Monday 6PM Tropical Update: TS Francine forms, hurricane watch issued for Louisiana coast

Published: Sep 09, 2024 Duration: 00:04:16 Category: News & Politics

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All right. I've been watching the satellite imagery of tropical storm Francine and the center while it has been trying to get a bit better organized. It is certainly lacking in terms of thunderstorms around that center. Yeah, we've got these kind of extreme outer bands with some rainfall moving toward the Mexican coast. But also notice on our colorized satellite here, there is some dry air that is being entrained into the center and computer models don't always do a great job of ana analyzing that. So that does kind of play into the future forecast of the storm right now, though some heavy rain bands just off the coast of Mexico and even some showers moving toward the Brownsville area. Now, as mentioned, there wasn't a big change in the latest advisory at four o'clock other than a little bit of a jog toward the west and an increase in the strength that landfall. We will know for certain notice how it's going to take more of a north easterly turn during the day tomorrow. Exactly when that turn occurs will likely determine almost precisely where the storm makes landfall. We'll probably see some wobbles back and forth but we definitely saw a little bit of a shift in the models and an increase in the intensity. Now, there were models that were already leaning toward a category two potential and we were already at kind of the high end of a one at landfall. So it wasn't out of the realm of possibilities. And certainly within reason that we could see this as a two at landfall sometime midday, Wednesday, actually a little bit earlier than what the models were at one time. Thinking. Now with that mention of the computer models, that's when we saw before the four o'clock advisory, this notable track or notable shift in the track a little bit more west. Right now, we find the cone uh kind of at least the models on the western side of that. If the models maintain around this position before the 10 o'clock advisory, I would venture to say we will see another shift in the model cone for the forecast cone before the 10 o'clock advisory. The seven o'clock advisory are just the new stats on the storm. We don't a new forecast until 10 pm. Winds around the center are at about 20 gusting up to 30 miles an hour. So at the moment, good, we only find the strongest winds right near the center of the storm, not in some of those outer bands. We also have a few other things going in our favor. I've mentioned the dry air that's out to our west, even drier air and strong wind sheer to the north. This is a look at not only the wind shear but kind of the steering. What the storm is doing is it's following the extreme periphery this high, which is centered a little bit more for Cuba, which would be great is if this high pushes a little bit more to the west, that would push the track even farther to the west as well. And that's certainly a possibility. But note as it gets into early Wednesday morning, the storm is going to encounter some very strong winds here and not only that even drier air that will start trying to really work its way into the center. So the big question is going to be during the night tonight and tomorrow, how strong is it able to get before it's starts to encounter the dry air and wind shear? If it's a well established category two would likely be a two at landfall. If it is still struggling before landfall, it may be weakening at the point of landfall. So that is all very much in the possibilities of the forecasted track and intensity of the storm. And as we have said before, the intensity is a very difficult part of the forecast. The track is a little bit more known because we can kind of see and get a better understanding of the outer steering. It's that internal engine of the storm that makes the intensity so difficult, but it does look like we will start to see that dry air really taking hold that landfall and that dry air will be placing its, uh or making its way over Southeast Louisiana and coast of Mississippi. So we may get more breaks in that rainfall when we're expecting much of our shower activity to pick up on Wednesday. That'd be great news. As far as the winds go, the wind field has to be kind of figured out with the storm kind of in intensifying or strengthening. Now, we could start to see some of those stronger winds and at times, maybe winds sustained at 30 to 40 miles an hour and gusting, I think more likely up to about 50 or 60 miles an hour rainfall kind of secondary threat to the strong winds and coastal flooding that we will see. And we're looking at a fairly nasty couple of days before improving conditions starting late Wednesday, maybe some lingering showers early Thursday and then very quiet weather as we head into this coming weekend.

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