Ravens-Chiefs, Packers-Eagles NFL Week 1 + U.S. Open bets | Bet the Edge (9/2/24) | NBC Sports

all right welcome to bet the edge I'm Jay Croucher here with Drew dini who has the woods of California uh as his Serene uh backdrop um today we're going to talk about the US Open some quick takeaways on college football uh and the official week one and then week one of the NFL season we'll have a look at Ravens Chiefs and then Packers Eagles the first two Prime Time games on tap but Drew let's start off with your darling the US Open um chaos Reigns um like flies um where do you want to start with the US Open what uh what has been most fascinating to you I mean the men's side of the draw is where all of the interest is right now uh jokovic and elry are out uh we talked about in the preview that it didn't make sense that those were the top two choices um and ultimately the fact that they're both out of it now is uh is pretty noteworthy for anyone who has you know took swings on Center nice job like he probably has like 60 chance 60% chance to win this title uh and if you bet into three to one or any kind of price around there thereabouts you're feeling pretty good um the more exciting news is for those of us who are into 100 to one or greater for Mr Gregor dimitrov he has life um he's gonna have to probably go through you know he's gonna have to do it himself he's gonna have to get by the winner of this tifo poin match which I presuming is going to be TFO and uh and then you know take on Alexander Z likely uh who is right now playing the best tennis of anyone in Q3 um but uh yeah still a long way to go and anything can happen and the fact that we have 100 to one shot that uh has a realistic chances freaking awesome and absolutely loved watching dver TR play today uh double down that him against rublev because I had made him 58% chance to win so I was very happy with that result um and ultimately like Center is not the perfect uh you know he's he's not the um unbeatable monster that he was through lots of the early part of the Season B based on all the fatigue and I think if there's one takeaway from what's going on on the men's side it surely is Olympic fatigue uh you know the fact that alcarez and and jokovic both were number one not playing very good tennis and then number two got upset in such you know astonishing fashion uh I think lends to some of the fatigue that they were carrying into the event from the uh you know Clay grass clay now hard um you know it's tough to adapt and tough to have your sharpest game at that uh you know in in with that kind of a schedule and surely that definitely played into you know why their you know quality of performances were so suspect so um not to take away from the you know the upset of uh you know and how well the challengers have been playing just in general but uh I definitely would kind of lean into that being the reason why you had such uh kind of lackluster performances from the top of the board here and uh wish I had thought of that more sincerely before the tournament started yeah I mean alarid in particular going down one of the rare in history um dollar one shots to get beat at a grand slam when you take The Vig out the fair price for him to go down was like pretty close to like 100 to one and for him to go down in straight sets that's kind of a weird pricing exercise because if a dollar one shot is going to get beat it usually means that something is like violently wrong which would you know increase the scope that they would get they would lose in straight sets more than just kind of the normal distribution of a player getting beaten um I guess would entail but yeah I mean to lose in straight sets has to be like north of 500 to one fair I would have thought but he done jovic is done um let's get into the women's side and then we'll Lo back to the men's side um Arena sabalenka who is I believe still playing as we speak if she hasn't wrapped up against uh merens um she's a little bit hard work at the second set when I last checked in but she is the favorite to win a plus 150 now eag plus 225 and then we have a massive drop off to Jessa and Carolina mov mova who plays palini um Monday mova minus 150 favorite what do you think of her chances to win that and then also to make a bit of a run of it because she's obviously got massive upside oh yeah yeah she should win this comfortably and then the upside is absolutely there palini I don't want to like say that her accomplishments this year have been in any way undeserved um but mova you know and the level in particular we saw in that match against Osaka where she took her uh you know really just like pretty incredible level that mova produced in that match if she can produce that level against palini in the quarterfinal or um you know really just at any Point here this second week of the tournament if she can play that well then she is the player to beat in this tournament um and I still look at like the way that the draw is uh distributed now it was a little bit of a unbalanced draw when we started where Saban had the softer half and the softest quarter uh and the most likely path to the final it's got even more pronounced now where the first quarter particularly on the women's side with Diana Schneider playing unbelievable tennis Pula still being a very real Contender uh EA is going to have her work cut out for her to get to uh the final of this tournament and I think mova in particular if you think back to French Open final two years ago uh where mov was the better player but lost to ea uh I think the getting a little bit of a um you know just a little karmic revenge in beating EA this year would not Shock me at all mova is playing Amazing tennis and really just like she's just