NFL Week 2 Picks and Predictions, Odds, Barking Dogs, Best Bets, Plus, Trends and Angles - Bet On It

Introduction Bet On It NFL Edition I am Kelly Stewart at Kelly in Vegas joined today by Joe reri Marco D'Angelo and Teddy covers of wagertalk.com there's my guys what did we learn week one do we have some barking dogs Teddy just the tip is here to stay of course we're gonna finish off with some Best Bets but in the intern we've got some prop picks some gold and of course some TNA let's get right into it Marco D'Angelo is up first at Marco in Vegas Thursday night Prime Time game Buffalo Two and a Half Point underdogs at Miami total Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins 49 well Kelly we know that these Thursday night games are always a disadvantage for the road team you got to travel on a short week but when it is a division game like this one that's a break for the road team because you play this team twice a year so game prepping is much easier for opponent that you play on a regular basis than trying to game plan and travel on a Thursday night so that's one break that Buffalo catches right out of the gate the second break they catch uh and this would be a disadvantage for Miami the month of September when Miami plays home games it's a big Edge for them whenever they're playing teams that are in cooler climates like Buffalo because it is still hotter than hell in Miami in September but this isn't a Sunday afternoon game where that sun is just beating down on you in uh wearing you down in the second half this is a Thursday night game so they catch a break as far as the weather goes Buffalo history-wise they've won eight of the last nine meetings between these two teams but I'll be the first to tell you I think that margin is uh getting closer and closer Buffalo I feel is on the decline they're not as good as they've been in past years in Miami's on the rise this is a team that can make a serious bid to win the division with all of that said I don't think there's enough of a gap where I can look at uh Miami and feel that they are going to win by a margin so you might know where I'm going to kind of go with my play on Thursday night so you're gonna kind of get a bonus play because I got to do something with it I like buffalo on a teaser Kelly I'm gonna tease them up over the touchdown because that is the way to go in this one you've got the history of them dominating Miami Miami and you've got Miami that's still learning how to win and then win by a margin I don't see them winning by double digits so who are we going to hook it up with Kelly well I know you won't like this one but it is the right one to do I'm taking a New York Giants and teasing them up I know the Giants couldn't looked any worse on Sunday but am i g to really expect Washington with that defense to totally shut down the Giants and am I going to expect Washington with a rookie quarterback to win by two scores no and it's a low total this is the uh perfect uh role model for the proper way to tease we're taking Buffalo and the Giants as my two team teas are for you and this will be a client play O sounds disgusting that's my favorite kind of play Marco hold your nose remember when you used to have to walk you used to have to wear a paper bag walk to the window now there's no shame in placing those bets because you have a cell phone I love to see it Joe we're going right over to you on Sunday night Chicago plus seven pretty much on the wager talk odd screen at the Houston Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans Texans total 46 yeah so one of these teams is a contender and one of them is a a pretender I'll let you guys figure out which is which as we're going to have what the number two overall uh pick versus the number one overall pick over the last couple of years doing battle here and call me crazy uh but that was some showing by Caleb Williams I mean that was honestly I'm pretty sure Marco Teddy and myself probably could have threw for more yards and look better doing it than Caleb Williams did 48% of his passes 64 yards nine of 16 yikes uh he did look like a deer caught in the headlights now the good news is let's face it uh that defense and special teams they travel they'll be on the road in Houston here uh I did not love the number opening up I did see it at seven and some spots it it has come down it was six and a half now we're starting to see six so it is coming off that original open number and I get it division rival in Indie they only won by two they did give up four sacks in that game there which you got to think the Chicago defense has got to be salivating a little bit getting after CJ stoud here I don't love the spot for Houston coming off at that big division win at Indie here uh I do trust the Chicago defense uh and special teams the defense will will certainly travel in this spot here uh Houston is the better team make no mistake about it I tend to look at a total in this spot here Cal I did not love that number I wasn't running to the window to lay a touchdown in any way shape or form but I've seen the total come down from 46 to 45 45 and a half and I agree with that move we're going to have another Prime Time game at night with two pretty darn good defenses and one really suspect offense it's got underwritten all over it for me underwritten all over it I'm going to be sweating because I have a feeling they are going to be in at least one if not a few of my Survivor pools Monday night Teddy finishing us off strong here Atlanta plus six and a half at Philadelphia 47 Teddy this one's Atlanta Falcons vs Philadelphia Eagles interesting the look a headline was almost three points lower do you