Tennessee Football: Oklahoma Sooners or Alabama Crimson Tide Most Important on Vols Schedule?

it's a conversation we've had a couple of times throughout the offseason but I wanted to reset it as we are inching ever so close to the start of fall Camp what's the biggest game on Tennessee schedule and is that the same game that you would consider the most important game on Tennessee's schedule that whole lot more it's your Thursday lock on balls you are locked on balls your daily podcast on the Tennessee Volunteers part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day hey everybody Welcome to lockon vs your Thursday Edition I'm Eric Kane we're a part of lockon podcast Network where it is your team every single day big shout out to our friends over at game time for making the show possible today download the game time app create an account put in the promo code locked on college for $20 off your first purchase got a really fun show today I'm actually really excited about today's show and tomorrow's show first tomorrow's show I'm going to be out of town so I went ahead and pre-recorded it but you every dayers know that every year entering the new season whether it's a couple weeks before the opener or right around this time before fall Camp I do something called the Tennessee player draft I have a very special guest that'll join me every time and we'll alternate picks you know 1 2 3 4 all the way down to 20 and then we decide which team is better that's coming up on tomorrow show my buddy Boogie Bentley from Talking fall is going to join us wean out the Tennessee player draft on tomorrow show so you don't want to miss that but on today's show biggest game on the schedule um I think I have a different game in mind than a lot of you guys and uh but the more and more you think about it you can make cases for several different games we'll discuss that here in a matter of seconds and then in segments two and three we're going to get dive down deep into an article that CBS Sports put out a couple days ago on tight football games blowout rates for um some conferences and specifically for some teams in those conferences what if I told you that over the last 10 years 50% of Tennessee's football games have been blowouts one way or the other is that believable we're going to dive down deep into some of those seasons specifically the Josh Hy era and a lot of good stuff coming up in segment 2 and three on um on that subject so I hope you stick around and check that out you can watch us listen to us subscribe to us all that for free wherever you get your podcast and of course on the YouTube channel where you can subscribe to locked on balls okay so I've been doing radio hit and radio hit and radio hit and um throughout the offseason throughout the summer and um they they continuously ask me a lot of those common questions on you know what's the biggest game What's the game that you have circled on the calendar what game means the most for Tennessee in other words what's maybe the most important game for Tennessee and my answer has always been Oklahoma um and they say whoa whoa whoa what what about NC State right that's a huge non-conference game there in week two at a neutral sight in Charlotte and I agree it's a big time matchup and I fear that a lot of the Tennessee fan bases just overlooking the wolf pack I think Tennessee will be favored in that football game and I think Tennessee should win that football game I'm picking Tennessee to win that game but NC State finished the 2023 season strong got better in the transfer portal got significantly better at the quarterback position with Grace McCall so that's going to be no pushover I think that's going to be a tight football game but I believe Tennessee should and will win that football game my answer is Oklahoma for a number of different reasons one it's the first SEC game and I know that might be coach talk and Coach speak and maybe the former football player in me but that is kind of not your first test because NC State will certainly be a test but that's your first I don't even want to say the NC State is a quiz because I'm not trying to diminish it but I mean it you get into SEC play it means more no pun intended right I me that's your first SEC game and more than anything that is your first true Road game you're taking on the wolf pack in a neutral sight in Charlotte where it's going to be 50/50 minimum Tennessee and Wolfpack fans um Tennessee fans are going to travel and in fact it might be even more orange in there than red or Scarlet or whatever color they are um but this game in Norman is going to be huge they're calling it on the Oklahoma side probably the biggest uh regular season football game in the last you know in this Century um in quite some time in a couple of decades on Tennessee side of course it's huge because in my opinion and I've been kind of phrasing this all off season long that is the tone Setter for this football season in my opinion you go on the road and we'll get into Oklahoma here