10 Bold Fantasy Football Predictions for the 2024 NFL Season

Introduction Hello everybody welcome into the fantasy pros football podcast I'm Ryan warmley joined today by Derek Brown and by Pat Fitz Morris fellas it is week one we are 2 days away from real NFL football yes Debro I called it real football the preseason does not count we are two days away from actual professional football and I'm so excited Deb you were just telling us before we started recording that you're almost done with the week one primer yeah man I got a numero do I got two games left and then outside of updates and accounting for injury stuff it will be in the rear view man and talk about knocking the rust off uh on Labor Day weekend getting back into the throws of writing that Fitz knows what I'm talking about because he was uh you know crushing the waiver wire article for week one so you know we're we're knocking to rust off here boys week one's ready let's go Fitz how excited are you that we're back I mean there's nothing really like the anticipation of those couple of days before the first game of the season I know man um still got a couple more drafts left to knock out before I think down to two um that's good but and then worm we get games on Thursday and Friday so it is gonna be nice buildup to that first NFL Sunday uh good couple of days coming coming up so we should all be savoring this they're they're great games too I mean not only Ravens Chiefs obviously but Packers Eagles is super fun as well so a couple of really exciting games to kick things off we're GNA have I think I mentioned this last week but just for those who missed it we're going to have something close to our usual weekly podcast lineup this week we're not doing some of that early week stuff obviously we didn't have you know a show on Monday on Labor Day and Today's Show is a little bit different than it'll be on most Tuesdays um but we're GNA in the back half of this week have kind of that more normal getting into the ranks show and the start sit we're going to have our key questions show with the three of us on Friday so back half of this week will look normal and then starting next week will be kind of our same weekly lineup That you'll get throughout the rest of the season so uh really looking forward to all that and to to diving in and it's always a difficult transition to go from draft mode to actual weekly rankings mode but it's also a super fun time of year as well quick reminder for everybody all of our 2024 consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros.com rankings also the winner of trophy smacks teeny tiny loser mini belt giveaway is stink Manion I hope I'm pronouncing that correctly please get in touch with our customer support agents at mailbag fantasypros.com with your mailing address and proof of your subscription to the fantasy pros YouTube channel we'll get that shipped out to you again the winner is stink mangion which I suppose is a fitting name for a teeny tiny loser mini belt giveaway congratulations to stink we've also teamed up with our friends at trophy smack to give away something truly epic this week a large fantasy football wall smack of your choosing these magnetic metal wall plaques aren't just wall art they're statement pieces that let everyone know how passionate you are about fan fantasy football whether you go with the Sleek floating style or the Bold poster style wall smack is the perfect addition to your fan cave to enter all you need to do is subscribe to the fantasy pros YouTube channel right now drop a comment below on any of our videos and that's it we will be announcing a winner right here on the channel so make sure to turn on those notifications so you can know when new videos are up and to claim your prize all right fellas we figured as sort of our last offseason offseason show here excuse me uh I'm shaking off the r too uh we're going to talk about some bold predictions we're going to go through five from each of you in countdown style five to one from both of you and just kind of try and be bold and say here here's where what we think's going to happen this year and uh you know we're gonna there's there's varying degrees of boldness in your guys' takes we'll kind of get into that as as we go through I think they're largely pretty good though and uh and yeah we'll see maybe the fans will agree with some maybe they'll disagree with some let's start off with you DB bro your number five bold prediction for the season well I have waxed poetic the Geno Smith is a top 10 fantasy QB entire off season about how high I am on the Seattle Seahawks passing attack well this all has to come back to their quarterback and so I'm going to sit here and tell everybody that Chef Gino will be a top 10 fantasy quarterback yet again in 2024 we've already seen him do this once people 2022 qb8 and fantasy points per game and I know everybody that invested last year they're all saying it went terribly last year yes it did and that was specifically because of how bad their offensive line was and how much pressure Gino was under and I think that we get better blocking up front so I'm going to throw that out there first but I mean unfortunately Gino had to deal with the fifth highest pressure rate allowed in the NFL last year when he got clean Pockets he was still awesome last year in clean Pockets we're talking about a quarterback that was fifth best in yards per attempt had the highest Big Time throw rate in the NFL and fifth in passing grade so if he gets more clean pockets and we get better usage from these wide receivers yes I'm staring at jsn and we're not going to talk about the screen Merchant role that he was put in last year although I am bringing it up here if we get better usage for the wide receivers we get better blocking up front I think Gino Smith can be a top 12 fantasy quarterback I'm also going to double down and say he's going to be top 10 not even discussing yet the type of offense that Ryan grub is going to run when we're going to get more passing volume downfield shots Chef Gino prepare to cook again in 2024 the also just going to run more plays like and that's great for Fantasy scoring like even you know regardless of how efficient they are or whether there's a big plays or small plays running more plays is good like objectively they're just going to have more opportunity to accumulate fantasy points for us I've been really very interested in Gino as in the formats and the leagues where I'm getting a backup quarterback he's been my backup quarterback of choice in a lot of these formats I'd really like being aggressive on him so I love this take derra obviously you know not necessarily ranking him in the top 10 and that think that's what makes it a bold prediction but I I love this as kind of planting your flag on Gino as a guy to Target this year Fitz what are you doing with Gino Smith this season yeah he's been one of those guys I've I've got a lot of quarterbacks ranked in low-end qb2 range who I could see plausible upside for including uh Baker Mayfield Daniel Jones um but I just like I haven't been able to get him above like QB 24 but D bro makes a great case here and one of the the unheralded things that he brought up early is the health of