FantasyPros Fantasy Fest Live (2024 Fantasy Football)

Intro [Music] he [Music] he [Music] he [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] he oh [Music] [Applause] [Music] there's a lot of choices when it comes to Fantasy Football season but there's one choice that's going to help win you your league if anything happened to Harris he would be a League winner we are not here for second place we are here to win the game nobody wants to finish last and nobody wants to finish second he is in my players to avoid article that's live on the site right now it scares the beesus out of me and fantasy pros is the place where we win I talked about his quarterback I got to take his top wide receiver too ter mcen baby I love that everybody is in on DeAndre Swift and I hey you know those filthy stinking e they did something right fantasy pros has the best group of talent the best set of tools now is the time to get the tools now is the time to sync your league and if you don't think that somebody else in your league is already using fantasy pros tools you're wrong and chances are the person in that league is the one that won it last year so don't fall behind get in with fantasy pros make sure you hang out with us every single week on the podcast in the Discord chats how do you think every year we get into this Loop where certain players like that get overvalued this guy's a Target machine fifth in total targets seventh in receptions ninth in Target share get you to be the best of the best when it comes to Fantasy Football there's a conversation to be had about him just being a better player than Z flowers and this is not me shading because second place just isn't good Best Draft Values with Jake Ciely enough welcome in everybody to fantasy pros this is fantasyfest I am Joey P Joe p is upia and for the next next five hours we have got you on lock down five hours of wall toall fantasy football right here at fantasy pros our fifth annual fantasy Festival of friendship as well and speaking of friends right off the bat I've got two incredible folks joining me D bro Derek Brown the king of Bros the prince of the primer and Jake cely rocking a fantastic shirt that I've had in the cart more than once already he's got The Goonies Raiders shirt I am rocking my NFL Blitz Derk Henry just came uh it's it's a festival friendship but also a fashion period of time as well gentlemen welcome to the program for those of you new to Fantasy Fest we're talking ball today we've got an incredible lineup of guests ahead some of the best of the best when it comes to Fantasy Football I know it's not quite Red Zone but you know what it's August so this is just gonna have to do so it is commercial free pretty much so you got that going for you Gentlemen let's get right into it and let's talk about the topic because we love a good draft value I know Jake cely does because I've been out enough times to lunches and dinners with Jake where he is looking for whatever is on the special whatever somehow is maybe I don't know five dollar cheaper or whatever it is Jake you love a good value I know that you do don't pretend like you don't so Jake I want to start with you here welcome to the program and let's Jump Right In give me a guy that you think is going to be of value for all those folks playing fantasy football in 2024 I'm going to start with a quarterback and I'm going to start with a quarterback which my question to you is going to be if you like Anthony Richardson why don't you like Jayden Daniels because my projections uh maybe you disagree you want to go take them and say you're dumb Jake I'm going to change them but I have more passing touchdowns for jayen Daniels than I do Anthony Richardson I have similar rushing upside uh this is somebody who has if they want the lazy comparison that a lot of people have made is Justin fields which I don't think is fair because I think you have a better decision maker a better deep ball a player that people don't realize oh why are we talking about those two wide receivers oh maybe it was because jayen Daniels was playing quarterback throwing those touchdowns to them all season long and you want Teran mclen to get back inside the top 20 jayen Daniels can do it but more so jayen Daniels being QB 13 outside the top 100 picks is absurd to me because Anthony Richardson that Gap should be a hell of a lot smaller than it is oh my goodness a hell of a lot look at you already very sassy just to start the show off I only those Folks at the athletic could hear you right now so Debo Jaden Daniel is one of your favorite guys I know one of mine too and and Jake brings up a great point which is if you love Richardson and you don't want to pay the cost there's Jaden Daniels sitting there towards the end of drafts maybe you have to be a little bit more aggressive around maybe two earlier depending on the folks you're playing in Leagues with but let's not pretend like the upside for Jaden Daniels isn't as much because Richardson and Daniels are both effectively basically rookies in 2024 yeah I mean look anybody that's been listening to the fantasy Pro Show knows that I love Jaden Daniels right now he's my qb9 and to your point Jake and Joe I have him at 76th overall so well look I'm not telling people that they have to draft him that high but the thing is I want you above consensus on Jane Daniels all in on everything Jake said the rushing upside is there and the other thing we always come back to is volume is King well guess what that also trickles over to play volume and we know we're going to get that with cliff kingsberry so I agree also that any comparisons to Justin Fields is not giving Jaden Daniels near enough credit as a passer my comp throughout the entire Prospect season was Randall Cunningham and I sit by that still I haven't been this excited to draft commanders possibly ever uh that I have been this season I'm GNA tell you and the next guy I want to talk about is another Commander one of D bro's favorites if you've watched any mock draft show this entire offseason uh it's been a fight between myself and Derrik Brown to get the running back we're g to talk about Brian Robinson Jr good career at Alabama probably one that doesn't get enough credit perhaps too because it was such a big-time offense with all these Stars around it Robinson was just like ah yeah he's really good and he's steady and then uh clearly has proven that he's a very tough kid and now he's in a situation with Dan Quinn D bro where you think this could be the real breakout for him despite the fact that Austin Eckler is now coming to town I think that's where people struggle so why is is Robinson the guy for you and not ekler well let's keep it 100 here Joe when we were all doing our Flex League drafts and I texted you immediately when you sniped him from me I told you then I'll tell you here I wanted to drop kick you I was like come on man this is ridiculous but yes I want him in every single League I could possibly get him in and we've seen this play out already I'm old enough to remember when Kenyan Drake smashed and James Conor smashed in the same offensive system and we can go back and everybody talking about Austin Eckler look Anthony Lynn is the art running backs coach and Run game coordinator and we've seen previously if you're high on Austin eor you really shouldn't be because he never got the goal line work he never got the Red Zone work I think all of that goes to Brian Robinson in this offense and people are still not giving him enough credit he was the rb22 in fantasy points per game last season and yet everything has improved around him and people are still ranking him as an rb3 I'm not with it he's inside my top 24 running backs uh I could read some of the other text messages from that draft but I think it'll get us booted we might get booted from YouTube YouTube yeah it might not be the best look for us uh but that's why you go to the Discord fantasy bros.com chat I can post it there it's like you know by we're little cool kids hang out in the community maybe we'll do a whole fun bit there uh Jake when it comes to the Commander's backfield is it Robinson is it Eckler or is a stay away because frankly there's two guys and sometimes when there's two guys in fantasy that means they're probably not might not be any that you feel comfortable about I'm taking option D where it's both because I think Brian Robinson I conservatively have projections that have him as rb24 and I feel like those are conservative because what I'm giving Jayden Daniels in the Run game but I think Austin Eckler is going to be used plenty enough in the passing game uh the concern I would have is that Austin ekler doesn't run the ball more than around a hundred times but that's why I also like Brian Robinson I think Eckler probably is more of an rb3 these days in kind of the old Antonio Gibson role but I'm with Deb on Brian Robinson in the fact that I think RB 24 could arguably be low cuz he's better in the passing game Than People realize and I think that got overshadowed uh so it really comes down to how much does Daniels dump off to the running backs which could cap Robinson but I do believe I'm with him in the fact that he's a solid rb2 let's go to another one of your guys here Jake we're not going to see him for a while which is interesting so this is really a testament of faith and thinking that Nick chub is eventually going to come back and be somebody you can count on in the stretch run now this was a serious knee injury we all love Nick chub everybody knows if you're final fantasy pros for the last couple years I am the President and founder of the chub Club however this is a tough sell for me even as the president I I have a hard time endorsing this why are you endorsing in 2024 getting Nick chub on your roster is it just based on the value or are you saying you know what you can never have enough running backs like what's the logic here for chub well first the logic comes comes down to I'm not playing for second place I'm playing for the title I'm playing for first I'm not trying to be the fourth best team and sometimes you have to take some risks I don't think it's as much as a risk as people are giving it uh you look at two factors I'll make one comparison is that Sequon Barkley a few years ago and we knew going into that Year everybody said he's not going to be 100% till October and that fourth game of September was like oh o he looks like he's 90 95% back and we got that next game it's like sequin is back unfortunately he rolled up his ankle on the Cowboys and was never the same for the rest of the year but you know that's a freak kind of injury everything the Browns have told us in their actions this offseason tells me they believe Nick chub will be 100% by October if not possibly sooner they didn't really do much in free agency or the draft at all uh they even with the injury they still didn't do much to address the position and you really look at it okay Jerome Ford's the hold over but if Nick chub if I told you right now you have to wait you get zero production from Nick chub in September but he's 100% by October you'd still take him as RB 15 because oh by the way Levon Bell when you missed the first three games that won year was rb1 I don't care about September I care about the championship well that's kind of rude my birthdays in September Jake you should care about a little bit my sisters I still don't care about it wow about me Jake forget about your sister uh another guy on your list Jake is Jonathan Brook so while we're talking about hurt running backs coming back from ACL injuries let's just Loop them all together in this conversation because Brooks is another one of these players that you're not going to have probably in September um I think the big discussion Point becomes something that Scott bogin brought up a couple weeks ago which is you know if you watch Javonte Williams last year we heard all these you know positive reports you read all the tea leaves whatever you want to say at the end of the day Javonte Williams even when he came back he came back a little later than people thought anyway and he never really looked like himself now we could say Nick chub is different we say Jonathan Brooks is a different Talent that's all fair but the process he's putting on that isn't a bad one so why is Jonathan Brooks like chub in your opinion a good investment because he's still in the mid-30s are running backs if you told me Jonathan Brooks at rb22 I'd be more hesitant I I will say Jonathan Brooks could say worst case could be well obviously worst case could be gavon Williams and he struggles the entire year but I feel like worst case I go back to cam Acres when he wasn't anything until December now of course at RB 34 and you only get one month of rb1 production still a little bit overpriced so I will throw this out there I like Brooks in the rb30 is if he starts to creep a little bit higher another two rounds now you're getting to the point where I might have some hesitancy mostly because the names in the 30s are split backfields anyway the one thing I will also add to Brooks similar to chub too is you could always flip them if you're really worried because right before a player comes back is when you get Peak draft value because everybody always has the 100% injury optimism and oh he is going to be Nick chub he is going to be Jonathan Brooks so I feel like worst case if you're really that concerned you possibly have a trade value once they're ready to come back anyway I'll be looking for that trade offer from you somewhere around you know it's coming I'm gonna package them together for PUK and AA actually yeah that is the most Jake silly trade I've ever and I get a ton of them every year but I'm looking at it actually you and I are not in or are we in one League together or two right the CBS experts League we're in together we're in like one or two so we'll get that trade there Debo Nick chub or Jonathan Brooks choose your ACL running back for 2024 it's Brooks I mean outside of going with the youth and stuff I just think that you're looking at a player that when he is fully up to speed is going to have the role of maybe being a stretch run Workhorse and it's not that I'm I'm taking anything away from Nick chup I want to see him back on the field and crushing opponents as well but could we also see like him just playing the early Downs Jerome Ford playing the passing Downs I think when Brooks comes back not only going with you but look at what canel has done with running backs I think he gets all the work or at least most of it when he does come back de BR let's go back to you for another one of your uh potential values on draft day and it's a running back you've talked about quite a bit and drafted quite a bit in a lot of spots here it's Devon Singletary of the New York Giants so saquon Barkley is gone Jake has cried into his pillow many a night for the last six months over that fact but Deon single ter comes into town and he has been a a guy that has performed I think always better than expectation and expectations once again are low but your expectations are higher on single ter than most tell us why they are because he's going to get all the work and he should again he should be ranked as a top 24 running back I you can get him in the rb3 range and for the volume and the workload he's going to see I I don't really understand the ranking I I I get I and look I was at home the other day and I watched all the Giants and I watch Daniel Jones do Daniel Jones things I I understand all of that but stingle T is still going to get all the work and he has been incredibly productive I mean last year I know it's a better offense but the RB 21 and fantasy points per game after he was the starter the I don't think we give single T enough credit for how good he is on a per touch basis like he was 19th in explosive run rate 22 to miss tackles for us per attempt last year if he's getting all the work in this offense even if we want to say oh it's a smelly offense we don't really want a lot of parts of pieces outside of single ter and neighbors I still want to buy into single ter because his volume and his workload is not getting baked in enough to his cost and drafts by the way Jake Daniel Jones things he's referring to throwing pick sixes out of your own End Zone that's a Daniel Jones thing can he hide the bad play behind that handsome beard I don't know if he can I don't know but you should not hide this year from our tools of fantasy pros including the draft assistant if you haven't used the tools your fantasy pros I'm telling you now is the time to try it for the first time or come back if you've tried some other places and you realize it's just not good enough you remember when you first started playing fantasy football and it was all fun and now your draft can feel like you're studying for a test and this year you could reclaim that same enjoyment with the draft wizard the draft assistant simplifies the entire draft process making it easy to dominate all of your fantasy drafts and it connects right to your draft directly keeps track of everything that's going on it tells you who's the best pick it tells you who behind you has a tight end needs a wide receiver basically it's like having a cheat code inside of the draft room with you and you can even make cheat sheets for guys like me Derek even Jake cel's rankings and use them to your advantage so this season work less win more with draft assistant at fantasypros.com draft Wizard or just download Fantasy Football Draft Wizard app today and start drafting smarter not harder all right Gentlemen let's get back to some of the names on the list here we'll go back to you Jakey for another guy that you think could be undervalued and this is one I agree with in your Flex draft I drafted Rico dowle give me the younger running back uh on the big offense of the Cowboys and I think even over time once again you don't care about September neither do I if it looks muddy in September he would be one of the big trade targets for me because I'm concerned about Zeke lasting but Rico dles a target for you let's talk about why a lot of what you just said does Zeke last does Zeke have anything left there was questions last year of course a much worse offense most wor worse offensive line anything you could throw out there but does he come back can even produce rb2 numbers I'm hesitant on that and if you want to take D in his own right how about the fact that D on nearly every not just one or two nearly every metric was better than Tony Pard on this Cowboys team last year including running the ball in at the damn goal line by the way so why not take a chance on Rico dord we were always trying to find that late round running back who potentially takes over the lead roller surprises people he's running back 44 he's outside the top 11 rounds in draft if you want to just take a freebie on somebody that could work out Rico dle is the name Rico D for Jake cely let's go to UD de bro with possibly my favorite Draft Day value a guy that has four straight years of a thousand yards receiving and this year his Vegas number is 880 and a half it's absurd it's Terry mccl and again all the commanders I can't believe this is where I'm at in 2024 but I'm loving life and Terry mcclaren's a guy I'm drafting everywhere in fact I did uh I also took him in that draft where de bro was texting me let's just say inappropriate things he was very mad at me again for taking Terry mclen but uh Debo this is just so easy to me I'm looking at Terry mclen and I'm saying this is a guy who is finally getting a chance to play with greatness potentially a quarterback and I'll take that every day of the week because the floor so far with all the other guys that he's played with has already been pretty steady as it was I I agree with everything you say to Joe I love it man and I love Terry mcen this year and I just yes we have gone very very Commander Centric so far on this show but there's reasons for it it's because this offense is so undervalued none of these guys are expensive like we've heard the coaching staff talk about they don't know who the wide receiver to in this in this offense is we definitively know who the wide receiver one in this offense is and if we're high on Jane Daniels we need to give respect to Terry mclen so again a player that I have consensus has as a wide receiver three he's inside my top 24 wide receivers and all you have to do is look to the last two seasons and the path is easy to see last year based upon his volume he was the wide receiver 21 and expected fantasy points per game and you go back not last year but the year before he was top 20 in both yards per route run and first downs per route run so if we get good quarterback play and we're talking well about Jaden Daniels here and we think he's going to be good out the gate Teran mclen is going to crush he's one of the best wide receivers you can draft this year now speaking of wide rece oh go ahead J go I want to agree because Richardson Daniels Pitman mclen fle is ihorn that's all I want to say yes is Ein horn also fle in that scenario yes I was gonna say that just want to make sure well I beat you to it uh let's talk about some more wide receivers Jake you have three more on your list T Higgins Brian Thomas and Josh Palmer so let's take them one at a time but T this is funny because all the guys basically on these list this is pretty much my Flex team so I'm so glad that everybody you I'm have to put it back into the draft Wizard app for a grade here with just Derek Brown and Jake cely A++ it's like in Christmas story in the uh when the teacher keeps giving him the plus plus plus on his theme that's what it feels like today but T Higgins another one of these guys that it just feels like people are taking for granted Jake let's start with Higgins and then we'll roll through Thomas and Palmer but Higgins another guy on a pass first offense who has already shown you who's very steady yes Jamar Chase is the alpha dog but there's still plenty of reason to be excited about t Higgins as a very strong wide receiver too he's being drafted as a very late one yes and you talk about being undervalued uh Vegas included undervalued on T Higgins I don't get his line either because have we so quickly forgotten about 2021 and 22 backto Back thousand yard seasons back-to-back Seasons as wide receiver 18 in points per game and that was with Tyler Boyd who he gone and now we're trying to figure out who's the three from these other dudes from like we're talking about I mean I love Germaine Burton the talent but he's not even pushing for the three right now people are talking about mik aeki could he be the three because now they have a tight end and who cares T Higgins is going to get his 120 130 maybe even 140 targets because you're talking about two top tier weapons in Higgins and Jamar Chase where why is Joe Bro going to look to anybody else anyway I don't understand this because even if he only puts up 2021 and 22 numbers which I think his ceiling is higher that's still wide receiver 18 and he's being being drafted as a wide receiver three that is absurd do you want to jump in or am I moving to the other two wide receivers as well no I want I want to move to Brian Thomas because this is one that t Higgins is very known and disregarded Brian Thomas a little more unknown his ADP is in the you know 48 49 range right wide receiver 48 is where he's going right now so Brian Thomas why should people be excited about him as this Flex option so soon as a rookie an offense that you know at times last year I feel like let a lot of fantasy managers down they did it was all because of Z Jones right remember that where it really comes downin Ridley let a lot of people down too but I'm not gonna be uh particular about yeah but it all came back to whether or not Z Jones was healthy was my point as that was the debate last year Brian Thom that stirs the drink s yes Brian Thomas any other year would have probably been considered the Top If not one of the top wide receivers in the draft he fell into a terrible year for having a generational top three where I kind of had him as 1.5 tier because Brian Thomas in my estimation and my projection is like a Nico Collins type of ceiling for this guy and I think stepping into that Calvin Ridley role he will immediately put up Calvin Ridley's numbers but I actually think he does it in a more consistent basis than Calvin Ridley did last year which by the way will get you a top 22 wide receiver who is being drafted as wide receiver 49 so like dbo said earlier when we talk about a lot of these people cautionary Taylor Jan doson last year year is we're talking these people up that doesn't mean draft them in round five we're saying just be ahead of consensus like Debo said so wide receiver 49 you could still take him as wide receiver 39 and get a massive return on value and just make sure you get him in all your leagues Brian Thomas deserves a hell of a lot more respect just for his pure talent and one guy that Andrew Ericson is very much higher than consensus is Josh Palmer the third guy on your wide receiver list remaining obviously it's it's a very simple equation right you have vacated targets and Josh Palmer is a guy that's been there with Herbert for a while it might be a new regime but what makes me laugh Jake every time is that people say well it's Roman and hard ball as if they're never going to throw the football as if somehow Justin Herbert's gonna have 10 attempts per game and it's goingon to be leather helmets and all that stuff but it's not going to be Josh Palmer has had some moments the question is can he stay healthy in your opinion and return value here at wide receiver 53 it seems like a slam dunk but there's also some other competition in this mix so why is Palmer the guy for you that stands out so yeah we do have Josh Palmer having 72 over 700 yards and three touchdowns in his second season so he has done it before and that was filling in a lot that year inconsistently filling in because he feels in better for to go back then in the Mike Williams role than the Keenan Allen role in some of those games he was trying to be forced into the Keenan Allen role I think he fits well for what they have and you said it I I think people are laughing about this at least in their minds that they're not going to throw the ball they're probably going to still throw it 550 Plus times that's more conservative than they had been but it's not you they're not running the Navy offense in option every single time like let's stop with this I and I'm one of I thought I was going to be and I'm not saying this to be like oh haha but I thought I was going to be one of the highest people of all on lad makoni but lad makoni is a great talent but he's still as we've heard from reports in competition to fight off DJ CH which I'm not that worried about DJ CH but what has been the one clear thing this entire offseason this entire preseason everything from usage when the first team is done who's the one it has been definitively Joshua Palmer and Daniel popper over the athletic did a article talking up Quinton Johnson where he said he didn't drop or he dropped the pass but at least he ran a good route this time Quinton Johnston if that's what we're praising him for at this point I'm pretty sure he's going to be a non-factor so Josh Palmer with 110 120 plus targets sure it might only be fringy wide receiver 3 but w receiver 55 absurd absurd indeed all right enough wide receivers Debo let's go to a tight end and one that you have been trumpeting for months now and it's Trey McBride a guy that really broke out last year you saw the te's you saw the targets 2024 he's already going as the fourth tight end basically sometimes even the third tight end or on Debo's board maybe even the one tight end I don't know where you got him today I have to check and do the temperature here uh so Trey McBride let's walk through through the glory of what could be for this tight end in 2024 I must have a fever because the temperature is hot baby and it's rising man like Trey McBride yes he is my tight end one overall this year and for everybody look if your eyebrows are shooting to the back of your skull right now and you're wondering what the heck is wrong with me if you look at what Trey McBride did last year once he was the full-time guy weeks 8 through 18 fantasy points per games target share yards per route run receiving yards per game all these different metrics he was top three in all of them I mean he was legit first in fantasy points per game once he became that guy and so what are we talking about this year like is he not going to still be that guy and for everybody out there saying okay what about Marvin Harrison Jr what about him man like do you think he's going to get 400 targets Because unless you think that how does Trey McBride not walk into 130 140 targets both of these guys can coexist and eat together because there's no other wide receiver on the roster that is going to command a 20% Target sh a 22% Target here and Kyler Murray was honestly objectively bad as a passor last year so if he's all the way back we see McBride just absolutely crushed this year I I want to draft him in every single League Jake real quick before we let you go here what's your Approach at tight end this year because there certainly are some real studs at the top there is that really cushy Middle with guys like uh Kyle pittz and Evan Ingram and even George KD are you somebody just lets tight end fall in your lap and says okay whatever the value is I'll take or are you a little bit more aggressive on the guys like Andrews like leaport and like McBride I'm more in the McBride pits Ingram KD range because I feel like tight end's a lot flatter than it has been where I'll wait the extra two rounds or so and try to I'm trying to get a top nine and that includes K Kade and Ferguson I think that's kind of the cut off if I can't I'll take a flyer my favorite flyer it continues to go way too late is Dallas GD with the to change the Kell War I get G back into the top 10 mix but that being said I don't want GD to be my answer I do want to get one of those top eight and honestly top seven if I can Jake cely you're always the right answer thanks for joining us today talking about some of the values and I'm very glad who disappoints the most then then yes that is you're also that too that's also you know you can be both you're the yin and the Yang my friend you always are and I'm glad that uh things are on the upswing for you after a rough week last week and we appreciate you joining us today my friends so send the best out there to everybody else now we come back we're going to talk about drafting requires that could turn into rb1s what is that Madness you say well I'll tell you the madness begins with Justin Boone from the score so don't go anywhere we'll be right back with more fantasy football talk right after this drafting requires more than just luck you need to be prepared for your draft but preparation has become a chore these days it's timec consuming and most of it is so generic and it's not made for you well that's where draft wizard comes in draft wizard is built to understand you and your lead leue and you'll get tools that shape themselves directly to your league settings and it works with nearly every popular platform including Yahoo sleeper ESPN nfl.com CBS and many more to use draft wizard first you'll sync your league to import your settings once you've synced your league you can make a custom cheat sheet built in seconds that Maps themselves directly to your league settings next run hyperrealistic mock drafts based entirely on your league that feel like your real draft would finally when draft day comes the draft assistant will be there there for you to track your draft as it goes on and to help you make the most of every pick so don't go to your draft unprepared or stressed sync your league get personalized advice practice like a pro and be ready for Draft Day this season use the ultimate cheat code and make draft prepped easy with draft wizard get started today at fantasypros.com draft Wizard or on the fantasy footb draft Wizard app now one person who always RB3s with RB1 Potential with Justin Boone makes drafting easy it's our good friend from the score Justin Boone look at this handsome devil the goatee is really growing it nicely here oh oh it's the full beard it was taken down so much that on the sides I thought it was just a goatee we got the side profile Boon I can only assume you were inspired by Daniel Jones H and he's on mute what a what a rip roaring start this is live everybody this is the way we do it so we're gonna get Boon in on a second but today in this segment here with Justin boon if he is back is he back are we good now gentlemen oh we're good now there we are you know in all honesty there's really very little response to you know well it's I was sitting in the background for a few minutes there watching you guys talk to Jake I miss my buddy Jake I got to get him on my show pretty soon um love what you guys were saying great work as always and uh yeah you're getting like a slightly subdued version of me today I went to a concert last night woke up at 6: a.m this morning finished up my takeaways article for the weekend wrote did a podcast of my own so we're getting to that late afternoon like dip might need a second coffee pretty soon oh was it Bluey live like what was the concert was Childish Gambino actually Childish Gambino look at you very nice blue live with slap by the way okay don't talk down about that okay all right let's get into the running back conversation here with Justin Boon because every year we're always looking for players that can outperform their 8p and Boon one of the toughest things now is to sort of carve out those names at the running back position especially with all these committees going on all this uncertainty in so many backfields of guys that could really make that leap because when you have those guys they can go from rb2s or even threes to ones that's League changing game-winning stuff and vice versa the guys that we draft as ones like Austin eckar last year and by we I mean Derek Brown not me never uh it ends up becoming a guy that really kills your faning I'm kidding derck and I I don't think either of us drafted eckar last year but Boon let's talk about some of your guys here and let's start with one from from your board that you are believing in it's Taj Spears now Debo has been telling me follow the money and Tony Pard but you have a different take on this Titans backfield let's talk about it well I thought everybody loved Taj Spears I didn't even think it was going to be like a difficult case to make here and it's not that I dislike Tony Pard it's just that both guys are going in a Range where there's almost no risk in taking them and in Scott fishball I took them both just let's see what happens right I'll take both those shots in like the eighth ninth round depending where can get them um Spears to me last year he shows up one of the biggest things I'm looking for like this time of year preseason a rookie arrives does he look like he belongs does he look like he can actually be a playmaker and taji spear showed up last year and immediately looked like that plays next to a future Hall of Famer and Derrick Henry has 838 yards from scrimmage has 52 receptions three touchdowns and does that next to Henry now they bring in Pard and let's face it T Pard his best days came when he was in a committee I think the Titans know that because all offseason long they've been talking about these two guys being interchangeable they're going to use them both they've suggested that it's even potentially going to be a hotand scenario I like my odds with Taj Spears in that there will be weeks where both guys could potentially deliver but I really like Spears chances based on what we've seen so far with him coming through for you this year and giving you rb3 Flex numbers and potentially these like spiked weeks and then of course if something happens to Pard and Pard has been banged up in the past then boom Spears goes off and that's probably the easiest scenario for him to reach rb1 numbers but you also look at this Titans offense I don't think people are talking about it enough like the changes that they've made you have Brian Callahan come over from Cincinnati he brings his you know his dad who's one of the best offensive line coaches in the league they keep investing in this offensive line in the draft and free agency this Titans offense is going to be a lot different this year they're going to throw a lot more and like I mentioned Spears last year very involved in the passing game so I think there's a lot of ways that he could pay off and the fact that he's going so cheap right now there's just no risk at all in taking him question for you because you mentioned you took the entire Back Field is the Titans backfield the highest one on your trough in terms of yeah if I'm going to invest in one and try to play it out the style in which they might play you mentioned you know potential injury to one would mean a huge workload for somebody else they're just one of them is that like the biggest one that you would Circle or there a few other of those backfield tandems that you think have value to actually draft the entire backfield besides Tennessee there are a few I mean I'd be willing to do that with the Bengals as well but Tennessee is is certainly top of that list for me all right Debo I want to talk to you about Spears for a second because you've been a big Tony Pard supporter which makes sense in the in the fact of when you follow the money you know typically that's where guys are going at least the early consensus is somebody who gets paid is probably going to get the football more often than not but I kind of agree with Boon to a certain extent too like Spears was the guy that kind of popped for me last year I thought he was the reason why they let derck Henry go I was surprised about the Tony poed Edition how do you think this backfield shakes out and do you see Spears as a value of you know guy who could jump from an rb3 to an rb1 in Tennessee this year in fantasy yeah I mean to be honest I love both these guys um I want to be at a at consensus or above on both of them and this just comes down of talent guys and like the reason I have Pard above Spears right now is because I think if we're kind of parsing through who is more likely to get the red zone work I kind of lean pared but if you were to tell me at the end if we flipped over the cards at the end of the year and said Spears crushed and he was the lead back and it wasn't poed in this offense I wouldn't be surprised at all so I really want to take shots on both of these guys and really if one of these guys goes down I think it's going to be basically a a straightup committee like I think they're going to be used interchange um but if one of these guys goes down that's what we're talking about one of them including Taj Spears could be an easy rb1 because we just saw this last year man like you want to talk about efficiency you want to talk about split backfields like can we not also say that and I know this very very different offensive environment I so I'm not going to label it as being exactly the same but isn't Taj Spears kind of an Arbitrage play off of Devon aan like they're they're not different players they're immensely efficient and we just want to talk about okay but then if Tennessee outpaces our expectations as far as being a good offense then this is not a crazy take I'll say too I think when Spears came out there was like talk about you know the the lack of ACL and all that stuff and oh my God like the medical concerns and I think that talks more about his longevity in the NFL I think that could come into play a few years down the road and maybe shorten his career but right now if we're just looking at 20 24 I'm not really concerned about that so I think if the public perception is factoring that in that could also be involved in this well a guy that has a new ACL Javon Williams of the Denver Broncos look at that transition that's a professional right there javante Williams a guy that I think is it feels like he's in no man's land right now in terms of draft Capital Debo he is on your list as one of these guys now I know julo mlin is a guy that you've targeted a lot late in draft so I was kind of surprised when you put javante on this list today but I get it in the sense that you've seen flashes from javante Williams in his NFL career where he looked like an explosive fantasy back last year he did not look like that and unfortunately things just dragged a little bit because of that return from injury why will 2024 be different for gavonte Williams potentially now I and I understand his inclusion here people have heard me squawk about jio mofen since January so they could be like what are you doing are you is this a total 180 no it's not now my biggest concerns about Javon DTE Williams was what were we going to hear coming out of training camp what were we going to hear Shawn Payton talk about because a lot of the early love was all from a glofin and both his work ethic the talent his role in the