Eli Lilly's Zepbound single-dose vials will expand access to more patients: Mizuho's Jared Holz

LAST OF THE MAJOR AMERICAN SPORTS LEAGUES TO TAKE THIS STEP. >> ELI LILLY ANNOUNCING SINGLE-DOSE VIALS OF ITS ANTI-OBESITY DRUG, ZEPBOUND. THE COMPANY SAYS THAT THESE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SELF-PAY FOR PATIENTS WITH AN ON-LABEL SUBSCRIPTION, AND THAT THEY'LL BE DISCOUNTED. LILY SAYS THIS WILL EXPAND THE SUPPLY OF THE DRUG IN THE FACE OF HIGH DEMAND. JOINING US NOW, JARED HOLTZ, MIZUHO SECURITIES STRATEGIST. DID THIS COME AS A SURPRISE TO YOU, JARED? AND EXACTLY WHAT DOES IT MEAN IN YOUR VIEW TO THE MARKETPLACE? >> HEY, JOE, THANKS A LOT FOR HAVING ME. NOT ULTIMATELY SURPRISED. THE COMPANY HAS BEEN TALKING ABOUT OFFERING, YOU KNOW, DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF THIS MEDICINE FOR A COUPLE OF MONTHS NOW. AND THIS LILY DIRECT IS BASICALLY THEIR WAY OF GETTING AROUND ALL OF THE THIRD PARTY CHANNELS THAT MAKE IT, AT TIMES, MORE DIFFICULT TO GET TREATMENT. SO NOT SURPRISED. I THINK IT'S PROBABLY A NEUTRAL IN TERMS OF HOW MOST ARE GOING TO LOOK AT THE STOCK, BUT IT'S GOING TO EXPAND ACCESS. I MEAN, THESE ARE FOR PATIENTS THAT PROBABLY CANNOT GET ZEPBOUND EITHER THROUGH INSURANCE OR THROUGH MEDICARE AND MEDICAID. SO IT'S A VILAL, IT'S NOT ONE O THESE PENS THAT ARE SUPER EASY TO INJECT, BUT STILL IMPROVE ACCESS TO A LOT MORE OF THE POPULATION HERE. >> SO IT'S HARD TO MAKE THOSE PENS? I REMEMBER THERE WAS A SHORTAGE -- I REMEMBER IT WAS MYLAN LABS AND REMEMBER, JOE MANCHIN'S DAUGHTER AND -- IS THAT WHAT IT IS? IS IT THAT IT'S HARD TO MANUFACTURE? IS IT EXPENSIVE? IT CONSUDOESN'T SEEM LIKE AN ADVANTAGE TO HAVE TO INJECT YOURSELF OUT OF -- THAT'S AN ACTUAL VIAL, HYPODERMIC NEEDLE AND EVERYTHING. I WOULD RATHER DO THE PEN. WHY? >> SURE. I THINK A LOT OF IT COMES DOWN TO COST. THESE ARE EXPENSIVE TO MANUFACTURE. YOU'RE LOOKING AT ONE -- FOR EACH DOSE, YOU NEED ONE OF THESE PENS. SO, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A LOT THAT KIND OF GOES INTO IT. I THINK BETWEEN NOVO NORDISK AND ELI LILLY THIS YEAR ALONE, THEY'RE SPENDING CLOSE TO $20 BILLION JUST MANUFACTURING THESE SINGLE-USE PENS. THE FACT THAT YOU CAN ONLY GET ONE DOSE OUT OF EACH ACTUAL INJECTOR KIT, SO TO SPEAK, YOU KNOW, MAKES IT PRETTY DIFFICULT TO YOU KNOW GET THIS TO AS MANY PATIENTS AS THEY WANT TO. THE VIAL'S OBVIOUSLY MUCH CHEAPER TO MAKE. >> THAT MAKES TOTAL SENSE. THERE'S PROBABLY A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT WOULD LIKE TO DO THIS, AND IT'S A LOT OF MONEY, BUT THERE ARE PEOPLE THAT HAVE MONEY THAT PROBABLY WANT TO DO IT. AND YOU KNOW, IT'S INSURANCE PROBLEMS, MEDICARE PROBLEMS, SO THEY SPEND 500 BUCKS AND THEY CAN DO IT. THEY CAN GET ON THIS DRUG? >> YEAH, EXACTLY. I MEAN, WHEN YOU KIND OF LOOK AT WHAT THE GLPs DO, IN TERMS OF OTHER HEALTH BENEFITS, WE ALWAYS TALK ABOUT PREVENTIVE MEDICINE AND THE FACT THAT SO MANY OF THE DRUGS WE TAKE ARE KIND OF AFTER THE FACT. AFTER WE'VE ALREADY CONTRACTED SOME SORT OF ILLNESS. THESE PREVENT SO MANY OTHER, YOU KNOW, UNDERLYING MEDICAL CONDITIONS. SO HEART ATTACKS, STROKE, DIABETES. I FEEL LIKE $500, IF YOU KNOW THAT ALL OF THESE OTHER VITAL SIGNS ARE GOING TO IMPROVE, PLUS YOU LOSE 15 TO 20% OF YOUR WEIGHT, IS ACTUALLY NOT THAT EXPENSIVE. OBVIOUSLY, IT'S GOING TO COME DOWN TO, YOU KNOW, SO MANY ECONOMIC FACTORS, ASIDE FROM THAT. BUT I THINK IT'S A SMALL PRICE TO PAY FOR SOME OF THE DATA WE'VE SEEN. >> 15%. I DON'T WANT TO LOSE -- I WOULD LOOK LIKE -- I WOULD LOOK