a Flatout athlete like her movement on the court is is unbelievable um and her ability to put uh pressure on her opponents particularly on Ser is is kind of her distinguishing characteristics so uh you know she's just as live to break ego On Any Given uh Ser of opportunity as anyone else in this draw and I think um that could make this uh a little bit more interesting otherwise uh you know Sabal Lanka I think absolutely cruises on the bottom half Coco goof goes out today that was not expected but it was not shocking especially considering that she was playing even better when imma novaro got her last time so kind of not surprised that she got her again but um you know there there's no one in Q3 that's spooky at all from the standpoint of stopping sabinka from getting to the final and uh and I think ultimately she could probably get there with a little bit with little if any damage okay let's jump to the men's side uh where C now plus 125 clear favorite Sasha verb 3 to1 Med vdev stuck uh on Center side of the draws plus 375 and then drop off to Taylor Fritz at 12 to1 uh your man dimitrov who uh you spoke about him I think he might have even spoken about when he was north of 100 to one he is now 16 to one uh do you think that perhaps Zev despite melting uh in big situations um whenever he gets the opportunity to do so is he now the guy who is most likely to challenge c um just by virtue of the draw I think he's the most likely to choke at some point if that makes sense uh like you he he's should ultimately be the best player on the bottom half but um in a really big moment against a player who's performing well in a given opportunity he could absolutely uh fumble the bag and I think ultimately um Center does not like that Center Zev as far as a matchup in a final does not scare me at all if I'm Holding Center tickets uh and I think ultimately Z is sort of um his high Watermark is beating anyone who's not a clear top five player and sit with his his quality especially because he's taken no damage so far like he is literally coasting uh I think he would be the Clear Choice for me if that if that ultimately is your final and and just in general Zev had a 70% Carlos alcaras on the ropes in the French Open final and couldn't get it done so I know if he ultimately does uh you know kind of change his fortune it's uh it's going to be without me involved okay that's reasonable um Monday slate the headliner in a way is C who is a minus 650 favorite um over Tommy Paul um other matches of notes uh medev is Aus 800 favorite against Nuno bourges Alex deor minus 350 against Jordan Thompson and Jack Draper is minus 275 to progress as well um anything stand out on the card to you I definitely think that uh Borges is a dynamite player on this surface he's having a kind of a little bit of a breakout moment right now he's going to push meddev no question about it like I don't think meddev is on upset alert there um but give me the plus games give me the plus sets for bores he is a player that absolutely could make Med Bev's life miserable uh and then uh on the bottom half of the draw I think demon hour comes through relatively cleanly I think Jack Draper on the other hand could be in for a little bit of a test here uh Draper you know for what it's worth has has he has the tools to kind of be a semi-finalist here and I don't think we should be shocked but um he really has not been tested and uh this is the first kind of opportunity for him to catch a little bit of damage and uh if he can't uh you know kind of get through that cleanly then he ultimately could be on upset alert so bores is kind of the hot player for me as far as getting involved in a spread bet here I think that uh Cent the center match price is correct I think the Mev price is not but uh I would expect Mev comes through here be a five Setter um but uh but Bor just plus the games is my favorite play of the day okay well this is good Dre this is a men's Grand Slam is actually suspense we've got and C goes down to Tommy Paul which you know C's not minus 2500 yeah Tommy Paul's plus 400 so by market 20% chance you stripped that out like a 17 18% chance or whatever but that's a real chance happens all the time and if that happens then yeah we could be looking at like medev demitro type of finals which be insan so great yeah and well the people don't want the like planet Earth doesn't want sin Zev I don't think I think planet Earth wants medev against just not zv I guess let's let's not mince any words if it's Sinner's ver we are all team Center you can you can you can be uh a little B out of shape about the process with the uh um you know with this the steroid positive test that ultimately was not awarded any penalty but uh make it's not fair to hold those two side by side in terms of who should we be rooting for no it would be like Tom Brady after the flate gate going up against the Shawn Watson that's a fair team Brady team sner um all right let's Jump Ahead to college football um I don't think any massive results per se um largely chalky dominating Clemson perhaps the most noteworthy result outside of like Texas A&M losing to Notre Dame but I mean that wasn't a massive surprise not D only a field goal Underdog Oregon didn't look great uh Miami ran away from Florida 4117 to me that was maybe the most notable result just because of the ripples into the Heisman Market with Cam Ward kind of announcing himself as a top tier tier one type of candidate after being more like tier two coming into the season he goes from 14 to1 since uh plus 950 at MGM what were your big takeaways out of the weekend yeah um well it was a great weekend for anyone who is especially good at originating college football holy smokes uh the smart people that I