Fantasy Football BUSTS to Avoid | Don't Draft These Players

Introduction welcome back to the face of Pros YouTube channel my name is Derk Brown on today's video we are going to walk through every single round of the drafts and I'm going to give you my player in each round to avoid so you don't fall into these potholes in your upcoming drafts before we get to these 14 players we have to discuss are you tired of draft a uncertainty here I got to tell you about the cheat cheat Creator it's your personal guide to perfect League specific rankings visualize your path to Victory as you add tiers and sink your league to craft custom rankings ensuring every pick is strategic and tailored to your league settings enter your draft with confidence sync your league today at fantasypros.com draft Wizard or on the fantasy football draft Wizard app and use the cheat sheat Creator to dominate your draft let's get to these 14 players all right first round we got to Saquon Barkley talk about sequan Barkley this was tough this was a tough round to find a player that you should be avoiding but I have questions about saquin not the youngest running back in the league I'm not saying he's ancient he's old but we did see some fallof for saquin last year amongst 49 qualifying running backs he was 25th in Miss tackles fors per attempt 23rd in yards into contact attempt while these are not terrible numbers these are not the Stellar numbers we have expected from saquan Barkley in previous seasons and look at the context of this offense we think they could throw more with kelore this year they're probably going to run a lot of plays but what's the touchdown ceiling is Jaylen Herz going to steal goal line work also what is the pass game involvement look like for saquan he's flanked by AJ Brown Devonte Smith Dallas Goddard extremely capable and talented pass catchers in their own right and we know a lot of times when Jaylen Herz has the option of well check it down or taking off running Jaylen Herz is going to take off running so saquin it's a question of ceiling and if we're talking about players in the first round where we're talking about okay who could be the rb1 overall the rb3 the the top five running back from this year's fantasy drafts I have a hard time seeing that saquan Barkley pays off at his current ADP okay next player we got to Davante Adams talk about in the second round Devonte Adams and again this comes down to I don't hate the player I hate the ADP Devonte Adams we have to discuss last year was second and raw Target volume second and Target share amongst all wide receivers do we think that volume grows with now l getsy in town we know Antonio Pierce wants to run the ball and he's the wide receiver 10 and 80P right now he didn't even pay that off last year he a wide receiver 15 in fantasy points per game so what are we gravitating to to for Devonte Adams what maybe he gets traded away from the Raiders it is a tough tough ask to press the button on Devonte Adams in the second round despite the fact that yes he is still one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL but quarterback problems the situation around him too many questions and I worry about the ceiling for Devonte Adams avoid him in the second round of drafts all right now we're into Rachaad White the third round and a guy that I have discussed on previous videos and I'm going to talk about him again here Rashad white and this comes down to I think Bucky Irving factors into this backfield as well as what do we see for Rashad weight last year amongst 49 qualifying running backs he was outside the top 39 and Miss tackles Force per attempt explosive run rate and yards of the contact per attempt so if the volume takes a hit with Irving factoring into the backfield then do we think that Rashad white can make the most out of his touches maybe in the past game but not in the early down and what do we see in the context of this offense is this offensive line going to be just blowing up holes for him and giving him a ton of Running Room they didn't do it last year few upgrades on the offensive line in the off season but still this is probably a bottom five bottom 10 unit they're going to have to throw the ball and yes Rashad White's going to get Target volume but if he does not end up with a top five clip as far as snapshare weighted opportunity all these different things where he is just soaking up the volume like a sponge Rashad White could disappoint this year I'm going to avoid him in the third round all right Stefon Diggs heading to the fourth round of drafts the guy I got to talk about here is Stefon Diggs and the question that we're all trying to answer and none of us can conclusively answer this is what does Stefon Diggs have left in the tank we could talk about the motivation we could talk about okay CJ Stout is him and all these different narratives but what did we see on the field last year weeks 10 through 18 Stefon Diggs was the wide receiver 45 or higher in weekly scoring only twice over that span he only had one game with more than 80 receiving yards in that span he was the wide receiver 52 in fantasy points per game and now arguably can we say that he's entering a more talented depth chart yes the quarterback play is still going to be really good but tank Dell Nico Collins who are immensely talented players in their own right can they steal away enough volume