offense but we're talking about if one player could take over that entire backfield and be the clear like 70% guy it would be javante Williams and all the camp Buzz has been amazing his training camp like when we've seen him in the preseason he has looked extremely good so for a player that we were all wanting hoping for the breakout to come and we've seen bad usage yes I'm staring at you Nathaniel Hackett in previous Seasons this guy could take over and if one guy does distance himself it could be Williams if his tackle breaking ability is all the way back to previous levels this year yeah he could be a guy that tilts leagues in whoever drafts him favor well I see a few thousand people watching us live right now so let's get to some questions and we'll get to some more of the takes on the running back position let's go with zorc here uh our old pal zorc going to be asking this every week till draft day but who is the better 14th round keeper rushy rice or tank Dell Justin Boone you're our guest so rice or Dell both have good quarterbacks I know the rushy rice thing people are concerned about the suspension but it seems like we're getting to a point where maybe that's not going to be a 2024 problem maybe 2025 if so how do you parse those two guys I honestly think I would go rice here like you look at what he did last season it took him a little while to get going once they started using him fully he was a strong wide receiver too for fantasy and now we're talking about you know this suspension is it going to happen this year it doesn't seem like all the talk in the off season that it was going to be maybe half the season there was one report kind of suggested at one point it doesn't seem like that's going to be the case he might not get suspended at all it might just be a game or two um so not really worried about that and if it does happen in 2025 again unless he continues to do things off the field that add up I don't think he's going to miss sign ific time so I would go with rice but it's incredibly close I see you nodding your head in agreement and I was too rice was it for me Debro why is rice the pick for you over tank tail because I think if you're just talking about absolute upside in what we know right now Hollywood I was already worried about his health walking into this season he's already dealing with an injury um that is not even one of the problem areas that is dogged him in his entire career so looking at a player we saw this last year for she rice crushed down the stretch and we need to be investing in talented second-year wide receivers and Rasheed rice absolutely fits that bill not only like wh I and and I'm very very high on the Texans offense but do you want to go CJ stra you want to go Patrick Mahomes which quarterback do you want to invest in I look I want to go Mahomes too that's an easy one however I I the other point I want to make about rice is there is a as you like to say d bro the range of outcomes where rice is the guy I mean he does have the jump on everybody else he has been in this offense defense for a year Travis Kelce is a little older I'm not saying he's you know Kel is not going to be the guy but there's a possibility where rice becomes the guy whereas I don't think there's a possibility tank Dell becomes a guy not with Nico Collins a not with Stefan Diggs now in town either I think that's the tougher sell one more quick question here we got one from Michael quenel Joey P in what round is the latest you could draft a tight end one in redraft uh that's a fun one because I have had some drafts get away from me recently in tight end and my Pivot guy has been frer move where I'm like you know what didn't go my way so I'm just going to wait it out wait it out and literally the last round or second to last round depending on what the draft format is I just scoop up Pat fouth and I just wait to see what it's gonna be and I Still Believe Justin Fields will be the quarterback of the Steelers Justin Boone the latest you'll walk the tight RPP at tight end is what man I I want it to be like round six because I want to get one of those top seven very badly this year if I miss out on them then it's Brock Bowers where he's going now and like the ninth round he's been my target quite a bit if I end up with fouth I like fouth I've talked him up as a sleeper too I don't feel good about it if I end up with him like at that point I feel like I might as well have Ty Conlin or anyone so yeah I would wait until the final round if somehow you miss out in the top seven you don't get any value in the next few rounds then just wait till the very end and you're probably going to use the waiver wire you hope that you hit on the right guy and it is firemouth or Conlin or someone like that but you're probably going to have to lean on the waiver wire and that's okay at that point now before we get to more of the names of RB 3s that could become rb1s this year I want to tell you as you're watching the Fest here or listening along you should be running some draft simulations right now okay so let's get in there let's start running draft simulations you can relive the excitement of all the mock drafts on the shows with the Mock Draft simulator here at fantasy pros it's fast it's fun it's easy and it's a great way to get prepared for all your drafts just takes a few seconds you can sync your league and you'll be ready to knock out realistic mock drafts tailor to your league settings in at least five minutes and don't forget if you're premium you get the draft Intel or if you've been in League with people for a couple years it'll draft just like the people in your league tend to which is unbelievable that's how I destroyed Debo in the flex League Draft I had little Debro robots all over the place little Jake sely robots and I was able to get the best out of things because of our incredible tools at fantasy pros so you can G an edge to with tools like the pck predictor and that'll tell you exactly what's going on and of course course uh where you are in the draft what you should do where the pivot Points are and who's going to make it back to you so it's the most comprehensive analysis you can get at the end of those mock drafts too from the draft analyzer you can see your favorite expert opinions and you can even back out picks as you go if you don't like the way a roster looks back it out and rerun a couple more mock drafts until you get it right that way you can dominate your Draft Day by preparing and practicing with Mock Draft simulator at fantasypros.com slm or it's so easy just download Fantasy Football Draft wizard today and start drafting smarter not harder go dominate all right Justin Boon let's get back to some RB talk you've got another guy on your board who is very intriguing in fact so intriguing we just talked about him with Jake cely so I guess great minds think alike everybody wants these running backs who have ACL repairs coming back Jonathan Brooks rears his head again let's talk about him so you heard cel's take you heard de bro's take let's get a third take on Jonathan Brooks this time from you Justin Bo yeah this is just about delayed gratification you have to be willing to wait a month or it might be more than that we'll see how long he's going to be out and how long it takes for him to eventually ramp up and take on what I think is going to be a three down role and there's just not many running backs out there that have that kind of role at this point he's in an offense that I'm very interested in I think it's going to be a lot better like we're just talking about Tennessee kind of changing so much Carolina is going to change a lot I have a lot of faith in Dave Canalis after what he did in his last two stops they've invested in the offensive line the interior of the line was one of the biggest problems that they dealt with last year they go out and get Damen Lewis they get Robert hunt at the guard spots that's certainly gonna help and Brooks he's not an elite Prospect like you know Bean Robinson or something but I'm pretty confident if he didn't have this ACL I think he would have snuck up into the first round of this year's draft talking about the the draft in April not fantasy drafts of course but this guy is a smooth Runner can make big plays when he gets back and he's healthy in the second half of the season that's what I'm looking at if I'm drafting him so you're gonna have to go out and get somebody that's going to be able to hold the fort down until then whether it's Jerome Ford or maybe his teammate chuba hubard if chuba's healthy got to keep an eye on that one because he got dinged up in practice recently but in the second half of the Season Brooks is gonna come on we see rookies do this all the time but it's often when they don't even have an injury it's just a post bye bump and all of a sudden at the end of the season they're helping people win fantasy championships I think Brook's going to be that guy this year he's 21 years old and just turned 21 this summer that's going to help coming back from the injury very excited about him and I think you're getting a discount just because he's hurt and people are worried about that but I expected that to be the case the whole time these guys that end up with these serious knee injuries at the end of their college careers they're not necessarily going to be impact players in week one but they can be impact players in the second half of the Season you said something very provocative there Boon which was you thought that he might be drafted as early as the late first round is that even though he wasn't in your opinion in quote Elite Prospect is that just because of the way the class shaped out at running back this year in your opinion partially that but I think just talent-wise he belonged there and there were some reports after the draft now maybe that was just you know his agent or the Panthers people putting that out there but there were some reports out there that teams would have considered him in that range all right Debo we already got your take on Jonathan Brooks so I want to get your take on Jaylen Warren another one of your favorites now Warren did pick up an injury this past weekend and I'm sure that's going to hurt his draft value just a tad uh how afraid are you of that injury and are you taking advantage perhaps of a little bit of I guess you know that tepidness in the market potentially as people liked Warren maybe mildly and now maybe starting to fade off of him a little bit should they be they shouldn't be uh I'll steal a line from Jake C earlier and I will say we are not playing for September we are playing for the rest of the season and if he slips in drafts and we know he's going to slip in drafts because of the hamstring and and the reports that came out said it's going to be a few weeks okay that's fine take it slow with Jaylen Warren because the talent is there I mean the guy crushed in efficiency measures last year and I I understand Nai Harris is not going away but if anything happens to him Jaylen Warren is a guy we would be ranking as a highend rb1 on a weekly basis as well as once he's back and he's motoring along you're going to get Standalone rb2 rb3 production I don't think people really give him enough credit last year inside of the context of that offense too he was an rb2 or higher in 50% of his games so we're already talking about he's at that borderline rb2 rb3 production once he's back what happens if he takes over the majority of this backfield and it's not Naji haes I don't think we can rule that out guys cuz again kind of like Tennessee we're we're it we're projecting this backfield but we could be wrong Boon what's your take on the Steelers backfield because this is one I think that has a lot of people in KN you know they're comfortable with Naji Harris but we know it's not really flashy and jayen Warren is a guy that does have a little bit more flashiness but now picked up an injury so now people are starting to sour how do you approach this backfield or are you just running away from it potentially I've kind of just stayed away from it to be honest it's not that I I don't think the guys can return value by any means it's that I don't feel good about my take on it I'm not really sure which way it's going to go and I like what de bro said there and I would remind everyone whether we're talking about Brooks or Warren or any of these guys that are hurt when you're drafting them remember you have an IR spot so don't draft a defense don't draft a kicker draft these guys instead and then throw them on your IR spot when they're not going to play in week one and then you can go pick up your defense or your kicker or you can go pick up uh another backup running back to take a shot on but I think sometimes people get scared of the injury and then they just don't want to take the player and they don't think about the fact that you're going to have someone else to play in that spot and you're gonna have an extra roster spot to pick up another guy and I think that's very important when we're talking about team building Look At You Justin Boone always playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers let's get some more questions here if you've got questions we've got answers drop them in the chat don't forget to like the stream too while you're here subscribe to the fantasy Bros YouTube channel so you can hang out with us and talk fantasy football all year long we we've got incredible live streams more Joe and Debo live this year I know you wanted it you asked for it you got it plus we've got all the podcast here you could possibly handle the short form videos the long form videos it's all here for you we are going to be your ticket to Fantasy championships here's a question from Hardy Ward are you guys in on jir Gibbs even with this injury Bo we'll start with you on this one I'm not and to be honest it's not even just the injury just in that range of the draft I really like the receivers I tend to go with the receivers very high on Jonathan Taylor this year as well so if I want to go running back I prefer to go Taylor I think he's got a big season coming um and and that's really why again not that I hate Gibbs and not even that I think the injury is going to be a serious thing that's going to hold him back this year it's more just the other options that are available in that range makes sense uh dbo real quick your take on Gibbs too because I know some people are getting a little panic mode I'm not panicking everything out of Detroit says that he's going to be ready to go week one I believe the coaching staff not many coaching staffs I believe in the NFL but I do believe Dan Campbell and what he's talking about with the injury so I'm not baining Gibbs I haven't moved him down in my my uh ranks at all and again I want to be investing in second-year players because what if Gibbs not only owns the passing downs but he gets most of the Red Zone work too he's gonna be a top five guy this year all right let's get another question here from Jamie Ross where do you guys rank Aaron Jones this year D bro this is a tough one because this is one of the guys that typically people were always sour on is maybe a real rv1 and every year he would deliver and then last year happened where he didn't deliver at all and he missed most of the season now he's in a new spot but that new spot does require I think now that Sam Darnell is the full-time quarterback a lot more Lean On The Run game so has that moved the needle for you at all on Aaron Jones the last few weeks I haven't moved his rank at all but but again I'm above what I think I'm I'm above consensus on Aaron Jones He is my rb14 this year so I think he has rb1 upside I think he can still be the guy that we've loved in fantasy for years previously I I understand the the hamstring the injury worries and stuff like that I get Sam darnold but we could also talk about Aaron Jones we've never seen him fully Unleashed in terms of like splitting down splitting work with guys I think he's going to have 70% of the work at least this year and we haven't talked enough about I think this offseason how much his pass game involvement could be immense this year Jordan Addison was not a high-end Target earner last year we don't know when TJ hackinson is coming back 80 targets for Aaron Jones in that offense it can happen man now when Debra was going through the assessment there Justin bu you made like a Robert dairo face for a moment it was very good Fellas I can't really tell did you want to whack him for it or did you actually want to say he's a good earner and it's all right you can come back and hang out down at the end of the bar I see the case I have not been following normally Deo and I are totally in step with a lot of our takes um I have not been taking Aaron Jones this year after pumping him up for years loving him great guy great teammate great fantasy player and yet this season he's older he's going to turn 30 later this year like Debro mentioned you want to overlook the injuries but when a running back's getting to that age and you go back and it's like every season for the last like Four Seasons or so it's like knee hamstring there like multiple injuries every single year I worry that now he's getting up there and when teams let go of some of these older backs sometimes it's because they know and and the Packers have been pretty good when they've let go of older players kind of realizing that this guy has given us everything he can and it's only going to go downhill from here I actually like Tai Chandler quite a bit I think they've talked about it potentially being more of a split than what de bro is projecting there so all of those things kind of scare me about Aaron Jones this year on top of the Sam Darnell of it all but we don't need to get into that I'm also a professed Tai Chandler hater so maybe that's part of and by the way Derek you know like he said sometimes you get older they start trying to replace you maybe it's time to start Just For Men with the beer I don't know maybe a little a little the it's okay the quick turn jeez man all right let's get into one more running back here and if you could believe it the guys are in agreement about this one it's Brian Robinson again coming back for more B Rob talk here uh Justin Boone let's get your take on this one because this is a little bit different so in the first segment with Jake cely in case you're missing go back and watch of course all these shows are going to be on demand too so Jake was talking about him as a great Draft Day value you're talking about him as rb3 who could become an rb1 take me through that path what it looks like so I'm sure you guys probably already covered a lot of this stuff I have not understood his ADP all offseason long I think it's been pretty he has been he's going to be the lead back in that offense and I think maybe it's just because people see the name of Austin Eckler and so they think Eckler signed there and he's immediately going to become the number one or you know being a 5050 committee that's not what we're seeing in the preseason that's not what the coaching staff has suggested they've even talked up Robinson and His pass catching ability and his improvements there I think he's still going to have a role there I don't think he's going to seed everything in that area to Eckler and if you go back last year so his season like kind of got derailed by injury around week 13 or so but if you look at the first 12 weeks of the Season half PPR scoring fantasy points per game Brian Robinson was the rb13 last year and that was with worst quarterback play I expect that Jaden Daniels is going to lift that entire offense up so he almost did it last year for a big chunk of the season that's not even a really small sample size I think he's got a shot to do it and it's like what his ADP is like RB 34 in my ranks he's RB 24 I bet dbo probably has him even higher um I would not be shocked at all if he's a pretty solid rb2 and a guy that could potentially flirt with rb1 stats this year rb22 by the way D bro ironically is it the you know the factor that Jaden Daniels could Elevate Brian Robinson but also be his undoing because you could see a world where Jaden Daniels is rushing for a lot of touchdowns and that could hurt Brian Robinson's value especially since theoretically he's not the big passing down guy at least to start the season do you see that potentially working against Brian Robinson all or you think no Jaden D just elevates everything all together and All Ships rise together on that tide uh that that lad point I think it's it's Jane Daniels elevates the entire offense and I've heard enough takes about people about Jane Daniels being too skinny so I don't expect Washington I mean look yesterday in the preseason game Jane Daniels didn't slide he goes out of bounds and he starts immediately staring at Dan Dan Quinn saying all right I I know I know so like if he better figure that out because he doesn't figure it out fast it's going to be a short season for him but to my point though like if Dan Quinn is making faces at him about like sliding and protecting himself do we think they're going to slam him into the goal line every time or that is that all going to be B Rob work when we get down to the goal line look at you you got an answer for everything both of you do thank goodness you're here Justin Boone always great having you on you're GNA join us later in the season two here in the draft season in August for another podcast all the Justin bu I can handle still never enough check out his work at the score and of course Debro will be back a little later we're gonna take a quick break when we return we're going to talk about potential busts in fantasy football the guys you might not want it draft and the reasons why and to help us get through it Andrew Erikson The Undertaker himself and my best best friend from Sports grid Casey Hudson's going to join us don't go anywhere we'll be right back right after this quick break hey everyone Pat Fitz Morris of fantasy pros here to tell you about an indispensable tool for your fantasy draft the fantasy pros draft assistant draft assistant connects to your League's draft keeps track of everything that's going on and tells you the best player to pick when you're on the clock it's like having your favorite fantasy experts sitting next to you let's take a look at it's going to help you out consensus rankings have you ever found yourself scrambling during your draft not sure about who to pick next we've all been there this year it doesn't have to be that way say hello to the draft assistant draft assistant doesn't just use a handful of rankings it Compares rankings from more than a 100 of the top fantasy experts you can also choose your favorite experts and see exactly who they would pick if they were drafting your team in draft strategy winning your draft is about staying one step ahead of everyone else draft decision does that for you it keeps track of what positions you need and highlights your targets and sleepers so they're easy to see it also factors all of that into pick suggestions so you can relax and let draft assistant do all the work real time alerts draft assistant tells you when a tier is about to drop off and what other teams need it even goes through your League's old drafts and tips you off about what your friends might do next so you get to snipe your friends more often draft assistant works with Yahoo ESPN sleeper and every other Major League hosting sites so wherever you draft we've got you covered switch from Draft Day stress to Draft Day success with the fantasy pros draft assistant get it for your draft at fantasypros.com Biggest Busts with Kasey Hudson assistant welcome back in everybody to Fantasy Fest it's time to talk about the players you don't want and to help us do it are two analysts that I do want here to talk about Andrew Ericson is here our good pal from fantasy pros and betting pros and speaking of betting one of the best there is on the wagering Network sports grid TV where you can also find me on Sundays Casey Hudson Casey I know you recently moved let me just tell you the apartment you're like me it looks like you're an unpacker you look settled in you look ready to go I am sorted um my my parents were not going to allow me to be here and have it be a mess because they knew I hit the ground running had to be at sports grid for four hours backtack days so this is this is M mama's doing yeah and well good on Mama and unfortunately you had to spend about three of those hours with me but that's terrible fate uh Andrew Erikson good to see you my friend we're going to go through some of the potential bus in fantasy football for 2024 and of course that is the thing Andrew right every year we come in and we look at the board and you could Target certain players in certain situations that you just have concerns about do you feel like you're seeing more of those guys in 2024 than usual or do you think the board looks pretty good overall when you take a look at it in terms of those landmines you want to avoid I think that the Market's gotten much better you know when we have a lot of great analysts especially ones inhouse and the ones that we have on the show today we're putting people in the right position to avoid these potential landmines so I think that the market has wisened up we've seen the RB Dead Zone move significantly we are drafting running backs especially ones that don't check off all the boxes much later than we have in past year so I think that we are getting better we are getting more educated and I love to see it all right let's talk about the first player on the list here and Casey you're you're coming out of the gates pretty hot here you're talking about Bree Hall potentially being a bust at his ADP now we love the player and we've heard a lot of positive Buzz about Bree Hall why would Bree Hall potentially be a guy that could hurt you is it just that you want to take those wide receivers early or do you have bigger concerns potentially about the workload in the Jets offense what it looks like with or even without Aaron Rogers again it's the workload for me because you've got Aaron Rogers coming in he's got a lot of chatter around what he will not do his legendary um play and quarterbacking at this time of his life is being questioned and when you see Aaron Rogers with a point to prove you see him air out the ball a lot more he's got Garrett Wilson who's GNA W another thousand yards season he's got Alan Lazard yeah people are saying that they're not hitting their chemistry quite yet in Camp but this is a guy that he targeted six to seven times in a game when he was back with the Packers you got Xavier Gibson who probably has a lot more to prove this season also so the workload in the quarterback Carousel is where I kind of said I don't know if Paul is going to have as much of a production load not to mention as it two of the games where he probably racked up a lot of those points in those carries were versus New England which yeah they still are a dumpster fire but 37 carries in a game and then Denver another team probably still a dumpster fire but 22 plus carries and so they're scheduling also in the Run Stop defenses they're going to go against and then Aaron Rogers with a chip on his shoulder I just I think that the production is going to take a little bit of a backseat she went right for the heart there with two New England fans just throwing the Pats under the oh I'm sorry gentlemen it's all right it's it's true I mean Andrew and I both know don't don't cry any tears for us uh but you know when it does come to Bree Hall and you know the workload and what we saw last year um you know he had 20 uh 23 attempts last year Andrew uh 95 Targets in that offense it's really tough to gauge what Brie Hall would be in 2024 with Aaron Rogers because we haven't seen it yet so Casey brings up an interesting point here which is workload maybe Aaron Rogers out to prove something maybe he doesn't want to turn and hand the ball over that much and if you do dare I say get a healthy season out of Mike Williams maybe all of a sudden this Tyler conin Mike Williams and of course Garrett Wilson Passing attack maybe it looks a little bit different there what's your take on Bree Hall this year do you find yourself drafting Bree or are you somebody that tends the pivot to the wide receivers early Andrew and some of the recent drafts you've been doing so breel is my number one ranked player so I counter point not only are you hating on the Patriots but you're killing my rankings as well but I I do understand you know where you're coming from though but at the same time I guess the thing for me is yes Rogers wants to put up numbers and what we saw him in Green Bay you know who was one of his best catchers not named Devonte Adams was Aaron Jones was a running back Joe said himself Bree Hall had 95 targets last year that was almost as many as Brandon auk had we don't still even know what team going to play for so for me I look at all those other names Mike Williams Gibson Lazard I think Bree HW could be the number two receiver on this team behind Garrett Wilson just like last year so that's why I'm a little bit higher on Bree Hall fact that the offensive line has improved a lot fact that also have an improve he's not coming off the torn ACL like last year he was coming off a major knee injury and now he's another year removed from that so for those reasons I I am drafting Bree Hall a lot and that's why I was my number one ranked player I like drafting young running back caff's getting up there in age he's already injured right now calf strain so I like Bree Hall the most there you go uh let's go to one of your players Here Andrew and the first one is finally a quarterback we get to talk about another quarterback here we haven't talked to QB in a while and it's Dak Prescott a guy that last year Andrew uh certainly I think you could argue at a fantastic season that might have even won some people some leagues especially if you somehow fell into a stack with CD lamb and Dak Prescott towards the end that was a pretty good combination now this year you have a little less love for Dak Prescott and I'm curious to see why that might be as you enter in 2024 because if you look at 2023 he did finish his qb3 and threw for 4,500 yards 36 touchdowns just nine interceptions now look I know two years ago in 2022 he did have the 23 touchdowns but 15 picks but in 2021 it was much more similar to 2023 37 TVs just 10 interceptions he's been a guy that hasn't turned over the football all that much 2022 be the exception so Andrew why are we going backwards potentially with Dak Prescott this year well you kind of laid it out right 2021 good 2022 bad 2023 good 2024 I mean where is it who was he throwing the ball to lamb is not there are we really feeling confident that okay I got Brandon Cooks Jaylen Tober we're hoping and praying for a year three breakup from a guy that's barely been on the field the last two years Jake Ferguson okay maybe it'll work I just think last year last year was the year to buy the dip on daak right and it worked out but this is not the year what are The Vibes around Dallas right now they're just not good vibes and overall when I'm looking at quarterbacks right I always want to play the value game a little bit more when it comes to the quarterback I want to get an elite fantasy quarterback at the best price and what what am I looking at with Dak this year that says he's going to be an elite fantasy producer if he's not doing it as a pocket passer when you look at the players that bust at the highest rate at quarterback It's usually the guys that thrw the highest R amount of touchdowns the year before and don't offer a lot of rushing value that's Dak Prescott to a t you look at the range he's going is qb8 qb9 the qb8 to QB 13 range over the last two years has absolutely bombed in terms of when you guys that you drafted in that area so systematically he just checks off all the boxes of hey build a quarterback bust in a lab pops out Dak Prescott that's who it looks like this year so for me again overvaluing non- Elite Court why would I draft dck Prescott when I could draft Jordan love same range he's got four number one number one wide receivers if one of those guys goes down you're not going to see Jordan love any of that production fall off what if lamb doesn't show up what if lamb hurts his hamstring how confident are you then going in with Dak as your qb1 because where you draft him you're probably not going to draft another quarterback you shouldn't have to based on where you the draft Capital so for me there are just so many better options I'd rather have and Dak if that pocket passing efficiency doesn't carry over again Mike McCarthy someone I don't want to trust over year over year then I think you're going to get burned by Prescott it's interesting point too you make About Love Like Love is a quarterback that I tend to Target late in those drafts love also showed you without Christian Watson last year how good he could be imagine with Christian Watson there could even be more upside potentially for love which is a scary thing for the rest of the league that's for sure let's stick with Dallas for a second because Casey one of the guys that you're also circling as somebody who could be a potential bus is another Dallas Cowboy tight end Jake Ferguson so let's talk about Ferguson because he was kind of one of those pleasant surprises at tight end and a year that had a lot of really nice surprises at the position in fantasy uh people were terrified about tight end turned out to be not so bad as things typically do which means probably this year will be the inverse right we love tight end and now it's gonna all go to pot but let's talk about Ferguson why should people be potentially concerned about him not living up to his potential in 24 I'll preference this by saying I still have love for the tight ends but yeah this guy should likely hit a bit of a decline and I think Andrew kind of set it up perfectly depending on what takes place with Dak Prescott and another Trend or pattern that comes over the years is when there's question marks at the offensive line there's question marks at the dist distribution of the ball that's where Ferguson comes in for me they might need his hand in the dirt a little bit more this upcoming season to help things out you have Ezekiel Elliott who's going to want to get back up there in the yardage and not to mention is that the question marks at wide receiver their ground game is going to have to be a little bit more reliable and a lot more consistent Brock Hoffman on their Center what is that going to look like in the upcoming season Ferguson's physical guy even though he's really done well with his routes and people were surprised by this it's his physicality and his blocking abilities that kind of got him up the rankings at University of Wisconsin so if you haven't realized how much I nerd out about tight ends I know or at least I want to say that I know when a tight end is going to need to be more hand in the dirt versus you know going out for those routes and those passes and again another guy with something to prove Dak Prescott has a lot on the line right now while he's trying to figure out money and if it's even worth staying in Dallas I think at this point it's time for for him to put his sights elsewhere but all of that conundrum um behind an offensive line that has question marks and a wide receiving core that God knows what's going to happen Ferguson's got to help out so that's why I see his yardage kind of coming back a little bit his uh Red Zone play coming kind of back a little bit because he's got to help out Andrew let's bounce back to you with a a running back who had another League winning season last year uh we were able to get not one but two players from the same team the Rams that actually gave us League winners kyen Williams and pukaa now that stuff doesn't happen very often now kyen Williams had a history of some foot issues and now he's having more foot issues but it seems like things are going in the right direction here and everyone keeps telling us we shouldn't be worried it seems like you are because you've put him on the RB bus list potentially he's currently being drafted as the rb7 or rb8 off the board and you are not buying at that price let's talk about why no because I'm not drafting last year fantasy football winning team like that's what I'm not I'm trying to draft this year's fantasy football winning team so a lot of the guys on this list are players that in my opinion kind of had the perfect storm last year was Dak Prescott a quarterback kind of The Perfect Storm tyen Williams it could have not worked out better for him cam Acres got cut K Williams took over the the role and absorbed nearly every single touch in the Rams backfield because they didn't want to give the ball to anybody else and when he got hurt last year well they were like we still don't have any else to give the ball to so here you go k you're going to be back in the rb1 Bel power role that we've seen work with so many different running backs over the years whether it was been Todd Gurley cam Acres at one point Daryl Henderson but we've been down this road before sha McVey shurn and burn baby that's what he does with these running backs the minute that he finds somebody else better he moves on and he goes to somebody else and that's what I'm concerned about with the addition of Blake korm because Blake korm is a baller he is so good he's not even playing in the preseason because he's already established himself as a valuable piece of this offense Sean mcfay notorious for never playing anyone that he views valuable or as a starter in the preseason games lorm has never has not been in any preseason action so far so the way I look at it with Kiron is he's banged been banged up first two years in the NFL so I think for me you're looking at some of the injuries on the offensive line for the Rams already I just think that again looking at I look at bus from a systematic approach I look for what who checks off the boxes of a running back that has red flags that look like bus when you look back on the year and that's Ken Williams for me when the first thing about a running back talks about well his role in the offense is X and you're not talking about the player you're talking about how he's used as a piece well that's the concern because I think Blake km can do everything that kyen Williams can do and he cost an 11th round pick so yes maybe it's bumpy for the first month of the year maybe I'm not looking great well then you sell high on kyen Williams and then talk to me in October when Blake corm has a bigger role so for me I'm out on I'm out on BL or I'm out on kyen Williams very much in on Blake corm Casey what are your thoughts on Kiren Williams Because this is a system that you want to be a part of sha McVey and fantasy has been very good to us for the most part over the years and pretty clear but the one thing that's always been a little muddy after the Todd Gurley years has been the running back position is Blake Quorum uh and the Kiren Williams you know kind of coming out of nowhere last year combination enough for you to stay away from Kiron in 2024 yeah that on top of the fact that I don't think that the running back position has always been the most flattering or sexiest position for the Rams team I mean MC loves the chance when he has a quarterback that he trusts to air out the ball you've got Stafford coming back who should be on the healthier side we'll see what gauges over the next couple of weeks here but you know and and then especially the health of Cooper cup so you've got too many pieces here where the Rams are going to want to get back to their foundational style which is letting that ball rip and fly and then some of the competition they're going to have versus some secondaries this year they're not going to have to run the ball as much so I think that between the incoming guy and then giving back to their ways with health being on their side yeah I would jump in on the K Williams thing either I'm with Andrew on this one all right before we get to the next player on the list for Casey in terms of bus potential I want to remind everybody we're doing giveaways all season long and we've got a great one for you right now if you want a chance to win a sign Joe burrow helmet for free you don't have to do a damn thing well maybe one or two things from pristine auction.com too that's where this is coming from so you know it's verified go to fantasypros.com contest and complete the form and either download the fantasy pros draft Wizard app leave review for the podcast or follow us on X Instagram or Tik Tok at fantasypros the more of these actions you complete the more entries you receive it's like a Quest from Lord of the Rings and at the end instead of a ring you know what you get a Joe burrow autographed helmet and we'll be monitoring and announcing the winner right here on the channel so be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications to the YouTube channel of fantasy pros so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and you can claim your prize that