NFL Week 1 Anytime TD Picks for Ravens vs Chiefs & Packers vs Eagles | NFL Props & Predictions

[Music] the NFL is just over a week away from returning so let's talk some touchdowns shall we only one player has minus odds in the opening game between the Ravens and the Chiefs and that's rv1 Isaiah Peko Derk Henry follows suit at plus 110 in his first ever game as a raven and perhaps most notable on this list rookie Xavier worthy coming in at plus 185 and having better touchdown odds than Rashid rice rice had seven touchdowns in his rookie season and really cemented himself as one of M homes' most reliable options as we welcome in Joe Gant to the show Jill keeping in mind we're gonna we're going to do this bet or pass and talk about the odds right now because obviously we talked about early on how some of the odds are a little too short because DraftKings might be just wanting you to bet the touchdowns there they're the only ones right now that currently offer touchdown betting odds but we're going to look through this we're going to comb through it thatp top 10 look through our Best Bets give out one bet we like in these games this one and the Friday game between the Eagles and the Packers and then maybe a Pass based on the market at hand I'll kick it to you first though in this Chiefs Ravens game your bet yeah I mean first off what a change right like how the tables have turned where now you're hosting me talking touchdowns this is awesome uh yeah I think we got to start right on the chief side uh Charlie we're going to go with Old Faithful I think we have to take Travis Kelce for an anytime touchdown it's around plus 115 plus 120 now again kind of matchup proof he completely torched the AFC title game I love that picture it's Taylor's boyfriend right there uh again the Ravens ranked top five in defensive dvoa last year versus the tight ends and it didn't matter because Kelsey is matchup proof he had 11 catches had a highlight touchdown catch on All Pro safety Kyle Hamilton and when you look at the history of the way that the Chiefs start Seasons he's just been a stud in week one until last year when he had to miss the first game due to a injury he had scored a touchdown in week one in four straight seasons and then again seeing the odds around plus 120 plus 115 really anything that's plus odds is kind of where I'm looking at because last year when I tracked the anytime touchdown odds for Travis Kelce his his touchdown odds were all minus odds in all 15 games he played so anytime you're looking at Travis Kelce especially at the start of the Year where he's a little bit older I imagine he won't be as dinged up as much as the season goes uh anytime you can get a healthy Travis Kelce to start the year doesn't really matter who the defense at plus money I'm going to take it so Travis Kelce anytime touchdown is who I would bet for the opening game of the 2024 season yeah I totally Echo this one I to see the plus money next to Travis Kel's name and like if you also think about what's going on in this Chief's locker room right now we don't know the status of Rashid rice does he get suspended entering the season that's a possibility they just bring in Juju Smith Shuster so maybe Hollywood Browns injury is serious and he's not going to be back for week one and potentially even longer there's a lot going on in that wide receiver room but there's one constant and it's Travis Kelce being there and at plus money I'm echoing your sentiment here I love this bet on Kelce to get the job done early on and we saw how he was in that AFC Championship game in particular but now let's look on the other side of things let's look at who we want to fade in this matchup you're going to go down the list a little bit and Target a Ravens Receiver right and I think the main thing that I want to get offer as a disclaimer here is this isn't me saying that this player won't score me saying that where his odds are and based on the way that he's been used in this offense it doesn't match up so the first guy that I look at is Rashad baitman he's around plus 350 I was hoping that that would be closer to around plus 450 for expected odds because he only had one touchdown catch last year and even though he was a first round pick he's just not really impacting the offense he played less snaps per game last year the Nelson agalar and Z flowers uh his yards per route run for example actually drops versus man coverage and the Chiefs played man coverage at a top five rate last year and he mostly lines up outside could be matched up with Trent McDuffy on occasion and when you look at this Ravens offense they have so many weapons to choose from from both running and throwing the ball that when you actually break it down baitman looks to be probably sixth in the pecking order to score so again I have expected odds for Rashad baitman over plus 450 I also believe based on that AFC title game the Ravens are not going to get caught with their pants down again they're going to run that ball as much as possible they only ran it 18 times in the AFC title game where they averaged 31 carries per game last year which