BITCOIN RESET: STOP IGNORING This Indicator (Shock Q4 Move Expected)

1, SP500, Market, Data bitcoin's recent 11% flash crash puts it back under $60,000 the fear is once again extreme we've got signs that the market is yet again resetting preparing for the next big move I'm sure you've seen it all before across YouTube the next big move the next breakout what the hell is going on today I want to explain what we're seeing in the traditional markets looking at cryptos Bitcoin the stock markets and the real estate cycle lots of price action Lots of moves to the upside at new all-time highs more on that later in the video but for now hit the like button and subscribe if you haven't already it is your home of the Pepe meme I just read some of your comments yesterday I thought that was pretty funny make sure you hit that like And subscribe button Bitcoin flash crash is what I'm seeing over the last few days that's what I'm hearing so I thought i' address that news of the flash crash we've got liquidations to get through Market data and as I said new all time highs that are showing up at this stage of the cycle the winners curse phase the macro bull market I don't say that lightly and I know many are still fearful that these markets could collapse day after day we hear the bad economic news announcements so here's our agenda for today Market data real estate stock market correction Nvidia has been a big one over the last 24 hours and I dare say it'll be dropped off the radar in the next 24 hours people will completely forget so we'll spend only a very brief moment moment on it then we get into the deep stuff Bitcoin crypto Market sentiment and data the price action of the flash crash what does that mean for this current pattern of the the price action for Bitcoin usdt an interesting one here of a potential break down which is good news for the altcoins we're going to look at eth and Salen as well as there's a little bit of strength showing up here for one and a little bit of weakness in the other nothing too serious but I think it's important to address at this stage with the choppy side ways action and all of this could lead to an altcoin bounce some altcoins have bounced stronger than others you know it's a big one we look at but let's just start with the market data now the next big item on everyone's mind the big one is interest rates we've been talking about this all year looking at the possibility that we wouldn't see any interest rate cuts and so far as we get towards September this will be the longest pause that we've seen in many years it's been over 12 months so that call from January that we did here on the channel absolutely 100% accurate No Cuts now we get towards September and the market is expecting at least one cut maybe two cuts and that's it you can see here here would be the one cut because right now we're at 5.5 and the two cuts would take you down to five and then the market expects a cut every single meeting until June of 2025 obviously we'll wait to see what actually happens because what the market expects and what actually happens have been two very different things for over 12 months now the market has expected Cuts over and over again and even if we get those cuts it might not mean much to the market this one absolutely incredible so nice data here from Seth again and then also from the guys here at compound news looking at what happens with these interest rate Cuts after the first cut going back to 1957 the main narrative here and what we're trying to do is play the market as best as we can because what the media tells us and what other I guess Talking Heads out there generally say is once you start getting the cuts the market is going to crash I'm sure you've heard it more than once already and I've definitely heard it many many times that when you start to get Cuts they expect the market to collapse it's entirely incorrect entirely incorrect now I've done it on the channel here several times looking at the interest rate data overlaid with S&P 500 price because that's what you trade that's where you invest your money you invest it in the price of the underlying asset that could be the S&P could be a stock could be whatever right but you are trading price you're not trading these idiots that talk about why the market must crash to the data what happens after First Rate cut since 1957 you know if you are a regular on the channel I love to go back decades upon decades as much data as we possibly can I don't look shortterm shortterm is very short like 1 year 5 years sometimes that's not even enough you pretty much want to look at least through one cycle and one cycle is roughly 18 to 20 years I know it sounds like a lot but if you want to get the results that most people don't get then you got to do the work so let's do the work here 12 months forward from the First Rate cut the S&P is higher 18 out of 22 times or 82% of the time so 12 months forward we're longer term Traders here the First Rate cut S&P is going to be higher 18 out of 22 times now yes four of those times 18% of the time it's not so if you want to bet on that it's up to you go for gold it could happen right one out of five times maybe it doesn't happen if no recession so if we don't see a recession over the next 12 or so months the draw down is -4% so that doesn't mean that you end up lower at the end of the 12 months it just means within that 12- month period you might see a 4% draw down and then it ends higher as it said here 18 