Joe burrow helmet can be yours signed by Joe B himself not Joe pipia they decided that would be a little bit more valuable to have Joe burrow sign it instead again fantasypros.com contest go throw your hat in the ring for this helmet all right L that's a good one too I like the white Tang the Bengals helmet that is the sexy helmet at the end of the day love the all white can't get enough of it all right let's get to your next pick here Casey Isaiah Pacho is the guy on your list and this is an interesting one because this is a player in the fantasy football community I've seen a lot of analysts who love him this year and a lot of analysts that are fading him this year if Patrick Mahomes comes back into the 5,000 yard passing realm which is something the previous two seasons before last year's debacle is true what does that mean for Isaiah P's potential in 2024 why would it take a hit well we already know that I've have hard feelings when it comes to the Chiefs but putting my feelings aside you've got Xavier worthy coming into the mix here and the first thing that stood out with me in terms of Patrick Mahomes the backyard football style the Chiefs can play and his ability to make plays happen it's going to be the fact that Xavier Worley is coming in at 511 172 and having a solid camp and you're seeing a lot of spark out of Patrick Mahomes wanting to make connections with this guy well that reminds me of Tyreek Hill 510 180 to 90 pound is he's gonna kind of get that that fun spark in a receiver back not to mention is that Xavier Worthy is faster um coming out of the his 40 time was like 4.21 where he was about five to seven seconds less than Tyreek Hill so that was the first thing that I saw the next thing that I saw is that the Chiefs are going to be going up against a few more teams that have a better run stop defense so it's going to be a little bit more problematic for PCO to make things happen and then to your argument up between us on Sports grid the other day if Travis Kelce is healthy and his ankles feel good and he's all buttered up this season then it's gonna be a bigger season for him too so you just got a lot more supporting supporting roles supporting characters coming into the mix for this Chiefs offense and Peko was heavily relied on because there was a lot of spotty moments for the Chiefs last year so while he can still be helpful I just think that between some of these matchups I mean Falcons added to their defense it's not going to be an easy feat for the Chiefs when it comes to the Run game and then you've got these other Targets in the wide receiver room you've got guys who still have to fight for their job and you got Patrick Mahomes who changes his mind and the blink of an eye and with a Travis Kelsey that's healthy that's where the connection goes to so I just think the production Mode's going to change you know I struggle with Pacho because I really like the player I love the individual he's a local kid here not far from me in New Jersey but you have the upside of Devon hn right after him and then the steadiness of Rashad white after him as well and I look at those two picks and I just kind of say h do I really want to go for running back in such a typically pass heavy offense and last year was a bit of an anomaly for Patrick Mahomes because of so many failures epic failures at that from some of those guys in the wide receiver Corp back to you Andrew Erikson uh let's talk about another wide receiver on your list and his name is Nico Collins now this is a guy I'm drafting everywhere so we're gonna fight about this one I feel like because I think he's the clear number one uh tank Dell is fun Stefon Diggs is older and already a problem child it seems like I got no issue with Nico Collins at wide receiver 14 especially considering last year he finished as a wide receiver one so why am I wrong and you're right I think that's the end of the day that's the conversation to have I think that you're potentially overconfident of looking at him as the number one wide receiver on this team he plays who is I I don't know exactly I'm not exactly sure but that's why there's bus potential here with Nico Collins because I can't confidently say who's gonna be the number one leader in targets who's gonna lead the team in touchdowns I don't know I don't know who it's going to be and when I look at the prices of Stefan digs and tank Dell they cost so much less I'm taking on less Rick if n Collins has to be the number one to pay off those other guys don't have to be the number ones to pay off where they're going in drafts so looking at last year Nico Collins a lot of his production was boosted when there was nobody else to throw the ball to him and tank Dell put up nearly identical production where they were both healthy on the field tank Dell outgained him in yards over the last four games that they played together niiko Collins had a year three breakout tankel had a rookie breakout his first year in the NFL it took us three years to get here with niiko Collins yes the quarterback play I understand that but it still matters that he was able to do so much of his production with all those other guys not necessarily part of the picture here so for me that's my concern where you draft him in round two you expect him to be the number one what if week one comes along and then he doesn't lead the team in targets now they are playing the Colts week one so we probably will have a big week one so maybe after week two maybe after week week one Joey does the Victory lap on ER week one I will be coming on the show with a clown mask most likely but after week one I'm thinking that this isn't going to neily be a targeted concentration around Nico Collins and one of the things I looked at last year again looking at wide receiver busts players that perform well above expectation in terms of expected fantasy points per game Collins was wide receiver 21 expected fantasy points per game and he only dbo Samuel had more fantasy points expected than niik Collins did last year so I think he he played well above what he was expected based on his role and given that now he's fending off targets between two guys I'm really excited about with Diggs and T in this offense those are the reasons I'm just pushing the breaks I understand the upside case with NI Collins but with every upside case there is also a downside case that you know most people just don't like to talk about it's not good radio we want to talk about good things about players and not necessarily bad things well I mean this is more than just radio this is the fantasy pros live stream hello this is a big deal here uh I'm gonna go put my faith in the efficiency of Nico Collins that you're you're trashing him for a little bit little bit 80 receptions 109 targets eight touchdowns 12 197 yards finishes wide receiver nine last year a top 10 guy and you're going to give him to be a 14 look even if it does get a little muddy sometimes with the Texans I still think more often than not Nico is the guy that I want and I want to fight about this next guy with you too because this might be my favorite guy at the turn I always take Marvin Harrison Jr I keep coming back to the same thing of if you look at the last few years you've seen the league make a huge pivot number four alltime rookie receivers Justin Jefferson in 2020 1400 yards the after that Jamar Chase 1455 just in 2021 and then last year 2023 the alltime record holder hookahua at 1486 it's a wide receiver world and the rookies are dominating it and Marvin Harris at a zero out competition and you're telling me not to draft him why Andrew why because none of those guys that you just talked about were Fringe first round picks that you had to you had to draft part of the allore and why we want to draft rookie receivers doesn't have to do with their end of season production has to do with where you draft drafted them it matters the fact that all those rookies were so much cheaper than Marvin Harrison that's point of the that's point of buying into rookies that's why we like them because they're discounted but for some reason Marvin Harrison Jr is not discounted at all whatsoever even in the most homiest home leagues he's still going in The Fringe first round so again going back to wide receiver busts systematically what are they projections Marvin Harrison Jr is a projection and you may be right but why do I want to put all my faith into a projection with my first round pick second round pick when I could draft proven production at other positions or at the wide receiver position or if I I if I have to have some part of Marvin Harrison why don't I just draft Kyler Murray in like round nine as my quarterback and then I can benefit from all the Marvin Harrison that you love to talk about but then I take on none of the risk I get zero risk if maybe he's a better real life receiver for his rookie year than a fantasy wide receiver because I'm not denying the talent of Marin Harrison but I just think that it's a it's a bad value play honestly like I just think he's a bad value where you have to draft him it kind of sucks honestly that we're projecting him so highly and yeah so for those reason we're projecting him so highly because we've seen what happens with these slam dunk BigTime wide receivers when they come in the league now puka was not that guy but Jefferson and Chase were and that has been obviously where the league is trending so Casey you be the tiebreaker here Marvin Harrison Jr am I too much in love with the situation here with this terrible defense where they're going to be playing from behind a million times and I don't see anybody besides Trey McBride competing with him for targets I think 1,400 yards is in his range of outcomes what do you think about Harrison is he a bust or is he a draft despite the high ADP for you I'm taking him as a draft only because a the the lack of targets that they have but be the way that Murray can be injury-prone sometimes say that somebody else has to get a tap on the shoulder here you're gonna go to your one of one or one of two-ish targets um and then rallying from behind lck he says it tends to be the DNA of the Cardinals right now like I just think that this guy's going to end up getting hit with a lot of targets regardless he's either going to be the one guy to go to to help outside of McBride or he's going to be the one guy that they just continue to figure things out with along the way so I think he's in a perfect position with not much competition to get those reps in all right uh let's go to another BigTime wide receiver I just mentioned Justin Jefferson now all of a sudden his 2024 looks a little bit different now that the Savior JJ McCarthy is not going to be around for this season Sam darnold stuck all year with Justin Jefferson now I've seen him go already somebody messaged me they said they got him at the turn yesterday at 12 so his value is falling here the consensus ADP is wide receiver three wide receiver five somewh in that range that is not what's happening in the draft streets right now so Casey as a top five pick is he a bust and is a top is is a you know pick at 12 at the turn is he a value at this stage um I think more valuable probably at the 12 just because it's not like he's not going to be productive he's he's that guy um I think you mentioned earlier or somebody mentioned earlier here on the show how the inconsistent production between Addison they're still going to get him rotated in we've seen what Justin Jefferson can do down the stretch but it's the it's the Sam darnold effect here for me you're coming behind a shakyo line for the Vikings now they've got a lot of rebuild going on within their organization and a guy coming in barely barely hitting a 60% completion rate and so while we've seen some flattering moments out of darnold maybe back when he was with the Jets for a hot second then sure but I don't think we're going to get that quarterback and I think it's going to end up screwing with Justin Jefferson and plus think about where he got a lot of his massive yardage from those deep balls that he was able to connect on and that's not something that I see him and Sam darnold being able to do consistently so I think the yard is just going to drop off I think that he's going to have to try to look around a little bit I think that they also want to get Addison more involved also so I just don't think that this season is set up for the success of Jefferson as a top five receiver I think there is a little bit more value at 12 just because again he is going to be a key part here it just depends on what takes place with his quarterback ericon I want to get your take here because the stock is falling fast again you get Justin Jefferson at 12 I'm still gonna take him at 12 every single time I'm just gonna do it uh Casey makes a lot of good points for that too but as wide receiver three or the fifth overall player which is kind of that conversation where he was being drafted just a few weeks ago what's your opinion of Jefferson right now is he a guy that you've got to get the discount or are you a guy that who's taking Justin Jefferson regardless of where he is available for you no I think you got to get the discount I think that he he is discounted rightfully so because of the quarterback concerns I don't really find I'm not like actively fading Justin Jefferson like I don't go out in a draft be like I'm not taking this guy but I usually find myself not really ending up with him because I I talked about Bree Hall I like so he sometimes goes in the same area as Jefferson I like Chase more than just Jefferson so naturally kind haven't found myself drafting a lot of Jefferson but if I was picking you know at the turn which I usually don't like picking if Justin Jefferson was there I would that's who I would be definitely taking I wouldn't even think twice about it compared to some of these other second round wide receivers who sometimes go in round one depending on how you feel about a player like Jefferson but for me look the JJ McCarthy injury maybe hurts his an upside case with Jefferson because maybe he could have come in had a Stroud type season not very likely but there was always that chance that C they could offer something darnold didn't but thing for me is Jefferson knows whose quarterback is the rest of the way 17 Game season going to be Sam darnold like there's no oh we got to switch reps who's taking reps with the ones it's Jefferson it's darnold like that's his ride or die so I think that works from a standpoint of darnold is playing for a contract year here so if Dar really wants to show other teams that he can deliver and be a quarterback at the NFL level he knows I need to Target Justin Jefferson 200 times because that's my best chance of putting up the best mbers at the best stat line at the end of the year so I can get a job in the NFL as a starter Allah Gino Smith Allah Baker Mayfield we've seen this with a bunch of retread quarterbacks so I think Jefferson's going to be his guy and it may be ugly at sometimes but 20 Targets in a game it'll get you something it may be ugly lots of times it is Sam darn and perhaps come October he'll start seeing those ghosts again it is Halloween season uh great stuff here from both of you some big names here on the potential bus list I want to thank Casey Hudson for joining us here again check out our amazing work on sports and give her a follow too because she covers everything oh my God she does Wimbledon we did together she's doing NFL she's doing hockey she's one of the best NHL folks out there too she does it all thanks so much for giving us some time today Andrew is gonna stick around but when we come back we're going to have Jamie Eisenberg from CBS joining us to talk about wide receivers who could bounce back in 2024 you're not going to want to miss this so don't go anywhere we'll be right back after this quick break let's get real here for a minute you know some mock drafts while fun will not actually help you win your league you wait and you wait for the draft to start and someone drafts a defense or a kicker in round seven and you think to yourself well there's 15 minutes of my life I'm never going to get back no one has time for that so I'm going to show you how I prepare for my drafts meet the Draft simulator the Draft simulator was built by our talented team at Fant Pros to solve everything that's wrong with mock drafts and it's totally free it's the only tool that goes through your league history and matches how your league drafts so your mock drafts actually feel like the real thing it's going to help you get better at drafting the draft Simer goes over rankings from hundreds of experts including yours truly and it tells you who's the best pick it's also going to tell you which positions are drying up what other teams need and what they're likely to do next at the end of every mock you get your draft grade and the most detailed breakdown in fantasy don't waste your time with bad mock drafts my favorite feature pick analysis you can test out different strategies and see what works best work less and win more with fantasy pros Draft simulator for free test it out today at fantasypros.com Bounce-Back Wide Receivers with Jamey Eisenberg welcome back everybody to fantasyfest live here on the YouTube channel if you haven't already make sure you subscribe like the stream as well drop your comments below because well we love to hear from you and get your questions answered also and Andrew Erikson back and look who just came into town he's got the mini helmets behind him too those are my favorite things Jamie Eisenberg from CBS I remember as a kid because I'm old I put the quarter in there and the grocery store and you twist that thing hoping to get a good helmet and next thing you know uh you know it wasn't like the cool Houston Oiler one it wasn't anything I get like a New York Giants helmet and that's just kind of boring for me Jamie do you have those same fond memories of the little mini helmets oh we're on mute we got to unmute you there for a second oh sorry um when uh like my kids will go to uh where they have the little the things with the candy you know it used to be like such a joy to get the candy like I won't let my kids near that no way that's bad parenting yeah any of that Candy's been in there probably since the time you and I were kids that's right don't eat that kids see already Jamie Eisenberg giving you good Andrew doesn't know those things oh Andrew doesn't know Andrew did you ever eat those candies from those things where you would twist the uh you know the grocery store you know like those big metal handles there and then like the little gumball would drop out I only vaguely remember the ones that had like the fruit and they had like the oranges and the bananas but the banana did not taste like actual banana I'm pretty sure there was nothing actually real in any of that but what is real today of course bounce back wide receivers and there are a lot of big names on the list here to talk about and we're going to start with one of the bigger ones here it's Cooper cup because this is that Boomer bust guy I know I've been on with you at CBS a few times and we've talked Jamie about Cooper cup and I keep saying for me he's a guy that I feel really comfortable with as a wide receiver three and that big wide receiver build as a wide receiver two I start to panic a little bit and get a little concerned so I know everything is always sunshine and rainbows a training camp but are you somebody that is buying into all the positive Buzz of Cooper Cup who's currently being drafted around wide receiver 18 as a guy who can really bounce back play a full season and be an asset in 2024 so you know I I'm generally apt to avoid guys at this age you know and when they start to show you some decline or fade or just a injury history you know it it's easy just to run away but then you just look at the situation and the fact that he came back in better shape and now the other guy is hanged up in pukan nakua who also has an injury track record and you know that this offense is going to find ways to get him open so I think at the right price he's worth buying into you know if you're going to say Cooper cup is going to save my fantasy team or be the headliner of my fantasy team like he was the last couple of Seasons or certainly before the the breakdown happened last year then I think you're making a huge mistake if he is your number three receiver I think that's amazing now most likely if he's going 18th overall uh I think for us you know we're starting to see his ADP on CBS start to creep into the return um so you know 25 26 in that range um I'm okay with it there I'm not okay with him as a round two pick so um if you if you start receiver receiver he's your third receiver great if he's your first receiver I'm a little bit icky with it um and and the uh the longer that pukan Thea remains out and clearly you know you you buy Shawn mcvey's honesty because he's usually you know tried and true with that so nkua should be fine for week one but imagine a world where there is no p AA and Cooper cup is back to being that guy again you know so he can still return some pretty good value so it's just a matter of I guess you know where you're drafting him how soon you're drafting him and how much you want to buy into a 31y wide receiver Andrew Erikson you just turned 30 so you understand the plight of Cooper cup you're already in Decline I could tell uh Andrew let's talk about this because there were even moments last year where you saw the flashes of oh there's the Cooper Cup right we had that uh game where he had seven catches for 148 and a touchdown against Arizona uh 115 against Baltimore with a touchdown 11 back toback weeks against Washington and then other incompletes and he did miss the first four weeks of the Season altogether did not play week 18 so being on the field right availability is the best ability everyone always says and Cooper cup hasn't given you a lot of that in the last two years and frankly you know going into the giant breakout incredible season that he had a few years ago where he broke fantasy he had struggled at times as well with some of the help so where do you stand with Cooper cup are you somebody that's willing to take the risk or do you have to quantify it some way where it makes sense for the roster that you're creating I am 100% out Cooper cob I I I should have included maybe on the bus than I was talking about him earlier but I just for me it's a point of I just don't think we're gonna ever get the game same guy we had I know that they're saying he looks healthy he's good to go this is what they always say about every single player that's way past their Prime like he's older he showed shines of decline these are the things that are the red flags that tell us to stay away and like Michael Thomas glowing reviews last year Derek Carr he looks like the same old Michael Thomas this is great and then what happened he barely played like I'm not saying Cooper cup is going to miss the entire season but just I I just don't want to kept chasing Cooper cup and that season that happened now three years ago right you know even though he was productive in 2022 for half a year I just have seen too much for me the milk doesn't unspoil like we've had the super cup and this is where I get concerned so the fact that he is starting to go in round two that absolutely terrifies me again we talked about Nico Collins Marvin I'm taking those guys clearly over Cooper cup rather much those players but now you're starting to see him go in that similar range so I for me he's too expensive and there's too much risk for him for me let me give you the inverse because you said no never not at all what if you are in a draft with a bunch of you know people like you myself who are kind of fading cup a little bit who a little afraid if he went down to wide receiver 25 range is that enough for you to buy in let's say over a guy like Stefon Diggs or over a guy like Z flowers is that where Cooper cup you might even test the waters or you're just saying nope I'm out I'm done I've been hurt too many times and I can't love again so I've been trying to move him up in the rankings in based on the puka niua injury and every time I try to move ahead of another receiver I'm thinking to myself I'd rather just have this other receiver instead and so that's that's the the reality that I'm facing with Cooper cup and again I understand the being on the because if he is healthy then I'm going to look wrong but what has he showing us on the field the last two years that's going to suggest that he is going to be healthy and be the old Cooper cup I don't see it these reports coming out of camp this is what they're supposed to say this what they're always gonna say so for me I'm just shying away there's other receivers I like much more all right Jamie I want to go to another guy on your list here T Higgins another guy that I keep drafting everywhere and I'm getting him as a three in a lot of drafts and uh that to me is just absurd uh we were talking earlier in Fantasy Fest um when we had Jake Cel on we were talking about him uh as a complete value as a guy in an offense is going to be a throw first situation he's being drafted as wide receiver 28 but the body of work for healthy T Higgins with healthy Joe burrow is far greater than that I mean he was wide receiver 17 just in 2022 where he had 74 catches seven touchdowns for 1029 so in your opinion why is T Higgins who did have some contract issues well nothing really got solved he's back why is he a guy you're betting on in 2024 to make a bounceback well first off the value is incredible you know so you're getting a guy that has huge bounceback potential I mean he should be the poster child for this subject you know just in terms of what he has the ability to do when healthy and you assume motivated you know some people will come back and say well if he has a minor injury or two you know will he sit out because he's afraid of something ruining the the the potential of a long-term deal he still has to prove himself he's gonna get paid no matter what but if he wants to get that Mega deal that these receivers are getting and probably his teammates going to get which we hope uh he's got to go out there and produce and so far in Camp he looks fantastic in the preseason performance at least the first game he looked fantastic um when he's on his game he's one of the best receivers in football you know and the best part about it is he's a one b and so we're dealing with a with a pretty significant hold out situation with Jamar Chase right now and if you want to believe chadow josino and we're gonna see you know maybe Jamar Chase Miss some time in the regular season well that's the caveat that that you get with t Higgins if Chase gets hurt we saw it 2022 the four games that he was out Higgins becomes a top 10 if not top five caliber fantasy option so you're getting a guy that's a wide receiver to at a huge discount at wide receiver 28 if that's where he's getting drafted and then the potential it's very similar to Devonte Smith whenever one of the other guys on the Eagles misses times Devonte Smith just his numbers pop whether mostly he's been Dallas cter uh but that's the setup for for Higgins right now so his price tag is amazing the potential production on its own without anything changing is amazing and if there were to be a Jamar Chase injury he could be an absolute star the flip side of that is we saw Joe bur Miss time last year and we had a couple good Jake brownie games with or t Higgins had a couple good games with Jake brownie but that's not what you want to hope for you want to hope for Joe bur out there 100% Jamar Chase if he has to miss a game or two t Higgins really pops even if Chase is there though Higgins will be a must start fantasy option and you know I think top 20 upside I love it and to me again the floor is there the ceiling is there the opportunity should again injury befall Jamar Chase could even grow into something even better so a lot more outs as they say on the positive side for t hiin Andrew let's get to one of your guys on this list of bounceback wide receivers and let's talk a little bit about Jaylen waddle because Jaylen wad has been a dude that you have been all in on as IFI uh the ADP has come up a little bit since July I remember around July 1 we were doing some shows together early on you and I were looking at each other and scratching our heads going what in the world is going on here uh you see the ecrs at wide reer 15 but the 80P wide receiver 20 still not catching up so the experts are saying hey every body they're screaming draft Jaylen Waddles sooner and the ADP just isn't quite catching up I don't understand why that is Andrew walk us through again why Jaylen Wadd in your opinion is a guy who is gonna bounce back and it bounce back in a big way in 2024 well the reason the ADP is not catching up is because everybody's drafting guys like Cooper cup Nico Collins Marvin Harrison Drake London all the guys no more disparaging Marvin Harrison Jr in this program I told you in the last segment I don't hate everyone in round two from wide receiver it's just I'm circling my guy as Jaylen W like that's the guy I want out of the bunch because for me he checks off all the boxes he's done it before in two different ways he's been a wide receiver one as a rookie and then alongside Tyreek Hill in his second year last year banged up with injuries still had over a thousand receiving yards but what held him back four touchdowns what's going to happen in this Dolphins offense this year are we going to see the backfield score 30 plus touchdowns combined between Raheem moer H Chan again or are we going to see Jaylen Wadd regress positively in terms of his touchdowns and score double digits I think that's going to happen he's too talented of a player former first round pick former top 10 overall pick that what have Tyreek kilus again going back to these number two these real life number two wide receivers they have this untapped potential where if that Alpha takes a step back gets hurt banged up well then what happens Jaylen W could be the highest scoring wide receiver any single week in that Dolphins offense and that's even with Tyreek Hill on the team so for all those reasons that's why I just have so much and jayen W again he has the connection with two he's played with Tua since Alabama that's the connection I want to buy into and this Dolphins offense is going to be super explosive their defense oh my God I don't know if they have any defensive lineman left everyone keeps retiring so I think it's gonna be shootout after shootout in Miami and I think Jaylen W is gonna be a huge part of it so for me again I'm not taking stabs on these more projection base wide receivers in his range I'm taking the proven production with Jaylen wad I'm G to draft him as much as I can wad is proven I mean I know it was two seasons before we got hurt but those were some very valuable Seasons Jamie where do you stand on Wadd are you as Pro Jaylen Wadd as Erikson and I are this year top 12 guy round two pick yeah I I think you're looking at you know the Andrew nailed it and and we saw it last year the Jets game one of the best secondaries in football he tore him up you know and and that I'm sorry that was a game Tyreek Hill missed um there there's just so much upside here and you know I I think first off you want to see him Health he's dealing with something in practice that's keeping him out so that's a little concerning for what we dealt with last year you know so you don't want to see anything you know keep him off the field that being said um I I think the whole Old El Beckham signing you know may have scared some people a little bit that they're going to have a name there that could take away from you know maybe both these guys but nobody's running away from Tyreek Hill I also think going back to last year there was the whole story and I think this impacted Jaylen wd's numbers a little bit getting Tyreek killed 2,000 yards that was something the dolphins really tried to do they tried to get that for Tyreek Hill and I think that took away a little bit from uh wd's overall production you know the inj were the biggest part of it but still he's he's got so much upside and there's just so much to love about this that defense is going to be a problem the offensive Line's a concerned too just keep that in mind you know so we could see you know Tu on his back a little bit so if you are concerned about Wadd just put that in the back of your mind because we know what that was like for Wadd two years ago you know when Tu was you know in and out of the lineup but I still think just based on what he's capable of doing what you're talking about and and you said it the receivers in his range he should absolutely go ahead of Cooper cup if anybody's making that decision you're makinging a mistake love it uh yeah big Jaylen waddle fan this year and all three of us are screaming at you guys right now please draft him as often as you possibly can the man also got paid follow the money they believe in Jaylen waddle otherwise they wouldn't be throwing contracts at him next guy on the list is another one who's going a little bit later more like wide receiver 35 on most people's boards here in the expert consensus rankings it's Chris Godwin of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers now Jamie this is a player that has given us some really solid fantasy productivity before he has has missed some time here and there they're talking about moving him back into the slot and moving him into that situation with Dave Canalis gone as the offensive coordinator there is a little bit of uncertainty of a Ken Baker Mayfield sustain all the progress from last year or is it going to be Gino Smith 2.0 where Things fall off the map where do you stand here with Godwin is it just you can't pass up the player at the value or do you really see him as somebody's going to be truly an asset this season yes yeah I all the above um I I I think you know you saw last year and he talked about this uh one of my colleagues Pete prisco covers the NFL for you know 30 plus years was in Bucks camp and and got a chance to speak to Chris and he said he finally feels back to himself after dealing with the ACL from a couple years um I do think going back in the slot is huge for him now he's not going to be Tom Brady Chris Godwin because of Baker Mayfield because of the different type of quarterback clearly that we're looking at here even in I'll take a 50-year old Tom Brady over Baker Mayfield right now but um we saw the last five games you know after the complaints the Carolina game where he had no catches on three targets whatever it was you know broke the streak um he out targeted Mike Evans in the final five games of the season and I think that matters but I really think just him going back in the slot's going to be huge he's not going to be a top 15 caliber player like we like he was in his Heyday pre ACL tear but top 30 top 25 maybe top 20 is is certainly within the realm of possibility and we're talking about again you know second you know tier or number two receiver or at least perceived number two receiver on on these teams teams Mike Evans is 31 we saw the one game last year where Evans got banged that was early in the season and Chris godman was an absolute monster in that game and so if Evans does miss any time again you're seeing the the potential upside of what Chris Godwin can be and this is somebody that yes he's getting older he's not at that Cooper cup age where you have to worry about it so he's not showing you the breakdown potential but he does have a pretty good resume and so I still think that there's the potential of him to get back to that caliber of player again not to the same Heights but pretty close to it so at the cost he's easy to draft and somebody you can take if if you really go receiver heavy a number four receiver um I wouldn't be opposed though if he's my third receiver on my team all right before we get to the next guy on Andrew's list and I can assure you it's one I'm very excited to talk about don't forget about the cheat sheet Creator that's available for you at fantasy pros if you're tired of all the draft day uncertainty the Chi-Chi Creator is your personal guide to perfect League specific rankings you can visualize your path to Victory as you add tiers you can sync your league for free to craft your custom rankings ensuring that every pick you make is strategic it's tailored to your league setting specifically enter your draft with confidence sync your league for free today at fantasypros.com draft Wizard or at Fantasy Football Draft Wizard app and use the chatchi Creator to dominate all of your fantasy football drafts now one guy that I am drafting everywhere and Andrew Ericson might have fought with me a little bit earlier in the last segment but we are back to being friends after Jaylen Wadd conversation it is Christian Watson the upside at wide receiver 40 is absurd sometimes he's going even later than that if I'm wrong I'm wrong my fantasy team will live on but if I'm right and Jordan love plays as well as he did last year this guy to me Andrew could be a League winner let's talk about Watson and what you think his upside is in 2024 yeah Watson was one of those examples of the projected breakout guy one year that totally misfires and then gets discounted significant the following year and that's when they actually do fire on the breakout but the best part is you don't have to take any risk there there's no risk involved really with taking a shot on Christian Watson because when this guy is on the field you know he's going to produce over his last 15 games he's averag 13.3 points per game same as Jamar Chase has averaged points per game from 2023 this guy has been a wide receiver one in fantasy points when he's on the field and healthy again that's the big question but it's more than well baked into his wide receiver 40 80P you look at betting odds which always kind of like a fun thing to look in the fantasy lens he's in the top 10 shortest odds to lead the NFL touchdown catches if Jordan love has a monster year and he improves after what he did as a firsttime starter chrisan Watson's gonna have a massive part in it there's no doubt in my mind that he's gonna be part of that explosion potentially from Jordan love taking another step in his second year as a full-time starter so for me I'm not forgetting what I saw as a rookie and even last year again going back to touchdowns we have four number one wide receivers on the Green Bay Packers so how do we get guy to stand out who catches the most touchdowns well last year wats had 15 Endzone targets during the regular season and postseason combined that ranked sixth overall among players the betting odds are telling us that hey he has the most touchdown upside of this bunch and that's what I'm going to chase outside the top 36 wide receivers now Jamie you and I typically share the same board we always ear in on the same players it's why I hate seeing you in any expert League Draft that I'm in because I know it's going to be a long day at the office we're just going to be fighting over the same guys is Christian Watson another one of these players that you and I are going to be fighting over in 2024 put him up put him up yeah I think uh I think for sure you know Andrew said it you know he's he's different than the other three number one guys there and I'm sure if you add M ask Matt laflor he'd probably say B Melton's a number one guy too um it's just it's just one of those receiving cores where you know there's going to be a lot of diversity but one guy when he's right stands Above the Rest and that's Christian Watson you know and so uh I'm hopeful he can stay healthy you know I'm I'm a old school guy I still like to see these thiry year receivers when they've shown you something go into that season you know I I uh when I first got this job many moons ago it was um I got a chance to speak to a lot of you know older receivers Derry rice Chris Carter those type of guys I'm only doing that because Joe likes when my name drop I gotta pick them all up after the show now they uh they all told me you know the third year is when they get the rapport with their quarterback they understand the routy they understand coverage and for this guy I mean clearly he just has to stay on the field because you know the speed is Elite you know the playmaking ability is Elite and you know just the hamstrings right now have been a problem so hopefully they solved it the cost is amazing for what the upside is like you said Joe he's not going to wreck your fantasy team if you draft him in this range and so if for me I I don't like to leave a draft and Andrew and I were kind of joking at this at the flex draft um with without one of the Packers receivers just because they're they're fun and there's upside really one through four um the the joke you know Andrew looked at our board said no Davian Wicks what's wrong with you guys and I was like oh let me take wi oh and I missed him I wanted him you know I didn't get him but I got Watson one for me I Target first just because again if he