Ole Miss will BEAT Furman Saturday | Jaxson Dart Year 3 with Lane Kiffin | Ole Miss Rebels Podcast

om Miss is going to beat Ferman on Saturday but that isn't the goal it should be a given you are locked on Old Miss your daily podcast on the Old Miss Rebels part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day welcome rebel nation I'm your host Steven Willis a 10e veteran member of the national media with Yahoo sports and a former Miss staff member today we're gearing up for what could be the most anticipated football season in Miss history as Miss takes on the Ferman paladins tomorrow while the rebels should come out on top because they have Superior Talent the real focus is going to be on them getting playoff ready Jackson Dart is now entering a third year with Lan kein that has been pivotal to shaping this team in the transfer portal and in the offensive efficiency as well we'll dive into what we can expect from him tomorrow with insight from Pro Football Focus thanks for joining us on the lockon Miss podcast don't forget to like subscribe and share this is the lock onus podcast your daily podcast on the Miss Rebels part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day we're free and available in all the podcast apps and on YouTube thanks for making lock on your first listen every day and a special H to the Insiders and every dayers who make the show what it is don't forget to find a second listen on the network Chris Gordy loon SEC or even Cory Burton at Vandy they provide other perspectives on college football the SEC and even old Miz so check it out you know how I feel about perspectives Five Hour Energy fixes tired fast with zero sugar and convenient portable sizes it is the perfect pickme up for getting stuff done go to 5our energy.com and use the promo code locked on CFB to receive a 20% off discount on your order this only available until September 30 and it cannot be used with other promotions go to 5our energy.com today all right so this is our first why Miss wins episode of the seasons for new people to the channel we do this on Friday before every football game it doesn't matter if Miss is playing Ferman or if they're playing Georgia we're going to do this episode and we're going to tell you why that Miss should win the game why if ol Miss wins the game why that happened and we'll give you our predictions and everything going into the game and the reason that miss is going to win this game is because they have better football players than the fman paladins it's an FCS School Miss is a 42 and a half Point favorite and an over under of 60.5 points Miss is the overwhelming favorite to win this game there's no use even pretending otherwise but winning against the Ferman paladins is not the goal the goal for all misses to win the national title to make it to the playoffs to do that you obviously have to be good at enough to beat the Ferman paladins so if you're as good as you're trying to be and you're very process oriented and right now Lane kein is leaning heavily on what Nick Sabin has done at Alabama in the past you can see it just oozing through his veins at the moment they're very process oriented they're going to be process oriented all the way through they're not going to do the ups and downs on roller coasters of a team they're going to try and make this as even killed as humanly possible and the reason you can do that is because this these three things this the reason Miss is going to beat Ferman and honestly their talent they'll play clean and their talent's going to overwhelm has a year three Jackson Dart and Lane kein combination that's a pretty big deal and the way you always upset at Old Miss in years past was through the old miss defense that defensive deficiency has been fixed and and because of that it's going to be very difficult for Ferman to win a 17-13 game judging by what this offense could be as well should be interesting so we're going to start off talking about the year three lane kein and Jackson Dart combination and why that's important when you look at Jackson Dart a year ago he threw for 3364 yards on 233 completions 358 attempts 23 touchdowns five interceptions he' had a whole lot more if they weren't relying on quinon in the tight Red Zone area and they allowed him to throw the ball because they had more decent sized Targets in The End Zone Dayton Wade love Dayton Wade Jordan Watkins love Jordan Watkins neither one of them did a whole lot to take a lot of the attention off of Trey Harris that allowed defenses to double him that's the reason I talk about all this season Lane keen's goal in the transfer portal was to recruit players to make get more difficult to um double team Trey Harris and even I'll go ahead and say this I'm not going to be somebody that goes after Doom clicks or anything like that but with Dion Smith not being named eligible that doesn't necessarily affect what's going on now there more people to take double teams off of Trey Harris yes that would be a a really big deal but juice Wells Aiden Williams those guys they should be good enough to take those double teams off as well so don't expect the offense their Outlook to change too much even without Deion Smith who is an unbelievably talented player and if I was him I would be on the phone to the UFL right now so let's look at Jackson dart's numbers in the first couple of years let's start off with um 2022 and see what he did these are his quadrants you know these are his quadrants on the field and he struggled throwing the ball down the field um nearly 30% outside left he was about a little bit like 45% outside right he was about 30% in the debt deep Center that was not a good area of the field he threw picks um in the center of the field eight times to the point where we had Jake crane on my show and he talked about the blind spot that Jackson Dart has for linebackers but there was one drive in 2022 that stands out to me the reason that I knew that Jackson Dart had it it was the drive that he did at the end