2024 Fantasy Football Draft Rankings & Tiers | Top 40 Running Backs

Introduction back here on fantasy pros Fantasy Fest 2024 thank you everybody for tuning in with us we are uh Midway through hour three so we've still got we're about halfway through actually I think we're exactly halfway through if my math is right so I appreciate everybody sticking around in the first half of today's stream and uh everybody who plans to stick around for the whole show you are the real heroes here so we appreciate you tuning in uh we are bringing on a guest here Billy musio Billy I think we did a Fantasy Fest segment last year with the same group of the three of us am I am I remembering that correctly do you remember sit down Tuck football I think it was the first time you and I podcast together as well so you know now now we're season vets together let's let's rock and roll we're making it an annual thing which is definitely fun because I had a great time chatting with you last year uh Fitz let's Dive Right In we're talking running back rankings and tiers and I kind of paused the last segment on this because we were talking about Christian mcaffrey who of course is right at the top of these tiers and you know I'm not sure how much this might change with continued kind of inj injury updates in either Direction with CMC as of right now tier one is CMC rb1 bejan Robinson rb2 Bree Hall rb3 so Fitz what Christian McCaffrey is your approach with Christian mcaffrey right now if you had to draft tonight take him 101 and uh we'll see if Billy disagrees I mean based on the players behind Billy on that mural I'm guessing we might not have a lot of disagreement on this one but um yeah I mean I'm not too worried about the the calf strain um apparently he was running and cutting and practice just like even a week ago I think so um I'm not too worried about it and I don't believe in curses I know he has had a lot of work lately but people used to be terrified uh after he missed substantial parts of two straight Seasons uh but now he's given us two pretty healthy season so far um like he's been pretty resilient the last couple of years so I'm I'm not you know panicky over this little minor injury and training camp he's still at the top for you too Billy yeah he's at the top for me this is a kind of a no-brainer pick and I think there's a lot of variable still you know we still have some uncertainty here for the team there's a lot of potential um targets that could be distributed still but I I do really like Chris mcaffry this is a no-brainer pick for me as well I think you could make an argument for CD L to get mixed in there as well just to have some ownership but I I I do think that Christian mcaffrey is one of those guys that you just pull the trigger on if you have the 101 and you lock in yourself some major opportunity share and someone is going to be in one of the best offenses of football with you know a chance to score on any given play so it's it's a no-brainer for me Christian mcaffrey I think the the injury right now they're just uh playing it safe that's just not somebody they want to roll out the season injured on week one they're goingon to want to uh you know keep him fresh going into into the season and they're gonna just you know treat him very delicately with kid gloves all the way until until then I Bijan vs Breece don't want to spend too much time on tier one but before we move off Billy I do want to ask your opinion I brought this up to Fitz in the last segment bejon versus Bree a very kind of popular debate in fantasy Circle this season do you have a preference yourself or I i' I've been saying for me it's it's not even 5149 it's 50 and a half 49 and a half that's how close it is for me do you have a side either way yeah I have a slight lean with Breece Hall I mean but this is a tier that's separated for me by less than than 1.5 fantasy points um you know I got Christian mcaffry pretty far ahead of both these guys and then I have you know Derrik Henry and the next tier they're slightly behind them um so it just breaks down to preference and I like the Bree Hall's involvement in the passing game a little bit more uh less less touch competition uh this is an offense that is also down weapons right now with with injuries and so I think that we're going to see um Bree Hall continue to see you know a major amount of opportunities inside of the passing game um and that's not going to be slowing down I me this is a player last year who saw 95 Targets number one in the league at the position um and I think that we're looking at a similar usage here in 2024 so um I like Hall slightl there you know Tyler LG is is a good back in in Atlanta and I don't think he's just going to disappear um despite the coaching changes and I think that he's going to remain uh in in involved in the offense and as much as we would like to see bejan Robinson get you know 60 to 70% of the workload I just don't think it's gonna happen quickly Fitz last question on this tier by what pick should all three of these guys be gone is it the top three is it the top four is it the top eight what pick at that point these guys should not be on the board anymore if you have to start start three wide receivers every week I think these guys should be gone by about seven overall but if you have to only have