talk to that originate um destroyed destroyed destroyed this week and I think that uh that is a good note which is that if you have sort of um a player level ability to synthesized price for a college football team and in current day and age where their transfer portal is dictating everything you are going to be very very far ahead of market in terms of coming up with priors for teams uh and uh I think that was very much on display with what we saw um in terms of results and you know none of this was fluky stuff like you the um you know the the heavy steamed stuff that came from The Originators that I respect the most was almost like no never really in doubt so um hat tip to Georgia for um suspending their most important running back and then still having an unbelievable display uh through the air against uh Clemson that was pretty impressive and I think Georgia had full strength is probably the team to beat in college football until uh we hear something more impressive from Ohio State I suppose but um Georgia absolutely deserves to be number one and I think uh downgrading Texas A&M is fair downgrading Florida absolutely has to happen um and in fact if I was Billy Napier I would uh I would maybe not throw away those boxes in your office just in case uh because it doesn't feel like Florida is uh happy with the the state of the program so um you know Well Done by Miami well done and Miami May ultimately actually have an inside track to take the ACC spot uh in the top four I would not be shocked at all if they're ultimately the rep there um but uh the SEC looks amazing as we thought it was going to um the Big 10 has some phenomenal defenses as we knew they did uh and then outside of that I think uh it basically you know kind of broke the way we were expecting and I think I don't want to say that there was a little bit like less of there's you know every college football game is important because it's such a short season um but I didn't really feel like any of the results had sort of the weight of well their season's over other than Florida yep no that's uh that sounds reasonable just I would say um to not go overboard and reading too much into week one of the college season just given how uh obviously you get attached to your first impression of a team the game that I always come back to thinking about you know is going to apply to any sport but specifically with football is um a few years ago when Aaron roders lost 38-3 to the Saints in week one uh and then one MVP without breaking a sweat after that he threw three picks in week one um think back like first game that Kevin Durant played with the Warriors I think the Warriors lost at home by 30 to the Spurs like weird stuff happens and with how dependent College uh or just how variable College performance is based on opponents uh in terms of just the kind of variance and the spread it's not like the NFL where obviously you kind of range from like Max to 17 point favorite um down whereas you know in college you can put up you know five touchdowns and half against the garbage opponent and then if you it's hard to extrapolate that with confidence after one week to how that that kind of performance is going to hold up against an elite team so off of that like with the Heisman in particular um there is a lot of momentum behind cam Ward who to be fair did play um a real opponent um at least relative to what's going to be coming up for him next but like overreacting to what Jackson Darth did who may well be in the conversation by the end um but it's one week and it's difficult to read too much into it the guy in that market I'm most interested in is um Drew all who was 25 to1 he was 45 to1 going into last week if Penn State win the Big 10 and they're like I think they're like plus 450 to do so and all who has you know last season had a stellar touchdown interception ratio he's not going to have like the video game kind of Jaden Daniels type numbers but um he'd be right in the mix if they won the Big 10 and and he kind of keeps that TD in ratio crisp um but any thoughts for you on the Heisman front no I I love that shout because as you look across the Big 10 you know what you don't see Jay offense yeah there's no good offenses uh and if Penn State ultimately can produce an SEC type of quality offensively then uh expecting them to you know be able to get a highin candidate at least uh you know to the ceremony if not the winner is I think realistic so uh that's a great shout and uh honestly like if you watch him play college football the guy is a monster he is like just physically imposing and uh I have yet to run across a broadcaster that can help themselves from comparing him to Josh on yeah yeah for sure um there is something about cam Ward though which is pretty special uh and I think just that always particularly now where like Mahomes has obviously become the Pinnacle for quarterbacks and anyone who has that kind of momes Gene for extending plays and the way that Caleb Williams does as well I think that just kind of resonates to a certain uh outlier level uh and I think that you know what cam Ward was doing that is the type of stuff that is going to to resonate the most but let's see still got a long way to go um in good position to win the ACC but still going to do that and still got to put up he's going to have to put up the video game numbers that and go that route as opposed to you know the ultimate um touchdown interception ratio he's already got one pick on the board um but he could definitely do it via the Daniels method all right before we get to Ravens Chiefs week one is here and the season begins with NFL kickoff on Thursday September 5th as the Ravens face the Chiefs on NBC and peacock the following night it's Packers