Wharton's Jeremy Siegel: No way Democrats can hold the Senate if Trump wins the presidency

Published: Jul 14, 2024 Duration: 00:05:43 Category: News & Politics

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STILL GOT A WAYS TO GO, MIKE. JOINING US NOW TO TALK ABOUT POTENTIAL MARKET IMPLICATIONS OF THIS PAST WEEKEND'S VIOLENCE IN PENNSYLVANIA, JEREMY SIEGEL, PROFESSOR EMERITUS OF FINANCE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA'S WHARTON SCHOOL OF BUSINESS. CHIEF ECONOMIST AT WISDOM TREE. JUST OVER THE YEARS, JEREMY, AND WE BOTH WATCHED THINGS FOR A LONG TIME. MANY TIMES IT'S ALMOST STAGGERING THAT GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS HAVE LESS EFFECT THAN WE WOULD EXPECT ON MARKETS, AND THAT CAN BE WARS OR -- I REMEMBER BOTH GULF WARS, THE WAY THEY STARTED, AND IT SEEMS LIKE THE MARKETS STILL TRADES ON SOMETHING ENTIRELY DIFFERENT, USUALLY. DO YOU EXPECT IT TO BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME? >> WELL, YOU'RE RIGHT, JOE. ULTIMATELY EARNINGS, ALSO ULTIMATELY THE FED, INTEREST RATES, MONETARY POLICY. WHEN YOU GO BACK IN HISTORY, THAT'S, YOU KNOW, THAT'S IMPORTANT. I WOULD LIKE TO COMMENT, AS YOU WERE TALKING TO DAVE McCORMICK, SENATORIAL ASPIRANT ABOUT DOWN-BALLOT EFFECTS. IN MY CALCULATION, IF -- IF TRUMP WINS AS, OF COURSE, THE PREDICTED MARKETS ARE PUSHING FOR, THERE IS NO WAY THE DEMOCRATS CAN HOLD THE SENATE. EVEN IF THEY WIN EVERY SINGLE, WHAT'S CALLED, SWING DEMOCRATIC VOTE IT WOULD BE 50/50 WITH THE REPUBLICANS HOLDING THE PRESIDENCY. NOW, THAT HAS AN ENORMOUS IMP MR. KAG IMPLICATIONS IN REGULATORY AGENCIES OF COURSE, JUDICIARY IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT AND, OF COURSE, YOU KNOW, TWO CONSERVATIVE, MOST ELDERLY, ALITO AND THOMAS, MAY DECIDE TO RETIRE, AND COULD BE REPLACED, CERTAINLY WOULD BE REPLACED BY TRUMP WITH YOUNGER CONSERVATIVES. THAT WOULDN'T CHANGE THE 6-3 BALANCE, BUT THAT WOULD CERTAINLY CEMENT THAT MAJORITY IN FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME, AND WE SHOULDN'T DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE SUPREME COURT. I MEAN, THE CHEVRON DECISION, GO DOWN THE LINE ABOUT WHAT MIGHT EFFECT INDUSTRIES AND WHAT MIGHT AFFECT THE MARKETS GOING FORWARD. BUT THOSE ARE POTENTIAL LONGER TERM. IF I WAS ACTUALLY -- I THINK THE HOUSE STILL IN PLAY, IF YOU WANT TO KNOW THE TRUTH. THE MESS THAT THE GOP MADE OF THE, YOU KNOW, FIRST COUPLE YEARS WITH SPEAKER, IS STILL ON THE MINDS OF A LOT OF VOTERS. I STILL THINK THE GOP PROBABLY IS FAVORED TO KEEP IT, BUT IF I WERE A DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST RIGHT NOW I WOULD SAY, LET'S TRY TO HOLD THE HOUSE. BECAUSE IF THEY HOLD THE HOUSE. >> TAKE THE HOUSE. YEAH. >> THEN ALL THE TRUMP TAX CUTS -- WELL NOT ALL OF THEM. SOME WERE PERMANENT. MANY OF THEM WOULD HAVE TO BE RENEG RENEGOTIATED. KEEPING THE SENATE IS IMPORTANT FOR JUDICIARY. SUPREME COURT. REGULATORY, BUT HOLDING THE HOUSE WOULD BE IMPORTANT, YOU KNOW, IN TERMS OF WHETHER THOSE TAX CUTS -- >> YOU MEAN TAKING THE HOUSE. BECAUSE RIGHT NOW IT'S, LIKE, ALMOST -- IT'S ALMOST SPLIT. IT'S SO CLOSE. THAT WOULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE WHETHER -- AND IF IT -- IF IT WAS A LARGER MARGIN OF REPUBLICANS, MAYBE MORE. RIGHT NOW IT'S ALMOST AS IF THEY DON'T CONTROL THE HOUSE. WHAT YOU'RE SAYING. THAT IS A FERTILE AREA, PROBABLY FOR FUND-RAISING AND EVERYTHING ELSE FOR DEMOCRATS, I WOULD THINK YOU'RE RIGHT ABOUT THAT, PROFESSOR. >> YEAH. I MEAN, AND THAT -- YOU KNOW, LOOKING AT THE SITUATION REALISTICALLY GOING FORWARD NOW FOR THE DEMS, IF THEY CAN TRY TO SWITCH. YOU KNOW, WE KNOW, REALLY, THE VOTING PUBLIC DOESN'T MIND A CHECK ON POWER, WHAT THEY SAY, TO HAVE A SPLIT CONGRESS. SO THAT NO ONE JUST RUNS AWAY WITH ONE IDEOLOGY VERSUS THE OTHER. BUT CLEARLY, I MEAN, THE MARKET -- I MEAN, YOU KNOW, WE'LL PREFER TRUMP. MORE FREE MARKET. ANTI-REGULATORY. FOR GROWTH. THEY HAVE A -- THEY'RE NOT THRILLED ABOUT THE TARIFFS, BUT THE TRUTH OF THE MATTER IS THAT TRUMP LIKES TO WIELD THE TARIFFS AS A THREAT TO NEGOTIATE BETTER POSITIONS ON, YOU KNOW, BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS. WHETHER IT REALLY, YOU KNOW, HAS A 10%, OR NOT, I DON'T REALLY KNOW. YOU KNOW, WHETHER THAT'S EVER GOING TO HAPPEN OR NOT. A LOT OF THINGS THAT, YOU KNOW, CERTAINLY COULD OFFSET THAT. SO -- BUT IN THE SHORT RUN, I MEAN, AS WE ALL KNOW. NOT ONLY IS IT THE QUESTION OF, ARE WE GOING TO LET FREE MARKETS AND, YOU KNOW, THE ENTREPRENEURIAL SPIRIT OF THE ECONOMY BUBBLE UP, AS IT DID, I THINK, DURING THE FIRST TRUMP TERM. AND I THINK THAT'S WHAT THE MARKET IS LOOKING FORWARD TO NOW. WILL THERE BE A SECOND TIME WHERE THOS

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