out of 22 times a draw down is essentially from the time of the signal and this is what we're looking at in terms of the signal and to the that and that is to the lowest point of the move to the downside so it's saying here the if there is no recession then the draw down is 4% if there is a recession -6% so something to be concerned about there average gain without recession 11% average gain yes again Yes again with a recession is 8% so the market can still go up with a recession we talked about this all year Germany had a technical recession they're at new alltime highs the UK had a new had a technical recession they also their stock market also pushed to new all-time highs so this worrying about a recession is pretty ridiculous in my opinion and how I'd like to trade the markets eventually you will get a severe recession like you had in 20 8 like we've had in the mid 70s like there was in the early 80s and you still see draw Downs eventually the market goes back high so it just really depends on the time frame that you're looking at here with the markets are you short-term trading or are you longer term trading and if you are longer term trading then the stats stack up on your side so let's move across to the market sentiment so I've looked at some Market data we'll get to the real estate in a second we got the stock market the market sentiment for the S&P 500 still at neutral so we're seeing a significant 2, SP500, Market, Data, Real Estate reset here of the market sentiment it's been several months now of the fear and greed index dropping to fear dropping to extreme fear and then basically hanging out in neutral sure you could throw in a little bit of greed here and there but as you can see well I've drawn the Box the box is sitting in neutral so the market sentiment seems to be on its path to resetting along with that uh just looking at the CPI for Australia that just came out so a quick one for the Aussies here we have dropped now from 3.8 to 3.5 and with these sort of numbers that could eventually lead to an interest rate cut and at the beginning of the year I also said that we wouldn't see an interest rate cut here in Australia we're sitting at 4.35% and it seems pretty ridiculous that they would want to cut the interest rates considering the inflation was still at 3 and a half to 4% it's just way too too close you'd probably expect an interest rate rise before you saw a cut so never believe what the news is telling you just look at the data for yourself and try TR to remove that emotion and what you hope happens to what seems more realistic considering the circumstances considering the circumstances back to America looking at the national home price index core logic case Schiller here the data just came out this week June hit a new all-time high in Australia we're at also new all-time high prices for our um real estate market the housing continues up I know there's about 30% of you from Australia that watch the channel and that continues up you may have recalled from Years Gone by 2020 2021 2022 we were told by all of the Australian experts that the market was supposed to collapse that even the banks said the property prices had to come down 30% during covid they had to come back down 30% or 40% during 2022 when there was fears of more recession and inflation and all that sort of stuff and it's done the opposite it's done the opposite in the US as well now that's not for every single area plenty of areas in the US have not gone up an example for Australia has been Melbourne has been basically flatlining and in some areas also declining but if we're still on this path to the end of the cycle end of the winers curse phase we might see a last ditch attempt by some of the laggards and leading attempts by well the leading cities also continuing higher in the National home price index for the US and for Australia so just make sure you understand which cities are moving which ones are the leaders versus which ones are the laggers it's the same analysis that we use for all and that you should be using for your real estate portfolios it's exactly the same thing you it's humans are in both markets they're going to try and chase some of the laggards and those laggards might not work out as well not give you those returns as well as the leaders Winner's curse phase essentially means we're coming towards the end but before we get to the end you can call it a boom you can call it an everything bubble you can call it a blowoff top any you can call it any one of those things and we get this nice strong move to the upside now don't pay too much attention to where this low exactly hits um and where these other previous tops were the main thing we focus on here is the movement itself it comes up for roughly seven years down within that period up for another roughly seven years and then down for a longer period of time until the cycle starts again that's what you're focused on here when it comes to the actual flow of the cycle this is a time to be in a bull market this is a time to be in that bare Market speaking of a short-term 3, SP500, Market, Price Analysis correction very very shortterm at this point for the S&P 500 very significant move to the upside that we've seen so far S&P 500 here basically the the correction to the downside where we would see some significant price support to remain in a strong position on the short term 5400 points day after day it hasn't come back to that level yet that's about 3% away from current