Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the importance of Harris' running mate decision

amna: The 2024 race for the white house has been upended in the last few weeks, even as we wait for the next big decision, the announcement of Kamala Harris's running mate. For a look at the race, we turn to our politics Monday team. That's Amy Walter of the cook political report with Amy Walter, and Tamara Keith of NPR. Great to see you both. So, we know vice president Harris is expected to appear with her running mate tomorrow night. We don't yet know who that will be but we will know by then the top contenders are reportedly these three men. Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, Minnesota governor Tim Walz, and Arizona governor mark Kelly. That announcement will come in this context would you take a look at the latest CBS news polling shows essentially a statistical tie nationally and in battleground states between vice president Harris and former president trump. So Amy, when you look at those numbers and who she is considering, could the vice presidential pick have an effect on the race? Amy: I think it is unlikely it does much. The vice president, we talk a lot about the vice presidential pick. It is an important moment, especially for a new candidate. I know she has been the vice president, but we have not seen her as a presidential nominee, so this will be her very first exec at of action. How does she make this decision I think becomes important. The second thing it allows her to do is to have another good week, if everything goes right, if the rollout goes well. This is the do no harm theory of the case with epic. -- With a pick. And that she is able to own another week of media coverage and that transitions directly into the DNC. So that would be three weeks of the Harris campaign being able to set the terms of the debate and the narrative. What she has to choose between of those three seems like Progressives are very much pushing for the governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz. The more Progressive, moderate wing of the democratic party is and you have to go with someone like Shapiro who will help to set the narrative for you. If the case the trump campaign is making is Kamala Harris is too liberal, getting someone who is not the choice of Progressives is a way to get the swing voters. Amna: Let's look at those three top contenders, let's put that graphic backup. When you look at these men, what would each of them bring to a potential Harris ticket? What does it show that she is prioritizing in her ticket? Amy: -- Tamara: She is prioritizing someone who would be a governing partner, who she has chemistry with. None of these are people who has long-standing relationships with. As Amy said and as I said last week, she is looking for someone who will do no harm, who will be safe, and in theory, will be someone who can go out and campaign and driving message. What we have seen over the last week is the virtual audition of all three of these men going out and doing cable hats. Tim Walz wins the cable audition because he has used the term "Weird" to describe J.D. Vance and Donald Trump and it has stuck. And now everyone is them weird. And they are responding saying I am not weird, you are weird. And people are giving Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, former congressman, credit for that. Amna: I want to return to the polls and what they tell us. Because the race is still tied even as the ticket has changed. You saw this surge in financial support for Harris after she moved to the top of the ticket. The campaign fundraising for July showed Harris raising over $300 million. Didn't necessarily see a similar surge in polling. Does that surprise you? Amy: Can I make an argument? Which is, in this day and age and are very calcified, polarized era, a surge in moving the race from one where trump was up by three to one where Harris is now up one point or tied. That's a four point shift into weeks and that is a big, big deal. That matters a lot. The race has shifted from one where trump was ahead and it was his race to lose, the one where, oh, this race is actually a tossup now. Where it is not is where we were in 2020 at this time where Biden was up, in the polling at least, by eight points or something, and he ended up winning by four. So this is much closer than it was in 2020, but a heck of a lot better than where we were. The other thing about the money that is important is that Democrats have had a money lead for a long time. They have spent it on Biden. And it did not do anything. Now Harris and her campaign have an opportunity in many ways to say the same things, although it is different. She gets to be sort of a change candidate that Biden was not. You can see what she talks about in her very first ad. Choose a prosecutor, trump is taking us backwards, we are never going back. And about what you want for M.V.P., the candidate who can deliver that message with her and sound credible will be really important. Amna: I want to ask about what we are hearing about the Harris campaign from the trump campaign they were campaigning in Georgia this past week and it feels like they were struggling to coalesce around a strategy. People like senator Lindsey graham are saying to focus on her record and Mr. Trump goes off script and goes racist. Tamara: Is that really off script? We will never know for sure. But the cycle of people saying oh trump, just watch your mouth and everything will be great. His supporters have said every day he has been on the political seat. I think they are really in the throwing everything against the wall phase and figuring out what sticks to Harris. They have tried San Francisco liberal. I assume they will try a lot more of that in the days and weeks to come. They have tried to say she was too tough of a prosecutor, not tough enough of a prosecutor. That she is a chameleon, that she does not know her racial identity, that she is a different person to different people. Trump has tried various things from crazy to low iq. A lot of it is shrouded in familiar tropes for female candidates and for candidates of color in this country. What sticks? Who knows. But they are trying different messages. He spent a big part of his rally Saturday complaining about the crowd size complaining he was not allowed to have as many people into the arena, the same arena where she had an event days earlier. Complaining about the crowd size and then complaining that she had a rapper. So it was not representative, they were there for the rapper. So he is really trying everything. Eventually they will coalesce around something. Amna: I have to ask you about the impact of a third-party candidate right now. Rfk junior was pulling in double digits once. Right now he is polling at 2% and there has been a series of weird headlines, the only way to put it. The brain worm, the dead there in central park. Is there still an impact he could have on this election? Amy: In these battleground states, absolutely he could siphon votes away. His drop is also coinciding with Harris's rise. I think there were a bunch of people sitting in the campaign of rsg junior who were not never trump voters but who were interested in basically sending a message saying I am not going to vote for trump and I am not happy about Biden. And let's be clear, beside the headlines, rfk junior has not done anything he has not done any campaigning. So it is not that surprising to see this drop. Amna: Always great to see you both. Thank you. Tamara: You are welcome. ♪♪