their offensive line and I know last year they did not um they they got some Miss games out of what Charles cross and and Abraham Lucas their bookend pair of young tackles like if those guys stay healthy the P protection is going to be a lot better this year dbra where do you have gin ranked I do have him inside the top 24 I've actually got him at 20 so I am a little ahead of consensus on him I've got him at 20 and I think the conversation for him starts as high as QB 17 um I can say this and I just went through and my first run of week one rankings is live on fantasypros.com uh for week one I've got him at qb8 too but he's in a long tier of guys where like I know everybody's healthy right now and outside of like deeper leagues or superflex leagues like people are not going to worry about Gino Smith in week one but again if you're in a superflex league and you're kind of parsing between am I starting Gino am I starting Aaron Rogers Matthew Stafford like Gino I've got above all of those guys I got him at qb8 and I think I could even push him higher depending Fitz let's stick Michael Penix is the Falcons' starting quarterback before the end of October with the quarterback position for your number five bold prediction Michael Pennock is the Falcon starting quarterback by the end of October um Kirk Cousins has become this sacred cow in the fantasy football world because he's put up consistently respectable numbers um I would contend that cousins is a much better fantasy quarterback that real life quarterback uh so in other words I I think her cousins is kind of overrated and um one of my closest friends attended the University of Minnesota a long time ago um I visited him often and made friends with a lot of his friends who are native minnesotans and um those people are friends of mine to this day they were not head over heels in love with Kurt Cousins during his run with the Vikings and I think cousins was a very polarizing figure with Vikings fans um pretty poor record for cousins in big games uh Prime Time games Playoff Games Etc and if I had a dollar for every time I have seen Kirk Cousins throw short of the sticks in third and long situations I would take both of you fellas out for a nice steak dinner with uh good wine and all the trimmings so um cousins is 36 he's coming off at torn Achilles the Falcons spent a top 10 pick on Michael penx Jr and he is unquestionably their quarterback of the future yes the Falcons paid cousins a lot of money in the short run but what if cousins struggled like here's something interesting did you guys know that the only team with shorter odds to win their division than the Falcons are last year's Super Bowl teams the Chiefs and 49ers that's it the Falcons have very short odds so expectations are high in Atlanta and if this team underachieves early on because the offense isn't meeting expectations I could totally see the Falcons throwing Kirk Cousins overboard and going with their rocket armed room and in fact I I think it will happen I mean the Falcons protected penx in the preseason they know he's good and how important he is to the franchise we're gonna see penx take over as Atlanta's starting quarterback before Halloween Debo if penx does take over as a starting quarterback what does that do for the skill position players because you have been very aggressive on all of them on beon on Drake London especially on Kyle pittz as well what would penck starting do for those guys I think depending on how well he would play as the starting quarterback maybe it takes a little bit of the highend ceiling in terms of how many total touchdowns maybe we can project for this offense scoring maybe that kind of you know splits hairs between do you go Bree do you go beon right now in drafts where are we going to see Drake London finish the year is it as a wide receiver one or a top 20 wide receiver things like that so I think it would just split hairs as far as like looking at the overall touchdowns scored for the offense as a whole um but again that's that's if pennick doesn't hit the ground running and he's an awesome so you play out the bull case for him and he you know I'm not going to say he's this year CJ stoud I mean that because that's insane but um if he's just good this offense is still Consolidated enough that even with pennick under Center we know he's not going to run they're going to throw the offense probably looks very similar as to what we would expect with Kur cousins saw wouldn't move them down a ton fits not just thinking about this you know the skill position guys where would you rank Michael Pennock if he's a starter pretty similarly to where I'm ranking cousins mid-range quarterback 2 I mean he's got a rocket arm and he's going to make all the passing game components go if he does in fact replace cousins at some point NFL week one is here and a new season means new ways to get in on the action at draftking Sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NFL fans have spoken we want to bet on touchdowns DraftKings H us and is delivering draftking Sportsbook is the number one place to bet touchdowns ready to place your first bet try betting on something simple like picking a player to score a touchdown it all kicks off Thursday night with my Ravens taking on the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs in Kansas City with the chief sling a field goal at home the Ravens are looking for Revenge after getting upset in Baltimore last January two of the three best quarterbacks in football squaring off with a total at 46 and a half on DraftKings obviously you'll all be watching that amazing season opener but are you planning to do a touchdown dance of your own new DraftKings customers bet $5 to get $250 in bonus bets instantly plus one month of NFL Plus premium on us download the draftking Sportsbook app and use code fantasy pros that's code fantasy pros for new customers to get $250 in bonus bets when you bet just five bucks and get one month of NFL Plus premium on us offer ends September 19th only on DraftKings the crown is yours all right Fitz let's start with you this time what is your number four bold prediction Nico Collins scores Nico Collins is WR3 in Houston fewer fantasy points than both Stefon digs and tank Dell Nico is the wide re wide receiver three on his own team um Nico's ECR and ADP have kind of confounded me all off season um the Texans signs Stefan Diggs who averaged 111 catches 1343 yards and 9.3 touchdowns during his four years in Buffalo and yet Nico is still being regarded as this high-end wide receiver too um and I realized Stefon Diggs really kind of fell off a cliff late last season from week 10 through the end of the year including the bills two playoff games Diggs averaged 42.2 receiving yards per game and only 5.3 yards per Target terrible numbers but that downturn basically coincided with the promotion of uh Joe Brady to offensive coordinator for the bills after the firing of Ken dorsy so maybe Diggs just wasn't a good fit for what bra wanted to do um Diggs is 30 so AG is maybe a mild concern but we're probably a couple of Seasons away from an age related decline the Texans also have tank Dell and Debo I know you are a big tank Dell fan we also know that CJ Stroud is