from Stefon dicks even if he's still really good to where he could pay off on his current ADP even if we want to dismiss the talent concerns and what he did last year and even if you want to go the year before that of how these Fades down the stretch have become problematic does that cross over into the full season for Stefon digs I I can't answer that definitively so that leads me to fade and avoid Stefon Diggs in the fourth round of fantasy drafts all right George Pickens staying with wide receivers here getting into the fifth round of fantasy drafts the guy that I cannot press the button on is George Pickins and this is simple Arthur Smith is coordinating this offense and we've seen what Arthur Smith does in Atlanta second lowest neutral passing rate do we think that changes in Pittsburgh we just saw the Steelers roll out one of the most runhe heavy offenses in the league down the stretch last year do you think that changes this year still a talented defense still good running backs in the back field you have two running quarterbacks I don't know who's going to be starting at the time of recording this video Russell Wilson or Justin Fields what out of all of this screams with Arthur Smith there that we see a true ceiling actualized for George Pickins we can also make a case for the fact of just Raw Talent Drake London and Kyle pittz are as talented if not more talented than George Pickins and I heck myself I've made cases over the last few years where okay Kyle pittz and Drake London are just that Talent they're going to overcome the situation around them and then we saw it didn't happen so do we think that George Pickins can overcome play calling bad quarterback play and this preseason we got some concerns about the offensive line you got two quarterbacks back there that love to hold the ball and I don't know how much time they're going to have in the pocket if the preseason blocking for this offensive line holds up it could be rough George Pickins while yeah you're paying a wide receiver three cost where's the ceiling at and what if he disappoints what if he turns in a wide receiver for the season or a low-end wide receiver three season where he's not a Difference Maker be sad you drafted him so avoid George Pickins in the fifth round of drafts all right D’Andre Swift getting back on the running back train we're in in the sixth round here the guy that I look I've got to avoid is DeAndre Swift and DeAndre Swift this is simple have we ever seen DeAndre Swift be a redsone monster do we think that that is his definitive role considering we saw Chicago just turn over running backs use a full-blown committee and yes you I know I know everybody's watching this video they're going to say well follow the money did that really help us last year for my sanders we followed the money into Oblivion into a dumpster fire and I'm not saying that Chicago Bears their offense is going to be a dumpster fire far from it I think they're going to be very good but I think they're going to live and die by the pass and you're saying to yourself yes but isn't DeAndre Swift a really good pass catcher okay that's fine but he's still going to need touchdowns and we still need efficiency and workload out of him I can't definitively say that khil Herbert's not going to factor in this backfield or Roshan Johnson isn't going to factor into this backfield both in the red zone and in the early downs and DeAndre Swift look if you're drafting him as a rock solid rb2 he wasn't even that last year you take out the two monster games in week 2 and week three he produced as the rb25 in fantasy points per game averaging only 72.4 total yards per game it's not a player that I want to be gravitating to and again we're talking about Swift moving from the Eagles offensive line to the Chicago Bears offensive line top three top five unit to middle of the road at best ah can't press the button on DeAndre Swift avoid him this year okay heading into the Dak Prescott seventh round the guy that I got to discuss here is Dak Prescott yes I know he was amazing last year Supreme value was awesome this all boils down into what do we think the Dallas Cowboys off offense is going to be this year yes I know we're going to get a heaping dose of CD lamb and that's great and I know Dak Prescott the passing raate was up and stuff this offense is extremely thin do we feel good about the weapons that are coming out of the back field offensive line has a few concerns although I think they're going to be okay Brandon Cooks probably over the hill Jaylen Tolbert looking more like a bust than a savior Jake Ferguson is fine but he's not a difference making tight end he's good for what he does and he can beat its own coverage but is he the player that's going to be if you had to lean on him as the definitive two in this offense the guy that's going to be a matchup Nightmare and running alongside CI lamb and these two pillars of the Dallas Cowboys passing attack are true differen makers no so with Dak Prescott he's not running anymore it's all from the pocket the weapons after CD lamb I'm sure if you want to throw in Jake Ferguson after those two guys it's questionable at best if we see Dak Prescott not come back and be Superman and Cape up and just car carry the entire offense which he's capable of he proved it last year if he doesn't do that this year and he's not amazing he's not superh human and