Utilization Predictions for Fantasy Football in 2024 | Backfield Leaders, Sleeper Candidates & More!

[Music] what go [Music] w [Music] [Music] look [Music] hello and welcome to the fantasy live show happy Tuesday and oh my gosh week one everybody we have made it it is truly a great day to be great and I'm your host Ian hardit here to help you guys you know hopefully finally win those fantasy championships get off on the right foot because the drafts are mostly in the books at this point and of course the man by my side helping us all accomplish his task the one the only Dwayne the Rock McFarland Dwayne happy week one what's up man happy week one I feel like I just saw you oh that's right because we were up late drafting two more just trying to squeeze in two more fantasy squads last night over on realtime Sports so yeah I I feel like we kind of have brain meld at this point so we'll see if we have any any uh differing opinions this morning I'm at 37 manage leagues this year which again apologies to my family and friends what's your number DNE I am below that um like 23 24 I would say no no no I'm over that I'm I'm probably like at 25 25 certain number are good to lie about in your lives and I think the number of fantasy leagues you're in is probably one of them so I'm going to put that one down there a little bit when I'm telling the rest of the fan but yeah either way guys lot to talk about today some news we got some pre utilization questions going on again Loaded jam-pack show but first a quick word on Fantasy Life plus guys Fantasy Life plus we've helped you get your drafts in the right spot but now we're also here to help you on a week toe basis with Waiver Wires with player rankings with those pesky start set decisions all that and so much more at your fingertips and has made as easy as possible with Fantasy Life plus so check it out again for the low cost of freaking under $10 a month even for our tier 2 package under $40 a year for our tier one so not trying to break your bank just trying to help you hopefully break your friends and families Banks as you go win those fantasy championships so Fantasy Life plus check it out all right Dwayne haven't been together since Friday so we've had quite a bit of news go down over Labor Day weekend primarily a little bit a shake up in the Chiefs backfield we do have Clyde ERS aair now on the NFI list he is cons continuing to deal with some of that PTSD so get better soon Clyde Edwards hair but now Dwayne we do have some new competition emerging in the form of X Bengals and Broncos running back SJ Peron getting an awful lot of hype in the fantasy streets so how do you see this committee looking with Isaiah Pacho as a starter perine now in there presumably as the rb2 and preseason Superstar Carson steel yeah I think when we look at PCO like I've not changed anything um I've seen some people I respect in the industry like really worried about pet Ryan but but here's the thing Clyde Edwards Air could do all the things that they're going to ask perine to do so I was already giving some of that work to Edward theair now I've just essentially swapped in samaji perine per R's really good Ian on third down and long he's a guy you can bring in he's going to pick up the blitz he's going to know his assignments I wouldn't doubt it at all if they pull peo off the field and give those snaps to samaj py but guess what folks you're mostly blocking in that situation it's long down and distance you got man coverage you're getting a blitz the running back's not catching a ball like they are they are blocking they are the last resort uh as far as getting a Target in that situation what we'll need to monitor though is whether or not samaji pan takes over the two-minute offense away from Isaiah Pacho because that does matter that's that's your drive at the end of the half or at the end of a game you're trying to get in a field goal position or you're trying to get down and score points what's the defense doing they're putting their safeties deep they're not letting you hit a big pass especially with the team like the Chiefs they're going to be trying to take that away knowing that you got Xavier worthy eventually we get Maris Brown back in the picture they're going to be trying to stop that big play and so that can equal a lot of checkdowns to whoever's on the field so that's the one thing we're gonna have to monitor I think there is some slight risk there because samaji peron's been really good in that role in the past Clyde Edwards Air has been functional in that role I would say per ry's been better than C so we'll have to watch that one but for now I'm trying not to overreact I thought that Pacho showed you know the ability to do those sort of things again fine they wanted take some hits off of his body against a Blitzer we're okay with that in fantasy yeah and look I understand the idea that oh look at what Jared McKinnon was able to do over these few years now he's presumably bringing Peron to that role but I'm with you Dwayne to me this feels far more like C Insurance than necessarily bringing in a guy that is going to be taking all these touches away from Isaiah Pacho so yeah everyone as much as we would love for every single NFL depart to just have one running back and nobody else to deal with they do need to fill out that death and for samaj per he is is someone they can trust in those you know long down distance situations Dwayne you mentioned the two minute numbers I mean my God last year Peron NFL high 30 receptions and 240 receiving yards with under two minutes on the clock I mean the next closest running back was 15 catches and 142 yards so as much as we can cite you know perin's pass blocking and hey he did lead all running backs and yards per route run last year if you do take away some of those easier checkdown deep safety two-minute situations that yards per route run number goes down to 1.59 glad ever air just below him at 1.53 so yes perine is good but you know what when he can't make the roster for maybe one of the worst offenses in football in Denver not thinking he's exactly going to be jacking you know Isaiah Poo's job I say that Joan only for Twitter to absolutely melt down if Pon takes the first snap here on Thursday night so we'll see what happens we actually you know Dwayne we haven't been drafting poo in round two so I'm not trying to say that he's you know completely golden but again for me far more C you know Insurance than anything here yeah so this weekend I had Pacho fall to me in round four of a draft because of this news and so I finally got a Peko share to your point I haven't been taking him in round two so it worked out from that perspective I will say we've already been cautious with Pacho so maybe that's why like we like him but we've also been a little bit cautious which we've said hey he's going in round two of fantasy drafts we like him in round three so we were already kind of baking some of this stuff in so not to repeat myself here but I kind of see C's role very similar to what samaj Peron is going to be so if you loved Pacho before I don't think there's enough here to suddenly just be out on him there's always been the risk that he wouldn't get all the passing down work that's always been a risk last year when him and C C played in games together guess who got the passing n work C so we were already kind of projecting that other big news out him from the weekend is while there are a lot of happy you know hold out guys who have now