Pre season polls and game predictions | Hawaii Football Now – Episode 99

[Music] all right how's it going everybody we welcome you to episode 99 that's right 99 here on for football now Jordan hel Hunter Hughes with you here for another week we actually got a lot to talk about this week Mountain West media days are underway in Vegas Hunter and I were not shipped off to Vegas uh but we've been paying attention and we got a lot to get to uh including some of the preseason poll discussion uh some of the pre-season picks uh players of the year uh offense defensive teams uh a familiar name in fact being chosen as the preseason offensive player of the year uh for the Mountain West Conference uh but first off we want to thank Spectre mobile and Hawai USA Federal Credit Union for sponsoring this podcast and we got to thank our guy back in action jiren kashiwa for producing this podcast shout out to our normal producer Jonathan s Vador who is actually up in Vegas on some ESPN Honolulu Duty helping out with a lot of the content up there you'll see a lot of his work um some of our colleagues John bener Josh baseko are up there as well you will catch them got to listen to an interview they had with Craig Angelus a little bit earlier this morning as we record this Wednesday morning at 700 a.m. July 19th set to release this as usual on Thursday uh of every week which will be July 20th this coming week before we dive into it for our opening drive did want to mention season uh football season tickets are on sale including um and this came out on Monday so ideally this will be old news uh but perhaps there are some tickets left uh one of the promotions that the University of Hawaii is doing is if you buy a season ticket you get two free cakey season tickets that's for kids 13 or younger uh up to a thousand so up to a thousand kiky tickets uh obviously with the expanded capacity that that allows uh I like this I like getting the kids involved I think it's a great promotion uh and uh you know the Hope obviously is to have that place basically sold out for all the games right it's 177,000 seats or so um and getting it to a point where I think you know bringing in the next generation of fan is obviously important thing for this pro football program and this coaching staff so if you haven't already done so uh basically just go to the Hawaii Athletics website you can get all your ticket information there um you can find out about the availability of some of these Kakey uh season ticket packages as well uh great win-win I think for everybody uh and hopefully uh we see a lot of those old and new Hawaii football fans out there um and uh hopefully we get to see you down at the fields uh c will be there just about every week I will be and uh on a day like today uh with this tropical storm inbound I'd be hiding under the uh the camera Booth over on the side um but uh yeah on the re uh if you can make it down we would love to see you it's uh each year it seems like it's a new environment um the first year it was the first time we were down on TC Ching um didn't really know what to expect we were just kind of breaking out of coid around that time and then uh year two comes in and um more expansion to some of the um uh the stands at that point and uh brought in some uh some vendors and some food trucks right down on the track um and now I believe we're in we're in year three now of being down at CC Ching um athletic complex with it it looks like a proper Stadium now Jordan with a full wraparound bleacher setup on uh on the maai East and West End zones and uh yeah if we can get that place rocking it's going to be a lot of fun I I I I'm with you I think it'll make for a a great atmosphere um in terms of you know the intimacy of it all I think I said 177,000 eventually they want to get there what what is this season I think it's like 153 right um is the number four this season as as they continuously kind of work on that um we saw uh some video of the board the video board up and running uh operational uh so apparently they got the the electrical figured out so that's a great sign as well that'll improve the uh the game day experience so again go ahead check that out so again basically just go to the Hawaii Athletics website and they got all the information for you there all right a lot to get to in our game time portion of this podcast but first I want to remind you that Hawaii football now is brought to you by Hawai USA Federal Credit Union as ha's largest Credit Union they are committed to serving individuals and businesses through its 14 branch locations Statewide and convenient convenient digital banking services as a leader in providing support for the island so why USA is committed to strengthening Hawaii's Financial wellness and sharing successes with members local businesses and the greater community visit Hawaii USA fcu.com all right game time here on episode 99 one away from the big centry Mark for us uh 99 straight weeks here on the Pod uh Jordan Hunter with you and Hunter Mountain West media days gives us a great opportunity uh to dive into some of the preseason selections uh we had kind of put this um in the uh in the queue uh over the last month or so leading up to trying to basically go through the exercise right uh pick how many wins and losses we maybe see on the University of Hawaii schedule how that maybe Compares uh to some of the other preseason prognosticators out there from some of the big Publications on down um over at Circa in Las Vegas is where they're holding the media days uh pre-season poll and all Mountain West preseason teams released early this morning uh for us they were already out by the time I woke up uh you know a little before six o'clock this morning Hawaii F picked to finish 10th in the pre-season poll again this is a media Poll for the Mountain West it's the official Mountain West Conference preseason selections uh and they officially picked to finish 10th um in the poll we'll get into maybe a little bit more of the breakdown there um for reference like fi steel had haai tied for 11th uh basically tied for last place so this this isn't a huge surprise um the one Hawaii selection amongst the preseason um All Conference teams Corner cam Stone uh obviously the Wyoming transfer uh making the all Mountain West defensive team just one team released they didn't go first team second team or anything like that and again for reference that was basically the same thing for Phil still he was the Lone first team selection there and so Hunter before we get into some of the other news notes uh around the preseason selections any initial reaction to the fact that Hawaii picked to finish 10th uh or camstone being the uh the only University of ha performer pick to the preseason teams yeah we've got a v a ton of upside for our football team right now with everything going on in recruiting for us um we we've got three star um guys giving us verbal commitments to come and stay