Close polls belie contrary trends as Kamala Harris continues to strengthen and Trump struggles

ATTENTION TO THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE AND FOR THE CAMPAIGNS THIS IS A MOMENT WHEN EVERY DETAIL STARTS TO MATTER. VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS AND HER RUNNING MATE TIM WALZ ARE COMING OFF A TWO DAY BUS TOUR THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE FIRST DEMOCRATIC CAMPAIGN IN THAT PART OF THE STATE SINCE 1992. LAST NIGHT THE VICE PRESIDENT SAT DOWN FOR HER FIRST MAJOR INTERVIEW SINCE BECOMING HER PARTY'S NOMINEE. SHE DEFENDED THE RECORD OF THE BIDEN-HARRIS ADMINISTRATION WHILE TAKING HER OPPONENT TO TASK. >> WE HAVE HAD IN THE FORMER PRESIDENT, SOMEONE WHO HAS REALLY BEEN PUSHING AN AGENDA AND AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ABOUT DIMINISHING THE CHARACTER AND STRENGTH OF WHO WE ARE AS AMERICANS. REALLY DIVIDING OUR NATION. I AM VERY PROUD OF THE WORK THAT WE HAVE DONE THAT HAS BROUGHT INFLATION DOWN TO LESS THAN 3%. THE WORK WE HAVE DONE TO CAP THE PRICE OF INSULIN FOR SENIORS. DONALD TRUMP SAID HE WAS GOING TO DO A NUMBER OF THINGS INCLUDING ALLOWING MEDICARE TO NEGOTIATE DRUG PRICES. IT NEVER HAPPENED. WE DID IT. >> DONALD TRUMP RESPONDED TO THAT INTERVIEW ON HIS SOCIAL MEDIA SITE, SAYING THAT KAMALA HARRIS, QUOTE, RAMBLED INCOHERENTLY, WHICH IS PRETTY RICH COMING FROM A FORMER PRESIDENT WHO SEEMS TO STRUGGLE DAILY TO BE COHERENT. FOR CONTEXT, HERE WAS DONALD TRUMP THAT SAME NIGHT IN LA CROSSE, WISCONSIN. >> SOME PEOPLE DON'T EAT BACON ANYMORE AND WE ARE GOING TO GET THE ENERGY CRISIS DOWN. YOU KNOW THIS WAS CAUSED BY THEIR HORRIBLE ENERGY. WIND, THEY WANT WIND ALL OVER THE PLACE. >> PEOPLE DON'T EAT BACON ANYMORE. THEY WANT WIND ALL OVER THE PLACE. THAT THAT YOU JUST HEARD AND SAW WAS PART OF THE REPUBLICAN MESSAGE TO WISCONSIN WHERE A NEW BLOOMBERG MORNING CONSULT POLL FINDS KAMALA HARRIS LEADING DONALD TRUMP BY EIGHT POINTS. THAT SAME POLL SHOWS KAMALA HARRIS LEADING TRUMP WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR BY FOUR POINTS IN NEVADA AND PENNSYLVANIA. BY THREE POINTS IN MICHIGAN AND TWO POINTS IN GEORGIA AND NORTH CAROLINA, A STATES THAT NO DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE HAS ONE SINCE 2008. IT ALSO FINDS TRUMP AND HARRIS TIED IN ARIZONA. THAT TIGHTENING RACE MAY BE WHY DONALD TRUMP IS NOW TRYING TO WALK AWAY FROM SOME OF HIS PARTY'S MOST CONTROVERSIAL POSITIONS. IN THE LAST 24 HOURS HE HAS WAFFLED BACK AND FORTH OVER WHETHER HE WILL SUPPORT A BALLOT MEASURE IN HIS ADOPTED HOME STATE OF FLORIDA THAT WOULD OVERTURN THE STATES SIX- WEEK ABORTION BAN. MORE ON THAT PERSONAL STRUGGLE LATER IN THE SHOW. WE ARE ALSO WATCHING FOR NEW DETAILS ON HOW THE TWO CANDIDATES ARE PREPARING OR IN TRUMP'S CASE NOT PREPARING FOR THEIR FIRST DEBATE IN 11 DAYS. NBC NEWS REPORTS KAMALA HARRIS HAS BEEN FOCUSED ON HOW