V Eagles in Brazil exclusively on peacock all right first game of the season Drew Ravens Chiefs Chiefs are three-point favorites it believe it opened a little bit lower than this then got up a little bit higher than this and now is settled at three which I think seems reasonable 46 a half is the total uh Thursday the opener what say you on this one is three too many or just right uh three is a little short but not short enough to make a bet on uh if you have been listening to us opine about this game for all of the preseason I think hopefully you're with me holding a two and a half um I think ultimately the fact that this was under a three was noteworthy for a couple reasons and um you know I think the Chiefs really are not necessarily being priced um to their true Talent as we head into the season there's a little bit of a discount on them which I know sounds absurd because like how could there ever be a discount on a Ms Le Chiefs team but um you know this team was uh Sixpoint favorites against the Lions uh heading into last year's uh season opener on ban Banner Knight and that team had way more questions there was the extended hold out for Chris Jones there was the hyper extended knee and Bone Bru for um you know Travis Kelce those are the second and third most important players for this Chief team and these these guys are now fully healthy and are going to be very very you know impactful for uh this opening game against the Ravens meanwhile the Ravens have all of the questions heading into this contest um I absolutely am concerned about the quality of the offensive line as you have a huge turnover uh at that positional group and uh I'll turnover at as far as coaching with the uh the dep of uh their offensive line coach this preseason so um a a lot about the Ravens that uh I think is not being currently digested by market you have um you know just in general huge uh step back in terms of how they're going to be able to generate a pass rush uh they have not solved any of the questions circling around their skill position grp group as you have um you know Mark Andrews coming off of the uh the car accident you have say flowers as your wide receiver one this is not a scary group that I think is going to be able to keep up with the Chiefs if the Chiefs are running on all cylinders and I guess the other kind of key thing is the Chiefs tend to take the first portion of the regular season and maybe really a lot of the regular season as uh you know preseason H and kind of tend to focus and bring their best for the postseason um however it is noteworthy that they played a lot of their starters in this preseason and hitting the ground running and the purpose by which they seem to be outwardly communicating to all of us that they want to have uh a less stressful and a cleaner uh Offensive start to their season this year I think is worth paying attention to these sort of things matter and I think uh the Chiefs having a relatively clean win against the Ravens team that has all of the questions on their side of the docket uh is my expectation so I laid the point with the Chiefs I don't hate laying three at a really discounted price um and I think ultimately the fair should be just a little bit outside of three as far as the total goes 46 and a half is too high by my numbers um not capturing any key if I play an under on this one so I'm gonna pass but uh Chiefs for me on Thursday night okay yeah look if I was F the back ofad would be Kansas City I think that uh the question marks with Baltimore there's a lot of just kind of if you want to believe in Baltimore there has to be a lot of institutional trust that that organization which just kind of has produced offensive lineman and has salvaged offensive line situations is going to do it again because on paper like 60% of the offensive line is very uncertain also like they don't have Edge rushers uh and they didn't really have Edge rushers last year but they had jevi and Clowney who had a really good season and they relied on Mike McDonald's you simulated pressures to create a pass rush and a lot of ways because you know they don't have a Mah Parsons miles Garrett TJ wat Etc at Edge so they had to do it with somewhat smoking mirrors and now it's not like they're going to forget everything that um was in the Mike McDonald system but with him gone that's a bit of a concern um it's just it's just weird that they didn't add anything at wide receiver they're just going to roll back like the Rashad baitman Nelson agore at 23 um kind of situation and I think with the Chiefs I think and it's a little bit Frau with Peril but I think for a team that now has won three Super Bowls went to a fourth Super Bowl went to another AFC title game being to the AFC title game every season of mahomes's career um and like it just depends on projecting like how seriously are they going to take a regular season I think after last year which even though they won the Super Bowl last year was such a kind of painful frustrating SLO all season on offense where it felt like Mahomes kind of just didn't like go the Rope because he was still playing at an amazing level but think about the temper tantrum that he threw after the Bills game or just how putrid the offense looked on Christmas uh at home to the Raiders losing that getting embarrassed I think that now that now that he has real proper weapons and toys and we're not going to see Hollywood brown but we will see Xavier worthy there I think that Kingsley Su matire at left tackle who's looked who looked really good in preseason he may even be an upgrade on what they had there last year uh I just think that with Rasheed rice heading into year two kind of turned the corner in the uh last third of last season I think