Penn State's defense will pitch the shutout... Penn State vs. Bowling Green preview & predictions

you can expect a shut out from this Penn State Defense you are locked on nit Lions your daily podcast on the Penn State nit Lions part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day let's make some predictions for Penn State versus Bowling Green now we need to absolutely see this one thing from Penn State to know that the team is trending in the right direction and in the final segment we'll get the inside look at Bowling Green this is locked on nney lions I'm your host Zach Seiko and thanks so much for making us your first listen and watch every single day we are free and available wherever you get your podcasts including YouTube and Today's Show is brought to you by FanDuel now through September 22nd all FanDuel customers can bet just $5 and you'll get a 3-week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV just visit fanduel.com to get started I'd really appreciate it if you left a like on this episode more importantly be a part of the discussion I want to know your final score prediction any sta predictions you got for Penn State versus Bowling Green down in the comments I'm going to give you mine to open up the show and some analysis to back up my prediction so FanDuel says that this game is a minus 34 and a half point spread of course in favorite in favor of Penn State there's no money line on this game so they fully anticipate that Penn State is going to win as a 34 and a half Point favorite as they should uh with the total set at 482 now my prediction is obviously Penn State of course wins here but because of the improvements we just talked about on defense I'm really expecting a shut out here from Penn State against Bowling Green and because of that I think Penn State wins this game 42 to nothing so Penn State covers but I expect the total to stay under that 48 a half mark of course I'm going to explain why here Penn State is going to get pressure defensively saw that against West Virginia that they were able to shut down the run and get after Garrick green a little bit and and I also expect Penn State to force some more takeaways in this game I think at least three turnovers is reasonable for the nney lion defense and and how this is going to happen Penn State's going to focus on taking away the run you have to take away terion Stewart he is the all-around running back he was really good for Bowling Green a season ago and if you take away the round game first kind of similar to West Virginia Bowling Green just is not built to battle back from a deficit so if you force Bowling Green into obvious passing situations and take away the other main part of the offense and that is Harold Fannon Jr the tight end super athletic I think he has NFL prospects down the road but basically you limit terion Stewart you limit Harold fan and Jr you should have a fine day if you're Penn State so aside from the from from those two the offense isn't really all that dynamic in this case Conor baslac is the quarterback and that name might sound familiar to people because he used to quarterback Indiana and his head coach was Tom Allen so Tom Allen is going to face his former quarterback in this case since baslac transferred away from Indiana and and ultimately ended up at Bowling Green he's an experienced quarterback he's a veteran but Bowling Green just does not have enough weapons to offset Penn State's playing to to cause pressure take away the ground game and you you might want to double Harold Fannon Jr in this case I don't think you have to but at time at points and times just to you might want to bracket him the offensive line is okay and that's and that's based on a Mac level of competition so remember Bowling Green is a Mac team coming into this and a very good Mac team but against a power four Penn State College football playoff caliber team that is starting to prove to be a little bit better than the preseason expectations there's there's different levels to this right so Penn State's defense should not have any issues and I am fully anticipating a shut out here against Bowling Green 42 to nothing is my final score now offensively here's how it's going to work for Penn State Penn State's going to want to shorten this game just as much as Bowling Green does Bowling Green if they think that they have a legitimate chance to win this game that's how they have to do it they have to shorten the game they kind of have to hope that the scores just just going to stay relatively close because again they can't come back from a two touchdown three touchdown deficit so easier said than done but that's bowling Green's game plan is that they are going to try to shorten this game and if I'm Penn State I'm kind of doing the same thing too try to run the football keeps keep things simple because this is a long season avoid injuries right avoid injuries as best as possible don't show the whole Playbook but fine-tune some things and I think we kind of had that against West Virginia too Penn State showed a little bit of everything but not everything not the not the the secret plans the blueprint for that Gauntlet of a schedule when it gets to USC Wisconsin Ohio State and Washington so similar case here your objective is to get a win get a convincing win build some confidence some more confidence some more momentum and and above all else try to avoid injuries as best as possible this is a a long season now with the 12 team playoff so what Penn State will do is make a push to go quick and try to build that two three touchdown lead and then just progressively let off the gas like they did against West Virginia the exact same game plan applies here because West Virginia as an offense is not built to come from behind neither is Bowling Greens Bowling Greens offense is just not designed that way so if Penn State is up 21 to nothing at half hypothetically that's essentially ball game in this case Bowling Green is a run