Best Bets for NFL Week 1 | Top Picks and Predictions (2024)

Intro welcome in everybody to betting Pros it's time to place your bets it's me Joey P Joe p is AIA and this is bpnl and with me Andrew Erikson The Undertaker my boy Terrell Ferman and all of you hanging out with us because football is here we're fired up we're getting into arguments before the show even started this is going to be fantastic today we're talking about our Best Bets and some of the Best Bets the guys have I think are the worst bets so we're going to have uh just a barn burner of an episode don't forget everybody if you haven't already sub subscribe to the betting Pros YouTube channel also subscribe to the podcast wherever you get your pods and download the betting Pros app start betting smarter not harder it's on iOS it's on Android it's everywhere you can sync your sports books for free it'll track your bets across all the sports books give you the best lines so you can be the best better you could possibly be again you can also get a free trial of betting Pros premium right now by downloading the app and activating your trial on the upgrade screen so download the app and get winning some money gentlemen it's always an exciting day week one uh is kicking off uh tonight officially and you know crazy things always happen in week one Terell I always feel like with the new changes to the preseason that week one and two you don't want to overreact too much a lot of teams are basically still in preseason mode do you approach this week kind of in the same mentality yeah I mean a little bit I don't want to look too much into last year these are brand new teams brand new rosters Brandon coaching staffs for a lot of people so I try sometimes I'm looking into last year but not a lot really I'm just trying to analyze the play on the field and just who I think is going to be better like you got to understand this is a league of growth there's a lot of players who were bad one year and going to be good next year I mean who's going to be the random fantasy irrelevant player that's been for the past three years and then he's going to be fantasy relevant this year and everybody's going to love him like it's so fun to see how everybody grows in the NFL so I try to tackle week one a little bit different than the rest of the weeks of the Season Erikson you got a fresh cut I see for the season that looks good uh number two a stark reminder of um really what happens you know in week one and sometimes the craziness you're wearing a gab Davis Jersey to remind us all of the chaos I see yes for the the week one Victory laps for Gabe Davis we we never quite recovered from the amount of exercise we got from those Victory laps because it did not end well for Gabe Davis That season so it's just a reminder that a lot of things are going to happen in week one and a lot of takes are going to be cemented in stone this is reality this is going to how the entire season's going to play out that's not reality so I'm looking forward to taking advantage of some of those things when we talk about these games week two week three but I'm excited pumped for week one I think I got a Sammy Watkins Jersey around here somewhere oh Sammy Watkins key we Victory laps that is a good one let me tell you very excited about that also I can't wait till we get to the end of this show today you're going to want to stick around to the end because not only do I have the parlay of the week and the upset special to give you but these two guys are on a game that I'm on the opposite end of so make sure you're watching the whole time cuz it's going to be entertaining I'm just telling you that all right let's start with Tampa and the commanders uh look Jen Daniels making his first start you've got some feelings about this game Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Terrell lay him on us all right I mean it's jayton Daniel's first start rookie quarterback week one and we have a veteran veteran coaching bunch here with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers I'm just going to go ahead and fade the hype of hey jayen Daniel's goingon to figure this thing out you still have Dan Quinn as a head coach we saw how his first head coaching s went he's 1 in5 at in week one of the Season you have a rookie slot corner for the defense matter of fact forget the rookie slot corner all the corners are bad all of the corners are bad so it doesn't matter I think that Mike Evans is going to have a feast of a day I think Chris Godwin is going to have a great day shoot we might even see Jaylen McMillan Make some noise on the other side and so uh Antoine Whitfield Jr Jordan Whitehead very very good safeties in that defense for the bucks I think they're going to be lights out all over the field I I just am fading this offensive line for the Washington commanders saying that I don't think that they're going to be able to keep Jaylen Daniels upright I don't think that a rookie quarterback playing against this veteran defense is going to go out there and light the world on fire and I think Baker is going to be smooth steady do enough with what's given to him and that's not a lot because again this Washington secondary really bad yeah really bad uh I'm excited for the jayen