about the the fun part where Miami fans this is kind of where you uh you really look forward to it is pressure on the quarterback because pressure is obviously going to play a huge part in this game we'll talk about that next on locked on Gators hey locked on Gator fans I want Sponsor to take a moment to give you a heads up on a brand new mobile game that I think you're going to love as much as I do ultimate college football head coach HC in this amazing game and simulation you get to step into the shoes of a head coach and lead your college football program to Glory Glory right from recruiting players hiring coaching staffs overseeing training camps handling scholarship counts you control every crucial detail of your program palm of your hands I'm holding my phone palm of your hands and here's what I love you're responsible for calling offensive plays during the game too so not only will you be focused 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think more often than not but again it's not something that I'm gonna really like I I don't I don't feel like this is such a drastic difference I want to make that clear I'm not saying cam is bad at all very much like cam Ward I just think right now Graham Merz is a better quarterback than him I think long term probably different conversation but right now it's Graham but I think that when you look at protecting the football Graham wins that one easily not even close not even a little bit close when you look at the average up the Target and an adjusted completion percentage very close but Graham has the slight Edge again very slight Edge there but then we talk about pressure where Cam Ward was under a lot of pressure last year partially due to his own fault um I don't think anybody can really argue that cam Ward takes a long time to throw the ball that's always been one of his things that he takes a really long time to throw the ball he's got one of the longest time to throws in college football especially like let's see can I see if you remove screens what is his average time to throw that's I'm looking that up you're you're seeing how the donuts get made right now yeah 3.1 second so it goes up from 2.8 to 3.1 seconds on average when he's not throwing screen uh pretty significant climb and just for comparison's sake uh Graham Merz goes to 2.97 so .13 or I forgot what cams was but yeah 3.1 yeah to point 2.97 um but pressure is obviously going to play a significant part cam W was heavily pressured last year year partially because of the offense just requiring him to drop back so many times he dropped back almost 600 times last year it's a lot um partially because that partially because of how bad his offensive line was which it was bad he was pressured on 173 uh dropbacks that was 30.5% of his dropbacks which really bad offensive line right gr Mars was dropped was pressured on 29.2 so 1.3% difference there um yeah that that kind of Gap so both were heavily pressured on a per drop back basis cam Ward was heavily pressured and on those pressures completed 44.7% of his passes obviously not good uh the adjusted completion percentage is 47.4 so just flip that grah mz's adjusted completion percentage when Under Pressure 64.3% it's 61.9% without the adjustment but 64.3% run under pressure that's a that is a almost 20 percentage Point difference there in just adjusted completion percentage when Under Pressure that's a wild Difference by the way um but it it is relevant that you know uh cam Ward will probably be under pressure significantly less than gram Ms this year right even with throwing the ball more they are theoretically going to have a pretty good offensive line um my concern for Miami's offensive line would mostly be at Center not not even an indictment on Zack Carpenter I thought Matt Lee was was really good um for a college Center thought he was a really good player there and he was really productive as well uh so it's just interesting to see the new center in the game in week one uh not the Florida has a great interior pass rushing threat right now so that's not even that's not even the concern for week one really it's just in in general enal but when you look at these quarterbacks Under Pressure Graham has been significantly more efficient right because Graham's got a nearly 20% completion percentage difference cam Under Pressure ward has been more aggressive which isn't surprising um and a lot of the time the cam Ward's Under Pressure I want to say it's his fault I do again I think cam holds the ball more than anybody else really but 4.33 seconds for time to time to throw when under pressure is wild to me that's insane to me four and a half seconds almost is ridiculous for any quarterback to hold the ball grabs at three and a half like that that's just such a stark difference for me um that it's really it it's kind of nuts um but yeah for for Florida I think we talk about the pressure in this game I talked about it yesterday in the second segment I think you got to keep Hayden Hansen in the pass block and I know that a lot of people it was weird I don't know Miami fans