Donald Trump chases politics and stabs evangelical supporters in the back

SPECIAL TWO HOUR ADDITION OF ALEX WAGNER TONIGHT. I AM KATIE FILLING, IN FOR ALEX. ONE OF THE CLOSEST PRESIDENTIAL RACES WE HAVE EVER EXPERIENCED IN THIS COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH GEORGE W. BUSH WON THE ELECTION BY JUST FIVE ELECTORAL VOTES, IT WAS AL GORE WHO WON THE POPULAR VOTE THAT YEAR. WHEN YOU START TO SLICE AND DICE THE ELECTORATE INTO DIFFERENT VOTING GROUPS, THAT RACE STARTS TO LOOK WAY LESS TIGHT. CHECK THIS OUT. IN 2000, GEORGE W. BUSH DRAMATICALLY OUTPERFORMED HIS OPPONENT AMONG WHITE EVANGELICAL VOTERS, WINNING 68% AMONG THAT GROUP. IN 2004, HE INCREASED THAT SUPPORT BY 10 POINTS. EVANGELICAL SUPPORT FOR THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE REMAINED RELATIVELY STEADY FOR THE NEXT TWO ELECTIONS. AND THEN LOOK WHAT HAPPENED IN 2016. DONALD TRUMP WON THE SUPPORT OF 81% OF WHITE EVANGELICAL VOTERS. DONALD TRUMP'S ABILITY TO SUPERCHARGE THE EVANGELICAL VOTE HAS LARGELY BEEN ATTRIBUTED AS THE REASON HE WAS ABLE TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY THE FIRST TIME HE RAN. WITHOUT A STRONG EVANGELICAL TURNOUT, IT BECOMES MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR DONALD TRUMP TO CHART A REPEAT PATH TO THE PRESIDENCY, WHICH IS WHY HEADLINES LIKE THESE TODAY ARE A FIVE ALARM FIRE FOR THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN. THE "WHITE EVANGELICALS ARE UPSET AT RECENT TRUMP AND VANCE STATEMENTS ON ABORTION." THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE LAID BARE THE CHALLENGES OF RUNNING THE FIRST REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN FOR PRESIDENT IN 50 YEARS. IN AN AMERICA WHERE ABORTION IS NOT A GUARANTEED CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT. IN ADDITION TO VOTING FOR PRESIDENT THIS NOVEMBER, FLORIDA WILL ALSO VOTE ON WHETHER ABORTION ACCESS SHOULD BE PROTECTED IN THEIR STATE UP TO 24 WEEKS OF PREGNANCY. RIGHT NOW, ABORTION IS ILLEGAL AFTER JUST SIX WEEKS, WHICH IS BEFORE MOST WOMEN EVEN SUSPECT THAT THEY COULD BE PREGNANT. LAST NIGHT, DONALD TRUMP, WHO HIMSELF IS A FLORIDA VOTER, TOLD NBC NEWS THAT HE BELIEVES THE SIX WEEK BAN IN HIS STATE IS TOO SHORT. HE SAID WHEN HE VOTES IN NOVEMBER, HE WILL BE VOTING THAT WE NEED MORE THAN SIX WEEKS. WHICH SEEMED TO IMPLY THAT HE WOULD BE VOTING TO PROTECT ABORTION ACCESS IN FLORIDA. IN THAT SAME INTERVIEW, DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCED THAT IF HE IS ELECTED TO A SECOND TERM, HE WOULD FIND A WAY TO FUND IVF TREATMENT FOR ALL PEOPLE STRUGGLING WITH INFERTILITY. WHICH IS THE NEWEST TARGET OF THE EVANGELICAL ANTIABORTION SECT OF THE HARD RIGHT. AND SO, THAT 12 PUNCH FROM DONALD TRUMP, HIS APPARENT NEWFOUND SUPPORT FOR ABORTION AND IVF HAS SET OFF A FIRESTORM AMONG THE EVANGELICALS THAT TRUMP NEEDS TO WIN THE ELECTION. LAST NIGHT, THE PRESIDENT OF AN INFLUENTIAL ANTIABORTION GROUP CALLED DONALD TRUMP PERSONALLY. ACCORDING TO NBC NEWS, SHE WAS CALLING TO ASK TO CLARIFY WHETHER OR NOT HE HAD SUDDENLY