🔥 Friday Fire: Sideways to Purgatory 😱

Introduction hey everyone it's Friday and Friday means Friday  fire day it's it's the the Friday show over the   last month or so is designed to rail us all in  and maybe depress us a little bit so it kind of   shows you how things are on fire sometimes in  a good way sometimes sounds in a bad way too   and August has sucked yes sleepy August we'll  get into that too we'll get into the sideways   Purgatory look get into why we may have a red  candle for the month of August that would be   the third month negative so far this year Bitcoin  rarely has four red negative months unless it's a   bare market so let's dig into it um market cap  has fallen a bit down to about 2.05 trillion   from 2.1 trillion Bitcoin just popped 700 bucks  in not too long a window it's up around 592 as   we speak and dominance about 56.4% fear and  greed is back down to 34 we're going to get   into a lot of stuff today we'll talk about how  the economy is in a shambles some great news   about Tesla H we'll talk about other good news  about salana other good news or bad news about   a chain where the fees are at almost alltime lows  but that's actually a bad thing not a good thing   and we'll talk about the Bitcoin black hole and so  much more thank you as well QC coiner by the way I   assume QC is from kibua let me know if I'm right  or wrong and Zeno and Sean Donley and everybody   out there in the family thank you for coming  today now this is financial advice and shout   out to patreon and the team behind me everybody  this is from music lover x21 says I'm proud to   be in patreon and so happy I found you well I'm  very happy I found you and everybody out there   here happy Friday let's get into the Bitcoin  black hole it's bit of a combo video I did a video   earlier today about the personas that actually  like Bitcoin and the results will Astound you but   anyway you probably would have seen that already  let's talk about the black hole and the month of   BTC ETFs Still up $277M for AUG August even though the last couple of days have  sucked the Bitcoin ETF still took in 2777 million   considering the average DCA amount for a retail  investor is like 20 to 50 bucks a week that's a   lot for a month anyhow let's look at what happened  though there was a little bit of a nasty surprise   IBIT second day of outflows Black Rock ibit had their second negative day  ever not good but it was a small amount and the   day yesterday was a little bit negative nothing  too hectic again people are on vacation uh in   the United States this week it I think on Monday  it's a thing called Labor Day I get my holidays   confused because I work every day so I don't  know about holidays but uh happy labor day if   I got that right to everybody in the us and we're  getting out of August I don't like sleepy Seasons   so I'm happy and Mike good to see you buddy  long-term holder let's get into some Bitcoin   charts a couple of interesting things to show  here first of all remember everybody everybody's   Post Halving - Rem we are only 9% In. like oh my God it's the bare Market already no  no no no no no no no no we're only 9% into the   next Epoch okay we have only completed 9%  of the having progress and some people are   losing hope losing their minds remember there  is Good Times ahead especially in an election   year especially in the latter half of the Year  especially in months like October November and   December which are historically the best months  for Bitcoin and I do believe although I say this   time is different I do believe we're still in  the bull market and the good stuff is yet to come   but remember we're still 4X off the bottom so  does that too let's talk about dominance shout   Dominance This Bull Run So Far! out to equinom metrics this short says it all  actually which supports my previous point if we   look at Bitcoin eth and alts Bitcoin is the orange  and boy somebody just spiled a huge can of paint   all over the place that is Bitcoin dominance  and it proves to you that the bull market has   not kicked off yet because if it is a typical  crypto Market cycle it means the blue stuff at   the bottom the old coins haven't kicked off yet  yes they're kind of stronger than they've ever   been before because of the use cases and yes we've  seen ethereum diminish from over 30% alltime High   dominance down to 14.87% right now as we speak  but it does show you that we are still in the   early stages of where things are going to go this  sequence of Bitcoin Stead rising and then now it's   56.4% dominance of the crypto market cap suggests  either an atypical Market cycle or that the real   Bull Run has not begun yet everybody thank you  Mike 39 again happy Friday everybody I'm so happy   everybody's here on a Friday night and not down  the pub anyway remember the anticipated old season   where old coins out perform Bitcoin has not even  started and again I mentioned that eth dominance   at a