Daniels debut sometimes those debuts can be a little rocky especially on the road so uh that this pick makes a lot of sense to me Ericson let's go to you for the first pick and you're already jumping in to the pool for the Friday game so let's get this one out quick yeah we're going to Brazil with the Philadelphia Eagles and the Green Green Bay Packers vs.Philadelphia Eagles Bay Packers and I'm not convinced that even on a neutral field that the Eagles are the superior team to the Green Bay Packers who was playing late into the NFC playoffs last year it was not the Philadelphia Eagles it was the Green Bay Packers who had the 49ers on the run up in that game so for me I'm looking at how well the Packers played last year especially as underdogs looking what they did so 67% against the spread as an underdog in 2023 they were six and six overall so they were winning games straight up as underdogs so I don't see this Eagles team with a new offensive coordinator coming in new defensive coordinator coming in Nick serani calling the shots as the CEO head coach that we're going to see it just turn on a dime from last year's collapse when they lost six of their last seven games they were losing games that they had no business even being close so I'm going to take the Packers make Friday night a memorable one Packers on the money line all right there you go everybody Packers on the money line the most popular pick this week uh for Survivor pools Sam talked about on yesterday's show you can go back and check that out actually it was a Tuesday show what am I saying time is flying this week uh the green uh excuse me the uh New England Patriots going to Cincinnati which means of course it's going to go sideways uh but uh Terrell I New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals see you have some feelings about the Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals in a way you'd like to approach this uh the Bengals are historically a team that kind of get out of the gate a little slow you got the Jamar Chase thing going we don't know how much he's going to play in this game I expect him to play in this game I think we all do I don't know if it's going to be a full compliment of snaps but let's talk about this one here let's talk about the Patriots and the Bengals how do you see this one working out yeah so I think that the Patriots defense isn't getting enough credit and I think that gerro Mayo is going to have them playing a lot better is there concerns around the line yes there is I'm concerned about the pass rush but the Bengals don't have a really good offensive line either like I have concerns on their offensive line in fact they were actually 23rd in pass rush win weight last year so uh I I don't think that they're going to be able to generate their own pass rush against the Patriots I don't think that they're going to be able to really I think it's 50/50 honestly on both lines on both sides of the ball I think both offensive lines give me question both defensive lines I think give me question and then everybody's like oh well look at the wide receivers for the Bengals and hold on wait a minute the Patriots still have Jonathan Jones and Christian Gonzalez who people forget after uh after he got hurt in week four last year with a torn laum before that he was really really good he shadowing injury he was shadowing uh uh amond R State Brown I think he shadowed Garrett Wilson during that span too like he was taking on the number one receiver and so now him and Chris him and Jonathan Jones on the outside I think it's going to be really really good jacobe Brett also another name people are not respecting in fact if you put this line on Jobe Brett's games his last season starting in 2022 he would have been 82 and one to this number so 82 and one ATS to this number he was keeping his team in close games when he was playing for the Cleveland Browns look at last season when he played for the commanders and he's came in that game in relief in the Jets he brought them back with three straight touchdowns like jacobe B I'm not saying he's a great quarterback no I'm not saying that but he's serviceable I think that a good defense this Bengals team had all this stuff going on in the off season we still have questions on the offensive line Patrick the Pat is going to keep this close eight points I've seen nine at some places no no I think this is more of a four fivepoint game all right Andrew Erikson that's good news for our Patriots maybe looking a little bit uh you know better than people realize Atlanta Falcons uh Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons they're going to be at home debuting their new quarterback they're going to be at home with some new pieces on defense and the Pittsburgh Steelers are coming to town now I am concerned about the Pittsburgh Steelers in this one uh like Tom's got ready everyone ready to play I have concerns about Russell Wilson uh his ability to avoid Zach his ability to uh not turn the football over in this game too because I think that pass rush is going to be ferocious on him uh what are your feelings on Atlanta and Pittsburgh I'm on the Atlanta side here but you seem to be on the opposite end well I just don't have confidence that we're