a big tank Dell fan because he has gone out of his way to talk up tank Dell at basically every opportunity um and look Dell's going to make some big plays for this team even if he does come off the field in two wide receiver sets so Nico is facing some major Target competition and he is coming off a season in which his efficiency was just through the roof 16.2 yards per catch 11.9 yards per Target 3.11 yards per route run those numbers are insanely good uh so good that they're probably unrepeatable and look I I love Nico I think he's a great player I love what a beast he is in contested catch situations and what a bully he is with the ball in his hands just batting away would be tacklers um but I realize those efficiency numbers are are going to dip they're probably still going to be well above average because he's good but I don't think what he did last year is repeatable regression is coming for Collins I think Stefon Diggs is goingon to leave the the Houston Texans and Targets this year I mean like he was brought in I think to be the alpha and Dell is GNA make his share of big plays I think Nico might be the third best fantasy receiver on his own team I I'm buying the idea that maybe Nico is overvalued because of the target competition and we shouldn't just say oh this guy was so good last year he's the alpha in the offense because there are other mths to feed it's harder for me to buy that he would actually be wide receiver three of course that's what makes it bold Debra what do you think about this one um I I I get the standby Fitz here I mean I disagree with it because I've been high on Nico the entire offseason and what he did when the entire offense basically condensed around him last year I will say that this is still one of the biggest questions of because right now as we're recording it we're still in the off season this has been one of the biggest questions of the entire off scene offseason is what does Stefon Diggs have left in the tank and if he still Stefon Diggs there is still a shot that he leads this team in receiving yards and targets and everything else and then we're talking about what's the perceived roles for the other two guys in this offense tank Dell and Eco Collins and how much 12 and 21 Personnel is this team going to run and is tank Dell because he's probably going to be the slot wide receiver this year is he going to play a full-time role and what that looks like so I I don't hate the call by Fitz because again you look at two to three different wide receiver rooms in the NFL right now Chicago and Houston being the big standouts and we're all kind of saying okay we're throwing our hands up and saying I I don't know who's going to be the number one the number two the number three this year so I'm not going to push back too hard against Fitz and say okay I know exactly how this is going to work out because it could work out exactly how Fitz is laying out here for those who missed it we did an episode that dropped on Labor Day this week um where we kind of asked some of our key questions for the fantasy season and I put those questions together and the number one question I wrote down was what happens with this receiving room right like I think I've said it all off season I think it's one of the key questions that if you get it right on draft day you will set yourself up for real success during Fantasy season is is figuring out who was the right guy to Target in this offense was there a right guy to Target in this offense at cost and and seeing how it plays out now 2024 Christian Watson is 2023 Nico Collins speaking of Nico Collins you reference him here Debo in your next bold prediction yeah we're talking about niik Collins and how special of his 2023 season it was last year Well I'm going to give you the 2024 version of Nico Collins right now and that is Christian Watson 2024 Christian Watson will be 2023 Nico Collins and I know everybody is is crafting their hamstring jokes right now as you're listening to me save them because Christian Watson is going to bury and put all of those in a coffin with his performance this year and what we saw last year in a very small sample only two games where Jordan love was playing Elite type of uh football Christian Watson averaged 24 fantasy points per game almost had a 24% Target share and just crushed it an offici icy metrics and this isn't the first time that we've seen Christian Watson do that he did it in his rookie season and we always talk about okay we need to invest in talented second year wide receivers but he wasn't able to stay healthy last year if he stays healthy this year we're going to see a monster season for Christian Watson and we're talking about the efficiency we're talking about the target volume think he is the clear wide receiver one for the Green Bay Packers and worm you talked about earlier anytime touchdown SC ing bets I already made one on the betting Pros app already and the odds have moved in my favor for Christian Watson to score in anytime touchdown in week one I think I got it at plus 380 and that's down down to plus 175 so tail it if you wish but this all comes down to Christian Watson is going to be amazing and it starts week one yeah I mean the simplest way to look at this fits is you know what was the key to niic colins finally breaking out it was he had a really good quarterback finally and we're now going to see theoretically a health the Christian Watson with a really good quarterback for the full season I mean it's very easy to paint that picture you as a Packers fan I'm sure are excited about Christian Watson as well this season I am and I'm most excited about his touchdown potential we have seen him score touchdowns in bunches as a rookie he had eight Over a Four game stretch last year he had four over a three- game stretch he's 6'4 with a big wig span so we could see him be a major Red Zone Target for the Packers and he has sub four4 speed that really shows up on the field so he can take it to the house from pretty much anywhere on the field like this guy is a dangerous weapon and I could easily see him scoring double digit touchdowns are you ranking him as wide receiver one in Green Bay or do you have Jaden Reed ahead of him no I have Watson highest they're close not much separation I think they're maybe three or four guys apart but I do have Watson ranked highest I believe I do as well Debo you already mentioned that you think he's wide receiver one in Green Bay so I assume you also have it ranked that way yeah I've got him at wide receiver 3 right now in in uh preseason ranks and I think the closest guy I have to him is Jaden Reed at wide receiver 42 yeah I've got I've got Watson at 36 and Reed at like 39 so they're close but I do have Watson ahead as well so we're all in agreement on that one all right Fitz let's go to your number three bold prediction what do you have for us all Brock Bowers finishes as a top-3 fantasy TE right well so far Debro has been all ice cream cones and puppy dogs and I've been Mr salty here so I should probably come up with some sort of positive player prediction and I'm going to say that Brock Bowers finishes as a top three fantasy tight end um it was pretty much love its sight for me when I first saw Bowers