first defensive minded team and and I respect that I respect that they will not light up their scoreboard routinely let alone against the nitty Lions this weekend so they're pretty solid defensively in their own right they have 30 plus seniors like this is a competitive disciplined Bowling Green Team and a coach that has the team buying in he's into his left lers is into his fifth season with Bowling Green since 2019 this is a really good group that should contend for the M conference Penn State is just that much better in this case and remember a season ago different team but in 2023 bowling green went into Ann Arbor and picked off JJ McCarthy three times so this defense can be pretty competitive if you're not careful as far as my stat predictions go Drew Aller I don't think needs to have that he doesn't need to light up the box score in this case so I'm anticipating 175 passing yards around May somewhere between 175 and 200 a couple passing touchdowns no turnovers I don't think he'll throw an interception of course and some ring yards I think he still gets at least 25 there's going to be an initiative to use the option allow him to scramble from time to time but not too much here because you don't need it against Bowling Green vote for Bula I think he gets a rushing touchdown maybe even two depending on when he enters the game as the regular quarterback I think we will see more Bo prula in the Wildcat package to quarterback system in this case this is a day for the ground game to get going for Penn State because it should Bowling Green runs a 335 base defense that's three defensive linemen three linebackers and five defensive backs that is primed for a physical ground game to just eat them alive Nicholas Singleton and KRON Allen should absolutely have a field day should have a lot of fun against Bowling Green I also like a first career Penn State TouchDown for Julian Fleming I think he gets his first touchdown as a Penn State nitty lion here those are my offensive stat predictions for defense I have Penn State getting a total of five sacks against Conor lack in the Bowling Green offense and I think two of them will come from Abdul Carter a weak game from Abdul Carter in week one prime bounceback opportunity here against an offensive line that's just okay for Mac level competition and with my three turnovers that I talked about at the top of the segment zachie Wheatley I think is getting an interception here I think he's just going to be able to sit back in zone read baslac and just and eventually get that interception to open up the season for him that makes a lot of sense here it is supposed to be rain we talk about the weather here in a second it is supposed to be rainy a little bit on Saturday so I have two fumble recoveries factored in that could be anybody maybe there's a defensive touchdown the likelihood of it is better but I can't guarantee it just don't be surprised if it does happen in Penn State's case now here's the general info this game kicks off at noon in Beaver Stadium it's going to be televised on the Big 10 Network Penn State is 2 and0 in the series and the last time they met was in 1998 where Penn State won 48-3 and then the weather there is some rain expected during this game acuweather actually recommends that any fans in attendance bring a rain jacket for the game aside from that 66° with wind gusts up to 12 mph it's not a perfect day to throw the football around the yard which is tempering my expectations for Drew Aller and why I think Singleton and Allen could have a big game now let's talk about what to watch for from Penn State if Penn State's going to continue to Trend in the right direction there is one thing that this team needs to absolutely accomplish going into the game against Bowling Green we're going to discuss that next coming up after the break and today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel you've heard us talk a lot about FanDuel America's number one sports book well we have something a little bit different for you and now through September 22nd all FanDuel customers can bet just $5 that's all it takes five doll and you'll get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV how cool is that then with a YouTube TV base plan you'll be able to watch every regular season Sunday afternoon out of Market game and all you need is a Google account and a current form of payment and you can cancel in any time so there's no obligation just visit fanduel.com to download America's number one Sportsbook and if you look over at fanduel.com I started off the show talking about the lines for Penn State versus Bowling Green so if you look at FanDuel Penn State is a 342 Point favorite of five touchdown favorite in that game with the total set at 482 there is no money line on this game but if you like those lines you can bet them over at fanduel.com again that's FanDuel America's number one sports book and today's episode is also brought to you by team ticker team ticker is the one-of aind sports sign for college sports fans that sign back there to my left is a team ticker sign if you're watching this episode team ticker is a foot and a half by 2ot wall sign featuring The Nitty lion logo that has a cool retr looking LED display the display is updated daily with fresh content such as the countdown to next game schedules standing stats news and so much more it is super fun and a great way to stay connected with Penn State Sports whether it's football men's and women's basketball baseball soccer or softball team ticker has got you covered and never miss a game as the high tech retro display provides a countdown to the next big game as well as daily updates as the latest team news stats schedules standings and much more will scroll across the screen team ticker is the ultimate addition to your nitty lion sports collection and once you hang it on the wall it's going to be the talk of all your fellow Penn State fans if you're looking for that one eye-catching item to