think we see a seven popup or do you think the sharps are going to immediately buy that one back and hope for a middle I would not be surprised at all if we see sevens before kickoff in this game whether they'll hold is another question but it's pretty clear at least early in the week There's Been one-sided action on this game it's been Philly money and no surprise I mean what is the betting public focus on the betting public focuses on offense and you have Jaylen Herz and saquon Barkley and AJ Brown and Devonte Smith making plays on national TV last week and lighting up the scoreboard and Atlanta obviously well they go two for n on third Downs 226 total yards 4.5 yards per play minus three turnovers you know Kirk Cousins not pretty in his first start since last October you know 155 yards two ints they only had 45 yards in the second half they had a bad fumbled a bad snap I mean it was as ugly an offensive showing for Atlanta and as good an offensive showing for Philly as you'll ever see hence the support for Philadelphia all that being said let's talk about defenses for a minute and spots for a minute Philly defense allowed 7.1 yards per play Atlanta defense yeah they lost the game straight up they also didn't give up a touchdown in that ball game and allowed only 4.1 yards per play they were great against the pass 5.3 they were great against the rush 3.3 and again we're talking about one team that got gashed repeatedly the other team didn't give up a TD and the team that got gash is the team that's laying we talk about Philly and there home field advantage I got the Eagles two six and one against the spread their last nine home games that dates back to 2022 they're coming off a road trip to Brazil on a bad turf field where everyone got hurt you know it's not an optimal smot Atlanta's got Bean Robinson Drake London Kyle Pitts all five starting linemen returning I think Kirt cousins will be just fine with another week and I like the Falcons defense more than that of the Eagles give me the points with Atlanta oh that makes me a little uneasy about my other Survivor pick I was considering using and going against Prime Time Kirk Cousins we're gonna kick these three out of here and we're gonna find our glasses they're over here on the desk somewhere we're a little discombobulated on this Wednesday but we're ready to pick some winners but first we've got to get to some Trends and angles with the stat Daddy Ralph Michaels man with the pen Ralph Michaels Betting Trends and Angles and I know you don't really wear those glasses where'd you find them at like Goodwill those are way too crooked to actually use uh Trends and angles here on bed on it where Ralph brings us all of the nerd charts hence the glasses you know Kell I'm getting old there is some type small enough now that these are just reading glasses off the counter at at Walgreens just to help me read some of that small type so yes um you know as I joked about in the college football segment Kelly the reason I am now doing the charts this way is number one for our viewers and number two for you that we see all the teams that apply so we're going to go through three NFL situations for today the first one is just basic guys I'm not looking for any wow numbers I just want you to realize and you know I love listening to vr's gold and he talks about week two overreaction in college football and in the NFL so let's simply take a look at how teams do in NFL game number two of the season after what they did in game one so you see this is the chart on the left and you see I have previously win home favorite previously win home dog previously win a win favorite winway dog and the bottom four are if you lost game one so Kelly take a look at the top two if you played your season opener at home and you won the game you have gone 35% against the spread and 39% against the spread if you were a home dog or home favorite if you played game one on the road look what you've done in game two if you won the game as an away favorite you've gone 57.7% if you won as an away way dog you've gone 51.7% if you lost as a home favorite you're 48% if you lost as a home dog you are actually 63% your next game like Indianapolis and the Giants if you lost as an away favorite you've gone six and six and if you lost as an away dog it's been a negative you're only 14 and 21 40% so you see I have all the teams it applies to but Kelly I have one super super subset that I want to mention to you when you look at those teams that won as a home favorite in game one you see that they are 13 and 24 35% and that applies to 10 teams and those are listed on the bottom but if those teams that are in that subset are now in a way favored up to minus 7 that means they're a favorite of 1 two three four five six or six and a half those teams like the Char ERS the Seahawks and the 49ers since 2016 have gone one and 13 against the spread that is 7.1% so again if they won as a home favorite in game one it's bad if they won as a home favorite now they're a short away favorite one and 13 is a pretty good number to look at if you want to fade the Chargers the Seahawks and the 49ers I love that Ralph uh puts the teams they apply to now so now I just don't have to take notes I can just take a screen grab and I've got it at my disposal so thank you Ralph for that one Ralph anything right now that you have to promote over at wager talk.com well I haven't loaded any NFL plays I do have my first college football 5% play loaded yes you can get all of Saturday for $39 but with the special we have just amazing 30 days of college football and the NFL combined for just $199 think about it college football NFL for under $7 a