suited up for uh Georgia as an 18-year-old freshman he just kept making plays for one of the best teams in the country uh ran like a wide receiver I think the first time I ever saw him he had like a 90 yard catch and run against University of Alabama Birmingham really early in his freshman season where he just uh like basically outran defensive backs to the end zone um and then he also looked like George KD after the catch just bullying people and and being impossible to tackle I was actually really sad when I learned that he was a freshman and we wouldn't be able to draft him in fantasy leagues until 2024 at the earliest well friends it is 2024 now and uh I've I've drafted a whole bunch of Brock Bowers I'm really excited about it he is one of the best tight end prospects if not the best tight Prospect to ever come into the league um 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns in that freshman year at Georgia then as a sophomore he goes out and wins the John Mackey award as the best tight end in the country uh goes out and wins the Macky award again in his junior year fell out of the top 10 in this year's draft and I think some teams are going to really regret passing on him um fast has great hands can get open against man or Zone um can be the ultimate Swiss Army light uh knife who lines up all over the place in line out wide in the slot in the back field a lot of people are kind of concerned about the Raiders quarterback situation like letting the air out of Bowers tires in year one but I mean Gardner mchu floated a 109 Catch season for Michael Pitman last year and even though the Colts had the most confusing tight end goulash in the NFL last year all those tight ends still combined for 70 catches and 883 yards so I don't know my my bigger concern I guess was Raiders offensive coordinator Luke gatsy Bowers is this ultimate chess piece and I'm you know or at least was a little worried that gatsy is a a Checkers player who wouldn't know how to use this chess piece well Bowers played one preseason game and gsy moved him around all over the formation even at a Target coming out of the back field I was really encouraged by that we're coming off a season in which a rookie tight end Sam laporta was the leading fantasy scorer at the position I'm not going to predict that we have two straight rookies as the top fantasy tight end but I will predict that Bowers is among the top three tight ends in fantasy scoring I'm glad you brought up Le Porto because I was goingon to ask you Fitz are you putting a lot of weight into the fact that we just saw a rookie do this and like d dton can Kate to a lesser degree have a very good first year as well because typically prior to 2023 not that it never ever happens but it's pretty rare for rookie tight ends to make it an impact in year one it's a position that lends itself to taking a couple of seasons for guys to really break out so the fact that we just saw it last year in such a magnificent way from leaport is that Weighing on your mind as you make this Bowl prediction for Powers because without that happening it would be even kind of harder to buy into it I feel like just given that it doesn't really happen usually Loris rookie year breakout does sort of encourage me to have this faith in Bowers but really it's all about Bowers and the kind of prospect he is like this dude is special and I mean like we generally have these negative associations with Kyle pittz because he's really let fantasy managers down the last couple years but he did come in as this heralded tight end Prospect and have a thousand yard season the first one we've seen by a rookie since Mike dika 60 years earlier and Bowers is a better Prospect than pits was that's I know you've been on that Hill for a while so it's not surprising for me to hear you say that but it is still like I'm remembering just a few years ago how much everybody talked about pits as generational so hearing somebody be called just a few years later better than him is is interesting I know that's been your stance for a while Debo what are you expecting out of Bowers this year I think he's gonna be top 12 I think so I'm going to give the easy Avenue for Fitz's take to payoff Devon Adams gets traded to the New York Jets early in the season and it opens up the entire Target pie for Brock Bowers and then jacobe Myers Falls in behind him as the number two option and Bowers is the one that that's that's the Avenue because really what are you talking about like outside of that like Adams we know is going to threaten for 160 plus targets and without him in that in that room and that passing game it should be all Brock Bowers and so like for for Bowers you know we can talk a lot about like how much is he G like how much his Snaps are going to be his routes per game is Luke gy going to involve Michael Mayer is this more of a dton conc situation and not a Sam leapa situation yeah we could talk about all of that but I'm not going to push back on fits as far as the legendary talent that Brock Powers is so if the Avenue for just Monster targets here gets opened up and Adams is gone because we saw like anybody that's watched the Netflix series he was not happy last year for the Raiders so I'm not going to rule out that he's a Las Vegas Raider for the entire year um so yeah that's the Avenue of how this pays off that sounds like a an 11th bold prediction Deb that sounds like a bonus the Devonte Adams tra can you imagine how upset the Garrett Wilson investors would be the quarterbacking they have dealt with the last two years all of a sudden things are looking good you've got Aaron Rogers under Center Devonte Adams gets traded to the Jets oh as a heavy Garrett Wilson investor myself I would hate that fit it didn't you take we're we're in the middle of a a slow draft uh right now with on the content team um didn't you take Wilson in that League it's 14 Team league I think yeah he did g Wilson at the 110 so you want to see the prediction come true but do you want to see it bad enough to sync the team Fitzy I don't think I do I think I'm overweight on G Wilson this year so that would that would not be a good one for me either yeah I think it might be too all right d what's your next Bowl prediction oh well we've all speak Jaleel McLaughlin is an RB2 speaking of guys we've loved the entire off season I I have not shut up about this guy since freaking January uh so you're giving me an Avenue where I can give a whole prediction about somebody it's Jal mofin baby he's going to be an rb2 in fantasy this year and I've pushed back about his offseason rankings his upside everything for the entire year I'm not going to stop now he was the king of efficiency last year I mean we're talking about a player that was legit top 15 in basically every tackle breaking metric that you could pull up he's getting has gotten the role that we want in this offense we want the receiving back and a Shawn pton offense we've talked about this the entire off season Shawn Payton's offense of the last nine years with him coordinating an offense has never finished outside the top five actually fourth in targets of the running back position he's gotten Red Zone usage he's gotten early down usage in the preseason been