gotten their new contracts Jamar Chase is not one of them still not practicing Dwayne and we are now officially in game week so we got the Patriots in week one a big game in Arrowhead for the Bengals in week two Jamar Chase right now for anyone else out there Dwayne that hasn't completed their fantasy draft yet you still comfortable taking them as a top eight pick I think the closer we get like the more you're just going to move him down in tiebreakers right so I mean we've already said that he was outside the top six based on this information which means you're taking him after Justin Jefferson at this point um then you've got a mon ra St Brown on the list Ian like I'm fine just taking a man ra do I think Jamar Chase if fully healthy is like the player with the higher ceiling than a monra yeah but I mean a monra could also beat Justin Jefferson in any healthy year so I think once you get to that situation I'm leaning to the sun god at this point over Jamar Chase and then I think is where it gets interesting and this is where I'd like your thoughts because you get to AJ Brown and then you get to Garrett Wilson and so if you're thinking receiver and that you might be thinking JT as well you might be thinking Jonathan Taylor he's pre- locked into a full workload this season so if you're thinking him of him at the end of round one those are really the three players for me where it gets really interesting so I could I could go Garrett Wilson I honestly could like I am I'm a gambler though I'm probably taking Chase but I have gamble in me I I'm probably taking Chase over am man ra St brown but it all depends on how you want to approach your fantasy season and what makes you the most comfortable and so if you don't like that uncertainty in week one like I'm the kind of guy like hey fine if you guys want to pass him once he's on the field in week three I'll take what I get but again there's other really good players there and I've already written up in my B predictions Garrett Wilson having the skill set to be the wide receiver one overall in fantasy football so I don't blame anyone that takes Wilson how about you it's certainly not egregious that said Joan I was in one of my OG home leagues over this weekend had the chance I believe at like the 110 in the first round and yeah I was fine taking Jamar Chase still at that point so certainly you know not going to fault anyone for those tiebreaker situations but certainly wouldn't also have the guy on my do not draft list because as we've seen with brand n as we've seen with every single player that's has been threatening a hold out the situation usually gets resolved so I understand the history with the Bengals being a bit more on the cheaper side of the NFL franchises but at the same time everyone there still is time before week one to get done and just when it comes down to it Dwayne the most realistic scenario for me is Jamar Chase getting his game checks once it does come time to go out there and suit up so could be annoying I wish he was already practicing but for what it's worth He has still been attending all the practices just again waiting until he gets paid to actually get their shoulder pads on so last quick thing here Dwayne if we do actually see Jamar chase out of the picture is that automatically making T Higgins a wide receiver one top 12 ahead of this week one matchup against New England I mean he's a borderline wide receiver one yeah if Jamar chases out we've seen it in these games without Chase T Higgins has is you know struggled over the last couple years when you have Chase on the field to really you know find a way to still shine but he has shown in those games without chase that Joe burrow is very willing to go to him and and Joe burrow is just one of these guys like he can he can Vibe with anybody if they're skilled so yeah I would say he Higgins would be a borderline wide receiver one I have a question for you hard um what would you put the percentage chance at that Jamar Chase misses over four games if you were if you you know girl scout sers to the girl to the door you got to give an answer you know your life is on the line here zero I think he misses at the absolute most one and I'd say even I think there's like a 75% chance he's going to be out there this Sunday how about you yeah yeah I'm the same way just the game checks cost so much and he still has two years left on the deal so like he definitely can't press it really far into the season just because he wants his contract you know to toll he wants to be able to get credit for this season so that he actually can be in his fifth year of his deal otherwise if not the Bengals are going to control two more years so theoretically like he could push that all the way to the Limit but it would be really costly for him now we have no clue like does his agent come to him and say man I got you like I'll C we'll cover that out of our firm because we're gonna make it at some point like that that also can't be feasible for the agent even if he signs a deal Justin Jefferson size like once you start adding up what those game checks are going to come to and I understand the rebuttal oh but guys you know Jamar Chase skipped an entire season at LSU it was also the co season and also Joe Burl had left and also he had all the agents in the world telling him you're going to be a top five pick even if you don't play another colleg of snap so slightly different situations uh I think we can different math equation there guys yeah exactly you know one thing versus the other X versus y but yeah Jamar Chase long story short please get that contract signed get out there and keep on scoring fantasy points guys quick little rapid recap again for the rest of some fantasy news over the weekend first of all the other 49ers hold out Trent Williams reportedly has signed an extension or is about to should be out there for Monday night's matchup against the Jets so all of a sudden the 49ers offense all parties on Deck looking strong per usual Mars Brown the only player missing from Chiefs practice Andy Reid has already come out and told us he is likely to miss week one but with that shoulder injury hopefully back in week two or week three before too long either way also no Raven starters on the injury report good news in particular from Mark Andrews who obviously had that car crash a couple cple weeks ago he was back on the practice field last Friday so all hands on deck for that exciting Thursday night matchup Tyreek Hils say is 100% healthy entering week one and head coach Mike McDaniel confirmed both Tyreek and jayen Wadd are good to go no setbacks again more good news as we get ahead into week one also sounds like jir Gibbs and that hamstring injury not a concern per head coach Dan Campbell one concern though is rookie 49ers wide receiver Ricky parasol as you guys have you know inevitably already heard he did get shot over the weekend and he's now on the non-f football injury list so going to be missing at least four games here get better soon Ricky I mean incredibly scary situation there so luckily you know as good as you can be after getting shot he is you know stable and doing better so get better soon Ricky Maron Lloyd also back at practice with that hamstring injury even if he's still limited again good news that he was able to avoid the pup list at all starts the season uh the Colts worked out Leonard forette we'll see what happens there Ravens brought back former Pro Bowl quarterback Tyler Huntley after he got