going to see this falcon offense step in immediately in week one against a fierce Pittsburgh Steelers defense that Mike Tomlin gets the most out of every single year especially when they're playing on the road as underdogs this is a classic spot where you usually want to back the Steelers where the Falcons are coming they didn't play any of their guys in the preseason at all I think they're going to come out Rusty we haven't seen Kirk Cousins play since week eight of last year he's coming off the Toran Achilles so I think they're going to be a slow start out of the gates yes the Steelers offense has not looked great in the preseason but at least they're playing in the preseason at least they're trying to get their starters ready to go for this Falcons defense that I'm not super concerned about now it's not really about the offenses particularly on the Pittsburgh side it's about how good their defense is they still have TJ Watt that's going to give issues for the Atlanta Falcons who could come out a little bit slow again this is the Arthur Smith Revenge bowl game it's about who's more motivated though is it all the skill players that were mised by Arthur smth Drake London great Robinson like the Revenge game is the Players against Arthur Smith more than Arthur Smith on on the players I'm sorry that that's Arthur Smith has Intel about all those guys they drafted really high he knows their strengths and he knows their weaknesses so he's definitely told his defensive players Mike Tomlin hey Drake London bejan Robinson Kyle pittz I know how not to use them the right way so I can tell you exactly how you need to defend these certain types of players so I just think especially with the Falcons being the all hype preseason team they're buying their way to a championship quote unquote and the Steelers are going to come in and upset it just like they always always do in a really weird way they're going to run the football they're going to keep it low scoring and it's just going to cause frustrations for the Atlanta Falcons so just given how well the Steelers have been like last year they were five and four against the spread in the money line on the road so this team again I'm not willing to call the upset but three and a half they can keep this within a field goal I'll take that all right it's a conversation obviously that we'll continue to have the next couple days and of course if you want to have more conversations when it comes to wagering you can do that on betting Pros Discord and the NFL podcast group and you can go ahead and do that over at bettingpros docomo join our Discord and of course you can make all your Wagers actually mean a little something here or just your picks not even your Wagers in that sense you sync all your picks over on the BP app and you go join our NFL podcast group and we're giving away some prizes there uh monthly and for the big end of year prize as well over betting pros.com NFL contest or if you're on the app just go to the Community page and you can find on that Community tab the uh sports betting uh group there for NFL podcast and of course you can follow all of us I just logged all of my picks for this week and I've also logged all of my picks for some of the Futures Market to over bettingpros docomo you could follow Terrell same thing bettingpros docomo and of course Erikson as well at bettingpros docomond all right let's go to another pick here this one this one I like I like this one a lot Terrell in in fact I Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears think that uh dang you didn't like the other ones I I I like the other ones I like the other ones this one I really like uh I think if you look at the history of the rookie quarterbacks the week one typically does not go well now Caleb Williams has a lot of hype a lot of expectations they're taking on the Titans a team that everybody's kind of leaving for dead and and I don't like the titans this year but I like the Titans in this spot and so do you so let's talk about it because you don't even like them necessarily on the points but you're even maybe looking for them to possibly win outright yes 100% I love the titans this year I think they're going to be a sleeper team and at the end of the season we're going to look at this Tennessee team and we're going to be like wow that went really really good and they kept us in a lot of games and they were fun to bet or that team was just horrible they put up a bunch of points but they didn't do anything on defense but I think the defense has improved this year I think it'll keep them in games they bring in lerus Sneed who is a really really good corner for Kansas City comes over and he's probably going to Shadow the best matchup for majority of the season for them including in this game with DJ Moore DJ Moore he faced him last year for the Kansas City Chiefs DJ Moore was one for four three yards in that game you look at Roger mccre another name on the defense people don't know he was really good in the slot Jeffrey Simmons Arden key like I think the defense is going to be able to throw something at Caleb Williams and it's going to be unlike he's seen before especially in college and we've seen Caleb Williams in college face a tough defense and kind