and play in Hawaii um that is still yet to be seen um we're we're not quite there on um where our team immediately is right now and so I still think we're about one season away from seeing um a little bit more respect if you will on preseason polls for um the talent of The rosters that are um incumbent but we're not quite there yet and so um although I don't have our schedule um finishing you know around 10th or 11th in the Mountain West I can see I can see the fairness um a lot of these guys base their um their preseason poll off of what happened last year and let's not forget Hawai only won three games last year so with that in mind I a lot of people um outside of this podcast are not Hawaii homers Jordan and so uh people will keep it realistic uh as if it's their job because it is and um yeah so as much as that's a bummer whatever and I know our team the guys just put that on their shoulder as hey let's go out there and prove them wrong so um yeah that that's kind of where I'm at there's there's a lot of time still in front of us and um it's it's going to take time for this recruiting wheel to really start to translate into into wins on our schedule yeah I think it's fair like look Hawaii had the second worst conference I mean a second worst record in the conference last year two and six right and and this is based on finish within conference right this doesn't take into account uh non-conference games or anything like that and obviously it's a little different this year first year that the Mountain West has gone away from divisions uh since they went up to 12 teams and so you know it's it's an unbalanced schedule in that sense but for for a team that has a lot of unknowns and and as you pointed out Hunter you know the the preseason polls are all about familiarity they're all about known Commodities and so you look at the preseason poll you look at the the preseason you know Allstar selections if you will a lot of these are are are dudes that have already made a name fors or teams that have finished well last year or historically have finished well um and and on the bottom half of the conference in the preseason poll it's teams that that did the opposite and so yeah there's there's no surprise here and and for the University of Hawaii they replace a lot on the offensive line uh it was a receiving core that didn't put up great numbers last year but I think should be healthier and better this year um you lose your leading rusher on offense and dedri Parson right defensively uh against the run it was pretty terrible like it wasn't good it got better as the season went on and and we well chronicled that right here on the podcast last year but if you just look at the raw numbers like it's not very good uh the defensive backfield I think once again lines up to be one of the strengths of this team especially with the addition of again known commodity in camstone right what he did at Wyoming not necessarily what he did at Hawaii and I think is being recognized as such uh but again you've got a a brand new defensive uh coaching staff in terms of the defensive backfield right you got a new corners coach new safeties coach back there those guys could be great but we don't know yet you know and and uh a linebacking core that that loses pane pavi uh gets Isaiah Tua back um and and has Logan Taylor who was amongst the most prolific tacklers in the country in the back half of the season but will now be asked to to play an even bigger role and do that for 13 years right so yeah look I I I don't think it's it's a terrible insult based on last season uh for the University of haai to be picked where they're picked um and to have just one selection on you know the Mountain West uh preseason teams uh but as you point out I think it leaves a lot of room for growth uh just kind of going through the numbers Boise state is the selection um at the top of the preseason poll they got 28 of the 37 first place votes uh Air Force picked to finish second Fresno third San Diego State fourth San Jose State fifth Wyoming 6th and then the bottom half Colorado State 7even Utah State 8 UNLV 9 n Hawaii as we mentioned 10 Nevada at 11 and New Mexico who went 0 and8 in conference last year picked to finish 12th um interestingly enough Boise we mentioned 28 of the first place votes Air Force got two Fresno got five San Diego State got one and UNLV got one even though they finished ninth in the poll not sure if somebody's just uh you know really confident and Barry Odum and the new staff there I do think you know he's going to be a lot better um I think what the previous coaching staff had done was improve the talent of that team and I think what they've got coming in including brenon Maran remember as the offensive coordinator former University ofi assisting coach there um preseason players of the year uh you've got Jack Browning kicker for San Diego State as the preseason special teams player of the year on the defensive side you've got Easton Gibbs linebacker for Wyoming where uh I think they just grow middle linebackers on trees uh in laramy because they just they just got dudes uh that can tackle ball carers uh Eon gbes a preseason defensive player and we mentioned a familiar name uh chevin Cordo is the preseason offensive player of the year which um you know stoked for him I think it's well-deserving obviously with the likes of J Kaner and some of these other um you know longtime stalwarts in the conference moving on uh I think you know chevin who's been around for a while and has had some really good years including there up at San Jose State um very deserving and uh you know but also also a little uh little sore spot for Hawaii fans right it's like damn that guy that guy used to play for Hawaii um but now going into what is this now his third year um second year second year up at uh San Jose State on the same note uh Darius muel named to the um First Team all Pack 12 preon saw again another guy that uh would still be rocking the green and the white for us um so man we would have had a squad um coming into those guys senior year this season but uh Hey the past is the past we're moving forward but uh yeah we're we're definitely happy for him just um hope he doesn't have one of those um Crazy alltime Games whenever he comes back home in uh in October yeah October 28th right Saturday October 28th San Jose State coming to town uh and we'll go through the schedule here in just a second one other big note out of uh the early portion of media days this morning Up in Vegas um and and the commissioner also confirming this of the conference but uh reports were uh P was the one I saw that the the Mountain West and San Diego State have um gotten back together they are they're going steady uh but basically saying that uh San Diego State uh uh was informed by the Mountain West that they're a member in good standing with the conference uh that includes releasing the $6.6 million um dispersement that all the other