that Kelsey is going to be better than he was last year just because he was constantly banged up last year and even if he is on a reduced count I just think this offense is going to be the best offense in the league I think it's going to be the type of season where it's week 10 and Mahomes is already like minus 125 to win MVP I think that they're just going to go scorched Earth on offense we'll see on defense like lerus Sneed going that kind of that ripple effect to the rest of the defense will be interesting a lot more on Trent mcduffy's plate even though you know he's been awesome as a number two now he has to really Step Up um but still like it's spags they still have a ton of talent think this is the best team in the league I think that Mahomes is a bad for MVP if I had to make one Super Bowl bet it would probably be just Kansas City at plus 600 uh and I think that it probably starts on Thursday night yeah that's all fair um what else do they have left now to prove with three Super Bowls and three you know just just uh clear dominant uh Seasons other than chasing immortality and this is a winning opportunity for them against the Ravens team that at full strength last year was clearly favored uh in that AFC title game and granted it was in Baltimore but the line told you that the Ravens were a better team and the way they matched up then was better than the way they match up now um and uh not exactly scared of this ra Ravens rushing attack against the weakness of the chief's uh defense in terms of Run Stop uh and uh not exactly scared of the Chiefs secondary up against this Ravens team that only has one white out who's borderline wide receiver one so um I think ultimately the Chiefs get a comfortable win here if they can beat the uh the Bengals with extra rest uh week two uh I think we really are looking at Deep uh a Deep Run for this Chiefs team potentially chasing some immortality yep and just going back to what I was saying earlier about projecting incentives and motivation the regular season like for the NFL that is a lot less relevant than it is for the NBA for example where um there's just like it's simple like there's 17 games instead of 82 and if you lose a game it really hurts your chances of winning the Super Bowl in terms of seating and the fact that there's only one bite get whereas if I think that yeah like the Nuggets this year they might just Coast a bit because they'll prioritize health and yic has nothing to prove in the regular season and they might just be content being a 50 and 32 three or four seed doesn't really work like that with football and the Chiefs like I don't think they're really just going to Coast particularly after they had so many Growing Pains last year on offense like I think they're going to want to really rev it up and I think Mahomes is just going to want to kind of for lack of a better phrasing just kind of have fun again on offense and actually throw the ball deep and have guys catch the ball um which was sorely lacking last season so yeah I uh I think that the Chiefs I think they are kind of tier one by themselves um of all teams when you factor in the just the age concerns about um the 49ers and just the contractual stuff and the defense didn't look great last year and all that I think the Chiefs are the clear stand our team uh and I think they will show us all that on Thursday night all right fantasy football season just got $1 million better create or join a private Yahoo fantasy league and enter the $1 million NBC sweep Stakes plus earn extra entries to win when players on your fantasy roster score a touchdown during an opening weekend game on NBC or peacock download the redesigned Yahoo fantasy app or go to nbcsports.com fantasy million to learn more as you all know by now we've teamed up with B MGM this season we'll be using bmgm lines to make all our picks and we'll have special offers for our listeners each week if 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bet Edge and get your $1,500 first bet offer today okay sweating out this Phillies Braves game Drew it's 22 in the ninth I don't know why the Braves keep hanging around in these games they've got like three good players left and just every game comes down to the ninth and they t to win but anyway need it for my beloved Mets uh let's go to Packers Eagles uh the Eagles Drew are three point favorites the total is 48 and a half this line has moved a lot uh it opened it was in the one one and a half range for a time and then recently has really steamed in the Eagles Direction there been a lot of steam just in general on the Eagles in terms of their like make the playoff price the division where they opened at plus money and now some spots like minus 170 there's a lot of hype behind the Eagles and I think that a lot of it is driven by um what they showed in pre-season in terms of their creativity with Kell Moore and using a lot more motion and all of that kind of stuff um do you think this line has gone too far for the Eagles to be a three-point favorite on a neutral field no I think three is right I'm I'm in uh I I played played the Eagles at uh two two and a half I I'm very much uh um you know kind of part of the you know the overall Market Buy on this Eagles team um they're I don't think that what you're noting of their preseason is uh hugely impactful as far as why people believe in this team uh I think the reasons people believe in this team are pretty clearly twofold one um the roster is the best if not the best number one top three uh in football from one to 53 um they really just don't have many holes the Investments they made in the off season to try to shore up the defensive side of the ball particularly the um you know coverage unit is uh is likely