was first in the NFL I think the upside of passing touchdowns for the Ravens offense is quite limited once you get past Z flowers and Mark Andrews so Rashad baitman at plus 350 there's just not enough odds value for me at this stage if you can get it at plus 450 or better great but at plus 350 I would fade Rashad baitman yeah I think this is one of those things that I mentioned earlier about maybe the odds being you know juic down a little bit too much here and you're getting the tax of the week one everybody wants to get involved so they can get away with maybe extending a 100 100 cents on the uh Rashad baitman touchdown closer to your fair odds but my pass and and this is the same thing as you said right like I'm not going to say this guy's not going to score a touchdown but then based on the current odds at hand and what we know Xavier worthy I think is just way too low here at plus 185 I the fact that you look at this matchup and yes if rash is suspended then it's like okay a lot of things change but as of right now you're working under the assumption that he's not you're working under the assumption that Maris Brown is not playing so wory enters as wide receiver two maybe three but there's so many Ms to feed just like in Baltimore and when you look at and you break down the Red Zone options Peko Kelsey uh Rashid rice are all going to be top three guys Rashid rice had seven touchdowns the yearo really came on strong in the second half of the Season wory profiles more of a deep threat a guy that can break off a big one want and explode you look at his numbers in Texas he had just five touchdowns in 14 games I really don't understand how he's sub two to one here this one also feels like another tax one where you're getting you're you're you're paying a discount or you're paying taxes just to get in on the Xavier worthy hype train during the preseason when really it should be north of 2 to one and you know based on the mouth mouth the feed in this Chief's offense and how good the Ravens defense is it seems unlikely that Worthy is worthy of this price no worthy is worthy of this price I think what I call it Charlie is the cheaps premium uh basically if you want to bet a chaps touchdown scorer you're likely going to have to bet it at steam dods especially guys like a Pacho or a Kelce so whenever you could see a Kelsey out of plus odds it's kind of the time where you want to jump back in like Rashid rice I just want to remind people Rashid rice last year was plus 450 in week one to start the season against the Detroit Lions before he scored that touchdown and there's a lot of debate coming into the year is it going to be rasid rice is it going to be Justin Ross it's Sky Moore's turn to emerge uh Marcus Valdes scaning is going to be able to come back and be more effective in this offense and you saw that pretty much it was Rashid Rice's job from week one onward and so for Xavier worthy to have plus 185 that to me is wild to come into the year I really think we were looking for something over plus 200 given the fact that we just don't know where he's going to be effective in this offense so I think you're saying the same thing he might score but at Plus plus 180 I think you have to pass on week one until we see how involved he is in this offense right even in the the Red Zone packages it's like would I expect Xavier worthy to get in over maybe like a bigger body like Justin Watson like I I don't understand maybe you're just expecting an exploding game but the Chiefs receivers again had just 100 receiving yards against the Ravens in that AFC Championship game I looked at this thing I was like Rashid rice has higher odds I had absolutely I was just utterly shocked based on the market at hand but there you go our bet and passes for this Thursday night football game to kick off the NFL season let's look at Friday night's Top 10 scoring leaders as well and you look at the board and pairan new faces lead the way in the touchdown Market Josh Jacobs saquon Barkley plus 110 and 115 respectively and you'll notice there's a lot a lot a lot of eagles early on and that makes sense given this Dynamic offense go down the board a bit and you're going to see a trio of weapons for Jordan Love Christian Watson plus 175 Jaden Reed Romeo dos those three rounding out the Packers top five of odds and of course Jordan love to rush in a touchdown at 340 as well so Jill you're going to give me your bet and I think we're going to have a little bit of a disagreement here later I but I'm not going to give it away too much tell me who you like to score in week one right and with the Packers and Eagles I think you immediately look at the top of the odds and you see a lot of steam but the one guy who didn't get enough steam in my opinion is Jaylen Herz for an anytime touchdown because it's around plus 130 now Herz it's pretty chalky but he's been one of the most consistent touchdown scorers in each of the last two years he ranks in the top five in Red Zone carries inside the 5 yard line in each of the last three seasons last year he scored 15 touchdowns 10 and 17 games in 2022 he scored nine