BREAKING: POLLS REVERSE, TRUMP GAINING AGAIN!

Speaker 1: Well, if you're hearing me  right now, it's because you made it. We   made it to Debate Week 2024 again with the  candidates that, as far as we know, today,   will be on the November ballot. Tomorrow night  we will see the first and probably only debate   between the Democratic presidential nominee,  the current Vice president, Kamala Harris,   and the failed former president and perennial  Republican presidential nominee of sorts,   Donald Trump. One thing we must acknowledge  is that if you look at the polls today,   it seems as though Kamala Harris's convention bump  has peaked. The polls have reversed, and it is now   Donald Trump who is benefiting from some momentum.  Now, I know some of you will be mad at me. One of   the things that's unfortunately too common in  this wacky world of online political discussion   is a knee jerk reaction to attack the messenger.  When I said, you know, guys, I don't know that   Biden can win anymore. I think the pressure is  such that he's going to step down, even though   this was merely me objectively delivering what was  pretty apparently true. Many in my audience were   furious. How dare I acknowledge this? I'm part  of the problem. I don't know why I sound like   Alex Jones. Socialists. And all I was doing was  communicating what was going on. And likewise, we   saw a reversal in the polling in Kamala Harris's  favor, going from losing the national polling   to winning by a fraction of a point, to winning  by a point, to winning by a point and a half to   winning by almost two points. And now we have seen  things decidedly reverse in the national polling.   Donald Trump has gained back half of points. And  if you look at the trend lines, there is you know,   we look at the trend lines. Where does the red  and blue line go? Line go up. Line go down. And   we have seen a reversal where Kamala Harris is.  Polling seems to be coming back down. Donald   Trump's is going up concurrently. Nate Silver's  forecast gives Trump the top odds of winning in   November that he has had since Kamala Harris  became the presumptive nominee. So this is a   reversal. Now, as many of you know, and for  those of you that don't know, I'll tell you,   the American presidential election doesn't depend  on the national popular vote. I wish it did,   but it does not. We have an electoral college,  and most likely this is an election that will come   down to 100,000 to 250,000 votes in 3 to 5 states.  Those states are likely to be the following   states. And I will tell you what the polling looks  like in those particular states right now, because   I'll be honest with you, whether Kamala Harris  wins by one, five, 15 or 25 in California, she's   going to get California's electoral votes. It's  baked in. It's not going to affect the outcome   of this election. On the other hand, Arizona just  might you might remember that in 2020, President   Biden won Arizona. Well, Donald Trump is building  a lead in Arizona now by an average of 1.6 points.   That would be a change from 2020, a state that  Trump lost then that he is potentially on track to   win right now in Nevada, where Biden won. Harris  is holding a lead, but it's half a point doubling   in Wisconsin, which Biden won. Harris has a point  and a half lead, and that's sort of looking okay.   Michigan. Harris with more than a one point  lead that's looking okay. But Pennsylvania,   which Joe Biden did win in 2020, is a flat out  tie. You've got a couple polls that have it as a   flat tie. A couple that say Trump are winning, one  that says Harris is winning, although it appears   to be an outlier. Pennsylvania is currently tied.  North Carolina, Trump has a lead. I'll I'll tell   you the fact that North Carolina is in play is is  very good for Kamala Harris and not so good for   Donald Trump. Georgia right now, Harris is winning  by one tenth of a point. That's a state that Joe   Biden won. And right now, the Real Clear Politics  map has it as a win for Harris, but barely a win   for Harris with only 273 electoral votes. The  change here from 2020 is that RCP is currently   giving Arizona and. Sylvania to Trump. Those are  two states that, Joe Biden won in 2020. If you   start with this map, you very quickly see, well,  if Georgia were to go Trump, that means Trump   wins. If Nevada were to go Trump, that means that  Donald Trump wins. If Michigan were to go Trump,   that means that Donald Trump wins. Now, of  course, there is still very much a possibility   that Harris carries Pennsylvania. That's a much  better scenario for Trump. But needless to say,   that's the scenario in which in which it could  actually end up coming down to New Hampshire,   which we've talked about before. So what is the  point here? The point is not, wow, we're gonna   lose. No, the point is also not. Hey, guys. It's  over. Kamala Harris has got this. We don't have   to call anybody. We don't have to ask people.  Hey, by the way, you're planning to vote right   now. The scenario is whatever the momentum felt  like in those first ten days of Kamala Harris,   you've got to forget about that. And you have to  recognize that Republicans have dirty tricks up   their sleeve. We have an electorate in this  country that I'm so sorry. I have to say   this. There are a lot of really ignorant people  welcoming the propagandizing that is going on.   They're like, I don't know, should I vote for  the one who has the middle class genuinely in   mind? Or the civilly liable rapist convicted felon  who only has himself in mind, and giving discounts   on taxes to which rich donors and humiliates  us on the world stage? There's people who are   actually saying, I don't know what I would  pick between those two options. I'm sorry,   these are really wacky people, but that doesn't  mean they can't get Trump elected again. So that's   where we are right now. Plus, 1.9 may have been  the peak for Kamala Harris that we talked about   Post-convention convention. She's backed off of  that lead by about half a point. What we now wait   for is tomorrow night's debate. And of course,  the downside risk to both candidates if tomorrow   goes really poorly for either candidate.  That could very much shake up the polling.