he's just good or very good is that going to equal a top 10 quarterback top eight top 12 he could be a high-end QB too and this is no shade against Prescott but that just could be the reality of this offense there are too many other quarterback options in fantasy drafts for me to draft Dak Prescott where he goes I can grab similar upside just draft Trevor Lawrence later yeah I've got to avoid Dak Prescott this year all right heading to the eighth round of fantasy drafts David Njoku the guy I got to discuss here moving over we're going to talk about the first tight end on this list David and joku and you're going to say to yourself man but wasn't he amazing with Joe flacko last year like a League winner sure is Joe flacko still in Cleveland as we queue up the Jeopardy music no no he's not you are relying on the armed Talent of deshun Watson now and all I can say is good luck with that for David and joku when we saw deshun Watson in a full-time role playing five games last year David and jok's numbers cratered he had a 15% Target here he only produced 1.23 yards per route run 35.2 receiving yards per game El Drew one inzone target so you're saying to yourself okay well those maybe aren't that bad he also again if you want to boil this down to fantasy points 8.5 fantasy points per game and PPR that would have been good for the tight end 17 last year now you're talking about okay well they added Jerry Judy they got other pass game weapons in this offense and do we think deshun Watson truly bounces back if he doesn't and we get David and joku looking like a similar version of last year with DeShawn Watson under Center he's going to disappoint he's not going to be a top 12 tight end because he didn't even produce like that last year if you want to take the shot on okay one one option out of this passing attack is bulletproof and we want to say okay he's going to produce no matter what fine draft Amari Cooper but it's not David and joku okay almost Jordan Addison to the double digits people let's keep motoring on round nine got to talk about Jordan Addison I'm don't even going to bring up any of the off field stuff I'm not even going to talk about possible suspension or any of that because it's all speculation we are just going to discuss what Jordan Addison did on the field last year and you're going to say yeah but he was wi receiver 30 in fantasy points per game pretty good right okay cool I can get him as a wide receiver three or four from a team that was all fueled by Insane touchdown run out Jordan Addison finished hide for the fourth most receiving touchdowns in the NFL last year tied with and he was behind only Mike Evans Tyreek Hill cidi lamb do you think that that happens again in 2024 Sam darnold as the quarterback okay now we're on the same page you're saying to yourself no no that probably doesn't happen Okay well what about he's going to draw targets at a high rate okay we got to believe in Jordan Addison okay let's talk about his Target drawing ability amongst 81 qualifying receivers last year this is where Jordan Addison ranked 46th in Target share 59th in targets per route run 51st in yards per route run and 58th in first downs per route run none of those metrics are kind to Jordan Addison so all you're doing by drafting him this year is buying into insane touchdown luck that he had last year and unless that repeats which that's a difficult bet to make in 2024 he's going to disappoint on your squad avoid him in drafts all right people we are into the Gus Edwards double digits rounds give yourself a round of applause we're getting there people we're getting there round 10 we have to avoid Gus Edwards the Gus bus there's no gas left on the tank it's bone dry the tires are flat the axles are rusted there is nothing pretty to see here for Gus Edwards yes I know that he was an rb3 last year all all fueled by the 13 total touchdowns that he had I don't think that's coming back in this iteration of the Chargers offense not this year people he's not going to draw Targets 2.8% target share last year he was outside the top 35 running backs in basically every tackle breaking metric he can pull up he's got competition in the backfield with JK Dobbins depending on what you think about him at this point in his career and kamani videll I cannot draft Gus Edwards he has no pass game upside you're legit hoping he's an rb3 who is basically a touchdown dependent rb3 and I just I'm not drafting him considering there is no upside to be had by getting Gus Edwards the upside you're chasing we saw last year and I'm sorry I want to draft the best team for 2024 not 2023 I'm not drafting G Edwards this year all right well Steelers fans I'm Pat Freiermuth sorry there go close your eyes put your thumbs in your ears and you just hit fast forward on this video I'm about to tell you another stealer to avoid in drafts and that's Pat FR me I'm not even going to tell you about the snaps that he's splitting in the preseason okay because you could say oh well it's just a preseason dere what are you talking about okay let's talk about his career numbers in his career Pat Fruth has drawn a 19.7% Target per route run rate doesn't sound too too bad 1.42 yards per route run in his career again doesn't sound that bad right okay if you take those career numbers and you stack that up against 60 qualifying tight ends last year that would have ranked 27th and 