Bigger Ten #004 | 2020 Big Ten Football Schedule Analysis

on the gridiron the concepting affected in the metro the fans who love the crunch of the pants and expect nothing the best [Music] it's bigger tech ears Steve days greetings welcome to this week's episode of bigger ten I'm Steve ace alongside my zombie co-host the eternally on hail skinned undead Aaron McIntire good to see you again up and semi breathing my friend how are you I'm doing okay you know I think most of us in Iowa in the Upper Midwest this time of the year are terminally undead sorry for the redundancy because of the the weather out there I don't think I've seen the Sun for like three months or so what what's the Sun exactly exactly we are definitely in the midst of desolation but we are here to warm your hearts with thoughts of pumpkin spice and turning leaves and football on the gridiron and the the pop of the pads right the the pageantry of of the bands I know we just ended a season but it's never too early to take a look ahead to the next season what say you mr. McIntyre I'm all for that I'm all for that indeed and so courtesy of our friends over at college football news.com our big five stories this week on the Big Ten are on the bigger 10 I should say our big five stories on the bigger 10 this week all come from college football News's analysis of the 2020 football schedules in the Big Ten so we're gonna take these one by one Erin are you ready to go let's do it let's start with I think they're kind of over blowing this one but they're talking about Iowa Maryland and also Rutgers well first of all just based on his personnel Rutgers always has the toughest schedule in the Big Ten until further notice you don't even look at the slate you just look at their personnel and you know it's tough but what college football news is pointing out about Iowa Maryland and Rutgers and I would imagine for you by the way as an Iowa fan that took it for several years some other Big Ten fans about your soft schedule yep this is the second year in a row that Iowa has what's considered one of the toughest schedules in the league and you know you guys had one of the toughest schedules only last year and you won ten games so how you like them apples right right well these are the three teams that face more than two opponents this season coming off of byes in fact these three teams have three opponents this year coming off of byes and college football news calm says hey that puts them at a major disadvantage what say you where I think it depends on it definitely depends on which opponents you've got coming off of byes now if you've got Ohio State coming off of by or with with Iowa all of the time if you're playing Wisconsin coming off of by which we are I almost every year it seems like both teams have had byes before they play each other those are games where there's some extra juice there that you and there's the possibility for extra extra exotics but I don't I'm not totally sold not totally sold that that just because you've had extra teams that you're playing coming off of buys that that automatically means that you're that you're going to be at a disadvantage of course it helps of course it helps anybody it's such a physical game football I don't need to tell anybody that so it helps healing up and things of that nature but I don't really think it's gonna make or break a season you know if you're playing two or three teams coming off of wise before you play them it it does it does kind of sting though still a little bit I think when we get into conference play particularly divisional play and you're just used to playing these teams every year unless there's a coaching staff change I don't know that you get a strategic advantage from a by as much as fans think you know that that's kind of a fan trope like opening week of the season you I can just tell you right now every team that doesn't perform up to expectations opening week against some scrub all right their fan base is gonna call every local talk show and say what well we were holding back yeah now we don't want to put anything on film yeah oh yeah we didn't huh show him we got the win didn't show them anything right that's that's a common fan trope and if your team won their bowl game you've got everybody coming back next year that's another common fan trope you know that's that's just part and parcel with college football where the where the buys do hurt you or and help the opponent more than I think strategically and that's not to say that they never help you strategically I just think when there's so much familiarity it gets harder and harder to trick people okay but where it can really help you is when you're facing teams I get an extra week to get guys healed up meaning hey this guy would it would have been out with a concussion last week would have been in the concussion protocol but with the by week that guys back now or or those soft tissue kind of injuries that you know only rest really can help you with that's where those things can become a bigger issue for you the next thing that college football news mentions here in its in its look at look ahead to Big Ten 2020 schedules is who gets off easy who gets the the big breaks from a schedule perspective they mentioned Wisconsin which gets a break not having to play Penn State or Ohio State which also means Penn State gets a break by not getting a crossover game with Wisconsin Wisconsin has had quite a bit of roster attrition by the way another team that they think gets a break is Purdue who does have Michigan on the road in the in one of its cross-divisional games but misses Ohio State Penn State and Michigan State in its crossover conference game so those are the teams conversely Penn State Wisconsin and then Purdue that college football news says gets the scheduling break from the Big Ten office coming this fall well the bigger 10 Twitter account I believe it was the other day reak retweeted a stat I think from pic 6 previews which is a great night follow on Twitter you need