of be rattled a little bit plus I'm all over the will Levis train I mean all the way all the way easy that feels like a train that's going to break down at New Jersey Transit that Andrew Eric house on like that's not doesn't sound like a good train at all Bryce Callahan and Nick Colts have a plan they've been talking about this all season all offseason how they want to get this offense rolling they bring in Calvin Ridley and you have DeAndre Hopkins there I think those are two really good weapons on the outside form you bring in Tyler boydd who's going to be very solid for them in the slot he doesn't have to be a world beater but it's just something consistent he's going to consistent options on the outside to be able to go to I think they'll be able to get the wins and do you remember the four touchdown game in his first game like that was the that was the peak he showed us we can have four touchdown on hold on no cuz it's a whole different coaching staff it's a whole different coaching hold on hold on but do you also remember after that tape that he didn't do anything after everyone's like okay these are strikes that's why you move on from the defensive head coach you bring in Bryce Kahan a very good offensive minded head coach everybody talks about everything Joe burrow and Cincinnati Bengals they went to the to the Super Bowl all that that was all Bryce Callahan he really really helped that offense and so this is his chance to show it hey it's not just Joe burrow I can do it with Will Levis will Levis is a he's jamus he is literally jamus we had so much fun with jamus and now we're gonna have fun with Will Levis will EV is getting this done this is a really good defense I think the offense is going to be way better this year plus four and a half sprinkle on the money line This Titans team is going to be good the jamus comparison is is spot on probably I mean there's going to be a lot of that a lot of ducking and ducking kind of kind of scenarios there uh that's all that's all I need I don't need that's all you need that's fair hey if he doesn't win this outright I'm not mad I got four and a half points and look at says 2018 first round quarterbacks in their first game 515 and one ATS yeah it's not going well the four and a half I absolutely love I don't know if I'm quite ready for them to win outright but I I like where your head's at there uh the train of will Levis again Andrew that kind of reminds me of that turkey sandwich that you ate on the Amtrak I think that's like the will Levis train it kind had that feeling that you ate and you showed up at my house you're like I don't feel well I think something's a little wrong I said what did you do you said you ate a a turkey sandwich from the amtr I was like that's a first mistake that's why you got the WWA on the way back you packed the WWA sandwich from my house W Subs are undefeated I love I know W I wish Wawa was an official sponsor I talk about the Wawa stuff all the time on the baseball Joe you know schwarber Fest we do a whole thing with the Wawa so I got a they a Wawa on my corner for the last 12 years they took it away and the whole town is revolted bro they took it away because it wasn't a gas station Wawa or whatever it was and the whole town is revolted the thing that they put there the gross ass whatever fake ass Mart that they put there instead nobody goes there I'm just saying don't take away people's Wawa they get very upset I know I do all right Andrew Ericson don't take away my WWA and said give me another pick too because you got some feelings on this uh game as well uh so let's talk about bears and Titans from your perspective yeah so I like the under in this game under 45 points so Terrell laid out the case for fading the Bears offense against the Titans so I'll just par or parot that but I'm not as high on will Levis in this particular matchup on the road against I I don't think you're giving enough credit to the Bears defense that was Elite during the second half of last season the best run defense in the NFL seven of the Bears last 10 games went under the total 41 And1 towards the under in their last six games they're playing at home Soldier Field hostile environment for a inexperienced seconde quarterback in a new offense playing behind a shaky offensive line so I'm fading both quarterbacks in this game and I want to take the under all the way because it's 45 points for a guy making his first start and a guy making I think his fifth start on the road you look at will L and what he did on the road last year he the Titans lost by 14 plus points twice and they went one and three against the spread so I have no confidence that will Lis on the road and to the jamus Winston comparison the only thing that I don't see is Callahan's offense last year extremely low average depth of Target they weren't launching the ball down field so I think we're going to see a little bit more of a conservative approach with Will Levis in this particular matchup to kind of save him from himself and short dump off passes to taji Spears and Tony Pard last I agree with that the Bears defense last year what were their weakest against running backs in the passing game so I think that's how they're going to move the ball dump off passes