four-year low yesterday at that 14.87%  or something and it's down over 50% from its   alltime high and uh that is kind of an interesting  situation so we'll be tracking this very carefully   especially on OCTA and Tuesdays Gabrielle out  there in Czech Republic now shout out to all   One Lucky Bitcoin Miner Nails 6.25BTC the independent miners there's a few out there  on the audience I know you got your little rigs   running at home keeping the house warm noisy but  in Bitcoin we trust a lucky Miner just won the big   Bitcoin mining Lottery indeed a solo Miner managed  to mine a block of transactions on the Bitcoin   blockchain with very modest mining capacity he had  one or two machines I can't verify not as many as   in this photo but uh the capacity was 128 126 or  128 terahash a second which is only about I think 0.72% of the total Bitcoin hash rate which is  about 175 5,000 terahash I may be off by one Zer   it's either four zeros I think it's Zer 0.000000  72% of the total Bitcoin M rate and they nail 6.25   Bitcoin and that's nice little bag to pull out  anyway well done to him or her whoever did it   Power Law Wars Wage On and there's some interesting stuff it's funny  normally Bitcoin people kind of fight against   other people but uh this is from James Van  Stratton had to share but uh there's a lot   of talk all year about this power law stuff and  the power Law wages on and just so you know my   position and I am in touch with Giovani and Fred  and great great people okay James and Stratton   great person brilliant content all great people  but there's been a lot of infighting lately I   don't know why it is we should always love each  other and get along you know but uh James Van   Stratton spoke with Giovani for an hour yesterday  I appreciate all his work but I have concluded   that the power law cannot tell you what will  happen and it is a complete fallacy to think   so the questions I asked Gio which is for giovan  I don't believe the response was good enough for   me to change my mind so long detail stuff there  again shout out to James shout out to Gio shout   out to Fred love all you guys but we'll see  I personally I am a believer in medcast La   I've seen it work for decades in all sorts of  businesses all sorts of Investments it's a real   thing and that is the most important thing to a  network is the number of users not necessarily   the parallel and I have been working on a model  which takes elements of both and Compares them   to each other but I'm not finished because I've  been so busy doing other stuff that's way more   important than this but according to Gio though  good news for us who are going to be looking   Power Law Target for Dec is $99,902 forward to Christmas by December of this year  Giani believes that Bitcoin will hit get this $999,900 again we he believes we enter the bull  market in Earnest in November and pass the linear   regression line you see there on the chart so  we'll see what happens 100K is on the table   and we'll be here every day I'll even be here on  Christmas Day and I'll do a note to self to remind   myself to pull this chart up and see where we are  because it doesn't take a lot we're not that far   from the all-time high we've seen Bitcoin do$  5,000 $6,000 candles in a day not a problem to   get from say 738 to 100K not a big stretch and  a lot more special things have happened in the   past so we still have a little ways to go for the  end of the year it's almost September four months   left 16 weeks it's going to be fun I'm sure and  Bitcoin sideways Purgatory shout out to blockware   Bitcoin in ‘Sideways Purgatory’ as well um with macroeconomics and all the other  stuff that's going on in the macro we'll get into   that in a minute is nasty out there nasty but it's  been yet another week of extremely boring sideways   price action Bitcoin is down 7% this week it's  down 8.3 8.4% so far for the month of August and   this is what they call a dip for ants as it stands  we are just 9% of the way through the current   current having Epoch and this is bitcoin's worst  performance price wise at this point of the cycle   but we've yet to reach the point where significant  exponential growth is kicks in and blockware is   belief by the way that we will continue to trade  sideways for another month maybe and then we go up   into the election after the election Etc but this  time from this chart is different if you can zoom   into the little black piece at the bottom that's  the current cycle we are beneath all the four   previous epochs but all the other ones kicked off  definitely in the next month in the next three   months and the next six months it's going to be  fun so stick around and uh don't lose hope don't   lose hope I made a post yesterday on patreon I  talked about how it's a famous old saying but   the markets are a weapon to take money from  the impatient and give it to the patient so   everybody out there be patient that's an order  and