Can You TRUST Bryce Young & Jayden Daniels In Week 1? NFL Picks & Preview | Action Network Podcast

Subscribe to the New BBOC Channel! what's up college sports fans I'm Stucky I'm Colin Wilson I'm Mike calib I'm Maria Marino I'm Charlie dko and we're excited that the big bets on campus brand is launching its very own YouTube channel you'll be able to find every episode of the bboc podcast live shows and other college sports content on this new channel not only will the channel be dedicated to betting on college sports but you'll also be able to find exclusive interviews with former College athletes college football power range ings and updates on other topics like the brand new college football 25 video game series and the ins and outs of the recruiting Trail all the way down to the transfer portal whether you're into college football college basketball college baseball or any of the college sports we are the home for college sports and bboc is the channel for you make sure you subscribe so you don't miss any of the action I'll see you there what's up everybody Welcome to the Action Network podcast I'm your host Introduction Chris Raybon and this is your NFL week one betting preview for a six consecutive season we will build our Sunday six-pack of best bet with the help of my co-host the prime minister of degenerate Nation a man who went 63% against the spread on his picks last year Stucky stuck welcome to week one good to be back with you how you feeling yeah feeling great I mean uh it's it's go time now like injur report time college football's already started NFL's here we're in the grind uh for the foreseeable future it's a labor of love uh it's tiring but it's a tired feeling that I will never get tired of and yeah I'm excited to go I got my revenge on you last season but now clean slate and the goal as always is just overall as a Duo get everyone in the profit and uh pick more winners and losers as a Duo so uh yeah I'm happy to be back and uh excited to talk some ball all season oh yeah and uh we've been doing this not to toot our own horn but we've been doing what you mentioned for each of those other Five Seasons that we've been doing this so um if you're new here lock let's welcome and let's lock in uh if you're back longtime listener we appreciate you thanks for tuning in again you know the deal we'll get it rocking with the Thursday night football game then we'll hop right in to our Sunday sixpack and before we get into the games just a reminder our friends Chad and Simon over The Favorites Podcast $100K NFL Pick 'Em Contest at the favorites podcast they brought back their free $100,000 NFL pick them contest totally free to sign up at favorites. action network.com it's real easy just five picks against the spread every week so uh one less than we're doing here and top 10 finishers each week get huge cash prizes including a 40K first place prize cash prizes each and every week over $100,000 up for grabs again totally free to play sign up and make your week one picks right now favorites. action network.com all right with that said let's jump into Thursday night the Chiefs vs Ravens Part 1 opener once again it's the Chiefs because they keep winning Super Bowls with this guy named momes Baltimore at KC achieves three-point favorites the total is 47 stuck you're always locked in on the Baltimore Ravens that's your squad so I'm gonna let you uh carry here even though you mentioned the word tired about four times uh in the intro and uh I know that's because you know as our producers struggled to get this thing going you took a little nap on the on the floor so I hope you're hope you're refreshed and ready to go because I'm tired and traumatized of re reliving the one Gus Edwards carrier however many it was uh from the last time these teams played because it was absolutely ridiculous so with that being said uh how do you see this one the the rematch playing out here yeah early season technical difficulties on the back end little Russ that's that's to be expected so I was able to grab a quick little five minute nap so now I'm feeling uh feeling nice and refreshed um but yeah this before we jump into the game because I do think it's relevant I should set up week one as of late unders have ruled the day Week 1 Thoughts and Trends uh in week one over the past few years I think part of that is the defenses are ahead of the offenses part of that is also just more quarterbacks resting in preseason and not getting in sync with the offense for what it's worth 10 teams chose to sit their quarterbacks for the entire preseason the Ravens are one of them along with the Rams Lions Browns Cowboys Chargers Eagles Jets Falcons and Cardinals lions and Rams and Cowboys and Browns actually play each other as for the teams that did just that and you historically have seen quarterbacks you know come out with a little bit of a rust from a production standpoint so keep that in mind in week one and also underdogs in week one uh over the past 10 years have hit it around a 57% clip so underdogs and unders have ruled the day of late in week one doesn't guarantee future results doesn't mean anything going forward but just keep that in mind and I also want to just bring up before we jump into the Chiefs Ravens game new kickoff rules because I'm I'm really excited to see you know I have it modeled out for you know a little over a point uh uptick in scoring but I'm really curious to see number one the Touchback rate number two if any teams it was the preseason you're not going to see anything really in Innovative or unique so I'm curious to see teams like the Ravens who are always ahead of the curve from a special team's perspective with John Harbaugh his background being a special teams coach I'm curious to see what new wrinkles and show up and when right it might not be week one of a regular season game and it might not be the first kickoff you might see it you know teams might hold something back till later in the season although Ravens Chiefs pretty big game as both teams have aspirations for the number one overall seed in the AFC but any any thoughts before I share M on on the new kickoff rules and their impact yeah so I agree uh when I kind of threw the threw it into my numbers it equal about equated to about a point or maybe like 0. n or something like that um and that's in the scoring I think the yardage you know yardage will remain uh fairly consistent so that from what I gathered over the three weeks of the preseason it was about a two yard difference in field position uh so I think it was like uh the starting field position was on average I think the 28 um and that's uh going against other preseason just for consistency so I I do think it'll make a difference I do think um you know unders or totals I should say early in the year um and you kind of say this every year stuck because they've been changing rules a little more frequently you know there was the penalty changes then there was covid then there was all these things so little early in the year maybe um you know just monitor totals a little closer but this is an underdog under show anyway so um you know we say week one hey we G to be kind of favoring those those sides but really that that's all year but but with that being said yeah I think it's I do think totals should take up a bit but last year the average score was 21.8 per team so I think the average tot 43.6 or seven and part of that was just okay that's just the league average but part of that there's a lot of uh backup quarterbacks who had him start I think 66 different quarterbacks started so there's also just going to be a little bit of a scoring up from what we expect to just be a more normal season in terms of injuries uh this year so that's also something to keep in mind so got to be a little more careful with unders uh early in the year at least to just to monitor yeah Le league is cyclical too offenses you you have modern offenses that defenses are trying to craft unique schemes for we've seen the evolution of that from you know back to your cover two to cover three to you know fangio to now the McDonald r Raven tree we've seen the evolution but the offenses I think eventually when is it going to be are going to maybe take a step forward is this Ravens tree defense the answer to that so that's always fascinating watching Yeah you mentioned it we'll find out number one monitor the kick the kick new kickoff or what that impact is and then if hey there's just a huge emphasis on this penalty right and then what that does and sometimes that's just a short-term effect because then the league just hey forgets about it and it's just the thing early in the season but getting to the Marquee game yeah do you want to add anything I no I was just going to say there's one other thing I think kind of affects it a little is uh two one two Personnel is starting to come in Vogue again which means two tight ends on the field and that can be more efficient but I also feel like it it it's it limits explosives a little bit in certain spots so um that could kind of affect scoring as well so you know that's also something to to kind of Monitor and I think the r that's a good segue into the Ravens because you know do you something has to change with their offense I I mean monin is probably on the hot seat a little more than people think do you think we see more uh Isaiah obviously going to run the ball more Derk Henry but do you see more uh two tight ends and do you think that's could be effective uh in this spot yeah that's a good point that you bring up that's why one of the reasons big nickel a big nickel is uh coming back in Vogue uh throughout the NFL instead of just having like another coverage corner on the field more teams are going to start to utilize a big nickel but uh yeah this game fascina game obviously a rematch of the AFC Championship game where Todd Chiefs vs Ravens Part 2 monin had that heads scratching game plan I'm super curious to see how the Ravens play this um I would assume just psychologically you got to come out you got Derk Henry you have questions along the offensive line right you lost three starters you have a number of rookies you're going to be relying on and you're in a hostile environment the chief's weakness is still their run defense you have lar Jackson in his legs he might be a little rusty throwing the ball I imagine you got to come out here line up and just run the ball with Lamar go to more two tight end sets which I think you'll see this season assuming likely and Andrews both stay healthy so yeah I I expect the Ravens to go with a heavier Rush attack much more obviously than the AFC Championship game but maybe Ain overthinks it and they just say no that's what the Chiefs are going to think I so I'm so curious to to watch that but I think you you got Derrik Henry you have Lamar Jackson his likes hostile environment offensive line questions I I think you got to lean on that run game early with the and but because you know that Steve Spagnola is going to chest this offensive line offens line was a strength last year and he blitzed them and blitzed them and blitzed them in that FC championship game you can expect that again on the other side of the ball when the Chiefs they also have offensive line questions you know rookies starting at one Tackle Spot other Tackle Spot was iffy last year interior obviously is Elite no Hollywood Brown here is worth mentioning I don't think the Ravens are going to Blitz much you don't Blitz Mahomes and I just don't think they're going to be a heavy Blitz team so you know when I look at this game I expect the Ravens to come out with a a good game plan they're always well prepared off of rest season openers John hell's 12-4 against the spread in season openers he's the most profitable coach in the NFL in that department so yeah I think that this game is probably going to start out pretty slow I think the Ravens are going to lean on the run I think the Chiefs are probably gonna you know maybe they take a shot you got worthy um early but I think the Ravens are going to try to keep everything in front of them um so I think this game's get a feeling out process early on and uh so I don't hate like a look at the the first half under I also don't hate teasing the Ravens right like I could give you stats for days on uh you know Lamar as a dog has been dominant like absolutely dominant but Mahomes is a favorite of three or less than a dog is dominant like those wash each other out um so yeah I mean I think this line it's a two and a half Juiced heavily at some places if you wanted to tease this up to you know eight and a half um and we'll talk about other teaser pieces later I don't mind that I think it should be a really good game we're gonna gonna answer some questions we're going to answer Chiefs tackle situation how much worthy can provide at wide receiver