but that doesn't result in a lot of points so I'm just going to take the under on the game overall I like Pard in this game I like the four and a half I'm going to stay away from the overrun I'm going to stay away from the money line I'm just a little bit more conservative on this one so many variables but I think this is going to be a fun game to watch let's go to the fourth picks on the board here for the Gentlemen let's start here with the Cardinals a tough start for the year for them having to go Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills on the road into Buffalo but it's September in Buffalo so let's not overrate it too much it's not like it's December and it's snowing or any of that nonsense uh right now you can get 6 and a half here on the Arizona Cardinals and it looks like Terrell you're taking that oh 100% I am not laying six and a half with Josh Allen first game of the season and we have to see what he looks like with this new offense and if it even translate all the way without Stefan digs like I think people get mad at oh ston Diggs is kind of trending down and all of that and Josh Allen doesn't need him and everything but what was Josh Allen doing before Diggs I mean he he was about back you know this oh he's got all his potential after Diggs gets there and then before Diggs was there he was kind of average and just hey he's nice and he'll be on the way and he's on the rise but he's not there yet I just I question the turnovers I question the decision excuse me the decision making in the red zone and I think here the Cardinals have a really really good offense their offensive coordinator is actually getting looks for what he did last season for next season to be a head coach that's how good of an offense they did they were looking good they got a win on the road against the Eagles late last year and that was a really really big win for them you look at Josh Allen when he's closed as a favorite of four or more he's 816 and 1 18s Kyler as a dog 115 and two uh as a dog of four points or more excuse me he's 115 and two ATS I don't think the bills have an answer for Trey McBride at all I would take all the Trey McBride props that I can I think Trey McBride is goingon to have a huge game I think Kyler's going to be able to extend with his legs against that uh bills front seven and be able to create for his his teammates for a Marvin Harrison J J or Wilson something like that cuz that's a very very good Bild secondary but I think Kyler's legs can make him create and extend plays and be able to get his targets open and then I'm just going to back Jonathan Ganon and that defense and I think he's going to find a way to make them somewhat comparable like they were horrible it was so bad last year it that was the bottom that was the bottom even if they're slightly better this year I think they have a chance six and a half is just way too many points and I'm just not g to back it all right uh Andrew Erikson let's get to your next pick here because you also are again on the same game as Terrell I do like the Cardinals plus six and a half as well but I'm approaching it with the under because I think that the total is just way too high at 48 and a half for two teams that want to onun the football this isn't the aerial show that we're going to get from both these teams look at last year when James Conor came back Kyler Murray came back they had a negative pass rate overe expectation they wanted to run the football what happened when Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills they established the Run they got rid of ston Diggs they have a bunch of young receivers with Josh Allen to me it doesn't make any sense for the Bills game plan to be okay we're going to go and air it out with all these brand new receivers when we know the Cardinals weakest part of their defense is against the Run makes no sense to me why this total is at 48 and a half it's because oh Josh Allen Kyler Murray two quarterbacks that are fun 48 and a half that's where the total is coming from so I think that this is a great value betting the under here you look at what the bills were with the under over last year games in Buffalo only averaged 46 and a half points was 5 and five towards the over under and the Cardinals they were a team where every game at home was essentially going over seven and2 towards the over at home but on the road two and six so the Cardinal team is again another offense that plays much better at home in a dome again this isn't Buffalo crazy weather but it's still Outdoors so it's still a little bit different for Arizona and their offense so for me I think the two teams wanting to run the football establish the Run you're going to get a a score that goes way under 48 and a half and again to to Terrell's point I still also because it's going to be lower scoring I think the Cardinal plus six and a half also makes a ton of sense all right before we get to the parlay of the week and of course my upset special got one more game to breakdown here that the guys are both on and it's Monday Night Football it's the San Francisco New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers 49ers uh I believe taking out their aggressions on the New York Jets but Terrell let's get your