Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs (9-3-24) MLB Game Predictions, Picks and Best Bets

[Music] at 955 956 it's Paul SK day for the Pirates here at minus1 127 Kyle Hendrick filling in for Justin steel shout out to whoever was messaging me last night about this as well I know they messaged you as well Corby about steel getting pulled last night we appreciate yeah Joe cool we appreciate you Joe cool uh so Kyle Hendrick now and the Cubs at plus 117 and the total of with some juice to the over at minus 120 beat up I did this as a late ad uh they had a pitching change out in St Louis kind of threw off my morning here I ended up taking the Pirates double results at plus 130 I took the Pirates yesterday they did win the game didn't get it done early I expect them to be able to get it done early against Hendrick and I expect skin to be able to get through this lineup here uh give me the Pirates am I being too chalky today if this feels like one of the chalki plays I've had in like two months no I I think you know based on the numbers that are I guess readily available well they all they all are readily available because we're using him we're pulling him off of fan graphs but I think there's a hidden number in this that's that's concerning to me but first of all I will say that I have this thing priced at minus 265 for Pittsburgh that's including the Pittsburg Bullpen which is 14th in baseball and the Pittsburgh offense that's 19th in baseball and why do I have it priced like that well I've got SK ranked number four in baseball uh he's got a run suppression number that's almost 50% and that's based on the last 10 median strikeout percentage walk percentage ground ball rate numbers I really like and are pretty stable uh and if you look at the strikeout rate he's number two on the board uh only behind uh Carlos rodone rodone has been Ro yes rone has been R do uh he is 32 point 32.8 strikeout percentage raw uh over the last 10 that's a median number Kyle so he's number one on the board and anyway number two is is skiing but what's concerning and this sale has okay sale is in the 17th percentile this is Stuff Plus as measured by youo SAS at the a athletic takes it 11 different pitch inputs movement velocity I don't know what the hell el else they do but 11 like really like key components of what what is stuff and I like the number I like to use it when I'm trying to decide whether to narrow a play down to the basement of parlay or not and what's concerning is SK stuff plus is in the lower half of Major League Baseball 32nd percentile over the last 30 days and if I remember correctly he was in the top quartile when he first came into the league so there's something maybe that's missing there in the last couple starts I know he was believe below League average the last time even saying that uh I would if you have to play it uh I'm going to play it I'm going to put it in uh I'm I have four parlays today on the on the card I'm going to put it in a parlay with the Dodgers another concerning pitcher with ber but the components would indicate that that's a good play Kyle I I I would I would play the the the Pirates here if if I had to play the game and well I'm going to play it I'm going to put it out on the parlay I I gotta tell you I'm stunned to sort of hear that about rhon I I I just can't believe that it's wild to me I'm looking at a strikeouts the last five games eight five five six and eight just got shilled by wild to me wild to me Carlos Ron Corby what do you think about this one here am I going to chalk here with is skes going to fall off and lose to the Cubs or am I getting a good price here at Plus 30 on the double result yeah I think it's uh it's the side to be on shout out Joe cool like at the end of the day it's it's really hard to beat sports betting markets like the closer you get to game time um and overnight getting like little tidbits of information like how Joe shout us out like uh it was a I think it was a beat riter for the Cubs it said steel has elbow inflammation KY Hendricks will be starting when he messaged us I instantly went looked every book still had uh steel up so you're getting steel price with C Hendrick's p you can click off action action bet us doesn't even uh doesn't even offer the pitchers it's just action action which if you're on your p's and q's that's one of the best things you could ever ask for so I sit on a pirates plus 105 from last night shout out Joe cool I will gladly take that uh right now it's 120 basically in Market it it's still Pirates or nothing for me like we just saw K Hendricks get absolutely obliterated by this team the only worry is Kyle Hendrick gives up fly balls that's the type of pitcher he is and uh the weather indicates that it's not going to be a lot of runs so I would imagine it's blowing in pretty hard so maybe it's a good spot for KY Hendrick but I'm not buying it um I don't think he's a good picture so I don't mind too much I back Paul skes cladly yeah for purposes of the show I'm I'm taking the Pirates here I'm gonna back I think it's our first time backing Paul SK as a double result here I'm going to take it at plus 130 before we move on to our next games I'd like to ask you guys please hit that like button we certainly appreciate you guys it helps us more than you know don't forget to hit the Subscribe button if you haven't done so my Ferrar in the chat box says love watching your show every day at work you guys always make my day better keep up the great work be dub K Corin we appreciate you Mike Ferrar thank you very much of course don't forget once you get your bets head over to bet us tv.com jooin to get in the action and cheers to all yes I am drinking a beer this morning it was a long golf day we had some car girls and I was frustrated with the with the lines this morning I think I'm going to do another three-day fast I don't know there's lots of this going on in my head my son's telling me he's moving to Arizona out in BDubs country he wants to move to Arizona and work at a casino or something like what about college I don't know there's a lot of going on here but we appreciate you guys don't forget to hit the like button all that good stuff again I'm locking in the Pirates double result here at plus 130 let's [Music] ah [Music]