hits there there's there's lottery ticket upside with with what he can do all right uh and by the way you know what the worst part about that whole thing is Jamie the one time I've ever actually gotten to interview or be with and talk to a real live active NFL wide receiver guess who was there Andrew Jamie Eisenberg in the room with me so it's like I can't even brag to him about it because he's right there with me doing the same one well at least you have a witness now people will believe you that's good I know but it doesn't matter it's not cool I can't be cool like Jamie all right let's get to another one of the guys on the list here uh and Andrew you've got Calvin Ridley out there as a player potentially uh that you think give me the 30 second to a minute on why people should be drafting Calvary Ridley in 2024 Ridley had 76 catches on 136 targets for over a thousand yards and six touchdowns last year and he was a bust it's because we put expectations on a guy that had missed so much time in the NFL that it was impossible for him to not really be a bust so for me I think that another year Back to Football an an NFL season under his belt for an older player that missed so much time in an offense that I expect to be much more pass happy we've seen in previous stints with Tennessee Titans there's no more Derrick Henry and this DeAndre Hopkins knee injury concerns me he is an older receiver too so even though he had the propor with Levis entering the year well he's already missed so much time so I think Bradley's going to be the clear wide receiver one of this offense he's wide receiver 37 ADP like Calvin really we were drafting the top 15 receivers last year which was out of control but now it's it's come for so much the other way because people hate Ridley because of how badly he burned them I think that he's a easy bounceback candidate he's never finished worse than wide receiver 25 in a season where he's been fully healthy Jamie you've got two more wide receivers to talk about on your list the first is Deontay Johnson the next is Curtis Samuel and both of these guys are very intriguing I want to start with Deontay Johnson because R I continue to struggle is I get it last year Adam thelon kind of came out of nowhere and he was a big Target hog and in PPR leagues he became a very you know a pretty good value off the waiver wire basically and now Deontay Johnson has come in is it going to be Adam thielen again can Dave Canales fix Bryce young and all the inefficiencies that they had last season a lot of problems with the Carolina offense so why is Deontay Johnson still potentially a fantasy bounceback despite all those potential negatives I do think we'll see a better Bryce young I'm not the biggest fan but I do think better offensive line play better coaching will help him across the board and certainly the addition of Deontay Johnson will hopefully bring out the best of him and we've seen this formula before you know where you bring in a veteran receiver you know to a Young quarterback and it does good things in some cases does wonders Josh Allen got Stefan digs he was great Tu Tunga got Tyreek Kell he was great Deontay Johnson's not that guy but he is going to make uh Bryce young better and I think Canalis will make you know Bryce young better you mentioned it with the baker Mayfield conversation we've seen Canalis in Seattle got a great year out of Gino Smith got a great year out of Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay hopefully does the same thing with this passing attack but I do think when you talk about what he has been he has shown the ability to get open he has shown you the ability to not score touchdowns there's negative but he's shown you the ability also to uh you know be a pretty good playmaker in some unfavorable situations with some bad quarterbacks so we'll see if Bryce young can support Deontay Johnson to be at least a number three receiver I don't have him ranked anywhere close to the top 20 I think he's 37th for me uh but again you know similar to Christian Watson he's not going to break your fantasy team if you invest in him he's the worst receiver that we've talked about so far so again you know no no huge expectations but I do think that th is going to fade to the you know back of the bunch a little bit at least behind not only Johnson but I also hope Xavier liette or Legette or however we're saying his name these days uh the rookie receiver that they brought him South Carolina hope those are the two top Target Getters for Carolina's offense because I think they have more upside than Adam Thelen but in terms of PPR Deontay Johnson is he 100 catch guy probably not 80 I think that's realistic if he stays healthy and so cheap option can get you some good receptions if he finds the end zone five or six times he'll be pretty happy about it Andrew do you feel the same way about Deontay Johnson that maybe those fullo PPR leagues he's kind of a nice wide receiver four5 guy that you could throw in there on you know the flex spot or in by weeks and feel pretty good about maybe double digit targets there yeah I think that he's one of these players that you're not going to circle him as oh Deontay Johnson League winner but Deontay Johnson value pick every single time when I need a wide receiver three four yes every single time Deontay Johnson i' have more of him if I wasn't drafting so much Chris Godwin we'll squeeze one more in here Curtis Samuel uh the Buffalo Bills wide receiver core is wide open for debate I don't know if anybody's got the definitive answer for it some people will tell you Keon Coleman some people will tell you khil Shakir some people just pivot all together and say Dalton King K but I have heard a lot of people Jamie talk about Curtis Samuel as maybe the guy to watch for and when you consider some of the ADP that you're looking at again wide receiver 53 51 he's going in that uh pretty deep dark range at wide receivers so why is Curtis Samuel in your opinion somebody who is poised to break out what do you see potentially on the horizon for him well I I think it's more bounceback you know I don't think Breakout but I I think that's break I meant to say pardon me I meant to say yeah yeah um I I think I'm only into hour two this is the problem here you know I mean usually hour four or five that's when these things start happening we we've all been there on these on these Marathon shows you guys are doing a great job um the thing well first off let's let's let's clarify I gave the list before the turf toe injury for Samuel so hopefully he's going to be okay that's that's a big part of this you never want to hear those type of things but you said it the ADP is is is free for what might be Josh Allen's go-to guy and I don't think that's going to be the case he's my third favorite bills receiver I think Coleman's upside is clearly you know higher and I'm a I'm a CLE shakure guy I think what we saw at the end of last season will will somewhat carry over I don't think any of these guys are difference makers right away Coleman by the end of the season could have like a rashy rice type impact you know where he takes off in the second half but you're tying yourself to one of the best quarterbacks in football and a very ambiguous receiving court right now and the thing that's encouraging and you know I'm sure you guys have talked about this as ad nauseum is the connection with Joe Brady the offense coordinator who he had the success with when they were in Carolina together so there'll be some Gadget plays he may be you know the the slot receiver he may be the second outside guy I don't think he's going to be the alpha I do think that we're going to see you know if a pecking order of targets he's probably fourth you know when you factor and even James Cook so but you just got to understand no risk there is zero risk that if he hits to what he was with Joe Brady or if he hits to become the best Bills wide receiver you just struck gold with one of your I don't know third or fourth last round picks so I don't want to overvalue Curtis Samuel but I also very similar to the Packers receivers if I walk away with one of those three guys Coleman Shakir or Samuel I'm pretty happy with that just for what could become in this Buffalo off in this are you better off drafting Keon Coleman or making trades for him in week six I would think making trades for him in week six but again just depends how far how far he falls you know I think the the the snap counts you know it's funny like you know we get so excited about snap counts and in the fantasy Community you know every you know Joe Mo fantasy player who who is our lifeblood you know they just see no catches they go I'm not touching him he hasn't got a catch in the preseason why would I want that you know but he's played every snap though but he's played every snap there you go uh we're gonna get traded though all three of us in just a moment Jamie Heisenberg thanks so much for hanging out with us today on the Fantasy Fest program Andrew Ericson is gonna take a break as well and I'm gonna tap out because the birthday boy is gonna take over make sure you wish Ryan warmley a very happy birthday I think he's turning 21 this is a big one for him no he's older than you even but yes wish the worm a happy birthday and joining Ryan warmley Pat Fitz Morris Terell Ferman they're going to break down some other fantasy Assets in fact they're going to talk about the bounce backs at the running back position that's one you can't miss so don't go anywhere Fantasy Fest rolls on when we return right after this quick break do you ever wish you could wave a magic wand and know how your league mates are going to draft how they'll use their pick how early they draft quarterbacks how much do they overdraft rookies well I wouldn't be bringing this up if I didn't have a tool just for that meet draft Intel with draft Intel you'll know how your league mates draft better than they do draft Intel will analyze your League's draft history to detect patterns in your League's drafts then it'll show you how your league makes make decisions with their picks get team specific and League wide patterns to understand what direction your draft might go at a higher level with that knowledge you'll get the complete story of your League's drafting history and you can prepare accordingly the best part you can bring those patterns into Draft simulator and practice against them that's right the most realistic mock drafting tool available will now be tailored specifically to the people in your league the Bots you draft against will combine our pick algorithm with your League's Intel to create mock drafts that feel like real drafts this means every mock draft will provide you with realistic tailormade scenarios to help make your draft prep more effective than ever before take my leagues for example my uncle loves to go heavy on quarterback draft inel can tell me that and highlight during the mock draft process hey if he's picking between you on the end he's probably going to take a quarterback here so if there's one guy you like left you better be sure to take him draft smarter and stay ahead of your league with draft Intel don't wait until draft day get an edge over your league mates today with draft Intel at fantasypros.com inel Bounce-Back Running Backs I am Ryan warmly here stepping in for Joey P thank you so much for the kind uh birthday wishes from Joe uh I don't appreciate Ericson throwing me under the bus letting everybody know that I am 32 I feel very washed up now I was telling my friends over the weekend that you know when you're in you're like 30 and 31 it's like okay I'm like barely in my 30s now it's like I'm just in my 30s so Fitz let me start this off by apologizing for all of the old jokes I've made for you over the years very nice yeah at 32 you have pretty much hit the age Cliff uh Worm but it's great to be able to do a show with you on your birthday and great to do my first fantasy Pro show with Terell yes yes Terell we we had our first show last week and we talked about how excited we were to do the the Fest here as well I didn't realize it was your guys' first two shows together of course we have as everybody can see Pat fitzmorris Terrell Ferman here um you know Terrell very new to the company here so we wanted to get you on the Fest and uh get you started off here on the right foot with our big uh five hour live stream we we only gave you one segment I think so it's not too overwhelming I hope yeah one segment and I already messed up by not sending in my players with enough time so uh sorry to the production team in the back that you got to deal with me with no Graphics but you know we're good we're we're gonna have a great time it's gonna be great we're we're a team of Pros here that's why they call us the fantasy pros so somehow we'll figure out a way to make do here uh but no thank you again to Joe and to everybody at fantasy pros for the birthday wishes this is my of the three fantasy I've been involved in this is the second one that has been on my birthday so you know what it's just that time of year I should get used year out going forward uh we only we've only got 30 minutes with the three of us here together schedule every single one for worm's birthday for the rest of time what are we doing F this year it's whenever August 19th that's where're yeah hijack his birthday yes exactly uh I I'm hoping we don't do that uh let's jump in uh you guys just heard the bounceback wide receiver segment with Joe Erikson and Jamie Eisen thank you to Jamie for joining for that and for all the guests who have been on in the first two hours already we are talking bounce back running backs as a quick reminder for everyone all of our 2024 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com rankings we did get names from Fitz so we're going to start off with what he provided here and Fitz before we jump in because I think people will will kind of notice that some of the names that you provided are guys that are going relatively early in drafts there's some first round names there's some second round names there's guys that are being drafted somewhat aggressively so when you sat down to kind of come up with your five running backs how did you define bounceback and was there a certain threshold that they needed to be at last year that you thought made them eligible for this list basically just players we think are going to do better this year than last year and in some cases substantially better and I I think that's the case with all of the guys on this list I I think that's fair and let's just start off with the number one who's one of my favorite running backs this year it's bejan Robinson um he's rb2 uh you know among the position his ADP is rb3 so it's RB in the the rankings ADP rb3 so again this is a first round player fits depending on how uh risk averse you are with Christian mcaffry this might be one of the first two running backs off the board in your leagues what defines him as a bounceback player for you yeah uh he's got a bounceback from Arthur Smith War I it does it does feel strange to have this abundantly talented running back uh listed as a bounceback player but last year he was rb9 in a half Point PPR scoring RB 17 in fantasy points per game bejon had 41% of the Falcons rushing attempts last year and even if you filter out the quarterback runs he was still under 50% 47.2% of Atlanta's rushing attempts by non- quarterbacks which uh seems kind of suboptimal to have a guy with this level of talent carrying the ball that infrequently and uh Arthur Smith is out Zack Robinson is in as the Falcons new offensive coordinator and um you know we can't guarantee completely optimal play calling but I think it will be more optimal than Arthur Smith's uh play calling which sometimes is just too much of the vanity play calling and being cute and running reverses to to Scotty Miller and cadero hodj like just give beon the darn ball Fitz I know that Bree Hall is not on this list that we're GNA be talking about but we're not allowed legally to talk about Bean Robinson without comparing him to Bree Hall it's been one of the more fun debates of the fantasy offseason so as it stands right now on August 19th do you have a preference between Bree and beon yeah slight preference for beon um one has had major knee surgery in the last two years and one hasn't that's very reasonable uh Terrell same question here uh do you have a preference between bejan and Bree just because that does seem to be one of the kind of skeleton keys to the season in the first round at least not really actually I think they're kind of neck and neck for me I I've actually kind of starting to talk myself more into bean I think I was early Bree but now I'm switching over to Bean and it's really a lot of look at where he was lining up like he wasn't just in the backfield he was lining up in the slot he was uh first in terms of running backs uh routes lined up in the slot in the NFL and he was second in terms of outride the only person that was ahead of him was Rashad white and yet all of that and there's a numerous amount of wide not wide receiver but running backs including Breece Hall Travis etn jayen Warren ran white Christian mcaffrey Alvin CRA who had more receptions than him and so I think that now with Kurt Cousins SL Michael pennick it sounds like we might be getting the Matt Flynn Russell Wilson uh Fiasco that happened way back with the Seahawks going on in Atlanta but either way regardless of his cousins regardless of his pinic I think that both of those two guys are way more talented than Desmond Ritter and whatever the Falcons were doing at quarterback last year where they can actually get him the ball and get him those receptions and that's going to be the thing that pushes him over the top he's a great Runner and that's just going to make him an rb1 off grip but to be one of the top one of the very best that receptions loow increasing is going to really do it for him if everything hits for bean there's there's nothing that he's not providing you he he can give you touchdowns he can be that goaline back he can give you a ton of receptions he has that skill set and obviously he can be a Workhorse now we'll see if they do that they do like Tyler alir we know the history with this Rams kind of coaching offense is they like to ride one guy we saw it with Kiren Williams when he was healthy we've seen it with Todd Gurley in the pass these guys in the Shawn mcy tree like to have that Workhorse back so if it is bean I mean like this the sky is the limit like right it's you could throw out any cliche you want about the type of year he could have and I wouldn't say it's too much like there is a very clear world and again you could say this too about Bree or healthy mcaffry or some of these other guys but there is a clear path to you could paint The Narrative of a year from now bejan is the consensus number one pick in every draft like that is a very reasonable outcome that could happen and Fitz the other thing with bejan that I like and Terrell started to allude to this is I like that there's Talent on this offense but there's not overwhelming Talent it's not like the 49ers where you have to feed George KD and Christian mcaffrey and Brandon auk and dbo Samuel I mean it's a lot of names here it's Kyle pittz it's Drake London and it's bejon and that's basically it so I really like how concentrated it is in this off between those three well okay okay d movie actually do like but he's not on the same level don't don't don't don't respect Darnell Mooney like that either he's competing he's competing what do you think Fitz is is Mooney somebody that you know could kind of eat into the the lineup or is what I'm making is what I'm saying making sense as far as how concentrated this offense could be I mean it does it's uh it should be a more narrow usage tree than it was last year when there were all these Touches for uh Cordo Patterson and Janu Smith or whatever um but Terell does make a good point with Mooney he did get a lot of guaranteed money and by the way shout out to Terrell foring making the Matt Flynn reference Matt Flynn with the most lucrative regular season finale I think in the history of the NFL parlaying that into a big contract with Seattle and then uh never actually being the starter when Russell Wilson came along it's a great gig if you can get it honestly um I love it I would love to get paid to be a backup what the highest paid backup amazing yes let's go to another running back that I'm certainly taking the first round I know it's not the case for everybody there are some people out there who don't have Jonathan Taylor who is a person talking about as rb4 he is that for me and Fitz I know he's that for you as well Terrell where do you have Jonathan Taylor this year oh I think Jonathan Taylor could finish as one of the top three running backs especially with the deterrent that is now Anthony Richardson like that's really we know what Jonathan Taylor can do he's shown us the talent on the ground we seen Shane strikin offense be able to produce a really really he got Zach Moss another job like at that point you're you got a pretty good offense that he gives Zach Moss another job and people are actually sitting there talking themselves into Zach Moss I think Jonathan Taylor is going to come back into this offense playing with Anthony Richardson and what they're going to be able to do with both of those guys and what they can do on the ground I think it's going to be really really special so uh the only thing is the touchdowns like the touchdowns may be the concern and how much does Anthony Richardson vulture at the goal line but if he continues to get the touchdowns he already gets the usage on what he does on the ground he's going to be big for this offense Fitz obviously you know you've been talking about Jonathan Taylor all offseason not just because you are a Wisconsin Badger I mean for me personally like I we're going to be talking about um running back uh tiers in the next segment with Billy muo um so I don't want to dive too much and kind of spoil that conversation but I do think like he's not in tier one for me I think he's closer to tier one than the other guys in tier two like he is my very clear rb4 and I know again others might disagree but for me there is nobody outside of those big three that I'm taking ahead of him at the position yeah for sure and um you know the why is he in this bounceback category because he missed seven games last year and six games the year before but if we think back to that 2021 season uh where he ran for 1,800 yards had 2100 yards from scrimmage and had 20 touchdowns and now Terrell does make a good point about maybe the touchdown ceiling is a little capped because we know Anthony Richardson is going to run for his fair share of touchdowns if he stays healthy and I think some people see Anthony Richardson as sort of a deterrent to why they should be interested in Jonathan Taylor but uh to to me it's totally the opposite like I'm excited about Jonathan Taylor because of Anthony Richardson and um waren we've we've talked about this all the time since you know you're you're from that area but uh thinking back to that Robert Griffin the third rookie season when uh you know before injuries derailed his career um he was such a lethal rushing threat for Washington back then and that season he played with Alfred Morris who was a six thr pick who clocked a 4.67 in the 40-yard dash that year at the combine uh and Alfred Morris ran for 1600 yards and 13 touchdowns that year and and RG3 when they did the RPO the the Run pass options that opened things up for Alfred Morris incredibly and Jonathan Taylor is 10 times more talented than Alfred Morris was I mean Alfred Morris decent running back kind of a Hammond Egger uh Jonathan Taylor is a really special running back and man like I can't wait to see what this offense is going to look like but I think we're going to see like a a big spike in efficiency with Jonathan Taylor's numbers now that I'm you know well into my 30s I have to remember the youth so in case the RG3 deeps is too yeah Deep Well it pretty much the back nine of my 30s at this point um uh so just for those who maybe weren't around for the RG3 Alfred Morris you know experience a more modern version is Lamar and Gus Edwards like Gus Edwards is averaging five yards per carry in his career he is not that type of run and I love Gus he was awesome Baltimore and you know I really had a good time cheering him on for the last several years but look you have a guy with that kind of threat like Lamar or like RG3 was or like we are pretty certain Anthony Richardson will be this year it just makes it so much easier Terrell I'm really curious kind of your approach to running backs with mobile quarterbacks I've asked Fitz this a lot over the years and so like I said I'm curious what you think do you tend to side more along the lines of guys who um you know with the mobile running back they're going to lose out on those touchdowns to the to the rushian quarterb backs or do you tend to more side more on along the lines of you like that extra efficiency from those guys oh they're 100% you know you're going to lose out on those touchdowns and and it's the name of the territory like you can't have a Lamar Jackson in your offense and not think that you're going to miss some attempts you're going to miss some touchdowns but it's what you do with the work that you get and that's why I'm So Into players that are more explosive like very very explosive and they do really big things yards after contact all of that like Jonathan Taylor profiles is one of those backs that hey all right if your rushing attempts goes down are we still going to get good big explosive plays out of you because it's going to open up more we're going to have people that's going out there and they're going to crash down on the quarterback and it's going to create a lane for you and you got to be able to hit that lane hard and be able to explode so uh I like running backs even with the mobile quarterback I understand the reason for the downgrade but you just have to look at the talent of the running back if you get the really really talented running back they're going to make do what they get speaking of guys who have mobile quarterbacks that they're sharing a backfield with let's go to the next player here saquon Barkley obviously changing teams to the Philadelphia Eagles he's rb6 in ECR rb5 in ADP so Fitz again kind of along those lines similar conversation he's now in a back he with Jaylen Herz obviously with Barkley you also have the massive offensive line upgrade coming from the Giants is that kind of what played into him being on this list for you yeah and uh hopefully he stays healthier but the offensive line upgrade is is massive going from maybe one of the worst offensive lines in the league with the Giants to one of the best uh with the Eagles even despite the Jason Kelce retirement I I think this Eagles offensive line is surely top 10 if not top 10 not top five and where are you ranking sequin like I mentioned he's kind of rb6 and consensus and then being drafted as rb5 is that where you have him as well yeah I have him rb6 I I still don't like him as a first round value but I think early in the second makes sense okay I was going to ask about that because I think he's going to go in the second round of almost every draft so is he more on that first like kind of the first half of the second round for you not a back end of the second round type of guy yeah and I do see him uh get taken at the tail end of the first round uh quite a bit maybe in uh close to half of the drafts I've done so far but I do think he's better maybe in the first four or five picks of the second round Terrell where do you have saquan ranked this year yeah I think saquin is unfortunately and I hate to say it I think that he's right where he's at probably top end of the second round I wouldn't be mad if somebody take him at the back end in the first round because I think that unfortunately the talent's going to be there as a Giants fan he's really really good and he has the best offensive line in football yes they're going to sh up the center position and make sure that works but uh with Jurgens they've been you know everything has been so uh stationary on the offensive line and that's the complete opposite that you could say for the New York Giants and so I think that saquin is going to get the success that DeAndre Swift had and double it because I think that he's going to be more consistent I think he's going to have more of a a use in the passing game and they're going to try to make sure they get him his touches in the passing game because when he's in open space he makes some beautiful things happen so the only thing that I think will go down is the touchdowns but saquin has so much usage and so much talent where he can get it on the ground he can get it through the air and with the receptions where you're probably not even missing the touchdowns and the touchdowns probably make it a special week when it's already a good week Fitz one of the other kind of angles too being paired with a mobile quarterback it's you know not just the maybe added efficiency with the more open running Lanes it's not just the touchdowns it's also the pass catching because a lot of times mobile quarterbacks are very willing to when the pocket's breaking down rather than checking down and kind of racking up those receptions for the pass catching running backs which saquin can be in terms of his skill set they will just take off so are you worried about that in Philadelphia that from a half PPR or P full PPR perspective that saquan might take a hit I am a little worried about that um Jaylen is not really a checkdown guy so I think saquon's pass catching productivity is probably a little C captain and let's be honest we have not seen him be special as a pass catcher in like three or four years anyway that's maybe one of the things we were really excited about with him coming into the league that he could maybe be another Marshall Faulk who would give us just this uh phenomenal production both as a runner and as a pass catcher we haven't really seen it in the passing game the last few years but um as a runner I mean like there is a lot of promise for seon Barkley in 2024 with Jaylen Herz helping to open things up with his Mobility with that improved offense of line to a degree Terrell I kind of just feel like like I see some red flags with saquan and I'm viewing him as more of a second round player I'm just kind of preferring the receivers at the back end of the first round and right at the top of the second round having said that like am I just overthinking it is this like hey he was one of the most dynamic running back prospects to come into the NFL six years ago he's still only 27 which is older for a running back it's not like he's into his 30s yet he's going to a team that has been very successful that should have a really good offensive line like there should be touchdown opportunities of Plenty so even if a larger percentage of them are going to his quarterback the overall bucket of touchdowns there should just be more available in Philly than there were in New York like significantly more so am I just overthinking it like could he should he actually be considered the back end of the first round more so than I'm giving him credit for I mean the only concern that I have is injury that's it like I think that the talent is there I think the offense is there I think everything is predicated they paid him the money and is it not like they paid him a little bit amount of money they went and broke the market for him and so I think that this they're going to use them they they're probably going to uh check down a little bit more run design screens behind that big and mobile offensive line that's going to really really open things up for saquin like I think everything is there it's just is he going to play the games like that's the only concern I have and that's probably the only deterrent that has me away from Trading him because I have been scorned by early running backs going down early on in the season I mean I you name it I had that running back back back when he said that he wasn't playing in this year or they just came up through camp and got hurt like it doesn't matter so I've been scorned I've been hurt I but did but did you have Levon Bell the year that he chose to sit out oh brutal absolutely he won me my leag the year before so I mean it was it's so many different things but that's the really that's it if you tell me that I'm guaranteed to get saquin for the full duration of the Season I'd say a top five running back easy okay let's take a quick moment to give everybody a reminder about my playbook once your draft is done manage your fantasy football lineups and dominate your Leagues with my playbook from fantasy pros my playbook is a suite of powerful tools to help you make better decisions manage your lineups and win your leagues created by the fantasy pros the number one fantasy sports advice and tools provider in the world this app will let you import your team to get custom Fantasy Football news rankings and Analysis so sync your leagues today fantasypros.com myplaybook or download the fantasy footb myplaybook app all right we've got a couple more running backs here that Fitz provided to us with his list thank you again Fitz for actually following the prompts and giving us these names yeah yeah I'm glad I said something before you did so it's not as awkward beat me to it uh next running back up is H Josh Jacobs and Fitz I know this is one that Deb who will be joining us later on during Fantasy Fest he was on earlier he'll be back again later this is one that he disagre agrees with so why are you making the case for Jacobs as a bounceback so one thing Debro is uh hesitant on with Josh Jacobs is that his metrics last year some of his Advanced stats were pretty dismal he gained 15 or more yards and only 2.1% of his runs he averaged only 2.29 yards uh after contact per attempt which put him near the bottom of the rankings in that category had a 45.9% success rate on his runs after being at like 57.4% in 2022 and that's the thing I mean Jacobs was terrific in 2022 led the league in rushing 1653 yards um last year obviously wasn't healthy the entire season um but just the overall efficiency was down and maybe part of that was that the Raiders played most of the season with a day three rookie at quarterback so Jacobs was seeing a lot of heavy boxes um I I think those Advan stats are maybe a little more descriptive than predictive because like if you watch Josh Jacobs he is one of the toughest best inside runners in the league and now he goes to this offense that's looking really good with the improved quarterback play from Jordan love uh last year love really turned it on in the second half of the Season they've got all these good young wide receivers a couple good young tight ends and a pretty solid offensive line so um I I think we're going to see the efficiency back up this year but the one thing I would caution people about with uh with Josh Jacobs Matt LeFleur has never really been a one running back kind of guy he will not pound his running backs the way Shawn McVey does and um we've seen this with AJ Dylan who I think everyone would agree is a vastly inferior running back to Aaron Jones yet even with Aaron Jones healthy Dylan was getting 10 11 12 carries a game on average um and even going back to when lefl was the Titans offensive coordinator and had a 24y Old derck Henry uh Derrick Henry only got like 50 or 60 more carries That season than Deion Lewis did so um it's not going to be a 300 carry season for Josh Jacobs but I do think we're going to see the rushing efficiency creep back up after a down year in 2023 Terrell Josh Jacobs is rb12 in the expert consensus rankings he's rb12 in ADP is that about the right spot for him no I'm actually out on Josh Jacobs I I once he signed with the Packers it was a de sentence for him in my opinion and it's because just like Pat said Matt LEF like free Aaron Jones was a thing around the fantasy Community for a long time they continued to say it it was a big big thing and there was a reason for it 2019 with Matt lefl 17.8 touches per game 2020 17.7 2021 14.9 2022 16 2023 15.6 like that's not enough Josh Jacobs is coming away from a Raiders system that gave him the ball every chance they could 20.2 in 2019 20.4 18.1 23.1 in 2022 20.8 last season like he's consistently got the ball he's worn defenses down and that's where he's kind of done his work at but he had a really really good offensive line to run behind uh over there in Las Vegas not as good here with the Packers I think they're still trying to figure it out right now they're projected towards the bottom of the league and run block so I'm I'm concerned for Josh Jacobs I just think that the system he's coming from is a lot better and I don't know if he's going to mesh with it especially with the hype that it sounds like Marshal Lo is getting in practice let's get to the final running back here that you wanted to talk about Fitz it's javante Williams ranking in ECR is rb29 ADP RB 31 so this is a bit lower down than the other names we've been talking about I love this pick by you Fitz he has been one of my you know kind of coming on recently but he's been one of my favorite Targets in drafts and I really and we've talked about this on the show before I really like guys who are another year removed from that big injury he's young enough that you know it's you know you would think he could bounce back it just takes time when you have as devastating a knee injury as he had um it sounds and seems like through the early couple of weeks of preseason that he's going to you know have a really good hold on this Arby one spot I just I really like the idea of Javonte Williams this year and I think we could be in for not just like oh was a nice bounceback but like a major bounceback from javante yeah everyone was so smitten with javante when he first came into the league and and how powerfully he ran and uh just like the combination of burst and Tackle breaking ability but he was sharing work with Melvin Gordon and then we were excited it looked like javante was gonna get to be the guy and then tears his ACL comes back last year average 3.6 yards per carry he didn't really show us the same sort of powerful running style the sizzle that we saw from him in his rookie year uh but now he's more than a full year removed from that knee surgery and hopefully we'll see more of what we saw from him when he first broke into the league and what's really appealing to me worm is the pass catching potential with javante because we know in a Shawn Payton offense running backs are going to get their share of targets uh the Broncos led the league last year with 153 running back targets um javante had 47 receptions I think he could approach like 6065 this year um just in the preseason game against Green Bay yesterday he had a nice uh little dump off from Bo Knicks that he turned into a 15 yard gain and had a 14 yard touchdown catch called back because Bo Nicks had crept over the line of scrimmage so uh we saw it in just the handful of snaps he played in that preseason game like there is a a lot of pass catching upside here for javante and hopefully we see more out of him as a runner than we saw last year Terrell do you see a lot of upside here with javante also yeah this is actually a player that I've recently flipped on as early as on air I flipped on javante Williams and it's just because last year I I want to just really scrap last year from the different Broncos record books like I've never seen a coach and I've kind of gotten to the point of now I'm assuming Shawn Payton was tanking that offense last year he did not want Russell Wilson there he didn't care he did whatever it was to make him look bad and in a couple of preseason games he has now shown me that bodick is his guy and he's going to give him every single opportunity to succeed whether B Knicks does anything with it is going to be up to B Knicks but Shawn Payton is going to give him every single opportunity I think that does happen in the past game with short dump offs to javante Williams and just allow a player another year off of injury to make plays if he goes and they're able to nickel and dime this way down the field and they get into a lot of Red Zone chances that they didn't get last year he didn't have the opportunity for touchdowns because they weren't in the red zone now I think that they might actually be able to get to the Red Zone enough where he gets those opportunity for touchdowns even more especially when you have a rookie quarterback and you don't want to put him In Harm's Way and have him throw on the goal line we are up against it on time but I do want to squeeze in some audience questions um that I have not been doing a good job of incorporating into the segment so let's do some rapid fire here guys U from Andrew Kell should I keep Devon hen or Michael Pitman in my keeper League Fitz what do you think hn I'm an hn guy you know that I knew you were gonna say hn that was the G Terrell what do