Bounce-Back Running Backs | Target of Fade? (2024 Fantasy Football)

Introduction I am Ryan warmly here stepping in for Joey P thank you so much for the kind uh birthday wishes from Joe uh I don't appreciate Eric and throwing me under the bus letting everybody know that I am 32 I feel very washed up now I was telling my friends over the weekend that you know when you're in you're like 30 and 31 it's like okay I'm like barely in my 30s now it's like I'm just in my 30s so Fitz let me start this off by apologizing for all of the old jokes I've made for you over the years very nice yeah at 32 you have pretty much hit the age Cliff uh Worm but it's great to be able to do a show with you on your birthday and great to do my first fantasy Pro show with Terell yes yes Terrell we we had our first show last week and we talked about how excited we were to do the the Fest here as well I didn't realize it was your guys' first two shows together of course we have as everybody can see Pat fitzmorris Terrell firm in here um you know Terrell very new to the company here so we wanted to get you on the Fest and uh get you started off here on the right foot with our big uh five hour live stream we we only gave you one segment I think so it's not too overwhelming I hope yeah one segment I already messed up by not sending in my players with enough time so uh sorry to the production team in the back that you got to deal with me with no Graphics but you know we're good we're we're going to have a great time it's going to be great we're we're a team of Pros here that's why they call us the fantasy pros so somehow we'll figure out a way to make do here uh but no thank you again to Joe and to everybody at fantasy pros for the birthday wishes this is my of the three fantasy fests I've been involved in this is the second one that has been on my birthday so you know you know what it's just that time of year I should get used year out going forward uh we only we've only got 30 minutes with the three of us here together schedule every single one for worm's birthday for the rest of time what are we doing F this year it's whatever August 19th that's what we're yeah hijack his birthday yes exactly uh I I'm hoping we don't do that uh let's jump in uh you guys just heard the bounceback wide receiver segment with Joe Erikson and Jamie Eisenberg thank you to Jamie for joining for that and for all the guests who have been on in the first hours already we are talking bounce back running backs as a quick reminder for everyone all of our 2024 consensus rankings and tiers can be found a fantasypros.com rankings we did get names from Fitz so we're gonna start off with what he provided here and Fitz before we jump in because I think people will will kind of notice that some of the names that you provided are guys that are going relatively early in drafts there's some first round names there's some second round names there's guys that are being drafted somewhat aggressively so when you sat down to kind of come up with your five running backs how did you define bounceback and was there a certain threshold that they needed to be at last year that you thought made them eligible for this list basically just players we think are going to do better this year than last year and in some cases substantially better and I I think that's the case with all of the guys on this list I think that's fair and let's just start Bijan Robinson off with the number one who's one of my favorite running backs this year bejan Robinson um he's rb2 uh you know among the position his ADP is rb3 so it's rb2 in the the rankings ADP rb3 so again this is a first round player fits depending on how uh risk adverse you are with Christian mcaffry this is might be one of the first two running backs off the board in your leagues what def finds him as a bounceback player for you yeah uh he's got a bounce back from Arthur Smith wor it does it does feel strange to have this abundantly talented running back uh listed as a bounceback player but last year he was rb9 and a half Point PPR scoring RB 17 in fantasy points per game bejon had 41% of the Falcons rushing attempts last year and even if you filter out the quarterback runs he was still under 50% 47.2% of Atlanta's rushing attempts by non- quarterbacks which uh seems kind of suboptimal to have a guy with this level of talent carrying the ball that infrequently and uh Arthur Smith is out Zack Robinson is in as the Falcons new offensive coordinator and um you know we can't guarantee completely optimal play calling but I think it will be more optimal than Arthur Smith's call uh play calling which sometimes is just too much of the vanity play calling and being cute and running reverses to to Scotty Miller and cadero hodj like just give beon the darn ball Fitz I know that Bree Hall is not on this list that we're going to be talking about but we're not allowed legally to talk about Bean Robinson without comparing him to Bree Hall it's been one of the more fun debates of the fantasy offseason so as it stands right now on August 19th do you have a preference between Bree and bejon yeah slight preference for bean um one has had major knee surgery in the last two years and one hasn't that's very reasonable uh Terrell same question here uh do you have a