6 Players That Will Bust This Season in Fantasy Football

Introduction welcome back into the dynasty nerds YouTube page I am your host Garrett price and today I've brought my good friend Peter Bowski with me Peter how's it going buddy it's going great I'm so excited to talk about this negative issue that affects us all in fantasy football I I I greatly prefer the positive like this guy's gonna break out this guy's a sleeper this guy's top 12 book it like then you got to be like actually I don't like this guy and then you just feel so mean cuz like y it's nothing against them like I'm not I'm not trying to take their livelihood I'm just saying like if it were up to me I would worry about drafting them yep and I always try to say this before uh like in intros to episodes like this uh I hope I'm wrong sure like against these players yeah we're we're we're not ruing against them if they have great Seasons but these are players that we have concern about this year right now yeah when you look at their profiles when you have certain things that you're checking out and you're looking at you're like that doesn't seem to equate to Fantasy success and every player has like even the best players you could probably find a random metric on them that it would be like oh that doesn't look good this year like stats can be very misleading very deceiving but there are some that are a little more telling than others some that are a little more reliable than others some that are you know better predictive uh so that's that's our goal today is we each have three players that we've come in prepared to discuss a little bit and look we might agree on all six we might agree or disagree completely with each one of our takes from the opposite person but that's what we're here to do we're here to talk it out I might I might disagree with my own takes I actually don't agree with any of these any of his three any of my three they're all awful I actually point for this video hey they might all suck um with two two players for this video I was researching I was like I hate this this doesn't make sense this this guy's not gonna bust well I know I have one from the ones that you told me that I could see a route for them busting but I don't think they will and we'll get into that a little bit uh and we'll discuss it but Pete Rashad bitman why don't you why don't you give me your first bust candidate of 20124 okay we're gonna we're gonna start this off a Brock Bowers little a little just this guy is the dynasty darling of all tight ends and his name is Brock Bowers okay oh and this is this is where we we're talking about this season right Garrett we're talking about this year 2024 baby this this year I love him in Dynasty guys okay for sure but he is currently going as Titan n in redraft and sleeper ADP for reference Sam Porta last year this is this is fantasy data ADP now so I switched I couldn't find the sleeper ADP on this but he was going as tight end 20 okay okay so I feel like the issue though is reviewing Samuel pora and um Brock Bowers and Brock Bowers sorry A message just popped up on my phone and totally just that happens to me more often than I would like to all the time all the time but so that that's kind of the comparison right is if Sam leor can do it Brock bers can do it and I am here to tell you probably not because you look at the situation that Sam Le Porter went in last year versus Brock bers this year uh you first first off you got Luke gy as the offensive coordinator for the Raiders known at previously as the Bears offensive coordinator true and he got fired um he ran the ball a lot they were actually second in rushing yards last year Justin fields did have 657 of those rushian yards but they ran the ball a lot uh Bears offense had less passing yards last year than both the Raiders and the Colts so I know you can't compare but you can kind of look at offensive systems and what people were brought there to do um right and if if you haven't realized Gardner muu the former quarterback of the CTS and then now the Raiders towers and yes that is why that's why I brought up the Colts yeah yeah okay yeah um and so good good thing you brought up Gardner mchu G I'm glad I did um so he stepped in admirably for the Colts last year if you extrapolate his season he passed for 4,322 yards pretty good number that's pretty good that's pretty great right 20 touchdowns 12 interceptions okay that's not that's not as good touchdowns per game um if you look at that that gen per game uh was 1.18 which is on par with Aiden oconnell um so either way no good no good so I'm worried that there are too many mouths to feed with Devonte Adams and you got jacobe Myers and then you got Brock beers and then you got Michael Mayer still which is a serviceable tight end um that's why I think at tight end nine he is kind of drafted around his ceiling and that's why I think he won't return on the investment on your investment yeah I could absolutely see that betting on rookie tight ends in David Njoku general is a little bit of a risky business uh we see year after year rookie tight ends tend to not perform up to expectations in year one now it's tough coming off a year when