you think about that hn or Pitman um does did he say what round he didn't he just that was I'm gonna assume I'm I'm I'm gonna go with I think anan's a a low pick I'm gonna go with hn but if he if he was in a higher round Pitman anan's the guy who if you hit on that you win your league so I would say hn um another one here would you take amenra or JJ full PPR this season so Justin Jefferson or St Brown Terrell start with you in full PPR uh Justin Jefferson I still think that they're gonna they're just going to hammer him with Target it's close though yeah I'm really torn like with the QB stuff Fitz what do you think I have had Jefferson just ahead of amanra my rankings I've I've thought about flipping them on several I can't bring myself to do it I think Jefferson is QB proof and I don't necessarily think the McCarthy thing damages Jefferson's value at all this season I think you know darnold made DJ Moore go when they were together in Carolina DJ Moore still had a big season so I think Jefferson's GNA have a big season too all right sold I'll agree we'll go with Jefferson um House of cheese ask Garrett Wilson or Kiren Williams in a keeper League he does not designate rounds Fitz what do you think I mean for me it's Wilson pretty easily clear yeah yeah okay Terrell same thing yes oh I I've been waiting a year for this Garrett Wilson hype absolutely and I'm I'm like a touch nervous about Kiren just like the Blake Quorum of it all and he was hurt a bit last year I know they do really like him as a player but I'm I'm nervous enough that if you're going to offer me Garrett Wilson instead assuming these this round you know there's the keeper value doesn't come into play I will definitely take him and then the last one here just talking about the running backs is H should we be worried about CMC this season uh already has the hamstring injury of course so you know injuries are always going to be a concern for anybody really CMC does have some history with injuries even if it didn't really creep up as much last year thr what do you think are you worried about CMC this year enough to to drop him in rankings I think Christian mcaffrey is going to fall off a cliff the injuries the injuries are a lot man he's had a lot of carries in the past two seasons and it's already starting now it's starting small but if it happens and he misses two three four games that's not a lot of games Miss but it's still going to hurt in fantasy Fitz we're gonna talk a little bit about chrish mcaffrey in the next segment with Billy muia so I'll wait for your answer on the other side we're going to step away for just a minute here and come back thank you so much for joining us it's great to have you at the company and great chatting with you today and we'll be back with Billy muo to talk some running back rankings and tears don't go anywhere I'm going to say something that you need to hear Crossing off names with a pen or drafting based on Vibes that's not a winning strategy don't worry though I'm going to help you do the right things this year I'm going to tell you about this awesome tool at fantasy pros called the cheat sheet creator with the cheat sheet Creator you can build your own cheat sheet or pick and choose rankings from over 100 experts there's even a one-click option to use rankings from the most accurate experts if you want to find tun your CH yourself it could not be easier just drag and draw players where you want them or if you want to let your favorite experts do the work maybe Pat FIS Morris or me turn on Expert sync your Chichi will update whenever they update their rankings so you're never out of date the cheat sheet creators also pack with features to make sure you've got everything in one place on draft night want to Tech players to Target or avoid got it custom tags ad them sit up tear or drop down notes full send and once I've got my cheat sheet set I like to pull into our Mock Draft simulator and run some mocks against my League's ADP that way I can make adjustments and know I've got the perfect cheat sheet ready to go so this year just the draft night stress throw the pen and paper in the trash get prepared get ahead and get ready to dominate your league with the cheat Che Creator check it out at fantasypros.com Running Back Rankings and Tiers with Billy Muzio cheche back here on fantasy pros Fantasy Fest 2024 thank you everybody for tuning in with us we are Midway through hour three so we've still got we're about halfway through actually I think we're exactly halfway through if my math is right so I appreciate everybody sticking around in the first half of today's stream and everybody who plans to stick around for the whole show you are the real heroes here so we appreciate you tuning in uh we are bringing on a guest here Billy musio Billy I think we did a Fantasy Fest segment last year with the same group of the three of us am I am I remembering that correctly do you remember sit down talk football I think it was the first time you and I podcast together as well so you know now now we're season vets together let's let's rock and roll we're making it an annual thing which is definitely fun because I had a great time chatting with you last year uh Fitz let's Dive Right In we're talking running back rankings and tiers and I kind of paused the last segment on this because we were talking about Christian mcaffrey who of course is right at the top of these tiers and you know I'm not sure how much this might change with continued kind of in injury updates in either Direction with CMC as of right now tier one is CMC and rb1 bejan Robinson rb2 breall rv3 so Fitz what is your approach with Christian mcaffry right now if you had to draft tonight take him 101 and uh we'll see if Billy disagrees I mean based on the players behind Billy on that mural I'm guessing we might not have a lot of disagreement on this one but um yeah I mean I'm not too worried about the the calf strain um apparently he was running and cutting and practice just like even a week ago I think so um I'm not too worried about it and I don't believe in curses I he has had a lot of work lately but people used to be terrified after he missed substantial parts of two straight Seasons uh but now he's given us two pretty healthy Seasons so far um like he's been pretty resilient the last couple of years so I'm I'm not you know panicky over this little minor injury and training camp he's still at the top for you too Billy yeah he's at the top for me this is a kind of a no-brainer pick and I think there's a lot of varibles still you know we still have uh some uncertainty here here for the team there's a lot of potential um targets that could be distributed still but I I do really like Chris mcaffry this is a no-brainer pick for me as well I think you could make an argument for CD lamb to get mixed in there as well just to have some ownership but I I I do think that Christian mcaffrey is one of those guys that you just pull the trigger on if you have the 101 and you lock in yourself some major opportunity share and someone that's going to be in one of the best offenses of football with you know chance to score on any given play so it's it's a no-brainer for me Christian mcaffrey I think the the injury right now now they're just uh playing it safe this just not somebody they want to roll out the season injured on week one they're going to want to uh you know keep him fresh going into into the season and they're gonna just you know treat him very delicately with kid gloves all the way until until then I don't want to spend too much time on tier one but before we move off Billy I do want to ask your opinion I brought this up to Fitz in the last segment beon versus Bree a very kind of popular debate in fantasy circles this season do you have a preference yourself or I i' I've been saying for me it's it's not even 5149 it's 50 and a half 49 and a half that's how close it is for me do you have a side either way yeah I have a slight lean with Breece Hall I but this is a tier that's separated for me by less than than 1.5 fantasy points um you know I got Christian mcaffrey pretty far ahead of both these guys and then I have you know Derrik Henry and the next tier there slightly behind them um so it just breaks down to preference and I like the Bree Hall's involvement in the passing game a little bit more uh less less touch competition uh this is an offense that is also down weapons right now with with injuries and so I think that we're going to see um Bree Hall continue to see you know a major amount of opportunities inside of the passing game um and that's not going to be slowing down I me this is a player last year who saw 95 Targets number one in the league at the position um and I think that we're looking at a similar usage here in 2024 so um I like Hall slight Lan there you know Tyler aler is is a good back in in Atlanta and I don't think he's just going to disappear um despite the coaching changes and I think that he's going to remain uh in in involved in the offense and as much as we would like to see bejan Robinson get you know 60 to 70% of the workload I just don't think it's gonna happen quickly Fitz last question on this tier by what pick should all three of these guys be gone is it the top three is it the top four is it the top eight what pick at that point these guys should not be on the board anymore if you have to start three wide receivers every week I think these guys should be gone by about seven overall but if you have have to only have to start two wide receivers every week I think these guys should probably go one two three um and should be off the board no later uh by pick five these should guys all three should be gone looks like you agree Billy pets a sharp man that's exactly the number I was gonna say pick pick five to eight depending upon the format so love it pat awesome all right let's get it to tier two here just to quickly read the names it's Jonathan Taylor jir Gibbs saquon Barkley Kiren Williams Derrick Henry Travis etn I want to ask about jir Gibbs because Fitz we just talked about Jonathan Taylor and saquon Barkley in the last segment those guys are on either end of Gibbs in the rankings at rb5 so fit starting with you what is your approach with gives here are you getting him a lot in the early second round is he somebody that you're avoiding that area I know that you have been concerned about David Montgomery in the past yeah I'm not getting him at all and I'll be interested to hear what Billy says about this because uh Billy is such a great ranker like when I have my own lineup debates Billy's rankings are uh among the first I'll go to to try to break ties for me so um yeah I mean I I do have Gibbs ranked running back five but I'm a little concerned that his workload is not going to justify a late first round pick um so last year you know we got off to that slow start where David Montgomery was getting more work than the the Gibbs in investors wanted to see then Montgomery gets hurt and Gibbs goes ballistic but then Montgomery is back in week 10 and from that point on through the rest of the season including the playoffs jir Gibbs averaged 11.3 carries and 2.9 catches a game so a little over 14 touches a game um that's basically the same workload that Devon Anan had yet people are bulking at taking Anan at the round two round three turn but seem to have no problem with Gibbs at that round one round two turn and I just I I think there's maybe less of a gap between those two than is commonly perceived Billy what do you make of Gibbs I I'm in the same boat here uh with with Pat and and I think it's it's not it's more about the ADP than is the player I think that the the player is is fantastic and I think he's got every opportunity to succeed but he's got a lot of touch competition and he's playing it with David Montgomery and this is an offense that we saw feed the target distribution through Oman ra St Brown as well as lorta and and yes there's targets available for grab but I I just think that we're going to see more of a dual-headed running back approach it worked last year if it's not broke don't fix it and I think that they're going to continue to lean on both these backs we've also seen Gibbs already start to kind of get beat up at times we're already seen it now in the preseason um and it's not somebody they're going to you know continue to just you know give 200 plus touches to and I think that uh he's gonna make his money in the passing game um and I do think that though he's probably the third option at best on any given week maybe fourth at time from time and and at the cost at 80P currently I'm I'm choosing other options now if you're you know volume drafter and you're playing in multiple leagues you have to mix in some exposure but um if I'm in a home league and I got one or two or three drafts I'm I'm probably passing on them letting somebody else takeen and I'll gladly take a running back at a at a cheaper cost much later in the draft who has more upside possibly or just as much Billy I want to ask before we get out of this tier about Derk Henry um he's somebody that I feel like I'm just hyping up more and more every single show like as I sat down to do my rankings like I I'm just like I want to have him in my top five I just I just want to be above consensus on him he's currently rb8 I'm just expecting him to score like 15 touchdowns if he stays healthy which is not a guarantee he is a 30-year-old running back but I just I'm expecting a really big season from Derrick Henry so where what are you doing with Henry and drafts this year I have met RB before and I have oh yes thank you I love hearing that I have him actually closer to beon than people would probably like and I think there's a real argument to be made to take him ahead of bejon love to hear that this season so I understand the the trepidation I mean he's 30 years old but he's still performing I mean last year he averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 12 touchdowns now he's in an RPO you know run-friendly system where Gus Edwards averaged over five yards per carry throughout his career and I mean let's face it Derrick Henry's a far superior back than Gus Edwards and um this is this is I think some magic waiting to happen um Henry last year in in a a less of an offense had 16 runs over 15 yards what we call you know Breakaway run rate over at player profiler and um that he still averaged over seven defenders in the Box still manag to have you know almost 400 rushing yards second most in the league and you know like I said earlier 12 touchdowns which the sixth most in the league and I'm expecting this box to get lighter in this RPO system and I'm expecting Henry to um take it full take take full advantage of the defenses here with keeping teams honest and I honestly think that Derrick Henry should be an early round two pick if not late round one pick given given his new current scheme and his abilities so I'm all in on Derrick Henry this year I love that you agree with me that makes me feel so much better about my my stance on Henry I've shared this stat on the show before but for those who since it's kind of you know the big Fantasy Fest if you're listening for the first time this offseason to Fantasy first I want to share this that again Lamar Jackson last year inside the 20 had the fifth most fantasy points of any quarterback inside the 10 he had the fifth most fantasy points of any quarterback inside the five he had the 25th most fantasy points any quarterback when they get inside the five they are handing it off and there's nobody better to hand it off to than Derrick Henry again if he is healthy I think he's scoring 15 touchdowns not a guarantee you know it's a running back whatever if he's healthy there's no way he's he's under a do a dozen touchdowns like yeah I mean Gus Edward 13 touchdowns in this offense last season and I mean Henry is bigger better faster stronger this is a guy that's just they're just gonna hand it off every single time to him it's it's we are not gonna have to worry about somebody like you know Josh Allen or Jaylen Herz who's gonna you know sneak it in at the one or two yard line they take care of Lamar and they don't want him getting be up it's a perfect scenario because the threat of Lamar's speed is enough that you kind of hesitates the defense just enough to open up the hole but he's not actually going to keep the ball so yeah I super super love that um let's go to tier three and a player that you really love talking about Fitz and that's Devon aan we answered a quick keeper question about him in the last segment he's ranked RB 11 here right now and again I kind of alluded to this but like if you get it right with aan you're winning your league like that's what the upside is yeah so I've got him ranked uh rb7 right now I mean I've got him ranked ahead of Kiren Williams which is probably a minority opinion among rankers but I think what we saw is last year is a pretty good indication of what hn is going to be for the entirety of his career like not only does he have this gamebreaking speed like track speed he was on the track team at Texas A&M but I think the secret sauce with aan is his contact balance like he is so hard to like for smaller back he just bounces off of arm tackles and and sometimes you will see a def hit him squarely and it's almost like he is inside a pinball machine where he uh like almost Ricochet off in a different direction faster than he was going before he was hit like he is a really tough dude to bring down catches passes and I like we are just scratching the surface I think of what he could do in Mike McDaniel's offense I'm really excited about him Billy are you trying to be aggressive in how you rank and draft hn this year or are you wary of the size and the potential injury stuff and the fact that it has been kind of a small sample size of this Elite explosive Runner this is one of the hardest players to rank this year in 2024 just because talent-wise he has the ability to be the rb1 in fantasy but from a team standpoint and opportunity standpoint I have a little trepidation and I'm a little concerned about the usage and the size of holding up to uh a a a massive amount of increase but um you have to keep in mind they still have Raheem moard here they drafted Jaylen Wright um um and and that you know I don't think that they're going to hand anybody the ball over 200 plus times and I think that this is going to be distributed amongst all the backs and so I've kind of been throwing you know water on the fire here with Devon hen and I think that you know he's superb talent I mean this is a guy that averaged 7.8 yards per carry but in my opinion it's unsustainable here inside the NFL especially given his size and I think if you increase his workload statistically you have to you know bring that number down um and when you work out the Magic in the math um the math just doesn't equate to where he's being drafted in drafts unless he maintains that efficiency on an increased workload which I think is is going to be hard to do um I do expect him to see an increase uh usage in the passing game I think that he'll kind of take over that spot pretty easily um and and you know we're seeing you know definitely some opportunities there for him but um I do have a little hesitation with him as a full-time Runner and and not from like I said not from a uh a talent standpoint but more about opportunity and how much he's actually going to see the ball um you know we had Raheem moer in the career year last year and he's not going away anytime soon either and so I I just have a little bit of hesitation when I when I'm pulling the trigger on him every time but it's a guy that you have to own inside of drafts and and he's the guy that could absolutely beat you if you don't have some shares fits another name in this tier the last name in this tier is Kenneth Walker somebody who you know we love the talent of and there're you know some managers were kind of scared off with the Zack shbnet Edition in Seattle by all accounts like from what we saw last last year but especially so far from what we've heard that training camp it really does sound like Walker is like very much solidifying himself as the guy in this backfield I'm really excited about Walker this year I think rb6 is like a bit too low I I haven't totally sat down and said who who definitively needs to be behind him but it feels like he should be closer to rb1 territory given the talent given the potential usage and given the potential upgrade you know an offensive coordinator and what we just could see out of this offense in general this year what do you think about Walker yeah no running back has forced more Miss tack than Kenneth Walker since he came into the league two years ago um like that speaks volumes about his talent and I think maybe sometimes people forget that when he came into the league he was considered almost the equal of Bree Hall as a prospect he' had this great final season in Michigan State where he ran for 1600 yards scored 19 touchdowns maybe the only knock on him coming out of college that was that he hadn't shown much as a pass catcher but that was probably more about the Spartans offense than it about Walker himself um I I get the hesitation because of the presence of Zack shanet because shanet was a second round pick but in games they played together last year Walker averaged 15.7 touches a game shanet 7.4 touches a game so Seattle's kind of made its choice they do have a new play caller now and I I know maybe the balance could shift a little bit I've also heard people worry that Seattle might throw more with Ryan grub as the offensive coordinator although Seattle already had the fifth highest pass rate in the League last year so I don't know how much more they could throw than they did last year um I I just think this is a really talented guy whose best seasons are still ahead of him and this is a guy who still has averaged uh 80 yards from scrimmage game over his first two seasons with nine touchdowns in each of those Seasons so he's already given us some pretty good years and I I think there's still meat on the bone Billy I I wanted to ask you with Walker so he's ranked rb16 right now two of the names that you highlighted that you wanted to bring up are Joe Mixon at rb15 and Alvin chra who's at the top of tier four at RB 17 so kind of of these three guys who are backto backto back in the expert consensus rankings Joe Mixon Kenneth Walker Alvin chra how are you parsing between those three yeah I have a a pretty big tier break between Joe Mixon and these guys I got chimra at rb14 Joe Mixon rb9 and then I have um Kenneth Walker here at rb15 so I do have these two closer but mixing to me just in a in a much better situation you know gets a offensive line upgrade in my opinion you know the Texans were pretty plagued in by injury last year at at the the the line but I do think they have the potential to be elite if they're fully healthy this year I mean tunel is one of the the best you know top left tackles in the league and um you have you know Mason and Howard who are also reliable on the right side so uh this this is a team that you know we know is going to be a Powerhouse as well you know Jo Joe Mixon here is is a back that can do it all um he's a guy that's going to get catches he's a guy that's going to run and and uh you know there's a lot of a lot of targets to be distributed this offense this is actually the hardest offense to project in my opinion of football right now is the Houston Texans and how they're going to distribute all these touches but uh I do think that mixon's in a pretty safe spot to be uh in in a in a in rb1 conversation I mean last year 6.7 defenders in the Box um you know and and I think that he was inefficient last year and I think we're going to see this efficiencies increase here in 2024 um talking about Walker you know I think he's probably in line with where his ADP is going at right now and I agree with Pat I think that it's pretty clear that he's the lead back over Zack shanet and Zack shanet is the change of pace guy and I do think that the offensive coordinator positions Ryan greb I think the passing um mix I should say is going to help the Run game and it's gonna you know just open up the box a little bit more uh so the next name that you had kind of wanted to talk about uh Billy is RA Andre Stevenson and um I'll give you a break because I just asked you about three players in a row so Fitz before we get to Billy's opinion what do you think of R Andre Stevenson I I haven't been getting a lot of him lately I'm a little worried about that offensive line which could be one of the worst in the league and I'm worried that the Patriots aren't going to put a lot of points on the board this year I like the player I mean I I am always a sucker for the dancing Rhino types who uh the big guys who can bowl you over and have really quick feet so I love the type and I mean I have been overweight on years but this year I've been a little more cautious all right Billy now that you've had a chance to catch your breath what do you think about rre yeah I just like he a breaks down necessity I mean this is a guy that is going to be involved in the passing game going to be involved in the ground I think to Pat's point they are going to be bad I think that it's I think the line's gonna be bad and it's not going to help him on the ground but they're gonna have to use him in the passing game um and this is a this is a guy that can catch 50 plus balls I think and uh you know you look at the receiving court it's questionable at best you look at the tight you know core and and outside of Hunter Henry it gets shaky as well and so I I think that this is somebody that's going to be on the field a lot I mean we're probably talking about snapshare in the you know 80% range potentially 75% range um and when they get down in the Red Zone he's probably going to be the go-to guy and uh I think that uh just at a pure necessity in in like math I think he's gonna have to perform um based upon the volume we're going to see he may not be that efficient but this is this is kind of like a uh going back to last year looking at Rashad white we saw how inefficient he was but at a necessity they had to use him and I think we're looking at a similar usage here in 2024 for rander Stevenson to to Billy's Point Ezekiel Elliott as people may recall was PPR gold when he was uh forced to play a lot for the Patriots last year and maybe we see the same thing with your league today at fantasypros.com inel it provides a deep dive into your league mates drafting history showing their patterns Tendencies draft strategies and more want to know who always drafts rookies too early or reaches for Homer picks draft Intel will tell you best of all if you're a premium member you can even mock draft against your League's Intel make draft Intel your secret weapon and begin dominating your league today at fantasypros.com inel all right guys let's wrap up by skipping ahead to tier six there's a couple names here that you highlighted fits we're going to start with Jal mlin he's down at rb49 in ECR and we talked a bit about javante in the last segment it's really interesting backfield to examine because if Shawn pton does have Shawn pton does have a favorite in this backfield that player will be a value in fantasy drafts this summer like just based on where these guys are going if there is a kind of a clear back in here and even if it's not a clear back the way he might use juli McGloin we have dbro in the waiting room to come on next segment I'm sure he would love to talk about glofin too given his love for him um but I say all that to say that this is something that could end up being a pretty nice value especially with as cheaply as he's going yeah D bro is back there like a caged animal uh not being able to wax poetic about julan mlin like not being on this segment um so I'll I guess I'll have to pinch hit for Debo in that regard um if I don't get javante Williams in my drafts like I want to come out of it with Julia mcclaflin because all those running back targets and there going to be a ton of them you know 153 RB targets for the Broncos last year a long history of Shawn pton uh offenses peppering the running backs with targets when it was Drew Brees running the show in New Orleans um and Bo Knicks has been a screen and checkdown machine throughout his college career jalil's gonna get in on that and they like him a lot and Shawn pton has consistently talked mcclaflin up uh not only as a player but like as far as his work ethic and being a guy who's at the facility early and always looking get better and this guy is explosive like I think he's going to be the number two I think he's going to get in on this target Bonanza and he had 31 catches last year maybe he could get 50 50 plus this year Billy what are you doing with this backfield overall I'm nodding in agreeance with Pat right now this is th this is a guy that if given more opportunity he's he could potentially be inside the top 37 38 the position I have met RB 42 right now slightly ahead of consensus but um I me he was rb9 and fantasy points per opportunity the problem is he just didn't see a lot of opportunity and so I think we are going to see him get you know a crack at it more here in 2024 you know Pat's point you know they've been talking them up I mean first to practice last to leave putting in the effort you know and you mentioned here at the top of segment that if we can find a back that Shawn pton likes he's gonna pay off dividends and fantasy and right now this seems to be that the arrow is pointing to Jalia mlin um you know this is a guy that is is you know also electric on the ground he was you know RB uh and Breakaway run rate um he was rb6 and Juke rate you know true yards per carry rb4 at 5.1 um this is this is a guy I'm attacking pretty aggressively inside of draft rooms and his adp's been rising as of late um but it it was very nice when he was going you know outside the top 50 of the position um but he's one of my most owned backs especially when I'm building zero RB teams this just in from Debo uh Jalil is King is what he's saying so uh we know we know how he feels um yeah this whole tier I'm not going to read through every name because it's a very large tier but there's a lot of rookies that I really like here there's a lot of sleepers I really like here Ray Davis is in this tier Blake corm is in this tier Rico dowo obviously not a rookie but he's in this tier Jill mlin of course JK Dobbins I love it cost this year um there's just a lot of really interesting names kind of in this range so this is a range where I want to be drafting running backs um Fitz you did highlight korm as somebody that you wanted to touch on we talked a little bit about Kiren Williams earlier Corum obviously the other side of that coin in the Rams backfield I like korm quite a bit as well he's RB 41 both in rankings and ADP is he somebody you're trying to be aggressive with yes he is the lottery ticket you want in your pocket because if he does payoff the payoff could be enormous um we've seen Shawn pton running backs have these monstrous seasons and no one expected Kiren Williams to do what he did last year but kyen also missed time he is a a small guy I know they're listing him now at 22 pounds I I really doubt he's north of 200 PBS um they drafted Blake corm as early as they did for a reason I I don't think they want to give kir Williams 21 touches a game the way they did last year so km's may be going to have a fantasy relevant role independent of kirn's Health but if anything happen to Kiren I mean you're gonna see a bonanza similar to what we saw with Kiren last year with korm Billy is korm one of the guys that you're targeting in this range I mean if you're looking at like a true uh handcuff maybe it's more Tyler alir but does corm kind of fall into that category for you built if youve seen I mean he's just massive and I think that you know they're going to start using him early and often inside of this this rushing attack it's it was pretty clear that Kiron wasn't able to hold up to the the workload that that he was given last year he he started breaking down um and he was very you know efficient and and and and was able to to do a lot with those touches but I don't think they're going to give him that type of workload here again in 2024 so Blake korm is definitely a handcuff I'm I'm attacking in drafts let's jump into a couple of audience questions here before we wrap up and one of the questions that we did get was Jonathan Brooks Blake korm and Trey Benson how would you rank them in a dynasty win now mode Fitz who are you taking if you're win now in Dynasty with those three I have to go with Brooks first I mean Brooks is um if it all hits with Brooks like he is probably the most talented back in this class but I do think korm is the best Pure Runner in this class and uh the the way Benson has had a little bit of trouble getting Traction in Cardinals training camp I think I've now got uh corm ahead of Benson what do you think Billy yeah I agree I think Brooks is has the most upside especially um given the other running backs around him the injury has me a little concerned to start the season but this is the kind of guy that um you know could have a monster second half of the season and and really help you win down the playoffs so I I would I would agree with Pat here I'm going to take Brooks um and then I I agree I have uh I have Quorum ahead of of Benson as well it is close but I think that that Quorum get get a slight nod for me let's quickly uh answer two more audience questions here then we'll wrap up Jennifer Boland asks iuk or Evans this year and obviously there's a degree of uncertainty still with iuk what do you think Billy well you know you know that iuk is signing with the the Steelers and then he's going a sign with the Niners and then he's going sign with the Steelers and and it's never ending Saga um you know so I think that get regardless situation I think I take auk on both teams over Evans this year um you know I think that if he's in the ners we're going to see you know a lower Target distribution again with probably in that 120 target range which is you know not great for a wide receiver one but he's gonna be efficient with those targets where if he goes to Pittsburgh I think he sees an increase in targets but a decrease in efficiency so it's kind of a wash for me and I think I'd still rank him around the same Fitz auker Evans I've got Evans ranked higher you know 10,00 yard season wash rinse repeats and um like auk only had what 106 targets last year I I don't see a way for him you know barring some major injury to one of the other components of that offense for him to significantly bump that Target total and like he was maxed out on efficiency last year as far as yards per catch yards per Target yards per route run it's going to be hard for him to top that uh those numbers from last year so I I think Evans is a little little bit safer I'm actually going to skip this last question here and we're going to talk about that the next segment when we're talking about wide receivers anyway uh we are going to be back here in just a minute with DB to talk some wide receiver rankings and tiers Billy thank you so much for coming on like I said I hope we can make this an annual uh segment here with the three of us uh talking whatever it is that we decided to talk about but I appreciate you making the time uh during a busy season yeah thanks for having me on gentlemen always appreciate the invite and love talking football with you awesome we'll be back in just a second every everybody so don't go anywhere drafting requires more than just luck you need to be prepared for your draft but preparation has become aure these days it's timec consuming and most of it is so generic and it's not made for you well that's where draft wizard comes in draft wizard is built to understand you and your league and you'll get tools that shape themselves directly to your league settings and it works with nearly every popular platform including Yahoo sleeper ESPN nfl.com CBS and many more to use draft wizard first you'll sync your league to import your settings once you've synced your league you can make a custom cheat sheet built in seconds that Maps themselves directly to your league settings next run hyper realistic mock drafts based entirely on your league that feel like your real draft would finally when draft day comes the draft assistant will be there for you to track your draft as it goes on and to help you make the most of every pick so don't go to your draft unprepared or stressed sync your league get personalized advice practice like a pro and be ready for Draft Day this season use the ultimate cheat code and make draft prepped easy with draft wizard get started today at fantasypros.com draft Wizard or on the fantasy football draft Wizard Wide Receiver Rankings and Tiers app we are back uh hour two for me hour four for the whole show so once again thank you to everybody who's stuck around for this whole afternoon and who plans to stick around deep into the evening we of course are bringing back Debo Derek Brad Debo how did your first couple of segments go kids and grab food and everything so you know trying to like Sprint back in here so if I'm sweating uh it's because I've been running man running uh yeah that's it's not from your daily like going to the gym all I see all your tweets St not that I'm over the hill jym is done n yeah hey your your word's not mine uh we're gonna be talking try to beat you to the punch so yeah we're we're going to be talking some wide receiver rankings and teers of course we just did this with the running backs last segment with Billy so we are now bring on D to talk a little wide receiver action again as a reminder all of our 2024 consensus rankings and those tiers can be found at fantasypros.com rankings let's Jump Right In to the very top it as it currently stands we've got CI lamb Tyreek Hill and Jamar chase down in tier two is Justin Jefferson and Aman St Brown I bring those up because those are kind of the five names that you most often hear but the way our consensus tiers have it is there is a tier within those five and it's those top three so D bro starting with you are those the right three names to be at the top and is lamb Tyreek chase the right order um I have it Chase lamb and Tyreek um and I think that especially those top two guys it is so dependent upon these contract situations and like people keep asking question the Discord like okay I'm here who do I draft should I be worried about lamb and I'm like dude it's a fluid situation I mean right now we're just kind of like flying by the seat of our pants and saying okay hopefully we get some clarity on both of these top R receivers before you get to your draft day so I mean if you get the heebie jeebies I don't I don't hate anybody going Tyreek Hill over the top three or at least over Chase or over L but Chase is my wide receiver one right now Assuming he's playing and has the contract um so I'm not moving off of him I Debra I already kind of asked Fitz this from the running back perspective in the last segment but are these guys going before the beesons and the breeces of the world are they behind them for you are they kind of interspersed all within one big overall tier like how are you approaching it between not just parsing between these guys among the position but against those Elite running backs I I think a lot of it goes down to format how your draft goes and stuff but the other thing like I mean I've got them all kind of lumped together like Chase is my number one overall player but if you were to tell me like out of those top like four to five guys you wanted to go bejon or you wanted to go see himc or you wanted like I'm not going to sit here and push back about that because the the big takeaway here is they're all super elite players so it's really just kind of picky flavor Fitz is this the right tier one with just these three names and is this the right order within the tier so I do believe it's the right three I mean you could make a case for Jefferson and Alan ra belonging on this tier but if they are to be their own tier two I'm fine with that also I've got it Tyreek Chase lamb lamb only falls to the bottom because of the contract situation and because I'm starting to get a little nervous it anas Chase is a really nice option himself um I I like Tyreek Hill if if I were going to bet on who is going to lead all receivers in fantasy points I would bet on Tyreek um but I won't always follow my own rankings just because I love jayen Wad and Devon aan his options around that two three turn so um drafting Tyreek at the top kind of takes me out of the waddle and aan business and I don't like that I've got it as lamb Chase Tyreek for me so I we all have it as the same top three just maybe kind of uh you know parsing through different orders but again all these guys are Elite excellent options we don't need to spend too much time on them let's go into tier two and within tier two I do think there kind of should be two separate tiers as it currently stands it's Jefferson St Brown AJ Brown Garrett Wilson puka nakua