the Chiefs secondary right so in their secondary you lose larius need and now you're going to be moving You're All Pro from slot to the outside how that impact everyone moving around in the secondary what does that do to a Chief's unit that was really good last year and then on the Raven side it's that offensive line first and foremost and then defensively it's losing Mike McDonald and his game plans and his adjustments and his unique scheme what is the drop off there big day for Zack or and his preparation here which I'll be looking for so while we know these are two of the better teams in the NFL we know they're going to be players in the AF see there's still a lot of questions um that both teams have surrounding their rosters and staffs in the Ravens case coming into the year that I'm interesting to watch so I think the line is pretty close to uh fair but on based on how I see this playing out you know teasing the Ravens up and uh lean under maybe more of a preference to first half under what do you see yeah I'm I this game to me is the least betable game on the Slate and I've already been getting a lot of questions hey the season opener Chris what are you betting what are you doing for that one nothing because and this is just I'll just kind of set this up you know for newer listeners or even if you're more experienced uh you should probably think about this Prime Time games especially a game like this a Thursday night game there's going to be there's so much action on it um the markets are usually going to be really sharp and if you actually go and into action labs and and look at you know the the cover rates for example for underdogs which we you know tend to be profitable on like Sunday 1 pm that's where they they tend to be highest unders Sunday 1 pm. because there's so many games going on I think for handicappers and book alike it's just harder to kind of um handicap so many things at once whereas like these Prime Time games I just think they're a lot sharper and there's a lot less edges on them so in general if you're trying to really be profitable a game like this is not a game like you need to be betting or feel like you have to make a bet on and you know I know I say that as a person that works for um you know a a betting company but I it's true like these these games are not generally your your money makers I know Stucky you tend to avoid Thursday Night Football altogether if you can um most weeks so um that that's kind of my thoughts on on this one what do you what do you project Lamar Jackson uh pass attempts at by the way let's see uh too high I got got the monin factor now let's see um I have it at well while you're looking that up yeah just uh 32 32 yeah I think that's right around where the market is I was thinking about going under um based on the Ravens game plan Chiefs how they're going to play I thinking this this game's going to be slow um but a lot of it's that's all going to come down to game script I mean if the Ravens are up uh they're just going to go super run heavy if they're trailing then Lamar's going to have to throw it a bunch so you're basically uh you're basically better on them not getting behind or too far behind uh yeah so to summarize I I I would lean under maybe look at first half under based on how I think this game's going to start out the Raven script Lamar maybe some passing uh rust and uh I don't mind a Ravens teas and a good transition because we're going to talk about the Friday night game before we go to the Sunday sixpack I don't mind pairing if you're just looking for a small bet on Thursday and Friday I don't mind pairing I know the total's a little higher but the the Packers and the Ravens in a teaser for your Thursday and Friday games getting both of those dogs up to over eight points yeah because you don't you don't want to bet I I don't think you want to bet straight up on on the Ravens as a dog you know like you said Lamar dominant eight 12- one against the spread as a dog so he's been dominant but then you have Mahomes favored by three or less or an underdog 23 and8 uh with one push 74 % against the spread uh Andy Reid week one 64% against the spread with KC uh and you already mentioned Hardball week one 75% it's it's just strength it's one of those games where you're you're going to see a lot of like betting content out there where you could just pull a so many against the spr sacks it's just a back your case but it works for both sides here should be a hell of a game um but I think Market is generally pretty close to right here yeah there's just there's just a lot of uncertain like you said but I do agree that the Raven I I I think I think it was kind of a message to monin them acquiring Derrick Henry like all right you weren't gonna you weren't gonna hand it to Gus Edwards and uh justice Hill fine we're gonna give you Derrick Henry and you better hand the ball off so I do think that's how they start the game but uh it could go any which way from there uh let's jump to Friday Night Football Packers Eagles Packers vs Eagles in Brazil Eagles favored by two and a half the total is is 49 I'll have a write up on this and you know from my vantage point IE Packers here the Eagles did take some some sharp money um so that that's interesting I do think the Eagles will be a lot better this year too but I I I really really like what I I saw out of Jordan love last year especially over that second half of the season and into the playoffs this Packer team was uh you know they were they were playing really well against tough competition know they they they beat the Chiefs the eventual Champs they were uh they beat the Lions who were the runners up in the NFC they came within three points of beating the ners the eventual uh NFC representative of the Super Bowl uh love you know I think he threw five picks in the second half and playoffs combined with I think 28 touchdowns or something like that so he this is just a a team on the rise and then the Eagles you know they still have their issues um in the secondary but they they addressed those with some draft picks Mitchell dein so it really comes down to me know how quick is this offense for Philly gonna get fixed with with Kell Moore because they couldn't really pick up a blitz last year and the Packers their defense is gonna look different you know they Joe Barry was fired and uh you know they have a new defensive coordinator now uh what's his name halfy I always say his name wrong Jeff Jeff Halley hle hle there you go Jeff Halley excuse me um yeah and you know obviously not not much of a track record or anything like that but I think Barry was just addition by subtraction so I think there's a lot of upside with this Packer team uh what do you see for this game yeah for what it's worth the floor it's been very successful in Green Bay as an underdog I think he's 22 and 10 in that spot covering by about four points per game also very successful early in the year first three weeks of the Season 13-2 against the spread on the flip side Jaylen Herz not been great as a favorite away from home 64- one against the spread last 20 years he's the fourth least profitable quarterback in that department and yeah you mentioned the defenses I think it's a good place to start because you're going to have two defenses that look completely different add some variance into this game which is going to be in Brazil it's going to be hot that add some variance too uh it's going to be super hot there obviously playing in a different country so like preparation travel how does all that play into this it adds some variance but the defenses you're going to have a Vic fangio defense yeah right that's usually complex and take some time there's you know the key to it is you got to get pressure up front you got to win your one-on-one battles there's not going to be a ton of blitzing and the Eagles do have some players on the defensive line Packers on paper have a pretty good offensive line we'll see how that right guard position shakes out uh if it's Jordan Morgan the rookie you played left tackle in college or Shawn Ryan they might even rotate as they did sometimes last year right guard position for the Eagles looks like it's going to be maai beckon so that position for both teams I'm actually looking out for but yeah so the Eagles are are is their defense going to be in sync against these Packers offense that has all these weapons and we're going to see quinan Mitchell most likely in the slot Isaiah Rogers dealing with a bit of a hand injury expect him to probably be out there but he's probably going to start the second cornerback spot opposite Darius slle so yeah I do have some questions on the back end of that Eagles defense Devon white their linebacker will be out for this game so yeah questions there then questions on the Packers defense it's a 180 shift in what they're doing they're gonna under Jeff hafley much more aggressive fourman front uh they're you're going to see more man more quarters coverage I think that does fit their personnel better overall but does it work right away are the linebackers able to adjust with the Personnel shift up front you know there is there going to be some Growing Pains it's like it's not only a 180 ship you know schematically it's also just mindset wise like going from like the Joe Barry like Ben don't break to we're going to be aggressive so can they avoid coverage bus can the Eagles avoid coverage bus so that's um that there's a lot of variance with the defenses in this game so I think the line is a little for a neutral field a little given a little bit too much love for the Eagles Eagles got a ton of love all offse in every market and I think it's gone too far in every Market including this one uh flat three I would lean Packers and potentially play them but I don't mind a teaser here as well but the one thing I will mention with teasers is I don't go crazy with teasers early in the year because there is added variance and teasers you know you want to you want to tease teams across you know three and seven either direction but you're you're getting the most value When there's less variants right so so lower lower total games and maybe later in the season when the Market's more efficient that's when teasers even have more value but I don't mind here look you want some Thursday Friday action I'm probably going to do it myself um this is after Raybon just gave a lecture and you don't have to bet it but uh you want a teaser for Thursday Friday where you're Crossing three and seven with the Packers I show a little bit of value on in the Raven so I think we'll keep it with the one possession fine with it but uh should be a good game both of these games are awesome ways to start the season yeah and the Packers really I think are the only side on this one just because it's a neutral field right so the Eagles are favored by two and a half it it has touched three at certain points maybe you can get a Juiced up three I I'm actually considering just playing a Juiced up three uh for the Packers because three points is a first of all one point you know for for people newer to the show just kind of wondering you know how he do this at one point you know the difference there is a lot bigger than than you might think so the Packers are are right there like they're on the rise we know what they did over the second half of the Season uh they were the better team over the second half of the Season than the Philadelphia Eagles who you know started 10 And1 and kind of fell off my questions are really on the defensive side for the Packers how quickly does their transition you know happen how how quickly does the Improvement happen because every year these last few years it's been they haven't played up to their talent level but on paper I don't I I don't make the Packers more than about a point little over a point worse than the Eagles so to be getting two and a half already you know I think the it's kind of like when I first saw the the line I was like oh the are are the home team that's why this line is like three and then I was like wait a minute it's in Brazil it's a neutral field so yeah I would lean Packers here that's probably I'll probably be on them would love the line to hit three but it probably will not uh again so look out for my writeup on action network.com and in the app but uh yeah Packers other side for me yeah Eagles by the way look Ahad Market not as efficient lower limits but eagles look ahead Market fourpoint favorites at home next week against Atlanta and you're going to tell me they're three-point favorites on in the neutral field against uh the Packers uh that doesn't jve to me so yeah three it's it's uh Packers are nothing no feel I have no feel on the total because I just there's a lot of variance with both of these defenses and uh I'll just have my eye on that eagle secondary the the scheme