in a moment the specifics of Jackson Arnold and all that hypo versus Oklahoma but you go on the road in that game say you win that football game okay you're sitting pretty coming home or for an off week going to Arkansas that next week on the 5th and then coming home for the long stretch against Florida Alabama Kentucky and Mississippi State before hitting the road for Georgia and then coming back to neand for the regular season finale at neand against utap and then on the road against vanderbelt to finish off the regular season my point is you win that game against Oklahoma and you have really started off on the right foot to stake your claim as a true Contender for the 12 team college football playoff because if you win that game against Oklahoma in my opinion you can afford to lose the game against Alabama at home I'm not saying Tennessee will lose that game in fact depending on where the season is and these two teams Tennessee could very easily be of the favorite at home against the Crimson Tide on the third Saturday in October October 19th that that is that is no gimme for Alabama this year certainly not a gimme for Tennessee don't get me wrong Tennessee the last couple years obviously beat Alabama the last time these two teams played at neand Stadium back in 2022 Josh Hy's offense has given Nick Sav I know Nick sav's not there anymore but it's given Nick sav's defense fits since hypo's been here in Knoxville in 2021 the game really got away from hypo there at the end in Tennessee in the fourth quarter but Tennessee was taken it to Alabama and bright and Denny 2022 of course Tennessee won that football game 2023 Tennessee had a double- digit lead at halftime just completely dropped the ball and you know had a goose egg there in the second half and it was still only what a 13 14o game altogether but Tennessee just didn't show up and play four quarters but my point is Tennessee's proven that it can play with Alabama certainly but that game at home is is is a big one either way but if you win that game against Oklahoma and understanding you take care of business on the road at Arkansas and a home against Florida I know that game that home game against Florida is no gimme because Tennessee and Florida it's never easy and Florida has Tennessee's number but if you do what you're supposed to do you beat the Gators at home regardless because you're a better football team and again the games at nean Stadium you can afford to drop that game against Alabama say you have a slip up say you lose that game against Alabama not the end of the world in a perfect world say that's your first loss on the season okay you beat Kentucky as you should better football team won't be easy beat Mississippi State you going on the road to Georgia that's assuming say hey right now that's a loss for Tennessee certainly Tennessee can win that game but let's be real let's have a grown up conversation I'm going to pick Tennessee to lose that game in the onset here in the summer months depending on where these two teams are at this point in the season maybe that'll change on game week but no one's going to criticize me or you shouldn't criticize me if you're being logical about things if that you know Tennessee Los into Georgia so that's a loss you should beat UTP you should beat vanderbild so my point is if you win at Oklahoma you can afford another loss on that schedule and still be gosh if you're 10 and two in the SEC you better be in the college football playoff I think that Oklahoma game is Just mon instrumental Now instrumental huge now say you lose that Oklahoma game and this is where the other side of the coin is that's why people are probably saying the biggest game on the schedule is Alabama say you lose that game against Oklahoma it makes that game at home against the Crimson Tide that much more important not only is it a rivalry game third Saturday in October not only is it a home game but if you want to be a college football playoff team you've got to win that game against Alabama at home and you've got again youd rather play the Crimson Tide at home than on the road in bright and Denny um so I can see both sides of the coin here for those saying that like me the first game or the the first SEC game against Oklahoma is the biggest and the most important I can also see people I can also understand when people say well no that home game against Alabama is the most important again we're just not trying to overlook here but we're not even really taking into account NC State some of you guys out there might be saying well it's Florida until Tennessee can consistently beat Florida and get that monkeyy off its back it's got to be the Gators and I hear you because we continue to do win loss win loss going into every single season and I've seen so many more losses than I've seen wins I've seen three wins since 2004 against the Florida Gator I was inhouse in 2004 when James wi Hoy made that 51 yard field goal I was watching on television in 2016 I was in house in 202 22 when