take on this game first and how you want to approach it from a wagering standpoint oh yeah because I'm about to be quick and let y'all battle it out and sit back and relax I I for one paused on the side and I took the under under Prime Time under Prime Time under Prime Time under I really don't have a handicap it's a prime time under we got two really really good defenses probably two of the top defenses in the NFL Aaron Rogers hasn't played football in over a year you had all the Trent Williams holding out or holding in or whatever it is for the 49ers you had Brandon auk who was a Steeler and then he was a brown and then he was a patriot and then he was a commander and then he was a stealer again and then he and then he finally signed his deal with the 49ers I think all of that goes into play but really it's just the prime time unders they've been like 60% over the past five years uh closer to 75% over the past two years like they've been really really good and this is a really good spot for two teams that actually has some history Aaron roders Revenge game type sort of with the 49ers stop he's been in the league a quarter of a from California he's from California he's lost in the playoffs multiple times to this team it's a Revenge game might be at the game your your chances of Revenge have coming G Rogers sorry he's six and three in a regular season versus them all right that's not my let me get out of the way here y y'all can go y'all have Andrew Ericson your take on the 49ers Jets game so I'm taking Tak the Jets plus four and a half on the road and it's really less about the Jets per se and more about how overrated the 49ers are at home last year three and seven against the spread this offensive Juggernaut that was Unstoppable that could not be beat at home could not be beat anywhere well they never covered the spread basically at home three and seven that was fourth worst in the NFL the road team has covered the spread each of the 49ers last 12 games they are so overrated they just an overrated team so for me layering all the offseason Antics when's auk going to show up when's Trent Williams going to show up are these guys in shape Ricky peol this is a big thing this guy almost died there there's the a lot of distractions with this 49ers team and for me the Jets are all in and I think it's upset alert so that's why I'm going with the Jets plus four and a half against an overrated 49ers team at home so it's nothing I love more than the Jets with expectations just every single time it never fails I want to ask you this before I begin I seem to remember I think it was about 10 to 12 minutes ago in the past where somebody was talking about uh Kirk Cousins coming off an injury and not playing and and not having the groove of the offense and all that stuff and now you're trying to sell me somehow that the New York Jets at this game with Aaron roders who hasn't played a snap of football since what January of 2023 I want to say is the last time okay it is the fall now almost just about of 2024 he was already a quarterback in Decline this notion that like look the Jets defense is really good I'm going to give the Jets the defense Bree Hall's terrific Talent so it's Garrett Wilson I think the Jets are going to be competitive for that division but however I think all that noise all that frustration you're right I'm the guy who's been all these shows Fad in the 49ers I'm fading them in 2024 I'm not fading him in this game I'm just not going to do it the 49ers are going to take out all their aggression on the New York Jets you're telling me that Aaron Rogers wasn't played a single snap in the preseason he's going to go 3,000 Mi on a plane and let's not pretend like there's no drama going on with that organization with the clown of an offensive coordinator they've got with uh Robert Salah as their head coach and they're going to go against Kyle Shanahan who by the way is too fancy for his own good all of the time Kyle Shanahan lost them that Super Bowl hand the ball to Christian McCaffrey five more times and you got a ring on it baby and that's what Beyonce would be telling you let me tell you something else they've also got a situation here where you have got Christian mcaffrey actually going to play this week okay he's going to actually be there Brandon auk is going to play so everybody right now is going to be on the field and playing what it looks like the the the toll this season's going to take on just the way it did for the Eagles last year it took its toll on them the schedule took its toll some of the other stuff going around all took its tll that is going to happen eventually to the 49ers at some point ain't going to happen this week I am sorry I think it's a joke and I think it's because the Jets are a New York public team and everyone's got their expectations high again and once again when Jet fans expectations are high how often does that work out well so give me the 49ers I'll even I'll even push this one to the alternate spread give me five and a half y give me give it give me all the 49ers this week Welsh she be happy with me so there you go how about a little parlay of the week Gentlemen let's pick this apart I love the Las Vegas Raiders this week they're also my upset special