Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics (9-21-22) Game Preview and MLB Expert Predictions

Intro foreign Seattle and Oakland the A's playing apps for absolutely nothing Seattle um playing for their playoff lives here as we know Robbie Ray going on the hill for the Mariners and James caprillion for the A's today Seattle a big road favorite 210 and we're seeing this no matter who the opponent is against the A's right now total is seven and a minus 120 towards the over in this game base winner what do you like and why well I love the Mariners you guys know that and I think what's important about this game is we talked on the show yesterday about j-rod being in the lineup and so he was in the lineup yesterday so I think that's a good sign I've got the thing priced at minus 391. I'm pretty high on Ray I've got him 20th in baseball by my ratings he's a 77 base winner number 23 percent better than average and I think caprillion's putting the crap in in the caprillion uh he's a 131 31 percent worse than average you know one of the things outside of the modeling of this which indicates a strong play on Seattle I thought was interesting in the breakdown is amongst major league pitchers who have qualified enough Innings to qualify uh for leaderboard Robbie Ray leads the the major leagues in uh he's number two behind Dylan cease rather in in use of his slider and the Seattle Bullpen uses the slider Slider Breakdown tops in in baseball so you've got a guy who is second amongst starters in slider usage you've got the top team in baseball from a relief standpoint in slider usage against an offense that is the worst from a linear weight standpoint I'm not going to get into linear weights if you guys want to check that out it's a really good I know it's really hard for even me to explain but it's a really good measure of how individuals or teams do versus a particular pitch and Oakland is worse in baseball in linear weights versus the slider they're minus 71.3 runs and Detroit's the second worst and they're only minus three or they're minus 38 runs so that's like it's like a huge difference in how this Oakland team is handling the slider against heavy slider usage guys and I think that that kind of like tops tops it all off outside of the model I think that's a that's a that's an interesting number when you're taking a look look at this game WKRP Scott why don't I have a flashback to WKRP when base winners talking about caprillion that's great I I I'm trying to think and there's got to be something there I'm missing and I'm a big WKRP fan no I'm just saying when he's talking about you know you know he's crap or KR you know I was going more with the initials there so that that's all you know yeah I was thinking carp you know so I know right yeah but uh but anyway I I get a little you know I love basewater man because I gotta tell you over the course of the time I've been on the show which goes back to Mid early June that he says things that I I learned I actually learned after all these years of betting baseball and handicapping baseball certain things that maybe I didn't look deeply enough into you know before so I love the analysis although I started getting like cold sweats because he started talking linear and all that and I haven't gotten that kind of a feeling since I was a high school senior and I was taking physics and by the way I still remember the teacher's name his name was Fred Crowe and uh anyway so I'm set it up look I'm thinking Whoa man I'm starting to get flashbacks and it wasn't good you know so anyway I was glad he skipped the linear analysis but I can't wait to read about it because you know what I do what I what basically order throws this stuff out it's like within 15 minutes after the show I'm online and I'm checking out some of that stuff so I love it man I love listening to this guy I've been listening to him for a while on uh on the morning Beason Show when he makes his appearances it's great stuff folks check out base winners information because when you pile that on everything else that you have I mean you can find some real nice spots along the way he and I have a different approach to a certain extent we use a lot of the same a lot of common things that we look for in metrics but when we both are able to combine it's done pretty well this year I believe and I haven't really kept track other than in my mind and sometimes you think okay well I've done better than I have but I'm telling you what when we light up it seems to work pretty good on our Styles I lean towards Seattle having said all of that I'll keep the analysis short but I lean towards Seattle I had them last night and I laid the Run line with them and they stunk it up at the plate and one of the reasons I jumped on them is because j-rod was in the lineup excuse me and then he went over four so they didn't get their normal stuff out of the top of the lineup Mark and I talked about the injuries to this team on Monday's show you know Suarez getting injured last week j-rod with the back issues so right now as of the top of the show when we started I double checked and j-rod's not listed on an injury list he's not listed as questionable or probable or anything like that so you would think you would play but just check out the lineups before you get involved in this game Seattle you know they've lost four or five to the angels at A's 16 runs scored and six of the last seven games if you toss out the one outlier uh over that time span which was against the Angels the other day but I would I would keep an eye on j-rod see if he's going to be in this game he probably will and if he does Play It's the the meriters are nothing for me in this game Base Winner okay let's lock base winner down for play in this game on the Seattle Mariner side in this one he will take Seattle he's going to put it part of a parlay second leg of the parlay coming up and uh From This Moment forward guys we will refer to him as Professor base winner there you go yeah like like if you thank you Scott I appreciate all I think you're an awesome handicapper too and TC you know we have different styles but you're a great handicapper as well the proof's in the pudding that's for sure and uh you know I enjoy doing this show with both of you guys because you said you learned something every day well I learned something too so I think that there's there's there's room in everybody's Outro brain to learn from other people and to respect the way other people handicap as well so I I really appreciate that guys and and it's it's it's been fun Scott since you've joined the show it's I've I've I've had nothing but but good times and and I've actually learned stuff from you like you you go through the lineups you you know first first two times through the lineups that's great for first five innings stuff so I think that's something that you have to be doing that honestly I haven't I haven't done so like when you when when you're able to pick uh information from other people I think that makes you a better handicapper I agree there we go we're here to educate inform and entertain that's what we're here for and I think we uh we check all the boxes with that so good luck base winner on your play with the Seattle Mariners tonight let's take that over to the second leg of his parlay and that's Arizona and the Dodgers [Music] [Music]