Florida Gators, Miami Hurricanes Preview - Billy Napier, Graham Mertz vs Mario Cristobal, Cam Ward

it's finally going down this Saturday you got cam Ward at Miami Graham Merz at Florida who's got the quarterback Ed you are locked on Gators your daily podcast on the Florida Gators part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day welcome into this locked on crossover event he is Brandon Olsen from lock on Gators I am Alex from lockon canes thank you so much to the every dayers for making our shows your first listens and your first watch today we're available free wherever you get your podcast we're free on YouTube We're part of the lockon podcast Network your team every day today's episode is brought to you by Five Hour Energy 5our energy fixes tired fast zero sugar a convenient portable size it's the perfect pickme up for getting stuff done go to 5our energy.com use promo code locked on CFB to receive 20% off your order this offer is only valid till September 30th in one order cannot be used with other promotions go to 5our energy.com today on this episode we are going to give you our game predictions now that we're only two days away uh we're g to talk about the swamp factor with Miami going to a historically very difficult place to play we'll talk about uh what we know and what we think about what the depth charts are going to look like Florida's actually released a depth chart Miami has not yet but I want to start with the quarterbacks now Brandon um I I I've noticed this like ground swell and I think you might have been the guy who started this and it's kind of gone viral this idea that Mr checkdown Graham Merz is gonna hold the quarterback advantage over cam Ward at Miami give me your take interesting that you call him Mr checkdown did you know that when you remove the screens and everything Graham Ward actually or Graham W gram Merz actually on average throws the ball deeper than cam Ward same completion percentage too which is cam Ward benefit of of having the completion percentage of Mr completion percentage over there in Graham mer so good for cam Ward there but yeah I'm just saying on average when you remove the screens and little pop passes which for I mean cam Ward at Washington State and grahammer to Florida last year was a large chunk of their passes when you remove those Graham actually on average throws the ball further down field then cam Ward well I mean I saw last year only 39 passes over 20 are yards for Merch so wasn't exactly like he was feasting down the field I think he completed 16 of those yep he completed 16 of those but I do think that him still having a further average at the Target just shows that he was pushing it pretty consistently in that I I and it's only like a a one yard difference between the two um so it's a very small Gap there but yeah gram Merz on average if you remove the screens through it further than cam Ward um and and again I I I think that part of what I've been saying has also been completely taken out of context with it I think Graham Merz in year two gives you an advantage over cam ward in game one I think cam ward has a higher ceiling I think he's probably going to be a higher NFL draft pick which we will find out for both of them this April I think cam will be a higher draft pick I think cam ward has a higher ceiling I think Graham Merz in year two has that higher floor than cam Ward does in game one and especially when you consider that game one is one of the hardest places on the planet to play football I I think it makes sense the way that you you frame that and and and imagine college football fans taking something you said out of context The Logical The Logical I can only imagine that happening because yeah listen it the stability is important and you know for for Ward um you I've watched him since January at Miami but you can only really Project without having actually seen him play a game in a Miami Hurricane's uniform because I I've seen a guy who since arriving at Miami in January has been very meticulous about getting to know his teammates on and off the field getting to know the offense very quickly similar plays to what he had at Washington State the offense uh fit him like a glove but you don't you don't really know until you know so I definitely get that uh you know Miami fans obviously feel very good about what cam Ward is bringing to the offense this year uh seeing him put up ridiculous ulous numbers the last couple years at Washington State last season for Ward it was 66.6% completions 3,735 yards 25 touchdowns seven interceptions and I know I know the stat that it certainly gets brought up a lot in Gator circles and I get it it's concerning uh the turnover specifically the fumbles uh he did uh put the ball to the turf 14 times last season and and I know Brandon in Ward's case there obviously can be maybe a higher upside of playmaking than what Graham mertzes possesses but probably a lower floor when it comes to what Ward is going to bring into this game um you know as far as the turnovers go you know the the interceptions were not high for Ward last year he threw seven of them to 25 touchdowns it's really the fumbles that we have to look at here and so uh I'm going into this game with eyes wide open hope hoping that those issues have been put behind him because I know ball security is something he's really been working on since he arrived at Miami and then I think we're also going to find out this year how much of that fumbling had to do with the piss poor pass protection that he was dealing with at Washington State because they were bottom fourth in the country in pass protection Miami should project out a lot better throughout the season and that but I know that that's something we're kind of watching for because maybe Brandon we expect that you know Ward might take some more chances down the field than Merz but then there's also the possibilities of mistakes being made yeah I also feel like the not to say that Washington Washington State's offensive line wasn't just horrendous um just I was trying to think of a nicer word they were just horrendous last year but not to say they weren't horrendous but just I do