24th so yes I know you're grabbing him as a tight end too in most of your drafts but where is the ceiling if he does end up splitting routes which we've seen again parking back to Arthur Smith we've seen Arthur Smith do some funky things with player usage are you telling me that you can definitively say that when they get in the Red Zone they're going to throw the ball much less throw the ball to Pat forth if you think that's definitively going to happen Kyle pittz would probably like a word yeah I don't see it's going to happen you're going to see a lot more Darnell Washington you're going to see a lot more other players Cordell Patterson might stop by and say hi and if that happens you're going to regret drafting Pat FR mute this year all right to the Jerry Jeudy 12th round we go and again familiar offense and I feel like I'm just kind of beating up on the AFC North at this point but lots of really good defenses and the offenses are a little bit questionable we got to talk about Jerry Judy here if you want to explain it away and say well he's never had good quarterback play it's been this it's been that it's been this it's been that at what point are you just going to give up hope on Jerry Judy last year the wide receiver 53 in expected fantasy points per game produced as the wide receiver 55 in fantasy points per game last year what was standing in his way last year Portland Sutton okay not an elite level Target earner or just awesome wide receiver at this juncture of of his career so do you think that he's going to earn more targets than Amari Cooper in this offense I already talked about David and joku and the concerns about Deshawn Watson playing quarterback in this offense DeShaun Watson was arguably and just honestly just straight up bad last year in a real life football standard I I know he was okay from a fantasy standpoint but again that give that to the rushing not so much his ability to throw the football which is what we care about when we're talking about the pass catchers for the Cleveland Browns I can't invest in the pass catchers for Cleveland this year outside of Amari Cooper who again we talked about basically quarterback proof he proved that last year Jerry Judy is not proven that he could be quarterback proof much less good at any juncture of his career to this point for in fantasy so if you're hoping that he pays off at this late ADP no I'm I'm not taking that swing I will draft rookies I will draft other players and better offenses and I will avoid Jerry Judy all right now we Adam Thielan dig into the ARP well of the wide receivers we are going to talk about in round 13 Adam Thelen and I know this is probably a layup but look we're getting into these later rounds and I'm telling you players to definitively just cross cross off your list Adam thien should be immediately on your do not draft list and you're going to tell me okay well he started out really good last year to begin the year right okay can he do that again this year I'm not making a bet on that another year older and we saw him fade terribly down the stretch last year weeks 9 through 8 he surpassed 80 receiving yards in only one game only totaled 1.29 yards per route run which is replacement level at best an 8.9 fantasy points per game no when you get to the later part of your Draft take shots on running backs that are handcuffs or guys that are one injury away take shots on rookies that are ambiguous situations yes I'm staring at huge upon Baker in those situations we can gravitate to those guys and maybe actualize ceilings if everything hits I don't see that happening for Adam Thelen in 2024 all right to the final player on Jahan Dotson this list unfortunately I I I've got to squash the hope I am the boot and Jan doson is the bug doson do not draft him this year I just don't have any hope for him what have we seen in his NFL career outside of some touchdown luck amongst 81 qualifying wide receivers in each season he's ranked 68th and 57th and Target share he's ranked 78th and 52nd and yards per route run he's outside the top 60 wide receivers and other efficiency metrics we should care about and now he is falling to A A Team where I mean at best he's going to be behind AJ Brown Devon Smith Dallas SCD probably saquan Barkley so you're hoping for the fifth option on a Philadelphia Eagles offense there just not a path to immense upside here even if one of these players gets injured and you're going to say okay there's contingent upside maybe if one of them goes down maybe Jan doson in this awesome offense okay but he's had a clear path in previous years to do things and we still didn't even see that whether it was from a Target share earning potential or efficiency so why is he going to do that now in Philly I I will buy into all the other parts of this offense outside of saquon Barkley and outside of Johan doson where they go in drafts because I believe in them I can't draft those Eagles this year avoid doson and all your drafts all right Closing everyone that is the 14 players you need to be avoiding in your draft so everybody everybody I've given you one person for every single round of your drafts to cross off your list and let's make this easy use the cheat she Creator get doing drafts get ready to mock get ready for Fantasy it's all here baby week one will be here before we know it get ready with fantasy pros and I'll see you next time