5 Bets YOU Need to Make for TNF! Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins | TNF Best Bets | Green Dot Daily

w [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] he [Music] w [Music] [Music] and Josh Allen improved to a record 7 and0 when playing on Thursday Night Football or will the Miami Dolphins play spoiler at their home stadium in South Beach behind a dynamic offense hello everyone and welcome to the Tommy John studio in New York City I am your host Charlie dko ready for tnf of course there's no such thing as a Prime Time game without Sean Kerner and Nick gfin hopping on to dish out their Best Bets so we'll hear from them in just a SEC plus Brian Matthews joins me for a little four down territory breaking how this game how you should bet this game despite the lack of dolphins props mostard out anan's questionable so we'll help you please Miami tell us if hn is playing so we can bet some of these props we'll also shove up a little SGP with Billy Ward before I go Toe totoe with a wheel once again that dang wheel is banged up after an early uppercut from your boy so I must say that but speaking of going toet to toe let's take a deeper look at the competition the better competition for tonight yeah that's on the grid iron with Tua T of aloa and Josh Allen Allen has gotten the best of the bills and Tua with a career record of 11-2 of course that is in postseason play Tua on the other hand has immensely struggled with just one win to his name and more interceptions than touchdowns of course he didn't play in that postseason game last year as we welcome in Sean Kerner and Nick gfin to talk more about tnf guys it's so hard to you know from a prop perspective break down with the Miami running back news and the lack thereof I guess surrounding Devon hm but Sean from a whole I know you gave out you wrote this game up and broke it down over at action network.com you like the bills catching three here yeah so again check my full preview for my uh full analysis but I I am on the bills here it's 2 and a half I'm going to just kind of wait and see if it gets up to three if not I'll buy the Half Point um but you know last week I cashed on the Cardinals plus 6 and a half against the bills because I thought you know Buffalo would get off to a bit of a slow start just given the the number of turnover on both sides of the ball uh heading into the year uh and sure enough that's what happened they went down 173 early uh but from that point on uh they really turned it on and outscored the Cardinals 31 to 11 uh the rest of the way and then they ended up winning by just six so I was able to hang on and win my bet but I I felt lucky and sure enough our expected score for the game that helps fuel our luck rankings suggested you know the bills probably should have won by closer to 20 points and that sounded about right I feel like they got a bit unlucky in that game um you know so heading into tonight I think they're going to keep that momentum going um and you know the the Dolphins defense uh specifically I I felt that they could get off to a slow start this year just because they're going from you know Vic vanio to a new defensive coordinator and Anthony Weaver um you know so that could take them a couple games adjust to the new scheme uh plus they lost Christian Wilkins in free agency Bradley chubs on ir and Jaylen Ramsay's playing through a hamstring injury he didn't look quite himself in week one um so I think Josh Allen keeps it rolling T night he's thrown for two or more touchdowns against the Dolphins in all 13 games in his career against them so I I like the bills offense tonight and you know the Dolphins offense they're one of the best in the league but the bills have done a good job slowing down Tua and Tyreek Hill specifically since he's been with the dolphins they've held them below 7 yards and four of five games uh as you know a member of the Dolphins so I think that they have a pretty good scheme when it comes to slowing them down um and like you mentioned you know Josh Ellen 7 and0 on Thursday Night Football um I kind of talked about where having the short week might benefit him because he improvises runs around scrambles does whatever the hell he wants that that might help him specifically on a short week where other teams might need more time to prepare he doesn't he'll just go out there and wing it so I think that's probably partly why he's been so successful with with the short week uh but again like I said I'm I'm waiting to see if this gets up to uh plus three uh as the default line if not I'll probably buy the Half Point here at like minus 120 yeah right now I saw bet 365 has minus 130 obviously you could shop around probably find a little bit better and stay closer till the game approaches if hn also ends up playing for sure that also might help move the line a little bit in favor of the Dolphins and then you can of course Buy on the bills there Nick gin how do you feel about this game do you share a similar sentiment with Sean absolutely yeah I like the three uh if you can buy that half point or just kind of wait it out and see if it gets there look the Buffalo Bills so a little Quirk of our luck rankings right is we grade expected win probability from our expected score versus