I do think Jefferson and St Brown kind kind of stand ahead right uh but as of now they are kind of clumped together in this tier Fitz do you agree a that there should be kind of a separation there um there there's no case to be made for brown puka Wilson up with Jefferson to sa brown or is there I don't think there is and um I I might need Debo the staunched puka Advocate to try to talk me off the ledge with puka I'm getting a little bit nervous I'm not gonna lie um like I do have my doubts that Cooper Cup's gonna be able to stay healthy all year but if he does I feel like there's a nonzero chance that he out targets puka AA this year like we know puka is terrific what we saw last year was no fluke but I'm starting to wonder if he should be on this tier maybe uh at the top of the next tier Debra what do you think um I'm not pushing back off a puka I mean right now there's very few coaches that when they talk about injuries that that I trust but I do think that Shawn McVey is a straight shooter I think that he does not lie to the media now is he always the most forthcoming and stuff no but no coaches so we have to understand what quotes we get and things like that but I mean he said puka should be ready for week one and I haven't moved puka in my in my rankings and the thing about puka that like I I'm not moving him back I if taking the the the knee injury out of this like we want to invest in second-year wide receivers right like that's always been a thing that's what we talk about every single year and if they take another step forward why the heck do we not want to fully invest in a guy that we saw break every rookie record last year like why would not be somebody we wanted to be like okay well as a rookie he was awesome on a per game basis with cup on the field he was awesome and he outscored him why would that not happen yet again this year with cup another year older and I know right now everybody's everything's great and Grand with cup it's the same thing like when you invest in these aging wide receivers it's it's kind almost right now the the DeAndre Hopkins Coral area it's like oh he's a value he's awesome and stuff until oh crap he's an veteran wide receiver and he gets banged up which we've seen out a cup the last few seasons and then it's like oh it all comes crashing down and then PUK is a League winner and he's a top three wide receiver I want to ask quickly about Garrett Wilson before we move on to tier three um when I look at every wide receiver if I had to bet my life on one guy to be in the top five next year who is not currently in the top five it's either Garrett Wilson or it's somebody in the next tier that we're about to talk about like I just think if there's such a clear clear path to him taking a leap into the elite elite territory I get why AJ Brown is ranked ahead of him I think it's justifiable I think it's totally earned by AJ Brown and what he's done in his career I kind of come away from a lot of drafts just wishing that I had Garrett Wilson instead because I'm so confident that if everybody stays healthy in that offense he will make not just like a leap and be a value even going late in the first round which is weird to say but like could be one of those like top five picks next year Fitz what do you think about that between kind of brown and Garrett Wilson back you know head to-head that has been a rankings debate for me all off season and uh Wilson should get some sort of medal for having had a thousand yard season last year with the quarterbacking he endured with the Jets um and now like if we're getting something reasonably close to um not vintage Aaron Rodgers but the last iteration of Aaron Rodgers we saw with the Packers who maybe was you know 80 to 90% of peak Aaron roders but 80 to 90% of peak Aaron Rogers is still pretty good so if we get a full season of that for Garrett Wilson yeah he's going to put up some really big numbers this year I I I want to throw this out there real fast because I feel like where we're talking about these top tiers there's two guys at the buzz or well one guy that I think has been polarizing because of the injuries and stuff with JJ McCarthy I want to throw this out here boys I'm not fading Justin Jefferson like I still have him tier one I will take the falling value like I'm not worried about Jefferson at all I need to I need to make that very very clear to everybody watching this show right now because I've seen and I've heard and have gotten questions in the Discord about Jefferson falling to the back end of first round everybody's so worried I'm like does everybody not realize he was still on Pace for 2,000 receiving yards with Nick mullen's under Center and Nick Mullen is still on this roster so all the worries about Sam darnold if he sucks Nick Mullen is coming in we already know what that looks like like so I'm not worried about Jefferson and and the point about Garrett Wilson I have AJ Brown ranked above Garrett Wilson and I have him as a tier one wide receiver I think he's got wide receiver one overall upside this year because as good as AJ Brown has been and I'm not this is no shade at Devonte Smith and we're g talk about him later but AJ Brown has I mean what we see out of last year before that offense truly went sideways he went on a run where he was dominating and this year with Kell Moore coming in we have seen the Eagles go Pace up we have never ever ever ever seen the Eagles go Pace up and pass happy and throw a lot in the red zone so why everybody's worried about is it Barkley or is it jayen Herz that gets the the inside the tin touches and the touchdowns I think that we could be sleeping on a monster season from AJ Brown I do think it's a good point that like I I think he just gets under disgust on a lot of shows especially this offseason like you're either talking about the elite tier one guys which you have him there but he's not there in consensus or you're talking about the you know the fun young upand comers like puka and Garrett Wilson like he kind of gets overlooked not in terms of ranking but in terms of discussion so I I'm glad you brought him up and I think it's worth kind of highlighting that there's significant upside here too I I just I get so much fomo when I don't have Garrett Wilson that I I find myself drafting him over AJ Brown more but again I think it's Su super justifiable and and probably correct to have AJ Brown at least ranked higher um let's get into tier three and there's a couple of young names here that I want to talk about we'll start with Drake London and bro this has been your guy uh from from day one and that has not changed here um as we entered into the 2024 season obviously the quarterback upgrade is significant um you know he's currently ranked as a wide receiver one at the back end of those rankings going kind of in that early you know round two mid- round two range depending on the league um how excit I mean let me just clear the paint and say how excited are you for Drake London I love Drake London I'm gonna draft him in the second round in so many so many leagues and I just I don't I get where people are saying okay well we haven't seen it but if you look at his rookie season and we had more passing volume in that offense then we would have already seen it like just to Be Kind Rewind for people and remind them the talent of Drake London in his rookie season amongst all qualifying wide receivers at least 50 Targets this man ranked fourth in Target share 15th in yards per route run and seventh in first downs per route run so on a per route basis he was producing as a wide receiver one won a very strong wide receiver one the reason we didn't get the fantasy production to follow that type of skill level is because of the passing volume oh my lord well welcome to 2024 people we're getting the passing volume this year so Drake London to the Moon Fitz what are you doing with London I know there's other names in this tier that you want to talk about we'll get to them in a second but London specifically with where he's ranked right now and obviously you have to use a second round pick to get him are you comfortable with that or are you still a little bit hesitant yeah very comfortable with in the second I'm just not getting as much of him as I would like because I do have Marvin Harrison Jr and Chris alive ranked ahead of him but um yeah I mean I like him I came on to uh the Fantasy Fest over an hour ago uh Throwing Shade at Arthur Smith and I'll just continue that um you know London considering that the number two wide receiver in targets last year for the Falcons had 30 30 All Season uh you would have thought Drake London would have had this mammoth Target total I think he finished like 29th in Targets in the League last year and um you know that that is suboptimal play calling I would say and I I think London's gonna have a much better year no question about the talent I mean you just watch it and um like he is going to be really good this year yeah I well let let's actually go to olve Fitz because you kind of just mentioned him already because because they're going they're back toback in the rankings right now they're both young guys they both have had quarterback problems in the past we believe in the talent for both of them so what's separating the two of them for you and why are you interested in aive yeah I mean 87 catches for uh 1123 yards last year 12th in targets among wide receivers I know people aren't all that excited about Derek Carrs as quarterback and I get that but um you know car has floated some pretty good seasons for uh Raiders receivers in the past I mean like this was a guy who facilitated thousand yard seasons for uh Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree in the same year much earlier in his career so I'm I'm not too worried about that alve hasn't had more than five touchdowns in either of his first two seasons but considering that he had 32 touchdowns and 33 career games his last three years at Ohio State um I I think there's maybe some untapped TD upside here I just think he's a really good player and he could be in line for a big Target share uh just in the preseason game last night nine passing attempts for Derek Carr and four of them were targeted to Chris olve I think that's a sign of things to come Deb are you going back to the well with aave this year oh you better believe it man I love olav this year I mean like he's going to eat man like what's to stop him from getting a 30% Target share like legit like he's already shown to us that he can command targets at a higher level there's nobody like rased Shahed while I like him this is going to be a ridiculously concentrated passing attack and now she he's banged up Joan Johnson is banged up like there is nothing to stop Chris alve from seeing 10 to 12 to 14 targets every single week and I I know we kind of brought up Derek Carr in this discussion I I would like to also interject here for a second that Carr uh and I found this like when I was pulling up Jordan Love stats from last year weeks 12 through 18 how many people out there know that Derek Carr ranked third in passing touchdowns and amongst all guys like he was top 10 also in a just a completion rate so well I'm not over the moon with Carr I think we are sleeping on a little bit of his talent in the sense that he can support Chris lve especially considering that Supporting Cast to a monster season one other name in this tier that I want to talk about is Jaylen Wadd uh we I did a bunch of shows with you guys and Erikson over the last few weeks about different people's favorite picks in every round and dbra I think you were the only one who didn't have Jaylen waddle as your favorite third round pick not that dislike wad but everybody else was just go draft jayen wildad in the third round he's the most obvious smash pick there there's a high floor there's also a high ceiling so Debo why did you not pick him in the third round and how much do you hate jayen WD I don't hate jayen Wadd at all I know I really like jayen waddle it's just when we got to that point in the draft there's just other guys and Wadd is is among them like I like wadle a lot this year and he's again I think the the one thing that the point that we're not connected thing though I will say this on Wadd is if we are all collectively very very high on Wadd and we think that regression points to him having a better year than he did last year shouldn't we also be just a tad and I'm not I'm not saying a ton and I'm not saying he falls off the map if we think wad gets more touchdowns this year and he has a really really good season shouldn't buoy be just a touch lower on Tyreek kill than we are I mean I think it's re fits what do you think um no I mean because I think the targets are going to be pretty heavily concentrated with Hill and Wadd to the white outs like I'm I'm sort of fading any sort of uh impact for obj like yeah I mean WD has put together three straight thousand yard seasons and he's done two of them playing with Tyreek Hill who's been this Mammoth Target hog I mean wad got to a thousand yards last year playing with Tyreek and missing three games and he does it because he's a really good receiver he's averaged 10.7 yards per Target a really really good number over the last years while playing with Tyreek Hill so um I I know some people are a little bit hesitant to take the number two receiver in any team's offense and Waddles wide receiver 20 ADP reflects that I think he should be going much earlier I've got him wide receiver 13 I've got him wide receiver 15 sorry worm now you're good I want to quickly um touch on a couple other names in this tier um when I mentioned Garrett Wilson as kind of the guy that I was like if I had to bet on one person to be in the top five next year who isn't there now it's Wilson the other guy in that conversation for me is Marvin Harrison Jr the only thing he hasn't done is do it in the NFL level yet but if he does it for a year I like what is there to knock against him if he is if he has a season that I think we are all expecting him to have and he's ranked as a wide receiver one before playing a down in the NFL um then I just think it'll be impossible to keep him out of the top five next year I mean dbo is that like a reasonable assessment for you or you maybe a little bit more bearish on him than I am I'm not worried about Marvin Harrison Jr at all like I I honestly wouldn't I think he's in that long like or not long but that that tier of like the backend wide receiver ones where again I think it's just pick your flavor like if somebody were to tell me they wanted to draft Marvin Harrison Jr at the back end of round one I wouldn't push back on it at all man like he's got the freaking Talent if anything and I know Erikson was talking about him earlier about like the price and stuff like that if anything that should point to the fact that like we're getting better as drafters and people are understanding rookie wide receivers of this Talent area code can be freaking awesome from the jump so I don't have a problem drafting him at all Fitz you've gushed about Marvin Harrison Jr as much as anybody in the industry do you have anything else you want to add no I mean the Ohio State University has been a wide receiver Factory and Harrison might be the uh Crown Jewel to come out of Ohio State like no doubts about him I watch Brian heartline exactly the the uh Bucky's wide receivers coach has done a heck of a job with the guys he has turned out there and um I watch a lot of big 10 football and I have no doubts that Harrison's gonna be a star I want to bring up a question that we got from the audience and this is the one I alluded to last segment um the question is that ESPN has moved Deo Samuel up to 19 overall in PPR does that mean that they are expecting auk to be traded and and I less want to answer you know I don't know what ESPN knows or doesn't know but I more to the point I want you guys is that an appropriate ranking for Deo if auk is moved he is currently in tier three as wide receiver 15 but should we be much more aggressive on him if we think that it's very likely auk is moved Debra I'm not gonna be aggressive on him until auk is moved um I'm U Debo is a guy that has been confounding for years and years I'm always below consensus on him because it's like he's just an outlier man like and maybe at this is the point where like I should learn lessons of yester year but it's we don't have a ton of volume he produces outlandish numbers outlier numbers depending on like high lever situations he gets rushing attempts all this kind of stuff it's just it comes down to like when I'm in that range and I'm looking at Debo I'm just going other directions there's other wide receivers I would much rather place the bet on that I think have higher Target expectations and maybe that's just a hole in you know hole in my game that like I need to address as far as with Debo Samuel Fitz what do you think about Debo if auk is moved I think he goes to the top of round two and I am probably having an internal debate about whether to rank him ahead of PUK and Thea sorry de bro oh I mean if if auk were to to to leave I would move Deo Debo up but I think like for me it would start the conversation for me would start like a wide receiver 11 or wide receiver 12 like I just can't pass up the raw Target volume of Harrison and olve and even puka if you are a sports betting Enthusiast you'll want to download the free betting Pros app for IOS and Android use Sportsbook sync to automatically track your bets across all major Sportsbook in one spot easily track your bet performance by Sport and bet type including game picks props and parlays get personalized bet recommendations tailor to your interests create your own betting system for free and receive ongoing bets that match your criteria all season long this all sounds great but what's even better is that you can get a free trial of betting Pros premium right now if you've never had betting Pros premium just download the betting Pros sports betting app and activate your free trial of betting Pros premium on the upgrade screen start your journey to becoming a true betting Pro today all right guys we've got a couple of other receivers we want to hit on here um let's talk about Devonte Smith Fitz I know this is somebody that you highlighted he's ranked wide receiver 22 ADP wide receiver 23 we talked a bit about AJ Brown already are you excited for Devonte Smith as well yeah quietly has averaged 88 catches and 1131 yards over the last two years and another case of a guy getting overlooked because he is the number two receiver on his own team so um but if people are going to overlook him I'll happily take him because looking at that ADP of wide receiver 23 I've got him wide receiver 16 and and not surprisingly I've been coming away with Devonte Smith in a lot of drafts lately Deb Smith is back end of tier four like I said wide receiver 22 overall is that an appropriate range for him or do you think that's off it's a little bit too low I'm with Fitzy here I've got him a wide receiver 17 and when I'm projecting for that offense again like I wax poetic wax poetic about AJ Brown a little bit earlier I goes back to I think we're going to see the most passing volume for the Eagles passing attack that we've seen in since Jaylen Herz has been the starting quarterback I think we see that this year and so we need to be raising the floor for Devonte Smith this season kind of back toback with him in the rankings Malik neighbors who I think is ranked two low uh he's wide receiver 23 wide receiver 24 and ADP 23 is an ECR um I am just taking all of the Malik neighbors this year I'm not worried about like the little ankle thing he had in in practice um we talked about again in one of those episodes we did with kind of favorite picks by each round dver I think you had neighbors as your favorite round five pick and I said he's not getting to round five if I'm in that draft room because he I just like like with the target volume I expect him to get and with the talent level that I know he has it's just like very hard for me to imagine he's not a top 18 receiver by The End by the end of season assuming Health like I think Daniel Jones is not very good but he's he's good enough for an elite receiver like this I just don't get the case against him for being outside the top 20 yeah I mean I've got him inside my top 20 I've got him actually at wide receiver 18 um I did move dvon Smith over him I I have Nico and Jaylen waddle I I will say and I I I I'm I'm massively in on the talent I will say watching Daniel Jones play this preseason has been a sobering reality of just how bad he is so that makes me want to move him down just a a hair but I I I think wide receiver 18 is appropriate right now although I I will say this and own this that seeing Daniel Jones play football again really hurt my soul yesterday cuz like what did he have two picks and he probably should have had three it's it's it's bad they need to go out and sign Ryan tanah Hill please Giants sign Ryan tanah Hill fit Fitz we you know dbra and I both said neighbors top 18 it looks like you've got him top 15 in your rankings yeah I've got him wide receiver 15 and and Deo two years ago the Giants were 16th in offensive touchdowns so this can be a respectable offense with Daniel Jones at the controls running the Brian da offense um and In fairness two years ago uh Daniel Jones did not have a wide receiver the caliber of Malik neighbors as far as drafting him a lot of people are reluctant to buying a rookies because they have no NFL track record but with such an obviously gifted rookie as this um this is going to be your opportunity to buy him as cheaply as you possibly can like until the Twilight of Malik neighbor's career I would encourage you to seize that opportunity we don't have time to hit all the names that we had planned I do want to quickly mention because DB you guys talked about this earlier on t Koren like I just I'm all in I think his ranking I think he's completely Mis ranked this year as wide receiver 31 ADP wide receiver 30 you know I've said this before I don't think he should be up there with Garrett Wilson and Drake London but it feels to me like those guys are getting the bump from the quarterback upgrade and we're not giving the appropriate bump to Terry McClaren this is his lowest ADP since he was like a relatively unknown rookie coming in like a a day two pick and he is the best quarterback of his career I do not get it um I completely with you that he is he's under ranked right now I think he finishes closer to wide receiver one territory than wide receiver 3 that's one of my bold predictions this year um and then the other name Debro that I just wanted to hit on before we get out of here is Christian Watson wide receiver 38 both in ECR and ADP he's the type of guy who I mean it's very easy to paint the picture of this could be a League winner if everything goes right I don't disagree with any of those takes worm those are beautiful takes I love that why why can't why can't that your ability to make takes like that also cross over into pop culture and movies can we can we ever get that on the show please as a birthday present to me you couldn't even give me just like one episode off happy birthday worm happy birthday I should have like brought a cupcake and stuff I know no I wasn't with that no I appreciate you D bro uh Fitz very quickly any thoughts on Christian Watson um tall fast scores touchdowns in bunches had eight of them in a four- game stretch as a rookie four of them in a three- game stretch last year if he stays healthy if he's got those hamstrings taking care of and he did see a specialist in the offseason has adjusted his training routine um yeah exactly if he plays 16 games I think we're getting double digit touchdowns out of him straight from the mouth of our resident Packers Fan so hope everybody listens uh we all agree on Christian Watson all right we'll wrap up this segment there we're gonna say goodbye to Fitz here we're going to bring on Chris Raybon from Action Network we're gonna be talking about some overvalue draft picks to avoid that's coming up in the next segment but Fitz thanks for chatting with me for the last 90 minutes it was fun as it always is and uh I'm looking forward to doing more shows with you here coming up thanks guys happy birthday worm thank you all right we'll be back in just a second everybody don't go anywhere hey everyone Pat Fitz Morris of fantasy pros here to tell you about an indispensable tool for your fantasy draft the fantasy pros draft assistant draft assistant connects to your League's draft keeps track of everything that's going on and tells you the best player to pick when you're on the clock it's like having your favorite fantasy experts sitting next to you let's let's take a look at how it's going to help you out consensus rankings have you ever found yourself scrambling during your draft not sure about who to pick next we've all been there this year it doesn't have to be that way say hello to the draft assistant draft assistant doesn't just use a handful of rankings it Compares rankings from more than a 100 of the top fantasy experts you can also choose your favorite experts and see exactly who they would pick if they were drafting your team indraft strategy winning your draft is about staying one step ahead of everyone else draft assistant does that for you it keeps track of what positions you need and highlights your targets and sleepers so they're easy to see it also factors all of that into pick suggestions so you can relax and let draft assistant do all the work real time alerts draft assistant tells you when a tier is about to drop off and what other teams need it even goes through your League's old drafts and tips you off about what your friends might do next so you get to snipe your friends more often draft assistant works with Yahoo ESPN sleep and every other major league hosting sites so wherever you draft we've got you covered switch from Draft Day stress to Draft Day success with the fantasy pros draft assistant get it for your draft at fantasypros.com Overvalued Draft Picks to Avoid with Chris Raybon assistant we're back here for fantasyfest 2024 we are joined by Chris Raybon from Action Network Raybon we've been talking a lot of positive segments today bounceback players rankings and tiers and I apologize that we're bringing you on for more of the negative discussion overvalued draft picks to avoid but I appreciate you making the time oh I love the negative discussion this is Puff pie season in full effect everyone's writing up sleepers and all the beat Riders are all positive so I think it helps people to kind of hear the other side of in some of the downsides of these players because everyone has a range of outcomes and I think we tend to focus on sealing a little bit more and we should and there's a reason to do that in fantasy you're trying you know especially with your mid to late round picks but um I do think there are some guys where the the floor is not being priced in correctly dbo are you excited to also come in and bring the hammer down on some of these guys of course I mean you know I'd love to sit here and spread the hate and the shade just as much as I love to spread the love well let's start with one of your players here de bro uh Josh Jacobs with somebody that you've been bringing the hate on really all offseason long part of that is your love for Marshon lyd part of that is your hate for Josh Jacobs uh rb13 in ECR rb1 in ADP why are you avoiding Josh Jacobs I I just worry about Jacobs being a player that this high volume season ruined him we've seen that from running backs in previous seasons and I'm not going to rule it out with Jacobs and everybody wants to I know everybody's automatically going to think like well Marshon Lloyd's deal with the hamstring issue and AJ Dylan's not good okay does everybody not realize that Josh Jacobs has already been dealing with multiple injuries in Camp he's not right now doesn't mean that he wasn't earlier in Camp and they couldn't crop back up and it's not like Jacobs was an efficient player at all last year year like you were talking about a running back was outside the top 35 running backs and Miss tackles Force per attempt and yards under contact per attempt and he wasn't even this good last year and I get like he's going to a better offense that's great but if he can't stay healthy and he can't break tackles what are you betting on it's just touchdowns that's about it like so no I I can't I cannot invest in Josh Jacobs as an rb1 which right now I'm looking at consensus he is the in ECR he is the RB 12 no no way so rayon you have Marshon Lloyd listed as one of the names you're avoiding obviously at a much lower cost down at RB 49 is that because you are in on Josh Jacobs or are you kind of avoiding the Back Field entirely oh I think void and so everyone wants to kind of Target these rookies and a lot of it is based on Talent right because there's another guy I have that's uh I think is overdrafted based on Talent love Lloyd's talent but he he's got behind the eight- bow and Camp they resigned AJ Dylan and this reminds me a whole lot of a few years ago when they drafted AJ Dylan and everyone was excited and Jamal Williams was the rb2 on that team and everyone was like well you know Jamaal Williams is toast forget about him he's he doesn't bring anything to the table that Dylan can't and Dylan essentially red shirted that first year and the from what I'm hearing from laf FL just the way he's talking about Lloyd it kind of sounds like that's going to be the case again um so I just think there are still other other rookies maybe not quite as talented but in much better situations that you can take in that range such as uh Ray Davis such as brillan Allen uh you know guys who I think have a better shot at seeing volume because I still think this is a three-person backfield I don't think they resigned AJ Dylan just for him to you know be a healthy scratch on game day or get no carries because he's not like a special teams guy or anything so I think he's going to be active and I think he's going to get carries and I don't think you can put Lloyd in pass protection too much either so uh yeah I just think I just think there's better uh Alternatives dbo you're such a fan of Lloyd at least you were you know as a prospect during the draft process are you worried about kind of the Matt leflour of it all and he doesn't like to have kind of that one workhorse running back and there are malice if Fe you know your mileage may vary on what you expect out of AJ Dylan this year but he is still around um so do that give you some pause you know cause for concern with a guy like Lloyd it doesn't I mean we've seen laflor use multiple backs over multiple years and so I think that he has a role in this offense now health and availability they're concerns I I'm not going to shy away from that so Lloyd does have to get the health right and dealing with hamstring issues out the gate can be problematic I mean that that's fine like I totally understand the risk but I do think he's going to slip some in drafts and again Raybon talked about being a fan of the talent I think if we're you're drafting off a talent which I want to do I mean yeah Lloyd was my rb1 of this class I love his talent we want to invest in this offense so I still I'm still in on Lloyd but I do think that the injury concerns do need to be brought up here Raybon let's kind of stick with the rookies because another name on your list is Jonathan Brooks he's up at rb32 we'll get to some of the higher ranked guys soon but since we're talking about the rookies anyway I mean you know dbo just said Lloyd was his rb1 for most people rb1 in the class was Jonathan Brooks obviously you can kind of very easily paint a picture of the opportunity in Carolina once he is healthy is the injury effect the reason that you're avoiding him or is there something else yeah the injury effect is obviously why I'm avoiding him because I think the thing with talent and and what people don't get is that the missing all this time in Camp like that's big for the coaches right and if there was no clear alternative in Carolina like if Brooks was going into a back field with only Raheem Black Shear or something like that it would be completely different but trouba Huard played well last year Mario Sanders is making a lot of money a lot more money than he should but he's still there uh you know Black Shear probably makes the Rost as a as a you know Return Man third running back so there's no real incentive to rush this guy and it's not like the Panthers are the Green Bay Packers even or a team that's competing for anything in particular I mean this is the team expected to be one of the worst teams in the league I am bullish on them but you know it's not like they have any incentive to rush Brooks back so even when he comes back it's not like you can just pencil him in like let's say you have him missing the first four games and maybe another one or two just because that's kind of the nature of the position um you're you're looking at like 101 game projection but it's not like you're just penciling them in for starter carries for all of those other games like there's going to be a a easing in Period this is not a team that's expected to be in a ton of positive game scripts they have other options to play on passing Downs so I just feel like he's kind of pigeon hold into uh a certain role and you're just relying completely on Talent uh on a bad team with with multiple other options and no guarantees so I I think this just it just might be a guy who you know I think he underperformed his ADP this year and then you buy low heading into next year Debo you know when you think about Brooks obviously like where he's going it's not like you're spending a ton but it is like an rb3 territory is that somebody that you're taking in that range or you just looking elsewhere yeah I mean we talked about him earlier on the show and I I'm taking him I I and I and I totally I'm not dismissing any of the concerns that Raybon brought I just I look at Brooks that they're they're taking the conservative approach and holding him out right now I think that is the right approach instead of like easing like starting him too aggressively so I still look at where he goes and drafts and I'm willing to take take the swing because if you were to tell me he was RB 24 top like a top 24 guy then I would be more apprehensive about it but in the rb3 land we're taking swings on like committee back fields we're taking our shot shots and picking you know our our favorite flavor of running back that we believe at that point and to me I think that's an appropriate price for a player that if he does come back after that first four weeks and really you're you're drafting him at that point because at the stretch run could he have that 15 17 touch upside not to open the season but that's how much you're drafting him for you're not drafting him as a top 24 guy that's going to have to be inserted in your lineup immediately it's a flex guy or a flyer basically at the rb3 spot where could he be an rb2 down the stretch could he be a guy that is not leaving your starting lineup I think that's still firmly in place or possible for him so I'm still taking the swing rayon do you see uh him as somebody that you would maybe trade for partway through the season and just you're avoiding in drafts but might want to add like as he's getting healthier or you're just kind of avoiding in general I I could see it but it would have to I think it would probably be too obvious at that point and the person trading wouldn't want to trade him with me but the way I see it is I I feel like we tend to underestimate the fallibility of our own projection so like for example a guy like Nick chub I could get behind a lot more even though I'm below Market on him too I I generally think the market over rates guys that are entering the season HT are gonna miss games or suspended whatever not but I could get behind chub because we know who chub is and we know who they want chub to be and he's been that whereas Brooks it's like this guy could is a new coaching staff there's new everything like this guy could come in and let's say hub's playing well I mean Brooks could be a guy who's getting like eight carries a game and that's just what his role like we don't have a he could get 17 but why in that case it's like I might as well I I look at upside not just as talent but as how many games of startability can I get so it's like I see other guys in that range whether at running back or other positions that I can get 17 weeks of upside versus maybe maybe eight to 10 if I'm lucky so that's that's kind of how I'm looking at it with Brooks like again love the talent but it I just think he's he's he's entering a little bit of a muddy situation it's not not necessarily a great offense to be to be entering so there's there's different situations maybe he was on different teams a different team in a different spot in a different year uh I would be more bullish but Carolina is just not jumping out at me it's like oh man I got to invest in there uh hurt running back Debra another running back that you're avoiding is DeAndre Swift rb25 ADP a little bit higher than that RB 21 um one of the first names if not the first name to announce that he was signing in free agency this year so the Bears wanted him they went out and got him apparently um why are you avoiding him this year I can't draft him as an rb2 I I I think I think it's it's twofold one we saw what the Chicago Bears did with the running back rotation last year and it was a total freaking mess I'm not ruling that out as being like not maybe to that degree but also still a mess this year and I'm just off of DeAndre s of talent like you take the two monster games that he had at the beginning of the Season away and I don't usually like to do that but if you look I mean that is a large sample size we have have after these two just ridiculous games after that he was the rb25 in fantasy points per game in what we think like with the Eagles arguably a better offense and I'm not saying that Chicago was going to be a bad offense this year but rookie quarterback we're still making projections there and with DeAndre Swift he was outside the top 25 guys in M tackles Force per attempt yards after contact per attempt like I'm just not investing like if anything I think DeAndre Swift could be this year's milees Sanders I think per Talent like I think CLE Herbert is a better running back than DeAndre Swift rushing the ball rayon where are you at on Swift this year honestly I think he's ranked about right like when I I thought I was going to be fading him and then when I kind of go through the backs I still feel better about him than some of the other guys after him but I I do take that point the only thing I will say is it's it is a new uh regime again because now you have Shane Waldren coming in at offensive coordinator and you have uh so you know they went out and they felt the need to get Swift and it looks like at least to me I'm I could be wrong in this but reading between the tea leaves it seems like Kio Herbert is the one that's kind of like lost favor a little bit with this new regime because ran Johnson's been playing over him and you know Herbert I think was was the guy playing into that preseason second preseason game so I it's it was it's kind of a head scratcher but I I think Swift will be fine I don't think he's like oh you gotta run out and draft him but I'm I'm not like hard fading him either um I'm fine if I get him there but uh I'm usually not really drafting running back that at that point in the draft I'm usually I am usually waiting until I start getting down and seeing who Falls to me you know in that 30 to 35 37 range um so I'm kind of going like a hero running back strategy and and not really drafting too many of those guys um but but I don't hate if I get Swift but I'm not excited about it either so you mentioned kind of the hero RB strategy one name that some people are using for that strategy as Kiren Williams but Raybon that's somebody you're avoiding also for me it's just last year was the time to get Kiren Williams like this year the running backs I I feel good about are obviously mcaffrey Bree Hall ban Robinson and Jonathan Taylor saquon Barkley you could you could have make a great case for him he's getting a little older new situation guys on new teams tend to not produce as well but whatever the issue with kirn Williams is we Sean McVey is very predictable we know how to read between the te leaves with him he rested Kiron Williams all preseason with the rest of the starters he also rested Blake Corum a rookie who has never played an NFL snap in his life and yet this guy's resting already being being treated as a starter Kyon Williams through two years never played more than 12 games uh last year the most touches he had since high school he never had that many touches in college as he had last year I I just think that the Rams know how valuable he is and they want to kind of cut the workload a little and so um is he gon to be a complete bust and finish like outside