day that applies to my package or any of your favorite cappers at wagertalk.com well Kelly those were some interesting situations to fade looking at teams in game number two look at the two charts on to the right both are involving teams playing division games only the top chart on the right you're playing a division game you are playing game two and both teams lost last week this applies to the Giants in Washington and to the Rams in Arizona well the total the sides didn't say much but take a look at the totals guys this is the top right if you have a division game and both teams lost their season opener and you have a high total of 47 or more like the Rams and Arizona those teams have actually gone 8 and 2 80% but I was expecting this lower number when you have a team that both lost game one playing a division game in game two and a total of under 47 like the Giants in Washington 13 overs 31 unders that is 70.5% to the under and it makes perfect sense to me you know your division folks well you're both off a loss you're both desperate for a win you don't want to be 02 and 01 in the division conservative game plan I do like that Giants Washington game under as the chart says and Kelly my final one is this it doesn't get much cleaner than this when you have red red red red red meaning a negative ATS number if you ever hear I really love this division foe they are hungry they have double Revenge they lost both games last year well take a look to what teams have done if they have double Revenge going into the next season home teams with double Revenge 40.6% home favorites like Miami and Washington with double Revenge 20 and 46 30.3% home dogs 46.7 away favorites no one applies this week away dogs no one applies so only two teams apply to this chart but this chart is good for the entire year you want to fade a home favorite that has double Revenge from losing to a division foe twice last year that is a 70% fade says to fade Miami and fade Washington and they say you can't quantify revenge in fact Ralph is proving why you shouldn't at Cal Sports LV make sure you guys are giving him a follow from the stat Daddy to the prop Prince got to lose these glasses because it's time for prop shop with Andy Lang Andy Lang I owe you an apology for last NFL Props week I didn't realize I slipped a little in there who knows sometimes I just talk to talk and uh anyway I digress we're gonna be friends again this week because it sounds like your prop is correlated to my barking dog and that means we're both going to win right absolutely 100% uh man our best bet for the for Prop Shop last week Baker Mayfield over one and a half touchdown passes couldn't have gone any better so we're going to try and do another quarterback prop let's take a look at will Levis we're going to go under 20 a half yards passing obviously he did not look very good last week only 127 yards 32 attempts 19 completions had the killer interception but there's a lot of other things going on just besides that statline the first is I did not realize how injured DeAndre Hopkins was um they have talked about that Hopkins has this MCL injury that he's apparently just going to have to play with for the entire year this is not something that's going to heal up one catch for eight yards last week so we've got a big problem with DeAndre Hopkins Calvin Ridley he only had three catches only 6.7 yards per completion for Levis and outside of those guys it's just pretty thin at the skill position players um the coach even said Kelly we could have punted every possession in the second half we G please please can you not I I I already to relive this I Haven made a Tik Tok about it Andy I even made a Tik Tok if it wasn't for Baker Mayfield in the Bucks game being right after in the Bucks game was a breeze for me laid four thought when it hit three I might be in a little bit of trouble I might have just went off the deep in NFL week one well it doesn't give you a lot of confidence that the coaching staff and the team has faith in will Levis when they're saying we should just punt uh instead of having you throw the ball but here's the other thing uh let's take a look at the defense uh that they're going to face here with the Jets so this Jets defense you know last year they were set up with the secondary but their defensive line had Playmakers to put pressure on the quarterback and then they had a good run stuffer except this year they don't have these same guys Hassan reck is not even playing they they trade for him and he's not even there so what happens in week one you can run the ball on the Jets which completely disrupts their defense because they plan on their secondary being locked down but they also plan on their defense of line being able to stop the run which they could not San Francisco 38 attempts for 180 yards 4.7 yards per run so if I'm Tennessee and I've got a quarterback that I don't trust I'm facing a defense that just gave up a lot of rushing yards to me the path of Victory is running the ball and not letting will Levis throw it the other thing that we noticed is Aaron Rogers was quoted as saying he's going to be running the play clock down to try and get used to this offense to try and work out some of the Kinks and to try and get a little bit more uh a little bit more smooth with the plays so we have Aon Rogers who's probably going to run this play clock down which is going to limit the amount of plays that we see in this game and if the Jets get up they're going to try and run the ball and bleed the clock out and I'm just not a believer in this Tennessee team I think this is a really good getright spot for the Jets I think they're going to win a close one