Comparing Billy Napier and Dan Mullen recruiting | Florida Gators Recruiting

this is a preview of the latest episode of Gator's breakdown link to the full episode is in the description comparing uh Billy Napier and Dan Mullen in the recruiting hey look number say it's not that different uh and I hear you will hear you as well look we know there's reasons why we know there's different reasons we know this is a whole different world of college football recruiting hey Billy Napier to spoke on it today as well we know all that but just looking at the numbers that's all we can go by right now and that's what we will go by uh just with the Declaration uh at least from my side yes I we I know there's some reasons out there and it is different with nio in the transfer portal and all that stuff but on Saturdays that's not really going to matter all that much so we have to look at you know what the talent is uh coming into the University of Florida the comparisons of of one billion eight years recruiting so far uh to the guy who replaces Dan Mullen yeah it was interesting I had said something just sort of depressed after uh after rashada left that this was a Dan Mullen class that a bunch of people took me a task for it and I was like wow it's not quite a Dan Mullen class but what about the first two years if you start looking those first two years is the Dan Mall in class turns out Dan Mullen actually did a better job of recruiting his first two years than the bill Napier has actually the uh the Napier rankings should be up to 90.46 now uh because they did readjust some of the uh some of the commits and but and anyway I mean look Napier wins in 24 7 rank he wins in national rank he wins in conference rank he wins in top 100 players eight to four he wins in players between ranks between 100 to 300 five stars they had the same Mullen had more commits and so then obviously the natural criticism as well there were a bunch of guys who didn't qualify and a bunch of guys who left early and all that sort of stuff so then I took out the one black Davey ham and wardrick Wilson Jalen Jones and Chris Steele from that 2019 class and Mullen still wins on average player rating National Rec conference wreck top 100s they actually tie for players 101 to 300 and then Mullen just had one less commit so what this really says is a billionaire can't have any attrition because if he does number are going to get really really tight it says that look Dan Mullen used the transfer portal too I mean you think about van Jefferson thinking about Trayvon Grimes you think about Jonathan Bernard you think about Adam Schuler um you know and even the last year he was there the the defensive tackles that they brought in so you know look I mean Napier or Mullen actually hit on the transfer report when you think about I mean Travon Grimes was productive early on yeah even though he was uh uh you know undrafted free agent van Jefferson was a second round draft pick Adam Schuler was very productive John granard was a third round draft pick Brenton Cox probably gonna be a fifth round draft pick um so and and was was a contributor for Florida not a star but a contributor so you know Mullen had quite a bit of success in the transfer portal as well so that's really what we got to be thinking about right I mean obviously Osiris Torrance is going to be a first round selection we'll see what happens with Montreal Johnson um you know obviously the guys we've all talked about bazooka and Banks and and Goodwin and those sorts of guys we'll see what comes out of those guys they bring in the transfer portal but on a on a numbers basis you know the criticism of Mullen was yeah well he boosted up all of his conference rankings and his player rankings and things like that by having guys who didn't qualify one it doesn't really change his 24 7 rank all that much and even if you subtract the Five Guys from that class who who didn't make it from that 2019 class who never made it to fall fall practice you're still looking at something where Mullen has more total talent in the door than Billy Napier did this it is what it is man like we can talk about evaluations and you know I hope that Billy Napier is a better Talent evaluator than Dan Mullen go ahead will but what if you're going to go a lot further go ahead stop there though because I do want to that's the next point I was going to make so go ahead well I I was just going to say you could you can make that point but on a raw numbers basis the the talent level after after the first two years like Napier's are distributed differently he had a worse transition class than a better uh better bump class Mullen had basically the same ratings two years in a row but you're you're in the same place regardless so let's go through the 18 and 19 classes will that's uh we did that on Gettys rate down plus not long ago and it was it had a lot of fun with it um 19 not great at all when you throw in the attrition and um you know who's contributed uh there for for uh for those classes I'm trying to get this graphic down um I forgot where I was at for a second there we go um so going to the 18 class it was led by one Jacob Copeland okay didn't finish his career at Florida serviceable player