feel like cam ward has the tendency of course to to try to herob ball things scramble around a little because I know that a lot of people bring up the the uh the the one of the longest time to throws in the entire country part of that is because he's extending plays with his legs and then looking for someone downfield which to his credit is a thing that NFL teams are going to look forward they're gonna say hey when you're rolling around are you still looking with your eyes down field uh but I do feel like part of it is sometimes he he got into the the the Caleb Williams habit where Caleb Williams of the USC teams could drop back and he would make a mistake on his own somehow he would scramble around too long and I feel like cam Ward did that so I'm curious to see what the Gator's approach is of if they're going to go hey well cam Ward is throughout his career really bad when throwing Under Pressure cam ward has the fumble issues when you get him in the back field do we be really aggressive or do you go well cam word has has the issue of when you drop into coverage and there's no one there he tends to kind of make a mistake himself so I'm curious what the approach is going to be there behind I me I mean look I I've been the guy in the offseason where I've said hey you know Miami's got these transfers and got to see how they work together and how they jel together offensive Line's one of the few areas where I don't really have that concern for obviously that coaching staff in Miami they they've been proven to be able to at least put out good offensive line units there uh so I'm curious to see what the pass rush plan is against cam Ward with what should be a really good offensive line in front of him yeah no doubt and I'm also like from a Miami side you know when we talk about Ward having played a lot of hero ball at Washington State the last couple of years um what Miami's pass to run ratio is going to look like specifically in this game because uh you know Miami does have hopefully opportunities I and I I believe Florida's probably improved their rushing defense from last year for your sake I hope they have uh but you know Miami is going to have Damen Martinez leading that charge coming off of a just under 1200 yard season last year uh so in terms of what Florida's offensive balance is going to look like we we'll talk more about you know the actual health of the running back room a little bit later on but um do you think it's going to be 55 60% throws or do you think Billy's really gonna try to establish a power running game this Saturday I do think that I I feel like they're going to have the the Run game and the extension of the Run game type thing with the pop passes and the screens it's the way around what's again expected to be a good pass rush that's one area where I'm fully standing on I need to see it from from the Miami defensive line as a unit obviously Ruben Bane really good um but I I think that that's what you'll see especially with the new running clock games have been shorter uh the Florida State game versus Georgia Tech Florida state had what seven possessions the entire game Florida's historically Billy Napier has been the kind of coach that wants to run the ball wants to run the clock I'm expecting to see Florida run the ball consistently as in just frequency wise I don't know about success rate what that's going to look like but run the ball consistently throw screens pop passes keep the clock moving keep the chains moving and hopefully give Miami just less opportunities especially when you're the home team and and you you know as long as you're in the game the crowd will be in the game and I think that that's going to be part of it of just score pretty consistently crowd Get Loud defense make a play here and there and then you're you're right into it uh so I think the plan will be relatively conservative on offense I don't think Florida Gator fans are going to like that but I think that's going to be the plan that's Billy Napier's plan historically when he's an underdog yeah and this is uh you mentioned the swamp this is a tough road trip from Miami you know Florida Florida doesn't lose there a lot you know Miami does have a I think a 12- n alltime record at the swamp but I mean what that actually means for Saturday very little but it's some historical context I want to talk about the swamp Factor and I want to talk about uh what the Florida depth chart looks like what I I think the Miami depth chart might look like and guys this is a an epic crossover event we're only getting started right here on the lockdown podcast Network you wonder why um I I usually have a good amount of energy when I host shows on the lockdown Network it's because I'm drinking Five Hour Energy no I'm guzzling 5H Hour Energy here folks if you get tired after lunch you're not alone in fact research shows that more than 70% of us hit the wall after lunch let 5H Hour Energy let a shot of 5H hour help you leap over that wall instead of crashing into it with zero sugar and a convenient portable size it's the perfect pickme up for getting stuff done the 5H Hour Energy website has flavors like watermelon tropical burst grape Berry and more there's a flavor for everyone try them all on the site you even have the option to build your own 12pack or 24 pack you choose the flavors and it's delivered right to your door if you go to five hour energy.com that is the number 5our energy.com get some 5our energy product today you can use our promo code locked on CFB to receive 20% off your order this offer is only valid till September 30th on one order cannot be used with other promotions the code is not good on subscription orders go to 5our energy.com today thank you so much for making this locked on kan's Gator crossover your first listen and your first watch today for your next list listen make sure you check out lockon college football our guy Spencer mlin that dude is working overtime covering all the big games all the big story lines as we head into week one you know week zero was a nice appetizer but week one is going to have a lot of awesome games this weekend I think including uh Miami at Florida 3:30 pm and you