cut from the Browns fre agent wide receiver Michael Thomas suspended one game yeah he's a free agent so you weren't exactly you know even considering playing him anyway but always funny when that happens also Russell Wilson and Caleb Williams named Team captains and the most relevant news overall the Seahawks are rocking their Bea youtiful 90s era Throwbacks in week one one of the hottest throwback alternate uniforms in the game so love seeing that and love seeing some of the things that are good friends over at Paramount Plus have G on as well guys you won't miss a minute of the action when you stream the NFL on CBS live on Paramount plus stream every local National and postseason NFL game on CBS live all the way through the AFC Championship on Paramount plus download Paramount plus today to start your free trial and unlock a season of epic moments including all of your local week one games only at Paramount plus oh yeah we shishan presented by Mike's Hard lemonade now join this time next week we're going to have have a lot of opportunities to talk about some of the tilting near Miss shees caliber moments that go on over the course of a weekend but obviously no football to breakdown just yet but still when we're you know having to relive our fantasy nightmares we do actually learn some stuff from them I'm not just trying to piss off everyone so want to go through another one of the leaderboards and just kind of describe again some of the takeaways from it specifically unrealized air yards so for those that have never heard of this statistic when we're talking about air yards first of all that is just a distance from a quarterback throwing it to a wide receiver that the ball travels in the air unrealized air yards is just when we're measuring again that distance from a quarterback throwing the ball to a wide receiver on incomplete targets only so when we see someone catch only two of nine targets for 20 yards we look at that box score and we say well that wasn't anything to write home about but guess what if they were open for six bombs you know downfield and they have 200 plus unrealized air yards I think a one time even got over 300 when he had jamus out there again it just helps show us that in future weeks they have the opportunity so with a bit more you know luck or even just Chemistry Between the quarterback and wide receiver better things could be on the horizon down the road so looking at last year's leaderboard Dwayne for most unrealized air yards five wide receivers had over a thousand in first place was DeAndre Hopkins right behind him Chris alive Devonte Adams Calvin Ridley and Garrett Wilson rounding out the top five then after those guys we had Mike Evans Stefon Diggs Terry McLaren AJ Brown and DK meaf rounding out the top 10 so I want to stress it's not all on the quarterback again a drop is going to count the same here just as you know an overthrown deep ball and everything but still I would say generally join a lot of these guys we can point you know the finger a little bit more at the quarterback at hand luckily though five of these players do in fact have a new quarterback Devonte Adams Calvin Ridley Garrett Wilson Stefan Diggs and Terry McLaren so want to focus a bit more on these guys and starting off Dwayne someone that I don't think you and I have drafted once but man oh man should he still get a lot of targets Devonte Adams overall confidence level and Gardener menu may be giving Devonte a better experience than what we saw last year from Jimmy G and Aiden oconnell not really that high I kind of feel like it's the same thing that we already had um you know we have seen a season where Garder menu almost threw for 250 yards per game you know back in his early days when we had menu Mania in Jacksonville so I'm not saying that it's not maybe lurking somewhere underneath the surface there um I think he's definitely a better you know manager of the pocket than Jimmy G he's willing to stand in there and buy that one extra beat and take a hit something that Jimmy G really you know falling off the back foot like Jimmy G is like trying to get the hell out of there so I don't think you're have to worry about that so maybe there's a slight advantage and and we can say you had another player like that in Aiden oconnell last year and once he got in the game and was also willing to do that Aiden ell took his fair fair share of big hits he was delivering the ball to Devonte Adams so if you look at those splits with Aiden oconnell versus what you had earlier in the season with Jimmy Garoppolo it was pretty good with Aiden oconnell considering you had an offense that we were basically praying like they could throw for over 200 yards in a game and you had Devonte Adams playing hurt towards the end of the year so yeah I think that there's there's some potential here it's not one that I'm going to get overly excited about though because it it's it's look we like Gardner muu he's an NFL starting quarterback but he's not exactly a guy that like if we were starting a franchise today we would be thinking of as anything more than a backup for our roster last year if you want to look at completion percentage overexp expected among 32 qualified quarterbacks the two worst Aiden oconnell and yes Gardner menu so I know he had the Colts you know very close to getting in the playoffs they were able to still be a top 10 scoring offense not saying he can't you know be a top 30 NFL quarterback but certainly think at this point we know he is a bit closer to 30 than number one Dwayne Calvin Ridley someone who you know again maybe had a bit more of this problem going to himself with the drops that we saw from Trevor Lawrence now residing in Tennessee 92 million reasons why the Titans should be feeding him the football that said our number one wide receiver on the unrealized air yards leader board was DeAndre Hopkins and yeah now we have Calvin Ridley in town as well so the will Lis experience a lot of fun to watch for better and let's face it mostly worse at least through one year B on rley potentially having you know the sort of season that many expecting them to have last year in his first season back from the gambling suspension yeah I think his unrealized air yards could actually go up you know with Will Levis but the point being the reason why air yards matter and why we care about them you did a great job of explaining you know what they are is they correlate highly to Future fantasy points the next season they're one of our best indicators so they tell us about intent the intent of of the quarterback to try to get the ball to a certain player and typically quarterbacks try to get the ball to their best players and if you don't have a good player on your team guess what a quarterback does they just kind of spread it all around but we've seen with Calvin Ridley even whenever he's been on some of these other teams with pretty good wide receivers he he does come down with some good air yard numbers now he's never really held up in offense is where he's had another major uh where he's had major competition for targets overall so it's kind of weird like when you go back and you look at his history like has it just been unluck or is there something really with his skill set there that's holding him back because think back to when he had Julio Jones on his team and now he was a rookie at that point you know he was he was okay like he had some definite flashes but until Julio left he didn't really have that chance to be