Tennessee had a huge lead against the Gators but still almost gave that game up I understand people that are going to say the Florida Gators makes so much sense to me but gosh darn it Tennessee is a better football team playing at home that should be a win it should be a win but if you're going to say that's the most important game certainly understandable I can't fault you there my answer is Oklahoma because I think that it's a good football team it's got a good defense it's got a young promising quarterback much like Niki alava first true test for him really same first true test for Nico first true road test for Nico it's the SEC opener and then of course all the national hoop law of Josh Hopple going home where you know National Championship Heisman runner up assistant coach the ending Bob stops no longer head coach of the program but you know he's back there you know kind of pulling the strings like he is um there's going to be a lot of hoop law for that football game so um there's you know there there's a lot that goes into account there plus after that Oklahoma game you get your first off week empty the tanks burn the ships win that football game I think that is the biggest game on the schedule for Tennessee but I understand if you have another opinion so let me let me hear your your biggest game on the schedule most important game on the schedule maybe that's the same game maybe you can differentiate those somehow Ator Kaner lockon balls and of course on the YouTube channel you can comment on this episode hey really interesting subject matter we're going to get into into when we return here on lock down balls it is uh stemming from an article over at CBS Sports talking about a blowout games and tight rate games uh tight game rate if you will in college football dating back to the 2014 season that has coming up next as we continue on here with your Thursday edition of lockdown balls game time is the perfect place to buy tickets to the events in 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going to credit you 110% of the difference they've got the best customer service in the game that's on the game time app again promo code locked on college for $20 off your first purchase download game time today last minute tickets lowest price guaranteed all right guys welcome back in your Thursday edition of lock on vs appreciate you guys for making this your first listen each and every day check out lock on SEC make that your second listen today after lock on vs uh fall Camp just right around the corner first practice is next Wednesday the the next yeah next Wednesday I was going to say next Wednesday or the the the next Wednesday on the schedule that that means next Wednesday smart um smart but but uh yeah man we we are we we have almost survived the off season guys we are we are here and uh check out all that over on lock on SEC from a a bigger look at the conference okay so I've been I've been reading and I've been evaluating and I've been researching I'm not going to lie to you the last couple of days when I get intrigued or interested in a topic and this is how it's supposed to work say you have other outlets out there that you know pose a scenario or pose a question and and you read that and you evaluate that article and then you take it further and evaluate it with your specific team and that's kind of how this has been Tom Fornelli over at CBS Sports a couple of days ago he put out an article saying which college football teams play tight the tightest games um essentially what is the blowout rate for some of these teams and some of these conferences in college football and he does a nice job of breaking it down he puts them into sections um basically saying which games are not fun to watch which games are you turning the channel to another game late in the third quarter and the fourth quarter in the second half they have he has a group of 15 you know teams that are kind of in that biggest blowout rate he's got another section on which teams play the tightest games meaning they might not be the best team in the country but win or lose typically these teams these 15 teams are playing in the tightest football games on routine the last the last 10 years and then he's got another section down here that has 15 more teams that said hey these are two score team so it's not quite a blowout but it's not one score you know highly contested contest to where it's a nailbiter it's just kind of in that middle ground and and here are two teams that do a good job of playing in that middle ground so I thought this was really interesting and of course I scanned I wanted to find where Tennessee was and lo and behold Tennessee was in the first group um what does this mean what's the criteria of what Tom forelli did over here at CBS Sports well he looked at conference games okay dating back to uh dating back to 2014 uh so the last 10 years he excluded the 2020 season um he didn't include independent teams obviously because they don't you know play in conference games