to be following them about the number combined for and five-star commits for the Big Ten East and the Big Ten West over the last four or five years I believe and the gap is narrowing between the Big Ten yeast and the big 10 west and the reason why I say that in the context of this conversation is that I don't think anybody has any brakes anymore any big-time breaks with a schedule I mean the only thing only break you can really say is not having to go and play a wideout against that guy in his Tim James Franklin and and Penn State and the brake you can also get is not having to play Ohio State at all other than that the talent gap in both of these conferences is is narrowing quite a bit the talent cap and I think the overall coaching gap when you look at the job that pj fleck has done Jeff Brohm is going to be doing again I believe this this the season as well there's really nobody who gets off easy now that is to say but again if you're if you're a team from the West who doesn't have to play you know Penn State or one of two Ohio State or Michigan then you're probably going to be an advanced you add at an advantage over the rest of the league so that's really all I have to say about that I mean I just don't think there's much of getting off easy as I would did back in 2015 you ments mentioned their week schedule before there's not much of that going on anymore one thing to keep in mind and I do think when you've got programs like Purdue Minnesota Wisconsin may have a top 25 class this year but when you have those programs recruiting better than then we're accustomed to which is why they're you're seeing that gap in four and five-star recruits closed between the East and the West that you cited from pick six previews what who knows how relevant this trend will continue to be but until proven otherwise keep this in mind since we went to the east-west divisions all right in the Big Ten nobody has won the West other than Wisconsin if they've had to play two of these three teams Penn State Michigan and Ohio State okay Wisconsin is the only team they've done it twice were they won the division while having to play at least two of those three including just last year when they had to play Ohio State and Michigan all right but other than that if you if every other team other than Wisconsin that's one this division didn't have to play two of those three that's something to keep in mind now these are the trap games that college football news is warning about all right the first one I a hundred percent agree with Cincinnati team that what 112 games this year or maybe it's 11 still had a really good team they bring in a lot back don't be surprised if Cincinnati's not the highest rated group of five team when the magazine's come out here around the 1st of June Nebraska is hosting Cincinnati early in the season I absolutely agree that that is a potential trap game Memphis and airforce were two of the best group of five teams this past season Purdue plays both of them okay how about Wisconsin against Appalachian state which almost was the group of five representative in the new year six and this year they're bringing quite a bit back a new coach there this is the second year in a row though that Appalachian State is gonna have a new coach Michigan State's non-conference schedule with BYU and Miami I think I think their whole non-conference schedule basically could be a potential trap game and we have seen Northern Illinois beat some power five teams in the past remember they just went in Lincoln a couple of years ago Northern Illinois plays both Maryland and Iowa alright so any of those strike you as potential trap games I think the first one that you mentioned Cincinnati versus Nebraska I guess you do I guess you can look at it two ways if you're a Nebraska fan you know I don't think there's too much I don't think I'm going out too too far on a limb here to say that there's a whole heck of a lot of hope going into this season based on the first two seasons under Scott frost in in Husker land so I guess you could though if you want to look at a glass half empty half full half empty is man you really right now you just want to get some momentum going some confidence going into school and in this program you want to play you know two cupcakes or three cupcakes if you possibly can cincinnati is no is no cupcake whatsoever and they really haven't been at least for the last few years and so that is definite I don't care if it's at Memorial Stadium it's a solid program Cincinnati and so you really don't want to get off to a bad start against a group of five opponent in your own house glass has your glass I should say half-full is that you know what this might just be the type of win that if you can pull it off that could really vault you to a season as well but I just don't know if you're a Nebraska fan how much how much confidence you should have going into this season but I definitely think that one is difficult and then I believe is it what's Kawa sconce is that one of the ones that you mentioned Wisconsin's Appalachian Snapple ashen state well the Wisconsin against I believe aren't they playing let's see that's Rutgers I don't need to bring that up I'm not sure if that's this year when are they playing Notre Dame that is this year so that games that till early October so and it's at it's at Lambeau correct that's that's correct but yeah Appalachian State that they they have given they have given power five teams especially we really don't know anything about that well I didn't mean I was I can neither confirm or deny that Appalachian State is a dangerous opponent to begin with it was just it was not this year I believe it was two seasons ago where they took Penn State to the wire yeah in Happy Valley in Happy Valley as well actually and yeah exactly should have so they are no they are no in you know they've moved up from FCS since that happened what you just talked about that will remain nameless for now they've moved up to the FBS and they still they still play