actual winning percentage right so the bills have a 100% winning percentage so by definition they're lucky uh that means they're the 13th ranked team in our luck rankings but another way we could look at is looking at expected score versus actual score and as Sean alluded to it was a six-point game for Buffalo vers Arizona but it should have been an 189 20po game by our expected score metric so in that regards Buffalo was actually unlucky uh and so when we look at it that way now we I do look at it both ways I have found that using the versus the record uh does give us a better record when betting versus the spread but this is also a nice way to do it and in this case Buffalo would be the fifth most unlucky team in a matchup this week besides the four luck rankings matchups that we put out and Buffalo's on the road here and we found Road unlucky teams especially early in the season tend to cover even more so just another different way of looking at our luck rankings even though the bills appear lucky they actually were unlucky by expected scor so I like that look here yeah and obviously key to get that three and you know I feel like if it all comes down to it and you repeat it over so many times likely the number is going to end on three or the bills possibly winning this outright but definitely interesting to keep an eye on of course we talking sides we got to get on to the props because that's what everybody is here for they want to hear what you guys have to say from a prop perspective so Sean kerer kick us off where are you headed uh I got another ugly under for you it's Curtis Samuel of the bills to go under 18 A5 receiving yards you can get it at minus 110 uh but you know I I was very interested to see how the Bills wide receiver room would kind of shake out in week one and it it appeared K Samuel was the odd man out he only ran a route on just 30% of Josh Allen's dropbacks in week one um now I suspect this is due to his turf toe injury he's been dealing with in Camp uh he he was actually like questionable to even play uh week one so I figure that's probably the main reason he was limited but the fact that they're playing just four days later means that that you know limitation might hold true here um so you know I expect his playing time to be down plus uh you know an increase in playing time would take away from khil Shakir uh who's playing very well right now and he's the most experienced wide receiver in this offense so I figured they would kind of bump his playing time early on this season anyway so I think that Trend will hold um if not you know if Samuel ends up running a route on 50% of Allen's dropbacks that would not be great but I still think there's some underlying factors there to kind of keep keep this down so you know the bills offense has been very runhe heavy ever since uh Joe Brady took over his offensive coordinator and that was true again in week one so um you know that's going to help lower the overall passing Volume Plus anytime Josh Allen drops back you know he's a threat to scramble so that's going to take away from potential targets um and also Dalton con Kade had a very rough week one he only had one catch on two Targets so this week I expect them to Pepper him with targets so you know if he bounces back those are targets that are going to be taken away from other players um and they might just involve you know Samuel on the running game um you know so he can get a couple R design Rush attempts in this game and that would you know take away from potential targets if he's on a limited snap count so um I'm projecting this median closer to 14 yards with about a 60% chance he stays under but I still think there's a lot more underlying factors he's going to be closer to his floor tonight an ugly ugly under but listen Sean I've been learning over the first couple of weeks how I'm going to cope with betting this I'm going to root for Dalton conade I'm going to root for James Cook I'm gonna root for someone else in the passing game Keon Coleman to do some damage see that's how I'm processing this so that I can get behind some ugly Huns but Nick giin you on Monday targeted a kicker prop and that one cleared you know within a blink of an eye and you're doing the same thing here but you're actually fading a kicker in this one yeah no clearing this one in the blink of an eye we got to wait all game for this one cuz it is a kicker under but uh we're gonna go Jason Sanders Miami's kicker to have under two and a half extra points made you can get that at minus 120 he stayed under this number in four or five meetings between Miami and buffalo in the you know the Tua Tyreek WD and of course Mike McDaniel era they did have a playoff meeting in there as well it's why five games uh and one of the reasons is Mike McDaniel he goes for two-point conversions at a really low rate just under 4% uh when he's been head coach of Miami but against Buffalo this has bumped up to 21% of the time after they score a touchdown they go for two part of that is you know of course trailing and if we like Buffalo plus three that could be something here as well we also have Miami's banged up offense as we've talked about any little lower efficiency there and especially as Sean talked about maybe on third and Longs