schools got at the start of the new fiscal year uh that had been withheld from San Diego State right we talked about this a couple of podcasts ago the the conference was withholding that money used it as the first installment of an exit fee apparently everybody has gotten on the same page the mount West is good um you've got the San Diego State athletic director um I guess coming to an agreement and and everything will be all fine and dandy there um Sano State apparently will be charged a small fee for the mountain West's uh legal services so as of now um the drama is put to bed kind of interesting um you know shout out to our guy Jonathan up there uh filling Us in on some of the press conference details and and Craig Angelus kind of talked about this as well with his interview um on the uh the morning show for us on the sports animals uh that they didn't really say much they just said that San dieo stays back it's all good we're not saying anything else uh so kind of interesting there not a whole lot of elaboration on the uh the drama that went on behind the scenes but uh as of now San Diego State at home in the Mountain West uh and apparently nothing to see here yeah Gloria Navar is basically pulling a Marshon Lynch saying uh I'm just here so I won't get fined um at this is actually surprising to me Jordan because the deadline for the Mountain West to um make a decision like officially was on Monday and yet they waited until yesterday which was like the eve before Mountain West uh media days so to me I'm like if if you prolong this and you're kind of playing this weird hard ball game with them I would I would was really hoping that she would I don't know like discuss it a little bit more uh uh in her statement of you know of and about the Mountain West you know utilizing this as an opportunity to almost set a precedent for other schools on if you consider conference realignment this is this is what uh is going to be expected but uh no they're kind of uh already just moving on letting bygones be bygones and honestly a conference that doesn't really ever have much drama this was our chance to kind of Li our chops a little bit and be like hey uh what do you gotta say right here but she um she's not swinging at that pitch Jordan yeah it I I they have for the most part kept this um out of the media I guess right the the whole time this is unfolded it's just been via letters like sent back and forth but neither San Diego State nor the conference had really spoken to the media until today about this whole thing at least on the record and so you know I guess from that standpoint they've they've kind of kept the dirty laundry inhouse um but at the end of the day they're they're they're not going to disclose anything at least not yet now San Diego State leaves the conference which I think everybody assumes event should leave in some form or fashion will probably happen then maybe we'll get a little bit of the dirt uh but as of right now they're playing nice and San Diego State back in the fold full-time in good standing for the foreseeable future we'll see how that long that future lasts uh with that all right so Hawai pick to finish bottom bottom third bottom 25% of the conference basically wherever you look I don't think a a terrible insult there um more motivation at the end of the day um because these preseason polls and selections mean absolutely nothing when it comes down to it but it's great because it gives you know podcasts like us a lot of banter to talk about all right let's get into it Hunter let's go through the exercise we'll see how far we get maybe we'll take a break in the middle here um as you look at this University of Hawaii Squad um how we see each of the 13 games playing out I guess I I I I think we can start here um the Vegas win total for the University of ha is three and a half pretty low for 13 game schedule so if you think they're going to they're going to win four more games go ahead bet that over um if you uh if you got some friends Up in Vegas maybe from out in West media days uh not necessarily media friends but uh you know just friends who are in town um and so that's the Vegas win total pretty low um they went three and 10 last year so it's not again not a surprise um if you want to look at ESPN analytics if you basically look at the uh like the football the fbii thing they use right that gives a percentage prediction of every single game if you look at all 13 games what you uh projected to win five of those and lose eight of those uh but the interesting thing with that is uh if you just look at games like prognosticated between 40 and 60% either way uh Hawaii has four of those games uh including two of the games where it's like 5050 it's basically 50/50 and we'll go through that and and give you a breakdown of them all so let's start with the uh the first five games right the non-conference Slate um it'll be huge to see where Hawaii's at kind of setting themsel up for the last eight games which are all Mountain West Conference uh contests and that'll get going obviously now about five weeks away um August 26th in Nashville against Vanderbilts um that'll be on the SEC network Vanderbilt last year went five- seven respectable uh for Vandy two and six in the SEC um ESPN analytics gives Hawaii a 15% chance of winning this game remember last year uh close for like a half uh and then Vanderbilt just ran right through Hawaii and beat the Bose 63-10 uh in that week zero game uh over at Ching so what do you what are you what are you thinking here Hunter um Vandy will not have their dual threat quarterback um however they ran through us like uh like paper so their offensive line was strikingly big I remember observing that from the sideline um that's one thing that the SEC does not mess around on is uh big boys in the trenches so um we're GNA have a hard time just uh getting through around next to these big boys so I think that's fair um if they cough up the ball a few times maybe we'll keep it close but going all the way out there um that's significantly Far East for Hawaii to travel to as well so um yeah I think that's probably Fair uh 15% and uh just hoping that we stay healthy yeah last chick Hawai 18 point underdogs against Vanderbilt there yeah I i' I've got it as a loss as well like it's it's it's hard that's going to be a really tough game to start the season to go on the road uh to do that uh in SEC country against SEC size and athletes and it's just I I think it's going to be asking um a lot of this defense and you know for for an offense that's that's got a new identity um you know it's not necessarily the easiest to go out and and get things started against an SEC opponent this isn't maybe the the the well schooled Hawaii team that went to Alabama in 2006 or whatever it was right yeah all right moving on uh that's uh 0 and one start for for us both Hunter and I uh home against Stanford uh this will be Friday September 1st we talked about