Sam laapa did it so incredibly but before that you know very rarely do we have guys get in tight end one range and if they do it's tight end 8 tight end 11 tight end you know guys like that so I I'm with you I I don't have a strong opinion either way on Brock Bowers like is there a path where I could see him being becoming the number two target right away and getting enough passing yards and all that like I definitely think it's in the realm of possibility but touchdowns are probably going to be a little harder to come by for this offense so he would have to do it mostly on receptions and he could do it but that's a lot to ask of a young rookie right off the rip so I don't I don't feel strongly either way about this one it would not Shock Me in the least if he busted I could see him having a good season so I think it's a good call I I definitely think it's somebody where if you're looking at other players drafted in a similar range like I would rather have some other tight ends around his spot uh that I think are going to do pretty well so uh I totally get that one have no issue with it at all all right let's get to my first guy and we're actually going to stay at the tight end position so I am a Cleveland football Browns fan and for years we have been hearing about just wait till David and joku breaks out and every year he kind of disappoints for Fantasy purposes always in that 500 or lower yard range sometimes they'll have a few more touchdown catches than others but just never really happens and then finally last year and year I believe it was seven uh for for David and joku finally we saw a little bit of the breakout that second half of the season and specifically those last five games he looked awesome so you say man the tide has finally turned David nin joku is going to be the guy this season well let's not forget that there were several different quarterbacks the Browns played with last year in particular we had DeShaun Watson we had Dorian uh Thompson Robinson and we had Joe flacko now I'm not worried about DTR that's not going to affect anything for this year but in David and joko's games last year with Joe flacko he averaged 18.2 points that was basically those last five games of the year and in his games with DeShaun Watson 7.4 we're talking about an 11o difference in points per game from one quarterback to another now you could say yes but deshun Watson's going to be healthier and improved okay let's even say he improves that he he improves it by 50% okay well that's still only putting them around 10 11 points per game still nothing to get overly excited about so I think for this year I think there will be games because he's such a good athlete and there will be times that David and joku balls out but when you factor in that we still have Amari Cooper you added into the fold a Jerry Judy Elijah Moore's still there Tillman's there who they want to get more involved like there's just a lot of players that could make things annoying for a David NJ and so I think on a week toe basis and even end of season like I don't know that we're going to get the monster year that we got last year at the end of the year from David and joku just seems highly unlikely to me yeah no I like that who would you prefer for this season only nooku or Bowers uh I actually have B we did our tight end episode I did I have Bowers one spot ahead of njoku but I was trying to figure out how to get njoku even lower but I just couldn't figure out a good way to do it but I'm I'm not in on in joku at all uh so I would rather take Bowers personally but it's I don't have either one particular High I think they were 11 and 12 for me in my ranking so it wasn't I didn't have them very high yeah for me that range of tight ends is like I'm not going to reach for either of them if I'm doing redraft and I'll just grab a sleeper at the end but Zay Flowers anyway um okay my next pick I'm ass uming this is the one that you're going to disagree with we'll see Z flowers Yep this is the one okay here we go I got I got so much notes right now it my screen is so chaotic okay so he is currently going behind in front of I miswrote that he's going in front of George Pickins okay Amari Cooper Rashid rice and tank Dell is this dynasty or redraft in redraft okay okay so you look at where the expectation is is he's G to be pretty good he's going to be the wide receiver one on a hopefully ascending oh you kind of paused there for a second whoops oh did I yeah glit in The Matrix oh um so he's expected to score more than those guys okay let's let's hop pop into this this last year so first first 10 games of the Season he was a disappointment would you agree with that I would say so yeah or at least underwhelming yeah he he had that great first game where I thought it I was wrong about him because I've I've never been a huge fan of of him I remember talking to you about him on better Sports last year um right but so then Mark Andrew goes down and then he starts having these really good really kind of uh Boom games okay so I just kind of wanted to project what his season would look like if you just included the first 10 games that had Mark Andrews a part of the team um I do