a superstar and then we saw it later in his career even whenever he had that opportunity in Atlanta now he got hurt and he also had the year where he got suspended but after that going to Jacksonville when you had Christian Kirk in the lineup like he wasn't doing much it was after Christian Kirk left the lineup that he started doing something so my bigger concern here is what you just said that DeAndre Hopkins was also on this leaderboard and Hopkins has shown us multiple times in his career that it doesn't matter who's on the team he's typically going to get his targets now he's an older player he has a lot of red flags he's been dealing with injuries but last year he played all 17 games so I think both of these guys are going to have a lot of a yards it does all come back to the one common denominator that you mentioned you need a will Levis Improvement so similar to what we saw with Josh Allen whenever Josh Allen suddenly turned in from being this guy throwing into double covers to a fullback on a wheel route you know where we're like going what is happening here to turning into this player that could just you know hit all layers of the field and turn from like a 57% completion person player into someone completing 65% of their passes we rarely get that but we've got two examples in recent memory with Josh Allen and another one was Jaylen Herz who was not known for being a high accuracy player coming out of college and now he's pretty good in that department so Levis is going to have to take that kind of step forward and I don't think that we can realistically just say it's going to happen I think we have to lean more towards it not happening but we can't say it's totally out of the question Dwayne double covered fullback on a wheel route in overtime of a playoff game the Josh experience hell of a drug you know in the pre 20 years exactly uh I don't think we need to go into Garrett Wilson you know yes guys guess what going from Zack Wilson Aaron Rogers certainly feeling he's about to get a huge Improvement Case Closed good done there last one I want to go through is Stefon digs someone where again we've talked a lot about his first and second half splits and I'll say you know Bill's fans out there saw it as much as it was a more run first offense as much as Diggs might have had his drops or two yes we all saw that just beautiful bomb you know against the Chiefs that Diggs couldn't come down with there are some other examples man where Josh Allen was the one that was at fault I mean man Diggs put jayen Ramsey on absolute roller skates on a double move wide open for what should have been a 90 yard touchdown and like that week 14 or 15 game sadly though was overthrown so I know one of the things you did this offseason Dwayne amongst the many awesome articles what you know a more deeper analysis on wide receiver age Cliffs and how you found man coverage yards per route run was something that again helped show when actual imminent drop offs or potentially coming here with Stefon Diggs you know and having all these unrealized air yards were you still seeing him specifically against man coverage have the sort of elite numbers to think hey maybe in Houston he can still keep on keeping on as a fantasy football wide receiver one yeah he had a little bit of a dep in in in that data but it was still good like his his yards per route run were still good and the other thing with digs like if we were using this sort of data and I I I really like I I reference this like whenever I'm talking about these sort of data points they're not necessarily predictive they're just kind of like little things where you're like okay like this could be an indicator but it's not like the data so strong where we're like oh my God like if a player has this you have to be absolutely out on them I look at it as like it's one data point and multiple things that you're looking at and it's another thing that if they check negative or positive like it can help kind of lean you in one direction or the other but to your point Stefon Diggs looked like he still had game in that scenario and the other thing with Diggs is why I don't buy into this is is how would he be so good in the first half of last season in and suddenly what he hit an age cliff in the middle of a year and just became a bad player like if you had Stefon Diggs on your fantasy team to start last season here are the wide receiver finishes you got week one um was was uh wide receiver four then you had wide receiver 34 13 2 6 7 12 26 offense changes to a new coordinator 46 46 14 45 35 45 48 17 16 17 that includes your playoffs again those were his wide receiver finishes all you had in the first half of the year was a wide receiver littering the top 12 I am scared to death that I have not clicked on Stefon Diggs enough this off season I get it he's in a load of passing offense man this passing offense like if I'm putting odds down on the teams that can go for 5,000 yards passing and get to 40 plus touchdowns through the air number one's the Chiefs I think number two is probably the Houston Texans you might be able to contest that with Joe burrow if you've got Jamar Chase on the field always funny when Dwayne and I are Drafting and you guys do this as well you know you have a certain feeling about a guy but as soon as you don't get him on your team all of a sudden you're talking about the negatives with them and then you get someone later so we really wanted Patrick Mahomes in round five you know got sniped one pick before end up getting you know a falling CJ shroud in round nine and just immediately there I think Dwayne hit it with like a yeah why take myah homes in round five we can get you know exactly you know the same 5,000 yard guy all the way down there in round nine so in all seriousness though stoud and Company do have that upside we'll see if Diggs again can just hopefully get back to being the guide that we saw yeah in the first half of last season season uh final quick note on Terry McClaren and Jaden Daniels really can't stress how rough it was at times with Sam Howell I mean guys first 13 games of last year with Sam how Terry single game high in receiving yards was 90 and only scored two touchdowns when he got two drives which are Kobe brette in that Rams game 93 yards had a touchdown and got tackled at the one yard line another time so I know DJ Moore has been you know kind the poster child for that sick wide receiver dealing one back quarterback after another Terry McClaren truly not too far behind so please fantasy guys let Jaden Daniels finally give us a sort of wide receiver one season from Terry that we know he is capable of so all right guys good stuff there and again we'll have all sorts of you know finally relevant shees to be going over this time next week but first we're getting some utilization goodness and before that a quick word with our friends over at Mike's Hard Lemonade hey Fantasy Life fans let me ask you a question was your day hard enough for Mike's Hard Lemonade are you in a slow draft that just won't end where you one pick away from the perfect quarterback wide receiver stack but got sniped living the fantasy life is hard and Mike's Hard Lemonade is a reward for a hard-earned thirst reward yourself today go to www.m Mikes hard.com and find out where you can get Mike's nearest you hard days deserve a hard lemonade Dwayne similar to the shees goodness next week we're going to have all sorts of utilization takeaways from week one action before that