of the game against Mississippi State 99 yards now we tried to get a little bit cute on the two-point conversion and state made a really great play but Jackson Dart in a rainstorm in a windstorm was able to drive that football team down the field and get it to the point where Miss had a chance to win that game so that's how I knew that Jackson Dart had it and we were worried about the middle quadrant that's the 37 for 54 for 844 yards or 804 yards eight touchdowns and two interceptions is NFL passer ratings like 137 that quadrant was the the question quadrant for Jackson Dart that was the quadrant that everybody worried about he raised up his passer rating outside right outside and left the only thing that he needed to really work on going into his third year is to improve the outside um the center deep quadrant but he's up over 125 NFL passer rating in all of the 10 to 20 yard quadrants both left middle and right every question that you've had for Jackson darts in over his career he's answered he's gotten better and better but we do not know what a year three Jackson Dart looks like you know we all assume that the numbers should jump and the number jump should be large if you go off of other year three starting quarterbacks if you count Eli Manning if you count um even Matt carral before he got injured year three starting quarterbacks in the system they usually have a significant jump I'm expecting the same thing to happen with Jackson Dart this year um he could throw some for somewhere in the neighborhood of 3,800 yards he can throw for 40 touchdowns it should be interesting especially with the weapons that he has at his disposal that honestly Eli Manning didn't have that honestly um Corral didn't have as well his competitive nature will continue to affect other players listen Jackson Dart has done a job this year to make this team his team this isn't Lan keen's team in 2024 this is Jackson dart's team Jackson Dart recruited players Like Walter Nolan and princ Ley and Mellen and Juice Wells and if you watch the season on Wednesday they talked about him being at a dinner with every single visitor they brought in not offensive visitor not quarterback visitor every single visit and he took recruiting very seriously for ol miss this year this is his team and that competitive nature will continue to affect others he has a Magnetic Personality and that is going to be cool one thing that I want to see Jackson Dart have more games like LSU Texas A&M and Penn State those three g games were fantastic but there can't be eggs laid especially in the bigger games against the Georgia Bulldogs against the Alabama Crimson Tides in 2023 he struggled a little bit he needs to have those good games against the Oklahoma Sooners he was going to have a really good defense this year the Georgia Bulldogs who is going to have an even better defense this year that's going to be imperative and that that is another area that I think he could make a jump in year three listen a year three Jackson Dart has a chance to be the most special quarterback that we have seen at Miss honestly that's not even me being hyperbolic um that is just the truth if Jackson Dart just has a chalk year of what the expectations are just normal just the expectations nothing special he's going to walk out of here with 90 to 90 five% of all quarterbacking Rec records rushing and passing and he's going to walk out of here the winningest quarterback inma history we're talking statue L that's what we're talking about is on the table for him now the one thing that everybody's going to ask is like do you leave Jackson Dart in the game against Ferman to pad stats because everybody talks Jackson dart's according to FanDuel is plus 1500 to win the Heisman Trophy do you leave him in to pad stats to get ready to go and the answer to that is in INE equivocally no you do not do that the goal for this team and they have the single-minded focus if you watch the season you can see that the goal is to win the national title the goal is not anything individual award related so I think that you're going to see backup quarterbacks probably earlier than you even expect to see backup quarterbacks coming up next in years past teams found a path to upset Theus Rebels through their defense but this season that is all changed we break down this new look that's got Lane Keen excited hey Rebel fans if you're like me you're balancing a b busy schedule while trying to stay healthy and that can be a challenge that is why I'm excited to tell you about Factor Mills your go-to for quick nutritious and delicious meals that fit perfectly in your day Factor meals are Chef crafted and dietitian improved with options like calorie smart protein PL plus and ketto um they're fresh never frozen and they're ready to eat in just two minutes whether you're into work in between work or the gym or catching a Rebels game Factor makes it easy to stay on top of your Wellness goals and with over 35 meals and over 60 add-ons to choose from each week you'll 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every single time or your money back because with eBay Motors you're burning rubber not cash with all the parts you need and the prices you want it's easy to make your car the MVP and bring home huge wins keep your ride or die alive at ebaymotors.com eligible items only exclusions apply eBay's guaranteed fit is only available to us customers college football is back and it's not too late to catch up before the season kicks off SEC and ACC Big 10 and Big 12 previews they're available now you can get all that from lock on stable of college experts by subscribing to the locked on college football podcast who has a chance to make it to the playoff who which teams will cause the most chaos in their new conference everything you need to know all in one place be sure to follow And subscribe the lockon college football podcast part of the lockon podcast Network your team every single day you know it's really interesting to me and I'm about