at a very high level so yeah I can see that one as being as being kind of a bit of a trap game but Wisconsin of all places it seems like they're always ready for those early season challenges so I'm not quite as worried about that as I would be for Nebraska Memphis as well that's a difficult that's a difficult to do Purdue has left us an air force Memphis and air force those are gonna be tricky games as well hats off to Purdue for played two pretty tough teams right out of the gate yeah I have no idea what occurred October 31st 2007 in the very first ever live event broadcast on the Big Ten Network I don't know what happened then hello darkness my old friend yeah I can't I can't even with that let me let me throw a stat at you as we get to the next one here that'll blow you away Ohio State has not lost two games in the regular season before November since 2011 that's that's almost a decade Aaron that's the last time they had two losses in a regular season before November and that was the year that Jim Tressel was fired for lying to the NCAA and Luke fickle the Cincinnati coach was the interim I bring that up is that good that's again as a Michigan fan I can neither confirm nor deny but unofficially I think I can say that's good now college football news though is saying they think that could be in danger this year with the road schedule that Ohio State's gonna play Ohio State is at Oregon the second week of the season Oregon is gonna be the the pac-10 favorite even without Justin Herbert there are pac-12 favorite their roster is it's far more talented than anybody else's and I still wouldn't be surprised if they were to land a quarterback in the transfer portal then they've got Michigan State and Penn State back-to-back on the road in the middle of October I don't know I don't know what are they seeing in Michigan State I'm still not sold on the pac-12 overall and I know that's I'm seeing a quick Lane Bowl yeah I'm seeing the quick lane Bowl for Michigan State yes for sure and yes I get I don't want this to be a lazy take all the pac-12 sucks cuz I think they were up a little bit this year overall you know that but good grief I just don't know what the overall state of the pac-12 including organ is and so I'm not like I'm not man it's gonna be the best team in the pac-12 yeah but but do I think whoever their first time quarterback is whether it's a transfer or a guy in the program do I think in week two they're gonna go out there and beat just in fields in Ohio State I don't I don't believe that and I know everybody wants to talk about you know Michigan State went out there when they were at their Zenith under Dantonio and lost Oregon ruled out Marcus Mariota the Heisman trophy-winning quarterback right so I don't I don't think it's quite the same thing I don't think there's much of a chance they lose at Michigan State at Penn State and I agree that could be a loss if it's a whiteout and it's gonna be their whiteout mark it down every year every other year it's Penn State or I'm sorry it's Ohio State or Michigan mm-hmm yeah because they alternate having them at home one of those games is always the whiteout so that's good to be the whiteout at Penn State this year and you know I've my we saw my team total Talent ratings the the initial ones for 2020 I've got Penn State right now a top-five roster in college football according to my rating so that's a loser bowl game but I don't think Michigan State is I could see it upset at Oregon I don't think that's yeah great atmosphere yeah it's still tough to play you're going out you're going out west that's I mean I asked Purdue last year early in the season yeah you don't ask any team that goes out west early in the season it always seems like you're in for a scare so all right so here are their big winners and losers from a scheduling standpoint winner will go back and forth on these winners and losers okay winner they say Michigan after going to Minnesota on October 17th the Wolverines get Purdue a week off Maryland at Rutgers and Indiana that's how you get healthy for the trip to Ohio State well first time I think Purdue is going to be the most underrated team in the Big Ten going into this season but I get what they're saying but I I am just convinced I'm never going to see Michigan defeat Ohio State again in my lifetime so I don't think it matters who we play the the before Ohio State I think we all know what the end results gonna be but your thoughts on whether Michigan is a scheduling well I mean I would ask you I would ask you as as a Michigan fan are you even interested in trying to handicap or trying to say this is the this is the atmosphere in which it would take four from Michigan to have a chance or do you are you just checked out on no I you're gonna see this on on Michigan podcast and and for me at Wolverine digest 11-game sees it's an 11-game season that game doesn't exist to me it's an 11-game season and I can't put myself through it again I've gone through 15 damn years of it the last to the absolute most embarrassing faceplant masculine zyv ever suffered as a fan of a sports team and so I just I can't put myself through it again I'm done well regardless then of that last game which shall remain nameless for now for these purposes because leave a lot of things nameless around here in this episode yeah I think you actually are in pretty good shape you're facing a Washington team right off the bat on the road yes I just got done saying that it's a difficult that's gonna be your bet that's gonna be your tough dude that's gonna be your toughest game in the first 11 games or the the the toughest game on your schedule on your 11 game schedule yes Penn State that's tough but at least that's at home same with Wisconsin as well you don't have to go to Camp Randall and play those guys this year so there's gonna be some tricky games in there but I think by far your toughest game out of those 10 is going to be Washington otherwise I think you're probably going to be favored - or your barring some