Final Social Security 2025 COLA Prediction! Live!

Published: Sep 10, 2024 Duration: 00:06:02 Category: News & Politics

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all right it is 7:30 central 8:30 Eastern CPI has been released let's go and take a look at that to see what's going on with the Social Security Cola for 2025 so let me share my screen I'm looking at this live with you first time here interesting um CPI has been trending down and so I change up my formula how we go about it uh to uh someone account for that using a trend line from this year all right here we are we got the new CPI let's see here increase 2% seasonally adjusted that was expected 2.5% over the last 12 months before seasonal adjustment that's just slightly below the expectation of course this is CPI U we want to get down all the way to CPI W plug it into the amount increase 2.5% to oh that's CPI again here are CPI W 30864 that doesn't uh affect us too much so we plug it into the formula so let us go and look at the projection here now I've been um projecting it a little bit uh 309.28 with um the uh projections that are out there where CPI might go I've got this top chart here kind of showing interesting enough at least last year pardon me at least last year we had um we had CPI going down towards the end of the year so it's tough to predict and picking back up and then slowing down again seems like it slows down uh in the summertime on there so I did a uh formula uh let's see if we can um I'm going to reset this make sure we have the data all perfectly in there that's understanding where it's at okay so we got the formula on there and let's project what next year is going to be uh next month rather because uh CPI for Cola is based on the average of the three months in the quarter so quarter three of last year to quarter three of this year all right uh let's see fancy formula let's trying to get us uh plugged in we get to the uh the log it's logarithmic there we go all right so we're projecting a 30959 for next month so let's look at the average here for all right so that's July August 9th's average of 30991 two is what the uh projection is let's see we're doing the math live because I wanted to get to it uh as quick as we could let's take that number divide it out minus one okay right around three it's rounding up to three but uh we get down 2.55 so interesting could be 26 could be 25 uh it's trending down I'm going to go out a Lin and say maybe uh 2.55 you can kind of see how things are flattening out maybe that will uh continue uh so let's go with the 2.5 that's my projection for next year Social Security Cola uh just based off the data uh got to say something real quick I think a lot of people in the comments are suggesting that the government is lowering uh CPI W on purpose just to lower the Social Security Cola uh I I would disagree but let's just pretend that's the case uh this is just a uh a numerator over a denominator uh maybe they could do it maybe they could do it only once that would help them right because then the next year the denominator is lower uh that makes it easier to have a higher uh Social Security Cola the next year round so if uh if you believe that the government is artificially lowering inflation just to have the Social Security Cola you know what I I disagree but let's just not agree on that not disagree right now uh that could happen once because this year's number goes into next year next year's number goes into the following year and I'm guessing uh they're not quite interested if U there's some conspiracy of lowering Cola artificially from three to 2.5 uh if they were ever going to do that they would have done that a couple years ago uh when Cola was up around 9% um and that gets baked in to the numbers because it's all just last year's number uh and this year's number going into it so there you go I'm going to say 2.5 where does it round out to 2.5 48 so it rounds to 2.5 let's go with that uh as a projection for next year Social Security Cola make sure to subscribe to my retirement revealed uh podcast on your podcast players but the Mr retirement YouTube channel uh will get you live next year next month next that's coming up next month o October uh is when I think it's the 10th hey let's find that out I've got on my calendar but uh CPI news release schedule should have that memorized it's the most important Social Security day of the year uh I had a right yep I did have memorize October 10th I'll see you October 10th subscribe to the Mr retirement Channel I'll see you October 10th uh live when we go through the uh the official numbers the actual official numbers talk to you soon

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