working in with Javonte Williams I don't know what anybody needs to to see at of Jalil at this point all of the the offseason Buzz has been spectacular for him Payton's talking about he's the first guy in the building last one out and for everybody out there because I know you're going to talk you're going to put it in the comments and tell me immediately that jalo mcglen is too small to pay off he's too small to get that typee of volume I want you to use that same energy when you press the button on Devon aan and drafts because they're like the same size actually Julia mcgoffin has a higher BMI than Anan so just as long as we're keeping that same energy and keep it at 100 here if you're going to fade McGlothlin who's free in drafts and going to crush this year I want you to use that same energy on aan Loflin is definitely free in drafts particularly in like home leagues I I was actually attending a live draft last night that I was not participating in there was a lot of very casual um kind of beginner players as Fitz would call them squares in that league and uh they decided that I couldn't participate because I was too much of a ringer doing this for my job U but it was at a friend's place so I still showed up to the live draft had some fun on Labor Day but I the the rule was everybody was allowed to get one piece of advice from me throughout the draft and they could use me for kind of one round pick for everybody and in the last round I texted one of my friends I was like I don't know who you're about to take here take jul mclin like he's still available in round 17 like there just please take him there's no business you know he has no is still being available so I was uh 17 I know it was only a 10 Team league but like yes around 17 and I was like dude please take he can't go undrafted um so uh I I thought about you D bro when I made that recommendation and I actually told him I said I have a cooworker who thinks he's a top 24 running back this year so um I was right there with you uh giving that advice Fitz what are you doing with mlin this year oh drafting him in a lot of leagues and pretty much the only time I don't come out of a draft with Jalil mlin is if I've already drafted javante Williams earlier like I was I was going to bring that up Fitz because I know you were very high on javante and I was wondering if that skewed how you like mlin I think it's going to be a two-man backfield and the Broncos had a league High 153 running back targets last year only one other team was over 131 so like targets Galore I think the stat that JJ zachar and our our buddy over at late round uh quarterback sorry I know that's is that his site now whatever JJ's an awesome guy and he pointed out that I think since 2011 the 20 highest of the 20 highest running back Target shares in the NFL eight of them had been Shawn pton offenses like his backs always catch a ton of passes oh and by the way Bo Knicks was a total checkdown machine throughout his college career so like there are going to be targets Galore and by the way uh Julia mlin is the all-time leading NCAA rusher he over 8,000 rushing yards in his career granted he did get a fifth year due to covid I think he played his first two at Notre Dame and then transferred to Youngstown State but like this guy is good like he graded out really well last year uh super efficient and he's going to catch a lot of passes as is javante this year for Denver like I want a piece of the Denver backfield DB are you shying away from javante at all because you like jul so much or are you also investing in both uh so I will say that I I've jump I've bumped up javante a ton in my ranks as we've kind of gone through the off season like I had Jalil above javante uh at the earlier part of the off season but now with the Positive Buzz about javante as well I mean Payton said he's in Camp he's looking great he's shed some weight from last year looking like a different player uh right now I have javante at rb25 and I have Julio mlof and an rb33 um so really I mean both these guys I'm looking at as rb3 because of the the complexion of the Denver Broncos offense if you were to tell me that not only does we know a lot of the redone offense is going to run through the back field but if this offense surprises I don't want to give a 12 Bowl prediction here but if this offense does surprise I have them both ranked as RB 3s if this offense surprises if both of them finish inside of the top 24 running backs I really would not be surprised do bro javante obviously has an injury history if and we certainly don't want him to get hurt if he does go down would you be even more aggressive ranking Jal or do you think would yep okay yeah so would you have much CL I would I would and not to cut you off worm I would in the sense that I think ese would take over the early down Roll But we would have a path for jalile to eat into that because I think that if you're looking just from a a sheer Talent uh perspective I think javante is a better Runner and a better player than AUD EST so I think that he could eat into the early down workload even more than what we probably see for javante anybody who knows me knows there's basically nothing in the world I love more than going to baseball games all summer long in fact just this last weekend I went to all three games I was talking about it for so long on these shows that I was going to be going to these games I finally went to all three of the Orioles games here in Denver the O's did take the series two games to one it was super fun by the way shouts again I already thanked it but shouts again to Danny kulum Orioles relief pitcher for hooking me up with h batting practice field passes it was an awesome experience also shouts to Jared a listener to the show who hooked me up with tickets on one of the nights as well down close to the uh Orioles Dugout so that was a really cool experience as well I always love meeting fans especially fans who are also Orioles fans like myself um but for the games that I had to get my own tickets I used game time with killer last minute deals Allin prices views from your seat and their lowest price guarantee game time takes the guesswork out of buying MLB tickets I'll be planning ahead for the o or i was did plan ahead for the O Series of course but one of my favorite things about game time is the last minute deals you can save up to 60% off buying last minute for Not Just Sports but concerts comedy theater and more I went to a concert at Red Rocks earlier this summer as well and you can be sure I checked out game time deals for that at the last second as we decided to go we're not very good about planning head for the concerts as much as I am with the uh baseball games two other features that I love for how much it takes the frustration out of tiet buying our game time seat views showing your view from the seat before you buy and Allin pricing so I know the total up front with no hidden fees game time is simple to use but more importantly the app gives me all the information I need to make an easy ticket purchase so this summer take the guesswork out of buying MLB tickets with Game Time download the game time app create an account and use code fantasy pros for $20 off your first