acknowledge the fact that rookies do grow in the offense and all that stuff you know it was a new offensive system last year so it does make sense as the season progressed he would have gotten better but anyway so the first 10 games he would have averaged the whole season if you extrapolate that out to a whole season he would average [Music] 10.62 points per game okay which would have put him behind ter mclen Tyler Lockett courland Sutton deont Johnson and Brandon Cooks so I look at that potential and then I look at what he did even with Mark Andrews being gone the big thing that propped him up is he went from one touchdown to four touchdowns in the that second half of the season I am just worried about what what's the pro Productions going to come from because I don't think he's going to have the volume that is needed to take the next step um to being a a a valuable wide receiver two or backend potentially wide receiver one for your fantasy football team so so here's the thing about about Z flowers one I get it uh but typically when we look at rookies we look at their second half of the Season not necessarily their first half of the season um so it takes some time usually for them to get going and still even in that first half where he averaged 10 points per game uh a little over that you still had some nice boom weeks in there 17.7 17.1 so like you had some good games in there as well 12.3 uh so you had some good games in there but he really only in those first 10 weeks only had one real dud he had a 2.1 Point per game uh a point game in week nine other than that all of them were at least serviceable for a rookie uh 13o game like a lot of very serviceable games really only that one like real big dud for him but when you look at Players specifically rookie wide receivers when you look at rookie wide receivers and you factor in uh what they do in their rookie year I did a I did a study over the past I think it was five or six seasons uh wide receiver rookies that averag 10 or more points points per game in their first year on average those guys in year two had a roughly two points per game increase so he had a good first season and we only had a couple guys that went down uh Garrett Wilson went down like point two points uh J Jaylen Wadd just had a Bonkers rookie here so he went down like a point but like 15 of those 18 guys or something like that I don't remember the exact number but it was like a high percentage like over 70% of those guys uh then ended up having a better season than they had the year before so if you're going to add about two points per game onto say flowers total puts them at about 14.9 points per game on a points per game basis that would put him as a mid-range wide receiver two to even pushing a high-end wide receiver two depending on the total games played uh but the other thing is on a separation so separation is a big thing that that I like to look at how are guys getting open and how open are they a lot of the guys towards the top Rashid rice uh Tyreek Hill those are you know some guys that have big years last year number one on that list was actually Z flowers so he was getting open at a really really high rate so I am not overly worried and we also saw Lamar Jackson with his highest yards total and completion percentage last year compared to what he's done the rest of his career so I think things are trending in the right direction so I am not with you on Z flowers busting this year I think he's gonna have a pretty good year Well I mostly agree with you now uh but I don't know like for me what you said this Liz last year with Lamar was one of the like the best year passing wise for him right mhm so how that offense looks like and the increase that will still be needed to have those two points I don't know I'm I'm I'm not saying he's gonna like fullon bust but I am wor and I would much rather I would much rather take like a George Pickins or rushy rice or a tank Dell who were able to have that more those more explosive weeks but also just more um consistent in their explosive weeks like tank Dell was 19th in fantasy points per game a large a smaller sample size for sure but um and just George pickings with the potential of becoming the number one Target in that offense do you think that Z flowers will has a chance to become the number one Target in that Ravens offense no I think it's always gonna be Mark Andrews at least for the foreseeable future maybe in two or three years but uh for now I think it's definitely Mark Andrews and I don't necessarily disagree that those guys could like I think tinell does have a good year I think targets are going to be a little bit more of a struggle this year uh but you know I don't hate it like I think he's in the right range you know Rashid rice lot of risk but a ton of reward there possibly for him so for me it's the right range like all of these guys have a little bit of risk a flowers biggest risk is they just don't pass the ball as much as other teams pass the ball so like there's there's risk with all of those guys so for me it's the right range like I'm not saying go out and buy he's going to have a monster season but I think that like 13 and a half to 14 