Showcase your team Pride or a gift for that special nitty Lions fan go to Team tier.com and pick up your team ticker today team ticker is a one-of aind sports sign go to Team tier.com use promo code locked on and you'll receive $50 off your team ticker purchase that's team tier.com with promo code locked on for $50 off your team ticker purchase if Penn State's going to continue to Trend in the right direction as a true college football playoff Contender and maybe even transcend those expectations they have to do this one thing I want to see an improved Run game from Penn State in addition to some other things I have in the second segment but Above All Else an improved Run game and that ability to consist instantly sustain drives because the tape against W Virginia was not good aside from a couple Breakaway Nicholas Singleton runs that the run the the Run offense was not good let's look at KRON Allen so Nicholas Singleton had a great day over 100 yards the yards per carry was phenomenal but KRON Allen 10 carries 20 yards that's unacceptable cam Wallace came in as a third running back nine carries 24 yards not impressive either so the PFF grades backed this up to the grades were not good when it comes to Drew Shelton Sal Wormley Nick Dawkins three of your starting offensive lineman for Penn State all below average that's not going to cut it and then vanga Yuan Cooper cousins Anthony Dono Nolan R you played a significant amount of time barely average so you have four rotation so you have four linemen that you know rotated infrequently in one starter that barely average from the analytics and then Shelton warmly Dawkins who were below average overall this is not a promising performance against a West Virginia front 7 that isn't isn't good they're not good and I said that in all of my previews leading up through this so you have to be able to sustain drives and give your defense a break consistently and I just talked about this Penn State is getting better at it but that's why you need to be able to see it against Bowling Green you should not have issues with a Mac team being able to push the line of scrimmage create openings for either running back Singleton's one thing because he's one cut and go or honestly just get the football and go he doesn't even need to make that one football move but KRON Allen is patient needs to have time and that's why you saw a different in difference in statistics and I think Singleton's vision is frankly getting better so Allen probably just had an off day against West Virginia but the Run blocking needs to be significantly better and if you don't have that ideal performance against Bowling Green then that's when it becomes a problem that's when it becomes a problem so Penn State needs to be able to show off the Run blocking ability the cohesion between the starting five of the offensive linemen some rotational players as well and just be able to stay in drives close out the game build that 21 28-point lead roughly a three or four touchdown lead against Bowling Green and then just run out the clock let Singleton Allen cam Wallis right I want to see cam Wallace pad the stat shate a little bit Bo prula as well Drew Allard should not be playing a full four quarters in this game he will not but I don't want that to be the case period other things that I'm expecting from Penn State are just things to watch for uh as a Penn State fan I I want to see some of the Freshman on offense get playing time and when you play a Mac level team or anybody that is outside of the power four you should anticipate that some of the backups especially freshman whether they're red shirting or not are going to get in the game this is a invaluable experience early in the season so it's important to build that lead early so you can allow guys like tyer Denmark Quinton Martin Luke Reynolds getting the game wide receiver running back tight end Denmark and Reynolds are closer to getting legitimate playing time legitimate reps than people think and I know Luke Reynolds saw a decent amount of playing time in the end he really didn't I think he saw an overall 12 snaps and he was mostly blocking uh in that West Virginia game but I want to see Reynolds go out for more passes catch a pass catch a touchdown right uh tyer Denmark same thing especially when the wide receivers don't Inspire enough confidence right now I want to be careful with my words I think the wide receivers are better compared to a season ago and we already saw that from Trey Wallace against West Virginia but it's just Wallace and it's just Amari Evans Fleming and Liam Clifford were held without a catch Kaden Saunders is banged up the sooner you can get tyer Denmark onto the field and developing rapid rid L above what the expectations were that just gives you some added Insurance later in the season around week eight week n down the stretch when you might need somebody like TA or Denmark to step up when you least expect it so not now and that's in the case where all three of them for Quint Martin it's a little different because I think they do intend to red shirt him uh you don't need him at this point in time but get him experience and James Franklin said that him and Cory Smith are kind of on the same timeline you'll have Martin one one sequence and Smith another sequence another game I should say because you don't want to you you essentially have one running back with eight games of Eligibility to preserve that red shirt if that makes sense Franklin actually explained that a little bit but they don't intend to overutilize Martin and Smith they're actually going to be split so that they can both preserve their red shirts so not now this is certainly planning for the future in the case of Denmark and Reynolds but watch out for the second half of the Season depending on depth and personal development Luke Reynolds and tyer Denmar could absolutely factor in to the offense names to watch on defense for Penn State I I don't need to see anything from