Steelers vs Falcons Week 1 Bets - NFL Picks With Kyle Kirms

yo what's up welcome back to another episode of the SWS NFL Week 1 is here uh in this video doing Falcon Steelers this one's in Atlanta let's go welcome to [Music] the [Music] this s hey get this sew all right like I said we got Pittsburgh on the road in Atlanta for this one uh the new look Atlanta Falcons offense laying three points here looks to be three across the board uh total sitting at 42 or 422 depending on your sports book let's go ahead and get into this one and we'll start with some head-to-head history uh Steelers 4-0 straight up 4-0 against the spread in their last four matchups against Atlanta now granted they don't play very often this is dating back to 2010 but there's definitely a pattern here does Pittsburgh own this team the Steelers against Atlanta I believe this goes back to 1981 111 in1 straight up N9 and4 against the spread so no question the Steelers have been a tough out for the Atlanta Falcons but we're talking about 40 Years of data here so most of it's irrelevant and I just thought it was interesting to bring up um so let's go into this particular matchup and obviously we know the big change on the Steelers offense Matt Canada no longer calling the plays here for the Steelers they're bring in Arthur Smith in fact this is the Arthur Smith Revenge game on the road in Atlanta his old team the Falcons offense under Arthur Smith 27th in dvoa in 2021 eighth in 2022 then back to 24th in 2023 it looked like things were trending one way and then swung back the other way pretty violently um so what's the difference between Matt Canada's play calling and Arthur Smith's play calling well there's a bunch of them but one of the main ones is play action Matt Canada not a lot of play action at all 29th in play action frequency Arthur Smith second so there's a dramatic difference right there and that complaining to Russell Wilson's favor Russell Wilson last season out of play action 11 touchdowns just one interception now I believe 11 passing touchdowns out of play action was the second most in the NFL so all right he gets himself an OC that runs a lot of play action maybe this elevates the Steelers passing attack and it certainly needed to be elevated here are the numbers from last season 6.7 yards per pass attempt which is 23rd in the NFL 25th in passing EPA so maybe the play action could help Russell Wilson get acclimated into the new offense um now last year we saw the Falcons run a ton of man coverage 56% of their defensive snaps in pass coverage last year were in man coverage fourth most in the NFL so the Falcons ran a lot of man coverage last year Russell Wilson not the greatest passing numbers against man coverage in fact just 6.27 yards per pass attempt didn't turn the ball over which is a plus um but just 6.27 yards per attempt not the greatest numbers against man coverage now obviously Raheem Morris is now coaching the team and the DC he brought in comes from the Rams also but the Rams read a lot of man coverage last year as well so I expect the the the Falcons to stick with that and be running man coverage which overall not a great look for Russell Wilson speaking of which kind of a side note here um as far as the Steelers receivers go George Pickins excellent numbers against man coverage 3.22 yards per route run 13.8 passer rating when targeted against man coverage so maybe George pickings over is worth a look uh because we are expecting the Falcons to come out and run a lot of man coverage uh but anyway back to Russell Wilson now the Falcons had trouble getting the quarterback to the ground 26 in an adjusted sack rate last year pass rush is definitely a problem for the Falcons but here's the thing Russell Wilson really not great last year when given a clean pocket in fact 25th in yards per pass attempt 20th in passer rating when given a clean pocket he actually had a better passer rating when pressured last year which doesn't even make sense but we're just reading the numbers uh also pressure to sack rate 27th so not really sure what I think about that uh keep in mind though all these Falcons defensive metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt cuz we're talking about an entirely new not necessarily a new defense as far as Personnel it's most of the same pieces but rahee Morris is coaching the team he was coaching the Rams defense last year so who knows what this Falcons defense is going to come out and do um but based on the Personnel they had in the production we saw last year not a ton of pressure although adding Matthew judon should probably help with that but not a ton of pressure not a ton of sacks man coverage that's what we saw last year so I expect to see some variance of that now here's where it gets really concerning for the Steelers cuz yeah we can look at Russell Wilson's numbers out of play action his numbers against man coverage his numbers against a bad pass rush all that but look at the Falcons run defense fourth in yards per carry uh which was ninth in the NFL first in run defense dvoa or EPA I'm sorry first in run defense EPA they led the league PFF also had them ranked as the number one run defense last year we're talking about Russell Wilson's success out of the play action well the thing about the play action is it doesn't really work as well if you can't establish some sort of Run game so that's a tough look for the Steelers oh here it is right here the graphic PFF first in run defense grade they're also eighth in adjusted line yard so offensive lines had a tough time creating space against the Falcons defensive front um now if you pull up the defensive depth chart from the Falcons you can see hey they lost a couple pieces in their defensive front seven so maybe that run defense isn't quite as Elite this year Kus Campbell's gone Bud dei's gone but here's the thing look who they replaced him with Zach Harrison's going to start he was there last year as a rookie a third round pick Kus Campbell is aging they don't see this as a downgrade and then Matthew judon has been added to the defensive front not to mention Justin Simmons at safety so you can make the argument that the Falcons run defense one of the best run defenses in the NFL it may have even gotten better and by the way on the offensive side of the ball for the Steelers we have some questions here especially on the left side of the offensive line their first round pick's been banged up we don't know if he's going to play in week one He's listed is questionable looks