market action now on this correction if that level was to give way there's still a price support level at the previous tops and more importantly the previous lows because they're the longer term pivot Points you throw it onto uh a monthly chart or even a weekly chart you can see the low here comes in at 4950 basically 5,000 points and the previous old all-time high sits at about 4,800 points so you'd need to see a significant breakdown under these levels to invalidate the macro bull market and then confirm the possible beginning of a macro bare Market when nowhere near that at this point so the current reset of the market sentiment has stemmed from the Tia 3day down signal on thep 500 I did a video on this back in July so this is that middle part of July you had your red red and red from a key top don't try and use this anywhere else within the mix it's from very key turning points whether they're lows like here you got 3 days up and that sparked that huge move to the upside or from tops like here here or here and the signal showed up 4, SP500, Market Analysis, NVDA here in mid July which then sparked the move to the downside and has led to an extended correction under the alltime high that's all I was saying back here in that uh in that video you can find that on the channel talking about it live at the time it's people ask to know what's happening next no one knows for sure what's happening next but we're just looking at the probabilities based on the signals we see on the chart and some of those signals do very very well we go into great detail to educate members on how you can use these signals for your trading and investing whether you're short-term trading your longer term trading maybe longer term investing you can use them across any chart stock market stock indices cryptos Bitcoin link to this is in the video description Tia premium place to go otherwise subscribe to the free crypto and economic report and give it a bit of a taster absolutely free the report comes out once a week so that's what we were talking about here at those Peaks and this came in for Bitcoin as well so for the correction to the down we've talked about those moves you can see there is a possible 3% to the 50% level and then a possible 8% to those those lows I'm not saying it's going to get there but you can see how far the market would have to fall to at least test the lows and then fall further to start to invalidate the short and medium term trends for now everything is Rosy and that has also played out with the um the Nvidia earnings call as I said in the agenda here we're looking at Nvidia wall of worry the earnings came out and they were they beat expectations everywhere across the board Revenue net income uh diluted EPS net profit margin operating income etc etc right but when you see news headlines they say that Nvidia stock down after hours despite Q2 earnings beat and raise and so the reason I don't like to use earnings to try and trade from is because one day they could be positive you've got earnings that are going up and then the next time you see the same deal earnings are also going up they've got great reports well now it seem bearish because it wasn't as strong as everyone expected they wanted to see it stronger and so that then shoots the price down people start to get a little bit worried that they're not going to be as strong as they were in the last quarter even though they're still up they're still earning and they're after hours they're down here at around $7 the main thing to do here is just follow the chart now what I want to do is look at the pattern here from the top to the previous top and some of you can eyeball this and see that the volatility is also increasing but the patterns remain very very similar look at how I apply that there tops and a lower top and then a crash right here top a lower top and then a crash and then a recovery and at the moment it's at this stage so so far that has repeated exactly the same does it continue on obviously anyone's guess maybe this comes a little bit further maybe it comes back to test some of these levels but you're just looking at the trend of the market the fear that gets involved at certain times and then is able to be wiped out talking about resetting Market sentiment and then continues higher right so I think this will eventually continue higher where does it end up at the lower end well currently it's at 117 and you got some levels back at about 100 and the previous low here at around 90 to assess whether there is an invalidation in this particular pattern otherwise it's all just a pullback on fear it's all a pullback for the wall of worry and then eventually starts to continue higher the vix is another great place to have a look at whether we're still in this macro Trend um the we just saw a massive Spike on the Vick so the volatility index Yen carry trade fear that was basically the low surprise surprise Market freaks out it is a low and then it bounces back pretty damn hard right so we got the the Japanese carry trade yeah now it's uh spiked up here back down into the bull market my bull market Zone 11 to 17 that's what I've labeled this here and then all I've done is just copy this exact movement price pattern here and just reduceed it a little bit because the spike wasn't as large as the covid spike which is fine and the volatility would potentially play out something like this so maybe we do start to see some more moves to the downside which would then