DECIDED TO SUPPORT ABORTION. SHE TOLD TRUMP, IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT YOU ARE CLEAR, BECAUSE THERE IS CONFUSION NOW THAT YOU MAY BE IN SUPPORT OF THIS. AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT CONFUSION ARE ALREADY PLAYING OUT. THE PRESIDENT OF ANTIABORTION STUDENT GROUP SAYS VOLUNTEERS ARE REFUSING NOW TO KNOCK ON DOORS FOR DONALD TRUMP IF HIS STANCE ON ABORTION IS NOT "CORRECTED." THAT VISCERAL RESPONSE FROM THE FAR RIGHT TODAY HAS SET THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN INTO A KIND OF TAILSPIN AS THEY ATTEMPTED TO BACKTRACK ON TRANSIT PRO- ABORTION COMMENTS. IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, TRUMP HIMSELF SAID THAT REGARDLESS OF WHATEVER HE SAID YESTERDAY, HE DOES INTEND TO VOTE AGAINST THE FLORIDA BALLOT MEASURE THAT WOULD DO THAT IN HIS STATE. BUT WOULD THAT BE ENOUGH TO SATISFY'S EVANGELICAL BASE? THE DANGER HERE IS NOT THAT THESE VOTERS WILL SUDDENLY RUN AND DECIDED TO VOTE FOR KAMALA HARRIS, THE DANGER IS THAT ALL OF TRUMP'S FLIP-FLOPPING AND FLAILING AND TALKING OUT OF BOTH SIDES OF HIS MOUTH HAS CAUSED HIS BASE TO BELIEVE THAT HE IS REALLY NOT THE ANTIABORTION WARRIOR HE PROMISED TO BE. AND THAT INSTEAD OF TURNING OUT TO VOTE FOR HIM ON NOVEMBER 5th, THEY'RE JUST GOING TO STAY HOME. JOINING US NOW IS McKAY, STAFF WRITER AT THE ATLANTIC. I WANT TO THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE, THIS IS A REALLY IMPORTANT CONVERSATION, RIGHT? BECAUSE TRUMP, I BELIEVE, MAKE THAT PROMISE AND SAID I AM GOING TO GIVE YOU SUPREME COURT JUSTICES, I'M GOING TO OVERTURN ROE V. WADE, HE TAKES SO MUCH PRIDE IN THE FACT THAT YOU SUCCESSFULLY GOT ROE V. WADE TURNED OVERTURN, BUT IN THE SPAN OF 24 HOURS, HE CANNOT TAKE AP!IWb'!kw3CONSISTENT FShP ABORTION. >> YEAH, I THINK THAT IS REALLY STRIKING AND I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THE CONTEXT HERE. IN 2016, CONSERVATIVE EVANGELICALS ESSENTIALLY MADE WHAT A LOT OF THEM REALIZED WAS A BARGAIN BY GETTING BEHIND TRUMP. MOST OF THEM, IF THEY WERE BEING HONEST WITH THEMSELVES, AND MANY OF THEM EVEN SAID SO OUTRIGHT, KNEW THAT DONALD TRUMP WAS NOT AN ESPECIALLY RIGHTEOUS OR GODLY MAN. THEY KNEW THAT HE WAS EVEN PROBABLY NOT A REALLY PRO-LIFE PERSON, RIGHT? HE HAD A LONG TRACK RECORD OF TALKING ABOUT ABORTION IN A FAIRLY MODERATE OR EVEN LIBERAL TERMS. BUT THEY MADE THIS CALCULATION IN 2016 THAT HE WOULD OWE THEM IF THEY SHOWED UP FOR THEM. IF THEY DELIVERED HIM THE PRESIDENCY, HE WOULD DELIVER FOR THEM BY APPOINTING CONSERVATIVE JUSTICES TO THE COURT WHO WOULD OVERTURN ROE V. WADE. NOW, HE BASICALLY DID DELIVER ON HIS PROMISE IN 2016, THE CONSERVATIVE EVANGELICALS I HAVE TALKED TO UP UNTIL ABOUT A YEAR OR TWO AGO, WOULD SAY WE MADE THIS BED AND IT PAID OFF MASSIVELY. BUT NOW, THEY SEE DONALD TRUMP WAFFLING ON THIS ISSUE. HE IS TALKING ABOUT SUBSIDIZING IVF FOR ALL WOMEN IN AMERICA. HE IS TALKING ABOUT LEAVING ABORTION TO THE STATES. AND IN THIS NEXT RUN OF THE BATTLE OVER ABORTION, THE PRO- LIFE MOVEMENT IS SEEING THAT DONALD