TO NEEDLE DONALD TRUMP. HOW TO RATTLE HIM AND REMIND PEOPLE WHAT IT WAS LIKE DURING DONALD TRUMP'S EARS. BY CONTRAST, THOUGH, TRUMP IS REPORTEDLY NOT DOING ANYTHING TO LEVEL EXPECTATIONS. IN FACT A SPOKESPERSON FOR THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN TOLD NBC NEWS, PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS PROVEN TO BE ONE OF THE BEST DEBATERS IN POLITICAL HISTORY, AS EVIDENCED BY HIS KNOCKOUT BLOW TO JOE BIDEN. HE DOES NOT NEED TRADITIONAL PREP, BECAUSE UNLIKE KAMALA HARRIS HE HAS A COMMAND OF THE ISSUE, FREQUENTLY SITS DOWN FOR INTERVIEWS AND TAKES QUESTIONS FROM HOSTILE NEWS MEDIA ALMOST EVERY DAY. OKAY, SO THAT IS A PRETTY HIGH BAR TO SET FOR YOUR CANDIDATE, ESPECIALLY AT THIS STAGE OF THE CAMPAIGN WITH A CANDIDATE LIKE TRUMP, WHEN EVERY LITTLE THING COUNTS AND THE RACE COULD HARDLY BE CLOSER. JOINING US NOW IS A FORMER CAMPAIGN MANAGER FOR BERNIE SANDERS 2020 CAMPAIGN. ALSO JOINING US IS SIMON ROSENBERG, AUTHOR ON SUBSTACK AND A FORMER DNC STAFFER. AND STAFF WRITER FOR THE ATLANTIC. SIMON I WOULD LOVE TO START WITH YOU. EVERYONE WHO KNOWS ME KNOWS I AM NOT A HUGE FAN OF POLLS, BUT I RECOGNIZE TRENDS AND WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THIS BEFORE ON MY OWN SHOW, BUT LET'S TALK ABOUT THOSE POLLS BECAUSE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS AND IF WE LOOK AT SOME POLLS THAT CAME OUT AFTER THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF KAMALA HARRIS GOING TO THE TOP OF THE TICKET, IT IS THE SAME TICKING UPWARDS FOR KAMALA HARRIS. >> IT IS SEVEN POINTS IN OUR DIRECTION. SHE IS CONSISTENTLY LEADING IN BATTLEGROUND STATES. SENATE PULLING ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS VERY ENCOURAGING. HOUSE DEMOCRATS FEEL BULLISH ABOUT CHANCES BECAUSE ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS IN ADDITION TO IMPROVING POLLS IS ALL OF THE MONEY AND VOLUNTEERS THAT HAVE COME INTO OUR CAMPAIGNS HAVE MADE OUR CAMPAIGN STRONGER AND MORE MUSCULAR AND ONE OF THE BIG STORIES I THINK IN THESE FINAL TWO MONTHS AS WE WILL HAVE A MUCH GREATER CAPACITY TO CLOSE OUT THIS ELECTION STRONG BECAUSE OF ALL THIS MONEY AND VOLUNTEERS. I THINK WE FEEL VERY GOOD. I'VE BEEN TALKING TO PEOPLE IN THE PARTY THIS WEEKEND THERE IS A CLEAR OPTIMISM ABOUT OUR ABILITY NOW TO FEEL GOOD ABOUT WHERE WE ARE. WE HAVE A BETTER ABILITY TO CLOSE AND NOW WE HAVE TO EXECUTE AND WHEN THIS THING. >> LAST NIGHT WE HAD SENATOR RICHMOND ON AND HE TALKED ABOUT THE BUS TOUR IN GEORGIA THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE HARRIS-WALZ CAMPAIGN DOING. THE AJC IS REPORTING IN GEORGIA THE SURGE OF NEW VOTER REGISTRATIONS, THIS NUMBER IS FASCINATING. BLACK WOMEN LEAD WITH A 75% JUMP IN REGISTRATIONS COMPARED WITH THE SAME 3 1/2 WEEKS IN 2020. SIMON TALKS ABOUT THE VIBE. I LOVE VIBES. GOOD VIBES MAYBE IN THIS INSTANCE TRANSLATE TO ACTUAL VOTES. >> ABSOLUTELY I AGREE