changes for the Packers how they're picking it up to fit there uh so good good one to watch and good data point for both yeah this I mean the the trends we under uh Prime Time unders 49 or higher since 2005 10979 58% and then Ron torbet will be the referee uh since uh 2020 so the last uh Four Seasons unders in games he's refed 39 and 22 64% so uh with that being said I could see both of these teams putting up a lot of points I think the offense is uh are the strength of these teams for now both of the defenses could be improved that's the thing you just don't know how much so yeah I I I think the total is uh a little shakier and we also mentioned there's going to be variance with the new kickoff rules so I would stay away from the total I think if you're looking for a play in this game it's the Packers either you tease them up or you just play him outright play him on the money line if you want uh it's a neutral field so I don't think you're losing much of an edge there all right if you're new here our Sunday six-pack record speaks for itself uh you know you can go and look at all the picks in the Action Network app they are tracked under the Sunday sixpack account if you go to the follow tab all right let's get into [Applause] Sunday Six Pack it thirsty for Action let's crack open the Sunday [Applause] [Music] sixpack I'm going to go for my first pick of the 2024 week one Sunday six-pack feels weird to say I'm going with the Carolina Panthers plus four against the New Orleans Saints what Panthers vs Saints better way to start off the 2024 Sunday six-pack season then by betting on the Panthers who never LED in the fourth quarter last year uh but I you know week one it's week one is just like in college football week one's tough for me the NFL a lot of times I bet you know I'm betting on these markets have been open for a while um but I don't really have data points spots looking for schematic changes you know so a lot of it I'm just observing how I approach week one for a lot of my bets is I'm looking for some good dog spots the dogs that could be undervalued I'm also just betting on my convictions and and the things that I felt during the offseason and my first first win total bet from our preseason podcast before the draft was the the only one I bet earli was the Panthers over win total and I think they're going to be significantly improved Bryce young can't be any worse than last year but I expect a much better performance especially since this Supporting Cast is better upgrade the offensive line at both guard spots upgrade the wide receiver position by bringing in Deontay Johnson drafting Xavier Legette from South Caro who I actually really like defensively little bit of a talent drain but I trust evero their defensive coordinator you know fangio Tre more cover three heavy but just always well schooled well schemed we'll see if they can generate a pressure I saw that Json got the released today they got to find another Edge guy opposite of Clowny it's a major question mark and that's really what I'm looking for in this game because I do think that they'll be able to generate some pressure only because the saint offensive line is just a mess and I think that's the one unit that is significantly weaker on both teams from last year right now rookie left tackle kicking your left tackle and Trevor Penning over to right tackle he looks like he's just not built for the NFL in certain aspects when it comes to blocking as a tackle Lucas Patrick at guard not sure about that so yeah you lost Ram you lost Hurst you lost a number of guys and you didn't upgrade and you're severely worse there and we know Derek Carr Under Pressure his numbers fall off of a cliff I will mention that these two teams who have gone under seven straight times these teams and in those meetings they've averaged 32 points per game but I do think both offenses will be more modern and professional looking they were two of the they ran two of the lowest rates of both pre- snap motion and play action last year coordinator changes I think you're going to see more of both which will be helpful to both quarterbacks especially Bryce young I think you're G to see him get outside the pocket more get him moving kind of to compensate for his lack of height in the pocket and I think they're going to have some creative ways that they use them that the Saints might not be prepared for Saints dealing with a few more injuries and just to throw some Trends in here I'd like to use trends when they're they're actually applicable to what I'm looking for for and in this case I think the Panthers were a little bit undervalued coming into the year Road underdogs in week one that did not make the playoffs last year so a lot of times it's like hey the market doesn't think they're any good 9059 and five against the spread matches there Titans Panthers commanders Broncos Jaguars Raiders Patriots Cardinals and jets you don't want to play all them blindly but kind of just fits for what I'm looking for and divisional dogs man week one divisional dogs 60% past 20 years 70% past 10 years and one of our favorite trends that we always mention Derek Carr and Dennis Allen as favorites have not had much success Dennis Allen 8 and6 against the spread as a favorite Derek Carr as a favorite of more than a field goal right around 30% against the spread sample size close to 30 games so I like the Panthers to keep this close hopefully they'll have their first fourth quarter lead in more than two years give me Carolina plus4 yeah I love everything about this pick this would have been my first if you didn't take it so uh congrats that's what you get that's what I get for uh losing the contest last year I didn't get first pick didn't get to pick the panther you say that now you say that now but it's the Panthers you might be I might be uh you might be the lucky one not having Panthers when we come back here next week I am known as the panther Whisperer and I I approve of this pick so you know I I also bet the Panthers uh win total in like April or May I bet the Panthers to win this division uh I just think Canalis coming over from Tampa as the head coach you know it's going to be his offense I think it's going to be night and day schematically but I also you know you mentioned getting him out outside the pocket they also spent over hundred million on the interior line Robert hunt from Miami who's a top six guard graded by Pro Football Focus you got Lewis uh as well so it's the the Personnel is improved the scheme has improved and the Saints come to the year with just a terrible on the other side a terrible offensive line and you know that's something that you you mentioned week one you know kind of looking for Trends and convictions and things like that because we don't have as many data points offensive line and pressure tends to be something that is just overlooked by the market all year long so I I I do want to kind of get ahead of this in week one uh with the fade in the Saints and and the fact that it's Derek Carr and Dennis alen is a bonus because we might only have so many more spots to bet against Dennis Allen he is the oddson favorite to the first coach fired we may have only so many more spots to bet against Derek Carr because Spencer Rattler I think at some point if Carr struggles uh the crowd's gonna be chanting his name uh I'm already starting to hear buzz from Saints fans who by the way the athletic did a survey and the Saints are the least optimistic fan base so like usually you're kind of hey Saints fans like I know your team is kind of mediocre but like y'all y'all suck like you just got to blow it up but like they already know that so so uh they they're going to be pining for Rattler if Carr struggles at all it checks down a million times to Alvin Kamar and and then overthrows olave uh eight times in a row on the sideline once they get behind so yeah my bold call Panthers lead wire to wire including the entire fourth quarter all right for my first pick and Titans vs Bears the second overall the week one Sunday six-pack I'm going with the Tennessee Titans plus four at the Chicago Bears and Chicago Bears lot of hype this year should be very improved but I think people are sleeping on the fact that the Tennessee Titans are also going to be uh improved and that's that's something that you know maybe a lot of people wouldn't agree with or you know it just doesn't kind of jump off the page because you lose Mike Vel who I I I don't I don't necessarily agree with with that firing but I think you brought in a good coach in Ryan Callahan who comes over who was the offensive coordinator with the the Bengals you upgraded the skill positions with Tony PO with Calvin Ridley with Tyra Boyd uh and you upgraded two trouble spots on the offensive line which was always your weakness with uh Lloyd cushenberry was a top 10 graded Center and then you have that you have your uh draft pick who you got at number seven who should slide in at left tackle uh wam so uh if you know there's a lot of a lot of improvement on the offense defensively the secondary was a big issue and that that could take some time but you did bring over a premier corner and O jarus Sneed uh AER should at least be able to give you week average play I think he's a little little on the older side now so I'm not expecting much but he's been a top Corner in this week before uh and then you know you got hooker at one spot in the safety but you brought over quandre Diggs who um you know that that could go either way but another guy who's been a quality player in this league you traded for Ernest Jones that kind of went under the radar at linebacker very good linebacker so the defense you know lost some pieces but the defense should still be solid uh could even be very good and you patched up your a bunch of spots on offense so you're giving Levis a a chance to succeed and I think he can be uh a pretty solid quarterback as long as he gets some TI and he's got good skill guys which he has so like everything about what the Titans did in the off season except the brael firing and you know with the Bears I just think the hype has kind of gotten out of hand they're you know starting a rookie quarterback in game number one and they're you know already four-point favorites against a team that's kind of in a a similar boat to them team quality-wise so I like K Williams like what they did around him but still have some questions about the offensive line still going to take a little bit of time uh and just historically number one picks at quarterback have really struggled in their first games uh shouts to our guy Evan Abrams he went back and looked 27 number one picks since the merger in 1970 and their first start 422 and one straight up seven and 20 against the spread that's 27% and uh you know some other trends that kind of support the Titans and we'll probably keep repeating these because they apply to quite a few teams but week W underdogs that won uh between four to six games the prior season 71 and 35 67% against the spread over the past 20 years and since they went to a uh a 17 Game season 11 and3 79% against the spread over the last three seasons so uh lot of trend supporting the Titans uh and I just don't think there's as big a disparity between these two teams uh as you know the the market does so I'll take the Titans as four-point dogs on the road anything higher than a field goal yeah I like this as well um and is Hopkins are you projecting Hopkins to be fully healthy I I we're recording this before I I mean when is Hopkins ever fully healthy uh no but he has a chance to play he has a chance to play um but even if he doesn't I mean you still at least you still have Ridley and I think the thing with Ridley is that you're going to be able to use him in a in a better manner like because last year they had Ridley in Jacksonville playing the X for some reason I don't I don't know why so in in Tennessee you you still have tayin Burks who you can kind of you know a guy who has some talent and just you know couldn't stay healthy and had a kind of rough start to his career but I actually think Burks is gonna have a pretty good rebound season Hopkins healthy or not so you do have some options even if he doesn't play um and that just kind of speaks to the the the way they kind of built up the roster um so there's a lot to like about Tennessee but yeah Hopkins hopk Hopkins would just be gravy and I think if if Hopkins is definitely ruled in you'll probably you might even see this line get down to to three and a half but either way anything over field go give me Tennessee yeah uh I do like this dinard Wilson comes over as a defensive coordinator for the Titans I think that they upgraded their defense mentioned The Corner Spot brought in some veteran safeties Ernest Jones I think it was a good get because outside of Landrew that was