KCTV5 Weather Update

e hi everyone all right good Wednesday 7:14 right now I've got a live look for you quiet it's beautiful over the plaza we've got blue skies up top but we are watching for some storms on the way tonight I think most of us will get storms and some of them could be on the strong side so we're going to walk through that I I'll give you the timeline when you can expect them show you the latest forecast data we've got the forecast radar for you where the storms are now and we have a severe thunderstorm watch in effect at this very Point too I've got the Facebook stream up if you've got questions or comments shoot them to me let me know I'll try to answer as many as I can and let's get to it all right right off the top there it is our severe thunderstorm watch now this goes until 1:00 in the morning it does include Kansas City and points north and west so this means that within that blue box some uh storms could be strong or produce severe level winds or hail maybe even a few tornadoes a brief tornado warning can't be ruled out so uh we're going to go through the towns here everybody so stick with us and and we'll look at it all now that's the watch that we have now here's what we're tracking let see if I can get this to go there we go line of storms is in Kansas and Southeast Nebraska and it's already pretty well organized there is a little Gap in between U but lining out into a fairly well organized line of storms the strongest right now are over here by beatric and Marysville just west of Wheaten we do have one storm there that's rotating so it's got a tornado warning on it uh and that's not for our coverage area but we do have storms out there that are spinning and that's probably the greatest chance for storms to want to spin is early I'm thinking Before Sunset and they're kind of by themselves you see how that one's got that break to the South where there are no storms to steal its energy from the south so it kind of grabs all the air uh and ingest That Into the Storm itself once they turn into one big solid line which is what I think they're going to do later on tonight then they kind of interact with each other and it's not as favorable for tornado development so I don't think we have a big tornado threat but Northwest Missouri northeast Kansas we're going have to watch this just to see as they get closer to our area could we have a few warnings it's possible few tornado warnings is what I'm talking about so when can you expect them Well Northwest Missouri this is going to be after 8:00 you're going to get into them first they're going to come in out of that line that we just showed you so really from about oh as early as 8 more likely 9 10:00 up till about 11 midnight it's going to be your time frame there I'm looking at Maryville St Joe Ates places and the yellow shading that you see and then for the orange zone that includes the Kansas City metro this is going to be after 10:00 more likely around midnight but as early as about 10: and then for the southeast in the Red Zone that's going to be after midnight probably after 1:00 in the morning so uh Kansas City Kansas yeah we're going to be looking at after probably 10 o'clock probably near midnight so you'll see it here in just a second in fact let's take a closer look at when I expect storms in Kansas City again our evening here it's quiet it's beautiful out there right now it's going to take a while for these storms to get to us they're not moving all that fast so we'll keep it mainly dry up until about 11: by 11: nearly as early as 10: we'll put a first warn the spotlight hey time to start paying attention but this is an overnight event for Kansas City a late night event so a lot of us will probably be in bed it'll be a good idea to keep your phone on and charged might lose power in some spots tonight we'll see uh and you would get alerts if there were a storm that were severe and you wanted to be alerted to that so watch the chance really Spike by midnight we're at 90% again I think a lot of us get storms tonight some of them could be strong and kind of bad um first warn to highlight that through about 5:00 in the morning after 5: we should really be done in Kansas City and if you're east of Kansas City maybe not the case but I think for the commute for back to school for the bus stop all that stuff tomorrow morning probably going to be okay mainly overnight could be noisy could be waking us up so one of the other things I want to highlight here is the rain could see quite a lot of rain out of this an inch two two and a half not out of the question it's pretty good line that's going to be coming through so let's see what else do we have are there going to be more warnings for plat and Clay County it's possible we don't know where the warnings are going to go yet all right we don't know because the storms are too far west how how well organized are they going to be for warnings meaning severe weather is ongoing that's kind of an in the- moment scenario and that won't be until later on tonight I'm checking some of the comments here uh my weather radio may be going off yes uh Tong and oxy uh will get hard uh we'll see so this is the view right now again it's great outside it's humid it's very humid um feels like 96 feels 10 degrees hotter than the actual temperatures it only got to the upper 80s today check out the heat index in spots Ottawa got to 100 and 17 degree heat index we were looking to get crazy humid in Kansas City it didn't quite make it to the Metro with a really high humidity so our Peak heat index was 98 but just Southwest 110 112 115 117 they really got into it so you can still see that Ottawa still feels like 114 Garnett 115 103 in Peola it just didn't quite get crazy humid here in Kansas City but still it's an awfully muggy night so this is probably what you want to see most the forecast track as we line out these storms and time them so it does a good job of tracking that line of storms to our West watch as we go forward in time I'll pause it for you here by 9: so we're about an hour 45 minutes away so Maryville Ates St Joe could