I wanted to go through some potential surprises that again people might be seeing this time next week so first things first though with the utilization report the critically acclaimed world famous utilization report I should say what is it exactly and why is utilization so useful to fantasy football players of all shapes and sizes yeah so utilization really becomes super important like once the season gets here like when we're in the preseason we're projecting all these things like we are projecting the different roles to get to our projections which folks can check out over at Fantasy life.com but once we're in the season Ian we are in now fully focused on like volume like volume is absolute king and the preseason we're still waiting in well Talent they may not have the role at the beginning of the year it could take some time well now we're actually getting the real data telling us what the coaches are doing with these players and what we've done is we've gone back and we've researched all of the different roles you can have say for example with a running back Ian that's a great example sometimes you have running backs that are getting all the carries inside the 5 yard line well guess what touches are the most valuable for running backs inside the five because what are you going to do you're going to score touchdowns so if you get a chance to score six points whenever you get a carry obviously it's going to really blow up your expected fantasy points on those carries the other thing we've already talked about the two-minute offense is a very valuable role for running backs that's how you take you know a player like Christian mcaffrey that might be having a bad day defenses are playing deep coverage and suddenly on one drive he tacks on 10 points right before halftime in a PPR because he's the guy out there getting all those passes underneath the defense so we quantify all of the those different roles and what's really cool Ian is this year if you don't want to know all that you're like I don't care about all that Dwayne just tell me which one has the best role we are going to have a utilization score that takes all those things we wait them appropriately by each position so folks can understand those things you talk about with wide receiver guess what matters a lot uncatchable targets versus catchable targets un uncatchable air yards versus catchable air yards all of those things are baked into one number and what that will help you do is you can quickly see you know this player actually is playing like an A+ talent but like right now their fantasy performance is probably like a b or a c i want to go trade for that player that's the sort of thing that we're trying to use this information for or to find a player before your friends do on the waiver wire we may see a certain running backer receiver starting to trickle up this happened last year with Rashid rice it was one of our biggest waiver wire or trade CLA or trade uh proposal um takeaways that we have from the utilization report and what we saw in the data was that his route participation was slowly moving upward through the season he wasn't at a spot where you could put him in your lineup yet but when he was on the field his targets per route were Elite they were the best on the Chiefs behind only Travis Kelce so we told folks look guys he's eventually going to get into the full-time role there's not any other good receivers on this team and if we look at what he's doing on his per route basis that's going to make him a wide receiver one guess what rasid rice was for the last stretch of last year including the play the NFL playoffs he was a wide receiver one so that was a huge trade that you were able to go after based on the things that you find in the utilization report and with that do let's get into some of the you know predictions we have going in utilization ahead of 2024 you mentioned Christian mcaffrey really being the poster child of having fantastic utilization and by the way breaking news ESPN's Adam shter reports CMC is expected to practice on Tuesday despite having that calf injury so again weren't concerned about it but yeah good news that the reigning rb1 is going to be back there on the practice field but Dwayne maybe we could see a surprising rb1 level utilization Phenom and Giants running back Devin single ter really the artist known as motor could be out there playing more snaps than not crazier things have happened Dwayne Devin single ter could he again be one of the more surprising workhorses in FY here come week one yeah with single ter like look we've got Tyrone Tracy who the team drafted in the later rounds he was really more of a receiver for most of his college career so those of you familiar with the artist formerly Lo known as Antonio Gibson is what we would say um it's a similar profile to that like he's an explosive playmaker he could do some work on passing downs but he's a raw rookie so I do think out of the gate single Terry is going to be getting all of the work Ian I think we're talking about a guy that could have like a 75% snap share on week one we saw him show the ability to handle that sort of workload last season whenever the Texans really wanted to call on him now I will say with single Terry even though we think he's going to be he's going to have the workload to support like a low-end running back two fantasy you know that's where he'll probably rank in our fantasy ranks right there borderline running back two in week one I'm working on those today we have the risk right of it being a really bad offense and we also have the risk of offensive line issues so this doesn't erase everything but I do think he is one of the cheapest players that you can find out there that's going to be in a full-time role the key will be can he hold on to that Ian you know for the course of the season because we have seen teams in the past try to basically find other ways to to get their backs involved anytime we thought Deon single ter was really going to be in a lead role last year was the exception with the Texans down the down that for the stretch run they really did lean into Devin single ter but before that every time we thought like oh man this guy might actually be about to do it it was like oh no we're GNA give the ball to Zach Moss now so he's a guy we've got to be careful with but I definitely think for like the first month of the Season he's gonna have a really large workload I will say guys you start looking at the career numbers between Devin single ter and obviously the longtime Giants Workhorse RB saquon Barkley single ter hasn't beat and yes I have checked out the eight plus defenders in the Box it was saquon at 38% single ter at 28% I I'm fully aware that you know who's the better NFL Talent it's saquon Barkley who her defense is paying more attention to it is Sequon barkle but Dwayne if we can even get 90% of who saquin is in the form of single ter with the similar saquin role again that's where I think we're unearthing a bit of a fantasy gem here so last year the Giants actually tied the Buccaneers in terms of the highest percentage of games where they were willing to give one single running back at least 80% of the snaps and when you start going back in time to Deon single T's previous history with Brian dble and some of those years where again not exactly blowing up fantasy but at least playing the big majority of snaps and racking up 15 to 20 touches per game yeah wouldn't be shocked if we do see single