and any program that does not have a sample size of at least 40 games so a lot of these newcomers to uh the FBS level they're not included in this as well and when you look at where Tennessee Falls in this going back to 2014 conference games Tennessee comes in at number 11 in the section where it's typically a blowout meaning since 2014 5139 of Tennessee's SEC games have ended in blowout fashion what is blowout fashion that is 17 points or more either way win or loss now going back to 2014 there are many many more losses in that category than there are in wins let's be real here but can you sit here and think about this since 2024 since 2014 the last 10 football seasons excluding 2020 but I'll get to the 2020 season here in a moment I've got some notes here um 50% of Tennessee's conference games have ended in blowouts one way or the other that is half half of Tennessee's conference games have ended with 17 points or more whether you won by that or you lost by that that's pretty remarkable when you sit here and think about it and you know I'm not going to lie to you when I saw what this article was about I I read the headline the first couple of paragraphs I got to think okay well Tennessee and blowout I bet Tennessee has been in more blowout games one way or the other more than what we would realize because Tennessee was so bad for so long right and lo and behold that that was the case now I did not know that Tennessee would be at number 11 and then I did not know that number would be at 5139 per. um which I thought was was man I thought it was really really interesting what are some I'll get into specific Tennessee stuff in the Josh hyp area here in segment number three in a couple of minutes but who are some of those other teams that have played in the biggest blowout game one way or the other well number one on this list is ruter for obvious reasons they are very bad 67% of their big 10 games have ended in blowouts Georgia is at number two on the flip side of that because Georgia has been so good and so dominant 63% of the Bulldogs uh Bulldogs uh games over the last 10 years have ended in blowouts Ohio state is number three Maryland's at number four you can see good bad good bad Appalachian State would be good at number five Michigan at number six Vanderbilt is tied for seventh with Kansas Troy is ninth Oregon is 10th Tennessee is 11th Alabama is 12th and that makes sense because Alabama's been really really good Temple's at 13 Penn State is at 14 and then there's actually a a four-way tie here at 15th Arizona FIU SMU and North Texas some of the teams that played in the most tightly contested football games Virginia's at 1 North Carolina's at two Texas is at number three Northern Illinois at 4 Nebraska's at 5 Iowa is at 6 Kansas is at seven Coastal Carolina is at 8 tied for ninth is Eastern Michigan and Miami and Old Dominion and South Alabama and Texas A&M all at 47.2 22% of games played have been one score games and then Kent State is 14 and UNLV is 15 and then those teams that play right in The Sweet Spot two score games number one is NC State two is Wisconsin three is Arizona State tied for fourth is New Mexico and Tulsa Colorado state is sixth tied for seventh is Miami of Ohio and Wyoming tied for ninth is Louisiana Tech and San Diego State Houston is 11th tied for 12th is Georgia State Mississippi State ol Miss in South Carolina and so that that's kind of the the three groupings that Tom fernell has kind of broken it down to so what I did and I'm going to get into this in a matter of seconds in second number three is I went back specifically of the Josh hyp eras and I excluded conference games I just looked overall games on the schedule how many of Tennessee's games in 2021 in 2022 and in 2023 ended in blowout fashion one way or the other again blowout fashion to 17 points or more you will be amazed at how few games Tennessee has played in where it's been one score or it's been a nailbot I mean truly we can almost count on one hand in three seasons how many times Tennessee's played in a one- score game it's truly remarkable and I've got I've got some interesting notes here about the 2020 season and the 2018 season which are not too good that's coming up next year as we continue on with a Thursday edition of lockdown VA stay tuned all right guys we got a final segment left here of this Thursday's show we're going back and looking at this article from CBS Sports looking at tight football games and blowout rates for conferences and specific teams over the last 10 years again a blowout consists of 17 points or more one way or the other and this article from Tom forelli over TBS Sports looks at conference games only dating back to 2014 and Tennessee comes in at number 11 meaning 5139 of Tennessee's conference games since 2014 have ended in blowout fashion 17 points or more one way or the other that's pretty pretty hard to believe now let's take it a step further let's look at all games not just conference games but let's look at the Josh hyp era