some injury problems or just complete and total meltdown from from a you know from a team standpoint you're probably gonna be favored in most of those games in fact I think when they when we start getting the the early lines in May from Vegas I think Michigan will be favored in the first 11 games yeah is what I think what now whether that's deserved or not as a separate question but I think Michigan will be favored in those first 11 games now they say Penn State is a scheduling loser the Nittany Lions have to go to Michigan get a week off and then face Iowa after that it's at Indiana which I have right now as a top 25 roster and my team total talent ratings and at Nebraska for three road games in four weeks so they say Penn State scheduling loser agree or disagree or I would I would yeah I would probably agree with that for now but that's not that that's that's just a function of the division that they play in I wouldn't say you're a loser for having to play your crossover game at Nebraska an Iowa team that's trying to replace you know all-american and in a JEP Aneta and trying to replace their start that's you know that's gonna be a tough game it's always going to be a tough game but not super worried about that and I'm certainly not worried about Nebraska at this point so I I don't agree that with that that's a losing schedule it's just the division you play in how about that game week two at Virginia Tech how about the the big three most talented teams in the Big Ten Michigan or Ohio State Michigan and Penn State all going on the road to some of the toughest environments in the country Lane Stadium at Virginia Tech Husky Stadium in Seattle for Michigan we've already talked about Ohio State going outs and I mean that's that's something you don't see every season well three of them going on the road to do that one year ya know that's that's gonna be fun that's fun I think the best thing you can hope for is just some some good games but you know they're gonna be good atmospheres so that'll be fun but I think the most you can hope for is just is just some some good games and from a Big Ten standpoint of course you want all all three teams to win that can only help your conference they also give Michigan State as a scheduling winner hey they say hey that you're gonna have to play Michigan and Ohio State every year anyway so you might as well get them both at home and they do they play three home games in four weeks in October to kind of try to get some confidence I don't know man I mean the last two weeks Rutgers and Maryland I think they'll win those games but you know that that opening game Michigan State Northwestern I mean the rest of the season for whoever went loses that game and then you're at BYU BYU may be a top 25 team with everybody they've got coming back and you're and you're going out there after you open with a because you know since that's a conference game everything Michigan State all offseason is good the whole focus is gonna be on that game mm-hmm and then you have then you've got to play right after that you go on the road to play a whole bunch of 23 24 year old dudes you know I mean that I don't know man I don't think that then Miami which just a daddy Rat King the Houston transfer at quarterback then your accident then you're at Iowa and then you've got you're at Iowa Michigan Ohio State back to back the back in what world is college football news call in this schedule a winner I think this is the toughest damn schedule in the Big Ten good gravy I didn't think of it I didn't think through it that deeply when I saw it but holy crap playing Pat Fitzgerald right off the bat now at least you get that at home at least you get that at home but that's gonna be like to Northwestern head that's owned them over the years maybe like two oiled up sumo wrestlers in our in a mud pit I mean that's gonna be what that game is at least that's what I anticipate anyway although I think Michigan State did have pretty good success against them this last season they got denied against them yeah but still that's gonna be a tough game Fitzgerald is going to get to you know have a chip on his shoulder as he always does much to my chagrin and then yeah I mean at BYU going out west once again let's see Toledo's I mean I don't know I don't know what you think when I count their first at first nine games or first ten games I think nine of them would not shock you if they lost know if they lost Northwestern at home at BYU Miami at home at Iowa to Michigan Ohio State at Indiana to Minnesota or at Penn State are those like no way to get out of your losses no that's nine of their first ten games yeah that is that is brutal I could also see them you know I don't know what if dear King is everything that he's supposed to be with Miami it also wouldn't shock me too much to see them in the first you know five or six games be you know four in two or five and one either but I think it's much more likely that that they're probably gonna be looking at the one in five or two and four all right this hits close to home for you they say your hawk eyes are a scheduling loser right after dealing with Michigan State the hawk eyes have three road games in four weeks starting at Ohio State on October the 10th there's an even worse way to look at this the Ohio State games and Penn State games come at the end of a four-week run that starts with the rivalry game against Minnesota and then Michigan States what do you think is Iowa scheduling it loser and that's not even counting the Iowa State game at home at some point you got to think Matt Campbell's gonna win that game at some freakin point but you never know who knows again at least they've got Iowa State at home but that's a huge that's a huge game in the state of Iowa I don't think I need to remind anybody of that a lot of emotional energy in that one and then they've got to play Friday at Minnesota wow I didn't even see that till just now yeah they've got a short Minnesota Friday night short week against a rival against a