Monday 7PM Tropical Update: Latest tracking of TS Francine, impact to southeast Louisiana

The pressure come down a bit. Winds have remained the same at 65 miles an hour. And again, the track doesn't change until our 10 pm. Right now. We're looking at it somewhere west of Marsha Island. So kind of southwest of Lafayette, moving inland around one o'clock on Wednesday. All right, we, we know you're gonna keep watching it for us all through the evening. Thanks, Chris and thank you for watching the Wwl Louisiana News at 630. We'll see you back on channel four for the news at 10 and until then, have a great night and good evening. I'm chief meteorologist Chris Franklin. We do have the seven o'clock advisory on tropical storm Francine. Now, no dramatic changes. We did see the pressure fall a little bit. It had been at 996 now at 993. So it is still intensifying albeit very slowly. Uh, winds have remained the same. Now, the hurricane center is saying north northwest at seven miles an hour, but the coordinates at 21.1 north and 96 0 west, the four o'clock coordinates were 24.0 and 90 6.0. So really, it's moved only 1/10 of a degree north. So it's not really moving much at all that is expected to change as we get into the day tomorrow. Something we've been watching on sad line. This is always very telling. We've got the dry air notice the lack of thunderstorms on the southern southwester and now even around the center of the storm, you have stronger convection, thunderstorms well removed from the center. So while we do have the bands setting up, we're not really getting that convection developing around the, which would indicate an intensifying storm. And while it certainly did get better organized during the day, last several hours, it has been waning a bit with that. Now, dry air, we'll see if that is able to hold on. Now, during the day, tomorrow is really gonna be what is telling we're still expecting this to become a hurricane, possibly late tonight or early during the overnight hours, early morning tomorrow. By tomorrow, midday and afternoon, it should begin that path toward the northeast at that point. I think we're gonna see one if it's able to intensify to a category two and two. With that forward motion starting to increase, we will have a much better idea of exactly where along the Louisiana coast, we will see landfall and something I kind of need to actually widen out my little uh graphic here a bit. If I can, I just wanna highlight the fact that at Wednesday 1 a.m. it becomes a category two note 12 hours later, right before a landfall, it is still a category two. The thinking is if it is able to strengthen and maintain that strength, it may able to battle what is going to be increasingly hostile conditions along the northern gulf coast. Very dry air, strong wind shear all would help to rip apart a weaker storm. So if it is able to get stronger, it would likely maintain that strength. Important to note 100 mile an hour, 100 mile an hour winds here, it would not be strengthening right up to the point of landfall. It would likely kind of plateau or for a weaker storm maybe begin weakening before landfall. That is what we're hoping on. And really, we're not gonna know until we head into the day. Tomorrow. Tomorrow is gonna be the very telling point of what this storm's future is. We're always gonna wait for the next model series, whether they continue along this more western envelope of the forecast path, including the cone or the cone included. Right now. The models had been a little bit more dramatic and one thing we usually don't see from the hurricane center is dramatic shifts. They kind of take those into account in each model run. And so if this were to be maintained for the 10 o'clock advisory, tonight, I would venture to say we will see the cone shift again to the west if it happens. So we will see what these models do. And actually we're gonna get that information before 10 o'clock. So I'll be posting the models online on social media accounts to let folks know maybe what we're about to see from the Her center as far as the winds go. Again, those 65 miles an hour are really near the center or within some of those outer bands of some of the stronger storms and the buoys right now, though not too far away from the center, not really supporting those winds that are being maintained. So it looks like the wind field is still rather small and note on uh, water vapor, you see those bright intense storm tops, they have collapsed during the day today. One thing that is always telling with the tropical system is if we're able to get that nocturnal convection. In other words, do we see the flare up of thunderstorms during the night time and overnight hours? If that happens, then it is indicating it's a strengthening storm. But as I mentioned, we have an increasingly hostile environment as you near the Gulf coast. This is what we're gonna be encountering by Wednesday early morning. So if it's able to maintain a two or uh achieve a two, it may be able to kind of fight off this strong wind here as well as some very dry air, which at the moment is already kind of plaguing the storm, but even more so as it moves toward northern Gulf coast and with that dry air kind of becoming wrapped around on the southeastern and eastern side, that's the side that is really going to impact us. Not the core as we watch this motion, it again, if it stays a little bit more to our west, we are avoiding the worst part of the storm. And if we can get into this drier air, we would also see more breaks in the rainfall and maybe we don't see those higher rainfall totals that are right now. Estimated 4 to 6. It probably a whole lot less than that. I think one of the, one of the issues that will be our primary threat will be the winds depending upon the size of the windfield. We'll definitely see some tropical storm force if not sustained winds, then certainly wind gusts and that'll start probably early on Wednesday, continuing and peaking during the evening and night of Wednesday before the storm is then fared up to our north and it is weakening. So during the day, tomorrow, we'll have the winds picking up and certainly some rainfall but the strongest winds, the heaviest rain, the greater threat for storm surge will be on Wednesday as the storm which is just off to our west here starts picking up those winds inland and obviously a bit stronger. The farther west you go a little bit weaker farther east. So at the moment, the greater threat from even the stronger winds may be a little bit more removed to the west of Metro New Orleans. But I still think we're gonna see some wind gusts and as we know, it doesn't take much to get the power outages, these rainfall estimates. And I really, we call them estimates at this time, we'll have to see what that dry air, what the role plays in increasing, or it should say decreasing those rainfall totals. Again, another issue will be the storm surge. We will see those we uh uh uh heights above ground level. Most of us at about a foot above ground level and most of our coastal communities that everything outside of the hurricane risk reduction system, I think are going to be ok a little bit higher. Notice as it piles into the lake out towards say Saint John, toward around the Manac area. Uh um uh a little landing that is right around there and then also towards southern Tangy Madisonville, the uh Betao area and then also some pockets a little bit farther inland as some of that water starts racing up Terreon and Barretts area Bay toward the Houma area, probably about a foot down. A little bit more coastal Trebon would be the uh 3 to 6 ft and then more west of Morgan cities where we could see pockets of 9 ft obviously, as you get closer to Marsh Island and closer to where the center of the storm will be. So we are quiet on radar on a fairly quiet evening tonight, those rain chances start picking up along with a bit of a breeze during the day. Tomorrow, more rain, stronger winds and the coastal flooding concerns on Wednesday, this storm is gonna be very fast moving. This storm is not IDA. I know that was the last time we had a threat but this is not a repeat, completely different track, completely different storm, completely different environment. Ida had a perfect road to strengthening right to the point in Southeast Louisiana and a perfect road to continue intensifying. We don't find that with Francine at all. In fact, it has a fairly hostile environment that it's gonna have to overcome to really do anything in the next 36 hours and that really is gonna be the window we watch tonight and into tomorrow will be the best chance of it organizing if it's not able to, this should be a fairly weak storm at landfall. If it is able to, it will probably maintain that strength right up to the point in Southwester Louisiana's coastline. For now. We're going to uh kind of wrap things up here. We'll be watching this very closely. And as I said, follow me on social media because I will be posting the new model run before 10 o'clock. So before the hurricane center issues, their new track and we will see if that trend west where it continues. Or maybe if the models hold a little bit more to our west because again, that would allow for Southeast Louisiana to avoid the worst of the storm, which as of right now, it still looks like we would avoid the worst of the storm. I chief meteorologist Chris Franklin.