BMW Championship best bets: Rory McIlroy, Wyndham Clark lead | Going for the Green | Golf Channel

welcome to going for the green I'm Brad Thomas here with Denny Carter and this week it's the BMW Championship yes we are down to 50 in the FedEx Cup playoffs last week he had a fantastic finish where Hideki maama tried to do his absolute best to give away the tournament but he came through strong with the final three holes and ended up winning the tournament Denny how's it going my man I I'm just continually impressed by Hideki becoming an elite player like you know he was always he was always very good you know but this season this past couple months he's the best ball striker in the world in in many regards and uh hopefully he can keep it up if he can just putt a little bit uh he could I think he could compete with uh Scotty and and Xander yeah it's funny he gained like career high numbers on the putting surface at that tournament but I feel like that's kind of what we've seen at that event um but now we go to a course that we really haven't seen I think what last time was 2006 2008 and that's Castle Pines in Castle Rock Colorado and I'm just going to go ahead with my first guy he is from Colorado but I didn't even care about that really like not that much I just cared about how his form was I bet him last week at 70 to1 I'mma bet him again at 31 with only a 50 gol for field so of course the price are going to be shorter and that's Windam Clark I talked about this uh last week where wiam Clark quietly has been putting together a pretty good resume since his miscut at Memorial he finished T9 at Travelers T10 at the Scottish open yes missed the cut at the open But Then followed it up at T14 after a really really bad first round at Len AAL for the Olympics and then last week his t7 was pretty much a fantastic finish again I feel like Windam Clark has been kind of starting off the blocks pretty slowly right round one he lost Strokes on the off the T he lost Strokes putting then round two he lost Strokes on approach but then he finished that in rounds three and four and he was pretty much a Gainer all over the place him being from Colorado I think helps a lot right when we look at the elevation and yardage changes I think it'll be a little bit easier for him to assimilate faster than the other golfers because we see it's like an 8100 yard Golf Course uh but it's really only going to play like 70 because you have to do the elevation changes uh and the ball travels differently so at 30 to1 Windam Clark was a pretty good option for me it's it's home cooking that's what R Clark will have going for him and you know the thin there we're going to see drives going just ridiculous uh yardage you know 400 sometimes off these te's so that'll be cool uh my my uh my high price pick for this week Brad is one that I I don't take any pleasure in in talking about after last week's disaster it's Rory melroy you may have heard of him uh third third highest uh price guy on DraftKings this week now look it was gross last week week okay Rory finished tied for 68th and a field of 70 um disastrous on the greens he lost Strokes uh he he lock Strokes on the greens off the te on approach he gained a little bit around the greens so he has that going for him but here's why you're playing him this week okay just stick with me here don't try not to dry heave yet uh you're playing him because he's going to be contrarian for the first time in a very long time as long as I can remember people are not going to want play Rory after what they saw last week right so you know yes you're going to have to pay up still but you're going to get him at a lowered roster rate right and we don't often get that luxury with uh you know the highest pric guys with Elite golfers like Rory so take we can take advantage of that now in this is for large field DraftKings tournaments that okay I want to be clear about that if you're playing cash games you're playing 50-50s whatever there's no earthly reason to stuff Roy maroy into your lineup okay you go with Xander you go Scotty and and you're done with it as far as the high price guys go um but so this is this is more of a strategy thing than a uh you know Rory comes into this being good thing I will say even after last week's debacle uh Rory is still top 10 in this field in par five scoring and in total driving of course total driving is a metric that blends driving distance with driving accuracy um it's something I weighed pretty pretty heavily here uh so uh get gross with your lineup and consider Rory maroy it's funny Rory maroy lost Strokes off the te for the first time since uh the players championship and the time before that was back in 2013 seems like forever ago since we're already in 2024 uh this guy just doesn't lose Strokes on approach but he's been he was pretty poor right like I bet on him and I was pretty upset I got him at a really good price at 20 to1 I thought I would get a little bit but uh the the my thing that concerns me about Roy malol has been his putter um he's lost Strokes in five straight events putting um if he turns that around though at a course like this a course that you can overpower uh a good ball strike of course he's a great option and when you think about him from a betting perspective he's 12 to1 if you're like me and likes to have a little action with a parlay you parlay a 12 to1 with like your favorite minus 110 money line you're sitting around somewhere like plus 20 plus 2000 which is not terrible for a guy who's a proven winner and who could get it going in an instant he didn't learn he didn't forget how to how to play golf folks yeah by the way on the putting Rory if you're listening it may be time to speak uh broomstick buddy yes yeah he needs he need to do something he he might need to speak to his ball in the hole but I'm going with a Aaron Ry and I'm not gonna go as far as saying I'm gonna take him to win the tournament well his price is pretty good if I look over here I think it's something like uh I don't know 50 to1 30 to1 45 to1 we we'll we'll land on it but I'm gonna go with him to finish top 20 in a 50-man field Aaron Ry Mr consistent top 20 Aaron Ry lost almost five Strokes on the putting surface last week five Strokes that's a lot but guess what he still finished inside the top 16 I didn't want to be anywhere near