I like your barking dog at plus three and a half but I think if this game is close Tennesse is not going to let will Lis throw the ball and even if he does I don't think he's going to have a lot of success because the path to victory for Tennessee is going to be running the ball so I'm looking at will Levis under 200 a half passing yards for this week's Bet On It Best Bet and it also correlates with the under which we'll talk about later on in the show Andy L at bump Sports over on Twitter Andy really quick we got to give out your promo code before we let you go Andy 50 gets me 50% off of week two plays we already have a play locked and loaded for Thursday Night Football and it's going to include all plays throughout Sunday and throughout Monday we are up 151 units in all sports in 20 24 trying to reel in Tokyo Brandon the baseball God is just crushing it I'm number two in units Kelly trying to reel in Tokyo Brandon and grab that number one spot so encourage everyone no reason to not jump on these NFL plays we were up 91 units last year we're already up 151 units this year looking forward to adding some more profits to the bankroll promo code Andy 50 gets 50% off all of NFL week two plays WT buuz backal as I mentioned check out of Andy's free prop plays and any other free plays in the NFL UFC and golf over on the wager talk Instagram channel are you high is there a sandwich game because I'm really hungry Teddy's segment which I was supposed to read the comments section last week and figure out if we're going to call it just the tip or not and of course as Andy mentioned my barking dog some VR gold and Best Bets on the way all right right on schedule I said I was hungry and I San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings just checked my uh script and Marco has a sandwich for us yeah Kelly this is a big one I hope you're hungry cuz this is a foot long uh sandwich week two of the NFL and we got a perfect spot uh I don't know if it could be any better than this you got the 49ers coming off a short week Monday Night Football and now got to travel on the road and play in a dome San Francisco yeah they looked about as good as they could look on Monday night football against the Jets as they went up and down the field on what was supposed to be a vaunted Jets defense uh so coming off such a satisfying win going out on the road on the short week what do they got after Minnesota let me take a look oh somebody named the LA Rams on Deck you know you think sandwich between the nationally televised Monday night game and the Rams on Deck you might just look a little bit past this Minnesota team and let's also not forget Super Bowl loser it's you know that Jinx is real and you know yeah they look good on Monday Night Football it was a home opener and it was Monday night they're going to look good now when you start to see that uh Super Bowl hangover for the loser it starts in week two and moves out and I think we're going to see a sluggish uh game from them and let's look at Minnesota I know people are going to say they beat the Giants so what the Giants are pitiful well you know what I can't argue the fact that the Giants did look pitiful but what I can also point out you know what Sam darnold looked damn good on Sunday and you don't get to say that very often with him and you know what it reminds me of another troubled quarterback that found his way on a team and inherited a starting job last year can you say baker Mayfield Sam darnold has a chance to resurrect his career here in Minnesota and I think this is a perfect spot for him to do it and one other angle to throw in there there last week we didn't find out till about 90 minutes before game time but there was no Christian mcaffrey that's another spark how many times do we talk about the injured player Theory a team rallies when a star is out well you know part two of that injured player Theory you take them in week one you go against them in week two if they got the win and if mcaffrey would happen to come back it's another reason to go against them because it's the reverse effect on the player uh injured player Theory I'm on Minnesota plus the points one of these two teams is going to come out two and 0 and I think it's just too easy for John Q public to look at this one and say oh man San Francisco I can tease them down to just win the game yeah okay go ahead try that I'm not I'm taking Minnesota plus the points is my sandwich game of the week and Kelly I'll make you happy let's call it Minnesota 2423 so you can put that little sprinkle on there as well oo little outright Underdog too bad I uh revoked Marco's Barking Dog privileges because he wouldn't use big enough barking dogs now he's got to bring it in a different segment I'm just teasing Joe last week we were not high Are You High? enough and this week looks like you baked a little too much before the show yep how high are you which game is too high well it's uh I was definitely not high enough to kick it off which was great because Washington and Tampa certainly uh delivered uh an easy over for uh this week I'm going to piggy back off of what Teddy just talked about and I'm going to head to that Philadelphia and Atlanta game and I think that number is way too high it's already starting to come down there we did see it at 48 A2 it is down to 47 and listen I still think it's going to be uh too high I was impressed with Atlanta's defense I think adding Matthew judon Justin Simmons to that defense with a defensive minded head coach and Raheem mAh uh I like what we said Teddy had mention did they didn't give up a touchdown now the problem is uh obviously the offense here are Philadelphia is