guy pj fleck who i know really really really wants to beat Iowa as does the rest of the state because they hate Iowa literally and then yeah I mean Michigan State that's not gonna be a cakewalk and then at Ohio State and at Penn State back-to-back and then the bane of your existence Northwestern for that I mean that's just brutal and if I don't think at Illinois I mean I don't think that's a gimme at all if Wisconsin if I if I didn't know that Wisconsin lost as much as they did off the roster this year I would call my shot now and say the Iowa's gonna go five and seven and miserable game I think they'll be behind but it's just that schedule is brutal but I think that last game against Wisconsin I think they're gonna go into that five and six looking to get to a bowl game and that will obviously determine whether or not that happens I put their schedule back up there okay so you and I both like to dabble in the arts of sports investment sure okay so let's not look at it the way we look at it as fans or analysts but the way we think oddsmakers are going to see it mm-hmm alright and we throw out the Northern Iowa game because no mo that's a good Fe FCS program but you know there's not you can't always bet those kinds of games alright so let's go through this schedule week by week really quick and and say right now when that when the lines come out the preseason lines come out for all these games in May yep you know for sure Iowa is going to be favored for sure okay mm-hmm Iowa State at home Iowa's gonna be favored yeah I would say for sure will be much of one will be favored at Minnesota no no Northern Illinois at home yes Michigan State at home maybe by a point yeah I'm guessing like a field goal so yeah so that's two at Ohio State Oh nope at Penn State nope Northwestern at home probably bad a touchdown yeah okay so that's three at Illinois maybe maybe like one or two let's give them the maybe that's for Nebraska at home yes yep five I don't think it's a give me their favorite at Purdue I think it's gonna be a pickup at best but I would give Purdue the edge at this point and then Wisconsin at home I don't think they'll be favored at home against Wisconsin just based on the way the badge can keep in mind these are the lines in May yep okay I don't think they're favorite in that game so that's five that's five out of the 11 games against FBS teams yeah five five and one of those is a maybe correct yes but there was another maybe we left off so I can't cancel it yeah I mean it's like I was saying I think they are going to go into that last game five and six I guess I'd look at that in depth at their schedule and that I've walked away right away thinking wow that's that's difficult but yeah yeah that's that's a difficult schedule yeah they've got Rutgers as a winner how is that possible do we even need to look at that no I don't see it okay it's it's Rutgers yeah give Greg Schiano another year or two to recruit hit the transfer portal there there are a few these schedules where it's like I did not know Monmouth had a football team I didn't know southern Illinois had a football team southern Illinois plays Wisconsin I think and so I guess they're a winner because they get to play mom say this if with with with if Schiano can find a quarterback or develop one that's already on the roster I don't think it's crazy they could start 3a no I don't think it's crazy they could beat Syracuse I mean Maryland destroyed Syracuse and then couldn't win anything in the Big Ten this past season you have temple there yeah I mean temples two best players hit the transfer portal there are all conference defensive end and their starting quarterback are both in the transfer portal right now in fact I think they're all conference defensive end I think he's going to Miami to now that I think about it so I could see I don't think it's nuts that they could start three no I just don't know how many games they're winning after that do you see a big 10 win right now I don't maybe Maryland's maybe Maryland but that's on the road yeah but maybe yeah all right they have scheduling looser Purdue and it's the make-or-break second half of the schedule for the Boilermakers they're big on this three road games in four weeks thing and I don't blame them I think that's not a skin conducive to success either all right so at Illinois on October the 17th followed by at Michigan Northwestern at Minnesota and then right after that is Wisconsin Iowa and at Indiana I'll say this I'm I'm high my numbers are high on Purdue as a rebound team but when you want to talk about physicality and and you're gonna play Michigan northwestern you know Minnesota Wisconsin and Iowa those those are perennial I mean those are some of the most physical teams we have you're gonna play em week after week after week after week with no buys back in beat up your football team Aaron yeah and that's before you get to the rivalry game at the end of the year against Indiana yeah I will also say as well not high on Nebraska at all but them do you want to play your first game of the season if you're Purdue you you know if you're if you're a kind of a mid tier or a rising team do you want to play your first game of the season at Nebraska that's another interesting trend so we already noted that the three non-conference road games for the three you know national brands in the Big Ten okay Michigan Ohio State Penn State all going on the road how about we've got to lose early town match sort of games and we can week one in conference so you mentioned already Northwestern and Michigan State right and then this one is Nebraska and Purdue and I mean what's the if you if for the two teams that lose those games what's life like getting you're getting getting back up off the mat like if you're in Nebraska you know and you've got a Memphis team that was in the Cotton Bowl and returns it's starting quarterback and then you play a triple option team right after that yeah I was just gonna say the contrasting styles yeah is it's gonna be her