Fresno State vs Michigan Prediction, Picks and Best Bets | College Football Picks Week 1

Wolverines were a dominant national champion last year but they do look down a notch this year a lot of turnover a lot of changes and it's a play against team but is it a play against team in week one can Fresno pull the big upset as a 21-point dog plus 900 on the money line I'll let you know how to play this game and make some money that's coming up free with analysis in just a moment hi this is Steve Merill wagertalk.com right back here on wager talk TV and be sure to check out the other free previews I did one for Clemson Georgia this week as well right here in the channel so click subscribe and hit the bell for instant alert when these free play videos go up each and every day of the week here on wager talk TV Michigan is down a notch this year they're expected to lose multiple games if you look at their season win total but I don't think this will be one of them in fact the fact that they are a play against team for a lot of sharp betters this year will have this team motivated and that's bad news for Fresno now in paper Fresno looks pretty dangerous offensively returning quarterback veteran offensive players but they don't have much of a running game and Michigan's run defense for years has been exremely extremely Stout uh this is going to be pass only for Fresno very one-dimensional and I think that'll allow Michigan to keep them in check now the Wolverines might be a little sluggish to start on offense too we have seen some sharp money push this total down quite a bit here in the past few weeks it opened its high as 482 it's now down to 45 A2 but I like Michigan minus 21 or less and so you got to be careful with the total when it's a big favor because you probably need them to put some points up and I do think they pull away late in this game and they covered the 21 early on in college football I'm always looking to play Big favorites as they have the entire entire summer to prepare um it's a focused spot you know when a better team is focused that's when you want to play them and when it's a a game you're leading up to for several weeks at your home opener those teams usually come ready to play and the fact that Michigan has a chip on their shoulder despite being the national champs Harbaugh is gone a lot of key turnover and everyone's kind of writing them off everyone thinks it's Ohio States uh to win this year not Michigan's I think that has the Wolverines focused here and it's bad news for Fresno State and although Fresno is talented not sure they're ready for prime time players talented and the reason I bring that up is let's look at last year when they were stepping up in class um they weren't an underdog in too many games in fact they upset Purdue in week one as a four-point dog yet another reason why I think Michigan will be fully focused but then they were actually favored in their next seven or eight games I believe until playing San Jose State in early November two-point dog they lost that game by 24 points on the road and then they were favored in their next couple games did pull an upset on the Bowl against New Mexico State not going to read much into that but as you can see they did not play many games from an underdog perspective last year and the year before same thing as well you look over that schedule they were a Dogg at boyy State midseason is a 10-point dog they lost by 20 and early in the season week three a couple years ago they're an 11-point dog at USC and they lost that game by 28 points so Fresno's good they're talented but they're not at the level of Michigan and I think the Wolverines have a chip on their shoulder if you're going to play it I would lay it atus 21 or less that's at 7:30 Eastern Saturday night on BC National TV hey comment below let me know your thoughts on this game what other games are you looking at for this week one of college football I mentioned I've got a free preview play for you a free play and a free preview for you that Clemson Georgia game also here on the 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