Spike the volatility like you can see with this top and these tops and these tops and so on and so forth right until it ends up back into the bull market Zone like it's done here like it's done here and here so on and so forth you can take this all the way back to the beginning of its chart Big spikes then smaller spikes that lead into this bull market zone so I'm not seeing anything change here in the longer term for the S&P 500 for the NASDAQ for the stock markets you can see we're seeing some corrections again after a pretty significant move to the upside but with these Corrections will come some more fear and that resets the 5, Bitcoin Crypto Price market like you can see here back on the fear and greed index so that's a good place to look at Bitcoin and cryptos also resetting the market sentiment so we've gone through the macro data we've looked at the traditional markets the real estate market which is the most important is at a new all-time high again for June don't forget that it's at a new alltime high and so we get to bitcoin and cryptos here back in the fear Zone again looks like at a resetting stage if we take a look here at a year out it's always a good place to reset so we'll put the Max on here and it's a good place to reset looking at Bitcoin with the crypto fair and greed Index this comes up a lot at many of these lows I think this is a better chart to look at here I've potentially labeled a few of those yep right through the bottoms here more through the bottoms and you've got a reset in the fear and extreme fear zone so a reset of the price action after Extreme greed has to come back down and a nice reset another reset here because it got quite greedy quite quickly boom pulls back and then you run up into this final Peak so that move was roughly over uh 5 to six months there going from May into November again you've got the reset you got extreme fear at the June low another reset here in fear and then a final reset in the FTX collapse and then well the market does its thing you see the gred start to creep back into to the market and only now have we really reset the market sentiment for a long time Bitcoin had not gone back and not Fallen back into the fearful Zone it had touched on neutral um it hadn't gone back into the extreme fear I should say but it had touched a bit in the orange yep you can see here for a little while but it it remained above that in neutral to Greed for quite a lot of this move so this move all the way up to 74,000 so this at least in my opinion in my analysis is a goodlooking market reset that has now taken the good part of 5 months you can see we're into our 168th day under the all-time high after our 3day down Ru came in it's the same thing that I just talked about when we looked at the S&P 500 this signal at the top red red red in a row lower highs lower lows very strong signal also happened for BTC red red red lower highs lower lows most importantly because this one here was green but it was a lower high lower low so now we're at the end stage of this five months uh it's good to see that many have given up the interest is quite low the volumes are lacking compared to where we were in February and March they all the things you want to see for a a reset of prices the liquidity has also been reset again that was from Tuesday actually you can see here there was $281 Million of Longs get liquidated and 6, Bitcoin Crypto Price a total on that day of about $310 million so a good amount of liquidity to reset the market sentiment basically flush out the leverage you had a lot of long expecting higher prices faster didn't happen they got flushed out so that brings us to the present time present time for BTC fear and greed looking absolutely good to the downside the support here is roughly around that $56,000 l I've got 56 it's a previous swing uh important swing low here from May it's a key 50% level using the 2024 range so that's the low of the ETF to the all-time high split it in half you get 56,000 200 and the current range from the the crash in August the flash crash to the top 50% down is 57,000 so you got this nice uh 50 mid-50s level for a potential support zone so we're just above that now now we're also seeing some volume come in here you got the nice support there at 58k there's always a possibility of move to the downside but just keep an eye on the significant levels here 49k and should it break down from 56 you want to see the closes back above that level relatively soon so if it breaks down on the daily probably at least the following day or two you want to see that close back above the the support level which might become resistance if it doesn't now this is looking reminiscent of the last couple of times uh I posted about this to our free Discord you can find a link to that in the video description here just subscribe to the weekly report and you'll get an email that gives you a link to the free Discord I put updates in there if I don't get to update you guys on YouTube so it's a good place to um to follow and you can see a lot of these fake outs fake out to the upside fake out to the downside taking out all those swing bottoms a turn around here a fake out because it came back down tested those levels another fake out another test here and then you start to see a lot of higher lows higher lows 7 & 8, Bitcoin Crypto Price, ETH, SOL higher lows and right around this time as it broke out you had your big names telling you that it was time to short the market so