Ravens vs Chiefs Week 1 Bets - NFL Picks With Kyle Kirms

yo what's up welcome back to another episode of the SWS it's officially NFL season Chiefs Ravens Thursday Night Football week one let's go welcome to the [Music] SS the [Music] S hey get this sew all right like I said Ravens on the road in Kansas City Chiefs are now laying three it looks like all the two and a halfs are gone this number's pretty much been hovering between 2 and A2 and three for a few weeks now total pretty much sitting at 40 oh no there's 46s now it was consensus 462 yesterday but it looks like there are 46s up uh so yeah total 46 or 462 so let's get into this one and we'll start with some head-to-head history uh these two teams have met eight times since 2010 pretty split the Chiefs are 5 and three in those eight games but against the spread they're split 4 and four against the spread also 4 and four as far as the total as well to the over and under so pretty split as far the as the history between these two now obviously the lead story when it comes to Ravens Chiefs is the AFC Championship game right I mean I'm sure you've heard it a million times I'm sure Ravens fans are sick of it I couldn't imagine what Baltimore sports radio has been like over the last few months why didn't they run the ball right I mean AFC Championship Game Baltimore gives just six carries to their running backs in that game and the reason that was so crazy is Kansas City's defense first of all was great last year fifth in yards per play fourth in success rate sixth in EPA great defense but the glaring weakness of their defense was defending the Run they had a great pass defense an Elite pass defense but against the Run they were bottom half of the NFL and Baltimore had one of the most successful rushing attacks in the league fifth uh first in yards per carry third in EPA first in dvoa arguably the best rushing attack in the NFL so why wouldn't you run it and also to take it a step further Kansas City's defense last season was considered to be one of the best against dual threat quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson last season against uh Justin Fields Josh Allen Jaylen Herz just 3.27 yards per carry in a 64 average passer rating so the Chiefs had also been very good against dual threat quarterbacks which further hammers on the question why didn't you give the ball to the RBS but we don't need to talk about that because it's been beaten to death so what do we think about this matchup I mean are we looking at the same sort of matchup here obviously the we're all looking at this like well I'm sure hard Ball's going to and the ball off after what happened in that AFC Championship game um but I don't think it's that simple this Chief's defense is constructed a little bit differently um here's the the current depth chart and it's not that these are all new pieces in fact all three of those pieces of the secondary that are labeled new they were all on the team last year they're just new in terms of being in the starting lineup so maybe based on the fact that the Chiefs have some new faces in the secondary that pass defense isn't going to be quite as Elite this year especially when one of the pieces they lost was Sneed one of the best corners in football but here's the thing Spagnola is still coaching the chief's defense and as long as Spagnola is coaching the chief's defense we're going to see a lot of blitzing a lot of man coverage and that's what we're bringing up right now man coverage Chiefs ran man coverage on 54% of their defensive snaps uh last year that's seven most in the NFL Lamar Jackson great year throwing the ball but significantly better passing numbers against Zone coverage in fact he's probably a top three top four quarterback in the NFL against Zone coverage not quite the same against man coverage and as far as the Baltimore receiving weapons go they don't have the prototypical man coverage beater you know what I'm saying I mean z flowers is technically the wide receiver one and Z flowers is cool but I mean look at his numbers against man coverage last year just 1.35 yards per route run passer rating when targeted 70.1 so he was relatively ineffective against man coverage last year yeah Nelson agalar actually had some nice looking numbers against man coverage but as a whole the Ravens receiving weapons don't really have a man coverage beater like that so even though the Kansas City secondary should definitely take a step back this year with the new pieces and the loss of Sneed I don't know if the Ravens are necessarily the team that are going to exploit that CU they're not really a team that's equipped to beat man coverage like that also what was the strength of this Kansas City defense last year it was the pass defense but specifically it was the pass rush they led the NFL they were first in the NFL and adjusted sack rate um seventh in Blitz rate second in pressure rate like I said first in adjusted sack rate now Lamar Jackson excellent numbers when pressured in fact he led the NFL in yards per pass attempt when pressured but look at the pressur to sack rate 21st 18.7% so although his passing numbers look good when pressured definitely took a lot of sacks which further hammers home the point that I don't think the Ravens are the team to exploit this Chiefs pass defense which may take a step backwards this year I think they still need to run the ball on the