to start two wide receivers every week I think these guys should probably go one two three um and should be off the board no later uh by pick five these should guys all three should be gone looks like you agree Billy pets a sharp man that's exactly the number I was gonna say pick pick five to eight depending upon the format so love it pat awesome all right let's get it to tier Tier 2 two here just to quickly read the names it's Jonathan Taylor jir Gibbs saquon Barkley kyen Williams Derrik Henry Travis etn I want to ask about jir Gibbs Jahmyr Gibbs because Fitz we just talked about Jonathan Taylor and Sequon Barkley in the last segment those guys are on either end of Gibbs in the rankings at rb5 so fit starting with you what is your approach with gives us here are you getting him a lot in the early second round is he somebody that you're avoiding that area I know that you have been concerned about David Montgomery in the past yeah I'm not getting him at all and I'll be interested to hear what Billy says about this because uh Billy is such a great ranker like when I have my own line up debates Billy's rankings are uh among the first I'll go to to try to break ties for me so um yeah I mean I I do have Gibbs ranked running back five but I'm a little concerned that his workload is not going to justify a late first round pick um so last year you know we got off to that slow start where David Montgomery was getting more work than the the Gibbs ADV investors wanted to see then montgomry gets hurt and Gibbs goes ballistic but then Montgomery is back in week 10 and from that point on through the rest of the season including the playoffs jir Gibbs averaged 11.3 carries and 2.9 catches a game so a little over 14 touches a game um that's basically the same workload that Devon Anan had yet people are bulking at taking hen at the round two round three turn but seem to have no problem with Gibbs at that round one round two turn and I just I I think there's Maybe less of a gap between those two than is commonly perceived Billy what do you make of Gibbs I I'm in the same boat here uh with with Pat and and I think it's it's not it's more about the ADP than is the player I think that the the player is is fantastic and I think he's got every opportunity to succeed but he's got a lot of touch competition and he's playing with David Montgomery and this is an offense that we saw feed the target distribution through Oman ra St Brown as well as lorta and and yes there's targets available for grab but I I just think that we're going to see more of a dual-headed running back approach it worked last year if it's not broke don't fix it and I think that they're going to continue to lean on both these backs we've also seen Gibbs already start to kind of get beat up at times we're already seen it now in the preseason um and it's not somebody they're going to you know continue to just you know give 200 plus touches to and I think that uh he's going to make his money in the passing game um and I do think that though he's probably the third option at best on any given week maybe fourth at time from time and and at the cost at ADP currently I'm I'm choosing other options now if you're you know a volume drafter and you're playing in multiple leagues you have to mix in some exposure but um if I'm in a home league and I got one or two or three drafts I'm I'm probably passing on them letting somebody else take it and I'll gladly take a running back at a at a cheaper cost much later in the draft who has more upside possibly or just as much Derrick Henry Billy I want to ask before we get out of this tier about Derk Henry um he's somebody that I feel like I'm just hyping up more and more every single show like at I sat down to do my rankings like I I'm just like I want to have him in my top five I just I just want to be above consensus on him he's currently rb8 I'm just expecting him to score like 15 touchdowns if he stays healthy which is not a guarantee he is a 30-year old running back but I just I'm expecting a really big season from Derrick Henry so where what are you doing with Henry and drafts this year I have met RB before and I have him oh yes thank you I love hearing that I have him actually closer to beon than people would probably like and I think there's a real argument to be made to take him ahead of beon love to hear that this season so I understand the the trepidation I mean he's 30 years old but he's still performing I mean last year he averaged 4.2 yards per carry on 12 touchdowns now he's in an RPO you know run-friendly system where Gus Edwards averaged over five yards per carry throughout his career and I mean let's face it Derrick Henry's a far superior back than Gus Edwards and um this is this is I think some magic waiting to happen um Henry last year in in a a less of an offense had 16 runs over 15 yards what we call you know Breakaway run rate over at player profiler and um that he still averaged over seven defenders in the Box still managed to have you know almost 400 rushing yards second most in the league and you know like I said earlier 12 touchdowns which is the sixth most in the league and I'm expecting this box to get lighter in this RPO system and I'm expecting Henry to um take it full take take full advantage of the defenses here with keeping teams honest and I