it last week campus will be closed to the excitement of some uh and the Sharin of others um that'll be on CBS Sports Network Stanford last year three and9 one and8 one of their worst seasons in recent memory they've got a new coach um I think they'll be a lot better uh ESPN analytics gives what a 37 .2 chance uh 37.2% chance of uh springing the upset here um against Stanford and Hawaii nine and a half Point underdogs uh at last check I think this one's going to be close I think this one is really going to come down to um possession uh ball security and uh who can capitalize and maybe hit a long field goal or two um I think this one's going to be right down to the wire and man Jordan there's some days I wake up thinking this one's going to be a win other times it's going to be a tough loss I'm kind of a I'm kind of a mix right now it could go either way but uh um for the sake of uh just positivity let's just say that we eat this one out and we're one and one okay all right that's more optimistic than I am so Hunter just got I'll put Hunter down for a w there at St I just think Stanford's going to be a lot better in it's going to be it's going to be interesting to see because Troy Taylor comes over right uh from Sacramento State uh Sacramento State team that went 12-1 last year uh made it to the FCS quarterfinals he went nine and3 and 9 and4 in his other two season 30 and8 uh and I'm not saying he's taking Stanford like June Jones style to like Conference Championship B eligibility or something like that I just think they're going to score a lot more points I I think you know Troy Taylor comes in he was a a wideopen spread throw it all over the field uh kind of modern offense um and so I think for Hawaii you know if it was like old Stanford even if they come in with like Stanford lineman and they were going to run the ball all over the place uh I think that would have voted better for Hawaii because maybe a shorter game um a lower scoring type Affair uh I just get a little nervous and hopefully the offense for the University of Hawaii gets to the point where they're putting up big numbers and things like that uh but I just get a little nervous uh uh if if Stanford can kind of replicate what Troy Taylor has been doing over the course of his career um for Hawaii to to keep Pace um again is is going to be a little tough so I I got it as a loss here um for uh the University of Hawaii uh at one and one through the first two all right uh moving on home against Albany Saturday September 9th uh ESPN uh analytics has way as an 89% uh to win that one I'm going to guess you probably agree that's a dub that's a dub for us um I think it's conservative that uh we're gonna we're going to win this one and we're going to win New Mexico State um in our non-conference um matchups but we absolutely need this one if we want to get anything done in the postseason yeah they they got to have this one right it's home it's an FCS opponent uh it's Albany who uh you know has has been okay uh over the the last several years uh but as we've we've seen whether it's Duane or some of these other schools coming in was it central Arkansas a few years ago Portland State uh in 2021 haai has done well against the FCS competition and as you point out like if there's any chance of getting to seven wins or or maybe six right six could be um the way to go ha's gota got to win this one right and and especially after coming off of two games against Vanderbilt and and Stanford two teams that that may be pretty physical uh that that that might work out well right yeah yeah Aly uh two- six last year yeah in the uh in the colonial and three and eight overall so you know that should that should vote well for the University of Hawaii all right uh we'll uh we'll look at the last two non-conference games here and then take a bit of a break um after the Albany game uh gets no easier though on the road I don't know Oregan will probably be in the top 10 um to Eugene that'll be Saturday September 16th that'll be a Pack 12 Network broadcasted game uh Oregon 10 and3 last year 7-2 just missed out on the Pack 12 title game uh after blowing it against Oregon state in the final game of the regular season they did beat North Carolina in the Holiday Bowl Hawaii a according to ESPN analytics a 2.5% chance of pulling off one of the bigger upsets in program history do you give them more than 2.5% chance here Hunter unfortunately not this is a sightseeing trip for the boys um a memory one where you get to go and probably see the Nike headquarters and things of that nature um yeah no this uh we're looking ahead towards me New Mexico State Jordan yeah yeah I think so uh stay healthy get out of there um and keep the season moving so uh I've got a one and three start uh for the team Hunter I think two and two at this point with the optimism against Stanford all right last non-conference game Saturday September 23rd at home against New Mexico State uh we all remember what happened last year when they went up uh and uh took on the Aggies in lusus lost that one 45 to 26 uh New Mexico State 7-6 overall last year did beat Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl um interestingly uh for a school that gets uh the a squad you know kill has done a great job I've been really impressed they got Denis pava back uh their very athletic dual threat quarterback um who started I think like roughly half the games last season uh ESP analytics s way as at 80.8% to win the game like a pretty heavy favorite here um I am a little more cautious but uh what to say you Hunter yeah I looked at some of these fpis and we we'll get into some of them later um they have us with only a 7% chance of beating Colorado State and Colorado state was horrible last year yeah these are kind of interesting uh when you break it down yeah ju just looking at the fbii numbers but uh yeah 80% I think is a bit High especially with how well New Mexico state ran the ball on us last year um we have definitely beefed up our dline um to kind of help with that but they are not uh the walk in the park New Mexico state that they once were so um this is probably going to be a little tough I do still have it um as a win for us but it's going to be close and so I think that fpi is probably closer to maybe a 55 or a 60 with us eeking it out with maybe um a three to a 10-point win something like that yeah I got it down as a win as well um I but a tossup I I think New Mexico state is still somehow underappreciated even after what they did last year uh um I I think you know if if they're once again coming out and running the football the way they did last year that was the the weakness of this ho defense and the hope that that they are much better um you know with with a lot of the added beef up front via the transfer portal guys like KU poopa and we we'll know a lot I think about that run defense by the time they get to week five um or the fifth game of the season with this group so