in 2021 if you look at all 1 games that Tennessee played nine of those games nine of the 13 games have ended or ended in 2021 in blowout fashion man three of those were blowout losses six of those were blowout wins you look at it specifically Bowling Green huge blowout win Tennessee Tech huge blowout win sure those are non-conference Florida a blowout loss Missouri a blowout win South Carolina a blowout win Al abama a blowout loss though it got away from them in the fourth quarter that was a that was a tight game for a while Georgia was a blowout loss you uh that was South Alabama USA South Alabama was a blowout win non-conference and vanderbolten were blowouts one way or the other the blowout losses were Florida Bama of course I already mentioned that Bama and um and Georgia um so that's pretty incredible n of 13 Josh H was pretty consistent in 2022 Tennessee Volunteers in 2022 of the 13 games nine of those games in 2022 ended in blowout fashion but eight of those were wins one of those were losses compared to six blowout wins in 2021 to three blowout losses in 2021 in 2022 obviously Tennessee finished with a 10 and one or a 10-2 regular season record that Clemson victory in the in the orange B made it 11-2 it was um just a fantastic season all the way around obviously you're going to have more blowout wins and blowout losses um but you know still nine of the 13 games played ended in 17 points or more one way or the other um Tennessee blue pass Ball State Tennessee blue pass akan Tennessee blue pass DSU Tennessee blue pass UT Martin Tennessee blue pass Kentucky Tennessee blue pass Missouri Tennessee got drilled by South Carolina Tennessee blue pass Vanderbilt and Tennessee blue pass Clemson technically Clemson was a 17-point win for the University of Tennessee 17-point win I had to double check because simple math fails me a lot of times but you've got 31 minus 14 that's a 17-point victory for the Tennessee Volunteers so that counts in 2022 n of 13 games end in a blowout fashion eight of those were wins for Tennessee one of those were losses and then that brings us to 2023 again Josh hyp and his Tennesse volunteers are consistent nine of the the 13 games ending in blowout fashion for Tennessee in 2023 so that means in three years as head coach in three years N9 time 3 is what 27 Josh hyle 27 of the 36 games that he has coached here at the University of Tennessee 39 games 39 games 20 uh [Music] 20 20 27 of the 39 games I always want to double check my math because I'm stupid 27 of the 39 games in three seasons for Tennessee under Josh Hy have ended in blowout fashion in 2023 you had seven blowout wins you had two blowout losses the blowout wins included Virginia Austin P UTSA South Carolina Yukon Vanderbilt and Iowa and of course the blowout losses were to Missouri and Georgia Georgia has been a common theme Here appearing on the list on two separate years Tennessee's loss to Georgia in 2022 was by 14 points that does not constitute as a blowout loss but the wins were seven in 2023 the losses were two in blowout fashion in 2023 um so Josh H's very consistent you want to look at some of the the bad numbers a little bit and this this predates Josh hyp um I wanted to specifically focus on Josh Hy I'm not going to go back and look at 242 you 2014 15 16 17 all that um for the most part of the puit you know Butch duera just because I don't have enough time so I wanted to focus on Josh hyp but I did want to go back and draw attention to two other Seasons during the hyp era Tom forelli excluded the 2020 season just because it was wacky some teams played this amount of game some teams played that amount of games some teams didn't play at all so I get all that but I looked at the 2020 season Tennessee of course finished three and seven played 10 games not very good Tennessee had four blowout losses in that 2020 season and two blowout wins remember it started off hot for Tennessee with two wins it was a nail Bing Victory on the road at South Carolina and then it was a blowout win over Missouri at home there in that second game um and then later on it was a blowout win over Vanderbilt that snapped the big losing streak so he had two blowout wins he had four blowout losses six of the 10 games in 2020 for Tennessee ended in blowout fashion 17 points are more one way or the other but I'm not going to lie to you I thought it was 2020 I was looking for a specific stat I thought it was 2020 that's why I brought up 2020 it was actually 2018 in 2018 Jeremy pritz coach Tennessee Volunteers had five losses by 26 points or more if a blowout is considered 17 points or more what's the word for 25 points or more in this case 2 six points or more pretty remarkable right think about that in 2018 Tennessee lost five games by 26 points and and Josh even made this point um on the show on Wednesday even in 2023 as as recently as last year Tennessee's losses were in blowout fashion of course you've got Georgia you've got Missouri you've got um you know Florida technically wouldn't blow