MLB Picks Today 8/26/24 | Free MLB Picks & Bets: Rays vs Mariners & Royals vs Guardians (Game 2)

Opening Discussion hello everyone and welcome to another edition of The Winter Circle sports betting podcast on Monday August the 26 man wrap it up the month welcome on in hit the like button here show the channel some love and support it's Monday me and Doug upstone today chipper be off for a couple days got some personal uh got to take care of so our thoughts chip taking care of some things there and I'll let him discuss that when he comes back but um here we go NFL preseason over regular season a week away college football a Saturday in the books interesting Saturday for sure before we talk about that though NFL is out back college football is here early bird special is up for 599 at the gamblers world.net website and please they're our sponsor give it a follow come get on board me Doug chip 10 other top handicappers for you I saw today Jim Feist has joined the channel this guy I mean I got Mark Lawrence on Fridays I chipper I this is like a who's who of 80s 90s ogs on the show so that's pretty wild he'll be with us doing some football and videos during the week the last show Friday by the way two and one I had to Loser there on Friday though I had the Giants no showing up if figures they're the trash Giants I think that's the game they have to win because they're have a terrible regular season well that's just the whipped cream on the proverbial poop with them showing up like that against the Jets backups seven in two week of free picks I don't know we I mean that's pretty darn good that's gonna be tough for us to top but I don't know we're pretty good you're pretty good how was your weekend baseball football how they treat you what is going on my friend good to see you yes good to see you as well and uh yeah so the like I said free plays outstanding just across the board and uh and I I'll just throw in one little bump here is that the uh started writing for at Gamers world uh line moves articles okay and so it's uh we started with college football last week we had a combo uh went four- one on those I think three one to one the week before and uh just F it's just free picks following the biggest line moves of the week so I there'll be one up on Tuesday for college football here at Gamers world and next week when the NFL starts you have that too and uh each one of them each and everyone that's on there is with a free pick and lots of other information that you can find valuable terms of myself personally five and two uh last couple days Major League Baseball so get starting to get uh back into the rhythm of things here even though we're getting later in the season but uh yeah so just you know just generally some good some good stuff and looking forward to another great football season who W uh six of the last seven in the NFL five of the last eight in college football Sean so uh it's giddy up and go time right listen folks seven and two here in the videos and Doug just said he said he went seven2 and one in the article for the line mov for football that's um that's pretty good and all that and all that is is you just hitting a stupid like button so get on it let's go I want the 15,000 views by December although I really wanted before then but uh yeah so NFL Reviews and Line Moves NFL real fast preseason is over what do you think about this I saw uh on the Twitter World favorites this weekend 10 five and one straight up it's thinking oh look at that the public made a killing right underdogs uh 10 and six against the spread during that same time there and to wrap up the season here of the three weeks of preseason which is terrible by the way underdogs 297 and one basically on a on a whole round about 63% not too bad uh UND 31 and 17 64.6% for those who keep track of that stuff I don't really know if I'm going to kind of use that knowledge going forward for next year especially if they get rid of a a preseason game and just even this year I don't think I could just go and say let's just take every under even though what I saw this year I might just be a pass for those two weeks I don't think there'll be really much reason to get involved I'll probably try to grind out some baseball or just dive more into the college football and NFL and get my numbers correct for the upcoming season yeah these numbers this year uh I looked this up as well is that uh that's the percentage for dogs covering the best since 2008 so let's just call it somewh of Aly that way and in terms of the unders that's the most uh percentage wise the most number of unders in 20 years okay so those are just some really random events that occurred um you know I think each and every preseason just is on its own well kind of like every season you know just there's just things about it that occur and so to put much value into it hey I I was happy I had a winning uh preseason didn't wasn't fantastic went four and three but 84 and 60 the last 17 years you know what I'll take it and just we move on from there and uh you know just I know that one thing that I saw I forget the the exact number and percentages but it was well into the 60s is if you went against the line moves that were one and a half or more points uh if you bet every game