the veteran backup Smith vilbert Aman vanover Tyler ellon and and Alonzo Ford or anybody like that a Caleb artist uh down the depth chart I don't need to see anything from them right they've kind of already proven to me what they are capable of and James Franklin has had High Praise from Smith vver and Aman vanover so even though they are backups I I don't need to see a whole lot from them we know what they can do and what they are talented at what I am watching for on defense is linebacker here because I have my question marks about the depth chart I see Superstar potential in Tony Roos Kobe King is better from a season ago Dom Duca tomb time captain of course is back and better from a season ago after that there's Tyler Elon and then what okay we've heard some promise about Tamir Robinson I want to see more of Tamir Robinson in this game what can he do with a full half a play maybe even more than that and then the Freshman do we see Anthony specka do we see K jacksson there has been a lot of rave reviews of Anthony specka saying that that is going to be a linebacker of the future at Penn State so maybe they could factor into some more playing time without again burning the red shirt being able to preserve that see I I also want to see more out of the secondary from the backup quarterbacks Elliot Washington capitalized on that performance with the inter ction late in the game against West Virginia Zion Tracy as well players that have kind of the same thing fellow teammates assistant coaches have said hey these are the names to watch for the future Elliot Washington and Zion Tracy can absolutely build off of that and have a good game against and they're already factoring into playing time but I want to see more from them you know play as many snaps as they can I see some Lamont payt at safety right he's from the same class as well and he's kind of that next in line same with dejan Lane the true freshman and alongside Cooper cousins is anticipated to burn that red shirt they have the green light so Lane and pay didn't mean to I didn't intentionally mean to rhyme it there but I think it works Lane and pay uh can show us a lot at that safety spot and we'll see how far Penn State goes down the depth chart at defensive line I don't know if we'll see guys like a TA Cunningham a Liam Andrews uh a Malachi Williams at defensive end because they need more time to develop and build that College frame maybe we do see them but I'm not fully anticipating it here they need that full year of development to to get right for the college game their their time is next year because Penn State is going to graduate a lot of players at defensive end and at defensive tackle so they need to be ready so maybe this is an opportunity for them but this early in the season I'm not entirely sure how about Bowling Green I got finished complimenting them and saying hey this is a a physical team this is a defensive minded team a disciplined team everybody's buying into coach leer over in Bowling Green Let's talk about what to expect from the Falcons a little more in depth to finish up the show and today's episode is brought to you by LinkedIn jobs when you're hiring for your small business you want to find quality professionals that are right for the role that's why you have to check out LinkedIn jobs LinkedIn jobs has the tools to help you find the right Professionals for your team faster and for free LinkedIn isn't just a job board LinkedIn helps you hire professionals that you cannot find anywhere else even those who aren't actively searching for a new job but they might be open to the perfect role in a given month over 70% of those LinkedIn users don't visit other leading job sites so if you're not looking on LinkedIn you're looking in the wrong place on LinkedIn 86% of small businesses get a qualified candidate within 24 hours so hire professionals like a professional on LinkedIn and Linkedin understands that small businesses are wearing tons and tons of hats and might not have the time to necessarily devote to hiring and that's why LinkedIn is constantly finding ways to make the process easier and intuitive post your job for free today at linkedin.com lockon col again that is linkedin.com lockon col to post your job for free terms and conditions apply now let's actually talk about the Bowling Green Falcons themselves I've already mentioned they are a Mac team but they are contending for a conference title this season 1 and0 to start after beating forom 41-17 a forum's in FCS School FCS school but uh that's still a nice Victory to start the season for the Falcons the head coach is Scott leer since 2019 this is his Fifth Season former Michigan quarterback in the n in the mid1 1990s but he has this program trending in the right direction if I'm being honest uh progressively getting better over the course of his 5 years last year 7- six overall 5-3 in conference and they lost a close one in the quick lanane bowl to Minnesota so I want to remind everybody this is a team that is competitive in the Mac but when it comes to Big 10 Conference football you know Big 10 conference and then the college football playoff contending Penn State nitty Lions it's going to be different Bowling Green last week ran for 305 yards actually averaged over nine yards per carry in that game against forom this is a spread offense in its core with a a 335 defense and a 425 hybrid defense when they shift to a third down pass Rushing look so what am I expecting from Bowling Green any shot of the Falcons trying to play spoiler or remaining competitive is only going to happen if they shorten the game so that means running the football being consistent methodical on offense easier said than done but that is what they are going to try to do because if you are Bowling Green you do not want to get into a shootout with Andy codal Nikki State offense right now Bowling Green is veteran they're disciplined I know I've mentioned this stuff but I feel like it's important to