ILL, I THINK, JARED. AND I'M TRYING TO -- OKAY, SO I DON'T GET DIABETES, I DON'T GET ALL OF THOSE THINGS, BUT I STILL HAVE TO INJECT MYSELF WITH A NEEDLE. IS THAT A -- I'M -- I GET THAT IT WOULD DEFINITELY BE -- YOU KNOW WHAT ELSE, JARED, SLEEP AN NIA. I MEAN, ANYTHING THAT YOU CAN THINK OF OF JUST BEING OVERWEIGHT, I'M JUST WONDERING, WHETHER, IS THAT HOW IT SOLVES ALL OF THESE UNDERLYING CONDITIONS, JUST FROM MAKING YOU THINNER OR IS THERE SOME OTHER UNDERLYING -- I GUESS THERE IS A -- FOR DIABETES, THERE'S AN UNDERLYING MECHANISM WHEREBY WITH IT ACTUALLY HAS EFFICACY, TOO. >> YEAH, THESE DRUGS HAVE BEEN APPROVED FOR DIABETES FOR OVER A DECADE NOW. SO THAT WAS THE FIRST INDICATION. THAT'S HOW THEY KIND OF FIGURED OUT, YOU KNOW, WHEN THEY SAW PATIENTS LOSING WEIGHT ON THE DRUG, THAT'S HOW THEY KIND OF PIVOTED TO OBESITY. AND MOW IT'S GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST MARKET. >> WHAT IF YOU'RE MERCK OR PFIZER. OR WHAT IF YOU'RE NOT IN THIS -- WHAT IF YOU'RE NOT PLAYING IN THIS MARKETPLACE? DO YOU NEED TO BE? >> YOU'RE LATE, FOR SURE. THIS WILL BE THE BIGGEST MARKET IN ALL OF DRUGS, WITHIN A COUPLE OF YEARS, JOE. SO I THINK YOU'VE GOT TO BE HERE. MERCK HAS MADE SEVERAL COMMENTS PUBLICLY THAT THEY'RE LOOKING AT THE SPACE, LOOKING AT DIFFERENTIATED NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE THAT IS. THERE'S A BUNCH OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE COMPANIES IN THIS SPACE, SO THEY HAVE THEIR -- IYOU KNOW SO THE ASSETS TO CHOOSE FROM. PFIZER IS WORKING ON AN ORAL GLP. THEY'RE KIND OF IN THE DOSE DISCOVERY PHASE, SO TO SPEAK. THEY'LL HAVE MORE NEWS ONSPEAK. WE'LL HAVE MORE NEWS ON THAT NEXT YEAR. THEY'RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHAT DOSING TO MOVE FORWARD WITH. SO THEY'RE KIND OF IN THE GAME. MERCK IS TALKING LIKE THEY WANT TO BE IN THE GAME. 100-MILL DOLLAR PLUS MARKET, I'M NOT SURE AS A PHARMA COMPANY WHY YOU'RE NOT HERE. >> WHAT'S NEXT, TO FINALLY GET THIS MAINSTREAMED. ANDREW IS NOT HERE TODAY BUT HE WANTS A PILL. A MICRO DOSE PILL. IS THAT FEASIBLE? DOES THAT TAKE MORE RESEARCH? WHEN CAN WE EXPECT THAT? >> YEAH, I THINK THAT'S THE NEXT CHAPTER OF THE STORY, NOVO IS WORKING ON THE PILL. A COUPLE OF SMART CAPS WORKING ON THE PILL. I'M NOT SURE, THE WEIGHT LOSS THEY'RE GETTING OFF THE INJECTIONS IS SO SIGNIFICANT. BUT AS A MAINTENANCE THERAPY, I FEEL LIKE ANYONE'S WHO TAKEN ZEPBOUND OR WHO HAS TAKEN WEGOVY COULD PIVOT AND TAKE AN ORAL EVERY DAY TO KEEP THE WEIGHT OFF, EVEN IF THEY'RE NOT LOOKING TO LOSE MORE. I THINK AS A FRONT LINE OR A MAINTENANCE THERAPY, IT'S GOING TO BE A MASSIVE MARKET. . SO, ORAL -- >> I'M LOOKING AT THAT CALL YOU MADE BACK IN 2020. I THINK YOU TOLD PEOPLE TO PUT ALL YOUR MONEY IN PFIZER AND NOTHING IN -- YOU DIDN'T DO THAT. I'M KIDDING. DO YOU HAVE A MONITOR? YOU CAN SEE THAT? PFIZER WAS THE BELL OF THE BALL DURING COVID. PFIZER IS DOWN 11% IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS, LILLY'S UP 753%. THEY'RE BOTH LIKE BLUE CHIP PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES. IT'S STAGGERING. IT'S JUST LIKE BEYOND COMPREHENSION ALMOST, ISN'T IT? >> IT'S UNBELIEVE -- IT'S UNBELIEVABLE, I MEAN, I THINK ABOUT IT EVERY DAY. YOU GOT, ELI LILLY IS NOW THE LARGEST DRUG COMPANY BY A MILE. IT'S THREE OR FOUR TIMES BIGGER THAN PFIZER AT THIS POINT. >> COULD ADD UP TO ALL OF THEM? >> ALL OF THEM, YEAH. PFIZER USED TO BE THE COMPANY THAT WE KIND OF STARTED WITH IN PHARMA FROM A SIZE STANDPOINT, BUT NOW IT DWARFS LILLY. THIS IS SUCH A