get into some storms maybe some strong ones we'll see and this is by midnight so this is 12: in the morning uh so 11 midnight now if you look at this closely what you're going to notice is a lot of this is yellow and orange I think the bulk of us just get standard run-of-the-mill summertime thunderstorms but if you look at the dark Reds the blacks even those are small pockets of stronger cells that could produce some severe weather so it's not it's going to be isolated I don't think everybody's going to get severe weather it's not what we're saying I think most of us again just get regular thunderstorms but some small pockets of maybe some hail and some high winds can't be ruled out even for Kansas City the greater chance is going to be north and west for those storms when they're a little bit stronger as they move toward us and then they're going to be kind of on a weakening Trend but still probably fairly Stout okay so there's midnight Let's Roll It Forward I'll take it to about 5: in the morning and notice Kansas City on the backside may still have some stragglers uh but if you're in Harrisonville warnburg Clinton early morning you may still have some storms ongoing so let's see what else we have well this break down our humidity in Kansas City tomorrow's still pretty humid we're waiting on a front that's going to come through and that'll knock the humidity down by Thursday evening Thursday night the tornado chance in Gladstone and Liberty is pretty low uh it's not zero but it's pretty low um yes turn your Noah weather radio on first war five weather app you get all the alerts there when is a severe weather season ever going to be over I hear that this has been one crazy severe weather season I mean this spring was number two and number three in Kansas and Missouri um and into the early summer so that's for forecast track I imagine a lot of us this is really what we want to know so let's go back and do this one more time so there's the evening all right so 9:00 watching them enter from the Northwest again they come in from the Northwest so Maryville St Joe Ates first probably won't be till after 11 or so that we get them in Kansas City most of us just get sto I think a lot of us get storms tonight but only small pockets of severe level is what we're looking at that's those small areas of the bright Reds the dark blacks that you see where you could get some hail some high winds and then they blow Eastward so most of us get it you saw that forecast track and there's the morning and it's clearing out for Kansas City but ongoing south and east most likely early in the morning so the bus stop in the Metro will look pretty good again 75 I think we're going to be dry driving to work should be dry then we catch a break and much of Tomorrow will be dry and we go to the upper 80s it's still humid it feels like a 100 give or take heat index is still up there here's another look at the heat index it'll be about 100 102 103 some of us in the upper 90s and then there is a chance for another round this would be tomorrow evening now this this round is much more scattered and broken up not nearly as confident that we will get this in any one particular spot you're going to have a higher chance north of Kansas City and this is what radar could look like by six so if you have evening plans tomorrow you know soccer practice little league practice whatever's going on evening plans could potentially have some storms from 600 till about oh we'll say 5: to 10: is really the timeline there and some of these could be strong too now notice if you're south of I70 I don't think you're get much here but if you're KC I70 North you've got a chance at it this one also has a level two out of five severe risk which is what we have today by the way it's a severe wind and hail threat um I think it's going to be again very patchy but possible let's look at the rain chances here for tomorrow I'm going 40% so it's less than 50/50 odds but there's a chance that we get them in Kansas City if you're south of I70 slight chance 20 30% chance if you're north of I70 going toward Cameron chilicothe that's where you've got a better than 50-50 chance that you get into some of those storms tomorrow evening doesn't necessarily mean severe but they could be here's your 7day then we're going to go through this all again uh after we're past tomorrow evening weather looks pretty good all right so the front comes through storms will stop and the humidity comes down so by Friday feeling better upper 80s it's dry your weekend looks really good there is a low chance for a shower but I don't think we're going to get it it's just a slight chance on Sat Saturday I think our weekend's dry mid 80s low humidity and and then it's quiet into next week so that's the breakdown let me check this again on uh our I'm just checking my phone for the Facebook feed uh how is uh Kansas City Kansas near the Legends looking you're going to get storms I'm pretty confident of that it's probably going to be roughly 10: to midnight for the start time there could be strong all right so let's see what else we have if you like this weather has been too good to be true with these warm fall temperatures it's been pretty nice here lately with brief little hot spells all right and was there a Noah weather radio outage a few minutes ago you know the Kansas City uh National Weather Service office is having Communications issues tonight in fact the Louisville Kentucky uh weather service department is monitoring the weather for Kansas City tonight so the National Weather Service is who issues all the the warnings uh but radar is giving us issues there's some problems there um just so you're aware of that there may be some funk key type of communications issues tonight because of this uh error that that they're having there that's not on the Kansas on the KCTV 5 side it's actually on the warnings issue side from the National Weather Service so that's something that we're going to keep in mind tonight you may have some weird alerts that go off uh will this be widespread severe weather for Casey MO no I don't think