Vikings vs Giants Week 1 Bets - NFL Picks With Kyle Kirms

yo what's up welcome back to another episode of the SWS continuing on with NFL week one Vikes Giants in the meal lands let's go welcome to the [Music] SS the [Music] s s hey get this sew all right like I said Minnesota's on the road at metti here Giants are short home dogs plus one and a half it's plus one and a half everywhere too this lines across the board uh total sitting at 41 41 a half depending on your sports book so let's go ahead and get into this matchup um and we'll start by taking a look at the Vikings offense minus Kirk Cousins in the second chunk of last season and it was pretty ugly passing wise they were without Kurt Cousins they were 28th in passing DVA 24th in EPA per dropback 25th in success rate per dropback so is Sam darnold the Savior um well if you look at his numbers doesn't really indicate that uh since 2000 there's been 91 quarterbacks that have attempted 1,500 or more passes Sam darnold of those 91 77th in pass rning 72nd in yards per pass attempt 80th in success rate but the thing with Sam darnold is did he ever really have a chance you know I'm sure you heard that a million times I mean he was in Carolina what what kind of roster did he really have to work with there then he was with the Jets and we know what that organization does to quarterbacks so I mean if you take a look look at this Minnesota roster the way it's comprised now is this the first time Sam darnold's had a realistic chance to be a winning quarterback for starters you got Justin Jefferson who by the way just had a down year just had a down year by his standards even in his down year he was 15th in defensive adjusted yards above replacement sixth in route dvoa so he was still a top 10 receiver in the league even in his down year I mean the guy got 6,000 receiving yards already most ever in the first four years of his career so it's a good start he's got Justin Jefferson also he's got himself a good offensive line Minnesota's offensive line last year 10th in run blocking grade 12th in adjusted line yards second and pass blocking grade now you might be looking at this graphic saying what do you mean second and pass blocking grade they were 24th in adjusted sack rate allow we'll check this out Minnesota's pass protection last year was second in the entire NFL in time to throw so they gave their quarterbacks time to throw they were also fourth in highest pressure rate allowed not attributed to the offensive line meaning their quarterbacks did them no favors last year and we know the quarterback carasol we saw the Minnesota go through after Kur cousins it wasn't exactly a slew of Hall of Famers how about that um so in addition to having a good offensive line and a superstar arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL you've also got Jordan Addison 10 touchdowns last year LED all rookie receivers seven touchdowns of 20 plus yards developing into one of the most dangerous deep threats in the NFL so he got a good offensive line you got a superstar wide receiver you got an emerging Superstar deep threat um it's not a bad look for Sam darnold now we do have to point out that Justin Jefferson didn't do much in the 2022 wild card game where they lost to this Giants team it's just seven catches 47 yards in that game but that was wink Martell's defense and this new defense Shane Bowen is the new defensive coordinator for the Giants I'm not saying better or worse than wink marale certainly different wink Mart blitzes a lot press coverage a lot of man card coverage that's not what we saw from Shane Bowen at Tennessee I mean he ran a much more conservative defense 13th in zone frequency 20th in man so pretty balanced 23rd in Blitz rate so he didn't Blitz a lot that's not what we've seen from these Giants defenses with wink marale and what were the results last year uh well the Giants all have 4.7 yards per carry on the ground that's 28th in the NFL 29th in run defense EPA 29th in run defense DVA their numbers against the pass weren't bad but against the run it was ugly and you might look at this Vikings team and say well it doesn't matter cuz Minnesota can't run the ball but hold on look what happened after Kirk cousin got hurt yes before Kirk Cousins got hurt Vikings were throwing the ball KT cousins was having a career year after he got hurt the pass game went to [ __ ] but they actually started running the ball the carries per game upped from 20.6 to 25.3 look at the rushing yards per game 107.4 after Kirk Cousins 4.24 yards per carry so after Kirk Cousins got hurt Minnesota's offense looked pretty bad but they were running the ball a little bit and head coach Kevin oconnell might have added the perfect RB for what he's trying to do so last year Minnesota's RB Rush attempts 75% of them came under Center meaning not out a shotgun want to know who the second most successful running back was in all of football in carries from under Center Aaron Jones and that's who they added to this offense and look Aaron Jones is aging but we saw how impactful he could be I mean Green Bay's offense did a complete 180 when he came back from injury last year so I like that addition a lot um now you might be thinking oh perfect back for the system the Giants run defense was terrible last year let's book it Aaron Jones two touchdowns 120 yards let's hold on cuz yes wink marting Gale's defense with the Giants last year struggled against the run but Shane Bowen maybe he struggles against the pass a little bit maybe the blitz packages aren't quite as Innovative but he knows how to build a good run defense we've seen it in Tennessee for years here his run defense ranked with the Titans and I mean there was a couple years in there where they had a bunch of injuries still top half run defense and look at the Giants Personnel in the front seven I mean they have guys here babio Kake Dexter Lawrence Brian Burns is there now Kon Tibido they have talent in the defensive front so with this new defensive coordinator I expect the Giants run defense to take a huge step forward this year the question I would have does that happen in week one though these kinds of things tend to take time week one with a new defensive coordinator against a Vikings offense that has a really good offensive line that now has Aaron Jones that has Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on the it looks like Jord anison's going to play by the way I know that was up in the air it looks like he's going to play I mean that's a tough ask for a defensive coordinator in your first game coaching a new team so I think without wink Martingale sending those blitzes that Vikings offensive line I think Sam darnold's going to have time to throw he's got plenty of weapons I think the Run game might be there a little bit I like the Vikings offense I think they're able to score points I'm not saying they're going to hang 