preference between bejan and Bree just because that does seem to be one of the kind of skeleton keys to the season in the first round at least not really actually I think they're kind of neck and neck for me I I've actually kind of starting to talk myself more into bejan I think I was early Bree but now I'm switching over to beon and it's really a lot of look at where he was lining up like he wasn't just in the backfield he was lining up in the slot he was uh first in terms of running backs uh routes lined up in the slot in the NFL and he was second in terms of outride the only person that was ahead of him was Rashad white and yet all of that and there's a numerous amount of wide not wide receiver but running backs including Bree Hall Travis etn Jaylen Warren rashan white Christian mcaffrey Alvin chra who had more receptions than him and so I think that now with Kurt C SL Michael pinnick it sounds like we might be getting the Matt Flynn Russell Wilson uh Fiasco that happened way back with the Seahawks going on in Atlanta but either way regardless of his cousins regardless of his pinnick I think that both of those two guys are way more talented than Desmond Ritter and whatever the Falcons were doing at quarterback last year where they can actually get him the ball and get him those receptions and that's going to be the thing that pushes him over the top he's a great Runner and that's just going to make him a rb1 off grip but to be one of the top one of the very best that receptions loow increasing is going to really do it for him if everything hits for bean there's there's nothing that he's not providing you he he can give you touchdowns he can be that goal line back he can give you a ton of receptions he has that skill set and obviously he can be a Workhorse now we'll see if they do that they do like Tyler alir we know the history with this Rams kind of coaching offense is they like to ride one guy we saw it with KY Williams when he was healthy we've seen it with Todd Gurley in the past these guys in the Shawn mcfay tree like to have that Workhorse back so if it is bean I mean like this the sky is the limit like right it's you could throw out any cliche you want about the type of year he could have and I wouldn't say it's too much like there is a very clear world and again you could say this too about Bree or healthy mcaffry or some of these other guys but there is a clear path to you could paint The Narrative of a year from now bejan is the consensus number one pick in every draft like that is a very reasonable outcome that could happen and Fitz the other thing with Bean that I like and Terell started to allude to this is I like that there's Talent on this offense but there's not overwhelming Talent it's not like the 49ers where you have to feed George KD and Christian mcaffrey and Brandon iuk and Deo Samuel I mean it's a lot of names here it's Kyle pittz it's Drake London and it's bejon and that's basically I really like how concentrated it is in this off between those three well okay okay darn mov do like he's not on the same level don't don't don't don't disrespect Darnell Mooney like that either he's competing he's competing eating what what do you think Fitz is is Mooney somebody that you know could kind of eat into the the lineup or is what I'm making is what I'm saying making sense as far as how concentrated this offense could be I mean it does it's uh it should be a more narrow usage tree than it was last year when there were all these Touches for uh Cordo Patterson and Janu Smith or whatever um but Terrell does make a good point with Mooney he did get a lot of guaranteed money and by the way shout out to Terell for making the Matt Flynn reference Matt Flynn with the most lucrative regular season finale I think in the history of the NFL parlaying that into a big contract with Seattle and then uh never actually being the starter when Russell Wilson came along it's a great gig if you can get it honestly um I love it I would love to get paid to be a backup what the highest paid backup amazing yes Jonathan Taylor let's go to another running back that I'm certainly taking the first round I know it's not the case for everybody there are some people out there who don't have Jonathan Taylor who is a person we were talking about as rb4 he is that for me and Fitz I know he's that for you as well Terrell where do you have Jonathan Taylor this year oh I think Jonathan Taylor could finish as one of the top three running backs especially with the deterrent that is down Anthony Richardson like that's really we know what Jonathan Taylor can do he's shown us the talent on the ground we seen Shane sten's offense be able to produce a really really he got Zach Moss another job like at that point you're you got a pretty good offense that he gives Zach Moss another job and people are actually sitting there talking themselves into Zach moss and I think Jonathan Taylor is going to come back into this offense playing with Anthony Richardson and what they're going to be able to do with both of those guys and what they can do on the ground I think it's going to be really really special so uh the only thing is the touchdowns like the touchdowns may be the concern in how much does Anthony Richardson vulture at the goal line but if he