honestly think that Derrick Henry should be an early round two pick if not late round one pick given given his new current scheme and his abilities so I'm all in on Derrick Henry this year I love that you agree with me that makes me feel so much better about my my stance on Henry I've shared this stat on the show before but for those who since it's kind of you know the big Fantasy Fest if you're listening for the first time this offseason to Fantasy I want to share this that again Lamar Jackson last year inside the 20 had the fifth most fantasy points of any quarterback inside the 10 he had the fifth most fantasy points of any quarterback inside the five he had the 25th most fantasy points any quarterback when they get inside the five they are handing it off and there's nobody better to hand it off to than Derrick Henry again if he is healthy I think he's scoring 15 touchdowns not a guarantee you know he a running back whatever if he's healthy there's no Way's he's under a do a dozen touchdowns like yeah I mean Gus Edwards had 13 touchdowns in this offense last season and I mean Henry is bigger better faster stronger this is the guy that's just they're just gonna hand it off every single time to him it's it's we are not gonna have to worry about somebody like you know Josh Allen or Jaylen Herz who's going to you know sneak it in at the one or two yard line they take care of Lamar and they don't want him getting be up it's a perfect scenario because the threat of Lamar's speed is enough that he kind of hesitates the defense just enough to open up the hole but he's not actually Gonna Keep the ball so yeah I super super love that um let's go to Tier 3 tier three and a player that you really love talking about Fitz and that's Devon De’Von Achane Anan we answered a quick keeper question about him in the last segment he's ranked rb1 here right now and again I kind of allude to this but like if you get it right with Anan you're winning your league like that's what the upside is yeah so I've got him ranked uh RB s right now I mean I've got him ranked ahead of Kiren Williams which is probably a minority opinion among rankers but I think what we saw is last year is a pretty good indication of what hn is going to be for the entirety of his career like not only does he have this game-breaking speed like track speed he was on the track team at Texas A&M but I think the secret sauce with aan is his contact balance like he is so hard to like for smaller bag he just bounces off of arm tackles and and sometimes you will see a Defender hit him squarely and it's almost like he is inside a pinball machine where he uh like almost ricochets off in a different direction faster than he was going before he was hit like he is a really tough dude to bring down catches passes and I like we are just scratching the surface I think of what he could do in Mike McDaniel's offense I'm really excited about him Billy are you trying to be aggressive in how you rank and draft hn this year or are you wary of the size and the potential injury stuff and the fact that it has been kind of a small sample size of this Elite explosive Runner this is one of the hardest players to rank this year in 2024 just because talent-wise he has the ability to be the rb1 in fantasy but from a team standpoint and opportunity standpoint I have a little trepidation and I'm a little concerned about the usage and the size of holding up to uh a a massive amount of increase but um you have to keep in mind they still have Raheem moard here they drafted Jaylen Wright um and and that you know I don't think that they're gonna hand anybody the ball over 200 plus times and I think that this is going to be distributed amongst all the backs and so I've kind of been throwing you know water on the fire here with Devon hen and I think that you know he's superb talent I mean this is a guy that averaged 7.8 yards for carry but in my opinion it's unsustainable here inside the NFL especially given his size and I think even you increase his workload statistically you have to you know bring that number down um and when you work out the magic and the math um the math just doesn't equate to where he's being drafted in drafts unless he maintains that efficiency on an increased workload which I think is is going to be hard to do um I do expect him to see an increase uh usage in the passing game I think that he'll kind of take over that spot pretty easily um and and you know we're seeing you know definitely some opportunities there for him but um I do have a little hesitation with him as a full-time Runner and and not from like I said not from a uh a talent standpoint but more about opportunity and how much he's actually going to see the ball um you know we had Raheem moer in a career year last year and he's not going away anytime soon either and so I I just have a little bit of hesitation when I when I'm pulling the trigger on him every time but it's a guy that you have to own inside of drafts and and he's the guy that could absolutely beat you if you don't have some shares Fitz another name Kenneth Walker in this tier the last name in this tier is Kenneth Walker somebody who you know we love the talent of and there know some managers were kind of scared off with the Zack shbnet Edition in Seattle by all accounts like from what we saw last