TRUMP IS NOT NEARLY AS COMMITTED AS THEY THOUGHT HE WAS, AND NOT ONLY THAT, THAT THEY CAN'T CONTROL HIM IN THE WAY THAT THEY THOUGHT THEY COULD. AND THAT, I THINK, IS WHAT IS DELIVERING A LOT OF HIS CONSTERNATION ON THE PRO-LIFE FRONT. THESE PEOPLE THOUGHT THAT THEY HAD HIM UNDER THEIR THUMB, AND NOW THEY'RE NOT SO SURE, AND I THINK THAT'S WHERE THE DIVISION IS COMING FROM AND THAT'S WHY YOU ARE HEARING SO MUCH ANGST FROM A LOT OF THESE PRO-LIFE VOICES. >> McKAY, IT HAS GOT TO BE SUCH AN INSULT TO THEIR INTELLIGENCE, THIS EVANGELICAL BASE OF VOTERS, THAT TRUMP SUGGESTS IF NOT OUTRIGHT SAYS THAT HE CAN PLAY THEM. HE CAN PROMISE ONE THING, DO ANOTHER. I DON'T THINK INCONSISTENT IS THE RIGHT ADJECTIVE FOR HIM, BECAUSE WHEN HE GOES OUT AND PROMISES YOU GET A CAR, YOU GET IVF, AND YOU GET IVF, AND YET, NOT TO MAKE LIGHT OF IT, FETAL PERSONHOOD IS A VERY REAL THING FOR THE EVANGELICAL BASE AND THEY HAVE MADE IT CLEAR THAT IVF CHALLENGES THEIR BELIEFS, BECAUSE EVEN THOUGH, YES, THEY ARE PRO-LIFE, THEY HAVE A CONCERN ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE EGGS, THE EMBRYOS THAT ARE CREATED DURING THIS IVF PROCESS. AND SO, DO YOU THINK THAT THERE IS ENOUGH HERE, ENOUGH MEAT ON THE BONE FOR THE EVANGELICAL BASE TO SAY, YOU KNOW WHAT, I AM AN INTELLIGENT VOTER AND I'M NOT GOING TO BE PLAYED BY YOU, DONALD TRUMP? >> YEAH, I THINK IT REALLY COMES DOWN TO WHO HAS THE POWER, WHO HAS THE UPPER HAND IN THIS KIND OF ARRANGED MARRIAGE BETWEEN THE SOCIAL CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT AND DONALD TRUMP. I THINK A LOT OF SOCIAL CONSERVATIVES BELIEVED UP UNTIL RECENTLY THAT THEY WERE THE ONES PULLING THE STRINGS. AND LOOK, I THINK THEY STILL HAVE A CASE TO MAKE HERE. THE FACT THAT DONALD TRUMP HAS SLIPPED ON THE FLORIDA ABOION LAW SUGGESTS THAT THEY STILL DO HAVE SOME POWER AND THEY ARE FLEXING THAT MUSCLE THERE. BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, LIKE IF THESE VOTERS DON'T BELIEVE THAT DONALD TRUMP IS GOING TO DELIVER FOR THEM ANYMORE, AND THEY SEE HIM OUT THERE, QUARTERING MODERATE SWING VOTERS WHO ARE MORE PRO-CHOICE, WHO ARE PRO-IVF, I COULD SEE A SITUATION WHERE AT LEAST SOME OF THEM DECIDE TO STAY HOME. I HEARD IT EVEN IN MY REPORTING OVER THE SUMMER WITH THE EVANGELICAL RIGHT, A LOT OF THEM HAVE TALKED THEMSELVES INTO THIS IDEA OVER THE PAST EIGHT YEARS THAT DONALD TRUMP IS NOT ONLY KIND OF A BLUNT INSTRUMENT IN GOD'S HAND, BUT THAT HE TRULY IS GOD'S CHAMPION, AND IF YOU HEAR IT IN THE PRAYERS THAT ARE DELIVERED AT HIS RALLIES, YOU HEAR IT IN SOME OF THE RHETORIC THAT IS EVANGELICAL SUPPORTERS USED IN TALKING ABOUT HIM. I WILL SAY, THAT RHETORIC WILL EVAPORATE VERY QUICKLY IF THESE PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT DONALD TRUMP IS GOING TO ADVANCE ANY KIND OF PRO-CHOICE POLICIES. AND IF THEY START TO BELIEVE HE IS NOT ACTUALLY ON THEIR SIDE, IF HE IS NOT GOING TO DO THEIR BIDDING, THOSE VOTERS WILL STAY HOME. THEY ARE NOT GOING TO VOTE FOR DEMOCRATS, BUT THEY ARE NOT GOING TO VOTE FOR HIM, EITHER. >> I AM PROBABLY GOING TO