continues to get the touchdowns he already gets the usage on what he does on the ground he's going to be big for this offense Fitz obviously you know you've been talking about Jonathan Taylor all off season not just because you are a Wisconsin Badger I mean for me personally like I we're going to be talking about um running back uh tiers in the next segment with Billy muo um so I don't want to dive too much and kind of spoil that conversation but I do think like he's not in tier one for me I think he's closer to tier one than the other guys in tier two like he is my very clear rb4 and I know again others might disagree but for me there is nobody outside of those big three that I'm taking ahead of him at the position yeah for sure and um you know the why is he in this bounceback category because he missed seven games last year and six games the year before but if we think back to that 2021 season uh where he ran 1,800 yards had 2100 yards from scrimmage and had 20 touchdowns and now Terrell does make a good point about maybe the touchdown ceiling is a little capped because we know Anthony Richardson is going to run for his fair share of touchdowns if he stays healthy and I think some people see Anthony Richardson as sort of a deterrent to why they should be interested in Jonathan Taylor but uh to to me it's totally the opposite like I'm excited about Jonathan Taylor because of Anthony Richardson and um War we've we've talked talked about this all the time since you know you're you're from that area but uh thinking back to that Robert Griffin the thir rookie season when uh you know before injuries derailed his career um he was such a lethal rushing threat for Washington back then and that season he played with Alfred Morris who was a sixth round pick who clocked a 4.67 in the 40 yard dash that year at the combine uh and Alfred Morris ran for 1600 yards and 13 touchdowns that year and and RG3 when they did the rpos the the Run pass options that opened things up for Alfred Morris incredibly and Jonathan Taylor is 10 times more talented than Alfred Morris was I mean Alfred Morris decent running back kind of a Hamond Egger uh Jonathan Taylor is a really special running back and man like I can't wait to see what this offense is gonna look like but I think we're going to see like a big spike in efficiency with Jonathan Taylor's number now that I'm you know well into my 30s I have to remember the youths so in case the RG3 is too yeah Deep Well it pretty much the back nine of my 30s at this point um uh so just for those who maybe weren't around for the RG3 Alfred Morris you know experience a more modern version is Lamar and Gus Edwards like Gus Edwards is averaging five yards per carry in his career he is not that type of run and I love Gus he was awesome in Baltimore and you know I really had a good time cheering him on for the last several years but look you have a guy with that kind of threat like Lamar or like RG3 was or like we are pretty certain Anthony Richardson will be this year it just makes it so much easier Terrell I'm really curious kind of your approach to Running Back Time with Terrell running backs with mobile quarterbacks I've asked Fitz this a lot over the years and so like I said I'm curious what you think do you tend to side more along the lines of guys who um you know with the mobile running back they're going to lose out on those touchdowns to the to the rushing quarterbacks or do you tend to more side more on along the lines of you like that extra efficiency from those guys oh they're 100% you know you're going to lose out on those touchdowns and and it's the name of the territory like you can't have a Lamar Jackson in your offense and not think that you're going to miss some attempts you're going to miss some touchdowns but it's what you do with the work that you get and that's why I'm So Into players that are more explosive like very very explosive and they do really big things yards after contact all of that like Jonathan Taylor profiles is one of those backs that hey all right if your rushing attempts go down are we still going to get good big explosive plays out of you because it's going to open up more we're going to have people that's going out there and they're going to crash down on the quarterback and it's going to create a lane for you and you got to be able to hit that lane hard and be able to explode so uh I like running backs even with the mobile quarterback I understand the reason for the downgrade but you just have to look at the talent of the running back if you have the really really talented running back they're going to make do what they get speaking of guys who have mobile quarterbacks that they're sharing a backfield with Saquon Barkley let's go to the next player here saquon Barkley obviously changing teams to the Philadelphia Eagles he's rb6 in ECR rb5 in ADP so Fitz again kind of along those lines similar conversation he's now in a back he with Jaylen Herz obviously with Barkley you also have the massive offensive line upgrade coming from the Giants is that kind of what played into him being on this list for you yeah and uh hopefully he stays healthier but the offensive line upgrade is is massive going from maybe one of the worst offensive lines in the league with the Giants