purchase terms apply again create an account and redeem code fan t a s y p r oos for $20 off download game time today last minute tickets lowest price guaranteed all right dbo give me your number two bll prediction Brian Robinson Jr. is an RB1 well again investing in offenses that we love this year Brian Robinson Jr will be this year's Alfred Morris he will be an rb1 in fantasy and I know everybody's so concerned about the offensive line everybody's so concerned about this offense in general I'm not I think he's going to get the goal line roll and what are we seeing out of a cliff kingsberry offense from 2019 to 2021 they were eighth in Red Zone rushing rate we also remember and and again I know this has been a few years boys but in 2021 when James Connor was second in the NFL and rushing attempts inside the five the previous year Kenyan Drake was third in the NFL and rushing attempts inside the five we know that the commanders are going to run a ton of plays they're going to be probably one of the fastest Pac offenses in the NFL we talked about this earlier volume is King and that's going to lead volume to the running game and you have the added efficiency boost of Daniels with his leg and opening up rpos and space for Brian Robinson Jr on top of it we don't give Brian Robinson Jr enough credit for how good he was last year I don't think many people understand he was a top 24 running back in fantasy points per game last year as well as top 20 and most tackle breaking metrics yeah I love the commanders this year and I love Brian Robinson Jr I have also loved the commanders this year um I've been very excited about Terry McClaren I've been very excited about Brian Robinson Fitz where did you end up ranking Robinson for the season I think like wide re or running back 25 and um I've come around on him I I kind of thought early in his career that he was just a ham and Egger but like he is better than that and I like him for a lot of the same reasons Debo likes him it's going to be a fast-paced offense and we know that it's generally a pretty good thing for running backs who have dangerous running quarterbacks that they're playing with because it sort of spikes their efficiency and we've seen a number of cases where this has happened and I think this could happen with Brian Robinson maybe he is indeed the uh 2024 version of 2012 Alfred Morris I couldn't get him inside the top 20 I did end up having Robinson Arby 21 so so pretty close and well inside that rb2 range I wanted to be aggressive on him um like I said same with Terry McClaren those are really the two guys in addition to Daniels that I'm I'm really banking on in this offense and I just think we're pretty much under the entire draft season like I was so comfortable I wanted to get one good running back early and then I was so comfortable waiting several rounds to take my second because I knew I had a really good chance of getting Robinson in pretty much every draft and if you're telling me he can be my rb2 paired with you know one of these Elite guys I'm really excited about that so um I totally agree with you here dbo uh Fitz Rashee Rice is not a top-40 receiver let's go to your number two bold prediction for the season I'm going to go back to being a sour p uh Sour Puss and and having people mad at me so I'm going to say Rashi rice does not finish as a top 40 wide receiver this season um as the the summer has gone on and and people have realized there's a good chance Rashid rice is not going to serve any sort of 2024 suspension for the high-speed hit and run crash he was involved in earlier this year um or at least not during the 2024 season like there's probably a suspension coming at some point but there has been this spike in enthusiasm when people realize that they're probably not going to lose games with Rashid rice um he's now up to wide receiver 25 in ECR I was just in two drafts where he was wide receiver 22 and wide receiver 20 so like he is the price has been rising pretty steadily I'm not saying the enthusiasm is completely unfounded like rice was really good as a rookie 79 catches 938 yards seven touchdowns in the regular season plus that big game against Miami in the playoffs uh in the icy conditions he had 130 yards and a touchdown Patrick Mahomes is his quarterback Andy Reid is his play caller what isn't to like well I think it was largely out of necessity the rice played this big role for the Chiefs last year like they had no one at wide receiver who could get open downfield Justin Watson was their most dangerous downfield threat they had Sky Moore Marquez Valdez scantling cadarius Tony all getting meaningful snaps I mean yikes so the Chiefs adjusted and uh you know like Mahomes threw a lot of little wide receiver screens and and hitches to Rice they threw 69 screen passes to wide receivers in tight ends last year no other team had more than 51 screens to wide receivers and tight ends and uh they had 53 screen passes to wide receivers alone most of them going to Rice easy completions and then rice would do his best Debo Samuel imitation after the catch and hey I mean rice undeniably did really well in that roll he was terrific after the catch average depth of Target though just four points eight yards so now the Chiefs go out and they bring in two wide receivers who have blazing speed and can get open downfield Hollywood Brown and Xavier worthy so these guys are going to do a much better job than Sky Moore and Marquez VES scantling of getting open downfield and you know like they've got Travis Kelce too by the way still you know one of the the best pass catching tight ends of all time so everyone seems blind to the possibility of this reduction and Target volume for Rashid rice over his last 10 games last year playoffs included rice averaged 8.9 targets a game I am confidently betting the under and rice averaging 8.9 targets a game this year it's it's going to be less than that no question about it um like when rice can also throw to Kelce Hollywood Brown Xavier worthy the target share is inevitably going to decrease and and possibly dramatically for Rashid rice so while some people are predicting that rice it's going to be a top 20 or top 25 receiver this year I making the Bold prediction that Rice doesn't finish in the top 40 so my apology to all Rashid rice stakeholders who are undoubtedly cursing me right now I was surprised to see this one fits because I have been among the group that is more enthusiastic about rice as it's become more apparent that the suspension is not going to you know take effect this season um I know Erikson who's obviously not on this episode has been really aggressive about rice since that you know has kind of become more apparent as well uh I get the case that you're making there obviously are more malth to feed I think rice is a good player though and like there is just more of a level of familiarity with Mahomes than he will have with Hollywood or worthy so I'm still interested in rice I mean again it's it's a bull prediction so it's not like you're saying this is like an obviously easy thing um but but Debra I'm curious if you were surprised like me to see Fitz include this on this list I I was surprised to see it but I I know Fitzy is has not been