Tour Championship bets: Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark lead | Going for the Green | Golf Channel

welcome to going for the green I'm Brad Thomas here with Denny Carter and we are here the culmination of the golf season yes that is right the Tour Championship at East Lake the winner the FedEx Cup champion will be crowned come Sunday night hopefully barring no rain delay Denny how's it going for you man are you excited from a DFS perspective to get into this tournament you know the the staggered scoring system really throws a wrench into how you value these guys and uh it does give you some major fomo when you're when you start to fade the uh the upper tier players but you know it uh it makes it a little more fun a little more interesting I would say chaotic Brad pure chaos uh for those who don't know what Denny was referencing the golfers will start in a staggered scar which means they'll get an odds advantage or a handicap depending on where they're ranking in the FedEx Cup so basically I'll just go through a couple golfers Scotty Sheffer is going to start at 10 under Xander at 8 Under Dey at seven under Keegan at six ludvig at five and then we have a group of Rory morawa Clark Burns Klay all starting at 4 under I'm not going further down the list because the only golfer outside of Roy mroy no one's won this at three under or worse so you're thinking about any of those guys I just named have a realistic chance before I get into my golfer I want to let you know you know course history here has been pretty important but last year uh they did a intensive renovation of this golf course it's going to be very different right they even changed the greens to Bermuda they changed some of the cuts of the holes they moved holes they lengthened the course they changed it from a par 70 to a par 71 so it's going to be drastically different with still some of the similar sight lines while some have changed um naturally I probably would have just gone ahead and take Xander win this whole thing uh I think he's the most uh well-rounded golfer in the course uh in the field excuse me and he's played really well at this course but the odds just didn't entice me I'm actually going to take a different market for all three of my bets in this event I'm gonna take what's called winner without Strokes so it doesn't matter where their starting position is it's just the low 72 whole score out of my guys that I select doesn't matter and I'm going to start things off with a guy you guys have seen me bet quite frequently now in these past couple weeks and that's Mr Windham Clark I'm going to Windham Clark here he did let me down at the BMW Championship losing four strokes on approach but honestly he lost about five of those in the first round he's putting together a pretty good profile since uh the US Open he's finished T9 at Travelers T10 at the Scottish open uh t7 at at St judees but what's important about wind Clark is it's just been a slow starter each of his round ones have been pretty poor and then he's kind of mounted his comeback with this being a nocut event I think wendam Clark is someone that should be considered at this price it's also really important to note that I had a couple of parallels a lot of the TPC courses PGA National one of those good difficult ball striking Bermuda course courses wiam Clark plays them all pretty well right if we remember him playing really tough against Scotty shuffler made almost went to the playoff at uh TPC Saw Grass there for The Players Championship so wiam Clark if he can put it all together just one tournament I think he can have the low 72 score and at uh what 26 to1 I think that's a pretty good price the the home cooking didn't work for Windam Clark class in Colorado but uh it might it might work he might you know ship some of it here uh to where are they playing Florida uh they're playing in Atlanta in East Lake Atlanta Atlanta in Atlanta and uh we'll we'll see we'll see how he does my high my high price guy for DFS this week is gonna be is going to be the aformentioned Xander chafl uh look this is partly based on roster ship because I believe that Xander is going to have significantly lower roster ship then Scotty sheffler who again starts at 10 under Xander starts just two strokes back of sheffler and we saw some I don't know Jinx in the armor of Scotty Sheffer last week for the first time in maybe ever uh he lost Strokes on the Green in in the four of his past five outings he lost Strokes on approach last week Brad for the first time since I looked it up since August 2022 so this is quite the thing it headline grabbing material that Scotty sheffler was not great on approach last week so I think Xander's in in a a good spot here for several reasons he's second best in this field on approaches uh from over 200 yards that's measured over the past 30 rounds and you know look we want guys hitting the Fairway here okay this is the eighth uh uh eighth toughest course as far as hitting the Fairway goes um the adjusted Fairway rate is like 62% very tough stuff the the the rough is very Penal uh Xander's only hitting the Fairway at 62% clip that makes me a little nervous but I think that just the roster ship numbers say we we should consider Xander over Scotty chinking the armor you called it there for Scotty sheffler it's important to realize that Scotty sheffler has lost Strokes on the putting surface in four of his last six events not a good sign because when Scotty started to go on that crazy run which started at API he literally just was everything literally went on a run of like eight tournaments where he gained Strokes um I'm going to go with another really good Bermuda player here uh one of the better Bermuda putter