points seems about right for me uh I don't know that he gets up to 14.9 but I do think he improves on what he did last year and I think he's a solid low-end wide receiver two high-end wide receiver three okay uh really quick would you prefer having him or Amari Cooper on just redraft oh I'm not in as much as other Rachaad White people are on Cooper so I'll take flowers okay I think I would take I think I would take Dell and mclen over him but I think I would take him over rice and uh Cooper speaking of McLaren I'm all in on mclen this year you know I'm all in this is this is the jersey that I chose to show for the bust episode though because it's actually a doson Jersey it's my only Jersey that I ever bought what a bummer that's right everyone I've ever bought is a Browns one and that hasn't worked out great so uh I could yeah I haven't I haven't had many but as a kid I had a Tim Couch one I had a Courtney Brown one then I went on like a a strike didn't get any for a long time then I finally got a pton Hillis one and then I was like finally we have our savior Baker Mayfield and I bought a baker Mayfield Jersey so although not that he's a bus necessarily just didn't work out for Cleveland but yeah yeah so I'm I'm uh I'm oer on the jerseys if that makes you feel any better it doesn't it actually makes me feel more depressed well it's a perfect time for a bust episode all right yeah uh speaking of a bust I cannot think of one guy that I am more confident in that he is going to bust in 2020 before than Rashad white I am so time you've ever said this by never mentioned this before on the show Premier yep Premier time that this has happened look if you've listened to the dynasty NS podcast if you've heard anything you know that Rashad white is a guy that I do not buy into he's probably a fantastic human being and I bet he makes a great chocolate chip cookie but I don't I don't want him I don't want him on my fantasy team like I don't I think when you look at his his numbers dude had the third he was actually tied for second in attempts last season tied for a second only behind Christian mcaffrey what did he do with it 3.6 yards per carry totally in the gutter now you can blame him you can blame the line whatever you want to do but it's the same situation so it's not changing this year it's the same situation he's not going to be efficient on the ground but you say Garrett we don't care about that stop bringing up the rushing yards we care about the receiving okay well guess what they did in the draft they went out and took one of only two players that had over 50 receptions at the running back position one of them Blake Watson for the Denver Broncos and number two you had Bucky Irving for the Oregon Ducks I think that there is a very real chance that Bucky cuts into his workload to a point where he does not become not only is he not a lowend running back one actually was a high-end running back one last year but not is only not a low-end running back one he's not even a running back two I think you're going to be looking at running back three flex play type of production this year for Rashad white look maybe I'm wrong and maybe I'll have a bunch of egg on my face at the end of the season but I could not be more confident in a guy that will not will not produce at the level he's going his ADP it's fluctuated throughout the offseason but anywhere from running back 11 to running back 15 he's kind of always staying in that range and there's just no way that I'm touching him at that value man so let's say if you if you accidentally drafted him oh on a dynasty team okay what are you willing to to trade him away for I would trade him away for a high Travis Etienne second I would have no problem trading away for a second it would not take first for me maybe even a midc like I I do not believe in him at all well and the other thing that we haven't really met talked about that much is um the Bucks lost their offensive coordinator we don't know what this offense is going to look like and that offense was kind of just built around him and Mike Evans so yep yep I'm uh love it I'm out I'm out Bob all right Pete give us your last one Travis etan it took me so long to figure out how to say his name correctly I remember I say eten or whatever etn etn whatever uh so he is currently going at 18th overall on super ADP uh he's seen in this this tier of running backs where I would I wouldn't say they're the Cornerstone running backs of like CMC see uh Robinson and uh Hall but he's in that next tier that is is seen as a huge different M differen maker for your team and I am really worried about just how he projects to this year um you look at the Jaguars offense second half of the Season it was it was not good man it wasn't Evan Ingram had so much fun that that second half of the year but no one else was having fun no one has had a good time no one was having fun um so if you look at um just his weeks 10 to 16 of the NFL season I am excluding this is I I'm saying this on air I'm excluding week 17 because that was a big week against the Panthers just so you know that there there is a game excluded there so if you extrapolate weeks 10 through 16 to full 