know Brandon that uh Florida Florida is a tough building to win and I know like Miami fans will joke like all the Gator fans talk about is the swamp and the advance but it is it is an advantage especially I think in a season opener when Miami's going to be you know dealing with hostility for the first time in a long time yeah um I mean Florida's won what 33 straight home openers by the way I don't know if you've watched today's episode of lock on college football um Spencer picks Florida to win this game I just like throw that one out there I know why because he he's a Mario Chris Ball bitter X that's why he he he he loved Chris the ball until Chris Ball told Phil Knight no thanks I'm going to Miami then they all turned on the guy yeah imagine being upset about losing a guy and then upgrading at the head coach position it's wild stuff to see there for uh for Oregon good for them but um with the swamp Factor here I do think it look Florida's 133 straight home openers we've seen better teams than Florida go into Florida and lose like Utah was better than Florida in 2022 straight up outright Utah won the pack 12 in 2022 they still came into the swamp with a quarterback that's been there for 45 years and they lost in the swamp with with all that experience with all the the I mean we kept hearing about how their retention rate was so great and that they were going to be experienced and capable of playing here it just got even harder this year I I do think that teams with good home field advantages just got better this year at home because of the inh helmet communication um you see Team teams when they go to play I don't know the Chiefs for example in the NFL you see the opposing quarterbacks they're covering the ears they're trying to hear it College stadiums are typically louder than a lot of these NFL stadiums uh the swamp being one of those I think it's going to be harder I think that if we see them try the helmet communication at all they'll probably cut ties with that relatively early on um if if they are now making good in-game adjustments if if Miami is doing that then I think that they'll cut those helmet Communications off and start going to a more you know silent count with everything go to Old School sideline signs whatever it may be uh but I do think that the helmet communication is going to be quite a struggle for all teams in the swamp but I think that's another Advantage especially this is going to be cam Ward's first game situation doing that and and trying to operate with that again assuming that they try to operate with that during this game actually actually and I do think that's just an added benefit to playing in Gainesville it's really tough to win there especially in week one yeah it seems like uh with and I've heard this not only from Miami coaches but from coaches around the country there's definitely kind of a a little bit of a clunky adaptation to the helmet communication I think it's something that's going to be a great long-term benefit but as far as like these first games of the Season using those it's and and I I hear that like they go out a lot which is like I I feel like in 2024 we should have better technology than that if these things are going out frequently but it's definitely something to think about and and listen I I definitely I respect uh I respect the swamp I'm going to be in the swamp this weekend so I'm gonna experience it firsthand now I want to allow you to clear the air on something because I I've been getting these and it's like I didn't actually hear you say this so I'm assuming there was a little bit of contextual uh Massacre on this because I've had people sending to me uh tweets claiming that you are heralding uh humidity as a big reason why Florida is going to have an advantage over over Miami that the humidity factor is going to be a big thing for the Gators did you say that well apparently to everything that I've said over the past two weeks has been tweeted in some way shape or form um that's been one thing there but what I said quickly relatively quickly was just that I do think that Florida is a little bit more humid than or that Gainesville is a bit more humid than Coral Gables there's less of a breeze and that that might have a slight factor I was never like oh yeah this is gonna be the deciding factor of the game no it's just that there might be a slight Factor there with again Gainesville just being more humid than Coral Gables on an average basis uh but afternoon I feel like there's not going to be probably that big of a difference between them um but no I was not sitting here going that's why Florida's winning it was a home field advantage matters and then maybe 30 seconds talking about it and it was just like Miami fans just like oh this guy thinks he's a meteorologist it it would be kind of like saying like oh this November the uh in the CFL the Edmonton Elks are gonna have a huge huge advantage over the Calgary stampeder it's a half degree colder in Edmonton on average huge Advantage like adds up no but in all seriousness um so Flor Florida did put out uh a depth chart and and you know one of the and I'm sure that there are other things that caught your attention the first thing that caught my attention was you know just kind of knowing that maybe the injury stat status of running back Montreal Johnson has been up in the air since he suffered a a a minor knee injury but he did have a have a procedure done early in training camp but seeing him listed as running back one uh is is there maybe a little gamesmanship there like do you think he's ready to carry a full load uh is he good to go what's the word out of Gainesville we've been told that if he shows up at the top of that depth chart he's playing and he showed up at the top of the dep chart I don't deny that he's going to play I just really don't think he's going to have much of a workload maybe their plan is keep him on the field primarily passing Downs that you have your best pass protecting back on the field right I really I just can't see him participating a ton I do also know that maybe part of their plan is play him against Miami next week you have Samford so give him the whole