to say an ugly words that's probably going to um freak out a lot of Miss fans but the 2010 Jacksonville State game everybody remembers the 2010 Jacksonville State game and I guarantee you between now and the time it kicks off somebody is going to mention that game to omus fans that's fine other schools we do it to them as well we do remember the main when talking to a State fan that's just the way that works but the reason that Jacksonville State was able to get in that game was Miss's defense was putrid it was awful that was back when Tyrone Nicks couldn't stop a nose bleed so you had a situation to where Jacksonville State could score with oh miss oh miss ended up putting up 45 points in the game or something like that it was the defense that was the problem and every time that om Miss has been in a game to where they have been on the verge of getting upset the defense has been the problem it's always the defense it just seems that's like that's almost like a scheduled post whenever has a trouble you know with an inferior opponent quote it's going to be on the defense well that's not the case anymore this defense L kein said was the best most talented defense that he has ever been associated with as a head coach now I'm sure he's had some stuff at Alabama to where those those guys were different breeds but at Old Miss at USC at FAU at Tennessee this the best defense he's ever had as a head coach and Pete Golding is the best defensive coordinator that Miss maybe have had has had ever probably since Jolie dun if we're going to be honest um and so om Miss seemingly has corrected the slim narrow path for an FCS team to defeat Miss now this all goes out the window if Miss turn turns the ball over plays really sloppy if the Kinder gentler fall Camp comes back and just backfires spectacularly is this is all null and void but if Miss comes into this football game competent if there's not mental errors if they're not turning the ball over if they're not making special teams blunders if there's 11 players on the field if all of that happens om should win the game fairly comfortably and that also means the offense is going to perform at such a level that the defense is not going to even have a chance to give up enough points to get themselves in trouble this is honestly a game that I think Ferman is probably 10 points that that's probably a very good game for Ferman if they score 10 points in the game and the question you have to ask yourself can score 53 and a half to cover um because the question is definitely not can Miss score 11 because you know Miss might score 11 by Midway through the first quarter it's just the way it is it's not not an insult at the firman paladins they getting their money they're funding their athletic department this is called a rental win for a reason so ifas comes out and play plays clean they should be able to handle business and these new transfer players thatas has brought in Like Walter Nolan from Texas A&M or Prince Ley Aman me Ellen um from from the University of Florida even Chris Hardy um from Jacksonville State this will be their debut where you get to see those players on the field and I curious to see what they will look like it's not even a situation of can Ferman score enough to be in the game with Old Miss it's I want to see this miss defense is it like the Mercer game if everybody remembers the Mercer game a year ago where the first play from scrimmage they busted an 80 yard touchdown on theas defense and did nothing else the remainder of the day and Pete Golding traditionally is just destroyed bad to Mid defenses so we'll see ex or bad to Mid offenses I should say we'll see exactly what this looks like but Pete Golding has this team in a position to where if you're worried about the traditional path to an upset in a football game it's usually through Theus defense and that doesn't seem to be a viable thing for for Ferman coming up next we will wrap up our th thoughts on Ferman and break down what this preseason means for the rebels so don't go anywhere lock down almost continues you know grab a Five Hour Energy Shot to stay alert to watch all of your favorite games on Saturday or if it's Sunday morning you've stayed up all night to watch those intense overtime games maybe catching Hawaii you can take a Five Hour Energy Shot in the morning so you can start your day Five Hour Energy is the brand hardworking people like you have trusted for over 20 years to give them an alert energized feeling they need to get through a busy hectic day all you need to know um is where to find fou Five Hour Energy shots right well it's at the cash register at nearly every convenience drug or grocery store in the nation stock up on money-saving Multi packs to make sure you never run out of delicious 5H Hour Energy shots and if you go to 5our energy.com that is the number five hour energy.com and get some 5our energy product today you can use my promo code locked on CFB to receive $20 off your first purchase now that's only valid until September 30th on only one order and they can't be used with other promotions it's not good with other subscription orders as well but go to 5H hour energy.com today really interesting you know when you start off with an FCS opponent it's really difficult whenever you do stuff you know you want to have standard plans on day by day and the whyus wins episodes when you play an FCS opponent everybody's like well yes of course omz should win the Gamez has a better team than that but you know as a segment as a show we we want to do this because once you're playing Oklahoma once you're playing Georgia once you're playing LSU this is a really really big show um and you need to kind of set the hook in the first month of the Season listen Omas has a better football team than Ferman just divisionally sec to FCS um it has a situation to where Fus should be able to run the ball at will in the game it's a situation where you want to look at players and you're like hey this player had five rushes