key jerk and I mean you talk about the the physicality of the Big Ten scheduled there especially with Michigan northwestern Minnesota Wisconsin all in a row before finishing up at your rival I mean those first four games as well you know Nebraska no matter how bad they're being talked about I mean they're gonna have to listen to what we're saying all off see people like us are saying all out offseason so they're gonna have you know come out with their heads on fire and then Memphis Air Force Boston College and Boston College has traditionally been kind of a tough a tough out as well I don't know what they're looking like for this year they have a new coaching staff there but hey haffley or who was the Ohio State defensive coordinators you got to go on the road regardless and so it's yeah I would say that they're probably a loser at the very least they have a very very difficult schedule if you I can't remember who they hired for their defensive coordinator cuz they hired that they fired Nicole don't remember who the new DC is but whoever the new DC is it Purdue here's your first four games Scott Frost's Oregon style you know Chip Kelly style spread Memphis with an air raid air force with the triple option and well Boston College used to be a pro-style team I don't know what they'll be with the with the new coaching staff there but let's say they keep some of those tendencies your first four games are against completely totally different offensive schemes potentially yeah Morgan Freeman to the to the attempted extortion of Batman good luck yeah I I may have to reconsider whether I think Purdue's gonna be a surprise team or not now this last one I agree Nebraska as a scheduling loser I mean this is the kind of schedule that gets that either Scott frost is big 10 coach of the year or fired at the end of the season man all right so we've already mentioned they start off with that that home game against Purdue that just feels like it's a it's a must-win for both of those teams given the seasons they just had okay but remember how this this past year that they had that schedule at the end of the year you're like man I don't how many games I got a better better get off to a good start because look at the way their schedule ends right we thought that lasts easy up okay so that that game against Purdue they have to win that but let's say they win it you know you're gonna beat central Michigan at home you're gonna beat South Dakota State at home we mentioned the trap game against Cincinnati they'll have that circled okay look at what their schedule looks like at once we get past Rutgers at Ohio State Penn State at Iowa at Wisconsin Minnesota I think it's conceivable they don't win any of those games so they think I mean I I think it's possible in fact I think it I think one in four is the best-case scenario to close out the season there yeah yeah so it's another you better get off to a good start and your red and white spring game doesn't count as one of your wins if you want to get to a bowl game so you know they they they if they want to have some breathing room they better when that first game as you as you said but then they have to win I mean they have to go on a tear after that and that's no I mean even even FCS South Dakota State as a perennial playoff team it's a it's a third it's in the third week of the season so it's not like they can come right out and scare ya but they're not that bad either and you just Cincinnati we already mentioned so they got to win at least five out of the first six I would say to have a pretty good chance at going to a bowl game and given and I don't blame that fan base for where it's at mentally right now let's say we let's go back air into those two kind of survivor games week one of the season that our conference games you know and let's say northwestern beats Michigan State mm-hmm and Purdue beats Nebraska now put that schedule back up on the screen here for a second so if you're a Nebraska fan you lose that game to Purdue starting in that and unlike the northwestern Michigan State that's a divisional game okay yep so you start off oh and one in the league oh and one in the division you're now looking at bleep we've got Cincinnati the highest ranked group of five team mm-hmm bleep we've work then we got to go at Northwestern we just saw them beat Michigan State and then we still have to play that five-game stretch at the end of the season could you only can you imagine what Husker the Husker social media online community talk radio audience can you only where they will be if they lose that game against Purdue on the the first week of the season yikes it's it's not going to be pretty at all but fortunately for them for again they play that at home and so they you know they've got the crowd on their on their side obviously but good gravy yeah it's it's going to be a slog for some of these teams that are that are on the rise like Purdue that are trying to you know get back to where they were like Northwestern like Michigan State and then for for teams that are trying to actually make some sort of identity good gravy I mean that's that's gonna be a test right off the bat and fortunately it's only one game in so maybe you can rebound if you if you drop one early but yeah it's gonna be a really quick little OTT of these teams right off the bat we're taping this on January 29th right so I mean the season is still 200 days away but if I would have told you or any of you that are watching right now on youtube or listening to a podcast version on itunes etc if I'd have told any of you if I would have predicted when when Scott and I wouldn't have predicted this because I would have thought there's no chance but had I predicted when Scott Frost was hired Nebraska would even go to a bowl game his first three years because I think that schedule puts a bowl game in doubt again if I'd have predicted egos the first three years at a bowl game Aaron you would have thought what um unlikely very very unlikely the odds of that if I was