so we might as well just Upset Special #1 - Las Vegas Raiders vs. LA Chargers do that for upset special on the money line the Chargers have no home field advantage Harbaugh is there but we don't know what this off talk about we don't know what an offense is Gus Edwards JK Dobbins how healthy are they how good are they Justin Herbert come off a foot injury Josh pommer is no more Keenan Allen there no more Mike Williams there's lad makoni I like all those guys in theory but I got to see it in practice give me the Raiders give me that pass rush with Max Crosby give me them running the football playing defense and I think they come out here with the W I love him plus 148 on the money line my upset special of the week and if you put that together with the Dallas Cowboys at plus 2 and a half on the road against the Shawn Watson and the Cleveland Browns and of course the San Francisco 49ers the minus 4 and a half you get plus 802 Erikson what do you think about those apples just make sure you cash out for the 49ers game you'll be good to go no no I'm going to double down I'm GNA double down for that Cowboys game Terell what are your thoughts on the Raiders though at the upset special of the week because to me again like we all think that Harbaugh is going to turn around the Chargers MH but who are the Chargers right now and defensively who have the Chargers been like all of a sudden why are the Chargers getting so much credit we saw Antonio Pierce take that Raiders team and win in Arrowhead last year that was very impressive I think it carries over a little bit in week one what do you think yeah I think the Chargers are getting his love one because jar HRA but it's also the post boy Justin Herbert who everybody's trying to tell me is an amazing quarterback and I've just yet said let me see it that's it just let me see it me he set the passing record that's not enough for you that he's good no no it's not you need to be consistent year over year no you need to be consistent year over year they're trying to sell me that he's a top three quarterback in the league and I don't believe it no I don't think he's that good I think he's a a solid starting quarterback they're definitely way better than whatever I have going on in New York for sure but I I just think that I want to see more and I don't think he has the options around him and so I think this is a three-point game either way honestly truly I think that the hard ball thing is a thing I think that he will get them to play better that was the bottom last year and I think they will play better than they did last year but if they play better than they did last year is that going to be so much better I don't think so so I like the points I think the Chargers are going to be a work in progress that will progress over the year but it's week one and again give me that defense I think the Raiders defense is very underrated they were a top 10 defense in fantasy last year too people forget that that's one of those sneaky last round picks like if the defenses went that I didn't like that I liked and they were gone too soon let me just wait until the end and go take the Raiders that nobody seems to want ericon do you have an upset special of the week or are you in with me on the Raiders again upset special of the week yeah I mean if Dallas wins it's an upset isn't Upset Special #2 - Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns it 100% it is win yeah how how Deshawn Watson is favored in a game I don't care if it's at home I don't understand Terrell you're shaking your head why what is your take on this Browns Cowboys Browns game the Cowboys are overrated I think the Cowboys are overrated have any Run game no but okay so but the Browns also have a top five maybe top three offensive line in the league they have Jerome Ford who is a really really good running back and if you keep the ball out of deshun Watson's hands and only have him pass on on select Downs then I think that you're good I'm not saying that they're going out here and running the score up by 30 but I think that very very good offensive line back by Jerome Ford and by Pierre strong is going to be really really good running the ball against this Dallas defense and I think that Dallas has no Run game and I question Dak Prescott as a quarterback on the road Outdoors when Dallas scores on defense that's when this game goes south for the Browns and they're going to score on defense I believe bet that one this week this has been fun I can't believe we've got like what 17 more Outro weeks of this and that's just the regular season wait till get the playoff tired of us oh wait wait Joe I do have an upset alert oh yeah it's car it's the Carolina Panthers oh that's right you're you're Cur you are on this you are wearing the the black and the blue proud hopefully you don't come denn Allen till till he's no longer the coach that that's that's a good strategy all right hope everybody enjoyed the Best Bets of the week for week one again we're going to be here every single week doing this and don't forget to catch the prop show with Erikson the Welsh and myself tomorrow that'll do it for us but the story of the game goes on for Terrell and Andrew I'm Joey P we'll see you next time Kids Go ners