that could lead to more field goals instead of touchdowns uh also I think Miami could just settle for more field goals anyway uh because they know how good Buffalo's offense is you don't want to give up uh you know bad field position to Buffalo by going forward on fourth in some of these questionable spots and and maybe not getting it and then having a sharp Buffalo offense so you want to take the points against Buffalo is kind of the theory that I think mcdels has operated under because uh he has gone for a field goal on every single fourth down in field goal range against Buffalo except three one of those was a fourth and one which makes sense uh and then twice they were down 28 in the fourth quarter right so you just got to go for it anyway at that point in time but in these cases if you're down 28 in the fourth quarter you get a touchdown probably going for two anyway because you got to make up all these points so uh that you know just supports more reason that Miami might not have extra points here there's a chance of rain it doesn't seem like it but if there is potential rain you know that could lessen the chance of a made extra point as well so I'm projecting this to stay under two and a half close to 60% of the time and if we do get some sprinkles or a rain during the game a little bit over 60% of the time we'll stay under here this is why we bring you guys in because I would never know that you know Sanders and when McDaniel's coaching that he goes for two at an astronomical rate compared to just any other team it's the Buffalo Bills maybe McDaniel C's ghosts wants to just play it safe it kind of makes sense not going for or I guess not taking the one and going for two trying to get that upper hand and you know McDaniel seems like the type of guy if if they're close late they tie it up with a touchdown with like a minute left he's going to go for the outright win and try and take it home so there you have it Jason Sanders under extra point made before I I let you guys go I do want to ask and Sean you know me and you you know last season in the postseason I bet James Cook rushing in receiving yards and you made a joke before the uh the show on how I'm going back to the well here and you'll hear about me the rest of the show liking James Cook that's a spoil alert but I want to ask before I let you guys go cuz you know you're the projections guy I look at the projections and they like James Cook rushing they like James Cook receiving at least project a little bit higher in general I've seen this number go from 83 to 85 down to 81 I feel like James Cooks going have a great day am I missing something by seeing all this line movement just going absolutely crazy no I I think in theory uh I I like James Cook over as well because I'm on the bills here so I think the bills will uh you know hopefully have a leading game script and that's just going to lead to to more Touches for James Cook the one thing I would caution is this game is in Miami uh it's going to be hot even though it's at night you know it's going to be like in the mid 80s uh and buffalo is a cold weather team so I tend to downgrade backs uh in this environment and I'm kicking myself because I almost faded Travis etm last week and took tank bby's over and you know sure enough both hit but uh I think that's the one thing is you might see more of a rotation with like Davis or Ty Johnson uh mixing in or who knows Curtis Samuel getting some rushing attempts uh so that's the only thing I would caution but I think the game script would be in his favor here okay yeah I I see this I see tank bsby going for such a high number I'm like oh James Cook going to he's a South Florida boy he's used to this area this used to this temperature I don't know I guess I guess what to see and if he goes negative five yards and then never touches the ball again and I lose once again uh he might actually have to be banned from Charlie derero portfolio but Sean Kerner Nick gin thank you so much appreciate your guys' Insight and we'll be back on Monday for Monday Night Football yeah and I'll see you on what happens live if you want access to all of Action Pro projections make sure to sign up for our annual subscription that is currently on sale access includes exclusive player pop picks from Sean Kerner and the other members of the action analytics team and Action Pro just keeps getting better you'll now get Shan Ker's anytime touchdown projections allowing users to quickly see the biggest TD edges for the upcoming NFL slate to sign up visit action network.com proot toay and use code gd20 at signup one more time that's gd20 at sign up for $20 off here are my two touchdown score picks for Bills Dolphins brought to you by the Action Network app in my first pick I went with Dalton concate I grabbed his touchdown odds at plus 225 now he wasn't really part of the game plan in week one but the encouraging news is he did out snap my guy tight end Dawson Knox did see a red zone Target concade ran a route on 25 of 26 passing plays in week one I think he'll see more targets now especially facing this Dolphins defense that ranked 30th in defensive D way versus tight ends they allowed seven touchdowns of tight ends as well that was bottom five in the NFL and coming into this