the top 24 I don't think so but I just don't think you want to be paying a running back seven price for a guy who I think uh is more likely to have a floor year than a ceiling year like I don't I don't think he's likely to beat out uh a Taylor or a Bree or guys like that again this year I think it's more likely that he his workload comes down a little bit there's some regression and uh that he still uh is is still one of the I think least durable uh backs just because of his size and and whatnot so I just think rb7 is not where you want to be like there's I think there's a big drop off from even a guy like jir Gibbs um or saquin to a to a kir Williams i' rather have a guy like Travis eten who I'm more confident will will have a a a heavier workload and play more snaps for the dur for the entirety of the year I totally agree I find that Kiran Williams is one of the more interesting and somewhat difficult players for me to rank this year but there's always someone in the drafts I'm in who likes him more than me like I'm just getting very little because I don't think the cost is one that I want to pay and there's other names that I like in that area there's other running backs I'd prefer you know either earlier or a little later than him so I I'm just not getting a lot of kirene even though like when you had if you had him last year like when he was healthy was there a more fun player to have on your roster than Kiren Williams no but I I just think it's very different um you know going into this year and you know we are playing for 2024 not for 2023 and it's important to remember that uh Debro Kiren Williams are you you know for him where he's going or are you fading I'm a little bit below consensus so I will get exposure to him I don't have him at rb7 I got him at rb9 like I've got Mixon and depending on what his hamstring stuff like maybe I bump him behind Kiren uh but I got Derrick Henry over him too so I will get exposure to Kiron and like the way that I see that backfield this year is I think I think corm was brought in so we don't see the Kiren 22 25 touches per game I think korm was brought in to take some of that workload away like 8 to 10 touches per game predominantly in the early Downs probably when they're leading in positive game scripts if they get there but I think when the games are close I still think Kiron is the better passing down back I think he's still going to be the clear lead like probably 65 70% of the snaps so it really comes down to health for him but I think that's another reason why they brought him in so his touch count stay reasonable for his size and try to keep him healthy instead of saying okay here's 25 touches although we probably don't see you for another two or three weeks after this game there you go I think that's why they brought corm in though and even though K is not like he profiles as a guy who should catch a lot of passes he really didn't catch a lot of passes even with that heavy roll last year so that that's another thing like we're all playing in at least half PPR these days it's like if I'm gonna take our rb7 like a who doesn't catch passes like it better be Derek Henry who's gonna get like 200 like 300 carries if he stays healthy all 16 17 games so that's a good point Raybon especially because Stafford like he's YOLO man like it's not like he does he's never had like a super super high check down rate so it's like even though he's a pocket passer like if it's like well I could check it down or I could just go 30 yards down the field he's going 30 yards down the field absolutely you are spot on to that like we're basically all playing half PPR now I had somebody the other day just a friend of mine asked me for some draft advice and I asked the scoring setting and he was like oh it's standard there's no PPR and like not to knock people who play that way but I did a double take I was like I can't remember the last time somebody asked me a question for an actual standard League it's just becomes so prevalent to go the other way um another player rayon that you wanted to avoid who is kind of based on volum last year with his success was Rashad white um are you kind of projecting just less volume this year do you have problems with the player why are you avoiding white love this call I think it's just a a combination of all those things so number one I think that whole offense could take a step back Canalis uh his his his impact might be underrated I mean he Seattle Gino has a career year a couple years ago under his watch and then he goes to Tampa Bay all of a sudden Baker Mayfield has a career so now I think that offense takes a step back the interior of the line is the worst uh like is the worst part of the line for the bucks I mean it could be really bad they're starting a rookie at Center and their guards are pretty bad so um it's not like he's getting any help and then I think the player is is is average I think I didn't like the fact that down the stretch they did try to um you know alleviate some of his workload especially in the passing game you still have Edmonds Bucky Irving I think anytime another thing to kind of watch is Sim similar with Kiren right when you have a when you have a t and and I I get that why you were fing Jacobs earlier which makes sense anytime you have a talented rookie even if you're not high on that rookie and I am high on Irving but even if you're not like it is something to Monitor and kind of be aware of so like Rashad white you know last year it was him it was Chase Edmonds who we know what Chase Edmonds is and it was Tucker who didn't pan out really but this year you have Bucky Irving who I think is can add a dimension to that offense so I think the the role is a little bit in danger I don't think the players anything special I don't like the offensive line I think the offense is going to be lower scoring which cuts into the touchdown equity and it just seems like last year last year was the year to own Rashad white last year was the year to own Kiron Williams uh you know I know last year is still gonna correlate the most to this year but it's not it's not it's nowhere near 100% correlation and that's kind of our job is to find these guys that are going to regress and and and uh not perform as well and I think Rashad white is a prime candidate to be more of like a middling rb2 I think that we expected him to be last year um rather than this like highend rb2 borderline rb1 Debo you were nodding and and saying that you totally agreed with this call I love everything Raybon just said right now I love every bit of it I it Rashad white burned me last year because I have a hard time investing in guys like where it's just like okay if he gets all the volume then it's a volume play and then he outpaces everything like I have a hard time investing in guys that like I don't think are extremely talented players like if you look at every efficiency metric basically out there okay he was good in the passing game but from a tackle breaking perspective he was nothing special and if you also go and listen to Todd B's talk he's talked about when he's mentioned Bucky Irving and he's talked about the backfield he's also throwing a little bit of side shade at Rashad Wy being like well got a lot of big plays out of the Run game last year blah blah blah and yes to raybon's point that offensive line they added some parts of pieces it's still probably going to be a bottom five to 10 offensive line so if he can't break tackles on his own I don't think the offensive line this year is doing him a ton of favors I'm I'm absolutely with this like I've got Rashad white at rb16 and I I could make you a case where I could bump him in a little bit lower too quick reminder for everybody to join our fantasy pros Discord Community chat with other fans and get access to exclusive amas that wind up on our podcast feed you can join the fun with Joe Welsh and bogs Mondays at 2 Eastern Fitz and bogs Tuesdays at 5: Eastern and Welsh and Erikson Thursdays at 3 Eastern come get your questions answered and be on the show at fantasypros.com chat all right guys let's talk about a couple wide receivers that we're avoiding as well in Deb I want to start with Devonte Adams somebody you highlighted ADP is several spots higher than where we're ranking him uh why are you avoiding a guy who's been really good for a long time this really comes down to the old adage of don't hate the player hate the ADP I don't understand how we can rank him as a wide receiver one when nothing has been like what's better about this Raiders offense what what what what's better about it like quarterback play we don't think is going to be amazing Gardner mchu was not good last year Aiden oconnell still not great so whoever is the starting quarterback I know menu is getting the nod right now I don't really care I don't think either one of them are very good Devonte Adams is being drafted as a wide receiver one and he didn't even finish his that last year he was a wide 15 in fantasy points game and this is like he was top three in every volume metric you can find so it's like okay quarterback play didn't get any better volume's not going to be any better because you can't get any more volume than basically he got last year they probably run a little bit of a slower offense this year with Luke getsy out there so how are we ranking him as a wide receiver one that's what I don't get like you were to tell me he was a wide receiver to in ranks sure fine let's draft Devonte Adams why wide receiver one priz tag no can't see it no Raybon what are you doing with Devonte honestly I go back and forth but like so here's here's my thing at receiver everyone after like AJ Brown so like starting from like wide receiver eight to like wide receiver 24 25 like after you get to like P Higgins DJ Moore that area I have them separated by like a one point per game so I don't really care who I get in that range I'm not overpaying to get Devonte Adams so uh I'm not getting a ton of him I don't hate him at that price because he's I think these are all kind of floor guys and some of them are are gonna hit ceilings I don't like I don't think that he's in a great offense and so but at the same time it's like who what are my Alternatives it's like if it's is it it's Debo maybe if if auk goes it's Harrison Jr who's never played a snap it's olave who hates his quarterback it's Garrett Wilson who was on a team with a good defense it's Drake London who were kind of projecting for a lot more routes because and off the offense going to be all one-1 but you know like it they're all the same to me like I don't I'm not fading him per se but I I agree that like you shouldn't be uh reaching for Devonte Adams as like this like Bonafide wide receiver one because yeah 175 targets last year and he still couldn't finish as a as as one so it might it might just be about that time DB another receiver that you're avoiding Hollywood Brown now on the Chiefs wide receiver 41 ADP uh you know is you know ecr's wide receiver 42 so about that range for both of them um obviously got the injury concerns already here you know steming from the injury from that week one of the preseason um they needed receiver help compared to last year they added Xavier worthy obviously there's some question marks about rashy rice maybe now Hollywood Brown somewhat injured so it's not the easiest receiving room to kind of parse through when you're trying to to do ranks but Hollywood Brown I mean if he is healthy you can kind of paint the picture of oh the speed what a great fit with Mahomes the same way we're doing with Xavier worthy um I kind of get why you're avoiding him though can you touch on that I don't trust him to stay healthy and I was making this case even before he already got injured so raybon's talking about like you know kind of fading guys that are already injured before we start the season I mean Hollywood Brown like when is he stay like he's barely stayed healthy throughout his entire career he came into the NFL dealing with foot problems so like you you add all of that on top of a player that even if you look at just the profile his yards per route run has dropped in each of the last four seasons amongst 81 qualifying wide receivers last year he was 62nd in yards per route run and 48th in first downs per route run so it's like outside of it being oh the Kansas City chief effect and Patrick Mahomes and stuff like that what what in his profile says you some must draft him I I don't get that so I'm just going to keep avoiding him I'll draft worthy I'll take the shot on rasid rice or Kelce or whatever I I love all other parts and pieces of this offense not named Hollywood Brown Raybon are you avoiding Brown as well particularly given what you mentioned about the injuries earlier yeah he's it's like I now it's like him and worthy are pretty much even in my ranks so uh worthy still usually has a lower ADP not always but usually so I still rather have worthy I mean I agree I think I think you have to factor in and not just the durability but the but when when it makes sense with the body type too because it's like brown is a smaller Guy and um and also you know most of the places he's been he's kind of been in a position to be like a number one or number two target whereas here Kelsey rice worthy I mean you could conceivably ble number four in targets per route run on this team even if you are like an 85 90% snap player uh so that there I think there's more downside and I just I don't I just don't know about the upside with with rice uh looking like he's probably not going to miss a substantial amount of games as as first feared yeah I mean injuries will find you right so why intentionally start off with them um we're gonna get going soon I do want want to quickly wrap up with you guys both s suggested players to avoid on the Packers so I want to kind of have you each make the case for either side Dro you want to avoid Jaden Reed this year Raybon you want avoid Christian Watson I don't know if you heard at the end of the last segment we were kind of Watson so it's nice to have you come in and pour some cold water on that so let's start with why you're avoiding Watson listen the guys talented and so are about seven other skill players on the Green Bay Packers and Christian Watson is the one of those guys who has it's like it's like kyen Williams all over again it's like this guy he's been two years in the league and he hasn't know played a full season yet he got hurt the other day in Camp just like what going up for a pass and he like missed the preseason game or something like like everything this guy just can't stay healthy and now the last thing you wanted to see in the preseason was Dante Tavian Wicks catching a long touchdown because that again when there's uncertainty it's like Christian Watson is still being drafted as like okay right as like a fringe like okay he's not a a Bonafide like starting wide receiver but he's one of the first guys you're taking as like an upside guy um you know that that that probably sits on your bench to start the year and so I get that there's not a ton of risk but I just see a lot better guys at at cheaper adps I don't trust them to stay healthy I don't trust him to be even when he is healthy an 85 90% snap player like some of the other guys I can get in this range because you have a guy like Jaden Reed who I think I know where you're gonna go with this because you know his snap count is in [ __ ] but realistically Reed dobs Wicks and Watson are also good that you like they all may run on a like on average 65 to 75% of the routes and that is like that's just caps their upside and then that wouldn't be as much of a issue if you didn't also have two tight ends that I mean you I don't know if like what the health status of craft is but eventually you figur there would be two tight ends in the mix and you also got uh you know running backs that you want to get into in the route in Lloyd if he ever gets healthy so there's just only so many routes to go around um and touchdowns are the most fickle stat like touchdowns are like yeah he could have he started his career catch in a touchdown on you know over 10% of his catches and we've seen courland Sutton do this like two touchdowns 10 touchdowns you know Mike Evans like so I can't I can't just hitch my ride to touchdowns I think I I I rather just invest in a cheaper Romeo dobs uh who still I think probably the favorite to weed the the Packers in in routes so yeah that that's that's why I'm fing Watson just a lot of mouse to feed there DB we've got a dream team of Chris Welsh Andrew Erikson and Scott panowski waiting in the wings so very quickly Jaden Reed why are you avoiding him it comes down to routes I don't think he's going to be a full-time player uh Raybon talked about 12 and 21 personnel and you're looking at Jaden Reed last year and Raybon talked about it fading touchdowns you're telling me the guy can't even surpass 60% of the snaps and he scored the fifth most touchdowns amongst wide receivers last year it's it's an easy fade uh for wide receiver 43 and expected fantasy points per game with that I will pass the Baton over to Chris Welsh for the final hour of the show so we will step away for just a minute but don't go go anywhere cuz Welsh Erikson and panowski are up next talking some wide receivers with wide receiver one potential we'll be right back let's get real here for a minute you know some mock drafts while fun will not actually help you win your league you wait and you wait for the draft to start and someone drafts a defense or a kicker in round seven and you think to yourself well there's 15 minutes in my life I'm never going to get back no one has time for that so I'm going to show you how I prepare for my drafts meet the Draft simulator the Draft simulator was built by our talented team at fantasy pros to solve everything that's wrong with mock drafts and it's totally free it's the only tool that goes through your league history and matches how your league drafts so your mock drafts actually feel like the real thing it's going to help you get better at drafting the draft simuler goes over rankings from hundreds of experts including yours truly and it tells you who's the best pick it's also going to tell you which positions are drying up what other teams need and what they're likely to do next at the end of every mock you get your draft grade and the most detailed breakdown in fantasy don't waste your time with bad mock drafts my favorite feature pick analysis you can test out different strategies and see what works best work less and win more with fantasy pros Draft simulator for free test it out today at fantasypros.com WR3s with WR1 Potential with Scott Pianowski which wide receivers can we take to the Moon we're g to find out wide receiver 3es to wide receiver ones oh yes my friends the Fantasy Fest rolls on but not with Joe not with worm it's Welsh I am here for you guys and joined by the Undertaker and my extra point co-host it is Andrew Ericson and one of the most multi versatile rankers in the industry Scott panowski from fantasy Yahoo fantasy sports baseball football he does it all gentlemen I would both let you talk and grandio say wonderful things about me but if I waste any time the chat will yell at me so we're not going to do that we're going to get right to the content and Mr Scott panowski we are going to start with you we need to take wide receivers to the Moon you my friend are going to take us with your first wide receiver three or further beyond that can get us the there we're looking at it's a theme a Packers wide receiver Mr panowski so talk to us about Jaden Reed yeah right right in time with the Jaden Reed fade that was about like seven minutes ago or whatever it is I get it there's a lot of talent here there's there's a talented running back there's a bunch of talented receivers there's even tight ends we want to draft but I I trust Matt lefur I think Matt lefur is the best coach coordinator playay CL on the NFL who isn't treated as royalty I remember some people I think Bill Simmons was saying in October is Matt lefair gonna get fired and I want to like drive off the road start screaming of course that Matt lefair is not going to get fired and the previous segment they were talking about uh dbrown and Rayvon I forget who were saying the point but about touchdowns are fickle and I get it but touchdowns are also a function of design and Jaden Reed he won't have if you're gonna be a snap count guy he's maybe gonna scare you away but when he's on the field he gets snaps and he gets manufactured snaps and he gets plays that are designed to be Jaden Reed touchdowns not like he was the guy we landed on but this play is designed for Jaden Reed to beat a good matchup so when there's blood in the streets when there's a nebulous situation that provides the biggest room for profit Jaden Reed is currently the wide receiver 37 in Yahoo drafts so you know could could he be a flop could he be the wrong answer here I get it but I also think this's a plausible path for him to be a top 12 fantasy receiver and as everybody can see he's got an 0p wide receiver 36 his ECR is 37 a couple things I'm just going to throw out to you obviously you guys all know there's a lot of weapons there's a lot of mouths to feed but there also were just some like you know some inconsistencies five or more targets he received 12 times last year six of those games Jaden Reed failed to go over 50 yards and you have all the mouths that are going to be fed more now in the positive side his final four games played uh he had 30 targets and went over 50 yards three times while also scoring three three touchdowns so the back half of the Year got a little bit more consistent we know there's so many Here Andrew Ericson Jaden Reed Green Bay Packers theme if there wasn't a if the theme wasn't uh the Washington commanders players being values into this Fantasy Fest it's Green Bay wide receivers are the to of the town where are you at on Jaden Reed and does he actually have wide receiver one upside one of my number one rules I'm going to release in my perfect Fantasy Football draft strategy guide later this week is leave your draft with the Packers wide receiver because I want to buy into this offense we are throwing ourselves to draft as many Texans wide receivers as possible whatever the price we don't care it doesn't matter because the Texans are this great offense ascending aren't the Packers all those things too Jordan love did it in his first year as a starter he threw more touchdowns than than CJ stra did second to only Dak Prescott why can't Jordan love continue to be good we love all these pieces here so yes I get Reed is kind of a victim of circumstance because he's the number one on the Packers and you can get so much of these other guys later uh you can draft as many as you want why why are we against he's wide receiver 36 and 37 he's going behind every single Texans receiver why is tank Dell so much better than Jaden Reed and again you have to pay the price because it's the Texon the sexy new toy but Jaden re I think is fine at his ADP again it's not the best price because value based on the other Packers receivers but what if him and Watson had flopped would that make Jaden Reed that much better of a pick I I think that the value is fine here and even though he is the most expensive Packers receiver I I just want Packers wide receivers on my fantasy team so answer answer me this okay answer me this Jordan Reed I'm sorry uh J Jordan love Jordan love L of Jays yeah it's like like 9021 over here like the the Anaheim Angels lineup which like everybody has you Brandon Walsh Brandon Walsh all the same guy okay so Jordan love breaks out second half and now is is kind of a fantasy darling actually one of my favorite quarterback Target it's around quarterback nine quarterback 10 it's deep you can do well at any quarterback price point but he breaks out in the second half Jaden Reed scores seven touchdowns in the final eight games and I get we're smart we understand you know love's not g to keep this touchdown rate and you know Reed we want to penalize him because he scored touchdowns why why can't he be seven touchdowns in Eight Games why can't he rest of like I don't know five touchdowns in eight games you have scor 10 in a full season why should we say oh this is a play that worked a player that worked a person who was scoring touchdowns on regular let's just hold that against them and the ADP is so cheap and I'm going to cheat here this is total cheating I know we're looking for wide receiver 3es with wide receiver one upside but if you take Jaden Reed and all he is is just a startable wide receiver two for you or a high-end three you're gonna make a profit the market is confused here it shouldn't be you're going to get your ADP price or a little bit of profit on Jaden Reed with the possibility of him blowing up that's good enough for me I think the most interesting thing about this too Eric and what Erikson said was that Jaden Reed is cheaper than every single one of the Texans wide receivers which is mindblowing Jaden Reed's also really fascinated as a 49 year fan he kind of can play a Debo is role for this team and where they'll you know they'll do some ound stuff he can be a big playmaker I think you would feel more comfortable if there weren't four potential number one wide receivers and the only push back I might have is what I mentioned at the very beginning or right after Scott talked that you know he has these huge big massive upside weeks but then he has some down weeks the the in the thing I will say about Jaden R he might be the one const even though you could look at Romeo dos being that he might be the constant to get the targets where you have these varying big games that are moving around other players now Andrew Ericson you have a wide receiver three that can get to wide receiver one and this guy has the opposite issue there's nobody else there's no other wide receivers to deal with George Pickins wide receiver one for George Pickins I know you would love to have said Brandon auk if he was traded but he wasn't so let's talk about George Pickins wide receiver 30 uh 29 on the ECR and 27 as far as ADP goes well let me just check X Forks make sure that bruk has not been traded yet to the Steelers refreshed okay we're good George Pickins still can be a wide receiver one like that so for me Pickins is one of these breakout wide receivers entering year three that we're seeing so many of these guys be drafted in round two round three at that turn and why can't pick it what does he have not in his profile besides the fact that it's a run heavy offense that is holding him back we saw him flash wide receiver one potential twice last year during the beginning of the season for first five weeks when Deontay Johnson was sidelined with the injury who's averaging nearly 80 receiving yards per game and then we saw at the back half of the season when they benched Kenny picket and they went with Mason Rudolph again 24% Target share 45% aard share nearly 15 fantasy points per game that's backend fantasy wide receiver one numbers nearly 100 receiving yards per game he's shown that when he has confident quarterback play he can be a wide receiver one when he's getting the volume so what happened in the offseason they got rid of his main target competition and they threw everything they could to upgrade the quarterback position so to me he just looks like a such a smash pick where he goes because yes is there risk of course Arthur Smith is the offensive coordinator we've done this song and dance before it was awful in Atlanta but he was the head coach there now he's the offensive coordinator so with Mike tomman kind of still calling shots for personnel I think that it's going to work better in Smith's favor but besides that that's baked into his ADP he's wide receiver 30 so it's you have that risk but you have all that upside with Pickins in that round five range that I think his upside is similar to a lot of guys that go in round two so that's why I like George picking so much as a wide receiver three with wide receiver one potential because we're drafting a lot of w guys with wide receiver one potential as basically wide receiver ones yeah and you know an interesting thing too of wide receivers with a hundred or more targets you had uh Brandon iuk and Nico Collins that average more yards per Target number three was George Pickins and that's a pretty good company to be in but he also suffers a tiny bit from that J read thing I was talking about Pickin had four finishes inside the top 12 of wide receivers in half PPR while having 10 finishes outside the top 40 now obviously there's no Deontay Johnson in that by the way only one finish as a wide receiver two3 in that period of time so it was kind of like you know black or white it was there was no real gray area uh Mr panowski what do you think do you think George Pickins has the upside to get that classic top end Steeler Target wide receiver and be a number one I'm toring Here Andrew made a lot of good points and George Pickins you take him it's a bet on Talent it's a bet on Career Arc it's a bet on more targets with Johnson gone but I still have PTSD from Arthur Smith and I think the Steelers are set up to play really good defense to run the ball to win think of every Steelers Ravens game where it's like at the same 17 13 19 16 Rock fight it always is I think the Steelers are going to try to play 17 of those games and although it's nice that pickets gone for one thing nobody wanted to say Pickin and picket over and over again they wanted to upgrade the quarterback room what they got is whatever's left left of Russell Wilson and whatever is emerging from Justin field so I think we'll be a great fantasy player at some point this year but it won't be necessarily from his arm because he's a great Runner the Konami Code and all that so I I like the bet on talent I like the bet on Career Arc I don't trust the coordinator and all those percentages and Target shares and something it's gonna be he's gonna have the biggest piece of a very small it's one of those gas station little pies that you're getting we're not getting the Thanksgiving pie with the Steelers were getting the gas station piie so I view him a lot of times I talk about green light yellow light and red light players I would love to be green light on George Pickins he's just a yellow light for me still willing to pick him I'm afraid when he goes to one of my rivals but there's obviously a lot of things that make me a little bit nervous too I think the offense in general the quarterback play who's going to be quarterback uh the new you know scheming Arthur Smith what is that going to look like is he just going to be I mean there there's a decent likelihood he might just be the same receiver 71 uh catches a thousand yards just because they're not really throwing the ball uh Mr Scott panowski we are going to go to your second wide receiver three with wide receiver one upside and we're going to Tennessee and I got a stat for you after but talk to us about Calvin Ridley and why he can be a wide receiver one that we've known in the past everyone's mad this year it was mentioned earlier in the Fantasy Fest everybody is making him pay because he's got an ECR of 36 and an 80P of 32 but right now he is the number one for Tennessee how and why is he going to be a wide receiver one yeah he could be I I think his year in Jacksonville was better than we we thought it was just there was a big gap in the middle and it wasn't the best of Trevor lawence season so I think he's a good guy to buy on the way back up and again very talented quarterback pull you can do well at any price point with Hopkins being the older receiver here he's hurt the callahans are coming in to save the day it's a bad defense I don't think will Lis it's too early to say what he is but I think he's just going to go downfield and let it rip and and maybe kind of be the the good and the bad that we saw of jamus Winston a few years ago where it was fun for Fantasy it wasn't always fun if you were a fan of the Buccaneers I think this has a carnival potential and with Hopkins being older Hopkins being hurt I think really makes a lot of sense I also want to say this we both submitted three receivers beforehand the one guy cut was courland Sutton and I like courtand Sutton more and more every week as it goes by I know again touchdown rate was UN you know unsustainably high but he's probably the only show in town sha pyton finally has his quarterback I want you to draft courland Sutton maybe he be a wide receiver one I think he'll be a wide receiver two back to Ridley he was a first round pick last year wasn't that bad it just the way this season unfolded everybody just kind of turned on him the middle of the Season said okay Calvin Ridley doesn't want to play football anymore and then he actually had a pretty good final third of the year I'm seeing 140 145 targets here in a team that's Pro after years of Tennessee being the same team that just ran the ball into the ground they don't have that Personnel I'm not really sure I want either one of their running backs I think will Levis might be like the Sam how this year where he's just thrown the 45 times a week Erikson one thing I want to present to you with Calvin Ridley 27 wide receivers last year had a thousand yards receiving Calvin Ridley had the second worst catch catch percentage of all 27 of those wide receivers at 57.6% do you know who number one was with the worst is it was it pukan AA it is DeAndre Hopkins his new teammate with the worst 56.4% catch percentage so two of the worst catch percentage players together maybe it's the quarterback maybe it's the play that's the worry but Calvin Ridley we've seen the big big play especially when they're going to go want to go deep and the question even when Hopkins is back is Calvin going to be maybe solely that deep guy that this offense would run through which really would let him play this but what say you Calvin Ridley do you think there's wide receiver upside Erikson I do you know I talked about Calvin Ridley as one of my favorite bounceback wide receivers earlier in the Fantasy Fest so I am echoing everything Scott is talking about when it comes to Calvin Ridley the reason he is viewed as a bust from last year is because we got way out of control drafting a guy hadn't played football in like two years and this is what happens this is the post type type of sleeper play again it sounds weird to call Calvin really a postype sleeper but that's exactly what he is everybody was throwing themselves to draft Calvin rley when the guy hadn't played football in such a long time and I mean when you look up his final stat line wasn't even really that bad but he ran horribly when it came to the drops especially seemed like all of his drops were in the end zone so I think Calvin Ridley in this offense that we're going to see throw the ball way more than any other Titans fans buckle up like the aerial attack is coming to Nashville so please enjoy all right well uh I want to remind everybody that we might answer some questions at the end so if you got any questions for these two guys make sure you do it but first we want to tell you about the fantasy pros championship at ffpc oh yes my friends it is time and your opportunity to win $1 million first place prize it's the world's largest online season long tournament fantasy pros Championship drafts fast and slow drafts are live right now and guess what you could even go up against some of your fantasy pros people like Erikson and myself as a matter of fact I think it's August 28th we've got back-to-back drafts you could be playing against us and tons more $350 entry freeze no joke but it's a $1 million prize but you go to fantasypros.com FPC and use promo code fantasy pros when you sign up you get $25 off of your first entry you can use that to go up against Erikson or myself do it today the fantasy pros online Championship over at ffpc promo code fantasy pros do it today my friends all right let's get in to some more of these bad boys let's talk about some more topend wide receivers and ericon we're going to go back to you and we're going to go with a wide receiver that has had just some controversy and I don't and I believe if that controversy wasn't there we would be talking probably easily about like wide receiver two all season long but I think people are worried about some of that suspension in general and we're talking about Rashi rice he has got an ECR of 32 and an ADP of 35 that baby is rising as people are just kind of coming to terms with hey you know what we might not have anything come down but what say you Ericson obviously I think the the talent is there but you have to factor in in some capacity if there is a suspension and play are you not no I'm not I have rice as my wide receiver 22 so I am I'm drafting him as a wide receiver two that I think could be a wide receiver one because again with rice the reason his ADP is so low is because a lot of these rankings especially on some of these home sites where you're drafting Yahoo ESPN CBS a lot of those haven't really been updated reflected that his court date is December 9th that is way long into the season and what the Chiefs can do is oh we're just going to it and then it'll be push off to 2025 Alvin CRA didn't get suspended till the entire season after he committed one of his penalties but that end up making him get suspended for three games so the Chiefs have no information they've heard nothing every time they ask Andy Reid about rashy rice they're like I don't know I haven't heard anything and what's rice doing just continuing to ball out and Maris Brown is no longer going to be part of the game plan because he's been hurt so he's missing all of training camp he's a new piece at the offense anyway so when you look at the way this offense is now set up who's going to be eating up all those underneath targets it's Rashi rice even if in that same role as he was last year again the a dots not sexy but oh he's going to catch six balls every single week and beond the highest scoring offense in the NFL that throws the ball more than any other offense sign me up wide receiver 35 8p it's it's like not even about just rice and the things I could sell about him being in the offense and how he broke out as a rookie his price is just wrong and you should draft him you should draft him round ahead of ADP in every single one of your drafts like I said a couple weeks ago rashy R is the easiest click in fantasy football and it aged well because Mar Brown ended up getting hurt so it worked out in my favor and Rashi rice didn't get suspended during that time but I still right now think at your home leagues we fine where Rashi Rice's ADP because I guarantee it's way too low last year he ended the year with seven straight games of five or more receptions and in that period of time he finished as a wide receiver one three times and only one of those did he not at least become a wide receiver three so some consistency in there and you've got brown out of there Scott what do you think about Rashid rice in this low ECR ADP yeah we're in major agreement Here Andrew and I the Chiefs this was one of the worst Andy Reed offenses in a year that somehow they won the Super Bowl but who got in the circle of trust in the second half of the year it was Rashid rice and Isaiah beo who's another guy who I keep drafting I got rice in the fourth round at the fantasy football Expo last weekend no he's not sexy he's had like a Portman's Aman Ross brown right you don't think it's St Brown threatening the defenses with intermediate and deep routes he's just he lives to have that you know nine for 102 statline and rice is going to be a lot of that and the maybe the most important thing that that Andrew mentions they can kick the can down the road with the suspension I don't I'm not sure that Rice will get suspended at all and even if he does it almost certainly sounds like a 2025 thing so you're getting a discount for that he's been mispriced all summer and again at at time some of that ADP is baked in because we didn't know I think things are a lot more clear now that there's nothing to worry about there's been an injury with brown I know Brown is sexy because he runs steep routes and worthy of course is an exciting process Prospect who comes in but the Chiefs may take their time with worthy they took their time with rice last year when he was screaming for a bigger role I'm going to emphatically say it with with Andrew Ericson I want you to Target Rashid rice because the market has not fixed his price all right you guys both have one left and I am gonna just let each of you hit yours and then we'll see if we can get just a couple questions in so let's go over to you Mr Scott panowski your final one here is Jackson Smith and jiga who has got quite a lower uh ADP and ECR ECR 38 ADP 45 but that wide receiver one upside is there you know and interestingly enough he didn't have a ton of like big Target games he's only targeted seven or more times four times last year but lockit had that 10 times so I think the key here no pun intended on the lockit is that Jackson Smith and jiga