of 15 games I'm just not as uh I guess I'm not as overblown by tra or uh Jason Kelsey retiring because while I do consider him a great center it's not like the rest of the offensive line was just a bunch of Scrubs there's still a top five offensive line with or without Jason Kelce and much like Travis Kelce uh Jaylen Herz he had minus odds a lot last season 12 of 17 games his average anytime touchdown odds last year for Jaylen Herz was minus5 so again very much a matchup proof type of uh scoring position when they get within the five yard line if Jaylen Herz is at anything or over plus 120 in my opinion that is the time when you want to bet him especially in a week one game against the Packers where it's probably a little bit easier of a matchup for him considering that the Packers actually are a little bit worse against the run compared to the secondary and defending the pass right it's it's interesting you know Hertz and the Eagles offense as a whole in just a bit my bet is going in the opposite direction here so we'll we'll table this to the side and we'll talk about my bet going to the Packers side of things the guy I like in this matchup is Jaden Reed at plus 225 and you know his odds are right around Romeo dos' but I think there's a clear number number two in this offense behind Christian Watson who has garnered a lot of the Red Zone targets and is their most explosive guy but he also carries that injury risk Jaden Reed really came on as such a dominant dual threat in the second half of the Season he fin ended the season in his last eight games with six touchdowns 75% of those games he scored a touchdown he was really really Dynamic that was regular season not postseason by the way can run the football extremely well is is such a threat in the slot and the short game eight Red Zone targets inside the 10 the last season which was second on the team one behind Romeo dos I just think this number is way too long where you can attack the Eagles in the middle of the field Jaden Reed has really come on strong Josh Jacobs filling in the role for Aaron Jones has just led to this Packers offense remaining Dynamic I think we could see fireworks in this game so getting a guy like Jaden Reed north of 2 to1 I was expecting him closer to you know that 195 range where we saw maybe the Rashid Rises of the world and the fact that he's you know 40 50 cents more than Xavier worthy I have to throw on uh Jaden Reed here I just the explosiveness from him is just too much for me not to pass yeah it's interesting with Jaden Reed because you know that for the most part he's either gonna line up in the slot he rarely lines up outside and a lot of the time when the Packers go with two wide receiver sets they usually go with Christian Watson Romeo dobs on the outside uh but the one thing about Jaden Reed is that he actually is top five in the NFL in screen passes he was as a rookie and a lot of the things too when you look at the Red Zone targets for a full season scope and you see Romeo dobs he has 18 Red Zone targets led the team last year but if you actually look at a game by- game breakdown nine or Pard me eight of those 18 Red Zone targets were just in the first three games and those were games that Christian Watson did not play so I'm not as uh in love with Romeo dobs and how effective he's going to be in this offense especially if Christian Watson is healthy and back playing which is why I think Jaden Reed is more of that specialty type of weapon the fact that we're getting it over plus 200 I think is pretty good value for Jaden Reed so I just wanted to point that out that Romeo dos even though he did uh lead the team in Red Zone targets most of that damage was done earlier in the season before Jaden Reed fully took off yeah and while Christian Watson was hurt of course we know Christian Watson is returning the Packers are going to be a fun offense to keep an eye on but we're going to table the Green Bay talk aside we're going to go sell and with buying uh jayen Herz Jill you're fading a Philly wide receiver yeah and I'm really trying not to come off as a hater here because I love this wide receiver and I am a Cowboys fan I would only have him right below CD lamb but right now AJ Brown for an anytime touchdown at plus 115 I would pass on that I think it's a bit overvalued for what we've actually seen on the field with him as an eagle because yes he has 31 Red Zone targets over the last two years but when you look at the the scope of who he's compared against it's actually outside the top 10 over the last two seasons but he's still being priced like the wide receivers of like Tyreek Hill or CD lamb or Travis Kelce when he's not really being used the same way another reason why I don't really love Brown in this matchup is the Packers defense Green Bay much weaker last year defending the run but their secondary is nearly back to full health they signed Xavier mcken at safety from the Giants they they were bottom five and rushing yards allowed um I mentioned this about the Jaylen Herz bet which is why I'm looking more for the rushing attack on the eagle side than the passing attack