season if you go back the Miami has allowed the second most touchdowns to tight ends over the last two years now it might come back to bite me for not betting on Dawson Knox at plus 500 but concade may as well be wide receiver too in this offense and my next pick hold your nose it's going to be stinky we're going to take Braxton baros for a touchdown at plus 750 part of the reason why I took baros here is the injuries to the Dolphins wheree moster is out Devon hen missed some practice Jaylen Wadd had to lead the game briefly week one I think Tyreek Hill is likely going to be double covered all game and at this stage I'd rather take a swing on baros at plus 750 especially with him returning kicks and for what it's worth barel did have a touchdown for the Dolphins last year versus Buffalo in week four he was plus 550 to score so those are my two bets we're going with Braxton baros and Dalton kin Cade both tracked at the Action Network app bone shs [Applause] thank you Jill and the touchdowns are not going to stop here on green. daily as now we welcome in Brian Matthews to the show for a little four down territory bat how you feeling ahead of Thursday hey feeling good man you left us on the the touchdown show so I'm feeling pretty special here today to get this invite and join you on green do daily listen sometimes you got to go for greener pastures no I'm just kidding it's not greener pastures it's just a a little bit of a switch up but I got to make sure you're still on we're still chopping it up about football obviously Thursday night in particular Dolphins bills is such an interesting game mostly because Raheem Mo's out and Devon H is questionable so the props are not as willingly available but of course four down territory we got to make four picks every single leg going longer and longer in the odds board and uh just a spoiler alert ahead of time my pick my last pick 11 to one on the payout a very good long shot if you want to have some fun but B mat I'm going to take us started as the host I'm going first I kind of just made that presidential decision uh so I'm taking a minus 115 price right now on James Cook over rushing and receiving yards I just don't see how this number should not be in the high 80s if not the 90s he's in line for 20 plus touches uh as the rb1 of this bill's offense and if there's one thing we've seen with Brady taking over as the offensive coordinator it's an emphasis on the run and James Cook also has that ability to make a difference in the passing game three plus Targets in nine of his his last 10 games I'm just expecting this to be a great James Cook showing he's from South Florida they're going to give him the ball and then you look at the Dolphins last week and how they got absolutely torched by Tank Big bsby James Cook's another level than tank bsby so I like him to do some damage here in our first leg how do you feel about that one and uh where you headed for number two hey as I always say volume is king and you know with Brady in charge Cook's just been getting fed so I I don't I think this is a game where it gets out of hand so I like the fact that you know he should see a good number of rushing attempts which we've come to see Y and conversely Miami can put points up and he's involved in the passing game so I think the receptions will be there too so I like the first leg that we got all right so the second one in particular doesn't go against James Cook but uh you know it does affect him a little bit and that's going with a plus money touchdown prop and uh none other than a a regular on the touchdown show in Josh Allen yeah I'm not I I was looking at the names before this and even when I was talking to you I thought all right maybe Dalton King K you know I'm I'm trying to work around and like it comes back to I don't know how we're getting Josh Allen just before we're recording it was plus 105 uh for an anytime touchdown he has scored a rushing touchdown in eight of his last nine games and not just that of those eight games four of those were multi- touchdown game so we're talking about 13 touchdowns in nine games and if you're going to give me plus 100 or Plus 105 in a game with you know a 48 point total yeah I'm going to take it so yeah we'll go back to the well it's a nice nice plus odds too so we'll get at least a little bit of bump in the odds here on our SGP and I think we can move on yeah well let's I mean we can continue to move on here you're going to go again in just a sec but obviously it's so interesting not James Cook is the not the vulture or the backup running back I would say Tyler Johnson or whoever the ray Davis out in Kentucky they're not the vultures it's Josh Allen that is the vulture of the Buffalo Bills running back room which is so funny to think about but it's crazy that we're getting plus money for him because anytime he's inside the 5 yard line they're not handing the ball to James Cook let's be let's let's be real here so like this one here as the second leg third leg in particular we got to go higher than plus 100 where are you headed my friend all right look I'm going to go to the Zone killer I'm going to go Jaylen Wadd and I'm going to go 70 plus receiving yards I grabbed his line earlier at 62.5 I think it might be up around 64 and a