it'll be widespread severe weather I think it'll be widespread storms with pockets of severe weather um so small areas could get under those intense cells the most intense cells but those will be confined to just small areas and that's where we could see some of that hail and that high wind so let's go back to the top I'm just going to rewind my show and for those of you that are just joining us we're going to walk through everything and we'll do this one more time again Facebook feed is up if you've got questions just shoot them to me okay so we're back up at the top how strong could the winds be really about 60 you know I'm not looking at at an 80 m per hour wind threat not a likely you know never say never in severe weather because storms can kind of behave they're you know they're very chotic but just looking at the general atmosphere I think 60 MPH uh winds would be possible could get some quarter siiz hail maybe a little larger but the big hail the bigger wind the higher tornado risk is really centered to where the storms are now which is in in Kansas in Northern Kansas if you're you know in Atcheson County in Kansas you got a higher chance than we do in KC if you're up in nway County Holk County you got a higher chance than we do in KC of getting more severe weather all right so let's see what else we have is there going to be a tornado warning we don't know we don't know that there there there's one to our West now uh probably not for Kansas City we're kind of you can see we're on the edge of a severe thunderstorm watch that's what I'm showing you here the blue box is a severe thunderstorm watch if the odds were high enough then this would be a tornado watch high enough for you know odds were high enough for tornadoes it's not a high chance but there is a chance that storms want to rotate tonight especially again north of Kansas City generally we're looking at a severe weather chance where we could get the hail the high winds that's what we're most concerned about that's why this U watch is an effect severe thunderstorm watch until 1:00 in the morning all right so we're asking about Belton whatever your city is we're going to go through everything again and see if uh Belton you've got a lower chance you know you're kind of on the South Side so not zero but lower so here's what we have on Doppler right now line of storms this what we're tracking this what's going to move our way the strongest batch is this cluster that's up here in uh so this line goes all the way from northeast Kansas down into Central Kansas and parts of that are severe but the strongest right now is over here in just east of beatric and Southeast Nebraska there is a tornado warning right there by wheen as I I was showing you earlier when the storms don't have anything to their South look at where the tornado warning is it's on the south of that cluster of storms that allows it to uh not have interaction with storms around it it's kind of all by itself it's got storms to the north but really what matters is to the South it can grab all that air and kind of Spin and uh that's why it's got tornado warning on it is it is rotating so those are the ones that we watch most closely the bottom of the line that's what you watch uh we're thinking that this is going to turn into more of a solid line as it moves our way and as it does that that tornado threat will drop off uh lower not zero but lower the Yellow Boxes there's a lot of severe thunderstorm warnings here that's for ping pong ball siiz hail I got some pretty good size hail in some of those storms so back to when you could expect storms as early as after 8:00 in the yellow zone marville St Joe Ates all right so you could get some early storms it's probably going to be about 9: really uh is is the best chance 9 10:00 for that zone for the orange Zone Kansas City everybody in the orange Zone chilicothe Richmond OA you'll be looking at after 10: probably closer to midnight and then to the southeast in the red you're looking at after midnight 1:00 in the morning so for a lot of this this is going to be a nighttime while we're sleeping type of event and if um you want to have alerts again Noah weather radio first warn 5 weather app uh you we get all the alerts are going to all come to you and uh it's totally free it's got forecast radar it's got radar it's got everything you need so uh good thing to have there for tonight closer look at storm timing in KC this is specific to Kansas City I think we're dry through the rest of the daylight hours it's not until after really probably 11: that's where we put the first one on still I think 11 40% less than 5050 odds in Kansas City it's getting close though so first war highlights hey this is where we're paying attention midnight 1 two 3 90% odds I'm pretty confident that we get storms during that time meaning rain some Thunder a lot of this most likely will just be General summertime thunderstorms for the bulk of us um by five they're starting to scoot away from Kansas City heart of the commute out at the bus stop in the morning I think we're going to be fine I think they're out of here in Kansas City so something else I want to show you is the rain potential here it could be a pretty good rain maker uh not everybody's going to get heavy rain but most of us will get rain but In Pockets we could get inch inch and a half two inches so pretty good Soaker we've had a lot of rain this week so there we are now this is a live view out over the Blue Hills Country Club it is humid pretty humid out there although not as bad as it was looking um it was looking to be even more humid so 86 feels like 96 it got up to 117 heat index in Ottawa my goodness Garnett you were right there too at 115 the most humid air was just Southwest of KC so we had a heat advisory for today thinking it was going to hit one 105 didn't quite get there in Kansas City but boy we got it NOA and Lawrence and Peola and Ottawa and Laine you guys just got hit hard with the humidity in the heat okay so back to forecast track timing out these storms before I get there let's see if there's any other questions