a position of weakness you know you you draft sweat to go along with Simmons on the defensive line and dinard Wilson look was with the Ravens last year but this guy that was in his own words he said he's groomed by Greg Williams and Todd BS it's not going to he doesn't want to run you know a mirror of what McDonald in the Ravens run this is going to be more Man heavy on the outside aggressive expect blitzes and that interior that Bears offensive line is a question mark that Titans defensive line the blitzing could cause Caleb Williams into a mistake or two in his first career start but for my second pick and the third overall of the week one Sunday six pack Seahawks vs Broncos I'm fading another rookie quarterback in Mr bonick unfortunately for me this week it's not bonick season I'm going with the Seattle Seahawks minus 6 at home another one of my conviction bets I think the Seattle Team bit undervalued coming into the year my other over win total that bet besides the Panthers was the Seahawks and this is a bet on Mike McDonald his game plans on a weekly basis were spectacular all this time to prepare all off seon home opener uh I think that defense is going to be well prepared well schooled and Confused Bon Knicks into a critical mistake or two you mentioned first overall picks struggling in week one historically all rookie quarterbacks have been about 500 against the spread where you really see a drop off is when they have to go on the road for their first start and like I think they've averaged 18 points per game the last rookie first round quarterback to win on the road in week one was Sam darnold back in 2018 so I think hostile environment here against an improved well schooled defense I think B knck is going to struggle and and I'm not in love with this Broncos roster overall the defense doesn't wow me so I think that Gino Smith will have enough success with that rushing attack and his receivers I think Conor Williams is a chance to play at Center worth monitoring because that's the one thing I'm worried about is the Seahawks offensive line but the Broncos are not a team that I'm overly concerned about going up against when you do have some offensive line questions so uh I think the Seahawks jump out here Force Nicks into mistakes and win by a touchdown plus give me Seattle at home yeah I'm actually higher than the market on both of these teams uh so I'm not going to be betting this game or at least I'm not going to be betting aside on this game uh you I kind of get it with Seattle you know first game for Nicks uh don't love betting against Shawn pyton as a as a dog but I think Gino Smith is kind of being underrated and slept on uh you know it was it was always goingon to be an adjustment period with with Canalis leaving and and whatnot they just they had some bad luck last year so if you're gonna bet on Seattle and bet against p and I think the time is now um just because you know I think the I think the Broncos are only going to get better I I actually like them to go over their win total as well but I do think Seattle's being slept on your boy uh Ryan grub I think should help out that offense help out jto and they got the skill guys their their question marks are really on the offensive line as well and Denver is just I don't really know what I'm getting you know so like I'm bullish about them um but a lot of that is just based on I think the market was kind of rating them at their floor and they even they might be rating them at their floor here plus six against a medoc Seattle Team um but just not enough not enough for me uh either way because I am I am kind of boish on both sides yeah one final note is uh that schematically what the Broncos run and do and their MO doesn't really worry me about some of the things that give Gino fits but where you going for your second pick so for my second pick good segue cuz we just talked about a rookie quarterback struggling on the road but I'm betting on a rookie quarterback on the road uh with Washington plus three and a half at Tampa Bay Jaden Daniels of course in his Commanders vs Buccaneers first start and I I get it you know rookie quarterbacks do tend to struggle on the road but this is just too many points for me uh with a mediocre to below average Tampa Bay team that lost Dave Canal so the same reason we're bullish on Carolina or one of the reasons we're bullish on Carolina's Canalis going over there and I think there's going to be an adjustment period with Baker Mayfield because they they are installing a new offense here there's going to be uh more motion and things like that but it's there's going to be a learning curve uh for this offense you know Godwin's making the switch um back you know to the to the uh to the slot you know there's a lot of changes even compared to last year when the Bucks you know uh outperformed expectations and this Washington team comes in you know get now you're getting more than a field goal uh make sure you shop around for the best number but the three and a halfs are out there uh and I just don't think this Washington team is significantly worse in any way than Tampa Bay you know Baker Mayfield I think a lot of it was Canalis and you're gonna before he came along Baker Mayfield was thought of as one of the worst quarterbacks in the league he was bouncing around between uh the Panthers he lost the starting job then he went to the Rams and had a little bit of a Resurgence so I think it's it's not going to necessarily be uh what you saw last year with Mayfield uh this year going forward Yeah you mentioned the Seahawks were unlucky in Gino Smith last year the Bucks were lucky so you could see regression positive regression for the Seahawks offense negative for the bucks um and in a few aspects you have con who you know is he does have some familiarity with Mayfield from their time in LA but that that year like that was like the Ram's worst offensive year ever when the oneye con was actually coordinator now I know it's generally the McVey show but doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence especially in week one and I just think this Washington team is going to be like there's just a big culture change here uh Dan Quinn you know is he was a guy that we kind of targeted when he was in Atlanta but I even he I think has changed he'll probably have this defense that still uh leaves some things to be desired personnel-wise but he'll have he'll probably have this defense playing a lot better than a guy like Del Rio did a year ago so you know some of the perceived weaknesses you know for this Washington defense so uh could be a little better than expected I'm I'm looking at you secondary uh Tampa Bay's one of their big biggest weaknesses is the interior line you got a rookie at take advantage of that yeah the guards and you got Allen and Payne uh in the Middle with just the two guys they didn't trade away and oh yeah by the way Bobby Wagner lurking behind those guys so H and what does Baker Mayfield struggle with interior pressure so um you know this is a a good matchup for Washington I I think you know with Tampa Bay's defense it's it's hit or miss you know Todd BS should have them playing all right but with Jaden Daniels that's kind of what you want because Tampa Bay you know they have good safeties on the back end but uh Washington they don't really they're not really gonna like they have Terry McLaren and they don't know what they're doing at receiver so you're just gonna you just need a guy like Jaden Danel to run around create some stuff off schedule uh and uh I think that's how Washington stays in it but I think the defense for Washington is a little underrated and the offense for Tampa Bay a little overrated and these were already just two kind of five to seven 8ish wins if you're being generous uh quality teams I think you know Tampa Bay mentioned got lucky uh last year and then they faced the Eagles in the playoffs who were're just on the worst downturn ever so they end up winning a playoff game so I think the perception of Tampa is a little skewed but these are just two below average teams and every year you see a bunch of these teams in that uh in that glut and week one that's why week one dogs really I think kill it is because there's all these perceptions from the prior year are just carrying over and you don't realize that they're just all kind of this is all the same team uh and when that happens underdogs are going to win quite a few of these games so you even though yes you have the the rookie quarterback Trend working uh against you you do a lot of Trends uh benefiting Washington you know week one dogs mentioned it that one between four and six games the prior season 71 and 35 67% Todd B is a favorite of a field goal or more uh seven and 14 just 33% against the spread in his career Baker Mayfield as a favorite of any number 14 and 26 35% against the spread in his career week one road underdogs you already mentioned stuck that didn't make the prior postseason our 50 and 30 63% since 2012 so uh there's just uh a boatload of trend sport Washington and uh you know they got they got the secret weapon just a dual threat uh quarterback uh his name is Coulson yankov and he plays tight ended special team so look out for him yeah it's uh I think it's K it's commanders are nothing here but I'm I'm just I'm not as high on others as others on Daniels told you I think he's Justin Fields but you don't like cff you don't like Cliff either betting on Quinn and Cliff oh my God yeah uh but I do I actually think this is a and it's amazingly it's the Commander's eighth different starting quarterback in week one over the past eight seasons I think that this could be a sneaky over I think BS is going to Blitz try to bring the house the Washington offensive line is definitely shaky that's where daniels's legs can really uh you know have an impact here extending plays extending drives on third Downs buying time and then hitting some explosive plays against a vulnerable group of Corners that Tampa has and on the other side the Washington secondary major questions and you know Tampa saw is very talented wide receivers so I think in this game there's the potential for and you know that Quinn is going to have an aggressive defense and so you know I think there's a potential for a lot of explosive plays in this game which is what you want in today's NFL when you're betting an over because that's where most overs go to Dives when you just have these methodical drives and then I wouldn't be surprised if there's some turnover regression for Mayfield this year if Daniels makes a mistake or two so you could have uh you know defensive score shorter Fields but I think there's gonna be some potential for a lot of explosive plays in this game so sneaky over with lean Washington especially at three and a half I think this lunch should probably be a field goal but for my third pick and the fifth overall of the Vikings vs Giants week one Sunday sixpack I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings minus one and a half chop around so you can get a one or cheap money line for this contest doesn't matter pushes or losses pushes aren't wins so uh we're always on basic on a half point but uh I like the Vikings here I've gone so I'm betting on uh Gino Bryce young and now Sam Donal on the road weighing points yep feels good to be back uh this this handicap to me is again I'm higher than the Vikings in the market coming into the year and there's a number of things that and that I just really like about this Viking staff that I think are going to come in handy here number one Brian Flores he is GNA have some you know exotic blitzes and coverages cooked up for week one he's going to bring a lot of unique blit is a lot of pressure against Daniel Jones who just completely falls apart when that occurs against the blitz or under any pressure the Giants offensive line dealing with injuries still not that great uh shifting guys all around no continuity even a new offensive line coach Flores is going to take advantage of that yes you have Malik neighbors but I'll take the I mean I look at both these quarterbacks it's a wash and I think that there's even maybe some more upside just with Sam DN he got the work with Shanahan apparently like his footwork is better now he's getting to work with oconnell look what oconnell did with his stable quarterbacks he had to work with last year after cousins went down I mean darnold's better than them and you Addison's trending up looks like he's gonna play Naylor as well you have Jordan Jefferson who's covering them in the secondary uh like what did I say Jordan I think you were you mixed up Justin Jefferson and dramar Jefferson on the Lions and made them into one person jordanis no Jordan Addis okay yeah I'm bugging too yeah next receiver no the Giants yeah the giant secondary is horrendous uh