After their debate, who’s ahead: Trump or Harris? | The Bottom Line

hi I'm Steve Clemens and I have a question after the debate between Donald Trump and kamla Harris who do Americans trust to handle their economy immigration and the wars in Ukraine and Gaza let's get to the bottom line with only a few weeks to go before election day former president Donald Trump and current vice president kamla Harris clashed on just about everything in their first and most likely their last debate as candid for the next president of the United States Harris focused on abortion and women's rights in general and stressed the idea that a vote for Trump was a vote for the past while a vote for her was a vote for the future Trump railed against immigration to the United States and questioned his opponent's ability to get anything done so with less than two months to go where did the candidates and their parties stand and what are the issues driving Victory or defeat today we're talking with shatty Hamid columnist and editorial board member at the Washington HST an author of the problem of democracy and Julia Manchester National politics reporter at the hill okay folks great to have you both here we've just had the first possibly the last we're not sure uh whether there'll be another debate between KLA Harris and Donald Trump but let me just start out with you Julia do debates matter when when we're sort of looking out there of the voters that are left to be harvested or Independents willing to be moved one way or another do you think this debate which we saw matters to them so in general I think debates can matter and we just have to go back to June of 2024 to see that that debate absolutely mattered it was the Catalyst to uh President Biden dropping out of the presidential race now in terms of this debate look I certainly think it gives kamla Harris a boost and it adds to this argument that she is pushing you know that she is more presidential that Donald Trump is pushing chaos he's the chaos candidate um and she's you know it certainly adds to that messaging and I think it definitely gives her a bump and we'll see if it gives her a bump in the polls sometimes we um you know often see those things impact polling that being said though Steve Democrats I'm talking to today have been very cautious about this idea that you know the debate means she wins the election or that it is smooth sailing from here they are very much saying that debates do not win elections but at the same time though I think it's notable that kamla Harris's campaign is calling for a second debate do without what you will shatty let me ask you something here you know I am a a policy wonk I get excited when we talk about policy details and you've had some really interesting commentary out there basically saying we're still light on details but it's somewhat about Vibe you know when we saw the debate um of kamla Harris saying some foreign leaders look at Donald Trump as weak that some of the people that attend his rallies get bored and leave early and I'm not I don't know where those things fit in the spectrum of choice on political choices but he clearly was rattled and I'm interested in this equation between substance and kind of superfluousness stuff that nonetheless seems to make a difference in a debate yeah well exactly I mean it has been a largely substance free campaign um you know for better and worse and we can talk about those different things but I think the bottom line is that people don't vot thank you for mention Bott right exactly people don't vote on policy I mean even think back to 2016 Hillary versus Trump can you think of anyone who compared Hillary's proposals side by side with trumps on all these specific technocratic issues and then made their decision accordingly when the stakes are so high when an election feels existential it's more about what team were part of it's more about a sense of what does it mean to be an American how do we see the future of the Republic do we see Trump is being a threat to democracy as we know it or not it's those bigger questions that animate us it's not marginal tax rates or specifics on Health Care affordability very few people are going to look at those specifics and decide based on that so I think we can't help but be in the place that we're in because it is really a star choice and when it's a stark Choice it's more it's going to be more about Vibes how you feel about the candidate and that's where we're at we might not like it we might wish it was otherwise but I think I think this is the way it will be for I think in the debate we heard kamla Harris you know talk about you know his legal problems and saying it was convicted Fon Etc you've got um you know other questions out there like uh the danger to democracy Etc in American you know know weaker American leadership in the world but there's just a very different feeling about those things and we had with President Biden when he was in the race where you sort of felt like the dark clouds coming over like American democracy on a knife edge of survival you've written that that has Chang that she's sort of elevated beyond that she sort of laughs it off is that is that effective yeah so I I wrote with a colleague in the Washington Post uh last month where we we drew on data analysis of kamla speeches and campaign emails and what we found is that there is a major shift from what Biden was doing Biden was talking a lot about how American democracy was at the risk of dying this Doom and Gloom this sense that everything is falling apart this dness to it and as we can see um kamla has in Incorporated a lot more joy positivity when we looked at the numbers she mentions the future a lot more than Biden did she doesn't talk about January 6 as much she doesn't Focus as much on Trump being a dictator so there is a very conscious shift and I think that's smart because Vibes matter because