week off and then worry about it when you go back to SEC play in week three against Texas A&M but yeah I just I really can't see him getting a ton of touches I I just ref I'm typical in injury non-believer here this is the only I go conspiracy theorist of I just I refuse to believe that guys who were banged up are all of a sudden back like that like it's just it doesn't make sense to me and I said this when uh when montol got hurt I said if I'm Florida up until the game actually starts I'm giving Miami a belief that he's going to be out there we saw Florida deal with it with Utah last year last year Utah was like oh Cam Rising is going to be ready to go in week one didn't play remember that I remember they had him they had him warm up but like he warmed up with a walking boot on I'm like wait what yeah it it was a wild thing to see it wouldn't shock me if Billy nap's like you know what we prepared for that though that was a good idea and now we're gonna do it um I I just I can't see mantro getting a ton of touches I know that even internally they feel like he's made significant progress it's just really tough for me to go yeah the guy that got his knee scop three weeks ago is going to be ready to carry a full load against what's expected to be a a pretty good Miami defense I just I can't buy it I refuse to when he's on the field and playing then I'll buy it but until then I think it's gamesmanship yeah I hear that uh now you know Miami has not uh put out a depth chart yet I don't I don't expect we're even going to see one till maybe a couple of hours before kickoff and you know when I when I do get my hands on that depth chart uh at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday the first thing most Miami folks will be looking for I think is who who's the starting left guard uh that that's been like one of the few like really open competitions during fall Camp um you know I might be wrong this is an educated guess on my part I think Matt McCoy is going to be the starting left guard it sounds like things have been trending in that direction like we'll be looking to see you know who have all the uh the starting spots in the defensive secondary you know is deari Brown going to be a starting corner or starting at the nickel is one of the things we're going to be looking at Meese Powell is he going to be starting at at free safety or starting at the nickel so there there's going to be a few things there and then like another thing BR Brandon people and I'm sure there this is gonna happen on both sides they read very much into the twos threes and and the ores because there there's always you know I noticed this on the Florida's depth chart there's a lot of ores in there the Miami depth chart is going to have a lot of ores because I know one of the big things Miami people will be looking at are who are the starting Edge rushers because that's probably the deepest part of Miami's team and if it's like you know Ruben Bane probably going to be a starter is it AEM mesidor is it Ruben Bane and Tyler Baron Ruben Bane and Elijah Alon I mean no matter what I I think Miami is gonna have a rotation I think all those guys are going to play quite a bit so I at certain positions I don't read too much into the depth chart because I know there's going to be rotation and defensive end is going to be one of those spots for Miami yeah I look at Florida's ORS as that's just an indicator that they're going to play that's it I I don't even look at it as far as who's going to play more snaps even regardless of who's first or second I just look at it as who's going to play I mean Florida even all of their ores are listed just numerically it's just straight jersey number that's all it is that's how they sorted it so it's not like they're you know giving any Trade Secrets away there or anything like that um I am interested to see Miami's edges because I know that um all tremendously productive pass Treasurer but you know not not at the power four level yet uh Ruben Bane I don't even need to talk about him we know what Ruben Bane is um you have Tyler Baron I don't know man uh Tyler Baron if he's out there starting is not the one that scares me in any way shape or form just because I've seen him be completely unproductive throughout his entire career against the Florida Gators uh maybe he's he's taken strides but he's played opposite a really good Edge rusher last year James Pierce has projected to be the first Edge rusher drafted a top five projection right now and Tyler Baron played opposite him and wasn't very productive mesidor is just someone that has been banged up we'll we'll see what we actually see from him on the field uh this weekend but I'm curious to see just in general what the defensive line Looks like not just the edge for Miami because that's something that's been so highly touted but also there's a lot of portal additions and guys stepping up so I'm just curious to see what that rotation looks like not even just the depth Jes what the actual snap count and that rotation looks like for Miami against a new Florida offensive line yeah I'm with you on that all right it's time to put ourselves on the hot seats and make these predictions when we come back locked on kan's locked on Gator crossover who's winning on Saturday and and by how much who's covering that spread you want to keep it locked right here we're not done yet on this brand new lock on crossover and by the way if you're looking for an opportunity no matter what direction you're betting in whether you go Miami minus two and a half Florida plus two and a half money I mean the line is so close you're probably looking at maybe money line either way uh you want to take a look at this at FanDuel you've heard us on this network talk so much about FanDuel America's number one sports book well we have something a little different for you now through September 22nd all FanDuel customers can bet five and get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV I may not leave my couch all Sunday coming up then with a YouTube TV Bas plan you'll be able to watch every regular season Sunday afternoon out of Market game all you need is a Google account and