I I I don't think this will be some sort of Cakewalk uh and I think it's a New Mexico State team an interesting New Mexico State team because remember they joined Conference USA this season so they are no longer an FBS independent all right so uh I've got Hawaii at like two and three in the non-conference hunters got them at three- two not a huge difference there but but maybe indeed it will be if it comes down to bold eligibility uh and we will get into Mountain West Conference play we'll take our halftime break here we've been at it for a bit uh so we'll take our halftime break come back uh and dive into the Mountain West portion of the schedule for this 202 23 Hawaii football season we'll be back this is Hawaii football now from ESPN [Music] Honolulu all right second halftime here on episode 99 Jordan hel Hunter Hughes back with you our guy jiren on the controls uh going through each game picking it out we went through the first five in the first half we'll go through the final eight uh as we get into Mountain West Conference play they open Mountain West Conference uh competition at UNLV a little bit earlier in the calendar usually uh than uh a Hawaii trip to Sin City that'll be Saturday September 30th um unov last year 5- seven three and five in conference uh a team that has kind of steadily been getting better they got a coaching staff change uh beating the rebels last year in mono 31-25 arguably maybe their best game of the season at least on offensively um ESPN football uh ESPN analytics actually has unov has a fairly heavy favorite here they give ha a 31.4% chance of winning uh in Vegas for the uh ninth island trophy the the wooden pineapple uh what do you think here Hunter I I think unov is going to be better uh I think ha is gonna be better too uh in a a road game here for the PO it's always tough for us um playing on the road regardless of who we're playing um Brumfield I think is going to be a sneaker um alternate for potentially even Mountain West offensive player of the year um he's one of the best dual threat guys out there um there is a lot of upside on this UNLV team I'm worried about this game um it's going to be tricky for us um I still feel like we're going to we're going to go and beat him um especially since I'm on the uh I'm on the uh the travel team that week so um they have that going for them obviously um but uh yeah man this is g to be tough I I have this unlb game as one of our um of one of our conference games that we need to win so that that's a win in my book it's going to be tricky yeah I I I think we're in agreement in terms of the caliber of UNLV I I think they're another team that has the potential to score a lot of points um you know we talked about the coaching change over at Stanford uh coaching change here at UNLV I I'm pretty high on Brennen Maran uh I think you know the the Die Hard Hawaii fans will be pretty familiar with him I don't know how many folks really got to get acquainted with him because it was only here for one year uh it was the coid year so nobody really got to see him play in person um and he was what was the wide receivers coach but at William and Mary had put up a ton of points uh as the offensive coordinator and gets a chance to call the plays once again um in an offense that is designed to kind of create easy easy opportunities uh and when you pair that with with Brumfield I'm with you I think he's got the quarterback to make that happen uh so I've actually got it as a loss for Hawaii but it's it's another one that I have as a as a tossup sort of in parenthesis there um as you point out you know it'll be a pro Hawaii crowd but it'll still be a road trip for for the squad uh and a UNLV team that was this close to getting a bowl eligibility last year uh and I think has a coaching staff that can take them to the next level so I got I got that as a uh Hawaii loss but uh a tossup uh really true tossup you want to talk about true toss-ups uh Hawaii after a bi-week in the first week of October October 14th we'll be back at it back at home and back on National Television to take on San Diego State the Aztecs last year s- six 5-3 in Mountain West Conference play actually took a trip out to Hawai last year lost the Hawai B uh to Middle Tennessee right there at Ching that'll be a 5pm Hawaii kick so uh an hour earlier than usual because of the CBS Sports network broadcast uh last year Hawaii losing at Snapdragon Stadium 16 to 14 right that was one of those uh what about three games last year it was like man Hawaii had him right on the ropes uh ESPN analytics as what he has about as slight of Underdog as you could possibly imagine 49.8% chance of Victory against the Aztec so I mean I get that is basically splitting it down the middle 50-50 I like the fact that Hawaii gets them off of a buy uh I like the fact that they get San Diego State at home um and uh a San Diego State team that Hawaii even over the years has has played relatively tough there were a couple stinkers if you think back to was it the 20 was it the 2019 uh 2018 team maybe uh that went up there and kind of got shellacked um you know it but they over the last several years Hawaii has played them very tough including last season up in San Diego so yeah this this according to uh to ESPN analytics is like as true a coin toss you could possibly get yeah um I don't know where ESPN get gets these fpi numbers from this one was the other one that kind of shocked me that they they literally it's as close to a coin toss as you can get as you can get 49.8% um s Diego State's always kind of had our number I don't know what it is um coach long for the longest time that's but uh he just conducted them in a um a very professional very um calm cool and collected uh sort of coaching style and they operated on that sort of operating system and so um yeah I as much as I think that we have done well against them recently um I've got San Diego State taken this one um again all of this I'm probably going to you know rethink once I see what our run and shoot offense looks like in this new era yeah we we really have no idea uh we have noidea idea what our offense is even going to look like we haven't seen much of it honestly we saw a little bit in the spring but the guys were still even drilling footwork in the spring and so we've talked about it at length in Fall Camp they've still got a tremendous amount of work in front of them to uh um to kind of establish themselves as an off and so um I've got this down as a loss but uh really who who knows what could happen in this game yeah it's that it's funny that you pointed that out because yeah Hawaii's played them pretty tough but overall that San Diego State's want vast majority of those right um when it comes down to it uh you know the year obviously that they Hawaii went to the Mountain West Title game that that big win at the L that was 2019 right so maybe the blowout I'm thinking about is 2018 um I've got it as a loss as well