and Tyler Lockett have to kind of switch those roles and I think you can you know just unleash for Jackson Smith and jiga but talk to us about jsn yeah at some point that's going to happen to lock it into a Agee 32 season it's the second season for GSN I can't believe every Scout was wrong on this guy right I think a year ago Brian Hartline I want to say the wide receiver coach at OSU thought jsn might have been the best of that group of the Chris LA and and Garrett Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr class and that sounds silly right now but the point is that jsn can play battled injuries his first year we've been spoiled by rookie receivers being plug inpl in recent seasons for years that wasn't the case Ryan grub comes in did wonderful things with the Washington offense he stays in the general area Seattle's offensive line collapse in the first first week of last season I'm willing to give almost this entire offens of Mulligan jsn is a good football player he had a bad run out last year the line got broken right away he they didn't throw him in the deep end of the pool there's so much room for growth here I can't believe that everybody who loved this guy a year ago was all of a sudden wrong he's kind of like the Kyle pits of wide receivers oh that's a that's a good comp I like that all right uh Andrew you're gonna finish us out here with your final wide receiver with that wide receiver upside and I wouldn't say you call talk smack about him a little bit earlier but you used him as an example of why someone else can be great how is tank Dell going to be a number one wide receiver when all those other great wide receivers are out there ECR 31 ADP of 29 you see Welsh it comes down to one simple principle because I don't know who's going to score the most touchdowns I don't know who's G to get the most targets don't know who's going to play in 12 Personnel y y y I do know this who loves tank Dell CJ strad who's the quarterback of the Houston Texans CJ St that's where I'm pushing my chips in because when we saw tank D immediately hit the field last year as a rookie after a uber productive career at the college level despite being undersized all he did was ball out from the Geto with CJ Stout as his quarterback again the last four games he played healthy alongside Nico Collins tank Dell outgained niiko Collins in the eight games they played together their production was identical I get nicoo Collins has that alpha build he got paid and yeah I understand why he's the first guy going off the board but it's still a value game here and what if come after week one tank Dale leads the team in targets but what happens then oh well tank is going to be valued higher than nikic Collins even though they are playing the Colts and niic Collins is probably going to get at least 150 yards I got the clown costume ready to go for week two on the trade show cannot wait for it but for right now I have to draft the Texans receiver I can't leave a draft where man this offense could be so good for the passing game and if I'm gonna fade Nico that means I have to be aggressive at least targeting guys like Stefan Diggs and then tank Dell because he's the cheapest so for me again it's hard to parse through the targets and the touchdowns but for me it's like tank Dell broken out as a rookie his quarterback absolutely loves him and if they hadn't added these other weapons we'd have less question marks about him in this offense so for me TK Dell that's why I like him at his value as a wide receiver three that I think as wide receiver one upside attached to CJ strad strad just just love him he actually pitched for them to draft Dell I mean think about that I mean CJ strad I I will listen to just talk all day long about football he is just like the most fun he's just just pitching for everybody by the way we only need the nose Erikson we don't need like the whole thing like if you want to do makeup and stuff I mean it let's it depends on how many yards Nico Collins gets against the cold secondary that's I think I'm on I think I'm on three shows with you this year so I'll hold you to it buddy don't worry about it uh just a couple quick questions before we get out of here uh we have got Brandon says do you trust Deontay Johnson with Bryce young or Calvin Ridley with Levis to me it's Deontay and it isn't close uh puski let's go to you when we're talking about Calvin what do you say there Deontay with Bryce or Calvin with Will Lis yeah I think your hit rate's going to be higher with Deontay Johnson the reason why is I'm just willing to follow Dave Canalis into a burning building he his fingerprints were all over the Gino Smith Renaissance two years ago and then he turned Baker Mayfield from a punch line into a pretty good quarterback last year I'm curious to see what happens to Tampa Bay without Canalis obviously Bryce young is undersized for the position he can't see some of those over the-mill throws but I I just at this point Dave Canalis and 11 random dudes I think he can make the into a credible offense and Deontay Johnson is obviously a heck of a route Runner I like that uh Erikson we got a question here in a superflex dynasty what do you think about Pacho as an rb1 I like it I mean we don't know who their rb2 is in this offense could be Edwards Lair generic Prince a fullback that they just signed from rugby we don't know they have plenty of options but Isaiah pko seems like the guy and if he's playing this high-powered offense again the only thing question marks are well does he see a lot of Red Zone usage like that's really the biggest question mark that could be you know his ailles heel per se but when it comes to rushing when it comes to him being efficient he's gonna be both of those uh good one this is this is the best question of all these are those great keeper questions would you rather have beon at one two or Michael Pitman at the 92 is there more value in Pitman to justify not taking you know some I mean I think Deo has uh beon at the number one spot Scott what do you think about that massive value with Pitman or just go with the best guy man I I'm willing to throw value into the shredder if we're talking about an Elite Talent but you're paying sticker on bejan I I have to go Pitman I'd be afraid it would blow up in my face I would try to trade IID try to draft Robinson the first round if I could I don't know where your draft capital is here's the thing here's the takeway I want you to take you're asking the right question it's okay your Keepers don't always have to be oh I'm making 10 cents here and 15 cents here and 20 cents here sometimes just something to be said for paying a lot for a quote unquote sure thing look at that Atlanta schedule Falcons are going to win 11 games I'm not even sure they're that great but they have a unbelievable that wor sharp schedule grid I mean the Falcons are on their own island with that they're on the they're on the moon everybody else is on Earth so I want you to get bejon Robinson shares here I would take Pitman but it would make me a little bit nervous Ericson are you gonna nickel and dime if you will in this scenario no I'm think I'm going with bejon because I think that you can find Value elsewhere but you're not gonna find bejon so that's the way I would look at it I have no problem with that yeah I I hope and but in the previous question asked about Peko I want you to be overweight on Pacho this year it's harder to be overweight on bejon because you you walk in your draft drafting nines you can't get Robinson but I hope everybody out there is playing in multiple leagues you got to have some Robinson your portfolio I look everybody loves the guy but he's like if you're in a salary cap draft you're you're spending extra money on bejon Robinson look at look at this dude over here panowski is the best literally has to answer has to make sure you guys know he's one of my favorites did baseball with him this year Scott I am glad to have done this show with you this year and going to be doing some inseason shows here on fantasy pros with Mr Scott panowski so make sure you follow follow him at Scott panowski don't go anywhere the final segment is coming up we have got fantasy football sleepers Erikson and the great Michael F Florio in the house don't go anywhere we'll be right back for the final segment right here on fantasy pros Fantasy Fest do you ever wish you could wave a magic wand and know how your league mates are going to draft how they'll use their picks how early they draft quarterbacks how much do they overdraft rookies well I wouldn't be bringing this up if I didn't have a tool just for that meet draft Intel with draft Intel you'll know how your league mates draft better than they do draft Intel will analyze your League's draft history to detect patterns in your League's drafts then it'll show you how your league makes make decisions with their picks get team specific and league-wide patterns to understand what direction your draft might go at a higher level with that knowledge you'll get the complete story of your League's drafting history and you can prepare accordingly the best part you can bring those patterns in into Draft simulator and practice against them that's right the most realistic mock drafting tool available will now be tailored specifically to the people in your league the Bots you draft against will combine our pick algorithm with your League's Intel to create mock drafts that feel like real drafts this means every mock draft will provide you with realistic tailormade scenarios to help make your draft prep more effective than ever before take my leagues for example my uncle loves to go heavy on quarterback draft into tell can tell me that and highlight during the mock draft process hey if he's picking between you on the end he's probably going to take a quarterback here so if there's one guy you like left you better be sure to take him draft smarter and stay ahead of your league with draft Intel don't wait until draft day get an edge over your league mates today with draft Intel at fantasypros.com Favorite Fantasy Sleepers with Michael Florio inel fantasy football sleepers you say yes please absolutely and boy we got a banger to to end this bad boy out it's Michael Florio in the house Michael F Florio from NFL Network of course the Undertaker is back to finish this bad boy with me thank you guys so much for hanging this entire broadcast four and a half hours we are ending this super super strong I'm excited to be chatting with you guys and of course I don't want to waste any time but I do want to ask one quick question before we get to these awesome names and Florio let's start with you here what is a fantasy football sleeper in this Grand landscape where there are beautiful shows like yours on NFL Network there's the fantasy pros Fantasy Fest there's more consumption ever how are you going to be defining a fantasy football sleeper Florio mute oh no it's okay you're not the I'm a professional I swear I was gonna say first uh thank you Welsh and Andrew for having me on uh Joe pipia hits me up every year to do the show and then is never on it when I come on so I I don't know where you are Joe but hi um to me a sleeper is someone that is being overlooked in drafts someone that is going to outlive their ADP and not just by like potential like they have the upsid to significantly outlive it like I I don't want a player who I have to draft at wide receiver 45 if his upsides wide receiver 40 so my sleepers are always players that uh at least in my head have upside to significantly outlive their ADP ericon I'm ask you the same question but in solidarity if you were a really good friend you would mute yourself to start answering before you answer this question but you choose what kind of friend you are what do you outline as a fantasy football sleeper what do I outline so for me it's I kind of like how a Floria went with the exceeding their ADP by a drastic amount and you think about the term sleeper you know where does that come from oh well you're sleeping on this guy right you're not high enough on X player I think that's really the of what a sleeper entails this player is someone that we're overlooking they're being underappreciated for the ceiling potential that they have and a lot of sleepers also are League winners at the same type of player so that's kind of how I look at it I love it and I just wanted to kind of throw that out there because I think uh there can be levels of people almost eye rolling at sleepers anymore oh what's a sleeper there's a million articles about it well getting the right definitions is super important when we talk about it and I think we got a great list here I will remind everybody if you guys have questions is this guy a sleeper or maybe your own sleepers drop them in the chat and we will get to them at the end of this episode here but let's kick it off with Florio Florio you've got a wide receiver from the Buffalo Bills oh there's a lot of money to be made in the Buffalo Bills wide receiving Corp and you're not going with the rookie you're gonna go with the Deep guy khil Shakir who's got an ADP and an ECR in the 50s baby ADP of wide receiver 50 ECR 59 looks like he might be Target why and how is khil Shakir your top sleeper at least your number one sleeper here because he's a good wide receiver I believe like he was top two in fantasy points per opportunity amongst wide receivers last year he had the highest catch rate ever posted by a wide receiver uh he was first in yards per Target at the position third in Yak per catch at the position and he is the only receiver on the Buffalo Bills roster who could be like hey I've I've caught a pass from Josh Allen in an actual NFL game none of the other guys on the roster could say that and not only can he say that but he earned more and more trust I believe down the stretch I mean the bills stuff behind you might give it away I'm a Bills fan so when they're in the playoffs I I'm very very invested watching those games very closely and uh Shakir had a lot of volume in the playoffs and you could make the argument that he had the two biggest plays uh for the bills against the Steelers he had that duck under where he he broke the tackle and took it for a touchdown and then against the Chiefs he had the one where Josh Allen like evaded all the pressure threw it to the sideline Shakir somehow kept his feed in bounds I think that kind of trust is going to go a long way especially early on in the new season where you are counting on a rookie and a bunch of new guys Curtis Samuel now banged up so I I like Shakir he's the cheapest of the three he is the best value in my opinion but you mentioned Keon Coleman I will say I'm also in on Keon Coleman at price I think Keon Coleman has League winning upside here but Shakir to me is a sleeper that is just being way too overlooked and I think a sure thing to outlive his ADP I and I think it's great you should listen to a Bill's fan about this just like Debro should listen to a 49ers fan about Brandon iuk across the situation you should listen to the smart people that know where the right take is not the wrong take so I agree with you on this K Shakur it's a really interesting situation too because the two wide receivers that come in both don't have that Rapport we've also heard some separation issues which could be something early on for Keon Coleman uh as far as defenses go and I kind of think Curtis Samuel is going to be that change of pace wide receiver that they're also going to use in the goal line so khil Shakur might be the guy that helps Drive the field so I like this one but Erikson what say you khil Shakir or Keon Coleman Curtis Samuel or none of the above so I like Shakir and Ken Coleman as well I think Ken Coleman has the highest upside if we're talking about okay we're going to be drafting a Bills wide receiver in round two next year who would it be it' probably be Keon Coleman like that's who we put the chips in on that would be the player that has a massive rookie year breakout touch to Josh Allen but Shakir you could see continuingly to rise up the ranks and look so far things are good for him you look at Curtis Samuel already out with turf toe injury he's weak to week Curtis Samuel is no stranger to being banged up he has stretches of production and then stretches where you don't see him on the field at all because he's injured so we're getting the Curtis Samuel experience already in Buffalo Florio get ready for it tons of for for Shakir the thing that you want to point out and Florida mentioned this as well he has that chemistry with Josh Allen and the concerns are well is he a full-time player is he a part-time player these are the same conversations we're having with these other polarizing wide receivers we mentioned on the show that are also in high-powered offenses tank Dell Jaden Reed khil shur what's the big difference between them they're all playing good offenses they're maybe part-time players not running around on 90% of the dropbacks oh well they all have really good quarterbacks too and Shakir is the one that's the cheapest outside the top 50 receivers so you're taking on all that risk as baked in but you're capturing all that upside of hey Shakir is Josh Allen's guy and that's what I want so let's move to what I would say is a Mount Rushmore player of the Fantasy Fest if you watch the whole time by the way you deserve an award hands up in the chat if you've been here the entire time we need to we you know what executive decision hands up I don't know how we'll check this if you've been here the whole time we're going to give a credit away to the the fantasy pros store so someone can get a hat if you've been here the whole time but if you have you know one of the Mount Rushmore of players is J mlin we have talked about him a ton throughout and Erikson you're gonna get right back on that horse one of your top sleepers you've got ADP 51 on Jalil mlin rocket ship up talk to us about your number one sleeper I just think that he is exactly what you want in a running back sleeper he's coming from an ambiguous backfield is coming from an offense that we're not really sure how great it's going to me but when it comes to mcin what do we know about these Shawn Payton offenses what do we know about B Knicks they throw the ball to the running back position and that's the easiest way for us to get value get fantasy points because that matters we can talk about snaps and Target share and touches but eventually they need to score points because that's what actually counts in our actual lineups every single week they got to score fantasy points and that's what we see in Shawn pton offenses is they feed the running ball or they feed the running back the ball through the air and mofen looks like the number one projected check down option for B Knicks in this offense so javante Williams like how long is his leash actually and I don't even mind taking Javonte Williams like this whole Denver Denver Broncos backfield I think is just going to be a sleeping it's a sleeping backfield essentially like I want all parts of this I mentioned this earlier I want to leave every draft with a wide receiver from the Green Bay Packers my other rule of thumb I want to leave every draft with a running back from the Denver Broncos and most often it's chalil mlin as that guy so he's looked great in the preseason looked explosive using him in the passing game getting Red Zone usage so for me he did exactly what Jaylen Warren did his undrafted year first year as a rookie basically had to prove it all basically from a decorated college program and or an underrated college program but it was very productive and then he comes in establishes him that he can be the number two running back they've already supplanted samama per on the depth chart and I think he's like on that Jaylen Warren trajectory where now we're drafting Jaylen Warren over Nai Harris a first round pick from Alabama and we're concerned that oh well javante is there he's going to take away all the touches from mlin I don't think that's going to happen I think mlin when people ask me hey who's the sleeper running back I say jul mland yeah I think it's interesting too because like the comparison of the Green Bay Packers wide receivers but also I would say there's a similar comparison in that I think you can you get a room of 10 people you can probably find someone that likes each of the four uh Green Bay Packers wide receivers at number one I think like gavon Williams is kind of the same thing like falls into that same Bo boat with Julia mlin and then estimate too people like people find a Denver Broncos running back to like Florio just really quick on on Jalil mlin are you a mlin or a javante Williams guy uh at Cost I'm in on both um all summer I was like you got to find the one that's going to be the pass catching back and I liked what I saw yesterday at like not only has Bo Knicks looked a lot better than we all expected but uh javante largely had most of the snaps on the first drive but mlof was sprinkled in and then it was the opposite on the second so to me it seems like those two right now are at least highest in the pecking order javante had the receiving touchdown that didn't count but mlin we know is explosive if mclin's ADP climbs a few rounds then I might not be in but where he's going now in the RB 4S and then M uh javante Williams as a rb3 I think both are good values right now all right I love this one that we're going to get to because this guy does not scream fantasy football sleeper it's kind of post hype sleeper or just post production sleeper if you want to call it that we're going with florio's number two and we are going to Austin Eckler people out on Austin Eckler RB uh 32 on the ECR 29 on the ADP a lot of Brian Robinson but Florio you're saying hold your horses here Eckler might be a value yeah I I've been an Austin eckar guy since before he had a podcast and before it was cool like I'm talking about before covid I I've been in on Austin Eckler so I'm going out the way I came in I this guy has won me so many championships I'm not going to doubt him but originally like early on in this process I was not really an Austin Eckler guy but uh let's remember he suffered a high ankle spray in week one that landed him on the IR and then pert Austin Eckler that was his right ankle he came back and his first game back he sprained his left ankle so we've seen high ankle sprains be season killers before now he's playing on two sprained ankles with an offense that's missing your top two wide receivers your quarterback for much of it and a bunch of offensive line pieces I'm not willing to say that Austin Eckler is just done yet now I understand that that is a in the range of outcome because he's getting older he he has a lot of career touches stuff like that but I think last year was largely situational and the other thing is like everyone you look at these two backs and it's Melvin Gordon versus a Eckler all over again everyone is like Brian Robinson Jr is going to be the goal line back just look at them okay Austin Eckler is better near the goal line last year more than double his goal line Touches at a at more than double the rate of Brian Robinson I should say were turned into touchdowns and over the last two seasons it's the same thing more than double his goal line touches ratewise compared to Brian Robinson so I'm not willing to say he's not going to be utilizing near the goal line more he's going to be the passing down back and and yesterday the usage was first drive Brian Robinson mostly second Drive almost all Austin Eckler if these guys are splitting drives but then Eckler's getting the two-minute drill and the obvious passing down situations because let's be honest he's getting those I think he could be the better value of the two yet he's going a couple of rounds later and in most drafts you get him in the double digit rounds if he was going like the fifth or sixth round I'd probably be out but at Cost he is so cheap and I think that he could be a lot better than people are expecting so I I'm still still willing to to go out with my guy Erikson I think the two biggest questions around this for people are what can he do limited because the touches are most likely going to be limited but then also not just Brian Robinson but Jaden Daniels you who got a running quarterback who I know we're going to talk about here in just a little bit I think that makes some people queasy but we have also seen Eckler be a monster can you co-sign on this one Ericson I feel like this is going to push your limits yeah no I'm team Brian Robinson all the way that that's where I stand and I I do agree that it is weird to see Eckler down this lowly ranked and I think it is really those injuries are really being held against him probably too much and too significantly but I just have trouble wrapping my mind around okay if it's a mobile quarterback is Jane Danel Really Gonna check the ball down to Austin Eckler I I just don't think that's gonna happen unless the rest of the receivers in this offense are just so horrible and it's ter M they literally have nobody else then I could see Eckler breaking into a larger role as a receiver so that would be one caveat that would say okay that's a path where I could see it and then to your goal line projection between Eckler and Brian Robinson doesn't matter what I think doesn't matter what you think it matters what Anthony Lynn the Run game coordinator thinks and when he was there with the Chargers he never gave eka the ball at the goal line he only gave it to Melvin Gordon and it was only until he left the coaching staff with the Chargers Austin Decker scored 20 touchdowns back toback years so that's the one thing that I'm looking at from a coaching staff perspective if they're looking at for Anthony Lynn like hey what do you think the Run game coordinator who are you going to put at the goal line I think that he's going to lean Robinson again we'll find out when it happens when they actually hit the goal line and then one of us will be right one of us be wrong but for me I think it is Robinson and I think I rather try to I I prefer him at Cost I also like the idea a little bit more even of ekler and full PPR I think that's like another sneaky spot to make sure and watch and maybe get some later value on we've got the second half of fantasy football sleepers coming up but friends let's first tell you how you can get these fantasy football sleepers into your drafts with the draft wizard you can master your draft with the draft wizard our tools offer simulated mock drafts that let you practice and refine your draft strategies against realistic opponents I just did this in my Flex draft last week I did 10 mock drafts before I ended up at my draft spot with all the user Intel and it made my life a ton easier you can get personalized pick recommendations best based on Expert rankings ADP projections and ensuring you make the best choice at every stage of your draft analyze your draft results instantly with our draft analyzer which provides feedback and insights to help you improve and you can sync your link your league with a few clicks leverage draft Intel to see your league M draft Trends and strategies like I said and then perform those simulated mocks against your league settings make informed decisions avoid common pitfalls and draft with confidence try draft wizard today at fantasypros.com slra Wizard or on the fantasy football draft Wizard app and dominate your leagues today time for the second half of these fantasy football sleepers and we're not going anywhere else besides the uh commanders we're going to stick at the quarterback spot number two on the Mount Rushmore of players we've talked about today if you got the first segment in Jake cely was talking about him and his projections Andrew Ericson Jaden Daniels as a top sleeper for you let's do it fantasy football doesn't have to be hard guys just draft J Daniels as your late run quarterback sleeper quarterback so he's a sleeper to me because his ADP is qb12 so that is a qb1 you're drafting him as a starter but he could be going higher we've seen mobile quarterbacks go higher in drafts than Jaden Daniels before look at the college level rush for over 3,300 yards average nearly 60 rushing yards per game that was the same amount as Anthony Richardson entering the college entering the NFL last season and where do we have Anthony Richardson ranked after four incomplete games he's a top five quarterback in fantasy how many games are we going to have to see from J Daniels in the NFL to rank him as the top five fantasy quarterback I don't think it's gonna take very much and the thing that's different about Daniels versus Richardson Daniels has so much more experience he's so much more polished as a passer coming out because he has so much more experience at the college love he played 55 games in college he's an older Prospect but that means he's ready to go and we've seen Cliff Kingsbury before work his magic with a rookie quarterback another mobile rookie his name was Kyler Murray he was qb7 overall all his rookie year he was qb2 in points per game he was third in carries second in rushing yards again going back to how many receivers do we trust in this offense it's Terry mcen maybe dump it off to a running back or tight end and then run that's how I think the offense is going to be structured here so I love Jaden Daniels he's the reason why just one of the reasons why I love the late round quarterback approach in redraft leagues I want to get an elite tight end I want to be drafted receivers and running backs and then I'm G just take Jaden Daniels as my starting quarterback one and I feel really confident with with it and I would recommend everyone else do the same yeah it's an interesting thing Florio too with the quarterback spot because like I there's like a top eight that you can really get into and then obviously I do think the tiers start to change but what's so weird about it is you can easily pair Jaden Daniels with Brock perie you know you can end up waiting even longer and pairing Jaden Daniels with a Trevor Lawrence there's just really great pairs that have such low cost that make Jaden Daniels exciting except we have been seeing some of his value move up I did a draft where Jaden Daniels went before Joe burrow so people are kind of in on it are you in on the idea that Jaden Daniels is a quarterback fantasy football sleeper I'm not in on the idea that he's a sleeper because I have him in my top 10 so like I I I don't think you could be a sleeper when you rank that high but I get the thinking of completely like I'm fully on board with Jayden Daniels um Kyler Murray is a great example Lamar Jackson Anthony Richardson Jaylen Herz the list goes on and on and on these guys are quarterback ones from the moment they step on the field jayen Daniels could run for 800 yards the only reason like I have I I keep saying you could take Anthony Richardson then Kyler Murray then Jayden Daniels and and Daniels is the one I have the most of the only reason I have him lowest of that is because I don't think he'll get the rushing touchdowns like Anthony Richardson will but yeah to me my favorite combo is I have a lot of Jayden Daniels and Jared gof because gof is like set your watch we know when he's home or indoors he's going to give you respectable numbers so that covers your bases a little bit in case it doesn't work out with Jaden Daniels but yeah I jayen Daniels and Joe burrow are two that I go back and forth on all summer um but yeah I I'm very very high and and completely in on jayen Daniels all right we've got the final two fantasy football sleepers from these fine gentlemen they're both wide receivers but we are going to go just one to one because we do want to answer a couple questions so unfortunately ericon I'm just not going to come to you with any of your takes after this great sleeper but we will get your great sleeper so don't you worry we're going to go Floria with your rookie wide receiver lad makoni is your fantasy football your final fantasy football sleeper for this bad boy wide receiver ADP 30 uh 42 and ECR 40 where is the ceiling and where is the floor on lad maconi the floor is definitely a bit low because um the offense could be very run heavy and stuff like that and I don't love then in preseason so far he's only playing in three wide receiver sets but it's so early that that w wide receiver depth chart is so thin he could quickly climb to be the number one Target and in the NFL draft process after the elite three he was my wide receiver four so he was my top one after the big three he could do everything he could win after the catch he could win downfield he reminds me of Tyler Lockett and I know they're going to run a lot in Los Angeles but Harbor has always had a very highly efficient passing attack and with Justin Herbert there I don't think that'll change makoni is as efficient as they come he thrives play action so I could see him just early on probably someone you want more as a reserve wide receiver but as the year goes on I think he has wide receiver three maybe even wide receiver two upside volume being the only concern the most exciting thing about all of these like rookie wide receivers obviously outside of like Harrison and neighbors but like every other year they just come at cheap costs and like the return when you can get these wide receivers that go on your bench these rookie wide receivers that go on your bench you can also afford to stomach through a little bit of hardship because you don't even have them out there starting where the second half if they pick it up bam you got all upside Erikson take us home baby with the Final Fantasy Football sleeper and then we'll get to a couple of our listener questions here Erikson you have a wide receiver and we have oft mentioned him a whole bunch of times we're going back to Green Bay because Erikson says You must have a Green Bay wide receiver when you leave your draft those that know ball know about Davian Wicks and that's how you can prove to all your league makes that you know ball so Davian wicks for me look last year as a day three rookie wide receiver got a chance to play with Christian Watson out and he was really productive very efficient average nearly two yards per route run ranked 27th among all wide receivers fifth among all rookie wide receivers per trudia first his first downs per route run tied Devonte Adams for top 20 among all players and look we've talked about this before Michael FL he's vomiting at the idea that he could possibly have a number one wide receiver on his team so what does that mean well that means Wick Wix is going to have his fair share of weeks in this offense to be the number one for that particular week so again injuries happen and that's how things may or may not shaken out we could debate all year long who the Packers receiver won then one injury here one injury there oh what do you know there's your answer for you I'm just confident that if Wicks is given the opportunity to see a bigger role to see a higher Target share in this offense that he can deliver and that's not a given that's not a guarantee with a lot of wide receivers a lot of wide receivers have had opportunities and then they lay face on their they they do not deliver and it's very concerning but with Wix I don't have that concern I I feel confident that if he given a bigger role if he can usurp Watson or a Romeo dos then I think that he can deliver a lot of upside from what he showed last year as a rookie so for me again going back to one of my Staples of drafting this year leave your draft with a Packers wide receiver and currently Wix unless you want to count Bo Melton Wix is the cheapest one that you can draft Erikson you almost pulled a Welsh ISM you almost did an analogy every time I see your face the welis are just like if you don't know it's take an analogy say it wrong that's a Welsh ISM he almost did fall flat on their face and that almost became a really good wel ISM gentlemen are you guys good for a couple questions before we end this bad boy want to answer a few from the people hey I do want to say because I'm so nice Tony you are G to get the $25 uh gift card gift whatever you want to call it to the fantasy pros store get yourself a fantasy pros or betting Pros hat or whatever you want to do we got amazing hoodies we got some awesome stuff but Tony hit us up hit up the admins you've been here the whole time you did the hand a lot of you guys did want to give something back to you so you can take home a little bit of Swag so hit us up on the admin stuff we'll get you hooked up you'll know how to find us all right uh here are some questions uh ad it Kiren or aan Florio Kiren for me uh I know the upside that aan brings but he also brings a lot of risk and Kiren I know Blake Corum is there but I still expect him to get a boatload of work this year as long as he stays healthy so I have him a few spots higher than hn kirn for you Erikson right no hn hn baby trying to manipulate all right well then let's do this one Gus Edwards or JK Dobbins if you're gonna get in invested here I actually have an invested take here but are you Gus or JK I am JK Dobbins all the way let's go let's go Florio can you swing it your Gus Gus dude JK Dobbins is coming back from every severe injury known to man well see he's a completely GRE Roman Greg Roman doesn't know that Greg Roman only knows that when they were playing together in Baltimore Dobbins was his rb1 and not Gus Edwards so that's what I'm Gonna Roll with and JK does look healthy at this moment I I'm a little bit of an optimist where it's like I like to play on the talent versus the injury that's why you know Christian mcaffry is my number one player not making excuses for theoretical injuries out there just the most talented player no big deal I mean he does have a real calf train it's not theoretical it's fine it's fine it's fine don't worry about it they're just about the same C train that well Erikson well ericon you got to go oh sorry everybody ericon I think he has to go see you uh David says 12 team PPR superflex would you rather keep Bree Hall in the fourth or Kyler Murray in the eighth Floria let's start with you yeah I'm going Bree Hall in the fourth uh I love Kyler mury but you could get a top three running back in the that's a first round pick in the fourth round give me that all day oh Erics a good value on a quarterback but Bree that's might be your number one RB what do you think yeah I go Bree because you could just draft Murray in the eighth anyway so so just take Bree well probably not in the eighth but like the second or something yeah you can still get him and you can still get him early and get both but Breeze and the fourth all right we're gonna do two more uh KB says Pitman Devonte Smith or Malik neighbors Erikson I'm gonna go Pitman Pitman uh Florio what do you think neighbors Smith or Pitman I have Devon Smith the highest with Kell Moore there I I think that AJ Brown and or Devon Smith probably both could be in store for career years all right well I'm going to ruin it all and I'm going to say Malik neighbor because that's my guy I'm all I'm Malik neighbors so let's not give you anything helpful unless you just want to pick a certain analyst finally uh oh I didn't realize this another Malik question Malik or Chris Godwin come on this is Malik yeah it's Malik Malik we all agree here man Michael Florio thank you so much for hanging out and congratulations on the great work that you're doing Andrew Erikson you have been a monster and ladies and gentlemen you guys are animals especially you guys that have been hanging out this entire time five hours we just crossed the 5H hour mark on the fantasy pros Fantasy Fest with all of our awesome awesome fantasy pros people from Erikson to Debo Ryan Wormley Pat Fitz Morris even Joe pipia man and incredible guests throughout the entire day Chris Raybon Jake cely I got to get here with Florio and panowski incredible that you guys hung with us and an incredible job by everybody and I only hung out here for an hour listen we got you guys covered for all your fantasy football needs the draft wizard is going to get you set up we've got all the ranks here and tons more so make sure you go and check out all the amazing tools over at fantasy pros because you want to dominate your leagues this year make sure you're subscribed on the YouTube channel fantasy youtube.com fantasypros and all the podcasts because we are offering more podcasts than ever before on our Discord we've got tons and tons of them and we want you guys to be a part of all of it and it's a free community fantasypros.com chat you could potentially go more ladies and gentlemen I could talk more because I've only been here for an hour but we won't I just want to thank everybody here at fantasy pros and every one of you guys everybody s behind the scenes did an incredible job thank you guys so much for hanging out with us and making fantasy pros your number one destination for the fantasy football season for Florio Erikson and the entire team I salute to you all and thank you for hanging out with us and we'll talk to you next time right here on fantasy pros bye friends for