a current form of payment and you can cancel anytime just visit fanduel.com lockon to download America's number one Sportsbook we are also proudly brought to you by Factor meals I love this because the prep 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your first box plus 20% off your next month while your subscription is active thank you so much for making this lock on crossover your first listen and your first watch each and every day and and I would highly recommend like for the for the locked on canes viewers make sure you're checking out locked on Gators if you wantan to you want to scout the other side locked on Gators you if you want to hate watch locked on canes I encourage you guys to check out both sides uh you know Brandon and I we both work incredibly hard and we're very excited for this matchup on Saturday and all right Mr Olsen who are you picking and how you think this game plays out I'm picking Florida 272 24 um I've said all offseason I've said I think it's a really close game all offseason I said I think these two teams talent-wise are closer than either side is giving them credit for I think Florida Gator fans might be leaning too heavily on oh that Miami did so much in the portal that they can't be good right away which I I do think is is fair I just think it's leaning way too heavily on that um Miami fans I think are leaning way too heavily on Florida won five games last year their offensive line was bad grammer's average depth of Target things like that that I don't know if there'll be issues this year but I'm I'm confident that the teams at least improved in quite a few of the areas that have been brought up um and and I think that for Florida that home field advantage does matter you know we talk about gambling I think Florida is one of the few spots that gets maybe three and a half four points when it comes to spread time just because Florida at home has historically been pretty good um but I think when these two teams are as close as they are I again I think Florida at least because this game is week one I think Florida's quarterback situation is just better right now I've said all offseason if this game's week eight I'm probably leaning more Miami but it's week one and so for that I'm taking Florida to win um I did I did not bet the spread I just straight up Florida money line plus 125 bet at May 31st at 10:24 in the morning and that is exactly what we're see I looked at it before this uh and that is exactly what I'm scking with since then you know you know what's funny because we I think we have the exact same score because I I went I went on because I like I I don't want to like change it now just to be different from you because I've I've already been and I don't have the gator winning but I have the same score in Miami's favor because I went on record with that yesterday uh 2724 you know I know we talked about this a little bit a couple weeks ago the last time we connected that I think it's going to be a relatively low-scoring game week one for you know for power four matchups I I tend to go with unders I think it's 54 and a half was the number pretty recently so I guess we're both going right under that um I I I just think to me um it's going to be a close game I don't think anyone is going to create any sort of Separation until the fourth quarter if at all and I I just think for me the edge for Miami it's GNA be a slight Edge at the line of scrimmage and it's going to be an edge I think with fresh legs at running back you know you talked about wondering if you know how much Montell Johnson is going to play you know as far as we know on the Miami side Mark Fletcher's good to go now he he is recovering from an injury in the bowl game last year but he's been full go no restrictions in practice Damen Martinez is going to be Miami's starting running back of course but if Miami can add a steady dose of Fletcher where you're going to have a pair of running backs who are over six foot and over 225 pounds I think that that can help maybe wear down a defense a little bit so obviously cam Ward is going to have to make some plays but I I think uh I think the power running game and the line of scrimmage play uh might be the difference here in Miami's favor but I I think and we both probably agree on this Brandon I think this is going to be the type of game where we're gonna be on the edges of our seats the entire time like we're not going to have that moment in the third quarter where it's like all right I'm good I'm gonna kick up my feet maybe go split screen with something I think this is going to be a tense one throughout this could be a 40-point game in the third quarter and I'm not giving up a single I'm still G to be sitting on the edge my seat just like oh something scw is about to happen um yeah I think it's GNA be close especially like I talked about earlier with with the Florida State game Florida state had seven total possessions like I think that with how with these new running clock rules until coaches adjust you're probably going to see lower scoring games um that's been the trend through week zero we'll see how that carries on but I think that that's going to play an important part in keeping this game close and I've said the only thing that I'm confident in is that this is going to be a close game like it could be high scoring I think it'll be lows scoring but it could be high scoring low scoring and I just the only thing I'm really supremely confident in is that this is going to be a very close game again I think these two teams are ilar talent wise and it's just for me it's week one it's going to be close it's rivalry they hate each other I hate every Miami fan that's not named Alex donno um so I I feel like with with this it's just all I know is that it's gonna be close probably ugly yeah an important game for both teams and you and I will be uh connecting in Gainesville over the weekend we'll talk more about it uh we appreciate everyone tuning in again make sure you check out and subscribe to locked on Gators and to locked on K and we'll talk to you guys again next time on another episode right here on the locked on podcast Network your team every day