rehash again if you made it this far in the episode they have over 30 seniors this is a group that is bought in they are well behind coach leeler and he said that when asked about this team going into the 2024 season he has said that that this team has bought in and they they just understand the game of college football this is this is a talented team overall Connor baslac is the starting quarterback he was previously at Indiana and his head coach was Tom Allen and I think that bodess well for Penn State's defense Tom Allen knows the strengths and the weaknesses of baslac now granted that was a couple years ago different player different coach but still you worked with him on a day-to-day basis so I imagine that Allen probably knows what basel's biggest weaknesses are and he probably baslac probably has not fixed all of them uh in his own right so they'll be able to work work with that and probably capitalize that capitalize on that as well this is a run first defensive minded team 305 yards doesn't happen by accident I don't care if it's an FCS opponent or not they are dedicated to running the football and baslac you know manages the offense and tries to commit a limited amount of turnovers but this is a defensive-minded team Bing green is going to rely on the ground game throughout the season they will naturally naturally chew the clock and that's why I think this score stays under is that no they're not going to have any points from my 42 to nothing prediction but I think that Penn State and bll and green are just going to get into a quick paced game the game's just going to flow along there's a little bit of rain expected on Saturday last year three of the four highest graded players on this Bowling Green Team were running backs and and one of them was terion Stewart so he is back from that group in 2024 but just to add to my point that they like to run the football their best assets on offense are typically going to be uh Bowling Greens or as Bowling Green best assets are typically going to be the running backs there offensively now defensively all starters have three or more years of college experience whether that's to as young as a red shirt sophomore or the the red shirt covid senior but they have a respectable secondary and that plays in part to them running a 335 def defense Jordan okin defensive back for them best player analytically a season ago I think he has a future in the NFL he is extremely talented he was a first team preseason all Mac per Phil steel popular sports and college football magazine leading up to the season and he was a 2023 allconference second team player as well other names to know in that secondary that provide solid coverage Edward Rambo and jakori Benjamin and what I like about Benjamin is that he is not afraid to go and make the tackle they have two capable safeties in Darius lils and CJ Brown as well up front defensive tackle donrees Brown is that do everything guy in the middle he's the Run stuffer uh he can get after the quarterback but he simply at his base is going to eat up space and probably command some double teams throughout the game against Penn State this team has a decent pass rush you kind of give that up when you have a 335 defense now you can always bring the linebacker down as that that hybrid Edge Defender so he's he's back in coverage now he's up on the line of scrimmage you have that flexibility but the 335 doesn't command a strong at least Bowling Green 335 doesn't command a strong pass rush it's decent mostly effective on third down with some of the adjust adjustments that they make but Anthony Hawkins can help out with that he's another fellow defensive lineman and he gets pressure right up the middle so Penn State's interior of the offens of line could be busy Nick Dawkins vanga Yuan Sal Wormley are going to have to work together and pick out double teams because Hawkins and brown will not give them an easy day and then to round out the linebackers Joseph Sip and Demetrius Hardeman are the guys that anchor that group for the Falcons so that's the Bowling Green Falcons in a nutshell Penn State is going to win in my mind my final score prediction is 42 to nothing Penn State covers the spread the total goes under but I think in the scheme of things Penn State is going to really like that shut out in week two of the season and could potentially follow it up against Kent State the next week another Mac opponent a significantly weaker one as well that could be in the neighborhood of 60 70 points I'm looking I'm looking too far ahead we got Penn State and Bowling Green this Saturday kicking off at noon on Big 10 Network if you are not going to the game if you are of course safe travels and a safe time at Beaver Stadium that'll do it for this edition of lock on nney lines thanks so much for checking out this episode game day is fastly approaching and we'll have postgame interviews of course from James Franklin select players and a reaction to the result as well on the field of Beaver Stadium again let me know your thoughts in the comments section let me know your final score prediction players that you're looking forward to seeing on Saturday in this type of game where Penn State can maximize the backups getting valuable playing time I'd really appreciate it I'd really appreciate a like on this episode and if you're not already be coming everyday or subscribe to luon nney Lions on YouTube and wherever you get your podcast for the latest conversations around your favorite Penn State sports teams again thanks so much for making lock on nney lions your first listen and watch every single day for your second listen check out locked on college football previews reviews analysis talking about the news and everything in between Spencer mlin the host of the show is giving you everything college football truly every single day whether it's talking about nil or talking about the impact of the rosters from the 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