people want to be at least some people want to be optimistic about their country they want to feel good about being American they want to feel that American democracy is moving forward not backwards and I think she Taps into that kind of enthusiasm and I have to say I I've been a comma skeptic and I still sort of am but I've been pleasantly surprised about how she's run her campaign and even I'm not immune to vibes and I've even been surprised I mean you know my dad is older he you know born and raised in Egypt he's not someone who's online and I went I went back home and we talked about this recently and he used the word joy and Vibes and I've never heard him use the word Vibes before so clearly this is reaching like unexpected audiences well let let me ask Julia this um Julie I watch as I know you did um you see these people all the time president Trump's face looked really tight really serious really upset he didn't as you've written uh in the hill um didn't really want to look at kamla Harris and didn't seem to you know turn her Direction very much but I'm sort of interested she looked like she was having fun and uh and and enjoying on a on a joy ride but this is to remind our our audience this is a woman uh of South Asian descent and black descent very very different um uh amalgamation of character uh running for president and looking like she's having a great time is that the sense do you think that's working number one and as you're out talking to people how is that playing both with Republicans and Democrats and I should say independence yeah well speaking of Vibes I mean that act shotti hit the um nail on the head there she really set the tone I guess the Vibes of the debate right as uh the candidates were walking on stage we saw kamla Harris literally cross the stage shal now little atales going to 2016 handshakes are not something we see most often and we actually saw it again at the Memorial in New York City um so but I think you know last night with kamla Harris doing that she was able to set the tone she was presenting herself as being the bigger person I don't think from watching the clip Donald Trump was ready to cross over and necessarily do the same for though he shook her hand but you know throughout the debate she was certainly um you know she was able to keep her composure she's gotten a lot of criticism in the past you know a lot of critics talk about her laugh um or you know they would call it a CLE Donald Trump talks about it quite a bit um but it's amazing to see now you know her campaign her supporters use that to their advantage I'm talking you know Generation Z voters if you go on Tik Tok or Instagram reals they love the joy of commas campaign and the joy she is really pushing but I think you know when we turn a bit over to the policy side of things and this kind of relates to the vibe The Vibes in this election as well you know she's also pushing this message of freedom and we heard um you know Joe Biden also talking about Freedom the freedom for a woman to um you know be able to get an abortion the freedom for children to go to school and not have to worry about school shootings that's how Democrats have been really positioning themselves on this issue but Harris has especially leaned into that and appealing to voters um you know when you hear freedom I think in it sort of um falls into this category of patriotism and Americana something that I feel it seems that conservatives historically have been more willing to embrace but now we're seeing Democrats under kamla Harris and Tim Walls really start to reclaim that um you know message of freedom and sort of uh you know I guess a um cater it towards their own policy proposals particular yes well Julia I'm glad you mentioned abortion because something that that I think was less Vibe uh for me were the very Stark differences between Trump and Harris on abortion um on immigration that there were some very clear kind of you know big headline differences um on on this we did hear about you know Donald Trump's claim that uh migrants to U Ohio are eating their pets which which was uh I'll tell the folks there's no there's no evidence that that's in fact true uh but um we had various dimensions of that but on abortion I do want to kind of come in because she really you know went through that with very graphic language and sort of talked about how limiting women's choices and what they would be subjected to I'm just interested in both of your kind of views on on on the impact of that that's less Vibe and that actually is Stark difference do you agree Julia yeah absolutely and she knows just looking at it from a strategic standpoint she knows that this is a weakness for Donald Trump Donald Trump himself has said this is a weakness not only for him running as a candidate but also for down ballot Republicans and ever since we saw Row versus Wade overturned something that in that immediate moment was seen as a victory for conservatives and those in the pro-life for anti-abortion movement um you know after that the party has really struggled to gain its footing on this issue it struggled obviously in 2020 and I think it's the reason why Democrats overperformed and Republicans underperformed in Virginia's offe elections in 2023 Glenn yunan was trying to message on this moderate maybe 15we ban or 15we restriction that didn't play with a lot of Swing voters in Virginia so Donald Trump I think it was clear he was struggling to message on this issue and it was notable that when he was talking about it he suddenly pivoted to student loans and how um you the Biden ad Administration has not been able to you know achieve its uh goal of you know paying helping um students you know pay off loans and mass so I think it shows how weak uh Republicans are on it thank you shotty I'd like to get your quick thoughts on that but I also want to ask you something you know uh about KLA