year but especially so far from what we've heard that training camp it really does sound like Walker is like very much solidifying himself as the guy in this backfield I'm really excited about Walker this year I think rb16 is like a bit too low I I haven't totally sat down and said who who definitively needs to be behind him but it feels like he should be closer to rb1 territory given the talent given the potential usage and given the potential upgrade you know an offensive coordinator and what we just could see out of this offense in general this year what do you think about Walker yeah no running back has forced more Miss tackles than Kenneth Walker since he came into the league two years ago um like that speaks volumes about his talent and I think maybe sometimes people forget that when he came into the league he was considered almost the equal of Bree Hall as a prospect uh he'd had this great final season in Michigan State where he ran for 1600 yards scored 19 touchdowns maybe the only knock on him coming out of college that was that he hadn't shown much as a pass catcher but that was probably more about the Spartans offense than it was about Walker himself um I I get the hesitation because of the presence of Zack shanet because shanet was a second round pick but in games they played together last year Walker averaged 15.7 touches a game shanet 7.4 touches a game so Seattle's kind of made its choice they do have a new play caller now and I I know maybe the balance could shift a little bit I've also heard people worri that Seattle might throw more with Ryan grub as the offensive coordinator although Seattle already had the fifth highest pass rate in the League last year so I don't know how much more they could throw than they did last year um I I just think this is a really talented guy who best seasons are still ahead of him and this is a guy who still has averaged uh 80 yards from scrimmage game over his first two seasons with nine touchdowns in each of those Seasons so he's already given us some pretty good years and I I think there's still meat on the bone Billy I Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Kenneth Walker wanted to ask you with Walker so he's ranked rb1 16 right now two of the names that you highlighted that you wanted to bring up are Joe Mixon at rb15 and Alvin chimra who's at the top of tier four at RB 17 so kind of of these three guys who are back to back to back in the expert consensus rankings Joe Mixon Kenneth Walker Alvin chra how are you parsing between those three yeah I have a a pretty big tier break between Joe Mixon and these guys I got chimra at rb14 Joe Mixon rb9 and then I have um Kenneth Walker here at RB 15 so I do have these two closer but mixing to me just in a in a much better situation you know gets a an offensive line upgrade in my opinion you the Texans were pretty plagued in by injury last year at at the the the line but I do think they have the potential to be elite if they're fully healthy this year I mean tunel is one of the the best you know top left tackles in the league and um you have you know Mason and Howard who are also reliable on the right side so uh this this is a team that you know we know is going to be a Powerhouse as well you know Joe Mixon here is is a back that can do it all um he's a guy that's going to get catches he's a guy that's going to run and and uh you know there's a lot of a lot of targets to be distributed this offense this is actually the hardest offense to project in my opinion of football right now is the Houston Texans and how they're going to distribute all these touches but uh I do think that mixon's in a pretty safe spot to be uh in in a in a in an rb1 conversation I mean last year 6.7 defenders in the Box um you know and and I think that he was inefficient last year and I think we're going to see this efficiencies increase here in 2024 um talking about Walker you know I think he's probably in line with where his ADP is going at right now and I agree with Pat I think that it's pretty clear that he's the lead back over Zack shanet and Zack shanet is the change of pace guy and I do think that the offensive cordinator positions Ryan greb I think the passing um mix I should say is going to help the Run game and it's gonna you know just open up the box a little bit more uh so the next name that you had Rhamondre Stevenson kind of wanted to talk about uh Billy is RA Andre Stevenson and um I'll give you a break because I just asked you about three players in a row so Fitz before we get to Billy's opinion what do you think of R Andre Stevenson I I haven't been getting a lot of him lately I'm a little worried about that offensive line which could be one of the worst in the league and I'm worried that the Patriots aren't going to put a lot of points on the board this year I like the player I mean I I am always a sucker for the dancing Rhino types who uh the big guys who can bowl you over and have really quick so I love the type and I mean I have been overweight on rre in drafts the last couple of years but this year I've been a little more cautious all right Billy now that you've had a chance to catch your breath what do you think about ra Andre yeah I just like he has a breaks down necessity I mean this is a guy that is going to be involved in the passing game going to