across the board I mean you or I could go out there and throw it to these receivers on the other look the Giants strength on their defense is their pass rush and but the Vikings strength outside of their receivers and look you also have Aaron Jones I think was a big get is their tackles they have one of the better tackle Duos in the league now where this could all fall apart which worries me a little bit about laying points on the road with Sam Darnell which is very scary is if uh Lawrence just causes havoc on Bradbery and that interior offensive line that's exactly what happened in the Giants Vikings playoff game he got pushed back the entire game that worries me a bit but I think they can neutralize their Edge Rush with their tackles no one's going to be able to cover uh the Giants also have some injuries they're dealing with a linebacker no one's be able to cover these receivers on the other end I think Flores is going to cook up some exotic looks pressures confuse Daniel Jones into sacks mistakes and while the the Vikings secondary isn't great they have some veterans they're in better shape than the Giants are in that aspect and the Vikings have a better overall receiver room uh even though I know the Giants Adam Malik neighbors so yeah I like Vikings to get this done on the road alok will have them prepared Flores will have this defense ready to go Daniel Jones just not the answer and and just look compare these two rosters where do you feel more confident about the Giants compared to the Vikings like name the position it's not running back it's not quarterback it's not offensive line it's not receiver um it's you know maybe defensive line then you're going up against a really good Vikings pair of tackles it's not the secondary like the Viking I think uh are just better across the board well coach will be well prepared here Daniel Jones at home too not been great in his career against the number uh so yeah I like the Vikings I'm I'm laying points with Sam darnold on the road what could go wrong I had this game circled because I was like I have to be on the Vikings in this game and then and then I looked at the number and I'm like Jesus we're we're all at one and a half like so the market is definitely sharp here and um I was I was kind of looking forward to this segment because I essentially kind of needed to talk this through about because I I want to be on the Vikings and I think I'm playing Mone for what it's about to say that I'll probably just play the money line as well but for me first of all I was just dismayed watching Hard Knocks and and and just the thought processes that even that they did show I know there's a lot that they didn't but you there was just a lot of errors in the way Joe Shane is thinking about things I just think you know he came from Buffalo and he learned under bean and was all great and and but it's it's a lot easier when you have Josh Allen to build a team and I just think some of the decisions he's most of the decisions he's made haven't worked out and now you know there's the fame he's like oh we're not gonna pay Daniel Jones all this money to hand off to12 million running back or whatever it was first of all you still gave Devon Singletary top 15 money in terms of guarantees and contract but whatever uh the problem is all Giants fans know the reason we love dble is because he came over here and essentially So Daniel Jones just chill check it down if it's not there run it now I I see in the offseason they want they're imploring Daniel Jones to take more deep shots that's when you get into trouble like how do they not know this they already paid the guy $50 million and that was a mistake but how do you not know that like Daniel Jones holding on to the ball is now now now he can read the league in fumbles I think he was he readed the leag and turnovers like first two years in the league uh and then he's he he's accurate short intermediate not bad but deep he's not he's not terribly accurate um so like now you're just introducing all these Daniel Jones mistakes back into the equation and that's what something you didn't even really have even you know for for most of this dble tenure so like that's I don't love that and on top of that you mentioned it the offensive Line's still not good he still takes too many sacks and it's his first like regular season game coming off a serious knee injury so will the will the running be there to bail him out I I don't know will they be comfortable calling as many designed runs I don't know uh you know and there's no Barkley to pay attention to anymore there's no Barkley so now you're playing Daniel Jones and like this is all out there in the open it's like yeah we want Daniel Jones to deep we're gonna pass more so it's like now you're just sitting on Daniel Joe like this is just not what I want to yeah it's it's Vikings or Nothing Even though this this seems like a spot where we would usually be on the dog you know home short home dog week one don't really know anything about these teams but no I think like you said I think the Vikings have an edge in almost every um every unit every aspect and I just I just don't think this is a great match for Daniel Jones I don't think Flores is a great match for Daniel and by the way Flores gonna be a lot more multiple this year because they actually you know on paper maybe the Vikings don't wow you with some of their their their moves but you know Stefan Gilmore Griffin guys AR out of position that you can right right and they can and and and Flores the important thing is Flores is gonna feel comfortable being even more multiple than he was last year where you know I think he played what he dropped three at the highest rate and also played cover zero at the highest rate I think that was a stat Dr yeah drop cover also cover two yeah yeah so now you're gonna be confusing Daniel Jones in addition to all these other things like it just it just sets spells disaster uh for the Giants and then on the other side the Giants weakest unit is a secondary because they put everything into the line so this Vikings team good enough at the tackle spots and the secondary Deontay Banks if he doesn't even if he does make the weep you're not covering Justin Jefferson but Deontay Banks was ranked outside the top 100 Corners last year at PFF he's your number one you're probably gonna start a rookie at at one of the safety spots pretty much everyone on your secondary is unsung it's not like anyone if you're not a Giants fan you could just rattle off the names of of the guys in their secondary I mean they just would they just bring back a Dory jackon like a week before their season and now now he might have to start uh and by the way he was great Tred as one of the worst he was even worse than Banks last year so yeah I said by the way I remember my our offseason I said the Giants should do that why did they wait so long uh I mean obviously yeah because now he's not even been in camping working with these other unsung guys in the secondary I mean he's worked with some of them before but this this could just set up as a disaster um darnold Is Not Great don't like that's why I was like a man laying points on a row with darnold I don't know I don't know it doesn't feel right but it it feels even it doesn't feel any more right like leaving the giant not fading the Giants this week because this is just a terrible match and Minnesota is GNA come out hungry because they schedule after this oh man this might be the only win they get over the first half of the year if things don't play out well for them so yeah I I like the vi can Ling points on the road with San Donell feels right to me because it's like taking an ugly dog it's it's ugly it hurts it stings it's not pretty but where you going for their final pick uh for my third and final pick I'm going Jaguars vs Dolphins with the Jacksonville Jaguars plus three and a half at the Miami Dolphins uh this is just uh a play on the number for me I make this closer to two and a half the the Dolphins are and the Jaguars I they're similar teams so really it's just it's comes down to the home field for the Dolphins and this it's not really you're not traveling if you're the Jaguar both teams play in Florida Dolphins don't have a m dolphins do have a good home field advantage when they play some of those teams like Buffalo and whatnot and I I guess they have the sideline thing with the shade on one side it's whatever we get they should be the favorite fine but uh I think the Jaguars are being undervalued in this spot uh the Jaguars got really unlucky last year Trevor Lawrence I think is a lot better than his numbers showed especially last year because he's had I think the most drops over the first three years of any quarterback uh just a lot of unlucky things going down in the red zone for Jacksonville last year but on paper like or not even just on paper like if you look at how you know both of these offenses like Miami has the flashy guys you know the tyreeks and the uh Hans and whatnot but Jacksonville very solid skill position corpse etn at running back uh really like Brian Thomas Jr at wide receiver remember their wide receivers were banged up last year um Christian Kirk you have uh they brought in Gabe Davis great run blocker um so he and he could be the number five option now you know so it's not like in Buffalo where they were counting on him to be the number two or three guy he's your probably your number five because Brian Thomas has looked good Kirk is uh you know out outplayed expectations and uh Ingram's been a beast etn you can use him uh you can move him all around uh uh and then the offensive line a lot of injuries last year should be better was bad last year um the uh defensively uh Jacksonville is you know they always kind of we you wanting on that side of ball but I think Jacksonville has enough pieces there um you like you're not going to always completely stop Miami but uh you know Derby it's early in the year so as as long as he's healthy I think he might be an upgrade he still got Campbell on the other side uh Johnson's played well at times in the slot I like the linebackers Lloyd and alua Kong ALU Aon you're still looking for that another Edge rusher but you added Armstead uh on the interior you still got Hines Allen so there's pieces there you added Savage on the sacket there so I think Jacksonville overall just going to be a lot better than they were or or better than they were last year and this was already what a nine and8 team last year and Miami's kind of a similar type of team and when they play teams like this you know the the the narrative is Miami can't be great competition but when they play kind of similar teams a lot of times even if Miami wins it's like one point two points we saw that last year week one they play the Chargers uh they win by two points uh they play the Cowboys weight in the year they win by two points so uh Miami weighing three and a half at home it's just too much you know three I could understand it a little bit more I would still I would still be on the Jaguars uh if I had a pick a side but three and a half you're just begging me uh to take Jacksonville and I will oblige wouldn't be surprised if the Jags uh win this game outright it's just just a matter of you know is is Tyreek Hill gonna just go off for like four explosives or you can liit him to like two explosives uh that might that might decide it but I I think think these teams are too evenly match for Miami to be weighing three and a half in a in an interstate game yeah would would lean that way it's good good uh lot betting game in my opinion like it's hard to see like who's getting stops in this game that the Dolphins aren't going to have their the Dolphins have a long list of injuries that I'm monitoring oh my God their defense man like even down to like Ramsey uh so I'm monitoring that um which works in the favor of your side espe with the hook and like but can the Jags you know they the Dolphins offensive line is questions but two is just going to be getting the ball out quick can the Jags SEC secondary actually cover these receivers in space I have my concerns it's a new defensive scheme as well uh Dennis Allen sure you're going to see more man uh and I don't know if they have the dudes I mean Darby's not getting any younger um so but on the other side the Dolphins you know without Phillips without chub I think to get pressured that's what we need to do to to lawence is you have to get pressure and his numbers fall off a cliff I'm not sure the Dolphins can get pressure here so it's hard for me to see either defense really having sustained success um I don't really like betting overs week one um but if I had to I would look at the over and said I'm I I much prefer the Jag side at the but team goes up got the team that's behind you know uh I think it's a good live betting