the patterns are looking quite reminiscent to me of these last two accumulation zones where you've got some tests to the upside like we just had basically faked out to the up maybe we see a fake out to the downside and then back in this zone so to the agenda we've covered the market data the real estate tops the stock market Nvidia Bitcoin and crypto Market sentiment and the data there and then also the price analysis of the flash crash and what I think the price action could look like over the coming weeks right and where the uh the strength and weaknesses lie now I've got these last couple to do if this works out then I would expect to see an altcoin bounce in quarter 4 this is basically the reset I say quarter 4 let's wait and see what the charts say but I'd say later this year around that sort of election or after that election so in terms of the exact timing I'm leaving it till quter 4 but I think these two are really important right now usdt and where the majors are sitting this is the usdt dominance chart but it's inverse if you're interested in your technical analysis which direction do you think this should be going in next do you think we're going to see a breakout of these tops as it has potentially hit some support and you'd start to see a breakout here if that's the case you can see that it's inverse which would mean the usdt dominance would actually drop which means where does that money go it either gets pulled out of the market entirely into profits and the whole thing's over or it's going back into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies which leads to the altcoin bounce back when does that happen that's the next question that's why I'm looking out towards quarter 4 as this is the reset time and then the breakout later quarter 4 maybe even quarter 1 but I think it might happen a little sooner than that I have to wait and see the main thing is if you just follow the chart it doesn't matter exactly when that timing is because when the signal gives the breakout hits maybe it's next week well then you're in it doesn't necessarily matter to wait for that exact time you just want to keep following the chart if we invert it again back to the normal uh way around take these levels off you can see that it has hit 50% a couple of times now if it's uh used to right to the top here it's dead on the 50% level at 6.6% so if this chart is going up then Bitcoin and Al are going down that's what we've seen over the last few months if it is going down like it did through here then Bitcoin and alts were going up just like it did from October into March so right now it's getting a bit of a hit at the major 50% level and if it is to break down back under the 50% that would be a a pretty significant sign that the usdt dominance is giving way to more of that money flowing out into Bitcoin and altcoins speaking of which here is a ethereum the largest of the well considered altcoins I guess 2500 a breakdown under and then yesterday closed just above short-term analysis looking okay because of that break above and then back above all of these previous lows so that's the shortterm the longer term still definitely needs a close above $2900 so for the strength if you're looking if you're a little bit less inclined to take the riskier trade the $2,900 level is the safer Place uh otherwise you've got a shorter term strength here with the daily close above 2500 so a key 50% level 20 2500 is right through the middle here of the major level here of the bull market let's get rid of that it's not necessary and the 2900 is the safer level salana on the other hand keeps getting rejected at 50% at $160 it is just the correction 50% level but still an important one to watch the the main hope here for salana is that it's still above the the major bare Market 50% level so it's $13 $34 so even though it's getting rejected at 50 it's basically playing this choppy game because there is still no clear direction for Sol it keeps putting in lower highs and lower um and higher lows on a broader time frame here so if you wanted to get quite granular that's essentially what's going on it's basically just getting into this choppy range until there is this a decision made here what I think is going to happen happen is a decision made by Bitcoin to lead the charge again and then salana might start to play ball to the upside otherwise you you're still in danger of testing some of these lower prices so we look at the bull market range from the $8 to 210 109 so it's still above that 50% level as well it's above two longer term bigger time frame 50% levels and it's below the shorter term 50% level so here's the low to that current top 52 and then also to this entire range here is 160 so good news is above those the bad news is it still hasn't broken and held above 160 for some time like And subscribe links in the video description for our free crypto and economic report and also the free Discord over there where you can get the updates when I'm not making videos here on YouTube thanks again for your time and attention I'll see you guys back at the next video let me know in the comments section what you are looking at here while Bitcoin hangs on to 59k which alts are you liking the look of or are you still in that camp that you think it's over do you think this is not the reset that I've talked about here on the channel very happy to hear your thoughts comment down below I'll see you guys at the next video till then take care and peace out