not with the offense of Pittsburgh is but uh you know you mentioned that slippery field sa Clon Barkley had a massive week there for Philadelphia don't know that the Falcons defense is going to allow him to get off like uh like he did Uh something's still not right with me with jayen Herz uh still way too many turnover prone plays uh that can go either way in a game here uh still trying to work out the Kinks on both sides of the ball there for Philadelphia and as far as Kurt Cousins goes listen uh they ran everything out of a pistol formation the problem is Kurt Cousins has run less than 10% of his total plays as an NFL quarterback out of the pistol he struggled why doesn't look like he can he can really plant on that Achilles uh foot put yet so I do think it's going to be a work in progress for him I do think they have some weapons obviously there is no way uh that they want to get into any sort of shootout situation in this game against Philadelphia on the road we already know where teams that have that extra day or more of rest the under 10855 and one that is 66% when teams both teams are coming off more than 8 days of rest there and of course the prime time unders we had mentioned since 2019 uh just about 60% when you put it all together I don't see this thing flying this is not going to be a high-scoring affair I think the defenses come through here uh and like Teddy said taking the points with Atlanta if you're going to do that you probably like the under which is exactly what I do oh boy those Prime Time unders have not been kind to us to start this season maybe we see some early regression coming into NFL Stock Watch this week I I don't know if I I love this or not uh and I didn't listen to the comment section but Andy L could not stop laughing at just the tip and I was like just for Andy alone we have to keep just the tip Teddy and I'm never gonna be able to say it with the straight face just like promo code whatever 69 that johnny makes me read but this is just the tip Teddy covers give us a week two NFL stock tip sure this is about Stockwatch and it's not necessarily for one week it's moving forward let's call it a four or five week span last week I gave you the Chargers as a team that's ranked too high and they won and covered my opinion of La didn't necessarily change for that ball game and I'm going to talk here about a team that won and covered last week but I'm gonna buy them here that team the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and this is a scenario doesn't happen very often but it does happen that's why I wanted to bring it up in this space the public is ahead of the Wise Guys on Tampa Bay the Wise Guys looked at Tampa as a very mediocre team last year they didn't make any splashy moves in fore agency they were lined seven and a half eight wins coming of this season they were not the favorites to win the division despite the fact they've been the best team in the division for the better part of the last five years there is wise guy disrespect for Tampa Bay and I don't think that changed after week number one and look this may not be the best week to bet Tampa because they do have some cluster injuries in the secondary and that is absolutely a concern for me in this match up against Detroit this week they have depth concerns they may not be a great team once December rolls around but this offense right now is capable of trading points with anyone they scored on seven of eight medial possessions last week I get that Washington's D is no good but it's still impressive it's not like the Lions D is Elite all right this team finished five- one last year they resigned nearly every key free agent they're running it back with a good team you look at their receiving core are Chris Godwin and Mike Evans the most underrated duo in the NFL in the wide receiver position Baker Mayfield's good right now you know not okay not mediocre he's good he was good last year down the stretch he's good right now and the wise guys aren't there yet so I think there's money to be made with the Tampa Bay Bucks moving forward for the next month or so I'll be looking at Tampa Bay every week yeah I can kind of see that I was on Tampa Bay last week Teddy we'll see especially at home keep an eye on those Barking Dogs Buccaneers and uh my Underdog is not a big Underdog at this point down to three and a half Andy kind of already alluded to it and I'm kind of disgusted with myself that I I didn't try to make a case for maybe Green Bay or Cincinnati but I'm gonna make a case for those Tennessee Titans yeah that that same team you guys remember 17 nothing lead and then uh let's see I think it was a fumble an interception and a pick six yeah that was really fun uh historically bad beat Chicago somehow got the win despite they had the fewest yards in a win by any team since 2020 the Jets by all means last four games 4-0 against the Titans I understand that will Levis well he looked absolutely atrocious in that fourth quarter but this is a Jets team coming off a short week Monday Night Football nothing impressive versus that defense there in San Francisco Tennessee's defense on the other hand does have that ability I think they're getting a we're getting a by low spot here and it's really low almost well too low makes me sick to my stomach to think I'm gonna do it I tweeted it the other day and I owe all of you guys an apology this is uglier than all the ones I just made fun of Marco about hold your nose close your eyes and press that button on your perspective Sportsbook app and we'll see you guys on Sunday all right we're going to kick it over to VR yep that's right the leprechaun is back with VR's Gold some