game uh betting on the chaser because I think that both offenses will have a lot of success I don't think the defenses uh have a lot to offer in form of resistance so I like it there so what's uh what's the recap so you have the Carolina Panthers Sunday Six Pack Recap plus four the Seattle seah minus 6 and the Vikings minus one and a half I have the Titans plus four the Washington [ __ ] Commander football team plus three and a half and the jack Jaguars plus three and a half so you have Bryce Young Gino Smith Sam darnold I have will Levis Jaden Daniels in his first start on the road and Trevor lawen so we have one oneish respectable quarterbacks at least coming into the year uh I like you yeah exactly the way we like it that's our week one Sunday sick pack and for this week's coaches pep talk we're going to go to actor Coach's Pep Talk Kevin Dunn in the mockumentary any given Saturday afternoon and we got to dedicate this one to the Carolina Panthers we are fighting a global fight for a share of people's TVs we need to make this sport more exciting you are not losers you are not dorks you don't suck what you do is not stupid and worthless and I don't give a [ __ ] who tells you that I don't care if it's your kids your wives your parents you go up and you tell somebody you're an athlete that [ __ ] shouldn't be laughing it's going to be the greatest Underdog Story in the modern sports era now that is a hell of a story so best of luck to the Panthers uh even though you got him in the contest stuck I I'll be on them as well and very bullish on them season long as well so we need the Panthers to get off on the right foot you are not losers all right let's get into our favorite over under of the week all right stuck you went first in six-pack so the way we do it we switch it up for the total so I'll go first here I'm going Steelers Falcons under 42 Steelers vs Falcons and a half and uh I might get to 43 so I'm not in a rushed about it um 42 is not really a key number so uh it could jump around 41 and a half 42 42 and a half I don't really care but on the off chance it gets to 43 that would be nice but the reason I like this under is because something some of something you kind of alluded to stuck you're gonna see some Rust with these quarterbacks who didn't play in the preseason and Kurt Cousins not only didn't play in the preseason but he's coming off an Achilles injury for which we just don't have a large sample size of guys even coming off this I like I usually have to go back to Dan Marino to even find a quarterback uh coming off a serious when you know Rogers this year but we haven't seen anything from him yet either and he's in a new offense you know new new weapons I also think that this matchup plays into Pittsburgh's hands defensively because Atlanta in this new scheme which I I think ultimately will benefit them relative to you know Arthur Smith who is in Pittsburgh right now but I think it's easy to prepare for so because you're running like what 95% 11 personnel so you know Pittsburgh the defense is the strength of this team they've had all off season Arthur Smith is in the building so he's familiar with a bunch of players on this roster I think it's that's an advantage Pittsburgh in ter so an advantage uh defense because I don't think Pittsburgh's offense is GNA do much uh either way you know Russell Wilson is cooked uh maybe he gets benched mid game but he's cooked they didn't trade for auk uh the Falcons you know the defense should be treading up I I do think uh it'll be better than last year but um you know could could take some time with Simmons you know Simmons is new but you did add judon so at least have some siblings of a pass rush uh you still got Grady Jarrett and anim ma Terrell's good corner so um you have some some good pieces on Atlanta against Pittsburgh I think this matchup even indoors not scary at all Pittsburgh offensive line has been uh pretty bad all preseason guys are banged up for them and in Pittsburgh you know I talked about it it it just plays into them their their hands defensively because it's easier to prepare for one- one Personnel you know that means what are you do you're gonna you're gonna chip Kyle pittz on Watt or like what are you doing there it's it's harder to give help uh you know to your to to to to Watt to your tackles on Watt and you got a A a tall Corner in Porter 62 a quality Corner who can hang with Drake London you got you know minker Fitz Patrick you got uh Patrick Queen so you can handle Kyle pittz and you have that defensive line which uh you know Atlanta's offensive line I would consider a strength overall but you have Hayward you have Watt on that defensive line so I I just think Pittsburgh's Defense matches up well I think Atlanta will be rusty I think Atlanta's defense at least Personnel wise uh is is improved and this Pittsburgh offense doesn't scare me at all and for all we know Russell Wilson could be even worse than Kenny picket Mason Rudolph Mitch Tris Mitch Bortles excuse me last year and uh and this is Arthur Smith so it says underwritten all over it for me yeah I do think in know in a odd way both offenses are going to be improved schematically because the falcon are improved by upgrading a coordinator by moving on from Arthur Smith yeah yeah but the Steelers are also upgrading by getting Arthur because that's how bad uh Matt Canada was uh it wouldn't be a pod or our podcast if we didn't mention Mike Tomlin is a underdog I have to mention that he's 59 35 and four against the spread as a dog 63% most profitable coaches Underdog over the past 20 years now our producer can insert a Tomlin clip the standard is the standard oh wait wait wait wait well while we're on tomat TR I didn't even mention towin uh unders when he's on the road 55 and 25 since 2014 6 a nice 69% uh hit rate towin rode unders when they opened 43 or higher in the first three months of the Season 4213 and one since he became the head coach of the Steelers 76% on a 56 game sample size sorry yes this Steelers way just grind out the game then Force the turnover in the fourth quarter find a way to win um it's what they do every year their one possession record is insane under Tomlin I but I actually think this is a good matchup for the Falcons the thing that gives me slight pause is I don't know what to expect from cousins I have the same pause with the Jets I bet the Jets on Monday night I know you'll have that game written up but I now I'm I'm kind of scared of my bad I was trying to get ahead of uh I was thinking that Williams Endor auk potentially might not play um but now it looks like the Jets without U reic are going to be the team that could be down Personnel wise yeah and you got a you're you're batting wait that's is actually I mean I'm actually curious I guess we're going on a tangent so they might cut this but like you you're betting Aaron roders coming off in Achilles against the San Francisco dline that's like his Kryptonite that's an interesting like bet yeah well I I was trying to get ahead of some of the news and obviously that uh didn't work out but yeah the the Falcons I actually think it's a good match up for the Falcons because they have one really reliable Corner the Steelers have one reliable receiver and the Falcons are going to be switching to a 34 under more of a three-man front under Rim Morris who I like from a schematic perspective and then uh the Steelers injury situation on offense specifically up front Jaylen Warren too uh he's dealing with a hamstring issue that back Field's just not in Arthur Smith you know want's going to run at it's just not the same if you don't have that thunder and lightning combination so if Warren can't go is not fully healthy that's a big hit but the offensive line I mean you have injuries all over you could I think they could be starting Dan Moore who's terrible at left tackle Spencer Anderson at left guard potentially a rookie center that is on the road that is not ideal for week one with all the inj injuries uh that they're dealing with because you have Seal's out hering's on IR Banu is I don't think he's going to be ready week one he just came back um yeah he he was banged up too yeah so it is uh not a good situation in front of Russ um so I do think both offenses would should be better constructed but you know going with a Tomlin under as a dog never a bad idea but for my favorite Cowboys vs Browns total of the week I'm going to go with the Cleveland Browns Dallas Cowboys under 41 that's the last place I'd play it to this under has taken some money uh but there's a lot of things I like about this under both teams in recent Seasons their strength has been their offensive line not the case now and you're going up against defenses that have a lot of juice in the pass rushing Department you know Cowboys going to be starting so I rookie left tackle going up against miles Garrett that's not great they are worse off at the center position so there's questions down this Dallas offensive line the running back room got worse and look the offense was electric last year but it's when they got ahead and we talked about this they're Front Runners and when they were at home and when they were playing bad defenses and the the Browns they don't really have to worry about the running game they can come after this offensive line with the aggression that they play with up front in that Jim Schwarz defense and you just have to really worry about you know CD lamb from a receiver standpoint so and you have three really good man Corners so you can take two of them and take their other receivers out of the equation put one of your other Elite man corners on lamb and then shade a safety to him and right and then you have your other safety coming up in the Box worrying about Ferguson you have to worry about like they can shut down this cowboys offense get pressure on Dak and uh you have on the other side of the ball browns offensive line issues their running back room doesn't have as much juice as it usually does without chub and you have DeShaun Watson who hasn't played in how long and when he has it hasn't looked great I don't expect this Browns offense to do much in your outdoors and there could be some wind I think this is a super low-scoring game give me the Browns Cowboys under yeah yeah this is just uh an ugly spot for the Cowboys and their offense got worse and pretty much every way and uh and on top of that I mean you know Dak two years ago he had all those interceptions and then last year he was coming into the air like I'm gonna cut down these interceptions which he which he did but now he's you know working with less and he's he's kind of agitated and probably trying to prove he's worth all the all the money that he's in line to get so uh you might see some of the the mistakes come back for Dak as well so yeah this should be a defensive defensive battle here so yeah Steelers Falcons under for me Browns Cowboys under for you let's get into our favorite teaser of the week and for those unfamiliar with teasers it's just Week 1 Favorite Teaser when you add a uh certain number of points to uh a parlay of two or more spread bet usually it's a Sixpoint teaser so for example a eight-point favorite becomes a two-point favorite a two-point Underdog becomes a eighto underdog uh stuck you have a lot of great content out there on teasers and teasing uh through the key numbers of the three and the Seven uh so everyone make sure to check those out uh so talk to me about uh where you're going for week one yeah I already mentioned the teaser earlier in the show if you're listening to this before Thursday Friday Ravens Packers I like um and then teaser that you suggested I'm I'm going to agree with teasing the Bengals down and uh the Cowboys up you're going cross three and seven in both both have lower totals um the the Bengals Jamar Chase is he gonna play he was out of practice today uh that's the big question it's iy I mean but I mean like it's it's tempting me to just bet this one because the Patriots are not ready for prime time I mean they're they they've they literally are starting their backup quarterback just because they they're not confident in their their o line so if I mean that's also an an under candidate yeah speaking of their o line um it is a mess I'm I'm just not a fan of laying I touchdown plus favorites week one yeah yeah no it's it's 14 and 27 against the spread since 2003 uh but you have you have strange Ario and IR their Patriots guard you have low and so dealing with injuries if that's the case you have a rookie Robinson at Right Guard and you know Andrew and owena would be fine but if Lowe's out okara for probably starting at the other Tackle Spot and then what Leverett or Michael Jordan at the other guard spot all with a new offensive line scheme they're changing how they're blocking that's bad news H Hunter Henry