also the Packers they got a new defensive coordinator that brought Jeff Halley in from Boston College he's known to be more of a specialist in defending the pass and the pack Packers they ranked bottom 10 defensive DVA defending the pass last year so um there's going to be a much more Improvement in that secondary and so again this isn't me saying that AJ Brown won't score this is me saying at plus 115 for an anytime TouchDown for AJ Brown you'd be better served to take Jaylen Herz at plus 130 or take saquan Barkley at Plus 15 instead yeah and so speaking of you know passing on AJ Brown and you know jayen Herz you were buying I'm going to pass on the entire Eagles here uh you look at the odds I just listen I I understand it's like all right they're going to score they like no duh they're going to score and they're probably going to score two to three touchdowns but my problem is is at the current price of which we see you know AJ Brown Devonte Smith Jaylen Herz saquon Barkley all 150 or lower I have a hard time buying any of these guys at a price unless you want to do a same game parlay and then by all means you know go crazy cu the Eagles are going to score it's just so such little odds for me to get behind any of this because you mentioned right it's like okay they replaced DeAndre Swift now comes in saquon Barkley is he going to get the touches inside the five now that they have a thoroughbred running back in that's stronger and more physical or are they still going to tou push with jayen Herz well H Jason Kelce he's gone is he the reason why the touch F push was so successful or is it just that it's an overpowering thing and somehow the Eagles entire offensive line or serani figured it out Jaylen Herz is a big guy in the backfield maybe that's the reason why but I have so many questions that I want to watch the game and see how everything unfolds before I end up putting money down on guys that I think are a little overpriced and we talk about it right like DraftKings is the only sports book right now with odds available if say in you know two weeks or in a week when we start seeing the odds trickle out from other sports books I see like Devonte Smith get up to like 180 190 I'm going to jump all over that but at the current prices right now I can't get behind the fact that Devonte Smith's around that 140 150 Mark that AJ Brown is closer to 110 than he is 130 etc etc I'm pretty shock I guess my follow-up question to you just based off me passing this is so you're I understand you touched on it a little bit with Jason Kelce and you not being as worried about it but you're not worried about you know sequan coming in and Jason Kelce leaving whether that's hurting jayen Herz at all and you don't want to wait and just see well I I definitely think uh you're on the right track and I think that's why with weak one that's usually when I uh talk about advice on how to approach touchdown scores especially in week one and week two is you kind of want to reduce the amount of bets that you're doing going into those weeks because a lot of it is just information Based on data that we had last year and we all know that data doesn't always carry over and that there are going to be some changes and Jason Kelce is a pretty big change in an offense that relied on him pretty heavily but again when you look at that full offensive line as a whole I still think that if we get to third down it's inside the 5 yard line they spread everybody out Jaylen Herz is a pretty good bet to try to at least go for it a couple of times and at plus 130 I still think that's the rate that you want to go I just think the passing game right now especially because they're going to be going to play in um um Brazil for this game I I just I'm dubious that they're going to be able to just throw all over the uh the Packers especially because the Packers were one of the top five teams in uh Blitz rate last year and Jaylen herz's metrics just dropped off a cliff when facing the blitz now again new defensive coordinator maybe they change it up a little bit but again they're they know the tape they know what they saw last year and that Jaylen struggled against the blitz I imagine they're going to try to get after him and if that's the case then he's probably goingon to have to tuck and run a few more times as a result yeah I I mean I agree with you that I do think that like if you're going if I'm going to concoct the same game parlay which uh I'm probably going to do for this game because it's a standalone I'm going to take most likely Herz or Sequon Barkley on the eagle side of things I think that just based on the numbers that's the way to go but in general if I'm just betting a straight bet here the only guy I'm looking for is Jaden Reed at north of two to one in this one but Joe Gant you know all is right in the world my man we're talking touchdowns football's back it's just a little weird being in the host seat next to you as my analyst oh it's a circle of life man and I'm happy to be back on the show with you and I know that we're going to have a great year better touchdowns all season long let's get it