ter going out there and hopefully giving you some solid utilization from someone that again you draft in the double digit rounds more times than not as it was all right join another running back someone who I've been about plenty he was one of my you know B calls top five player for next season James Conor will he hit 15 plus fantasy points per game again in 2024 because you know Dwayne not too much competition looking like is going on in Arizona right now yeah I mean 15.5 fantasy points per game last year 15.6 in 2022 and 15.1 in 2021 so James Connor like we don't think of him as one of these really you know explosive Playmakers like not going to give you a ton of highlight real runs but he is a guy Ian that like when you look up at the end of the season every year you're like you know he was an above average NFL Runner right and that that's what I would call him but he's really good in all facets of the game he's great as a receiver out of the backfield now he's not like a second level guy like our cmc's and you know Eckler and and guys like that but like he is someone that you can get to the ball get the ball to he's going to be able to do a little bit in the passing game as well so I think the big thing here is early season production I feel great about it's if he gets dinged up if he misses time and that door opens for Trey Benson who the team invested a third round pick in he is an explosive young back so right now like I've I've got Trey Benson getting around 25 26% you know of the rush share for this team and I've got you know a little over 60% going to a little bit under 60% right now for James Conor but what I'll say is last year 60 1% you know of the team's uh rushing attempts and he still had that 15.5 fantasy points per game so there's a chance this team actually gives a little bit more than I have Trey Benson projected for let's say they give him like 30% of the work and James Connor could still be you know right around that 55 to 58% giving the rest obviously to Kyler Murray who's going to get some of the designed rushing attempts as well he had 15% you know last season um over the over that last eight game stretch when he came back from an injury so even if Trey Benson takes a little bit more of the workload I think that James Conor where you're getting him relative to his prize and fantasy drafts right now I do think that he's going to pay off that that price tag and I do think in week one he's probably going to get even more of the work like I would be pretty surprised I mean anything could happen but I think week one like he's going to be a borderline running back one for me now if Trey Benson comes out and looks really good and takes some of that work that is the risk so another player I think looks really good early but I think as the season goes on I do think there's a little bit of risk with James Conor because of the younger play player he missed uh 10 games over the past three years but so did Derrick Henry so did Bree Hall CMC missed 11 kyen Williams has missed 12 in his two-year career Jonathan Taylor 13 Miss games over these past three seasons so yes Connor I'll admit a little bit more injury-prone quote unquote then you know your younger running backs out there but not the only guy dealing with these injuries and Dwayne as much as Benson could you know take on a larger role like that is a possibility I do think sometimes people go out there and they assume just because a player is going to get injured means they are going to you know missing the entire second half of the Year whereas with Conor we've seen him get hurt miss these three four we stretches and then come back like he's been there for every game of the fantasy playoffs over these past two years he's ripped off rb12 rb4 rb15 rb1 and then back toback rb4 fantasy finishes over these past two seasons when it's mattered most in the fantasy playoffs so just from a pure projection standpoint I mean this really is someone who when again you're looking at season long rankings versus where we're actually moving them up in the week one I mean Jo I know you're getting your rankings done today but he's got to be top 10 in terms of just raw week one projections right uh I don't know if he's top 10 but he's definitely he's in the top knock the door he yeah he's knocking on the door of running back one territory um for week one like I just did the projections this weekend so those are going live on the site um today I've got James Connor right now for week one like right around 60% of the team's rushing attempts like I'm playing at a tad cautious just because the Trey Benson thing but again like I I couldn't go give him 70% but I feel pretty good about 60% and if he gets that he's going to be a borderline running back one I do think he'll get all the work inside the 5 yard line I think he's going to get all the critical pass down work I think Trey Benson is going to come in and fill in for him like every third drive but when you get to those key snaps probably coming off the field for James Conor so again it's one of those deals where you'd love to see a 65% snap share but guys just so you know like 65% snapshare 70% for a running back is Elite it's phenomenal 60 % is really good that's typically where a lot of your running back ones reside in fact like the average NFL team their number one running back gets 57% of the carries right so just kind of keep that as context in your mind so when you hear something like James Conor man only getting nearly 60% of the carries that's not no that's really good when you hear beat reporters or you hear certain accounts are like oh you know I'm projecting like a 6040 they just throw that number out there like 6040 almost never happens like 60 60% above the NFL average uh for you know the teams that are out there so yeah with James Connor borderline running back one Ian love having Jo in charge of our projections which again another big advantage of subscribing to Fantasy Life plus if you're into that kind of thing so more utilization talk ahead everyone but first a quick word to our friends over at DraftKings hey everyone with the football season kicking off it is the perfect time to dive into the action with our partners over at DraftKings the number one place to bet on touchdowns and right now all new customers who bet $5 will instantly get $250 in bonus bets and one month of NFL Plus premium on us that is something we can all celebrate download the draftking Sportsbook app today and sign up using our promo code Fantasy Life the crown is yours and stay in on the action use your $250 in bonus bets to bet anytime touchdowns on DraftKings DraftKings is the place to bet touchdowns the sports betting is not yet available in your state don't worry you can still join in on all the fun with DraftKings daily fantasy and have a shot to win cash prize download draing Sportsbook app now new customers use our promo code Fantasy Life and bet just $5 on any wager to get $250 back in bonus bets instantly and that handy dandy one month of NFL Plus premium on us that's promo code Fantasy Life only at draft King Sportsbook the crown is yours all right Dwayne let's talk a you know a certain wide receiver who I know we have both drafted quite a bit this offseason we drafted them quite a bit last offseason the one before that every single year and lo and behold we can not stop drafting Deontay Johnson so looking at Deonte new year new Deonte and oh yeah new offense and new quarterback too are you thinking we're about