short-term holder realize price is 63,000   STH RP at $63,000 we beneath that again and that sucks that is not  normal for us to be so long under this level in   fact if we go back to July first of July or end  of July to now we spent the majority over 80% of   the time under the short-term hold to realized  cost basis which is very unusual that's bull   market action bare Market action I should say  anyway watch this place carefully remember we   did have what I call the 5gs you know Germany  selling a ton we had grayscale selling a ton we   had US Government threatening to sell we had  Mount gaau we had Genesis five kicks in the   teeth it's amazing I still have some left um now  this is also interesting Switching gears where do   Where Folks Get Crypto Info people get their crypto info most people the most  people 34.4% of all people in the cryptoverse get   their information from X Twitter both the same  thing by the way number two is where you all are   here right now with me 23.4% on YouTube and 16%  on telegram I'm very happy to report like I did   yesterday that pavl is out of jail in France I  think yester end up in court or something but   again this is where people get their information  I will talk a bit more about Telegram towards the   very end so be careful it's a warning and August  ethereum sees record low usage and that is the   August ETH Sees Record Low Usage usual summer slowdown uh over the past 5 years  e spot volumes have generally declined by about   177% in August this is what I call the summer  doldrums and last week the average transaction   fee on ethereum reached an all-time low of 0.00 04  eth which is amazing because it was over 100 bucks   a couple weeks ago and now it's almost pennies  and the decrease in transactions ethereum has   led to a reduction in the amount of eth being  burned and therefore the inflation of eth has   actually gone up so it's no longer ultrasound  money anyway that's the eth news but there's a   SOL Helps USDC Hit $16Trillion in Vol little bit more too uh salana helps usdc which  is the circle stable coin cap capture a monster   amount of stable coin Market already they're  nowhere near tether but they're growing very   fast and as of recent data salana holds more  than 3/4 of the stable coin market share for   transactions and usdc is up um making up 65% of  you of salana stable coin Supply but what's really   critical is salana is the driving force behind  usdc transaction volume reaching $16 trillion   and these are lots of little transactions lots  of them not people moving around 100 Grand or   whatever on Tether on Tron or an ethereum these  are like some people just moving pennies but a   lot of value has been acre too so that's super  interesting to watch and back to vitalic he has   Vitalik Sells More $ETH been selling more eth it's the second time he  sold recently he transferred $800 eth worth   New Tesla Models about $2 million to a multi- about 40 minutes ago  I think this is early this morning morning and on   August 9th he also transferred 3,000 about  8 million so he's I don't know if you call   it taken profits of selling out or it's rumored  that he has a girlfriend and maybe he's treating   her to some stuff I'm not sure but he is selling  and that rattles people now we're going to switch   gears and talk a bit about Tesla because Tesla  rallied hard into the close today and we know why   first of all there is a Tesla Model y refresh  reported it's been seen right California here   with kind of mappings and dresses on the back  DB F430 thank you so much for coming and Tesla   is planning to release these in q1 of 2025 they're  already running around the roads uh also there is   rumored to be a seven seater model wi production  a lot of people have been crying about when seven   seater car mini SUV so that's apparently coming  too and I'm not sure where it's going to be built   first but plans are for this to be in Shanghai  and of course the US perhaps too or Berlin I'm   not sure and what else we have lots of cool things  but this is uh one of the the concept cars I saw   this on Twitter might be somewhat what the robo  taxi would look like now why did the Tesla talk   Robotaxi Reveal at Warner Bros it's a long week why did the Tesla stock bounce  into the close well just before the close Tesla   plans to unveil a robot taxi at the Warner  Brothers lot in California that's a movie making   studio in California near Hollywood in a place  called Burbank and this is the big 1010 event   they're planning something big here and uh it has  people excited and that's why they needed more   time also coincidentally electric vehicle interest  hits record high with 28% of people now planning   to buy EV next you'll hear fuz stories on the  internet about oh people are trading in their EVS   for gas cars no that's at traditional dealerships  that are dying no not at all and Tesla also set a   global goal for robot taxi Supremacy in the market  