Speaker 1: Well, if you're hearing me
right now, it's because you made it. We made it to Debate Week 2024 again with the
candidates that, as far as we know, today, will be on the November ballot. Tomorrow night
we will see the first and probably only debate between the Democratic presidential nominee,
the current Vice president, Kamala Harris, and the failed former president and perennial
Republican presidential nominee of sorts, Donald Trump. One thing we must acknowledge
is that if you look at the polls today, it seems as though Kamala Harris's convention bump
has peaked. The polls have reversed, and it is now Donald Trump who is benefiting from some momentum.
Now, I know some of you will be mad at me. One of the things that's unfortunately too common in
this wacky world of online political discussion is a knee jerk reaction to attack the messenger.
When I said, you know, guys, I don't know that Biden can win anymore. I think the pressure is
such that he's going to step down, even though this was merely me objectively delivering what was
pretty apparently true. Many in my audience were furious. How dare I acknowledge this? I'm part
of the problem. I don't know why I sound like Alex Jones. Socialists. And all I was doing was
communicating what was going on. And likewise, we saw a reversal in the polling in Kamala Harris's
favor, going from losing the national polling to winning by a fraction of a point, to winning
by a point, to winning by a point and a half to winning by almost two points. And now we have seen
things decidedly reverse in the national polling. Donald Trump has gained back half of points. And
if you look at the trend lines, there is you know, we look at the trend lines. Where does the red
and blue line go? Line go up. Line go down. And we have seen a reversal where Kamala Harris is.
Polling seems to be coming back down. Donald Trump's is going up concurrently. Nate Silver's
forecast gives Trump the top odds of winning in November that he has had since Kamala Harris
became the presumptive nominee. So this is a reversal. Now, as many of you know, and for
those of you that don't know, I'll tell you, the American presidential election doesn't depend
on the national popular vote. I wish it did, but it does not. We have an electoral college,
and most likely this is an election that will come down to 100,000 to 250,000 votes in 3 to 5 states.
Those states are likely to be the following states. And I will tell you what the polling looks
like in those particular states right now, because I'll be honest with you, whether Kamala Harris
wins by one, five, 15 or 25 in California, she's going to get California's electoral votes. It's
baked in. It's not going to affect the outcome of this election. On the other hand, Arizona just
might you might remember that in 2020, President Biden won Arizona. Well, Donald Trump is building
a lead in Arizona now by an average of 1.6 points. That would be a change from 2020, a state that
Trump lost then that he is potentially on track to win right now in Nevada, where Biden won. Harris
is holding a lead, but it's half a point doubling in Wisconsin, which Biden won. Harris has a point
and a half lead, and that's sort of looking okay. Michigan. Harris with more than a one point
lead that's looking okay. But Pennsylvania, which Joe Biden did win in 2020, is a flat out
tie. You've got a couple polls that have it as a flat tie. A couple that say Trump are winning, one
that says Harris is winning, although it appears to be an outlier. Pennsylvania is currently tied.
North Carolina, Trump has a lead. I'll I'll tell you the fact that North Carolina is in play is is
very good for Kamala Harris and not so good for Donald Trump. Georgia right now, Harris is winning
by one tenth of a point. That's a state that Joe Biden won. And right now, the Real Clear Politics
map has it as a win for Harris, but barely a win for Harris with only 273 electoral votes. The
change here from 2020 is that RCP is currently giving Arizona and. Sylvania to Trump. Those are
two states that, Joe Biden won in 2020. If you start with this map, you very quickly see, well,
if Georgia were to go Trump, that means Trump wins. If Nevada were to go Trump, that means that
Donald Trump wins. If Michigan were to go Trump, that means that Donald Trump wins. Now, of
course, there is still very much a possibility that Harris carries Pennsylvania. That's a much
better scenario for Trump. But needless to say, that's the scenario in which in which it could
actually end up coming down to New Hampshire, which we've talked about before. So what is the
point here? The point is not, wow, we're gonna lose. No, the point is also not. Hey, guys. It's
over. Kamala Harris has got this. We don't have to call anybody. We don't have to ask people.
Hey, by the way, you're planning to vote right now. The scenario is whatever the momentum felt
like in those first ten days of Kamala Harris, you've got to forget about that. And you have to
recognize that Republicans have dirty tricks up their sleeve. We have an electorate in this
country that I'm so sorry. I have to say this. There are a lot of really ignorant people
welcoming the propagandizing that is going on. They're like, I don't know, should I vote for
the one who has the middle class genuinely in mind? Or the civilly liable rapist convicted felon
who only has himself in mind, and giving discounts on taxes to which rich donors and humiliates
us on the world stage? There's people who are actually saying, I don't know what I would
pick between those two options. I'm sorry, these are really wacky people, but that doesn't
mean they can't get Trump elected again. So that's where we are right now. Plus, 1.9 may have been
the peak for Kamala Harris that we talked about Post-convention convention. She's backed off of
that lead by about half a point. What we now wait for is tomorrow night's debate. And of course,
the downside risk to both candidates if tomorrow goes really poorly for either candidate.
That could very much shake up the polling.