to work they have good players there now uh and in general the scheme shift uh you know may take we couple weeks till it gets up to full speed but um both offensive and defensive scheme now you know should be hugely improved from what we saw towards the end of last year when they were collapsing and I think um you know just the some of the parts in terms of a roster makes this team look uh look very very formidable um and then you marry that with how weak their schedule is and seeing the Eagles as you know your top team you know your one seed in the NFC is not hard um if you are rating them anywhere close to the top of the NFC teams in terms of power rating so um yeah I think ultimately that's it's mostly just kind of marrying the quality of the roster with how weak the schedule is uh that is kind of driving a lot of this enthusiasm now I will say if there is one team in the NFL that I think has the highest likelihood of not equaling the sum of the parts it's probably Philadelphia and uh I'm not necessarily a long-term Byron Kell Mo I'm not really expecting Vic vanio to um you know turn this defense around on a dime um I like them again you know their matchups in every way against uh Green Bay but I still have huge huge questions about uh you know Philadelphia being anywhere close to the class of the NFC to where I wouldn't want to take them on uh particularly in the uh you know in the playoffs so um you know ultimately I'm I'm not into Eagles NFC title I'm not into Eagles Super Bowl I think uh happy to be against them in both of those markets but in this particular matchup at full strength against a Packers team that has had uh kind of a sloppy preseason uh I think is is perfectly reasonable and um you know the Packers were a second half team last year that uh you know caught fire at the right time they were playing their best football at the time you want to be playing it and they probably should have beaten the ners and gone to the NFC title game um but uh it still is a very young team it still is a defense that has huge huge problems and questions and uh I don't know that going up against this Eagles team is a very uh delightful way for them to start their campaign and uh just in general I think uh the Eagles are the right side here but you know I mean there's better bets on the board than playing the three now so if you don't already have an eagles uh you know under the three in pocket I would probably stay away yep that's reasonable I think with the Eagles the questions and there are questions around the margins where like Devin white I think he's kind of proven that he's just not that great um and I don't know why they really went after him but it seems like he's going to be a key part of that linebacking call like they're heavily reliant on guys at corner like Quon Mitchell who we' never seen him though we think that he's going to be good Isaiah Rogers who hasn't played in a year obviously Kelsey gone at Center and what does the offense look like with Jaylen Herz being a bit more in command of things and I think that really it's strange because like this team has been for the most part the principal characters have been the same for the past two years uh and it should be a fairly known commodity but just with How Bizarre last season was with the specific flaws that he showed um I think this team is a bit more High variance than they normally would when you just look at the roster continuity and I think that it really it largely boils down to Herz like if Herz is going to play at the level that he did um pretty much all throughout 2022 and for large stretches of 2023 then this should be like a 12 and five win team and a top two seed if he is the guy who seemed like he just had no answer whatsoever for the Blitz and whether that's kind of uh an indictment on him or whether it was an indictment on the scheme which seemed very lacking last season I we'll probably find out um this season but I mean it's also like to your point like Kell Moore it's not like this is Ben Johnson coming in to fix the Eagles right it's like Kell Mo kind of seen the Kell Moore experience was what was what the Eagles had before just so unbelievable bad that just getting to a baseline of confidence is that going to lift them maybe I don't know but um yeah I'm largely with you I think that they have an incredibly High floor I'm not sure what the ceiling is um with the questions in the secondary and the kind of questions about Herz and also like was Herz Herz took some hits last year where it felt like the way he's limping on his knee that his season was just going to be over and he just kept on going out there it's hard to judge because he's never been like the fast this guy even though we think of him as a running quarterback like he's very much like power power back not like like shiftiness and so it's kind of hard to judge like how exactly hurt is your knee um but yeah overall it adds up to something that feels just a little bit off and a little bit underwhelming but should have a fairly High floor just because the overall Talent on the roster yeah huge turnover in leadership in that locker room no no Kelsey no Cox like that there's if somebody doesn't step into that void and really be the vocal leader of this team when going gets tough this could all fall apart um but I personally look at and you you you said it like I would hang a lot of the lack of success for particularly the Eagles offense last year um on injury swirling around herts in particular and uh If he if he has a healthy season then my expectations are more of 2022 less of what we saw in November December 2023 but that's said um you know this schedule is soft as can be to start it has some interesting wrinkles and challenges