putting again the Vegas odds I would have put that at maybe plus I would probably put it at seven to two you know plus 350 something like that that would be some long odds because you you expect there are at least gonna be some down years for other teams that you play every year that maybe you'd be able to sneak one by but it's just it's a testament unfortunately to the fact that Scott frost just has not established as of yet any sort of identity event program and so what do you hang your hat on I mean if we're trying to give at least I I am anyway and I know you probably are as well trying to give somewhat of a benefit of the doubt here to Nebraska we're going and trying to W&L this and we can't do we the the best we can do is what we just did because we don't really have anything to hang your hat hang our hats on as far as the identity identity of that program in the direction of that program and so it's going to have to they're gonna have to hit the reset button in some way this offseason will come back and it's time for our weekly game of would you rather next Bickerton is brought to you by michigan podcast if you like what you're hearing today and would like to support us head on over to patreon patreon.com slash michigan podcast where if you live somewhere where sports wagering is illegal you can find steve's picks for various games so far in basketball college basketball this year he's been on fire that's patreon.com slash michigan podcast you can get his game day pics which he posts almost every day now for just five dollars a month in the process you can say thank you for creating this podcast on youtube or via podcast wherever you listen patreon.com slash michigan podcast here it is our weekly game of would you rather we take turns putting each other on the spot Aaron this one is for you here on bigger ten would you rather be in terms of men's basketball Michigan State or Illinois the two teams tied right now for first place in the conference although there's like five teams and then one or one and a half games in the loss column but would you rather be Michigan State or Illinois looking at their second half Big Ten schedules this is an extremely good one because I looked at the I obviously looked at their remaining schedules and I would have to say Illinois by this much so they both have as of when we're taping this Tuesday afternoon January 29th and they both have 11 remaining games 8 for both teams 8 of those 11 games are either on the road or against ranked opponents and that's probably true for every team in the Big Ten that's definitely but Illinois has one more home game than Michigan State does so I'd probably have to take Illinois just on those merits but you know it could go it could go either way but as we've seen so far this near year now the last week the last week and a half or so there have been some key road wins her teams like Maryland going on the road Maryland just absolutely larceny in Bloomington Indiana shouldn't have never won that game and just stole it from the Hoosiers yeah so there's there have been some some tough on the road games from some of the you know up olan teams but you know Michigan State Illinois those are upper echelon teams so I think I'm gonna go with the team that has the more friendly schedule or at least friendly home schedule anyway next one is for you would you rather be in in general terms in college basketball would you rather be a team that relies on three-point shooting or who relies on its defense to compensate for a mediocre offense well I would have said before this season absolutely I'd rather be the team that relies on its 3-point shooting you wouldn't think moving the line back another couple of inches would make a difference but it has I mean I think across the country collectively three-point shooting accuracies down like 10 to 12 percent so right now I guess I would put it on I'd rather be a team that a defensive team that would compensate for it and and I think it's not just the moving it back a couple of inches is that it's been moved back a few times now you know it's kind of funny if you were to you'll watch the games when we first had the three-point shot I think was 1987 when it was a 19-9 and it almost looks like throughout they're shooting free-throws now compared to the the three-point shots now that are pretty close to NBA range depending on the part of the court that you're shooting it from so when I look at the way that teams aren't shooting it as well from three now I think I'd rather I'd rather be more of a defensive Club and I don't know that I would have said that in Prior seasons although the the two teams last year that were the final two teams standing in the NCAA tournament Virginia and Texas Tech were number one and number two on Ken pom and defensive efficiency I know because my Michigan Wolverines were in that top three with them all year last year and and my Michigan Wolverines got to the finals in the year before and they were top three and defensive efficiency so maybe this isn't maybe this has actually been a trend that's been going on for a while now this one's for you would you rather be on the college and I'm asking you this because you're a D now Gary Barda is on the college football playoff committee your former ad Bob Bulls be used to be the chair of the NCAA tournament selection committee so which of those jobs here in would you rather have would you rather be on the college football playoff committee or the NCAA tournament selection committee you know this one is also really tough this is a very good one and I would I would like to be on the NCAA selection committee but it seems like most years you know there's always gonna be squabbling but most years it's like you know what there's 68 freaking teams that make this in there and you want to squabble about four or five okay whatever when those teams that are never winning it either no no no so that's so that is to say they do a pretty good job with the seeding I think for the most part and most