Harris's um other framing she said I'm not Joe Biden emphasize the generational shift there which is another nuance and and Vibe I suppose but she sounded to me a lot like Joe Biden when it came to Gaza some East policies yeah I mean on the Middle East someone like me is going to be disappointed I've been very critical of the Biden administration's approach on Gaza for you know all the obvious reasons um but primarily because Biden has really struggled to express any real empathy towards Palestinians as human beings and that's why is that I mean I've noticed that it wasn't until the King of Jordan was with him on stage that you actually heard President Biden talk about the victims of this this conflict with any real human depth and I'm just why is that it's it's a it's really hard for me to get my head around it because Biden is known as the empathizer and chief someone who can relate to people but on this one issue he's really failed to do that I think there's probably a number of reasons he's part of an older generation that still has an idealized vision of Israel um and I think I don't know uh the Middle East is in some ways I think a blind spot for Biden he he's very Pro democracy when it comes to every region but not on the Middle East he's been quite indulgent towards dictators not as indulgent as Donald Trump that's a different level but he promised to put more pressure on Saudi Arabia when he was a candidate but then that largely went by the wayside so I think when it comes to the Middle East he has a very traditional view of let's just kind of get things done with autocrats and kind of hold our noses but I will say Kamala is better when it when it comes to talking about Palestinians she she did have that line about Palestinians deserving dignity right I don't think Biden would have been are those are those are those words or do you suspect she'll have a different plan and action I mean one of the things is we're watching this horrible nightmare uh in Gaza uh uh tens of thousands of innocent people being killed along in in this conflict and you just want wonder is everything now just posturing or do you suspect that KLA Harris will have to at some point uh come out with a decidedly differenty unfortunately up until now she's given no indication that the actual substance of the policy will change I mean even if you look how she talked about it in her convention speech she talked about the suffering of Palestinians but she didn't she talked about it in the passive tense the people who are causing the suffering are Israeli soldiers and the Israeli military so there still is this sense of not making the connection that Israel has to be reigned in and that requires putting pressure on Israel to not be as brutal as it's been towards Palestinian civilians but we'll have to wait and see until if she becomes president that's going to be the real test because I think right now she doesn't want to say anything that will be used against her cause commotion and this is yeah Julia one of the things I found is the most effective line that Donald Trump had in the debate was she wants to do all these things but what have they done for the last three and a half years they've had plenty of time have they done anything on the I mean what you know she sort of sounds like she's against herself uh if you will I mean how is that playing out how did you hear that that comment from Trump yeah so we knew that Trump was going to say that going into this debate you know talking about you know the unfinished job unfinished job you know on the economy for example not doing uh well particularly on immigration that was something he really zeroed in on throughout the debate knowing that that is a weakness for Democrats um you know look I think it would have landed well if he wasn't as rattled throughout the debate I mean shotti said this before a lot of these debates often times are not about substance um and voters aren't necessarily voting on substance and policy 100% of the time so I think that line didn't land the way the Trump campaign wanted it to because he was so rattled and because you know he sort of he went on these tangents for example talking about you know that unfounded claim that immigrants in Springfield Ohio are eating their pets that's a total distraction I mean that might play well with the manga crowd who finds that funny for you know whatever reason but if you're a Suburban female voter in this you know the suburbs of Philadelphia in Bucks County for example watching that I don't know if you appreciated that kind of comment or even if that kind of you know that kind of comment might have um sort of put blinders on for the rest of the debate when it came to Trump so I think he was his own worst enemy in many ways uh and that's why I didn't land you know shotty we're still you know I guess 50 some odd days you know depends on when people watch this show from the election it's still a little bit away but are you getting the sense that either kamla Harris or Donald Trump might drive either a red wave or a Blue Wave do you think that this election is turning out to be very close you know sort of uh you know jump up for a you know you know a ball uh in the air or is it something where you sense a wave might go um one way or the other affecting some of the down ballot races because well we have we don't often talk we're talking a lot about the presidential race but there's also the Senate up for grabs the House of Representatives up for grabs what's your sense like I mean we're not a country where big waves are very likely anymore we're a closely divided nation and I think it's really important for liberals and Democrats to be a little bit self-aware on this there's all this enthusiasm about Kamala but let's not forget this is a very close race and if you look at at most of the election forecasts up until now Kam has a slight Edge but it's