35 on the Giants on their home field but I like the Vikings to get up and down the field in this one now on the other side we have the Giants offense and we have Daniel Bones Jones Daniel Jones look at these metrics here amongst 39 amongst 39 qualified quarterbacks last year Daniel Bones Jones 38th in yards per pass attempt 38th in Big Time throw raid 35th in passer grade not the best looking metrics there from bone now I'm just joking around I'm not trashing Daniel Jones I mean he was actually pretty good the previous year and he did get hurt last year and one thing I will say this is definitely going to be the best surrounding cast he's ever had in his time with the Giants um first of all I'm sure you've heard they added Malik Neighbors in the NFL draft probably the best wide receiver in the draft I mean certainly explosive at LSU last year over 3,000 career receiving yards at LSU most in program history and that program has some serious wide receivers that have gone through there so definitely added a superstar weapon in the making here but honestly the lead story with this Giants offense shouldn't be Malik neighbors it should be the offensive line they finally gave this dude some pieces three new pieces on the offensive line even when in okay in the 2022 2023 season the Giants passing offense was 16th in overall dvoa and Daniel Jones played really well even in that season he didn't have an offensive line that year where the Giants went to the playoffs won a playoff game their offensive line was still 24th in adjusted line yards 26 in sacks allowed per game so even in the 2223 season when the Giants went on a run they still didn't have an offensive line for this man now again this is another thing that takes time you don't add three pieces and then boom all of a sudden you have a great offensive line so this probably will take a few weeks to develop but no question this should be on paper the best offensive line Daniel Jones has ever had with the Giants by a good margin and check this out things get even better for Daniel Jones here Minnesota runs a ton of Zone coverage 78.4% of their defensive snaps and pass coverage last year were in zone most in the NFL no NFL team in the league ran more Z Zone coverage than the Minnesota vik last year want to know who has much better numbers against Zone coverage Daniel Jones and it's not even close 76.7% completion 6.3 yards per pass attempt 81.9 passer rating look at his numbers against man coverage it's night and day he's much better against Zone coverage and the Vikings run an assload to Zone but just when you think it might be a perfect spot for Daniel Jones to throw three touchdowns and the Giants to get on the board here you look at the blitz rate nobody blitzes more than the Minnesota Vikings this is is a Brian Flores defense we're talking about they're coming 51.5% Blitz rate last year led the NFL look at Daniel Jones numbers against the blitz amongst 38 qualified quarterbacks dead last in passer rating dead last in turnover wory play rate 37th okay he's ahead of somebody in yards per pass attempt 37th in passer grade when blitzed Daniel Bones Jones struggles with the blitz to say the least and the Minnesota Vikings Blitz more than anyone in the league and another thing that needs to be mentioned here we'll bring the Zone coverage numbers back up yeah I mentioned how the Vikings run 78.4% Zone coverage more than anyone else in the league they were pretty good at it last year 4.92 yards per pass attempt allowed 83 passer rating one of the better Zone coverages in the NFL in fact their pass defense was great last year just 6.6 yards per attempt 13th in the NFL 14th in pass defense EPA 10th in pass defense dvoa this was a solid pass defense last year and they improved look at their defensive depth chart they added Steph Gilmore Sha griin Andrew van GLE on one side Jonathan greenard on the other I mean they loaded up two Edge rushers and two corners this was already a borderline top 10 pass defense last year with Brian Flores sending his Blitz packages and all these new pieces I can't say I like the spot for Daniel Jones maybe if this was later in the season and the offensive line had some time to gel but this is pretty terrifying and you might be thinking but Kyle the Giants beat this team in the playoffs and yes you're right but you want to know who the Superstar for the the Giants was in that game his name is saquon Barkley at 109 yards two touchdowns at just 14 touches in that game and in case you haven't heard he no longer wears a New York Giants uniform he's on the Eagles here are the Giants offensive numbers from last year one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL rushing numbers weren't too bad 16th in yards per carry but they played a very easy schedule cuz schedule adjusted metrics has them at 31st and 31st this was a very bad offense last year and yes I do expect them to improve I like what they're doing I like the offense line moves I do I truly think they're headed in the right direction but week one against a Vikings defense that I think everyone's sleeping on I don't like it at all and another thing I forgot to mention I should have mentioned it earlier what else does Daniel Jones like to do run the football he's a great athlete he's very good at it Vikings were great against mobile quarterbacks last year they were fifth in the NFL and fewest yards per carry allowed to quarterbacks eighth and fewest yards per game rushing allowed to quarterbacks so the Vikings said were even good at that last year overall like I said I think people are sleeping on this Vikings defense and I don't think Sam darnold is going to be that bad I don't think Sam darnold's good but I think he has an excellent team surrounding him uh look at this defense I think this is a top 10 maybe even a top five defense and I think if you take out the quarterback you're looking at a top seven or eight offense as well I think this Vikings team is really good not a big Sam darnold guy but they're much better than the Giants certainly in week one I'm on the money line I took Minnesota money line I got it at I think minus 120 I I took it a couple weeks ago I've had this ticket for a while hasn't really move still sing around the same spot so I'm on the Vikes here definitely a bit Square don't care if you want to see all the bets I currently have open head over to Kyle ks.com and click on open bets you can see all mine listed under sauce and you can see everyone's bets on the staff here um so head over there if you're interested also if you sign up for sauce Network plus it comes with access to the Discord and you can participate in the weekly betting league so if you're interested in that head over to the website and sign up let's have ourselves a good NFL season man it's week one finally here remember to bet responsibly it's long season talk to guys in the Discord [Music]