at University of Florida I reached a garage really good offensive lineman there for the Gators so that was the second ranked player in 18 and Dan Mullins transition class his first class uh the third rating player in that class will one Emery Jones I did not live up to the um recruiting profile for him ends up transferring to Arizona State uh and then the fourth ranked player in that class never played it down for Florida one wide receiver Justin Watkins um late grabbed there by Dan Mullen uh to put in that 18 class never played uh down for Florida um let you know just how wrong they can be sometimes the fifth rate player not class one Kyle Pitts it's a big year of course uh and a lot of the groundwork you know this is one of those ones that the transition class the big difference here is Dan bullet didn't go all all nuke on the class like Billy April did when he'd come in and basically nuke the Dan mullen's work uh and then built the club built a lot of the class uh from from the ground up and then you know building or Dan Mullen comes in a lot of the work done by one Jim McElwain not for a lot of these players uh after Kyle Pitts and Mario Bernie uh played every year in his gator career had a really good senior year uh to go out the right way uh trading was in that class as well um contributor for all those years as well but didn't really live up to the potential Damien Pierce uh big time should have been involved more um no fault of his everyday I'm only just not using him enough Lucas Kroll uh was the next guy in line it's a big play for the Gators in uh 2018. then Andrew field never did much for Florida linebacker David Reese transferred out this past year for the Gators didn't do much Malik Langham didn't do much for the Gators there I was in Clement didn't do much Noah Banks nope John Huggins nope Chris black nope unfortunately Randy Russell not a contributor either for from the 2018 class Dante Zanders moved around a whole bit he was in that 2018 class as well playing tight end this past year for the Gators Griffin McDowell not much uh then the last player but only because he was a kicker will cannot test the value here of one kicker Evan McPherson uh there for the Gators hey he's a better Pro than he was a gator though so he was a good player for Florida at least at least he won't get in trouble for celebrating during the halftime show this year during the Super Bowl but there's the 2018 class that the top of it Copeland garage um um you had Jimmy Jones Justin Watkins Kyle Pitts Amari Bernie trading Damien Pierce that's the top of the class and then after that so that's one two three four five six seven eight the top eight besides Justin Watkins had some big big roles at Florida so eight guys in that in that 2018 class nine if you count McPherson you know that you'd say good players or major contributors for the Gators yeah I mean the 18 class actually for Dan Mullen isn't the reason he got fired correct 19 classes he got fired and honestly you you only need to look at the Blue Chips to understand why why why that is so like you mentioned out of the out of the first one two three four five six seven eight guys in that 2018 class seven of them wound up starting significant games yeah one of them turned into a star I would almost call garage a star because he started almost 30 games I will completely agree with you and then Watkins washes out right so if we look at the 2022 Blue Chips in the transition class for Napier now you've got Kamari Wilson Shamar James who started significant already I think you can highlight him yeah McClellan who was a backup etn who was a backup kind of in the same same mold as pierced so we'll see where that goes then you got Devin Moore who got injured but was playing relatively early Tony Livingston and Jamari Lyons who didn't really play at all so in Livingston now counts in this class by the way the 23 class however you know that works so yeah so so the point is is that you look at that and there were only seven or eight blue chips so one two three four five six seven Blue Chips in that 2022 class so in order to replicate what what Mullen got out of that 2018 class he's not gonna be able to miss on any of those guys or somebody down below that is going to have to step into a role that you may not have expected and that we haven't seen based on the freshman year at this point doesn't mean it can't happen just means that you know hasn't happened yet I think it's the same thing you look at that 2019 class obviously Chris Steele is the one that you go oh what a mess kind of reminds you of the Jaden rashados yeah you got Kyrie Alum who turned into a star right and here's where it starts to get bad for Mullen Chris Bogle not a whole lot right back up at best Tyrone Hopper played starter minutes but transferred out before we really made a difference key on zipper has sort of been a career backup diabate played starters minutes but transfers out and and seemed out of place Lloyd Sumrall still on the roster hasn't really played all that much naquan right he transferred out oh he transferred out so naquan right um you know still uh you know obviously he's transferred as well but he was a starter at some point Jalen Humphries