problem is the offensive line and I'm sure you've heard this a thousand times as well the Ravens offensive line is definitely being talked about they lost 3,083 snaps from last year on the offensive line most in the NFL by a solid margin and their main piece that they're bringing back on the offensive line coming off the worst season of his career 4.1% blown block rate worst of his career so even the piece of even the production they brought back on the offensive line I'm a little bit unsure about we saw this Ravens offense in the AFC Championship Game try to throw on Kansas City it wasn't pretty I mean Lamar Jackson 20 of 37 272 yards one touchdown one interception 75 5.5 passer rating so yes we keep circling around the same I'm feel like I'm saying making the same point over and over again the Ravens need to run the ball I don't think they're going to exploit the Chiefs pass defense which maybe goes from first to fifth but here's the thing I don't know if Baltimore's rushing attack is necessarily going to be the same this year I mentioned earlier it was the most efficient rushing attack in the NFL last year and they add Derk Henry but look at rushing yards above replacement from last year Derrik Henry 17th in the NFL Gus Edwards was 20 20th now I'm not saying derck Henry isn't an upgrade of course he is but I think the amount of an upgrade that he is to the Ravens offense is getting severely overrated so with that Baltimore offensive line taking what I think might be a dramatic step backwards I don't think we can expect the Ravens to be the most efficient rushing attack in the NFL again so overall I like this match up a lot for the Chiefs defense on paper now on the other side we got the Chiefs offense and I mean there's really not a ton to say here most of us are pretty familiar with the Chiefs offense by this point Point um here are their numbers from last year kind of a Down year by Kansas City chief standards by Patrick mahom standers they were seventh in yards per play 12th in success rate 11th in EPA uh here are their passing numbers again definitely a down year for momes 6.9 yards per pass attempt which was 19th in the NFL 12th in passing EPA sixth in dvoa pretty average looking rushing numbers to me the most shocking numbers last year uh where Patrick Mahomes numbers went pressured you could see I mean not great 6.2 yards per attempt 61 .5 passer rating when pressured which was just 24th best in the NFL amongst quarterbacks but here's the thing I mean it's kind of a moot point because he kind of figured this out second half of the Season into the playoffs he was doing a much better job with it but for the first two-thirds of the regular season he was struggling when pressured so is this even relevant to bring up right now if he's figured this out and this is a thing of the past also second in the NFL in pressure to sack rate so very good at avoiding sacks as I'm sure you already know now something I do think we need to bring up though is Mahomes numbers against man coverage Baltimore ran a ton of man coverage last year and yeah McDonald's gone but the guy who took over was with the team last year so I expect to see similar play calling at least somewhat um they were sixth in the NFL in man coverage frequency and Patrick Mahomes we talked about this a lot last year Patrick Mahomes not the most effective passing numbers against man coverage in fact I mean some of these are pretty bad a negative EPA 24th in the NFL and turnover worthy play rate against man coverage now this is probably a reflection of the wi receivers he had last year they weren't winning their one-on-one battles in man coverage so did the Chiefs do anything to address this and the answer is yes they brought in Hollywood Brown who is obviously hurt and won't be playing in this game but he is there um and they drafted Xavier worthy so two guys extremely gifted athletes very fast should be a nightmare as far as man coverage so they did address this in theory unfortunately Hollywood Brown's going to miss this game like I said so we won't get to see it in week one but as the season progresses that should be a plus um now they're up against the Ravens defense and I don't even need to tell you this was a very good unit last year they actually led the NFL and yards were play allowed second in EPA six in success rate first in DVA absolutely Elite against the pass this is the best pass defense in the NFL last year and it wasn't really close just 5.2 yards per pass attempt allowed which was first in the NFL second in pass defense EPA first in dvoa they were vulnerable to the run at times and I actually think that could be a problem this year we'll get into that but as far as their numbers against the pass I mean they were pretty Elite pass Rush was solid ninth in pass rush grade second in adjusted sack rate problem is Kansas City does a great job protecting Patrick Mahomes they always had last year they were the sixth rated pass blocking offensive line and they were second in adjusted sack rate allowed and the thing with the Ravens pass rush I think we have to believe this takes a step backwards keep in mind jaavan Clowney is gone he had nine and a half sacks last year he's no longer with the team and matuk and Kyle vanoi two guys that are going to be key pieces in the Ravens pass rush this year they both had career highs and sacks last year so they might be due for some