gold what up VR week one now in the books what the heck did we learn last week besides well the fact that I cannot trust will Levis Kelly here's what we learned last week that the NFL Market is extremely efficient and one of the toughest to beat cuz if you take a step back this is what the results were favorites go 9 and seven close to 50/50 when you factor in The Vig one game over 500 with that overs unders 9 and seven same exact thing close to 5050 that's as as efficient of a market as you're going to get in fact if you step back even further and look over the last 5,000 games you're going to come very close to 2500 favorites 2500 dogs 25 200 overs 2500 unders and the reason's simple because it's almost impossible to balance the money 5050 so if you could balance the the result you're guaranteed that same hold and they're very good at balancing the result because they're able to shade towards so many better biases and we're seeing that already in week two so that's what I learned in week one that nothing's changed the whether the players go to free agency whether head coaches move around no matter what happens the NFL Market is very efficient and more times than not ahead of the better so you have to be very selective you can't take bad numbers and uh yeah that's pretty much it from my side don't take bad numbers we know this guys this is sports betting 101 uh VR give me some NFL week to Gold what have you seen come across your desk on Wednesday morning I'm gonna give this warning out a little bit of caution because the week two is overreaction week and a lot of the guys that I work with and guys I share with work a lot of middles and they know they could get out ahead of the market early and take advantage of some of these recency biases so be cautious in drawn conclusions early in the week unless you're strong on that side and maybe wait and monitor the line a little bit let's start off with Raiders Ravens a perfect example under 43 and why Raiders scor what 10 points in week one um and then Ravens only put up 20 themselves and then you look at the second play Chargers minus four you look at the recency bias there how bad could Carolina look of course you're going to get charger money from the betting public so if they could lay four and a half and this gets up to six rest assured they will be buying back on the panther side or six and a half or who knows maybe even seven but that's how the betting syndicates approach especially early on especially week two Saints Cowboys over 44 and a half over 45 there's recency bias again how good did the Saints offense look how good did the Cowboys offense look so there's a lot of recency bias that the betting syndicates will look to take advantage of um another big uh change we saw in the Colts Packers dud the look ahead was 47 on a total it's down to 41 and if you factor in the changing quarterback it's like the the market charged over a touchdown that's an overreaction at best I do expect to see the sharp betters go against that and that's usually what happens if they don't get ahead of the injury they usually take advantage by going contradictory to the injury as if back in that that side thinking it's being overvalued or undervalued if it's the opposite way then Browns Jaguars laid the three on Jaguars at minus 110 and under 44 and a half under 44 drop down the Seahawks minus three also under 41 under 40 and a half finally Giants commanders over 42 a little surprising when you look at the series five of the last six have gone under uh but both defenses looked so bad wasn't surprised to see that over steam early in the week Cardinals against the Rams Cardinals at plus two I see it but then laid the money line This is a team that's lost eight of 10 in the series against the Rams and both of them come off Sixpoint losses as dogs last week so taking that Arizona as home dogs that's what the sharps did and then uh the Bengals ton of injuries on that side that's why you see the adjustment it's not a sharp move on the KC team it was minus three and a half look ahead up to five and a half if anything I saw some plus six being grabbed when it was out there on the Bengals so be careful there but the over is legit over 46 and a half over 47 in Bengals Chief uh finally under Steelers Broncos 40 39 and a half and and then again when they adjusted two points hit under 37 a half it's got to be an over adjustment by this point right three points in the NFL seems like a lot to me finally Monday Night Football Eagles minus 6 and a half this caution right now here's why the they added juice to the six and a half Kelly I could tell you with certainty that I bet it for one of the groups that I move for and then one of the traders that I movers that I share stuff with his group bet it too and it's still six and a half just juice not seven I'm thinking why is that why is that but if you look where the open opener was the look ahead it was four and a half so anyone that got down at four and a half if they go to seven that's a huge huge middle um even with a total up where it is so I think they're going to try to hold off go in the seven for as long as they can but I think that Eagles money especially if there's a lot of teasers tied into it they're going to be forced to get the seven on the Eagles and then where you got to pay attention are they grabbing the Falcons at the plus seven Mark if they're not Eagles are definitely the side you guys like this gold I love it I'm over here taking notes I also take notes every Saturday and Sunday with VR when he joins us for last call our live show bringing all of the gold usually around 11:15 Eastern 8:15 Pacific on Saturdays and of course 