were arguing with me because I was saying that Ruben Bane was great but not a game breaker and and that upset like don't don't be sensitive about stuff like that uh I'm still complimenting the player just not as much as you want me to compliment him um but I think you got to keep hating on his side think he's a damn good pass rusher I think that on the interior I I'm not worried with anybody that Miami has um and as far as anybody else that they're expecting to play whether it's uh mesidor Austin I think the other one was um let me see it then simple as that uh need to see it there but for Florida I think you know keeping Graham clean is obviously goal number one when you look at the difference he completed considerably more passes he had a 75.2% completion percentage when he was throwing deep or when he was uh kept clean he had a 5.9% average up the target a lot of that is because the pop passes same thing for the completion percentage uh pop passes screens all play a part in that cam Ward 73.4% completion percentage when kept clean 6.9 yard average set of Target so a yard deeper than Graham Merz which isn't surprising when you talk about cam Ward had an overall completion uh average up of the target one yard deep than Graham mer did but I don't I I feel like when you watch both of these quarterbacks run an offense I feel like Graham does a better job of keeping them in structure cam probably does a better job when it gets to out of structure but look you're in structure more often than you're out of structure and if you're not you're probably not a good football team if you're worried about going out of structure more than saying in structure you're probably not a good football team so I think that when you're looking at just keeping Graham Merz clean has to be priority number one but also getting to cam Ward because comparatively cam Ward is terrible against pressure compared to grars Again part of that is that he's throwing the ball deeper when he's under pressure which another explanation for that is that he's holding the ball longer when he's looking for the Deep pass he's holding the ball longer he's throwing the ball it's increasing his average up the target but cam Ward I mean Under Pressure throughout his career has just been a bus and I think that's that's one of those big tradeoffs where and it's not even me giving an opinion for this one this is me just talking um but that trade-off is interesting to me of Graham will be under pressure more but has been really good Under Pressure cam will be under pressure less but has been really bad Under Pressure I'm curious the tradeoff of well Graham will be under pressure more will that give you more backbreaking Blaze as Miami's defense more strip sack just sack in general whatever maybe I'm curious if that volume will negate Florida where yeah hey you might not get as much pressure but when you do you got a really good chance of making a play uh so I'm just curious there for for that's just my thought I don't even again I don't have an opinion there I'm just very curious uh Miami's interior of the offensive line like if I'm Florida I'm putting Kelby Collins at basically nose every now and then same thing with Caleb Banks and Joey slackman just in passing situations I'm putting them at nose and just testing Zack Carpenter again you lost Matt Lee this is the first game new center there which does matter for commanding the rest of the offensive line Florida Gator fans are well aware of that um we we we've lived through that so I'm curious to see how the offensive line just works there uh up front especially if you give them some exotic looks just because it's going to be their first game communicating uh on the road in a crowd in a loud environment but cam Ward needs to be protected uh because when he is pressured things go south quick uh but again Graham going to be pressured more I think Miami's got a promising pass rush uh keeping extra pass protectors there will absolutely matter but when Under Pressure Graham's given you less back breaking plays he still has not turned the ball over for you I don't care what he did at Wisconsin he hasn't turned the ball over for you here and he has a year here so so we can base it on that year uh but I think that when you look at it it's a marginal difference that's why like when people argue I say I think Graham's a better quarterback than cam Ward right now when Miami fans argue with me on Twitter I don't even argue back with them because I think it's close enough where you can kind of just go yeah I see it either way that's how I think I don't think it's a drastic difference at all it's just I think you have the better quarterback if you're the Florida Gators right now is what it is thanks for making lock on gers your first listen of the day every day we are available daily and free reviews in the podcast and on YouTube we'll be back tomorrow talk more Florida Gator football for lock on Gator I'm Brandon Olson don't forget to follow me on Twitter at wns Brandon by know my written r with giants country NFL 33 and I'll see you all next time