17 Game season as you can tell I love to extrapolate okay um you get 1,147 rushing yards uh seven rushing touchdowns 44 receptions for 321 uh receiving yards which is a average points per game of 14.36% not great but that that is a segment of the season right so you can't just ignore that you can't ignore what he did in the first half it was awesome but I think what eten showed us is that he he cannot hold up very well in a full season because what have we been hearing this whole offseason about tank bsby is we need this guy to to spell eten so he doesn't get worn down yeah and tank bsby actually a pretty good preseason I try to not pay attention that much to preseason because of a lot of times it it shows you what's not true um but with with big speed there's a reason why they didn't go out and really invest that much into the running back room however confusing it is they they really do believe in Bigsby which I loved him coming out of college but just just a bad start to to year um and for rookies that can just pile on and just make a really bad year but if you look at Doug Peterson he loves his committee back backfield um with his time in the Eagles so I'm just worried about him really uh really just giving you what you need when when you're drafting him at that um part of the draft this is another one where I I don't have any issue with this like I have some etn I don't have a lot of etn uh partly the reason I have him is because there's just so many few running backs that get the type of workload that he gets uh and and at least have some Talent so I'm I'm not against it but he is really frustrating like he can be a very inconsistent back at times you know when you have a stretch where you go from 36 point points in 23.3 22.7 25.9 you're like oh my gosh this dude's amazing and then you get 6.4 8.9 12.6 like you're like oh that stinks you know like it's just it's very up and down then you get some 17-point games then back to six and you're it it he can just be a very frustrating back at times and if you get him on a boom week awesome but he's another one with a lot of potential touchdown regression we know that's not the most sticky stat and so there is some touchdown regression possible there for a uh Travis etn so uh let me get to my last one here and apparently we are picking on the Jacksonville Jaguars because I'm going with Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence somebody the biggest thing I heard because look overall he's been kind of a disappointment obviously that Trevor Lawrence first year was terrible but he kind of gets a pass because of the urban Meer stuff year two was okay but the problem was he actually regressed in year three uh which I was a little bit worried about but the big thing that I kept hearing was don't worry it was because of all the drop passes and granted he did have a decent amount of drop passes but it wasn't like he was towards the top Matthew Stafford had more Jordan love had more Jared gof had more Josh Allen had more Patrick Mahomes had the most in the league so it's not like there were other quarterbacks that didn't suffer from that too and still have fantastic fantasy football finishes but the thing that really worries me is his poor pass attempts there was no player in the league that had more pass attempts considered poor or offt Target according to fantasy pros than Trevor Lawrence even ahead of Bryce young even ahead of Sam how like he was the number one guy in poor pass attempts with 104 a lot of other guys are averaging in that kind of like 70 range and he was just he was just at the very tippy top so that really worries me and granted you you get you added some weapons you added a Gabe Davis you added a Brian Thomas but is it going to be better with deep pass guys that you're going to have to check the ball deep to like no that that would probably improve with short aot close Atlantic scrimmage type stuff so I don't like these underlying numbers for Trevor Lawrence I think he's a guy that has a bigger name than he does performance so for me on Trevor Lawrence despite adding weapons I think he's gonna be a little bit of a disappointment oh man I agree like he he just really is still kind of living off that you know 101 Clemson hype that like he's a good quarterback I think we can all agree that he's a good quarterback right yeah I think I think he's a solid NFL player but I don't I don't know that he's a guy that elevates your team no yeah I agree with that and that's where it gets a little tricky so with that that is our bust episode uh Peter thank you so much for uh joining me today Peter real quick Super Bowl prediction who wins it this year uh Chiefs yeah can't blame me there all right thanks for tuning in to Dynasty nerds YouTube page please put in the chat below who you think's bus go ahead Peter go ahead wait what's who who do you predict I pick the Chiefs too oh okay three threp baby they're not even my team I don't know why I said baby but three be Dynasty they're not your baby Super Bowl Predictions they're not the Browns are my baby but my baby always disappoints me so I have to live vicariously through other people's babies yep all right see guys