uh because of San dieo State's track record uh but it's it's another one that I've got in the the tossup column you'll when we get to the recap here in a second you'll see that uh a lot of toss-ups uh for this team again at home and Hawaii coming off of a bye I think really help um but yeah something about the Aztec man they always seem to they always seem to find a way uh so I've got it uh you know begrudgingly as a loss for the University of Hawaii all right the following week they're up at altitude in New Mexico uh October 21st New Mexico was not good last year to 10 0 and8 in conference uh they didn't play last season did Hawaii and um New Mexico ESPN um analytics has Hawaii at a 45.2% chance of winning uh I think a lot of that has to do with the the venue the fact that Hawaii is going on the road I had this as a win it's another game that I had in the tossup column if it was in if it was at Ching I'd feel really confident uh but the fact that they have to go on the road it it's not easy they've played well there in the past um you know I think the last time they went there that was under Todd Graham if I'm not mistaken maybe year two they played really well yeah um and so it's it's not a place that has been a house of horrors as of late but it's still it's still a tough one man it's still a tough one you got to figure it's coming off of a a pretty physical contest against San Diego State the week before you know 45% pretty close to a tossup uh if you want to look at the ESPN analytics numbers but I I had it as a win for Hai yeah I've got this down as a win as well this is one of those that we absolutely have to have circled on our schedule of we have to get the job done if we're planning on making a bow birth so um yeah it's going to be tough on the road but we get it done against New Mexico all right uh the following week back home uh homecoming for Chev Cordo October 28th uh as we move kind of into the last third of the Season or so uh that'll be Saturday October 28th uh ESPN football analytics numbers actually have Hawaii as a slight favorite there 56.7% uh uh losing in the season finale last year up in the Bay Area 27 to4 San Jose State seven and5 last year 5 and3 lost the uh Famous Idaho Potato Bowl everybody's favorite uh against Eastern Michigan uh what do you think uh of this matchup here Hunter ah it's going to be an emotional night uh chev's return home the prodigal son is returning um they're good though as as bummed as I am to say it they're better um as a team right now than we are right now um so off of that information I think that they're probably going to EK us out um I've got this one down as a loss for us um however um it will be uh it will be interesting watching our our dline give it to uh number two uh on San Jose a little bit Yeah I it's um it's a tough one because there's a lot of emotion involved I think for this right uh for the University of Hawaii um which Chevon Cordo coming back I'm sure there'll be a lot of emotion for him uh and obviously Brent Brandon his connection to the program uh in in a number of different ways the head coach for San Jose State I had it as a loss as well um it's a good program they're just a couple of years removed um from from winning the Mountain West in that you know a bit of a a bit of a weird abbreviated season um look they've got the preseason offensive player of the year in conference it's um it's a team that Hawaii didn't play great against last season albe it on the road uh in the final game of the season left a lot out there there were a lot of drops uh if you remember in that game maybe maybe uh played better than some of the results showed in terms of uh putting points on the board but yeah I I got it as a tossup in my tossup column But ultimately if you may if having to choose for the exercise I I had it as a loss uh against a a Spartan team that went bowling last year all right back on the road the following week first week of November wrapping up the final four games of the Season uh at Nevada a Nevada team that went 2- 10 last year 0 and8 uh team that Hawaii beats 31- 16 etching last season Hawaii uh per ESPN analytics 63.9% chance of beating the wolf pack on the road yeah this is another uh Circle Game for us um that in conference we have to have they are very early um in a rebuild right now and we have to capitalize if we want to get anything done this season um this is a a recruiting game for us where we would um how we play against a school like Nevada and put up some numbers I think would help um it would bode well for us in recruiting as well so um I've definitely got this as a W for us Jordan same same I think uh you know for uh going up to Nevada uh they were in a similar spot to us last year new coaching staff ton of transfers uh I think for Hawaii they have done a little bit better job of of replenishing the tank uh I think they've got a bit of an identity they've done okay going up to Reno in years past and and playing there I'm not sure what the game time will be uh you remember you know a couple of years ago a few different times I I feel like it's it's been raining up there when Hawaii goes and and if you're going to Reno November you know maybe less ideal than say early sep September uh but it is what it is uh I think I think I got that as a a a a pretty confident uh notch in the W column for Hawaii um there all right back home they take on Air Force an Air Force team that that some like to win the conference uh and and would be if it wasn't for Poise State uh once again uh Air Force last year 10 and three uh five and three in conference defeated Baylor in the arm Force's Bowl they had another Power five win just absolutely romt Colorado uh it's a much different Colorado program these days I get it um but uh they've been good Troy CLA Hun's been been real solid uh they've quietly been like the best service Academy team for a few years now uh even though Army and Navy get all the attention um the these two didn't play last year um ESPN U analytics has this is kind of a tossup 50.6% uh Hawaii actually favored uh ever so slightly um I got it as a loss for Hawaii like triple option kind of a nightmare coming to town I I put it in my toss-up column only because it's at home only because it's at the University of Hawai but you'll remember some of those some of those Air Force games man at home have been either heartbreaking or demoralizing right you think back to was it Cole's time where there was like the ball that bounced off the dude's leg that was an interception that kind of sealed it I think in the Rolo era um there was the were you play the Chow year where it was just there were like 12 people in the stands uh and it was like 77,000 to zero or whatever the score was I I apologize for piling on here but there there have been some Bleak moments against Air Force uh when they come to Hawai and uh there was one year where we beat him in overtime uh Drew Brown threw a touchdown