dealing with injury no Bourne brassette starting the good news isn't if you want to bet an under there um because the Patriots they're probably gonna go much slower this year they're going to be just super run heavy and yeah try to rely on their defense brette reason why he's such a good backup top five among all qualified quarterbacks in NFL history in interception right doesn't make mistakes that's why he's a good backup uh but yeah I I think the Bengals still should get it done at home Chase is the big question mark looks like Trent Brown is going to start at right tackle uh Bengals finally at depth there I don't think Mims is ready to go just yet was dealing with an injury Dax Hill looks like won the cornerback two job I think that's the most important job on this entire team for the Bengals to reach where they want to go looks like he's going to win it over DJ Turner so that's something I'm going to be watching for maybe it's not the best game to really judge his performance against the Patriots passing attack um but and the Bengals they do have questions with the defensive line now without reader their their run defense is really bad without him and that quarterback two spot is a question mark the Patriots can't really take advantage of either uh so the Bengals should get it done and then the Browns low low scoring game Browns Cowboys low scoring game um with a low projected total teasing that up to over eight uh so I like that look that you suggested yeah and for the Bengals run defense at least what I'm hearing now this doesn't necessarily have to play out on the field but uh they felt like it it had a lot to do with communication on the backend Bell coming back you know yeah right that they're saying at least internally that that's made a big difference u in just getting them in better looks and fits uh to stop the run so I mean readers a I agree with that I agree with that assessment one of the reasons why why I bet the Bengals to win the division yeah I love the Bengals uh this year I think they're a team to bet over the Ravens in that division as well uh but and then I on on Cleveland Dallas yeah we already talked about why Dallas could struggle but Cleveland's another one of these teams that didn't play their quarterback Deshawn Watson like is until I see DeShaun Watson on the field I mean I wouldn't be surprised if DeShaun Watson's like a surprise scratch for week one or something I I've never feel like confident with DeShawn Watson because every time he throws the ball for like two days in a row it's it's he's hurt or he's like I don't know what's going on with him so yeah I I agree it's it's very bizarre and by the way I've I'm not fully convinced that Conlin who it's rumored he's going to be starting a left tackle he I and you know Wills I he like I don't I'm not convinced both of them or either of them play um or will be close to 100% The Tackle situation very concerning for the Browns heading into week one but yeah Watson uh it's not pretty and your big upgrade in the offseason was Jerry Judy I mean ask Steve Smith Senior about about that one all right let's go to our Week 1 Underdog ML Parlay Underdog money line parlay all right in the second we each choose an underdog we give you the parlay odds if you want to do that um obviously you could just bet them individually um but I think we both going with uh each other's one of each other's picks if I'm not mistaken so you could start us off yeah g to the commanders talked about it earlier uh in the six-pack segment so nothing much more to add where you going Panthers same same deal here we talked about it already so if you parlay the Commanders plus 140 the Panthers plus 180 your parlay odds would be plus 572 so uh some nice underdogs I think week one's a good spot for these in general and uh specifically regarding the Panthers week one divisional dogs are actually above 500 outright uh since 2010 so go over over a decade now the we one divisional dogs 40 38 and two uh on the money line 51% with a 32% Roi so uh like like that spot for Carolina all right let's end it with our survivor Survivor Pool pool pick of the week where you going stuck uh I'm in the Circa Survivor so there's 20 weeks and you got a like Christmas and Thanksgiving which are going to be a bear yeah so I'm going to be a little riskier if you're in a bigger pool um and I'm going to save the Bengals they have an easy schedule I have some spots I want to use them and I map it all out later in the year so I'm going to go with the Seattle Seahawks uh at home against the Denver Broncos and B Knicks in his first career start on the road uh I'm going to save the Bengals who by the way are the only favorite of over a touchdown this week that is the fewest in week one in the NFL since I believe 2011 when we didn't have any uh so lot of close spreads this week Bengals the obvious choice but I'm in some bigger pools so I'm G to be a little riskier save them uh and then I'm going to go with the Seahawks yeah that makes sense uh I hate that the Bengals are really the only spot you know the only safe quote unquote safe spot in week one because they do have such an easy schedule but the way I play week one even if I am in a big size a larger pool I I just want to advance week one because that's I'm really going off nothing here it's it's actually funny I I believe because we do this every year and like if one of us gets eliminated the other one just gives the picks for the rest of the year and I think it was week one I want to say two years ago when you actually they had this game as the opener Seattle Denver I think you picked against Seattle and I and then they got upset so like now you're you're getting your retribution get this get this out don't don't mention that you're you're going with the Bengals oh man good times all right now it's time for best of the rest which are the games that we did not hit on in any other segment let's start it off with Texans vs Colts the Texans at the Indianapolis Colts Texans favored by three at most books on the road just some two and a halfs out there uh the total 49 I actually like the Texans in this spot especially if you can get uh inside a three or I might just play the money line but my thing with the Texans is yes they're on the road in in a divisional spot which is usually the spot to back the dog but I think that this texed offense specifically having three what I consider Elite wide receivers is just the worst possible matchup for the Colts because the Colts main issue main question mark main weakness is the secondary and specifically at cornerback where you have Moore is pretty solid uh but he's a slot and you're gonna have Brent and Jones and cross yeah just a bunch of got question marks so I mean even if those guys improveed they would still get toasted by uh Stefan Diggs tank Dell Nico Collins but this this matchup plays right into the Texans hand so I know it's you know they Texans tend to play these close games I think they only won by four and that was on that drop pass in that matchup in week 18 last season but the Texans have a clear and they remember they only had they didn't have Diggs or Dell for that game but the Texans have a clear Edge in the spot that you just don't uh want to face if you're a Colts fan which is wide receiver against that secondary so you know Boward he's like hey I he he even he knows it but he's not he's not worried about his job security and so he trots out this this cornerback group that he's betting a lot on uh I I don't see it especially uh in week one especially against this past game so I I like the Texans uh any thoughts there would lean Texans but uh not run to bet I mean divisional home dogs woo they have been absolutely money in week one 17-4 against this spread since 2012 but I think that's ultimately the difference is just the there's just a huge mismatch when it comes to the passing attack for the Texans against the secondary for the Colts which is their glaring weakness uh can the Colts just generate enough pressure on strout I think they had five or six sacks in one meeting last year but that's when the tonsil was out and they were playing with like four backup offensive linemen they're going to need to get pressure with their front otherwise it's going to be a long day now sometimes the Texans come out and they run it too often right like and they just are inefficient early in the game then they unleash stoud so I might you know look for the Texans live they get behind because there's just no once shout has to pass it's just going to work right like hey you have to pass you from behind the Colts just have no recourse for stopping them looks like Will Anderson potentially trending up Josh D's not sure if he's going to go means I think Mitchell probably gets more of the the slot snaps um but I also I don't really love un uh overs in week one especially in division games but it would lean over here fast going super fast uh super fast tempo with Richardson um whose legs obviously will be an asset and it's just hard for me to see the Texans getting slowed down the P maybe I'll look for live over too if the Texans come out and they're they're kind of messing around with running it too often as they tend to do early in games last year under slowick but uh I think the Texans probably win because of that passing TCH but probably staying away pre game but Le but lean my biggest seem would be over and they do internally they do know that so slowick he was aware and over the second half of the year now it was kind of obscured because they you know Stroud was injured a couple games down the stretch and then like all the receivers got hurt and But like after that Carolina game it was kind of a wakeup call to slowick when they they lost that game and they got too cute running the ball so I think what they traded for Stefon digs like they're clearly planning to be more pass happy and as far as the sacks CJ Stout had two games where he took a lot of the first two of his career after that pressure or not he was fine regardless of who was in and out of the lineup so I'm I'm not really worried about it either um so I'll probably be on the Texans but maybe I will take the money line because I mean they they always end up in these close games one way or another and the co this is you know Anthony Richardson's healthy and so that's that's that's still good news for the coach they they'll be able to protect him their offensive wise's really good and Jonathan Taylor's healthy so I'm not sleeping on the Colt's offense either I just think the Texans have a bigger Mis bigger mismatch all right by by the way the most but the most uh and the Colts like the way that you can throw Strat off is blitzing numbers kind of um fall off a bit and that but the Colts don't Blitz they BL like the few the lowest rate and they play a very static old school start Bradley [ __ ] yeah the anomaly the St anomaly stat of the week is the Colts are it's not predictive at all it's just but the Colts are 114 and one against the spread week one over the past 16 Seasons insane that's yeah that's I mean a lot of that is Frank Reich was their coach so that that that balloon that record I mean it's just I guess they had other struggles but and then they probably play the Jags a lot in week one don't they always lose to them yeah right that's their yeah it's not predictive but it's it's just crazy yeah all right yeah the Colts I mean they could win this game the NFL but I I I'm convi my conviction is is the Texans so I'm I'm GNA roll with that side uh okay bills Arizona bills are at home the Bills vs Cardinals Cardinals are six and a half Point underdogs the total is 48 I'm actually curious to your thoughts on this game because I I make this line around five I think the market is a little low on the Cardinals I think that uh Kyler Murray with a full off season with a true number one receiver remember his numbers just been a lot better with Hopkins Greg dor you talking about oh yeah yeah exactly Greg dorch number one no uh but you know Marvin Harrison top top one of the top picks in the draft dor I mean he's gonna I think he's I believe he's going to start at the in in the slot position so uh he's a guy that can create I like Wilson so I really like the offense I I think the offensive line be okay but you have Murray regardless and then uh defensively is where I I still have the question marks you know but I'm not as high on this Joe Brady transformation as some I know an article just came out with Stefan Diggs essentially saying throwing Brady under the bus and saying we started running too much in the second half and that that kind of coincided with your Bill's Future Super Bowl future they started winning but I don't know if that's the right mentality long term um for the bills and I I just feel like sometimes those things like it's like these