not by much and you know Trump could very well win this and I think we also have to remember that Trump speaks to a very different vibe that might be appealing to other parts of the country when he ended on his concluding remarks on in the debate he really emphasize this theme of American Carnage that things are bad that America is in Decline that things are dark and if you're someone who feels Left Behind who's really struggling who is you know not finding meaning in their life the kind of crisis of loneliness that I think a lot of people and there are a lot of those Americans I mean we have to be honest there's a lot of those Americans who feel like the Northeast has sort of you know had it in for them that government hasn't worked out for them that they suffered during a financial crisis and it's very interesting if you watch you know sort of MSNBC versus Fox but MSNBC there's almost no reference of the kind of down andout crowd in America so I'm glad you raised that but you know Julie I'd love to get your sense too you know as you sort of see it how do you see down ballot races being affected one way or another um by the debate that we just had yeah and one thing to me mention that down andout crowd you guys were just talking about a lot of them are in pivotal swing States Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin so you know that message Donald Trump is pushing it may not play well to you know your Aver your average person in a political media bubble and a more liberal bubble but it certainly could play well outside of that look in terms of the down ballot races it's interesting um you know I think it's it's difficult for some of these Democrats running for reelection in tough districts to necessarily or states to necessarily run with kamla or on Comm or excuse me KLA Harris's uh record it was notable that shered brown and John tester did not attend the Democratic National Convention I don't think they will be talking quite a bit about this debate because you know a lot of their voters are not necessarily going to be making their decision um you know based on what they're saying on the debate and it could be a liability for them if they praise Harris um you know there's some there's split ticket voters there's voters who um you know are still very undecided but I think for a lot of these down ballot democrats facing tough races and Republicans as well they want to run as local of a race as possible but what's fascinating though and these polls came out prior to Tuesday night these polls came out on Monday morning consult had um you know slew of swing state polls and actually non- swing state polls as well showing kamla Harris not only closing the Gap in swing States but also making up ground in states where Biden uh was struggling States like Virginia um there was a point I think where Biden was leading Trump by maybe one to two points in Virginia now he uh Harris is leading him by 10 points and one of the states that really fascinates me this election that you know I think we could be talking more about is Florida um you know I don't think Democrats you know are necessarily going to flip Florida I think that's a pretty um you know uphill climb but that morning consult poll showed Donald Trump leading kamla Harris by just two points in that state well just real yeah just real quick just to add on that Julie I want to ask you do third party uh candidates matter in this race when these divides are so does Jill Stein Cornell West does you know RFK and in Donald Trump matter in some of these close aases in ways in which they haven't traditionally mattered but just real short form yeah and I think it's clear RFK the Trump campaign clearly thinks they matter because RFK is desperately trying to get off the ballot in a number of these states um whereas Democrats would rather him stay on the ballot so we're still seeing them have that effect coming back to you know shad's uh great article in the post on Vibe um is Taylor Swift a swing state final words I think it yeah it's very important look Taylor Swift is obviously popular with voters I think across the Spectrum in terms of her music her politics she certainly obviously leans left but you know her brand her music is one thing but she has proven herself to be to be an influence in terms of getting you know young voters in particular to register when she puts out those call to actions on her social media we actually have seen an uptick in registration among young voters and in an election when jenz and Millennial voters say they are more fired up that's very important because even though these voters say they are fired up we know that historically they vote at lower rates compared to um you know baby boomers or people um over 65 years and older so this could uh certainly make a difference so there you have it folks Taylor Swift May in fact be a swing state the hills Julia Manchester and the Washington Post shatty Hamid thank you both for being with us today thanks for having me thank you so what's the bottom line will America remain deeply engaged in the world or less what will it do in Ukraine will Israel policy remain toothless or will Washington actually do anything to help Palestinians achieve Freedom these are the sorts of questions on people's minds both here in the United States and around the world sure the differences between Trump and Harris couldn't be more Stark on so many issues but voters are nearly evenly divided between them so that means that no matter who in November they're going to have a tough time because Americans will not suddenly unite and start to compromise with each other the struggles over crime over the southern border how to manage the economy abortion and yes even foreign policy are going to go on and on that's what democracy is all about it's messy now and it's probably only going to get a lot Messier and that's the bottom line [Music]