a a big fan of his usage and and not just saying like it's all like you know gimmicky but a lot of design stuff a lot of screens so I mean I I definitely get where Fitz is coming from for me this kind of hinges on two two different things for for rice to should I say I'm not going to say pay off on this prediction but for this prediction to come true and it comes down to I I think you need Hollywood to be on the field and very productive and the touchdowns to go other ways and this is not saying that you know Patrick Mahomes is going to have a bad season but is Travis Kelce does he bounce back and is he just legendary again this year because we saw him take a small step back some of that maybe due to injuries and stuff and as well as extra defensive attention the entirety of the season so does Kelce bounce back is Hollywood able to stay healthy and come back and be like immensely productive and do we get more rushing touchdowns of out of Isaiah Pacho I mean really there's a path for this coming true where even Rashid rice doesn't get suspended and he stays healthy now I'm a Believer and Rashid rice I have him ranked right now as my wide receiver 27 so I'm not in the same camp as Fitzy but we want to draw up okay how does the season play out and how do the predictions and a reasonable Avenue to how they come true there's a lame where this does happen manage your fantasy football lineups and dominate your your Leagues with my playbook from fantasy pros my playbook is a suite of powerful tools to help you make better decisions manage your lineups and win your leagues created by the fantasy pros the number one fantasy sports advice and tools provider in the world this app will let you import your team to get custom Fantasy Football news rankings and Analysis so sync your leagues today at fantasypros.com myplaybook or download the fantasy football my playbook app all right dbra we've got one bold prediction each what is your number one Justin Jefferson earns 200 targets and threatens the single-season receiving yards record bat prediction for the entire 2024 season okay so I'm not going to blow anybody socks off by saying that Justin Jefferson is a really really good player or that he's super talented we all know that but since JJ McCarthy got hurt lost for the entire season and Sam darnold is now the quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings everybody has been pumping the brakes on Justin Jefferson and we've seen him fall in some drafts May maybe towards the back end of the first round and I'm here to tell everybody that the hate needs to stop we need to get on the train and get in the boat with Justin Jefferson because I think that this year he becomes only the fourth wide receiver in NFL history to get over 200 Targets in an NFL season and he threatens to break the single season receiving yardage record and I know that you're all going to talk about okay well Sam darnold's not that good I just need Sam darnold to be just about as good as he was last time we saw him for Carolina in 20122 when we saw him last as a starter he was eighth in yards per attempt KOC is a really good play caller and and I think everybody's also missing the boat on Justin Jefferson last year and we got a microcosm of two different splits here one with ktk cousins and one without with ktk cousins Justin Jefferson was on Pace and I get it was only a four game sample but this I think we're not understanding the type of volume that Jefferson is going to see this year in the four games he got with Kirk he was on Pace for 200 targets 140 receptions and 2300 receiving yards now we go towards the end of the season with Nick Mullen under Center because that's the other out here if Sam darnold sucks we've seen what it looks like when Nick Mullen and that means a lot of YOLO ball and he's not going to give a crap and he's gonna throw it up for Justin Jefferson weeks 15 through 18 last year that four game sample Justin Jefferson was on Pace for 187 targets so not far off of 200 it was on Pace for over 2,000 receiving yards so both sides of this split Justin Jefferson still on Pace for 2,000 receiving yards and knocking on the door of 200 targets so when we talk about quarterback play you have outs here Sam darnold's not good we got Nick Mullen we've seen what that looks like we don't have any other high-end Target share earners in the Vikings offense right now I'm sorry Jordan Addison unless he takes a step forward from what he showed last year is not that guy he was outside the top 45 or 50 wide receivers in basically every single Target drawing efficiency metric out there T.J hackinson when do we see him and then what are we talking about for the rest of this passing attack Jaylen Naylor Aaron Jones that's it there is nothing to stop Justin Jefferson from eating 11 to 12 targets every single game and if we get League average Quarterback play out of whoever the heck is under Center Jefferson is paying off on this prediction this year I've had Jefferson pretty firmly in my wide receiver four spot behind lamb Chase and Hill for most of the you know this draft season and given everything going on with Chase and the hold out not practicing I'm starting to feel like that might be a mistake and maybe was overreacting a bit to the quarterback difference you know in Minnesota with Jefferson um I'm starting to wish I'd maybe taken a bit more Jefferson than I have uh because I think you're right like I think Sam Darnell doesn't need to be the best quarterback in football for Jefferson to be a really really successful fantasy draft pick right he just needs to not be the worst quarterback in football and I think in this offense with Kevin oconnell running things that can be the case where he's just not the worst and therefore that's enough for the best wide receiver in football to look like the best wide receiver in football uh Fitz where did you end up having Jefferson ranked and what do you think about this prediction from Deb I mean right now wide receiver three because I've got Jamar chase behind him because starting to worry Jefferson up the wide receiver too I want to make be transparent about that CD cidd is the only guy that I have above Jefferson right now yeah so I'm I'm like Debra I'm not pumping the breaks on Justin Jefferson I'm taking that turn at 80 miles an hour and part of it is that I'm not scared of Sam darnold as a quarterback and like Sam darnold has supported a couple of really nice seasons for DJ Moore in the past and Kevin oconnell is by far the best play caller that Sam darnold will have ever played for I mean like look at the competition Adam gase and Matt Rule and this is going to be the Best Supporting Cast I think that Sam darnold has ever had so uh let's give Sam darnold a collective Mulligan here in fantasy football and uh believe that he can make this offense go because I I do Fitz take us home with your number one bold prediction for the season Jonathan Taylor rushes for 2,000 yards Jonathan Taylor runs for 2,000 yards and finishes as the RB1 and finishes as the rb1 in fantasy um so Taylor's missed 13 games the last two years with injuries but the injuries were relatively minor a couple of ankle injuries and a uh torn thumb ligament the last time