so they're going after this Market hard that's the   whole plan and yes they're taking their time like  they did with the Cyber truck now the Cyber truck   is the most dominant vehicle they've made over  30,000 already they're kicking out about somewhere   between, 1550 and 1700 week and people are still  spending over $100,000 in these cars the number   Market Likes It one selling six-digit car on the planet too and of  course number one selling electric truck as well   also the market likes it this is the spike shot  up $8 going into the close and uh again reminder   everybody it's a long holiday weekend in the US  but there is some aftermarket action on Robin Hood   which I sometimes dabble into also another bit  of good news for Tesla Tesla wins to dismiss of   Tesla Win Dismissal of DOGE Suit Doge suit apparently a small group of investors  alleged Elon Musk and his company had mated a   price of Dogecoin using their ex then Twitter  accounts Steven Weston long time no see buddy   thank you for coming back um that was interesting  that's another headache gone out of the way and   it's good to see the legal system working properly  for once but Elon did come out and say something   Elon: USA in Fast Lane to Bankruptcy spicy Farzad made a post uh which we've spoken  about many times here about the government budget   and the US government plans on adding another 16  trillion to our national deficit to through 2035   you know what they're adding a trillion every 100  days so 16 trillion will be a very low ball number   in my opinion it's going to be a lot higher  than that ladies and gentlemen the deficit by   my calculations is running 2.4 trillion a year  all right okay so we take 10 years 2.4 trillion   there at least 24 trillion right there and that's  assuming no escalation in interest and debt and   deficits which of course will grow uh it's just a  big snowball Runing down the hell growing bigger   and bigger and bigger and then it smashes into  a car that's basically where we are so ignore 16   trillion it's going to be at least 24 trillion  by my math but Elon says at the current rates   of government spending America is in the fast Lan  to bankruptcy and government overspending is what   causes inflation so don't listen to potic Ians  when they talk about it's the large corporations   jacking prices and stuff no it's money printing  it's a monetary phenomenon that's it end of story   SPX Longest Run of Gains Since March and a little bit of stock market usage is kind of  interesting because when you compare the monthly   returns for Bitcoin to the S&P 500 it's not as  good S&P is in the longest run of gain since   March another positive day today big run into the  close too but so far uh the S&P 500 has only had   one down month this year as compared to four or  five last year and Bitcoin has had three down   months unless of course Bitcoin is going to Rally  into how many days are in this month I don't even   know I think I think we is 31 days yeah 31 days  in August so we have tomorrow to get up about   8% I don't think Bitcoin can run 8% on a Saturday  but we'll see I doubt it for much so it's going to   be another red candle but historically as well  September people are worried that September is   Historically Sept in Election Years - Not That Bad normally a very bad year Well August is normally  a pretty cruddy month as well but it's been very   good for the S&P 500 and historically September  in election years is not that bad okay here you   see the actual results you got your September of  election years in blue you got the red the average   September performance in in election years it's  minus. 58% nothingburger and average September   performance in non-election years minus 1.37% so  again sometimes people overly sweat stuff like if   you're in crypto if you lose 4% 6% a day is like  nothing these guys are freaking out about losing   0.5 Z whatever percent in a month we're going  to get through this Mr key frames good to see   you so don't sweat it too much and also you know  what we got in September Ray cuts that will also   boost boost the market and again a lot of people  have the theory that when rates are cut everybody   gets freaked out and the markets crash but no not  with liquidity growing the way it is right now as   well I'm here hookie thank you so much for coming  now speaking of dollar Index dollar Index was in   DXY in Free Fall free fall but it's bounced and it where's that my  little key you see the where it bounced off the   range I shared this chart on Tuesday here and did  an analysis right at the bottom and it did bounce   clean off that 100.5 level now it's about 101 not  a big move but what's interesting is to see how   the dollar Index compares to Global liquidity and  check this out I always try and find patterns in   DXY Bounces Off Bottom Of Range & Global Liquidity Up, DXY Down data and you can see here for some strange reason  Global liquidity and the Dixie run