him after cashing him at to win but it's just because like generally the the emotion after you win a tournament the next week your emotions are all over the place hence why his driver and his putter weren't great but we're at another ball Striker's course and over the last 36 rounds he's been one of the best ball Strikers here is certainly top 10 guy I would play him top 10 but I'm gonna be kind of cautious just because if that putter really starts to be an issue I don't want to be scraping the bottom of the barrel praying that I get the Dead Heat money so I'm just gonna take top 20 Brad as I always do I I made a model for this tournament and Aaron Ry came in third behind only Scotty Sheffer and Xander chafl so you're on the right track I think hey I like it well tell me what you like about Mr OE batia uh tournament has been really going his way over the last few but at this price I can kind of get down with it yeah you know so I looked at four main uh factors here Strokes gained approach approach from 200 plus yards uh I should say proximity on on those long approaches par five scoring and then the aformentioned total driving and uh batia was first in total driving he was top 20 in both Strokes gain on approach um and par five scoring um you know he's a really good driver I I I I didn't really realize that until I really looked into the numbers uh you know before we recorded here batia has gain Strokes off the tea in nine of his past uh 10 events he has a 70% Fairway rate which is like borderline Elite so I think that he should be in position to score here um and you know that's all we can ask for hopefully you know his his putter comes alive or at least he's like a zero putter like a like a like a a mid-range putter here on this course I do think this course fits in pretty well though yeah I'm always down for for auction I I I did find a little bit of trouble personally um kind of calculating the proximity buckets and how they would change for guys who are great wedge wedge players and great off the tea um but if you want to talk about another good ball Striker that's OE batia I'm gonna go with my last pick and this guy's been kind of all over the place uh but with it being week zero in college football starting this week and me loving the Crimson Tide I figured there was no better time than to bet on an Alabama golfer than this week uh Nick Dunlop his PR is absolutely enormous 70 to1 listen he scraped by last week right needed to make par on 18 to solidify his place into the next tournament but that's not because he hasn't had a great season that's because when he won yes when he won for the first time this season you heard me say first time not only time he didn't get those FedEx Cup points because he was an amateur he won again and he got those points when he won at the Barracuda Championship Nick Dunlop has been pretty phenomenal even in his his rounds in tournaments where he hasn't been the best right like at Windham Championship where he missed the cut he still was a big Gainer on approach his his driver kind of let him down but this is a course that needs good strong drivers and that's exactly what Nick dlap is he drives and tears the cover off the ball his T5 finish last week could have been higher especially after what making a pretty much a tap in on the first hole I think he kind of faltered a little bit missing puth and it got in his head he admittedly said he was a little nervous which makes sense but if I feel like if he just continues to play really good golf hits the cover off the ball gain Strokes ball striking which he gained six in his last event he's gonna be live at 70 to1 we just need someone who's gonna kind of be there for us and give us any kind of hedge possibilities he was top five in Strokes gained on approach last week and he was top 10 in putting his putting has been quietly very good over the past month or so uh so I do like Dunlap here yeah so you know what's funny uh I'm having like severe PTSD whenever I see the name of the golfer you were about to take severe PTSD and you know I'm going to kind of go off course here and say this when I was betting Nick Donald if I posted an update of the golf not excuse me grer the golfers who I had bet on in their standings someone on Twitter said there's no way he blows this and immediately he snap puts his ball slices whatever it was out of bounds cards in eight on that hole and ends up losing the tournament so go ahead and tell me about why you like the guy who is giving me serious problems I want to apologize first of all Brad I I didn't know that this would do do this to you I would have chosen someone else but look at 6,300 on DraftKings Max gracer I think is a really good value play a really good way to save some salary on DraftKings and be able to you know grab a few of the top 10 highest priced guys including like I said maybe Rory maroy but you know despite that complete debacle a couple weeks ago uh grer grer tied for 33rd last week at St Jude on the strength of a fin fin round 63 was one of the hottest guys on that Sunday um he's second best in this field in par five scoring he's number one in this field in proximity to the pin of over 200 yards out um it doesn't hurt that only Sam Burns has been better on the greens uh than grayer over the past month among players in this field so I I think everything is pointing toward grayer being a pretty safe play you know I I don't think that he's he's going to be in contention here for real but at 6,300 you don't you don't really need that um you know he's the guy I'm looking toward uh you know to save some some some salary and also I don't really see folks gravitating to him um in a big way as far as roster construction goes yeah grayer's the kind of golfer who kind of goes under the radar in this first year of his and it was hard right like bouncing back from an an an epic collapse how do you perform yes his first three rounds weren't great but finally when he realized that listen I'm just here playing golf he went out and fired off a 63 another no cut event here should do him uh uh do him pretty well so listen Denny you gave me PTSD but we had a great time talking about golf anybody uh on here make sure you you check out nbcsports.com for all your help with your Wagers I'm Brad Thomas here with Denny Carter thanks for checking out