we got a full season out of JT in 2021 he had 1811 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns now Taylor gets to play with Anthony Richardson one of the most dangerous running quarterbacks in the league and we know that running quarterbacks Spike the efficiency of their running backs we saw it with Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards we saw it with Jaylen Herz and my sanders who had a couple of really good years with with uh Herz at quarterback and perhaps the most uh most famous example of all and we referenced it a little while ago Alfred Morris 2012 when Robert Griffin I third took the league by storm fellow rookie Alfred Morris a sixth round draft pick with 467 speed rolled up 1,600 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns Jonathan Taylor is a far far better running back than Gus Edwards my sanders or Alfred Morris uh when when Colts head coach Shane stien calls run pass option plays Defenders are going have to figure out whether Anthony Richardson is actually going to hand Taylor the football when he goes to stick the ball in Taylor's bread basket or is he going to pull it out and throw or run it himself any hesitation by Defenders is going to give Taylor an edge uh less penetration by Defenders bigger rushing lanes and speaking of Shane stien we know he likes to play Fast the Colts had the fastest paced offense in the league last season averaging a league low 24 seconds between offensive snaps the Colts have a good offensive line there's a big season coming down the pike for Jonathan Taylor if he can stay healthy and I'm gonna predict that Jonathan Taylor goes absolutely ham in 2024 has a 2,000 yard rushing season Eat Your Heart Out Chris [Music] Johnson yeah that um I I love the Taylor call I've been all over him I I thought he was the easy rb4 and I thought he was the easy ninth pick in drafts like there was kind of that clear one two three running back and kind of the clear top five at receiver that in some order was the top eight in most of the drafts I participated in to me I felt like it was a top nine not a top eight and I do think Taylor was ninth of that group but like I just I was really excited to get him if I was in the back half of drafts this season you know that 2021 season I I I wonder if feel like historically is maybe a little underrated since 2017 the only running back to have more fantasy points in the season by half PPR scoring than that 2021 Jonathan Taylor was is Christian mcaffry he's done it twice and even last year mcaffrey season was only four points better than Jonathan Taylor's 2021 again in half PPR scoring like it was a great great season and you're right it's largely just been the injuries that have been an issue since then and he's still young enough that he's still like obviously it's not like he's on like the back nine of his career right like he's still a very good running back I would expect in what should be an awesome situation for him so I totally agree with you Fitz I love that you know again I've been getting Taylor a lot because I thought he was even just by a couple of spots kind of undervalued for a lot of this draft season Debo I know that according to our current rankings I don't know if you've changed this you don't have him as rb4 you have Gibbs ahead of him is that still the case and you just have him in the top five it's not like you're fading Taylor no I'm not fading him I I've firmly had Taylor ahead of saquon Barkley and I think when people have been in drafts those are the two names they're kind of parsing between uh a lot of different times I've had Taylor over Barkley the entire off season basically and I will continue to have it that way um so yeah I love this call about Fitzy I mean just this boils down to like over the last few years we talk about the best pure rushing talents in the NFL before the injury I mean that conversation began and pretty much ended with Nick chub and Jonathan Taylor so to tell me that like we get JT fully healthy and this offense for the Colts just takes flight this year I mean we could be looking at a similar season so I don't hate this at all Fitz if you you think that Jonathan tayl is going to run for 2,000 yards and you are a Wisconsin Badger why aren't you drafting him number one overall I probably should be but um why didn't you draft him over Garrett Wilson in this draft FY oh he got sniped in front of me directly above oh that's right yeah bman yeah see I'm sitting here talking smack and I didn't even remember the uh the particulars yeah thank you for reminding me to curse out Bogman next time I see him appreciate that this uh this draft by the way has bit like I've just for whatever reason this year I haven't had many large drafts it's been mostly 12 teams the occasional 10 team I haven't really done a lot of 14 team leagues in bigger and so not only that it's a 14 Team league but against pretty much our whole content team both you know on camera and behind the scenes everybody in this league is really sharp everybody in this league knows all the players that we like um I have found this to be quite a brutal draft of not getting the guys I want and feeling like my team is not very good yeah the the the the two the onew punch of the fact that not only is it the entire content team and everybody knows who everybody else likes it's the fact that it's a 14 team or too so it's like um and and worm you were at the one what the 106 FY was at the the 110 I drew the 112 so like the entirety of this draft it's like okay well if I want to get any guys that I like I'm just gonna have to talk take ADP and just toss it out the window because if not they the players are not going to come back to me just how it is I took Chase in this league it's it's a slow draft so it's been going on for a while now and I was still at the time more optimistic about Chase being back in time for week one and I took him and Erikson took uh Justin Jefferson right after me and I regret that I wish I had gone the other direction it's one of many regrets in in a league like this so it'll it'll be fun we we'll bring it up occasionally on the show throughout this year uh how we're doing in this league because it's gonna be a fun one it's it's us it's Bogman it's Erikson it's Joey P it's Kelly Kirby it's Mike Mayer it's our producers it's our Graphics guy it's Terell it's it's going to be Sam hopp to everybody's in this league so it's going to be a lot of fun um and uh we'll we'll see who comes out on top in that one this season is going to be really fun week one is going to be really fun I'm so excited that we're here for the 2024 season I always say this like by the time we get to September it feels like I've been thinking about the season for so long that when it finally hits it almost is surreal it's like oh yeah like I get to actually watch football like I'm it's not just in my mind in my imagination and I'm just really excited for it so I hope everybody else is really excited too and really excited for the uh you know the podcast this year because I think it's going to be awesome so looking forward to doing more show shows with you boys I appreciate everybody for listening for Debo and Fitz I'm Ryan warmly we'll see you again next time