and we beat him in overtime I think that's right was that up there it was up there yeah yeah it's kind of one of those weird things like boys played better in Colorado Springs um they don't play all the time obviously because of the the interdivisional matchup but um yeah I I just um I don't see that's a tough one man that's a tough they're they're gonna be good again uh and so I just uh would be kind of curious to to to see what the recipe for success is against a really good Air Force Team yeah Air Force is always tough even when they're not slated to win the Mountain West um they're smart their offensive linemen are all in shape because hey they're in the military um and they block the second and third level phenomenally they're always a handful of uh for us because we don't play well against the run and so they keep it on the ground they take care of the football um I've got this one down as a loss for us unfortunately um not something that we uh can really Bank on and trying to get anything done this season um it might be close but I'm with you Jordan uh I've got this game as kind of a a scary one on our schedule yeah it it it's going to be tough it's going to be tough to to slow that rushing attack down um and and be able to kind of keep Pace with them all right final two games of the season um back on the road to larmy against a a Wyoming team one of the more consistent programs in the conference kind of one of the more consistent programs in the country under Craig B uh a Wyoming Squad that came to honolu last year and uh played him tough uh but ended up losing 27-20 uh Wyoming went on to finish 7 and6 5 and3 in conference and lost the Arizona Bowl to Ohio uh ESPN analytics has what a 20.5% chance of winning this game in uh in the cold mountains uh come late November that's uh you know not the ideal time to go to larmy either no um I also I heard from our our guy Tanner Hayworth yesterday that we're going to be playing at noon up there so at High Noon basically the warmest it could possibly be at that time or on that day um I don't know if it's helping us though I I think anytime you have to travel all the way to laramy Wyoming um and play those guys it's going to be tough I don't know if we've ever beat them at lar if if you'll if we'll remember I think right the the last game of the Todd Graham era oh that's right was at laramy and that was like the best game arguably of the Todd Graham era outside of maybe the the Texas bowl and or whatever the New Mexico Bowl in Texas where Hawaii defeated Houston at the end of that 2020 season but that was that was such a weird one right where it's and then that ended up being the last game that uh didn't Sevin throw hell Mary that game in L uh end of the halftime I think yeah exactly yeah but they played they they like outclassed they were throwing the ball more than they had been uh defense looked pretty it was such a weird weird deal but yeah that was the last time they went there and they won uh so maybe I'm overblowing the whole road trip thing I don't know well I mean you're I don't think you're overblowing it because Hawaii does not do well on the road we just don't it's stat statistically shown every year year in year out we can chalk up a few home wins for us but we do not travel well and it's just tricky you know and at this point of the Year we're g bound to be battling with some injuries going to be counting on some other guys to fill some roles um and going all the way up to Wyoming late in the year when it's when it's chilly it's going to be tough for us I've got this down as a loss I got it as a loss too uh I think Wyoming will be what Wyoming is usually uh gonna be a big game for cam Stone going back uh up to to LY uh against his old Squad there all right uh final home game or final game of the season final home game it'll be Thanksgiving weekend uh November 25th uh Colorado State Coming to Town Colorado State 3 and9 last year 3 and5 in conference uh you remember that uh close one but kind of an ugly game real ugly Hawaii twice stopped on like fourth and goal I believe it was uh they lost to the ram 17-13 lot of connections with the program Jay norell obviously former Mentor uh Timmy Chen well I guess maybe not former Mentor uh but former uh former boss of Timmy Chang I know those guys still have a great relationship um Timmy was at Colorado State for like a week before getting the the Hawaii job uh but col State's got to come here um I think I I uh wrote down in the notes a little typo for you there Hunter but uh ESPN analytics Hawaii is 71.2% there we go favorites uh in this one I believe I I left out a digit there for you but yeah Hawai heavy favorites um preseason who knows what what by the end of the season what this game will look like like um but I I had one of these I had this one circled as well as a pretty confident W for for the bow yeah Colorado state is not strong um this absolutely needs to be another circled win for us and uh kind of with that win that brings us to give or take the Sanford game for me that's six or seven wins right there for um at least my my season um prediction yeah I think I think you got him at seven and six uh if I'm not mistaken based off of this um I've got them at uh five and eight is my prediction uh which is basically what ESPN has them at um I think some of the other prognosticators well Phil steel uh doesn't go game by game but something similar I think if you ask some folks 4 and9 5 and8 seems to be a pretty popular pick I think a lot of people really like the over uh at three and a half wins in this one um so we vary a little bit on a couple of games here but I think both of those were toss-ups uh when we broke it down um maybe outside of the Stanford one it was kind of interesting because I went through this exercise I wanted to do it kind of on my own before um you know got talking story with you Hunter and every year I do this and I kind of look at it right and it's not coping out or anything but uh games that you feel pretty good they're going to win you feel pretty confident they're going to lose and then then the toss-ups and I think you and I had very similar comments on a lot of these uh maybe outside of of the Stanford game but basically the three wins that I had circled Albany Nevada Colorado State the two dicey Parts about that um or the one dicey part about that is is on the road at Nevada I always get a little nervous about picking guaranteed wins uh for road trip on road trips for the University of ho uh I had four losses uh ad fandy Stanford at Oregon and at Wyoming I felt like okay those those are pretty confident that uh you know it's going to be uphill sledding no doubt would be great if they pull off an upset there and then that that's only half the game six games I cired I had like toss-ups um and so I I really feel like those could go either way New Mexico States uh at UNLV San Diego State at New Mexico uh I put as a tossup even though I