in the middle and then it is soft soft soft down the stretch so uh I think we are going to get our chance to see them tested in the months of uh you know late October November uh and if they ultimately stabilize win those you know and win some of those games and the leadership emerges then this is a team that is you know forced to be reckoned with if it doesn't go well though these guys quitting on Nick serani and him getting fired and this all kind of falling apart at the seams and not equaling the sum of the parts is 100% in the reality in terms of possible outcomes yeah uh we haven't really mentioned the Green Bay Packers uh who are the other team in this game I think that they we talk about the variance of the Eagles like the Packers there are worlds where the Packers are like a 14 and three Juggernaut one seed and then I think there are worlds where you know hafley comes in and the defense just isn't that great and Jordan love has his herob ball moments go wrong and none of the kind of four wide receivers take a leap and Christian Watson's dealing with his hamstring again um and the young offensive line doesn't take a step forward and this is like a you know an eight and N team that misses the playoffs huge range of outcomes think that the variance with them comes with just how real was Jordan love last season I think probably pretty real in that he finished the season fifth in EPA per play and the first half of the year didn't really seem to know what he was doing and still was able to close that well uh they completely eviscerated the Cowboys and then I think accorded themselves well against the ners despite the second half um semi meltdown but what do you think of this team's defense in particular uh if we think that the offense is a little bit more of a a well-known commodity with leur and love and they have like they just have so many it's tough to call them Dart throws because we've seen seen Wix Watson dos re all before but the thought is is that like they can't they're not all going to fail um and that they should have enough there the o line was solid last year I think the offense has a reasonably High floor it's just whether love can take a MVP type step by the way there are some books where Jordan love is a second favorite to win MVP um which is quite a world um that we're living in and he's got the upside to win it I don't think I'd put him as the second favorite but um he is on the short list but what do you think of the defense where new defensive coordinator do you think that the previous regime was just so bad that just anyone coming in kind of creates the upside where this could be an average to above average unit I have a tough time uh evaluating the quality of the players on this defense they've invested a lot of draft capital and not gotten the returns expected um and you can you can either hang that around the neck of the previous regime in terms of not developing that talent and not using them appropriately or you can say that their evaluations were no good and they took these guys too early and they're just not a very talented unit I lean L ladder right now I think there are particularly with this coverage unit huge question marks um and uh the pass rush looks to me to be uh a little bit lukewarm um I think ran Gary certainly does stand out if he has a healthy year but uh not to the degree that he's going to be winning you matchups against Elite offens lines like the Eagles have this week so um I think the the defense to me grades as a unit overall that's going to look good against the weaker offenses that they face particularly the weaker offensive lines they face um but uh I if they finish above 16 and dvo will be suppressed okay yeah I think that is that is fair I think a lot of it comes down to just like rashan Gary last year was good but he wasn't uh the world be that it looked like he was on track to be before he tore his ACL a couple of years ago and if he now I mean he's still very young he's uh well he's not super he's 26 years old so relatively young and a year removed off the ACL their safety situation was a mess last year they bring in Xavier mckin um to Shore that up they kind of J Alexander didn't play that much last year um and just with more Health from him like there are worlds where and just like we don't know anything about hafley really and his what his defense is going to look like like there there are the bones of a defense here like if the Packers finished as the number 10 defense I don't think it would shock the world just that's not the likeliest outcome but they do have youth they do have um guys in you know Kenny Clark and ran Gary and Jay Alexander who in theory can be a graders um I think there are worlds where they have like the number 10 11 defense and the top three offense and we're talking about this team um as the favorite to win the NFC at some point this year it's just probably have to see um a little bit more to be certain of that clearly um before we get out of here the total 48 and a half uh what do you think of that I don't have a ton of uh understanding of the conditions at the field and um you know where was a tiny little bit of elevation um and uh for those reasons I stayed away um but uh my fair would have been 49 okay fair yeah it uh looks like it will be a shootout exclusive to Peacock all right we are done for now don't forget to check out nbcsports.com for more information to help you with your wages thanks for those watching on the NBC Sports YouTube channel and if you're listening to us in podcast form don't forget to rate and subscribe also reminded to find all your favorite NBC Sports shows on Amazon music just head to amazon.com MBC sports for myself and Drew we will see you later this week