you went well over 60% so uh so following the line moves this year in particular was not a good strategy no you're you're late late to the party and that and again I had some nice moves early uh they didn't come out to be right and I was wasn't like I had the B number it wasn't like it's like oh I had the whatever like I thought but first we got Giants minus plus five and halfway down to two you're thinking all right I got some wiggle room here did make a difference so that comes up to the old is clv worth it is it just the number is a number better team wins that's always a fun discussion we like to have but um and preseason especially I mean you know I don't don't even know what that means yeah I mean we talked about the the Bills game against the Steelers the line was a went to six or seven because Allen wasn't supposed to play hi he's playing it drops down to one or a pick them he doesn't play the bill still win the game so you know I think I I don't even know off the top of my head how I did in base uh football I think I won a little bit but uh again it was H again historically it's usually a spot where you can win a decent amount and hit a 60% and make a nice trunk this year uh I can't with these quarterbacks sitting out not playing the coaches I mean the fact that you say he's playing and he doesn't play that's just wrong I mean you know and the and and and the fact that these teams now the stadium stuff have deals with sports books and stuff you can't be pulling that kind of nonsense because they're gonna be you know we'll get into the bad beat refunds eventually as a season progresses but that kind of stuff people are gonna again I'm I'm a Believer is it is what it is you bet you win you lose that's it there's no crying and betting right things happen for whatever reason but I think next year I'm not g I'm not I'm not playing I'm not gonna do it yeah especially if it goes to two I mean just doesn't seem yeah no ABS yes two games why no that is definitely a a no-o for me absolutely I I'll say that I always say like get the pen out kind of stuff when I do stuff get the no way two games no thank you no thank you that'll be a week of diving into sun Bel football or something anything but that that'd be something though for the books would would have to adjust them too because I mean not not that you know the preseason is a ton of money but still it's I mean it's part of their income okay for the month of August so without if if that does that and you know and the perception of a lot of people that I've read you know saying that they're just kind of disgruntled with you know how this is all going with the preseason how much has changed and you know I mean it literally is just backups you know playing and I mean even even Trey Lance playing I I gave it all as a free pick with the Cowboys but Trey Lance playing and throwing five interceptions five interceptions pick sixes I mean like that's a game you should have won with Dallas right yeah I mean but just it it was a free pick so you know not gonna lose any sleep over T Lance let's let's trade up and take him three and people gonna jump out on the guy remember that guy started weeks one and two for the for the ners they thought this guy was and people were betting him oh MVP got Jak Trey Lance to be MVP this year yeah yeah I I wouldn't quite go that far that's like speaking of that Jordan love and I'm a Packer fan but you know to me I my personal opinion uh of Jordan love right now is I think he'll be somewhere between where he was when he was awful the start the season and to where he was outstanding at the end of the season I think yeah I think he's gonna be leaning towards the better better But I mean but you know I I've seen you know MVP reports and that stuff you know but at least on him you saw a little bit saw him from a backup to a growth you could say you know what maybe things go right in the Lions GTH gets hurt or something I mean I hate saying stuff about somebody getting hurt because that's the last thing you want to see about any any team or any player I hate when guys get hurt I think we've talked about this over baseball thing I I don't like to see that but that is rather shock because that's guy who was you know a a quarter I mean they had the lead against the ners who knows they could have went to the you don't know I mean that's at least I could I could say that would be worth a shot as opposed to Williams or you know CJ strad after you know one a rookie year showing against a bad schedule you know yes we got some footall excuse me what you think about college football uh oh you know I had one game and I think I've I've said it on here multiple times said take Georgia Tech take Georgia Tech it was 13 you know it went down to 10 that was the only thing I had rolling um so there we go that's a win for me does it make me like shake my head a little bit that every monster like these dogs three of them probably should have won outright with the exception of Delaware state which you know that was if they if they would have won been close to an outright you'd have a wow but um yeah a little shocked of of how bad uh TC was that TCU or SMU looked on against Nana so that was a little interesting the New Mexico I I thought that line