A Trump Election Win Could Bring Back Inflation, Allianz Economist Says

Published: Sep 11, 2024 Duration: 00:01:29 Category: News & Politics

Trending searches: who is winning the election
In our scenario, there's still a few bucks a coin between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. If Donald Trump were to be re-elected to the US, he's very inflationary. And so I think that would cause the Fed to stop. And that is the loosening cycle that is so, so far as, for example, initially we thought, okay, the next influences three days after the election, that would be anyhow a pause because we know it's going to be a contested election no matter who wins, right? So, so we were bit in the camp that maybe they should frontload. But and I think that's what the market is getting to grasp with. And that's why that's super interesting. Now, it looks maybe because of the polls also that there's going to be a very gradual loosening, which is really what the US need to do. This is the forward guidance 1 to 1. This is getting away from that dependency, which was really a mess when it comes to how markets reacted to this. Look at the bond volatility. And to me, I think that's why it's switching the odds of going back to something much more orderly than trying to get something through. Because indeed, where Trump should be elected, there is a risk of inflation picking up again very strongly in 2025 in the US. Right. So now what is out there is at least 75 basis points till the end of the year. And then, you know, 25 is the big question mark for us. It's these five rate cuts that Marcus showed, but it's really a question mark because Trump could actually bring back tariffs, inflation, labour inflation and certainly also the devaluation of the dollar is a big issue when you think about how much imported possession could bring to the U.S.. So that's why Marcus Markets don't know much about because nobody knows who's going to win this election.

Share your thoughts

Related Transcripts

Trump Hints He Could Back Out of ABC Debate With Harris thumbnail
Trump Hints He Could Back Out of ABC Debate With Harris

Category: News & Politics

Dnc last week, bringing the total tally above $500 million since president biden suspended his campaign. let's discuss with gregory korte, senior white house and politics correspondent joining us from washington. the tally alone is impressive the let's talk about the makeup when it comes to first-time... Read more

Recent Pennsylvania Polls (Sept 3-6) | Trump vs. Harris | 2024 Election Trends thumbnail
Recent Pennsylvania Polls (Sept 3-6) | Trump vs. Harris | 2024 Election Trends

Category: News & Politics

In pennsylvania one of the key states in the 2024 election the presidential race is getting more intense than anyone expected kamla harris and donald trump are the two main candidates and the competition is very close every vote will make a difference the polls show a very tight race and with so much... Read more

Pope: Trump and Harris intervention thumbnail
Pope: Trump and Harris intervention

Category: News & Politics

Ambed du sono contro la vita sia quello che butta via i migranti sia quello che uccide i bambini ambe due sono contro la vita non si può decidere io non può dire non sono statunitensi non andrò a votare lì ma sia chiaro sia mandare via i migranti sia non dare ai migranti capacità di lavorare non dare... Read more

Presidential Debate was a waste of TIME #fiscallyspeaking thumbnail
Presidential Debate was a waste of TIME #fiscallyspeaking

Category: News & Politics

In the eyes of fiscal responsibility last night's presidential debate between kla harris and donald trump was a complete waste of time and i'll show you why many would argue that a country is only as good as its fiscal policies and how it spends its money we're going to look at this fiscal problem and... Read more

Actor Joseph Gordon-Levitt Speaks Out Against Tax Cuts for the Rich thumbnail
Actor Joseph Gordon-Levitt Speaks Out Against Tax Cuts for the Rich

Category: News & Politics

So donald trump wants to give me $70,000 in tax cuts per year and by the way he doesn't want to give that to everybody uh but i just read that's the average tax break for the top 1% if donald trump is elected president $70,000 and you might say well he's going to give tax breaks to everybody but not... Read more

Trump v Harris: US debate in three minutes thumbnail
Trump v Harris: US debate in three minutes

Category: News & Politics

Kla harris let's have good debate see you have fun thank you in springfield they're eating the dogs the people that came in they're eating the cats they're eating they're eating the pets of the people that live there and this is what's happening in our country i just want to clarify here you bring up... Read more

BREAKING NEWS: DONALD TRUMP ALLY MATT GAETZ DEMANDS ANSWERS ON SPECIAL COUNSEL'S LEGITIMACY! NEWS thumbnail
BREAKING NEWS: DONALD TRUMP ALLY MATT GAETZ DEMANDS ANSWERS ON SPECIAL COUNSEL'S LEGITIMACY! NEWS

Category: News & Politics

Welcome back to prime news america your go-to source for all the latest political updates today we dive deep into a brewing legal controversy that has the political world buzzing representative matt gates one of donald trump's most vocal allies is raising serious questions about special counsel jack... Read more

EXPOSED: Trump Fact-Check Uproar #shorts #trump #news thumbnail
EXPOSED: Trump Fact-Check Uproar #shorts #trump #news

Category: News & Politics

It was 3 to1 it was a rigged deal as as i assumed  it would be because when you looked at the fact   that they were correcting everything and not  correcting with her there is no state in this   country where it is legal to kill a baby after  it's born president trump as you know the fbi   says overall... Read more

Trump channels Reagan to counter Harris' abortion ban: 'There she goes again' #shorts thumbnail
Trump channels Reagan to counter Harris' abortion ban: 'There she goes again' #shorts

Category: News & Politics

The freedom to make decisions about one's own body should not be made by the government thank you vice president harris well there she goes again it's a lie i'm not signing a ban and there's no reason to sign a ban because we've gotten what everybody wanted democrats republicans and everybody else and... Read more

The View's Ana Navarro Praises Liz And Dick Cheney For Speaking Out Against Donald Trump #shorts thumbnail
The View's Ana Navarro Praises Liz And Dick Cheney For Speaking Out Against Donald Trump #shorts

Category: Entertainment

Look it's hard it is hard when you are a republican when you and particularly when you're a cheney when you're with some somebody who's been in politics your entire life since the womb to do something which feels disloyal to this party that's been part of your life forever but these are special circumstances... Read more

President Trump in Mosinee, WI thumbnail
President Trump in Mosinee, WI

Category: News & Politics

Ah thank you very much everybody this is an honor lot of crowd this is look where that crowd goes this is a big crowd a very special hello to wisconsin we really appreciate it we've had great success here we've had tremendous success and i'm thrilled to be back in this incredible state with the thousands... Read more

Trump during debate says Harris ‘hates Israel,’ ditched Netanyahu’s address for ‘sorority party’ thumbnail
Trump during debate says Harris ‘hates Israel,’ ditched Netanyahu’s address for ‘sorority party’

Category: News & Politics

She hates israel she wouldn't even meet with netanyahu when he went to congress to make a very important speech she refused to be there because she was at a sority party of hers she wanted to go to the sority party she hates israel if she's president i believe that israel will not exist within two years... Read more