regression and also Patrick Queen is gone now that's more of a factor against the run and we'll get to that in a second but as a whole I don't think we can realistically expect this Ravens pass rush to be top five again they should take a step backwards and I mentioned earlier how the Ravens were vulnerable to the run last year without Patrick Queen they're going to take a step backwards in that department as well so I mean look it's the Baltimore Ravens their secondary Kyle Hamilton Marcus Williams I mean they're Elite they're still going to be a great defense but as far as how good they were last year I think there's no question we can expect to step backwards remember defensive genius Mike McDonald is no longer there he's the head coach for Seattle now so they lost their defensive coordinator as well so I'm not that big on the Ravens defense look I'm not saying this will be a bad defense by any stretch but no question this defense should take a step backwards which is why I can't take Baltimore in this opener I mean I know Ravens at plus three it looks pretty alluring especially the Revenge angle the Chiefs just got him in the AFC Championship no question if you're handicapping the game using the storyline of the NFL the Ravens would be the play the Ravens win this one then the Chiefs get another shot in the playoffs and beat them that's how it usually goes something like that right so if you're handicapping the games based on the storyline of the NFL the Ravens would win this one but on paper no question the Ravens may have gotten worse on both sides of the ball and the Chiefs I mean are pretty much the same when when Hollywood Brown's healthy and those receivers are acclimated into the lineup they might even be better so yeah I'm leaning towards the Chiefs here now I'm probably not going to lay the full three um I think what I'm going to do is just bet the under 462 I think Baltimore's offense is going to struggle to score and I can see Patrick Mahomes coming out with a little Super Bowl rust so I just bet the under 46 and A2 but I lean towards the Chiefs if I can if a 2 and a half pops back up I might grab the Chiefs at two and a half just so I can bet the opener I'd like to have some action on it but as far as what I think the best bet is I'd say under 462 with the lean on the Chiefs if you'd like to see all the bets I currently have open head over to kyle.com and click on open bets you'll see mine listed under sauce you could also click on all the members of the staff here and see their open bets um also when you sign up for sauce Network plus you get access to the Discord and you get to participate in the weekly betting League the trophies are in um so every week you get assigned a division you make picks division winners uh compete on Monday Night Football $150 and one of these trophies to the handicapping champion every week so if you're interested in that head over to uh kms.com and sign up for sauce Network plus your picks need to be in by Thursday night if you're getting in on week one now there's a new a new league starts every week so if you miss week one no big deal but if you want in on week one picks need to be submitted in the Discord or on the website by Thursday all right we're here with our Underdog pick them first of the Season we got three legs here and we're we're going and we're firing here Z flowers lower than 51 and a half receiving yards already talked about this on the live He's not the best against man coverage he's going to have McDuffy shadowing him and I already think that they're going to come in looking to run the ball so I really like the lower there um xav you're worthy lower than three and 1 half receptions um I already think that should be at 2 and A2 he's a Speedster Nate Wiggins matches up with him perfectly at a Clemson and on top of that Reed really likes to rotate his receiver so I like the lower than three and a half receptions there and then on top of that Nelson agor higher than 16 and a half receiving yards that's a sneakiest one of them old because Nelson agor is the best guy remaining on the team that was actually good against man coverage last year yes he was the guy on the Ravens that could actually beat man coverage last year so 16 and a half receiving yards very very doable I mean who's going to be paired up against them the the sixth or the seventh round guy on the outside that they're going to be putting out there I will happily take that so yeah uh that those will be our three guys for our pick them it will be paying out six times a free pick that Underdog will be supplying for you guys uh for this week for the F for the Thursday night game is Travis Kelce over a half yard Taylor Swift's boyfriend very exciting for you guys wonderful um and then if you guys want to sign up there is a wonderful deal up to $1,000 bonus cash when you make your first deposit with the code uh free Com free promo code bet Yes you heard it up to $1,000 bonus cash when you make your first deposit with the promo code BET live shows 400 p.m. eastern time during the week 10:00 a.m. eastern time on the weekends if you're able to make it we love to see in the comments let's have ourselves a great start to the NFL season remember to bet responsibly it's a long year there's a lot of unknowns in week one especially this first game please bet responsibly uh yeah let's have a good one talk to you in the Discord n