will it go as far south as Harrisonville yeah I think so I think uh for for storms I want to be specific here in delineating between storms and severe weather Harrisonville um you're not in the severe thunderstorm watch doesn't mean it couldn't get extended Ed you know that that line of storms it could stay together and stay organized and that watch get extended but honestly what as I see this I think what we're going to see is widespread rain and thunderstorms with pockets little small areas confined to small zones where we could get some little areas of hail and and winds to 60 miles per hour okay so let's go ahead so we're on forecast track I'm showing you exactly what we see behind the scenes this is the best computer forecasting meteorology that you can get it's called the HR weather model it's a really good model it's designed for for thunderstorms like this this is where it really excels so this is behind the scenes kind of stuff that we're showing you here there It Is by 9ine and entering mville Ates you know places in Northwest Missouri northeast Kansas is where it will start and then as we get closer to midnight watch that line expand okay so this is probably where it gets going in Kansas City midnight give or take an hour um Bethany Cameron Lawrence that's that timing that I showed previously now look closely and look at the colors here all right so the color is generally yellow and orange indicating thunderstorms you know rain good rain but it's not until you get into the blacks the really bright Reds and the purples that we would monitor for severe weather and what I the reason why I show you that is look at how small those areas are I don't see widespread bright colors on the forecast radar because the Atmosphere by that point it doesn't look as favorable for widespread severe weather only in small zones is where we could see some of that hailen high winds and once it's past Kansas City this thing's on a weakening Trend and a lot of that's just going to be thunderstorms so we're asking about Harrisonville warrenburg Clinton sadelia right now it doesn't look like severe weather not saying it's impossible but we don't have a watch there it looks like thunderstorms I think you're going to get some good rain this is 5:00 in the morning notice it's east of Kansas City you may wake up to storms south and east of Kansas City and then by 7 o' 8:00 I think it's pretty well cleared the area uh all right so what else do we have there's there's the bus stop forecast tomorrow tomorrow 75 think we're going to be okay for the kids at the bus stop and drive them to work let's see what else do we have uh Ates in Kansas uh aeson you're because you're on the northwest side of our coverage area storms have a higher chance of being stronger there uh doesn't mean you're guaranteed to get severe weather it just means that you have a better shot at it so uh in aeson I'd be I'd be paying attention this evening um 9 10 o'clock especially um let's see what else do we have all right okay so let's go to this is tomorrow much of tomorrow we're going to catch a break we're going to be in the upper 80s it's still humid feels like about a 100 give or take and the peak hey of the day something like that so triple digit is pretty good bet and then there is another round of storms this will be the last round for a while that we're going to watch for tomorrow evening 6 o'clock to 10 we'll say 5 to 10 um better shot Kansas City and North so some of these could be on the strong side but it's much more broken this is not like a solid line like we're looking at tonight this is more busted up and Scattered but we could have some strong sells in there so there's 9:00 notice Kansas City kind of on the tail end of that but we could get clipped keep that in mind for your evening plans for tomorrow there is a level two out of five risk for that and severe winds and hail is the primary threat there so we're going to watch that the higher chances though are certainly along and north of I70 Kansas City 40% you know less than 50-50 odds I think we would just get grazed by it but we've got a chance Bethany Cameron chicoy more confident that you get it south of I70 odds are lower does doesn't mean zero it just means at this point it looks lower and one more look at that 7-Day once we're past Thursday we are on Easy Street humidity drops off we're drier everything looks great for a long time too Friday and your weekend are fantastic uh mid 80s for Saturday and Sunday we've got the Chiefs game out of Arrowhead think it's going to be good for that not too worried about that 20% rain chance I think we'll stay dry and in next week we look dry too with mid 80s holding so that's the latest that I have for you um that forecast radar that I showed you that updates constantly and I'll have new information coming up at 10:00 by 10:00 it'll probably be knocking on the doors of uh Kansas City to our Northwest so I think we're going to be tracking it by that point and we may have some warnings by that point we will see how well that line holds together it's always a question mark with storms and severe weather but the chance is there so join us at 10 o'clock if you want an update on what the rest of the night looks like and even into tomorrow morning if any of that changes we're going to be totally transparent and I'll show you everything that I see and it may change and if it does I will show you all of that before I leave let's see what else we have on Facebook um I bet it's after 9: tonight when we get more warnings yeah I agree with that generally that's when it's entering our area so everybody thank you so much for joining us uh I hope that this helped you that's always the goal uh again bottom line is I'm expecting storms for most of us tonight there's a chance that some of them are strong to severe not widespread severe weather but in small Pockets I think that's the big takeaway and be a good night to stay aware it's probably going to be noisy tonight so hopefully we get good sleep we will see we'll see you at 10:00 have a great evening stay safe thanks for joining us