offensive coordinators have these good stretches and they and and I'm pretty sure it was like a McDermot thing like ah I'm a you know he's a defensive guy guy and he's like all right you know let's let's let's run the ball it's like dude you have Josh Allen and Stefan Diggs and now you don't so I I think this Bills team might be little overrated but at the same time the bills did take some sharp money which is why I want to hear your thoughts um because I I I would love to get a seven with Arizona but I make this line about a point point a point and a half off from the market already no I'm close to Market this the game I have the least amount of confidence or uh conviction on on the entire week one slate I don't know how the bills are going to approach this well number one defensively I think the bills are going to take a step back similar to the Bengals last year with their safety situation you lose your two main states looks like they're gonna be starting Taylor rap Demar Hamlin both those guys better coming the down hill like there could be some busted plays here and by the way he Greg dorch get a Greg dorch I've been on Greg dorch since his wake far days in his first year now the fantasy Community is all about him shout out my guy uh me and hardit but I see him always tweeting about him but I was first just want to say that Greg dorch happy to see you having the success I always knew you would but yeah the the Cardinals offense should be better and look the bills defense there's a lot of pressure on their corners and their defensive ends Russo and epano who I like to just and and their interior is good too with uh with Jones leading the way there and Oliver they got to get home because there's the middle of the defense is going to take a big you don't Milano now Dorian Williams probably going to get the first crack there I've seen even Bill fense getting excited about Joe and Jes like the local to Buffalo like that it's bad the safety situation is not great right now and that doesn't enable mcder to be as flexible and you know Milano's like the quarterback of that defense did so much in so many different ways so I think their defense could take a step back the other side of the ball is where I I you know just I don't know what the how the bills are going to approach this because one are they just going to go super runhe heavy and just say we can bully Arizona which they should be able to do or those terrible signings on the interior for that's like I I don't know they paid too much money for those yeah I like this I love this the the scheme that they're running um and some of the stuff like their nine spacing quarters and they're really Innovative uh under Ganon but they just don't have talent on that side of the ball but do they so do the bills go bullyball and just run it and in that case like you probably want an under ticket or do they try to come out here and get The Passing game going again you can do that against this Arizona team you're relying on extremely young corners and Murphy Bunning is not like their secondary is very vulnerable because like you have the bills what they're gonna start Matt Collins that receiver looks like it's going to be the one on the outside the no I thought I think I think Coleman would be the X and then holl Samuel no Hollins was over yes he was on the dep chart today man Coleman played every snap with the on all preseason I'm why would they put Collins over Coleman on the dep chart veteran veter you know they they don't like to [ __ ] on Veterans on depth charts I learn I want to learn Tom ago not to trust those depth charts but either way I mean Samuel's banged up too so it might Point yeah uh but I'm curious to see if like they because you do you I feel like you want to figure out this passing attack and against the Cardinal secondary because of your next five games four on the road against the Dolphins Ravens Texans and jets there's your AFC like upside chances so like do they do they just not want to show anything because they have that stretch coming up do they want to work out the Kinks with letting Allen a it out um so I just don't know I don't know how the and they've been really quiet on how they're going to approach this I know some people close to the Bills team uh so I I don't know um I have it pretty close to correct markco wise uh for what it's worth I will throw out there that um this just goes to back to a lot of things we were saying before with like teams that didn't make the playoffs that come into the new NFL season undervalued teams that won six or fewer games at the previous season when they're Road dogs in the first month of the season of less than a touchdown with a total of less than 50 9755 against the spread 64% this week it applies to the Titans Cardinals commanders and Panthers but I don't I don't have anything here here I just want to see how this plays out I mean I just have this I'm leaning more and more toward the Cardinals after we talk about this because number one you just mentioned the schedule for the bills so this is a trap game in week one and remember they lost the Trap game what was it a couple years ago to the Steelers um in week one like so the bills do I think on a block punt a classic Steelers Steelers win um and then but also and this just goes back to what I was saying about Brady it's like they had a lot of success switching up last year so you know respect but the receiving cord now no Diggs and no Davis that that hurts in terms of like the defensive making the defensive prepare for you in in digs in in the passing game but also Gabe Davis great run blocker um so you're losing him like you said you you're trotting out M Hollands no chemistry with Josh Allen Marcus v ganton no chemistry with Josh Allen Coleman rookie some limited chemistry with Josh Allen Samuel no chemistry with Josh Allen uh Josh Allen prone to mistakes so they probably run the ball which means it probably stays close and they that's what they did anyway last year and then the the defense the safeties are always the strong point and they got weaker so now you're relying more on your Corners which in McDermot scheme is just you know it's I think you'd rather have the safeties be on on point because the bills have survived without Corners so it's just I I I don't know I think the bills might have some some struggles here I would I wouldn't be surprised if the Cardinals uh like that was actually a team I was thinking about for moneyline dog um so yeah I'm I'm probably gonna be on the card we got we got to move on before we uh anger our producers is a Bills fan too much do you want to just skip the final game no I me I meant you talking about uh K the bills losing yeah all right uh so we got two more games Vegas at the Chargers uh we don't do Monday night uh we don't preview this on the Pod uh if you wantan to find uh content on that uh one of us Raiders vs Chargers will be writing up the Monday night game every week and it'll be discussed on on other podcasts here on the channel but uh we'll end it with the Sunday night game but before that Vegas at the Chargers minus three are the Char charers at home the total 40 and a half I could still see this game going under the Raiders only about 16 points I mean they played all these backup quarterbacks but since Pierce took over and uh Chargers Greg Roman coming over at OC Harbaugh and the coach I think the defense should be better um so yeah that's kind of my lean but I'm not really too interested in this one what about you yeah I played I played the under and first half under um here and I the charter is going to be significantly slower on offense they're going to go more run heavy and the weakness of the Raiders defense and I like their staff talked about I like Patrick Graham I like how their scheme they want to prevent explosive plays um and they do a lot of good stuff with their defensive front the weakness is still the secondary but the Chargers don't really have the wide receivers to take advantage um so I think that this game will be low scoring divisional game early on in the season uh minshu's numbers against the blitz are bad and Minter he's going to bring the Blitz and this Chargers defense should be much more well schooled and just in the right position more often uh so yeah I think Chargers run heavy slower don't think mchu is going to have much success and for what it's worth the Chargers like I mean I I have this line about right because the Chargers home field advantage is uh just nothing I mean and if you go back last year there were three and six against the spread at home 30 48-2 against the spread at home over the last decade 3048 and2 uh like the under here first half and full game um think the side's about right yeah agreed uh let's close it out lions at the Rams rematch of that wild card playoff matchup last season the Lions vs Rams Rams are on the road the lions are favored by three and a half and the total is 51 now the Lions added DJ reader they already had the number one run defense last year so you the Rams were very riing On The Run even though they have some good weapons in the past game so uh that kind of plays into the lions heads I think the defense you know they're taking steps to making it making it better looks like feels like we say that every year but uh how you feeling about this uh rematch I know you were on the Rams last time if I'm not mistaken uh yes I I I don't have a a strong feel for this game right now I'll be writing up this game so make sure you check out Action Network app action network.com uh but over the past three years just take the Lions just bet the Lions they're 35 and 16 against the spread the last year is 68.6% that's the best threeyear stretch since uh back in 2016 through 18 with Brady and the Patriots and golf indoor golf 25 and N against the spread the past three seasons just stupid um outdoor not the same uh success but uh indoors at home I I have questions about what's going on with this Rams team yeah some of their moves uh their special teams are still bad ER Ernest Jones being the interior the offensive line they're like thinking about shuffling up there's no Aaron Donald I think Jackson got suspended by the way on the tackle yeah so yeah I'm I'm keep my off for some things here um but I'll have this written up no strong strong take as of right now maybe maybe lean lines uh but obviously really want to see the Improvement in the secondary for uh for the now I I will say that with lean over initially just how seeing how thinking how this game's going to play out but just like the Cowboys and Browns another G another point for that under is both quarterbacks haven't played yeah usually see some Rust early neither of these quarterbacks have played so maybe there's some Rust early on shaky kickers too shaky kickers shaky kickers um so maybe look for a live over um this starts out slow um because I think if either team gets like behind and they got to go throw heavy they're they're going to have success um but I'll have this written up no strong take as of right now yeah and another thing that could change with because I was thinking about the over as well but the Lions actually might go for more field goals this year because Jake Bates you know never kicked in the NFL won the job strong strong leg and they went with him you know they could have had guys who are seemingly more accurate um but they decided to go with baat so that that tells me that they usually go for it but uh they might be willing to to to kick some long field goals and then you're kind of letting the kicker variants decide the total oh yeah then you have a Lions game with Campbell he's still going to go for a lot you have the variance there um and then McVey tends to be more conservative in some of those decisions which you know I think in the long run works in the line's favor um but introduces more variant into this game lines get a couple fourth Downs could extend if not might be trouble but uh like I said I ritten up no strong take right now all right that is a wrap for us thank you for listening to the Action Network podcast you can hear more of me every week with my guy Sean kerer talking fantasy DFS uh player projections props all that good stuff over on the fantasy Flex podcast channel so make sure you subscribe to that as well as the Action Network uh podcast and you can hear Stucky talking college football over on the big bets on campus podcast also be sure to subscribe to the big bets on campus YouTube channel uh really great stuff there from stuck I got a couple of boys that just follow Stu's college football picks uh religiously uh every week so be sure to check him out on that you can find stuck on X Stucky 2 I'm at Chris Raybon and of course we're at those same handles on the free award-winning Action Network app until week two let's get this money for