got out of hand at 14 points it open a four and a half and just people kept on crushing it and I get it New Mexico's head coach and quarterback and offensive coordinator they had three starters back they all left and went but you're still a a smaller School listen at nine I would have been like that's that's about as top you could have had it at five but uh for New Mexico to choke that away that's that's probably why that total went that's why the line moved if you see them give up 21 points in a fourth quarter holy cow you know yeah that was and the thing though the Sam Houston if if you on Houston you could make the case now of course the how the game would have played out would have been a completely different but I mean two defensive scores for Montana Montana that's Sam Houston Montana the yeah but New Mexico getting two defensive scores I mean that you know that's that's the game right there in terms of covering the spread so that was different you know SMU the I look I watched uh I watched the entire game and the thing that struck me more is that they really the receivers did a very poor job of getting open so I don't know if it was and Preston Stone seemed to be hanging on to the ball a little bit you know so that that was if if I'm SMU fan going into the ACC that's I you know little interation people were high like oh these guys may come in here and steal the AC oh yeah yeah I I don't I don't see that it's a good way to steal games when you play like garbage against a team that has you know a win total of two and a half and you almost lose that game so yeah so yeah maybe can sneak up on people yeah and then Florida State boy that was I mean just I mean whipped in the trenches I mean listen here everybody's like oh they got dju that guy was on Clemson he went to the Pack 12 he's back in good quarterbacks aren't on three teams in three years doesn't happen that way you know that's why if guys are if you're a top player you're not going to three teams in three years it's not like you followed a coach there no you got replaced in what the championship game in Clemson yep you put up okay numbers in a pack 12 where it's a Pack 12 we get a lot of also on a running team too you know you're not really I'm not really impressed with pack it's kind of like big 12 kind of numbers you gotta kind of look at them with non- Rosy glasses um and this and again that line open up at 2122 for BC it's down to 17 as I think it should be as I think it should have come down they look bad I mean Georgia Tech nice win I I mean I don't know if they're they'll get a lot of of this week but that is a that is a proverbial flat spot there two 14 and a half points and you know you're coming back from Ireland you know I don't know if I want to take them there but yeah and especially playing a state school too and not that Georgia state is good but you know yeah just you know I mean obviously Georgia state's motivation will be quite a bit higher than Georgia attx in that one yeah so it's it's also weird too Florida State's got playing two first two games are conference games conference games that's a odity too it seems yep you think they follow that up with maybe like a bye because you are not Ireland figure out or put or put a cupcake there you're going to come home you think you're coming home off a huge win you're coming home off a you're in a tough spot here you you're a tough because it's Monday it's because it was on the schedule for a Monday there's probably once once they decided that was it but not seem like the athletic director won't get the award of the year uh and BC's got uh who's running that like Bill O'Brien or C so you got some old NFL guys there you know they'll have those guys pumped up ready to go there you know maybe they'll get that team back back into fighting shape but all right uh enough football 599 early birds up if you want to get down with that and of course baseball is a 249 I believe for a uh rest of the season 249 if you want to get some baseball stuff we got baseball today we got two games we're gonna look at Doug will be checking out the Rays and Seattle here so uh poo peot I don't know Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners how to say his name I like the guy from the Dodgers they you know he's a top arm for them they trade him uh not bad numbers here Miller for Seattle he's about a 130 fave total of seven here what has happened to Seattle's offense here they were four and a half back now in in the west I think we could we could probably sew up the asra there six and a half back in wild card I don't want to jump into all the guys kind of numbers here because it's your game but I'm gonna follow up in your on your take on this one but Seattle boy oh what if if only these guys had a couple guys who could hit they'd probably be at uh 75 wins uh yeah right they had some problems well you know and first before we get there I'm going to do something in honor of Chip today okay and uh except for I'm not GNA go back in history we're gonna create history today okay because for those of you that are unfamiliar with the name Danny Janson okay earlier this year he was with the Toronto Blue Jays okay and so he was on there nice player okay well he then at the at the deadline he was