have it as a win when we went through the exercise San Jose State and then I put air force in there maybe um istically I probably can bump them to the to the loss category if I want to if I want to go through that but I I mentioned this only because man like I really think like up to half of their games or so they're gonna be really hard to predict until we get into the season um and that could go one of two ways right if they win half of those all of a sudden you know I got them at like six and seven maybe seven and six um but it's it's a team that I think you know three wins is the floor um and then they've they've got a lot of games on the SC schedule that could go either way that'll make or break this season um and I think you took a slightly more optimistic approach to some of those games um than I did but you're really looking at six to seven games on the schedule where you know that'll be the difference between another bottom of the bottom of the conference three and 10 two- six in conference uh year or a team that's that's knocking on the door of maybe playing in a bowl game and boy that would be a massive difference in momentum going into the future going into the offseason going into the recruiting season right if they're playing a bowl game come Christmas uh they moved the Hawaii Bowl right it's not Christmas Eve this year but anyway right around Christmas that'll lead you um right around the time of early Signing Day um you want to make sure all those local guys stay home Michael aliado as well um that would be huge I think momentum wise or a big difference than hey maybe you know the team's limping to the Finish Line it's like hey guys we still want you to come right be big big difference uh and I think it sets up Hai has uh it's there for them it's there for them if they could play good enough football uh I think um you can talk yourself into this team being close if not bowling yeah I I think um well I agree with you Jordan we're we're one of those teams and in one of those conferences where there's a lot of games that can kind of flip flop either way um it's a little topheavy with a few of the teams up there like Boise and Fresno and I guess Arizona State I mean sorry um Air Force is one of those um this season at least but if you look at last year a lot of those losses came um at single point um uh I mean um single digit deficits of losses so we we were very very close on a lot of those losses and if those turned in our favor we're were're bowling last year and Timmy Chain's first season on a very poor Hawaii team so I think it comes down to um team leadership I think it comes down to um that team being together which in in my observation they've done a fantastic job of creating that and retaining that with the guys that are still there in that locker room and U that's what's going to count down the stretch so um yeah I I'm very uh very bullish Jordan that we can make it to a Bull game this year and uh yeah I'm I'm I'd be shocked if we aren't able to do that in this first um rendition of the Timmy Chang uh run and shoot era it's got people excited uh Greg Angeles uh in speaking to uh some of our colleagues on the morning show with uh Chris AR gar Dickman um was also talking to Josh Peko and and John verer on the ground there in Vegas as part of that conversation um he's very Pro running shoot uh even as a BYU guy he said hey he's look he's used to right the the the glory years under LEL Edwards where they were throwing the ball all over the place with guys like Ty dmer and and Steve Young and and whatnot so um he's uh he's Pro run and shoot um we'll get into next week kind of his thoughts on scheduling because you know you you point out hunter topheavy in conference also kind of a top schedule for the University of Hawaii with those three power five conference games amongst the first five in the non-conference and how that could set up or hinder Hawaii for Success throughout the Mountain West Conference season um we'll see we'll uh we'll have to file this away and then maybe revisit things as we go throughout the year and see how close or far off we were uh in picking some of these games I wanted to shout out everybody who commented uh or left us a note on um on last week's episode uh we will get into some of those comments next week as well uh episode 100 that's right on episode 100 uh we are uh it's still being worked and massaged and and uh you know we uh we know uh you loyal listeners uh will uh will'll always be there and we appreciate you guys very very much and are excited to bring you episode 100 next week and that was actually uh a little bit of uh the ending here a quick two-minute drill uh kind of hard to believe Hunter that's uh 99 episodes down um take one down pass it around and uh episode 100 next week we had uh our guy jiren uh on it for a bunch uh going back to uh to kle helping us out in the beginning and uh Jonathan's done a tremendous job uh since taking over as producer of this podcast again he's up in Vegas but uh yeah I mean we we'll reflect a little bit more next week but uh kind of hard to believe uh we're almost there man yeah I uh this is a milestone man and uh kind of a testament of what just like very simple consistency can do Jordan like I'm so thank so thankful um that people listen to us first of all that's crazy absolutely but uh I mean just couple of uh you know I'll speak for myself an idiot and then a guy from from Maui um you know what I mean like talking football um and people tune in it's it's hilarious um but uh yeah like we're about to hit a 100 episodes and all we've ever done was one a week ever like I don't know if we've ever doubled up so it's just it's kind of crazy what just uh one week at a time can build up towards that's kind of cool yeah I think the only time we had to like re-record something once because of the uh the canceled Hawaii Bowl back in 2021 I guess that would have been right that's that's how long we've been at this um and there have been some breaking news type things that we've had to kind of jump on and and get some thoughts that's kind of one of the nice things about this podcast we get an opportunity to uh to empty the tank a little bit uh when there's when there's been some big news gives us a nice little Outlet so yeah it's going to be a lot of fun next week got some some things in the work for you guys on episode 100 maybe we'll drag jiren out of it as well and uh him say something we'll see him and Jonathan we'll have them debate on on a series of hot button topics just kidding jar uh no just uh just wanted to say thanks again to Spectra mobile Hawaii USA Federal Credit Union uh who have been with us for the vast majority of the way uh if not from the very beginning thanks as well to the listeners and we will see you guys next week on episode 100 right here on Hawaii football now you've been listening to Hawaii football now with Jordan LA and Hunter Hughes all from ESPN Honolulu