to one of the best uh with the Eagles even despite the Jason Kelce retirement I I think this Eagles offensive line is surely top 10 if not top 10 not top five and where are you ranking sequin like I mentioned he's kind of rb6 in consensus and then being drafted as rb5 is that where you have him as well yeah I have him rb6 I I still don't like him as a first round value but I think early in the second makes sense okay I was gonna ask about that because I think he's going to go in the second round of almost every draft so is he more on that first like kind of the first half for the second round for you not a back end of the second round type of guy yeah and I do see him uh get taken at the tail end of the first round uh quite a bit maybe in uh close to half of the drafts I've done so far but I do think he's better maybe in the first four or five picks of the second round Terell where do you have sequan ranked this year yeah I think saquin is unfortunately and I hate to say it I think that he's right where he's at probably top end of the second round I wouldn't be mad if somebody take him at the back end of the first round because I think that unfortunately the talent's going to be there as a Giants fan he's really really good and he has the best offensive line in football yes they're going to sh up the center position and make sure that works but uh with Jurgens they've been you know everything has been so uh stationary on the offensive line and that's the complete opposite that you could sa for the New York Giants and so I think that saquan is going to get the success that DeAndre Swift had and double it because I think that he's going to be more consistent I think he's going to have more of a use in the passing game and they're going to try to make sure they get him as touch as in the passing game because when he's in open space he makes some beautiful things happen so the only thing that I think will go down is the touchdowns but saquin has so much usage and so much talent where he can get it on the ground he can get it through the air and with the receptions where you're probably not even missing the tou shs and the touchdowns probably make it a special week when it's already a good week Fitz one of the other kind of angles too being paired with a mobile quarterback it's you know not just the maybe added efficiency with the more open running Lanes it's not just the touchdowns it's also the pass catching cuz a lot of times mobile quarterbacks are very willing to and when the pocket's breaking down rather than checking down and kind of racking up those receptions for the pass catching running backs which sequan can be in terms of his skill set they will just take off so are you worried about that in Philadelphia that from a half PPR or P full PPR perspective that saquan might take a hit I am a little worried about that um Jaylen is not really a checkdown guy so I think saquon's pass catching productivity is probably a little capped and and let's be honest we have not seen him be special as a pass catcher like three or four years anyway that's maybe one of the things we were really excited about with him coming into the league that he could maybe be another Marshall Faulk who would give us just this uh phenomenal production both as a runner and as a pass catcher we haven't really seen it in the passing game the last few years but um as a runner I mean like there is a lot of promise for saquon Barkley in 2024 with Jaylen Herz helping to open things up with his Mobility with that improved offensive line to a degree Terrell I kind of just feel like like I see some red flags with saquan and I'm viewing him as more of a second round player I'm just kind of preferring the receivers at the back end of the first round and right at the top of the second round having said that like am I just overthinking it is this like hey he was one of the most dynamic running back prospects to come into the NFL six years ago he's still only 27 which is older for a running back it's not like he's into his 30s yet he's going to a team that has been very successful that should have a really good offensive line like there should be touchdown opportunities of Plenty so even if larger percentage of them are going to his quarterback the overall bucket of touchdowns there should just be more available in Philly than there were in New York like significantly more so am I just overthinking it like could he should he actually be considered the back end of the first round more so than I'm giving him credit for I mean the only concern that I have is injury that's it like I think that the talent is there I think the offense is there I think everything is predicated they paid him the money and is it not like they paid him a little bit amount of money they went and broke the market for them and so I think that this they're going to use them they they're probably going to uh check down a little bit more run design screens behind that big and mobile offensive line that's going to really really open things up for saquan like I think everything is there it's just is he going to play the games like that's the only concern I have and that's probably the only deter that has me away from Trading him because I have been scorned by early running backs going down