to see Deontay get an elite level Target share and could he be someone where again you've drafted him as almost a borderline wide receiver three on more fancy providers than not but hey if we get through week one and all of a sudden we see 10 11 12 targets could be someone that is in you know our top 15 at the position sooner rather than later yeah I mean Deontay Johnson is like the Moneyball meme right you know the idea of oh you just want players that get on base like I'm sitting here I'm talking to you you're Billy I'm like Billy the guy like he has a borderline wide receiver one target Shar he has a wide receiver one air yard Shar this we're talking about this guy over the last three years we're talking about a player that can get open underneath intermediate he might actually be able to go deep guess what though his one flaw he has not had a good quarterback by the time he got to Ben rothberger he was playing with someone that could I mean Ben just couldn't get the ball downfield like he used to be able to Dost El Deontay Johnson exactly post elbow surgery Ben then we have the situation where we go to Kenny picket you had Mason Rudolph in the lineup now I get it folks are looking at and they're like yeah and now you have Bryce young well Bryce young was the number one pick overall and we have seen quarterbacks of his you know skill set actually improve drastically in year two when the team has gone out and made the sort of additions that we have seen the Carolina Panthers do which by the way hat tip to them because not like they had a ton of draft Capital they gave away a lot to go get Bryce young they went and got Xavier Legette in round one obviously they signed Deontay Johnson they upgraded their guards on the interior of the offensive line they added Jonathan Brooks who eventually be getting on the field so this is just an offense that's going to look a lot different right we've got Canales coming over so this is going to be a whole new scheme I do love Deontay Johnson this season Ian I think he is a sneaky candidate to have 150 to 160 Targets in fantasy land and if Bryce Young even just becomes below average guys not saying he's got to suddenly turn into this Elite player which it that's still in his range of outcomes as well if he just turns into a below average Quarterback Deontay Johnson is going to be a mid-range wide receiver too very quickly and people are going to realize the error in their ways Ian letting this man fall so far in fantasy drafts he does have that wide receiver eight season to his name on a pro game basis so it's not like we haven't seen the wide receiver one level upside and it to your point Dwayne 124 Target projection and that honestly feels conservative which is a good thing I mean it is a good thing you're doing our projections not me cuz we would be going way more you know like 1 yeah I'd be like well you know who cares has Happ a lot Deontay Johnson out here but again even that number is 18th among wide receivers right there with Cooper cup orir rice and Nico Collins three guys who certainly are going well ahead of Deontay in fantasy drafts of all shapes and sizes so Deontay Johnson someone you can get as your wide receiver four or five often enough really really liking what we could see from him in 2024 and hopefully Beyond Dwayne let's talk about a tight end who you know I don't know about you but I haven't exactly made the biggest habit of drafting and it's not so much about him we just you know like really getting into the more Elite onesies you know the Mark Andrews or TR M BR the Kyle Pitts of the world but Evan Ingram do you think he could have sneaky top three upside because man you started looking at the numbers last year and 143 targets for a tight end you don't exactly see that every day yeah so I I I really like Evan Ingram I think he is a talented player obviously he was a first round NFL draft pick uh Giants do you guys still need a tight end because like you let one go that's like sitting over here with Jacksonville now we do have Doug Peterson as you like to call him the tight end Whisperer this is a guy that you know has definitely unlocked some potential but at the same time I think he also just knows how to get good tight ends on his team I mean he had Zack her and freaking Dallas GD before he had two of them you know in Philly so it's probably also just Doug Peterson saying hey guys talking to the GM I'd like to have a good tight end on my team because I want to feature them in my passing attack so the one challenge I have with Evan Ingram you know Ian last year I mean it really was good like if you look at it just pure pure numbers like overall 8.2 targets per game last season that is really fantastic for a tight end but a lot of it happened once Christian Kirk was out of the lineup and that is the main thing that really gets me concerned so if we look at his Target shares once we got to week 13 with Christian Kirk gone 24% 27% 14% And man he poured it on week 16 17 and 18 36% 29% and 33% so here's the thing there's positives and there's negatives to this the positive is like once the other player was off the field Evan Ingram was good enough to still go get all of those targets because guess what the defense also knows this guys they're now without Christian Kirk they don't have to defend him the replacement player for Christian Kirk is not as good and he was still able to go earn those targets so that tells us that that Evan Ingram does have the talent that we're looking for the challenge is now we're going to have Christian Kirk in the lineup on week one and they frequent the same area of the field they're both guys that work in the intermediate middle portion of the field so they're essentially battling each other for targets and quite often Trevor Lo Trevor Lawrence is going to be reading the way that those Defenders are playing them to decide which guy he's throwing to now we do have Calvin Ridley gone we just talked about Calvin Ridley earlier Calvin Ridley did a really nice job last year even though it was SP I fantasy production he still earned his targets so there's a chance Brian Thomas Jr as much as we love him like if Brian Thomas Jr comes out and does everything Calvin Ridley did last year I think we would both say that's a very successful rookie campaign Ian but there's a chance he doesn't so if Brian Thomas Jr can't do what Calvin Ridley was doing there is still a potential upside to this thing getting narrowed down more to really two guys because Gabe Davis we know look Gabe Davis NFL player can stretch the field but we know he's not going to earn a lot of targets guys he just never has he already had his chance Buffalo needed him to do that and he was not able to turn into that caliber of player so I think it comes down to Brian Thomas Jr and what is he in this offense if he can equal what Calvin Ridley did Evan Ingram might be a trap right now in fantasy football if he doesn't equal what we saw from Calvin Ridley last year Evan Ingram could be an absolute still so here how about me just tossing to you and saying I don't know like Evan Ingram he's kind of interesting because he could be either one of these things I mean last year you look at it in only had four targets inside the 10 yard line Z Jones had five Calin Ridley had freaking 13 so that's where the upside scenario is for Kirk and Ingram alike like who is going to be that featured guy in the red zone and again Dain one of the reasons I haven't been loading up on Ingram