traded to Boston okay well as it turns out they had a game that was suspended and in fact uh as we're doing this video that game is going to get started in about 10 minutes so so he was so that game was suspended so now it's already been pre-arranged Danny Janson is going to bat and play for Boston today so Danny Janson will become the first player okay in the history of baseball to play for two different teams in the same game okay so little uh little useless trivia for you on that one that will I can't imagine well it can only be tied so that's but he'll be the first one but it's funny because I have the today in sports history up I through to find something for today but go ahead with your game okay all right Seattle Tampa Bay uh right now Seattle is actually closer to having a chance to win their division than they are to get in the Wild Card they're five games back in the division to Houston uh and seven games back and for the wild card with just 31 remaining so basically they're going to have to get red stinking hot to even have a chance to to catch Houston in this one Scott Service as you're well aware of was fired on Thursday last week uh so one noticeable difference though about Seattle this weekend winning their Series against San Francisco is that inter manager Dan Wilson um he looks at his team with with its hitting weaknesses and decides to try and do something about it and not have it be just the same old stuff so this weekend instead of waiting the number 26 offense in baseball instead of waiting for a home run to occur or a multiple guys on base and hit home runs they stole bases they had a sacrifice bunt they moved runners okay all contributing to them winning two out of three now of course Sean and I both understand that you know that doesn't really necessarily Shine for the analytics crowd okay to do that and for the the front office people that they're paying to do that but you know what the idea is to win games so as Sean mentioned we got a really good pitching matchup uh in this one and here's the thing I find the most interesting is that the total is seven okay and for Seattle that is a very important number if you look at it from the standpoint if you think they can win because when they score four or more runs this season they are 53 and 11 if they don't score three excuse me four runs they are 13 and 54 I'm going to take Seattle to win four to three okay and improve their improve their record today and see if and nailed on a victory over Tampa Bay Doug official play manners minus the 127 now the seven to me I would just be like you got to take unders because I've the Seattle hitting worst at home in all major league baseball a 207 batting average there's no way to slice that that is flat out awful Miller's numbers at home I mean Miller just on the year having a good year and to bore you with his his whips and batting average against stuff I mean 188 batting average at home and 91 whip just ridiculous and peopleo not bad he's got decent numbers on the road and overall on the season I mean the guy's on the year he's got a one whip he's got a 105 whip this you got a guy coming in who's pitching to putting a guy on base if you're lucky versus a team that is getting on rarely I mean I I I listen I'm with you on Seattle because I think it just strikes me as it's I hate the old they have to win kind of game right but it's like a game they should win they're still better than Tampa Bay and the Pitcher maybe just a air better his home splits just kind of push me over to top to take Seattle but I'd have to even probably look at the under as well there though too I mean man Seattle like I said closer to to winning the division which I it could still be there I mean Houston L's see you're bringing back Verlander who's old you got pitching staff is maxed out the bullpen been stretched thin I'd hate to see them not make the playoffs based on their pitching staff because that staff I think is GNA keep you in a lot of games against a lot of teams I mean there still I mean granted they were they were what 10 12 games below 500 now they're 70 and 60 but they're still 70 and 60 okay you know and yeah and they've played a lot better since since they got healthier and you know and some and some of their bats came back but you know it's still it's Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians (Game 2) more reputation than actually on the field results with this team for me so so I'm be looking at um two teams that could very well make the playoffs and if at the beginning of the year if you said Astro Seattle or Kansas City Cleveland which two make the playoffs it would probably be leaning um money coming in on the AL West teams but we have a double dip here in KC or in Cleveland versus the Royals and normally I see double headers I try to kind avoid those things and um I like to take a team for both games like I think it's hard to sweep teams right just the way it is and you got two teams battling for for playoff spots andh this one here I'm gonna look at a total though here so I I'll save you all the drama I'm gonna go over the eight and a half and this is just based on I got a double header which means we're gonna get maybe some worn out relievers maybe maybe it's a little whack