didn't really contribute that much Michael tarquin contributed some at tackle but was never like a stalwart then you got Jalen Jones who never made it to to fall practice you got Jade on Hill who obviously the the injury has has set him back a little bit but played starters and then William harad um who again back up on the offensive line so I've got one star and one two three four five starters out of that 2019 class so so Mullen got more stars and more starters out of his 18 classes than he did his 19 class that bomb class that's why things fell apart last year and that and the quarterback play obviously because he couldn't get what he needed out of Richardson and out of Emory Jones in in 2021. so look yeah and mostly the hit on the three stars either I mean Chester Kimbrough not a contributor Deontay Mark's not a contributor Riley Sam is not a contributor Jamarcus Weston has it done much Kingsley the glocken one of the best ones so far does I appear no non-contributor Tripp Whittemore and somewhat contributor but now he ends up transferring out of the program reason why a lot of starts the last few years they're at offensive line so you know only a couple three stars that played above their level I'd say I'd say in Ethan white and um uh and you know if you and Kingsley uh of course they're starting along the offensive line and then as we said the attrition of you know the one black ends up in the ends up a gator but not in the 2019 class uh the Ave Hammond nope wardrobe Wilson nope I didn't even uh come out uh you know didn't even show up uh for a play uh for Florida so yeah it's the 2019 class that really that really did you man so here here's if you want to know whether Napier's a better evaluator and whether his methods work better this is the exercise right two years from now that so Mullen had 13 starters out of his 26 Blue Chips three of those guys were stars you aren't getting anywhere in the SEC with three stars like three guys who turn into elite players into recruiting classes just isn't going to be good enough three all SEC players is going to get you middle of the pack performance and that's what it's going to get you you need Bill Bill Sykes are a really nice article for reading reaction about a year ago talking about needing about eight all SEC players on your roster in order to compete for the SEC Championship so that's what needs to happen right now Napier has 24 total Blue Chips in his first two in his first two classes but only seven in that first class so he's got 17 here in the second class he's going to need a hit rate of more than 13 really to say he's a better evaluator than the Napier to be starters a couple years from now and he needs more than three stars and that's gonna be the question right does Kelby Collins turn into a star does Aiden Mizell turned into a star does jakeem Jackson turn into a star does will Norman turned into a star and if he just has a bunch of good starters Florida will win a bunch of games but they're not going to win the SEC and and that's the story of of this recruiting class it's my evaluation of this recruiting class it's it's why it bothers me that instead of the 13th and 14th spot is I think there's going to be a lot of good starters Who come out of this class I'm highly doubtful that they're going to get more than four or five all SEC guys out of this even if Napier is an unbelievable evaluator and 4S for all SEC guys in the season is going to be a 10 win sort of like a Tennessee season from last year where we get excited but we don't actually win anything at the end of the day and and you know that's not necessarily what we signed up for yeah I'll take that one in the next two years though and then then and then you better use it as a launching Point well so again if you get four stars out of these two classes and DJ lagway turns into an absolute stud a quarterback and Miles Graham comes in and it's just hitting people like crazy at the linebacker position and you add three or four more guys of that ilk in the 2024 class then certainly you can start to uh start to build into that so look I'm not ready to give up on Billy Napier but I think we have to be honest about where we are well we are exactly you can't get out of the woods even if you have a map if you don't if you don't know where you are on the map and so all this is is looking at the rankings and say this is where we are on the map now you know what's the route out well the route out is they're going to have to convert a lot of these guys into either really really solid starters I mean look if they end up with 20 of their 24 Blue Chips being starters well now you add a couple of elite guys from the 2024 class and and the team is ready to compete for an SEC Championship but you're gonna have to hit an inordinate rate at least compared to your predecessor in order to get that done and that's just the reality what more Gators breakdown join Gators breakdown plus starting at three dollars a month get access to Unique episodes plus a Blog chat room giveaways shout outs and more Gators breakdown plus is furthering the interaction with fans and listeners like you head to Gators breakdowns.supportingcast.fm to join Gators breakdown plus today