half but I'm going to go 70 plus I I really am surprised with the amount of teams that decide to run man coverage against the Miami Dolphins especially when you have Tyreek Hills so the bills are not one of those teams they are Zone heavy they will make you you know beat them down the field and they're not going to give up big plays at least that's the emo of their defense so uh I think it could be a big Jaylen Wadd night as we said no moster it looks like hn is going to play but I still think that Wadd like you said if he stays healthy uh you know I think he's going to have a big night and if you look at you know two of his last four games against the bills he's had at least 100 yards receiving so and going back to last week in week one he had 100 plus receiving yards on five receptions and he did that in three quarters you know he was nearly gone an entire quarter while being evaluated for a concussion so yeah I just think this is a game that sets up well for Jaylen Wadd totally agree with you I think all the attention's going to Tyreek and the only the only knock to this one is if jayen WD gets hurt and that feels like you know you're always wondering and looking like cuz he at the injury tent but like if he plays and he plays I mean even three quarters you said it last week if he plays he's going to get a lot of production I think it's a great matchup for him as well all right B Matt so listen I left the touchdown show not it wasn't by choice okay it wasn't my choice but I don't get the opportunity of doing the mild medium the spicies I don't get the opportunity of taking a long shot stab here so rather than going to like 2 to one or 3 to one here my fourth down ter we're going Hail Mary we're going like Malik Willis coming in for Jordan love at the end of the Eagles game Hail Mary and that's Julian Hill 11 to1 to score in anytime touchdown don't go crazy with this one people at home because it's a long shot for a reason but I did it with use Che last on Monday with against the Jets and he went down on the three yard line I think it sets up well for Hill to possibly have a chance at scoring an ATD you look at and I was mentioning you and Jill about this before if you look at the snap count and even the amount of passing snaps that Julian Hill was on the field for he led all tight ends with 59% of the snaps and actually had the most passing snaps at 21 more than jnu Smith who can't block to save his life and Durham SMI who is horrible in the passing game so now we got a guy like Hill who's reputable in both in what should be a lot of Red Zone packages with two tight end sets where we've seen Miami like to run the ball well moster out so is Jeff Wilson as effect I don't think so I get the offense is predicated around getting Tyreek the ball Wadd aan but I think if you're inside the five and it's a close game we see a play action and the best blocker is going to be on the field so Julian Hill should be in all of the Red Zone sets so I'm taking a stab here at 11 to one uh this could basically you could SGP the first three legs and then just take this one on the side cuz this's probably not the you know it's it's a long shot for a reason I don't know what your thoughts are in general with this one but uh how how crazy am I no look I I think in the early weeks like there's really an opportunity to look at the snap counts and say like they don't have a read on some guys like you know you look and the odds either get corrected after you bet it you know they you you know end up getting steamed down but let's go for the long shots man people were calling you crazy last year for Tommy tremble and whatnot so let's uh let's hit a crazy one here yeah usually the dbo two plus touchdown was my go-to but uh we we've got we've gotten a few long shots on H touchdown show and you guys had one last week with Jaden Daniels at uh 18 to1 I believe Jill had it that so listen b Mt before I let you go I got to say where where I need next week next week we get you in it's I know it's week two we're getting ready I need I need a long shot for you over three or four to one next time I got you all right there we go so the four leges just um first down territory we went with James Cook over rushing and receiving second down Josh Allen anytime touchdown at plus 100 jayen Wadd third down 70 plus alt line and then taking us home Julian Hill in the Ed Zone baby Brian Matthews appreciate you hopping on and uh best of luck tonight my friend appreciate you last season at the favorites podcast they ran a free $100,000 NFL pickham contest and people went nuts for it they just announced they're bringing it back you make five NFL picks a week it's totally free to sign up there's cash prizes for the top 10 finishers a $40,000 first place prize $100,000 prize pool and thousands up for grab each week go to favorites. action network.com do not miss out sticking with the NFL here are the most bet player props ahead of Thursday Night Football the most bet prop is none other than Tyreek Hill to score the first touchdown at 6 to1 betters are also incredibly high on Bill's quarterback Josh Allen as his touchdown and passing yards prop come in at two and three respectively that is his rushing touchdown as we welcome in Billy Ward to the show to concoct