of your job as far as who gets the automatic bids or a good chunk of your job is already done for you anyway it's just depends on where you want to put those teams that win their conference tournaments as far as the as far as the college football playoff committee though I would rather be on that just agree just to fix it just to I agree because we also don't know what what here's why I'd want to be on it what I want to know what the hell's the criteria yeah there's a lot of transparency actually with the NCAA tournament selection committee but when it comes to college we'll play off the committee we don't really know really truly in detail what they're looking at so I'd like to be on that committee is to find out when you yeah and to and at you know at least try to enforce or enact some criteria upon the other members instead of just it seems like it's just horse-trading all the time and maybe it's not but that's just what it seems like one year it's the eye test next year it's you know this year next week yeah so there's just no rhyme or reason whatsoever next one is for you if you're a team like Minnesota now this is college football Minnesota Purdue or Nebraska kind of either rising on the rise or looking to kind of put your foot down somewhere would you rather have one or two marquee non-conference games or play three cupcakes I think certainly for Purdue and Nebraska you've got a bank wins Minnesota is is if they if they have another season remotely close like this fall like what they did in 2019 then I think they can start because that's going to improve recruiting as well I think then they can start reasonably saying hey we kind of want to be a team that can contend for like a new year six at large birth you know and and to do that means you've got to go ten and to like like they did this past season but you've got to play better teams in the non-conference than they did cuz now you're going to now you're going up against you're trying to be one of the top twelve thirteen teams in the country right right so I think Minnesota is still in the bank wins mode but might be a season away from from from contemplating this question I don't think Nebraska and Purdue are are there yet I think they need to they need to bank some wins they've especially Nebraska I mean Jeff Brohm took over you know Purdue was as down of a program as we've seen in the last decade in the Big Ten not named Rutgers and he took him to back-to-back bowl games his first two years so he I mean he's got some legitimacy there I mean frost is fighting for credibility right now so I would say Nebraska definitely needs to Bank wins I still think that's where Purdue in Minnesota are as well but Minnesota might be a season away from thinking a little bit loftier we'll come back and have our Twitter weekly Twitter poll question and results as well as this week's question of the week to wrap things up here in a moment bigger ten is also brought to you by a wolverine digest from Sports Illustrated you can find that at wolverine digest comm for all of you michigan fans you can find a daily rundown of all the hottest topics from basketball and football to recruiting and much much more that's wolverine digest comma part of Sports Illustrated all right back here I'm bigger ten Aaron here was this week's Twitter poll and results Illinois Michigan State are currently tied for first place in the big ten which do you think is more likely to win the league when it's all said and done not a lot of respect for the poor old Illini then again have you been paying attention to Big Ten basketball the last 20 years I can't blame it for this pick yeah but eighty-eight percent think they'd rather be they think it's more likely Michigan State ends up winning the league when it's all said and done over Illinois I think Michigan states the right answer - yep but I are you surprised Illinois style at least get a little more love than that no but just to be consistent with with what I said earlier about which schedule I'd rather have I'd rather be I'd still rather be Illinois so I would have to say Illinois's is who I would pick right now to come out on top of the league just based on their schedule but I really can't argue with just saying Michigan State for the reason for just history I need to I need to see it to believe it when Michigan State has a team like they are like they do and Tom Izzo is still in East Lansing I really can't argue against picking them to win it all once again this week's question of the week comes from James Powell the third he says I like your team total talent ratings but they don't account for things like positional gaps on a roster James that's that's a good analysis keep in mind it's not a real power rating it's a rating it's a potential rating right so those will be part of the framework I use when I do my power ratings this spring and summer to do my college football preview so we're not necessarily looking at those to say here's where I think here's how I think team a ought to be favored over team B we're looking at those just to look at team a to see how good could team a potentially be looking at the material on its roster so it's it's not the power rating in and of itself it's just a metric I created to help me make better power ratings but ultimately in those power ratings I can account for things like hey if a team's got a lot of talented offensive line but not defensive line you know you got to have player up the horses on up front on both that on both sides of that so that's a good question on your part James hey everybody thanks for tuning in here this week on bigger ten don't forget like rate review subscribe weather regardless of whether it's YouTube iTunes at whatever is available the more of those that you guys do for us the more that helps us spread the word about what we're doing here at bigger ten don't forget to follow us on Twitter at bigger ten all week long as well for Erin I'm Steve days we'll be back again at it next week here on bigger ten you [Music]