WITH EVERYTHING SIMON'S BED AND I WANT TO REMAIN -- EVERYTHING SIMON SAID AND I WANT TO REMAIN IN THAT POSITIVITY. THIS RACE IS NOT ONE, THERE ARE 60 DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION AND I TRY TO THINK OF DONALD TRUMP WERE TO WIN, HOW DOES HE PULL IT OFF? IF YOU GO BACK TO 2020 HOW HE PULLS IT OFF IS QUITE SAD TO REFLECT ON THAT ONE OF THE STORIES WAS HOW HE OUTPERFORMED. ONE OF US THOUGHT THE CHAOS OF THAT FOR YEARS EDITING DAYS YEARS HEADING INTO ELECTION DAY. COVID AND SHOOTING RUBBER BULLETS AT PROTESTERS. IT WAS A CHAOTIC SCENE AND ON ELECTION DAY, HOPEFULLY EVERYONE REMEMBERS ON ELECTION NIGHT WISCONSIN, GEORGIA, ARIZONA, NAILBITERS. IF THAT WERE TO FLIP THE OTHER WAY AROUND, REALLY TENS OF THOUSANDS OF VOTES, DONALD TRUMP CARRIES THE ELECTION. THAT IS JUST TO INVOKE SOME CAUTION TO SAY THERE IS WORK TO DO TO MAKE SURE THIS ENTHUSIASM THAT SIMON IS REFERRING TO GETS SOLIDIFIED AND LAST-MINUTE VOTERS WILL COME ON LINE AS YOU MENTIONED POST-LABOR DAY WHO ARE NOT FOLLOWING THE NEWS AS INTENSELY. THEY ARE LOOKING FOR WHO STANDS WITH ME, WHO FIGHTS WITH ME AND WE HAVE TO WIN THOSE PEOPLE OVER. IT IS VERY CRITICAL. >> MARK, IF PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO DIAL IT NOW AND BY THE WAY THIS IS A WHOLE OTHER CONVERSATION WE COULD HAVE ABOUT WHETHER IT MAKES SENSE TO NARROW THE RUNWAY OF 90 DAYS AHEAD OF AN ELECTION VERSUS THE TORTUROUS TIME THAT IT NORMALLY IS. SO WE HAVE STUFF LIKE THE INTERVIEW THAT KAMALA HARRIS AND TIM WALZ DID YESTERDAY, LAST NIGHT ON CNN. WHEN YOU HAVE THESE BATTLEGROUND STATES WHERE YOU HAVE VERY ENTRENCHED VOTERS I WOULD SAY ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE, ESPECIALLY REPUBLICAN LEANING AREAS IN THESE BATTLEGROUND STATES, ARE THEY TUNING IN AND CATCHING THE FACT THAT YOU HAVE SOMEBODY LIKE KAMALA HARRIS DELIVERING MESSAGING THAT INCLUDES POLICY WHEN THAT IS SUBSTANTIVELY LACKING WHEN YOU ASK DONALD TRUMP WHAT HIS POLICY PLATFORM IS? >> I THINK LAST NIGHT WAS AN EFFORT BY HARRIS AND WALZ. THERE WERE NOT VIBES IN THE WAY THE CONVENTION WAS AND THE LAST FEW WEEKS WERE. IT DID NOT HAVE THE VISCERAL JOY WE HAVE SEEN SINCE REALLY THE MIDDLE OF THE SUMMER, BUT I THINK IT REALLY DID, IT WAS A PERFECTLY FINE AND KIND OF UNSPECTACULAR BUT ALSO VICTORIA'S EVENING BECAUSE THEY DID GET A MESSAGE OUT. I THINK TO THE LARGER POINT, I VERY MUCH AGREE WITH BOTH OF THESE GUYS, BUT ALSO I THINK THE NUMBERS ARE REALLY ENCOURAGING. THE WAY THEY HAVE RUN THE CAMPAIGN IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS REALLY ENCOURAGING, BUT YOU CAN'T GET PAST THE FACT THAT YES, PEOPLE, JOE BIDEN ONE AND 2020, BUT TRUMP SERIOUSLY OVER PERFORMED AS HE DID IN 2016 AND THERE IS SOMETHING ABOUT THE TWO TIMES HE HAS BEEN ON THE BALLOT THAT LEADS YOU TO THINK YOU HAVE TO TAKE ANY POLLS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT THAT TRUMP SUPPORTERS