a same game parlay as we always do on Mondays and Thursdays Billy you're going to start us off this time with just one leg I'll throw in my second and then you'll round us out where are you headed for the first leg of Bills Dolphins yeah First Choice I'm going with is the bills point spread plus two and a half you know I'm not a guy who thinks I can reliably beat a point spread if we could do that we wouldn't be cooking up same game parlay but a lot of smart people are on this side of it you know Sean Kerner gave this out in his preview it's also moved a little bit I think we're getting a better price than we got earlier in the week more importantly though it correlates really nicely with the other pick I'm going to give out on the parlay we get really good juice on that it doesn't seem like it correlates but it's one that I think hits more often than not so that's really the key here is how this one interacts with the other bills prop I'm going to be giving out right we'll talk about all three legs obviously you can even buy up to the three three and a half if you want to cuz we are making a same game parlay it's just a matter of what you want you know the payout to be in particular but of course Billy listen we could still be great at spreads and want to do same game parlays there there's something about swinging for the fences here that I love to do and that's why I like doing these so my second leg in particular here it kind of goes against your bills prop uh a little bit or I guess it kind of goes hand in hand J Jaylen Wadd 70 plus receiving yards I'm expecting a big day out of the wide receiver 2 in Miami and and if the bills are up listen they're going to be passing some more but I also think regardless the safeties over the top with Buffalo are not great Demar Hamlin Taylor rrap I think there's a big play threat that could come out of Wadd and if they sit two safeties deep Wadd could eat underneath in the middle that's kind of where he thrives in particular and I think the bills are going to try and bracket Tyreek Hill they're going to show the attention all that way with mostard out with aan back banged up Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Wadd are the two main threats right now and I expect Tyreek Hill to get all the attention maybe a couple bracket work there allowing for Wadd so long as he could stay healthy to uh you know go over this number based on his actual number at hand it's like 64 65 and half of the market if you get 70 plus it juices up our parlay you know over a 100 odds in general and the Bill's pass defense I don't think is anything special week one 18th and dvoa 20th to the wide two so plus money to add us with bills against the spread Billy Third Leg you mentioned helps juice us the parlay where you headed there yeah I'm going with Josh Allen to throw an interception at minus 140 check out the article I did which is slightly or mostly similar on this parlay a little bit different I noted in there the bills were eight and six in regular season games where he threw an interception last year so you know one more than they lost it's also notable that was just the regular season so he threw an interception in 14 of 17 regular season games the real key here though is that we get way better odds on Allen to throw an interception parlayed with the bill spread than we would with the dolphin spread of course that makes sense right throwing an interception doesn't help your team win I think just the movement and the odds from the books is way too big and then especially when we pair that with a pro Dolphins pick I really like that on your side you know when we were talking about this before the show I said give me something you like on the Dolphins that one makes a ton of sense I expect it to be a high-scoring game you could even throw the over in there that's what I did in the article to Juice It Up even further but we're in a pretty good spot with these three since they're all kind of negatively correlated at least in terms of the odds yeah so obviously you mention it you have an article every Monday Thursday in addition to hopping on here on green. daily and we just give a we unveil the curtain just a little bit and you giving out a couple of picks I get to you know throw in my two cents which might not be as good as you know your you and your analitical mind but that's the three leg parlay we got Wadd alt 70 plus Josh Allen int Bill spread if you parlay that together right now 7 plus 750 over at DraftKings Billy how you feeling with this one I know it's been a little hard trying to handicap with no running back props from Miami but I think this one's pretty solid yeah I'm glad you mentioned the running back props I went with a running back prop in the article then now it seems a little bit better like a Chan's going to play really like your contribution here again if the running backs are banged up it totally makes sense that they go to the wide receivers more and also just for you know the sake of our sanity not trying to predict running back Health on a Thursday afternoon game with NFL teams not being super forthright with that at least so far this year yeah we saw that with mcaffrey now we're getting the same thing with Miami what happens at least we're not