is because I think they used the first round pick on Brian Thomas I think they paid 30 million plus dollars to Gabe Davis to get those bigger body wide receivers and for them to be their weapons near the goal line but again maybe it is just Evan Ingram certainly looked like that was going to be a role that could be increasing when he scored those two first half touchdowns and his you know lone extended preseason appearance so we'll see what happens but yeah Doug Peterson tight end Whisperer you know has been with some good tight ends from Kelsey to SS to G and now to Evan Ingram you know the jyms and Joe's certainly helps the x's and o's in that predicament but yeah biggest thing for me Dwayne are those Christian Kirk splits that you mentioned last year 7.7 half PPR points per game in 11 games with Kirk 15.5 in five gains without so hopefully as a whole we just see T start living up in that generation label and again from that perspective should be enough meat on the bone for all parties involved to be eaten now Dwayne going to do a bit of a rapid fire who would you kind of rather pick here situation so I'm talking about better Target share who would you rather have between puka AA and Brandon auk pukaa pukaa pukaa like no no contest pukaa is gonna probably out Target Brandon auk by 10 percentage points uh it might be less it might be like six or seven I could be getting excited auk is a great player he just has more Target competition you got to deal with KD you gotta deal with Debo CMC is like a damn receiver out of the backfield so that's a challenge last year puka 28% iuk 23% although iuk did lead the way an air yard Target share but yeah certainly seems like this is puka race to lose who has more carries inside the five yard line Dwayne James Cook or amandre Stevenson oh my gosh this is like a trick question because the question is like is James Cook going to actually get carries on his team we know they're going to be inside the five all the time to the bill right so if they decide to give him some of those he's clearly leading this but he only had 21% of the team's carries inside the five last year and they didn't use him that way the year before either they add Ray Davis and the big thing is Josh Allen I mean you could use Josh Allen like Jaylen Herz and just tush push and probably score all the time so the flip side is Rand re Stevenson like how many times are the Patriots gonna get inside the five yard line this year I don't think it's going to be very many so I'm gonna say it's James Cook I'm gonna say James Cook goes from being a 20 % inside the five player to 40% this year and that's enough to be better than raand who gets 70% on the Patriots last year Josh Allen had 14 carries inside the five that was the seventh most in the NFL but even with that Bill's running back still had 18 carries at the goal line Dwayne how many do you think the Patriots had all year running backs seven wow nailed it but yeah 18 versus seven no more latavius Murray so James Cook can even get 30 40% of that certainly could be beating out mandre I am with you there last one Dwayne this is a tough one who has the better air yard Target share Xavier worthy or just talking about him Brian Thomas Jr I'm gonna give it to worthy um he just looks like he has something in him in him that like might be completely unguardable in Andy Reid's offense with Patrick Mahomes that's the differentiator I think Doug Peterson is a below average offensive coordinator I think Andy Reid is one of the best I really like Trevor Lawrence but we're hoping to your point he takes the next step to pay off being that number one overall pick I already know it with Patrick Mahomes Patrick Mahomes can buy time he can survey the field he can he can hit you on the scramble drill and man he did he's so quick he's so quick with the trigger like as soon as he sees that last glance like he sees worthy he can quickly get off his first read and get over to this guy so I think Xavier Worthy is gonna lead in air yards I think Xavier Worthy surprises everyone and finishes as a top 24 fantasy wide receiver as a rookie so excited to again get some real hard data for the utilization report this time next week and Dwayne one thing we're going to make a habit of doing every Tuesday yes focusing on the present wer wire here today but also projecting maybe who could be on the cover of waiver wire articles next week and you know for right now we're talking about week two so for you Dwayne looking at guys you know under 50% ESPN ownership who do you think could be standing out after week one of action as the must have waiver wire commodity well I thought you did a pretty good job of just putting together a list before the show uh and we've been drafting a ton together over the last two weeks and these are a lot of names that we've been targeting in deeper drafts and just so you guys know Ian and I were in drafts where you're going 20 rounds right and you have to start two Flex players as well so Jalil mclin I think is a great one out of Denver Ian especially if you drafted early if you drafted this last weekend there's a chance he went in your draft because the really like all the hypee around him is gain steam but it wasn't there two weeks ago so he could get half the backfield work like that's that's the ceiling for him he could get half the backfield work in Denver I think worst case Ian he's probably getting 25% of the rushing attempts and he's taken the two-minute offense away from javante Williams which we've kind of seen Shawn Payton running backs in that mold in the past guys not trying to squ mclin so I would say he would be one of the big Nam for me uh wide receiver I would say Ad Mitchell would be the big one for me just look so good in preseason man and I don't know why he's not going closer to Lad makoni in fantasy drafts some of those other names and yeah jalo would be my highlighted player but Rico D potential Cowboys one still well under 50% never understood his kind of ranking placement over at ESPN Antonio Gibson no not the sexiest offense but if we do see that split a bit closer wouldn't be surprised at all if he is someone more recommending Jordan Mason the 49ers rb2 and Bucky Irving someone Dwayne and I have been shouting out for weeks now with a real potential to again maybe shrink that total volume that Rashad white is getting in addition to again maybe ad mitro wide receiver Rashid Shahed looking like the clearcut number two in New Orleans ker Shakur maybe Rises to the top of a muddle Buffalo Bills wide receiver room and don't forget about those Packers Romeo dos and Davian wicks in the sort of passing game that we want plenty of exposure to so last one tast him hill at tight end guys if we see him go out there and actually be the goal line back getting eight plus carries and a couple of targets I don't know why he's a tight end but you know what Dwayne don't hate the player hate the fantasy provider I guess and T some Hill a tight end might just be a thing so that's going to wrap up this edition of the fantasy live show guess what we'll be back tomorrow Thursday and Friday all throughout the season 9:00 a.m. eastern Monday through Friday overall but yeah guys talking again some finally uh week one actual matchup previews here tomorrow so make sure you come back and yeah good luck otherwise so for Dwayne for producer Matt for producer Kelsey I'm Ian thanks again for tuning to the Fantasy Life show and until next time take care everybody [Music]