12:15 Eastern 9:15 Pacific on Sundays VR we thank you as always good luck this week do some damage all right guys now it is time to do some damage because we've got our Best Bets coming up all right it is time for Best Bets NFL Best Bets last week I cashed my best bet and I should have probably looked to see how everybody else did but I digress Marco D'Angelo your best bet this week oh well Kelly we we pushed mine last week but uh it was ugly push because Denver come in the back door uh for the push against Seattle but we're going to go again this week and Kelly you made fun of me about having a dog in the other segment for the sandwich you took the dogs away from me I like dogs okay I'm an animal lover I'm coming back with another one here for you in Best Bets and this one might be a little tough to swallow as well because even though both teams are coming off blowout wins I think public perception comes away with one of these teams looking much better than the other one and I'm talking about the Dallas New Orleans game new New Orleans just steamrolled uh Carolina all right and that was an ugly one I'll full disclosure I was on Carolina in that game I went 4- one in the Westgate last week and yeah Carolina was the one loser for me there but they can't help who they played they played well offensively they did everything well I'm looking at Dallas and I just think that the hype with Dallas right now coming off the Cleveland game is just too much I think this line is too high and I would sit and wait because if we lose the six and a half and it goes to six which I don't think it will it's worth the risk of waiting to see if we get to the seven which I think could happen when the public gets involved on Sunday they're going to want Dallas Dallas is going to be in all kinds of moneyline parlays they're going to be laying the points with them and everybody will be looking to tease them down just to win at home I'm not going to do it um you also have the fact that Dall last week got that little spark or at least one of their players got that little spark whenever they opened the cash register for Dak Prescott they announced it Sunday morning that he got the new contract and uh highest paid quarterback so yeah everything fell into place for Dallas they looked good against the team that a lot of people thought was a Super Bowl Contender this year I'm not going to overreact to one game but my God Deshawn Watson at what point for the Cleveland Browns do you you start to earn a the paycheck that you are getting I'm going to take New Orleans here I think they stay in this game Dallas at home I know they've put up big numbers in the past but I still don't trust Dallas laying points I'm not sold on that defense Cleveland just couldn't do anything it was more the Cleveland beating themselves than Dallas shutting them down I think the Saints stay in this one I'm going to go all the way to the end it's decided by a field goal late do we want to put a Sprinkle how about enough set New Orleans 2320 who would have thought New Orleans be one of the two and0 teams after week two I'm going for it my best bet absolutely Marco I'm with you in that one I'm actually concerned about starting Dak Prescott in my fantasy team in fact because that Saints defense I'm not sure if they looked that good or if it was the Carolina Panthers looking that bad another six-point Underdog Joe reri the Cincinnati Bengals how healthy is Joe burrow are we going to see Jamar Chase yeah uh well we probably we might see Higgins we'll probably see some combination of those two but we're we're also going to see is a whole lot of talk this week about oh God the sky is falling Cincinnati blows oh God they're terrible they're not going to be any good like all right everyone settle down here for just a minute here yes I watched unfortunately that Bengals and Patriots game and they didn't have a whole lot going right including losing two fumbles in that game uh one of them happened to be uh in the uh near the end zone there they were about to roll into the end zone in fact uh when burrow threw an interception there they also failed to convert on a fourth and two right around New England's 30 yard line so they look to me like a team where Joe burrow was a little rusty the timing wasn't there and it was not uh it was not a great spot but they were no way shape or form blown out by New England in this spot here so what we have I think is a wonderful buy low spot and sell High here with Kansas City because uh the argument can be made there if it wasn't for the old toet tap there or half a toenail uh or if the fact that he doesn't throw behind Z flowers to play prior to that we're having a different conversation about the Chiefs here uh this number is just way too high it was 6 and a half I'm starting to see sixes now same thing I felt about Arizona last week and our best bet there against Buffalo which came through same situation here I will buy Joe burrow in this spot any day 17 and eight against the number is an underdog 15- two against the number as a dog of three or more points in the NFL there is no reason for anybody to be selling Cincinnati stock just yet I get it the Chiefs and momes they'll have Maris Brown yes but I also love what they did in the secondary or uh adding Gino Stone Von Bell back into Cincinnati and Luan AR rumo one of my favorite defensive coordinators burrow has had his way and success against Mahomes in this spot he's also had too much success to ignore here are getting six points on the road against uh Kansas City I'm buying low I'm selling high on Kansas City give me the Bengals plus the points don't blame me on that one they could