talking about Sunday Night Football on a Friday trying to figure out injury news regarding that but just a reminder plus 750 for the three legs of Allen int bills plus two and a half and Jaylen W 70 plus yards you can concoct that however you so please if you want to take some other alt lines but Billy before we let you go it's you also handicap UFC uh you do a weekly video every Friday over at the Action Network YouTube channel huge card UFC 306 and obviously the headliner sugar show Shan Ali Against morab the Machine dwes I need to know your best bet for this one cuz I personally I love to watch sugar show work I'm hoping that he can win I know the money's come in but you in particular might be like you know this line movement getting a little too uh far out of hand yeah I mean you even saying that kind of sets up my justification which is a lot of people that don't watch a ton of UFC know sha oy and are probably betting on Sha oy dalla feely opened up at like minus 150 at books that posted early now he's plus 114 we have research that shows the books tend to beat the public in situations like that the fighter that was originally favored wins more than half the time um the big thing for me though is let's wait as close to Saturday to make that bet as possible because there's going to be a ton of sugar Shan fans coming in Friday night Saturday afternoon even as the card starts betting on sugar so biggest thing is the line movement I was also really impressed by Dy when he couldn't get a takedown against Jose Aldo kind of winning a fight just by making it dirty beating him up against the fense that would be a really good strategy against a tall long Striker like ali uh but yeah you know we're going to do a much more in-depth breakdown Sean and I tomorrow so check that out on our YouTube page yeah so obviously a reminder the UFC 306 every fight a lot of Best Bets heading over there between Shan zerillo and Billy Ward and Billy that's such an interesting stat I want to just resay it again Fighters that open as a favorite and then closing as an underdog winning over 50% of the time is something uh is actually really interesting and it's it's it yeah it's going against everything in my bones right now to be like man I might be sitting down on Saturday with a morav dwell fely ticket but you know that's why I I look at you for advice and not just you know me looking at the uh candy the cotton candy hair of Shaun Ali and all his Antics but uh Billy Ward appreciate you hopping on let's cash this SGP and have a great weekend with the fights my [Music] [Applause] friend you know what time it is it's Thursday Night Football I can't let you go without me going toe-to-toe with this loser this wheel I'm going to give out my best bet if this is your first time here the wheel is going to give out its best bet out of random we put eight random props here for the wheel to choose from a reminder if you missed Monday's show and we want to recap it a little bit the wheel had a flat tire it went 0 and one with George KD failing to go over what a dumb dumb wheel and then me one and0 I mean spectacular performance out of myself and Debo Samuel in particular maybe we had a little help with mcaffrey getting hurt and all that but Debo Flew Over the rushing and receiving yards so I got to leg up on this stupid little thing over here my best bet for tonight Bills Dolphins I'm going with James Cook rushing and receiving yards you heard me when I was talking about it with Brian Matthews I think vume is King here and James Cook is going to absolutely Chef up a performance in his homecoming opportunity in South Florida I'm expecting if tank bsby can rush for a lot of yards against the Dolphins defense that James Cook will have no problem and he's also dynamite in the passing game as well figure 20 plus touches you figure about four yards a touch he's going to go over this number he should at least have at least one or two explosive opportunities so my best bet is James Cook over the wheels turn to go 0 and two Dalton concade over 432 yards is the wheels best bet to byow spot on D King K but are teams like the Arizona Cardinals bracketing the tight end because well that's the main option in this Buffalo Bills offense it'll be interesting to see a little another one he the wheel went tight end with George KD in week one or in Monday Night Football now it's going back to the tight end well I don't know if the wheel's ever going to learn to maybe look somewhere else but I'm going James Cook rushing receiving staying with the combo while the wheel goes with dton King Cade on receiving yards we'll see how this one pans out in Thursday Night Football and just a reminder that any pick we give out here on the show like James Cook you'll be able to track that in the Action Network app all of our picks are there at the handle green. daily once again it's in the awardwinning Action Network app at the handle green. daily that's going to be all for me on this Thursday we're back here tomorrow to break down the rest of the week 2 NFL slate maybe a little bit of baseball and college football to get some rest guys enjoy the game tonight because 5 days of football starts today and joy and I'll see you again tomorrow at 3 Eastern [Music] [Music] [Music]