counter to each   other and this is a new phenomenon I was not aware  of personally I know Bitcoin and Dixie run counter   to each other but I know Bitcoin and liquidity run  together so this kind of makes sense but what is   interesting so if you look at July ever since the  beginning of July and the yellow is liquidity we   rallied hard and we took a bit of a dip back and  that's exactly where the Dixie bounced can't make   this up ladies and gentlemen these two run counter  I actually overlaid a Bitcoin chart part two but   it got too busy and I'm big on Simplicity so I  didn't want to busy it up too much if you want   to see it tomorrow I can throw it back together  let me know in the comments below but it's super   interesting because the yellow and Bitcoin go  together and the yellow liquidity and Dixie go   counter so fun little pattern there rato thank  you for coming now because of the I didn't mean   New Fed Focus: Jobs this to be such a macro story but this is so  so so important to understand how bad things   are out there this is from again Nick um you  can see here the Federal Reserve is focusing on   the labor market we are moving into the post INF  inflation scare and this is now the focus of the   FED is do not let the economy crash I reckon that  tells you everything you need to know about where   the monetary policy of the us is going focus is  labor market focus is unemployment rate focus is   econom IC activity forget the rest they're not  interested in anything else and sad to say the   economy is not not doing well another news that  just broke literally minutes before I streamed was   Goldman Sachs Whacks 1,300 Staff Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs Hax 1300 staff sorry  for the the rhyming there again but uh that is   not nice going into the long Labor Day weekend  for the employees to be notified that they are   losing their job golden sack's the top top money  bank and for them to have hard times means we're   in a real world to hurt other views of it too  the US housing market has collapsed shout out   US Housing Market Collapsed to cagues at the Matrix of bringing this to  my attention on Discord but here you can see   the buying conditions in the US housing market  have completely collapsed we are now at levels   we've only seen twice that was let me get these  years right if I can read them off the chart 1975 and 1982 83 the other two times have been  this low we're in the toilet people it's not that   people don't feel like buying homes people don't  have money and again politicians will tell you I'm   going to give you 25,000 towards a new house or  whatever that just increases the price by 25,000   it doesn't solve the problems like price control  it doesn't solve the problem problem is people   don't have money they don't have down payments and  they can't afford the very high interest rates in   mortgages right now that's the problem okay so I  wish somebody could explain that to our friends   Empower and finally quick warning guys said I  get back to Telegram and again thank you all   for coming too yeah I just see living like aanda  says here in the comments HSBC is also cutting   when when the big Banks cut that means we have  literally economic problems okay they they they   sit on your money and land it out for 20% and  they're still not making money that's that's a   BEWARE: LINKTREE SCAM worry anyway beware as well there's a thing called  link tree somebody tweeted me with it today and uh   this guy Paul thanks for the tips sir link tree  is supposed to be me it's not me I have nothing   to do with it if you click on it it'll take you to  telegram I'm not on Telegram telegram is a scamers   Mecca all right and just remember everybody I will  never reach out oneon-one there are apparently 38   invest answers on telegram 38 of me and they're  all reaching out to you want to be friends and   you know can you do you want to be part of my  special program I don't know we know what they   say just remember I'm too busy to ever reach  out to anybody one-onone I'll never do it as   long as I live I promise you that thank you all  for coming have a great weekend I'll see you all   tomorrow thank you the mods in the chat and I am  Huckleberry and the whole gang out there who did   I miss anybody doc intern is here rato is here  I'm your huckleberry is here Steph Weston is back   Sean Donley thanks you so much have a good night  out there in the UK and everybody all over the   world stay safe bitcoin's at just above 59,000  let's see if we get a week head pump be funny   though if it didn't pump on Saturday but pumped  on Sunday being the 1st of September and got us   back to that 63k level I did mention 2 weeks ago  in Octa if we don't break 63 we're not going to   get ahead we're going to fall back down that's  exactly what happened 63 remember the number   we got to get above 63,000 before we get to the  next stage thanks everybody have a good night bye