not have looked worse last week than against the Patriots might be time to play on those Bengals Teddy this is an interesting one I don't know how I feel about it the Colts last week could not get it done for me they had so many tries they were so frustrating against the Texans I did have plus two and a half in addition to the money line so not all was lost talk to me about what you saw in the Colts and Anthony Richardson last week that you like and want to lay three with them this week well there's more to dislike about Green Bay and that to me is the key piece of this handicap but certainly from the pro Andy side look we know this team has big playability we saw it on full display last week and I'm very interested in teams that can score quick strike touchdowns That Matters to that matters being College it matters me in the NFL the betting markets tend to underreact to teams that aren't putting together these long drives and the quick strike TDS they're very meaningful in my handicap and and he's a team that's capable of scoring him now they didn't run the football all that well last week Jonathan Taylor Just 16 of 48 a Long Carry of seven yards however this week they're facing a Green Bay defense that got absolutely gashed on the ground against Philly and that's been a problem for green before that now this is a pass defense for the Packers that is a problem on paper heading into the season and it lived up to expectations last week so you have a new defense winner and Jeff Halley you're coming off a game in Brazil all right so you have a awkward travel spot you have a Rundy that's exploitable and you have a pass D that's exploitable that's the Green Bay side of the equation and here's the kicker obviously Jordan love sideline Jordan love 37 touchdowns 13 interceptions last year it was a pro bowl caliber quarterback I don't remember if he made it or not but it doesn't matter he was that good we're going from Jordan love to Malik Willis I've watched Malik Willis a bunch all right from his time at Liberty into the NFL now he's starting in Green Bay he's been there less than three weeks he was a late training camp Edition he wasn't even there for the start of training camp now he's a starting quarterback in Malik Willis's career 52% completions zero touchdowns three interceptions that's on 67 pass attempts oh by the way 67 pass attempts 15 sacks your classic young QB holding the ball too long not throwing downfield making mistakes he's been in offense less than three weeks and oh here's his quote well it's like transferring schools it's NFL football but it's different terminology in a different system good luck with that kid I even back back to college all right at College Willis at Liberty his senior year with the One Step Up game Old Miss no touchdowns three interceptions the junior year NC State threw three picks in that game as well yeah I'll lay three here I think Green Bay is better against Teddy does not think that the drop off between Jordan love and Malik Willis is big enough he's laying three with Indianapolis real quick promo before we get to my best bet four weeks of college football and NFL under 50 bucks a week you get 30 days college football in NFL for 199 that saves you over 20% this gives you access for 30 days college football and NFL from your favorite handicapper but with an all access package you get the selections immediately when they are loaded that means throughout the week so of course you can get the best line value 30 days of football for just under seven bucks a day now we're gonna pivot to my best bet and uh God I can't believe this is my best bet it's week two college football with slim pickings NFL is slim pickings we're going to go with the Denver Broncos plus three here a Russell Wilson will he be healthy enough to get his revenge on Shawn pyton we don't know as of right now he is questionable at uh 300M Eastern on Wednesday if he's not we we're gonna just go ahead and say that there's not much of a drop off between Justin fields and himself so I don't think we see much of a line move I will give Justin Fields the nod to being a more mobile quarterback but what did we see last week we saw this Denver defense absolutely step up put a ton of pressure on Gino Smith including two safeties I'm not going to say anything great about bone Knicks but he did have a couple of exciting moments he had that four-yard rushing touchdown and well as the lowly Broncos fan here I can tell you that uh he's the first Bronco quarterback since Jake plumber to start a SE a season off with uh no touchdowns and two interceptions that being said we will see if Denver can keep it close at home in Mile High because this is really more of a play against the Steelers W last week they kicked their way into a win over Atlanta by controlling the time and the clock by over 11 minutes they did not score a single touchdown congrats to Chris Boswell getting his uh fantasy owners into some sort of Victory because three of them were over 50 yards Marco D'Angelo was secretly smiling about that one I think this is going to be an ugly TR terrible disgusting low-scoring game in Denver let's call it 1714 final give me the Broncos plus the three that's all I got sorry guys NFL with a bunch of gross picks it feels so nasty I gotta go take a shower but instead we've got to film the college Edition of bet on it next so make sure you guys check that out on the wager talk YouTube channel as well from Marco Joe Teddy Ralph Andy VR and myself and of course our producer Dan waiting in the wings we adore you guys smash that like button hit subscribe so you never miss another episode of bet on it till next week let's bet on it