be involved in the ground I think to Pat's point they are going to be bad I think that it's I think the line's going to be bad and it's not going to help him on the ground but they're going to have to use him in the passing game um and this is a this is a guy that can catch 50 plus balls I think and uh you know you look at the receiving core it's questionable at best you look at the tight end you know core and and outside of Hunter Henry it gets shaky as well and so I I think that this is somebody that's going to be on the field a lot I mean we're probably talking about snapshare in the you know 80% range potentially 75% range um and when they get down in the Red Zone he's probably going to be the go-to guy and uh I think that uh just at a pure necessity in in like math I think he's going to have to perform um based upon the volume we're going to see he may not be that efficient but this is this is kind of like a um going back to last year looking at Rashad white and we saw how inefficient he was but at of necessity they had to use him and I think we're looking at a similar usage here in 2024 for rander Stevenson to to Billy's Point Ezekiel Elliott as people may recall was PPR gold when he was uh forced to play a lot for the Patriots last year and maybe we see the same thing with ra Andre I want to take a quick second to tell everybody about draft Intel the secret weapon you need to dominate your league you can get it for free by syncing your league today at fantasypros.com Intel it provides a deep dive into your league mates drafting history showing their patterns Tendencies draft strategies and more want to know who always drafts rookies too early or reaches for Homer picks draft Intel will tell you best of all if you're a premium member you can even mock draft against your League's Intel make draft Intel your secret weapon and begin dominating your league today at fantasypros.com inel all right guys let's wrap up by Tier 6 skipping ahead to tier six there's a couple names here that you highlighted Jaleel McLaughlin fits we're going to start with Julio mlin he's down at RB 49 in ECR and we talked a bit about javante in the last segment it's a really interesting backfield to examine because if Shawn pman does have Shawn pyton does have a favorite in this backfield that player will be a value in fantasy drafts this summer like just based on where these guys are going if there is a kind of a clear back in here and even if it's not a clear back the way he might use jul mlin we have D br in the waiting room to come on next segment I'm sure he would love to talk about glofin too given his love for him um but I say all that to say that this is something that could end up being a pretty nice value especially with as cheaply as he's going yeah de bro is back there like a caged animal uh not being able to wax poetic about julan mlin like not being on this segment um so I'll I guess I'll have to pinch hit for Debro in that regard um if I don't get javante Williams in my drafts like I want to come out of it with Julia mlin because all those running back targets and there going to be a ton of them you know 153 RB targets for the Broncos last year a long history of Shawn pton uh offenses peppering the running backs with targets when it was Drew Brees running the show in New Orleans um and B Knicks has been a screen and checkdown machine throughout his college career jalil's gonna get in on that and they like him a lot and Shawn pton has consistently talked mlin up uh not only as a player but like as far as his work ethic and being a guy who's at the facility early and always looking to get better and this guy is explosive like I think he's GNA be the number two I think he's gonna get in on this target Bonanza and he had 31 catches last year maybe he could get 50 50 plus this year Billy what are you doing with this backfield overall I'm nodding in agreement with Pat right now this is this is a guy that if given more opportunity he's he could potentially be inide the top 37 38 the position I have met rb42 right now slightly ahead of consensus but me he was rb9 and fantasy points per opportunity the problem is he just didn't see a lot of opportunity and so I think we are going to see him get you know a crack at it more here in 2024 you know the pat point you know they've been talking him up I mean first at practice last to leave put in the effort you know and you mentioned here at the top of the segment that if we can find a back that Sean Payton likes he's gonna pay off dividends and fantasy and right now this seems to be that the arrow is pointing to Jal mlin um you know this is a guy that is is you know also electric on the ground he was you know RB uh 13 and Breakaway run rate um he was rb6 and Juke rate you know true yards per carry rb4 at 5.1 um this is this is a guy I'm attacking pretty aggressively inside of draft rooms and his adp's been rising as of late um but it it was very nice when he was going you know outside the top 50 of position um but he's one of my most owned backs especially when I'm building zero RB teams this just in from Debo uh Jalil is King is what he say so uh we know we know how he feels um yeah this whole tier I'm not going to read through every name because it's a very large tier but there's a lot of rookies that I really like here