out but look back in 2022 it was it was South Carol Ina it was Georgia I mean the losses are even in blowout fashion but in 2018 in one season Tennessee lost five games five games by 26 points or more so again there's a lot of numbers here and I'm throwing them out at you the biggest conclusion here is in the last 10 years of Tennessee football there's not been a whole lot of close games now there's been some don't get me wrong I mean let's let's remember you know back in the uh let's just go you know Year bye here for a second there have been some close contested football games um in 2023 the one that jumps out of me you know from the get-go was Texas a&n that was a that was a one point or that was a seven-point game KY is the one that I thought of was a Sixpoint game 33-27 those were tight-knit football games in 2022 there wasn't a whole lot of tightnit football games but if I can find it but the two that jump out to me really about 2022 and 2021 were the Pittsburgh games Tennessee lost by a touchdown to Pitt Pittsburgh at home in 2021 Tennessee won by a touchdown on the road in overtime at Pittsburgh in 2022 that was a really really close football game and of course the Florida win in 2022 ended up being a close football game there would have been another there should have been another blowout win on this n on this uh schedule in 2022 because Tennessee led by 17 points with four minutes to go in the ball game ended up winning by only five at 38 to 33 so there have been a couple of close games here and there you know Kentucky in 2021 I think that final score was like 45 42 that was a close one but overall your your your exiting analysis would be there's not been many close games been played at Tennessee and Conference games and really close games overall during the Josh hoppel era but there's been more wins with Josh hpel than there's been losses and that does not mean if you go to nean stadium and pay all this money and sacrifice your time and embrace the Heat and all that and and you know you see Tennessee win by 50 you're not pleased and you're not singing Rocky Top leaving the stadium cuz I'm sure you are but that's a big win who doesn't want to see your your favorite team just Pummel the team over there but in terms of Highly contested football games there's there's nail BS there's not been many throughout Tennessee's tenure um of course Alabama Was Won in 2022 we know how that game went you know winning on a walk-off field goal there and at one point in time you thought Tennessee had blown it in the fourth quarter with that scoop and score by Dallas Turner was it so I don't know I maybe maybe the this was too number driven maybe you're just sitting here listening or watching saying okay so what who cares I found that super interesting that in the last 10 years and specifically in the Josh Hy a when you look at every single game he's played 27 of the 39 games have ended in blowouts one way or the other one way or the other under Josh hpel there has only been there has only been 12 games in the Josh hpel era that have not been considered blowouts one way or the other meaning the margin of victory was 16 points or less truly incredible um I thought this was really really interesting so here's the more blowout wins here's the more wins in general don't matter how you get them doesn't matter how they come a win is a win is a win my my uh you know coach in college Ken Sparks one time we played like crap on the road at Rome Georgia shout out shorter and shorter was not good and we were very good and we played like crap we only won by like a touchdown or whatever and people were upset in the locker room and he said hey don't ever apologize for a win don't especially on the road don't ever apologize for the win so doesn't matter if you get it in blowout fashion or if you you scrape by by you know in a nailbiter a wins a wins a win I'm looking forward to more wins for Josh hypo in 2024 so hope you enjoyed that art hope you enjoyed that conversation again stemming from a CBS sports article from Tom forelli I thought it was really really cool and um hope you guys liked it on tomorrow show Big Show coming up player draft Tennessee football player draft me and Boogie Bentley of talking balls we're going to alternate picks whose team is going to be better when it's all said and done you every dayers you've you've probably caught one of these episodes the last couple years it happens tomorrow right here on lockon vs appreciate you guys for being here tell your friends about this show if you enjoy it um it will be your number one stop for anything you need to know about Tennessee football and recruiting um should have some recruiting news this weekend as well so one way or the other so um you know this is this is your spot and yeah you don't want to miss anything it's every weekday morning wherever you get your podcast download us subscribe to us help us out let's grow the show appreciate you as always we'll talk again tomorrow this is lock down balls [Music]