of your lineup maybe forget all that I have two pitchers that are pitching like absolute trash Doug I mean on the year Allan this is why I can't really have faith in Cleveland winning any kind of games you roll out a guy who has a 550 ER as like your three starter I think you had a problem I don't care that they're eight and four because when you face a better pitcher like um whoever insert anybody who they're gonna be facing it's not going to be a guy with a 550 ER facing it you're gonna have you're going to be a have to be able to to get some hits you're not going to get some hits so here you go at home the guys's at 280 batting average against are you kidding me now the Royals yeah little less at home than on the road average wise but they are still a team that puts up runs a still team that plays overs and Marsh again both of these guys last seven one's at 510 one's at 547 for the Aras and again back to the batting average against if you're going to get teams hit 270 280 against you men will be on base and both of these guys are putting one and a half on base no I think this is a I think this is an over by the fifth inning this is a 44 by like the fifth two pitchers I like Marsh a little better than Allen I think is just bad uh this been bad all season Marsh had some you know like a typical pitcher looks good has a rough outing every five starts uh maybe lean a l Casey but I'm gonna go over the uh the totally in this one here I there's no other way to I I can't take a um a side hard but over eight and a half for me again first half whatever the first five is over you want to go over probably a three and a half or four if it's eight and a half for the game right probably what be four and a half for first four and a yeah give me the uh give me the over eight and a half here in this one yeah the yeah this is a for Cleveland this is a really a a tough day because they're going with Sandlin in the first game and he's a reliever so the only thing I can figure is their manager is already predetermined who's going to come out of the bullpen game one and and also then in game two okay so I mean I think it's already set because you're not going to pitch uh you know guys in two different games so that that adds a little bit to the quandry as to how to how to look at this one and obviously you know they're separated I think by just two games in the standings here so myself you know I the pitch I'm not GNA disagree with you at all because I I could definitely agree on an under me an over but I just look at it this one despite the fact that Cleveland's been really terrible uh in recent years in double header games that was when they had uh teams that weren't as good as this one I'm I'm going to say whoever loses game one comes back and takes game two so that's a lame kind of a lame H pick yeah but that's you that's where I'm going that's it that's why I always say like if you I say take whatever team you like twice because they'll probably split out you know but the proverbial you know after the fact we could say hey they won take so and so game two and you mentioned them being what two three back that's what happens when you go 15 and seven the Royals go and and and they beat teams they got to beat and they knock wins since July 28th haven't this little runoff for Cleveland talk about shrii they win five in a row then they drop seven straight thg five more wins then they lose six to seven and then they just picked up a couple here to last I mean the inconsistency that is not going to win you this division I mean you got here come the Royals you got the twins lurking uh nice start to the year everybody was pumped up like oh look at this they could hit the ball yeah well that that ended and you got three pitchers with five plus eras not uh not really bad that you know all those starters that they've lost you know I mean it's just it's just too bad and then I mean the offense definitely an improved offensive team compared to the last several years but you know like I say now there's there's just more holes in the lineup on a daily basis so that's why their offense seems to be going you know up and down all the time now so uh thank God for that Bullpen I mean you know I mean if if if they didn't have what they have with the bullpen uh Cleveland would be nowhere near where they're at yeah that guy clay has been unbelievable yes all right official plays for the show I'm going over KC Cleveland eight and a half Doug is on the Seattle Mariners minus 127 seven- two run in free picks last Today in Sports week who you care you know we're going two and 0 today folks all right for chip 1956 they'll go New York Yankees today purchased the contract of Enis Slaughter from the Kansas City Royals how about that that's out there buying Hall of Famers that's that's that's 50s baseball for you just you think free agency was bad back then he an just buy guys off teams ridiculous Reena Slaughter I mean how old was he at that time probably he was probably 65 listen for uh 599 bird football 249 wrest of Major League Baseball Doug Seattle me Kansas City over back tomorrow we'll see mystery de guest perhaps we know you got to tune in to find out hit the like button leave a comment good luck everybody thanks for watching byebye