on tour and that's Mr Sam Burns um my guy Sam Burns I think I said something about Sam Burns and a baby and if you look at like his his course stats his his tour stats during that time of of Strokes gained home life toughness he didn't perform well um but now it's starting to come together right like T12 at the 3M open T5 at the FedEx St juice T2 at the BMW Championship and three of those two of those events he was losing Strokes on uh off the te I think he can put that together at of course that's going to play a little bit I don't want to say a little bit easier that's not the right way but a little bit better for his sight line is a course like this it's funny I really do think this course is going to play well for those really good ball Strikers there's a stat that you should kind of remember here um no golfer has won this tournament without leading the field and strokes gained off the T So Burns will have to do well off the te but like I said this is going to play a little bit better than trying to gain Strokes off the tea uh where there's water everywhere in Colorado in the altitude now he's back at altitude playing at a course that he's familiar with so I like Sam Burns to to win without The Strokes again that is the low 72 hole score burns the hottest putter on tour over the past few weeks so he has that going for him my mid-price uh player for this week on DraftKings is going to be Tommy Fleetwood and it's mostly based on fleetwood's unbelievable ability to hit the Fairway uh over the past 24 rounds Tommy has hit the I call him Tommy because I know him personally Tommy's hit the the Fairway at a 75% clip it's really strong it leads the field by a good margin here among these top among these 30 players um you you got to do that to score here you just have to hit uh you have to hit the Fairway not the long longest guy of course but uh we can't be too picky here he starts by the way Tommy Fleetwood starts at one under nine Strokes off the lead again it's it's it's going to be hard to like stomach some of these mid-range and low price picks because of how far they start off but you know I you're not looking for Tommy Fleetwood to win this tournament you know like like you like you said Brad uh history suggests that he has no chance uh but he is he is a very hot coming into this thing he was a silver medalist at the Olympics uh top at the FedEx St Jude event and he was fifth last week uh at BMW he's fourth in ball striking among players at this event uh over the past three months just everything lines up for if Tommy Fleetwood can put okay I think he can make a run into you know maybe the top five here uh good news for you whenever I bet on Tommy Fleetwood he forgets how to play golf and I didn't bet on Tommy Fleetwood this week so I think you're in the clear well that's my process in all seriousness though Tommy Fleetwood is one of the better golfers when he's not in contention I I don't know what it is but if but history serves him correctly when he has no chance he's out there like 62 63 I feel like Tommy may not have that dog in him well I will have to see this week he'll have a dog check this week I'm gonna go with Mr Shane Lowry winner without Strokes again 50 to one and this is only drawn from the parallels that I've thought about at this course the first course I said the TPC courses but let me get a a little bit more exact right more of ball Striker Paradise that has about six to eight holes with water in play extra reward for strokes gting off the tea and hitting Fairways and then the further away you get from the Fairway the more trouble you're in what courses come to mind Bermuda I think I gotta think about Bay Hill and PGA National the bear trap there's no golfer in this world outside of Roy Roy who plays those two courses better than Mr Shane Lowry so if the course stickiness is such a thing I think Shane Lowry stands a really good chance I I mean he doesn't have to actually win the tournament he just has to go out there and post four really good rounds that's right hopefully he remembers how to putt this week he really he does kind of fluctuate between completely being lost on the not as Lo not as lost as ad Adam Scott was last week by the way oh my God it's been a long time since I've seen a pro golfer have zero confidence over a three-foot putt like we saw Adam Scott struggling with all right I'm going to give you my low price play Tom hogi is is listed at 6,100 on DraftKings only Matthew pavon is cheaper uh so you know we're getting we're getting crazy here we're getting we're going real low and look when when when you're a golf tout and you can tout uh the the worst putter in the field you got to do it and that's what I'm doing here with Tom hogi by almost every metric this guy is the worst putter of these of these 30s between him and and thala actually but his irons are on fire Brad Tom hogi is fourth among players in this field and proximity to the pin from the Fairway no one has gained more Strokes uh on approach in this field over the past 30 rounds you know you talked about a ball Striker's Paradise this guy is striping it if Tom if you're listening if you can make a few putts I think that you can do some pretty cool things here on this course yeah Tom hogi oh man Tom hogi is the Silent Assassin you feel like he always puts up these really good tournament and these good stat profiles but no one ever really talks about him and he's not winning uh but a good choice there at his price listen Denny it's been a fun golf season uh lots of wins lots of money made and a lots of smiles I appreciate you and everyone who's taking the time to listen to going for the green uh for Denny Carter I'm Brad Thomas have a good tournament in a good off season