there's a lot of sleepers I really like here Ray Davis is in this tier Blake corm is in this tier Rico Dow obviously not a rookie but he's in this tier Jill mlin of course JK Dobbins I love at Cost this year um there's just a lot of really interesting names kind of in this range so this is a range where I want to be drafting running backs um Fitz you did highlight Blake Corum korm as somebody that you wanted to touch on we talked a little bit about Kiren Williams earlier corm obviously the other side of that coin in the Rams backfield I like korm quite a bit as well he's RB 41 both in rankings and ADP is he somebody you're trying to be aggressive with yes he is the lottery ticket you want in your pocket because if he does payoff the payoff could be enormous um we've seen Shawn pton running backs have these monstrous seasons and no one expected Kiren Williams to do what he did last year but Kyon Alo missed time he is a a small guy I know they're listing him now at 2 two pounds I I really doubt he's north of 200 pounds um they drafted Blake corm as early as they did for a reason I I don't think they want to give Kiren Williams 21 touches a game the way they did last year so km's maybe going to have a fantasy relevant role independent of kirn's Health but if anything happened to Kiren I mean you're going to see a bonanza similar to what we saw with Kiren last year with korm Billy is Corum one of the guys that you're targeting in this range I mean if you're looking at like a true uh handcuff maybe it's more Tyler alir but does corm kind of fall under that category for you built if you've seen him I mean he's just massive and I think that you know they're going to start using him early and often inside of this this rushing attack it's it was pretty clear that Kiron wasn't able to hold up to the the workload that that he was given last year he he started breaking down um and he was was very you know efficient and and and and was able to to do a lot with those touches but I don't think they're going to give him that type of workload here again in 2024 so Blake korm is definitely a handcuff I'm I'm attacking in drafts let's jump into a couple of Q&A audience questions here before we wrap up and one of the questions that we did get was Jonathan Brooks Blake korm and Trey Benson how would you rank them in a dynasty win now mode Fitz who are you taking if you're win now in Dynasty with those three I have to go with Brooks first I mean Brooks is um if it all hits with Brooks like he is probably the most talented back in this class but I do think corm is the best Pure Runner in this class and uh the the way Benson has had a little bit of trouble getting Traction in Cardinals training camp I think I've now got uh korm ahead of Benson what do you think Billy yeah I agree I think Brooks is has the most upside especially um given the other running backs around him the injury has me a little concerned to start the season but this is the kind of guy that um you know could have a monster second half the season and and really help you win down the playoffs so I I would I agree with Pat here I'm going to take Brooks um and then I I agree I have uh I have Quorum ahead of of Benson as well it is close but I think that that Quorum get gets a slight nod for me let's quickly uh answer two more audience questions here then we'll wrap up Jennifer Boland asks iuk or Evans this year and obviously there's a degree of uncertainty still with iuk what do you think Billy well you know you know that iuk is signing with the the Steelers and then he's in ass sign with the Niners and then he's going ass sign with the Steelers and and it's never ending Saga um you know so I think that get regardless situation I think i' take auk on both teams over Evans this year um you know I think that if he's in the ners we're gonna see you know a lower Target distribution again with probably in that 120 target range which is you know not great for a wide receiver one but he's going to be efficient with those targets where if he goes to Pittsburgh I think he sees an increase in targets but a decrease efficiency so it's kind of a wash for me and I think I'd still rank him around the same Fitz auker Evans I've got Evans ranked higher you know 10,00 yard season wash rinse repeats and um like iuk only had what 106 targets last year I I don't see a way for him you know barring some major injury to one of the other components of that offense for him to significantly bump that Target total and like he was maxed out on efficiency last year as far as yards per catch yards per Target yards per route run it's going to be hard for him to top that uh those numbers from last year so I I think Evans is a little little bit safer I'm Closing actually going to skip this last question here and we're going to talk about the next segment when we're talking about wide receivers anyway uh we are going to be back here in just a minute with the road to talks and wide receiv receiv rankings and teers Billy thank you so much for coming on like I said I hope we can make this an annual uh segment here with the three of us uh talking whatever it is that we decided to talk about but I appreciate you making the time uh during a busy season yeah thanks for having me on gentlemen always appreciate the invite and love talking football with you