for 55 yards this player had a really good game that might not be the case so when you watch these games these FCS games it's got to be about the eyeball test and you have to know how that running back got the 55 yards on five carries because if he has one run for 54 yards and four runs for one yard he did not have a good day because you had an FCS bust for the reason that he did it and of the other carries he did not he was not able to do it but if he had five carries and averaged about 10 yards per pop you know that he had a really good day when Jackson Dart if he throws multiple interceptions one is forgivable you you know you you can do the Gunslinger thing I never I never blame somebody for one pick but if it goes over and over again and turnovers start to mount up that's a problem um for this game to be a success for Miss obviously a win you know duh I'm not worried necessarily about covering um because in an over underline and all the point spreads they have right now that's based off of the old points per proess possession that they were doing a year ago and the Florida state Georgia Tech game there were seven offensive Pro possessions per team now there were some really long drives in that game Georgia Tech ran the football but I think the underbed is probably the early bet as this season heads on um I I would probably stay away from the 42 and a half point line even though that is Ferman om Miss is going to be good is going to be fine I just don't know if that many points is going to be there for the taking for the for example if Ferman scores a touchdown in that game all of a sudden you need 53 points and how does that look you might need special teams touchdowns or defensive touchdowns to get the number up to a high point to where you can actually cover now doesn't say anything negative about om Miss as a football team I think om Miss is going to be all right my final prediction for this game I think Miss is going to win 45 to 10 I think Ferman is going to score a garbage time touchdown that is going to take this game from being on the verge of an Miss cover to the um Ferman lock as a cover in their way Miss is going to win the game fairly easy 45 to1 because I think once Miss gets up to 28 nothing 31 nothing you're going to see back backups go into the football game and those backups are going to be responsible to for determining whether or not miss covers or not I think 45 to 10 is the is the play in this game it's an FCS game Miss is trying to make the playoffs they need to do things in this game that wins but also do things in this game that helps them to make the playoffs when you play a mock game and then you going into an FCS game let's just be honest about this the mock game service team is about the same level of what the um the opponent is going to be on Saturday so you do need to bully them just a little bit but it's going to step up next week with Middle Tennessee it is going to step up the week after that at Wake Forest um and then potentially depending on you ask it might step up with George's Southern coming into the town the boys from Statesboro they are no joke and cl hton everybody thinks of the option stuff that Old Navy offense um Klay hton they have them running kind of a true spread down in Statesboro right now but those are the four non-conference games leading up to Kentucky on the last day of September going to be a big deal it's going to be a big deal as Miss trying to make the playoffs there's certain things that need to be accomplished in each one of these games not the least is winning the game Omas is going to be be a two to three touchdown favorite at a minimum over all four of them but there's things that need to happen in those games foras to be playoff ready and to go down the road to where they're at their best possible self when the Georgia Bulldogs run on the field in Bal Heming way Stadium on November 9th that is why this game matters there's stuff that happens Omas had a Kinder gentler fall Camp they had a Kinder gentler spring practice which means how is the team going to look over the first month of the season and because of that Kinder gentler fall Camp I do think the underplay is going to be the play for the next four weeks now theoretically everything should be ramped up by the time Kentucky comes into vaing way Stadium theoretically that's the way that that should look but I do not have high hopes for any sort of a machine hopping out now miss could come out guns of Blazing against Ferman and be good straight from the jump and that could happen hey I'm all for it but whenever football coaches and this is over the course of the last 120 years whenever football coaches see things that are a little bit sloppy what's their Instinct their instinct is to get physical to get harder and practice and things things like that to make practice simulate a game as much as possible we'll see how it looks hopefully om Miss operationally is sound they do not turn the football over and the defense just can go out and win the game because we will talk about this as the season goes on but how much does lanin's offense change with this defense does everybody remember in 2014 how the offense changed to where Hugh freees realized that hey we have the number one scoring defense in all of college football offensively we need to play to them they need to be the number one injuries and all this other stuff happened but that was something interesting that I saw Hugh freeze do will Lane kefin do something similar to that as well so thank you again for making the lock on Miss podcast your go-to source for Miss Sports we pride ourselves on offer the most comprehensive perspectives which is why we're the number oneus podcast out there and thank you for that your support means the world to us thank you for making locked on miss your first listen every day now go check out the lockon college football podcast from nil deals to the never ending conference 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