like they're going to be without their left guard in that game as well Jaylen Warren is also banged up He's listed as questionable although I'm reading that Jaylen Warren is most likely going to play play this isn't exactly what you want to see week one on the road against one of the best run defenses in the NFL and specifically it's a little concerning because the Run game was like the salvation for the Steelers last year in weeks 1 through eight they were averaging less than 80 rushing yards per game 3.41 yards per carry I mean towards the one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL but look what happened from week's nine on 136.6 rushing yards per game almost 4.6 yards per carry it basically turned the entire season around when jayen Warren started getting going and Naji Harris started getting going as well uh so I'm a little concerned that the Steelers aren't going to be able to to run the ball here and if they can't run the ball how are they going to utilize play action for Russell Wilson it's tough I know look this is a Falcons defense that has a new coach new defensive coordinator but I don't like the match up for the Steelers offense at all but now we flip it to the other side and look at the Falcons offense match up against the Steelers defense and I mean there's just nothing but question marks on this side sure we could look at what the Falcons offense did last year they were fourth in run for frequency ran a pretty quick Pace does that matter though it's an entirely new coaching staff not to mention her cousins is playing quarterback all new receivers I mean everything about this offense is new sure we can look at their metrics from last year 14th in yards per play 20th in success rate 27th in offensive uh EPA I don't think they mean anything look at the depth chart I mean everything's new here you got Kurt Cousins playing quarterback obviously much different than Desmond Ritter or Taylor hinei um look at the receivers three of their top four receivers are new this year Rond Del Moore is hurt by the way it doesn't say it on this graphic but he is combine that with the new coaching staff and how can we even make a guess of what kind of offense we're going to see here Zack Robinson takes over as OC he's never called plays before so we don't even have anything to reference as far as what kind of play calling we're about to see here uh really tough to make a prediction um we can look at what the Rams offense did last year they were 13th in run frequency 20th in pass frequency 14th in pace so actually somewhat similar uh to what the Falcons did that's something but as a whole really tough to to place an educated bet on this side of the football but there is one thing we can count on on this side the Steelers are going to Blitz they were sixth in Blitz rate last year very successful pass rush even though these metrics don't look I mean 11th and pressure rate 13th and adjusted sack rate they don't look crazy we know this Steelers pass Rush shows up in big moments and is one of the better pass rushes in football I don't expect that to change here's the thing now small sample size cuz he got hurt Kurt Cousins was actually one of the best quarterbacks in football ball when pressured last year that sounded crazy just coming out of my mouth fourth in yards per attempt first in pass rating first he led the NFL in passer rating run pressured also wasn't really taking sacks either 10th in pressure to sack rate now again small sample size he got hurt uh but no question the Kirk Cousins we saw last year before he got hurt was probably the best version of kurk cousins we've ever seen I mean he was great he was handling pressure great he was protecting the football really impressive who knows coming off an injury if he's able to replicate any of that but still I don't think Falcons fans are crazy to be optimistic um now something that concerns me a little the weakness of this Steelers pass defense was the Deep ball they're actually top 10 against the uh intermediate pass and the short pass that's where Kirt cousins was throwing all of his passes last year he's in the top 10 in frequency short pass and intermediate pass didn't really throw the Deep ball much last year uh now that's razor thin but it's something Steelers defense might be equipped to give him some problems uh speaking of the Steelers defense here are their metrics from last year yeah little concerning that they allowed 4.4 yards per carry that was 22nd in the NFL 12th and run defense EPA 12th and uh 13th and run defense DVA decent numbers against the pass but with Patrick Queen joining that team and inside linebacker combined with the fact that they were so injured at that position last year you got Patrick Queen and Landon Roberts on the inside healthy I expect the Steelers run defense to take a giant step forward and definitely be in the top 10 this year which is why I can't lay three points with the Falcons here I just can't do it I'm not big on this Steelers team but not laying three points with the Falcons Kurt Cousins coming off an Achilles injury with a brand new offense brand new system offensive coordinator that's never called plays before against the Steelers pass rush I mean that just sounds like a nightmare so as far as picking aside I guess it would only be Steelers plus three I'm also looking at the under at 422 um really not sure what kind of pace we're going to see from the Falcons offense so I don't know what I'm going to do here it'll be Steelers plus three under 42 2 and A2 though uh if I bet this game it'll be something in that department I'll let you know on the live show as of right now I haven't placed a bet yet live shows Monday through Friday 4 p.m. eastern time Saturday and Sunday 10:00 a.m. eastern time we'll go through every single game on the board make our final decisions bring on guests same thing we always do if you're able to make it we love to see in the comments if you want to see all the bets I currently have open right now head over to kyle.com and click on open bets you can see all the bets I have opened as well as everyone on the staff here so head over to the website and sign up for sauce Network plus if you're interested uh also comes with access to the Discord and you can participate in the weekly betting League starts on Thursday uh $150 and a trophy go to the winner every single week so head over and sign up if you're interested let's have ourselves a great NFL week one remember to bet responsibly and I'll talk to you in the Discord