early on in the season I mean I you name it I had that running back back when he said that he wasn't playing in this year or just came up through camp and got hurt like it doesn't matter so I've been scorned I've been hurt I but did but did you have Levon Bell the year that he chose to sit out oh brutal absolutely BR he won me my leag the year before so I mean it was it's so many different things but that's the really that's it if you tell me that I'm guaranteed to get saquin for the full duration of the Season I'd say he's a top five running back easy okay let's take a quick moment to give everybody a reminder about my playbook once your draft is done manage your fantasy football lineups and dominate your Leagues with my playbook from fantasy pros my playbook is a suite of powerful tools to help you make better decisions manage your lineups and win your leagues created by the fantasy pros the number one fantasy sports advice and tools provider in the world this app will let you import your team to get custom Fantasy Football news rankings and Analysis so sync your leagues today at fantasypros.com myplaybook or download the fantasy F football my playbook app all right we've got a couple more running backs here that Fitz provided to us with his list thank you again Fitz for actually following the prompts and giving us these names yeah yeah yeah I'm glad I said something before you did so it's not as awkward beat me to it uh next running back up is H Josh Jacobs and Fitz I know Josh Jacobs this is one that Debro who will be joining us later on during Fantasy Fest he was on earlier he'll be back again later this is one that he disagrees with so why are you making the case for Jacobs as a bounceback so one thing Debo is uh hesitant on with Josh Jacobs is that his metrics last year some of his Advanced stats were pretty dismal he gained 15 or more yards and only 2.1% of his runs he averaged only 2.29 yards uh after contact per attempt which put him near the bottom of the rankings in that category had a 45.9% success rate on his runs after being at like 57.4% in 2020 and that's the thing I mean Jacobs was terrific in 2022 led the league in rushing 1653 yards um last year obviously wasn't healthy the entire season um but just the overall efficiency was down and maybe part of that was that the Raiders played most of the season with a day three rookie at quarterback so Jacobs was seeing a lot of heavy boxes um I I think those Advanced stats are maybe a little more descriptive than predictive because like if you watch Josh Jacobs he is one of the toughest best inside runners in the league and now he goes to this offense that's looking really good with the improved quarterback play from Jordan love uh last year love really turned it on in the second half of the Season they've got all these good young wide receivers a couple good young tight ends and a pretty solid offensive line so um I I think we're GNA see the efficiency back up this year but the one thing I would caution people about with uh with Josh Jacobs Matt LeFleur has never really been a one running back kind of guy he will not pound his running backs the way Shawn McVey does and um we've seen this with AJ Dylan who I think everyone would agree is a vastly inferior running back to Aaron Jones yet even with Aaron Jones healthy Dylan was getting 10 11 12 carries a game on average um and even going back to when lefl was the Titans offensive coordinator and had a 24-year-old Derrik Henry uh Derrick Henry only got like 50 or 60 more carries That season than Deion Lewis did so um it's not going to be a 300 carry season for Josh Jacobs but I do think we're GNA see the rushing efficiency creep back up after a down year in 2023 Terell Josh Jacobs is rb12 in the expert consensus rankings he's rb12 in ADP is that about the right spot for him no I'm actually out on Josh Jacobs I I once he signed with the Packers it was a de sentence for him in my opin opinion and it's because just like Pat said Matt LEF like free Aaron Jones was a thing around the fantasy Community for a long time they continued to say it it was a big big thing and there was a reason for it 2019 with Matt laflor 17.8 touches per game 2020 17.7 2021 14.9 2022 16 2023 15.6 like that's not enough Josh Jacobs is coming away from a Raider system that gave him the ball every chance they could 20 uh2 in 2019 20.4 18.1 23.1 in 2022 20.8 last season like he's cons consistently got the ball he's worn defenses down and that's where he's kind of done his work at but he had a really really good offensive line and run behind uh over there in Las Vegas not as good here with the Packers I think they're still trying to figure it out and right now they're projected towards the bottom of the league and run blocks so I'm I'm concerned for Josh Jacobs I just think that the system he's coming from is a lot better and I don't know if he's going to mesh with it especially with the hype that it sounds like Marshal Lo is getting in practice let's get to the final running back here that you wanted to talk about Javonte Williams Fitz it's javante Williams ranking in ECR is RB 29 ADP RB 31 so this is a bit lower down than the other names we've been talking about I love this pick by you Fitz he has been one of my you know kind of coming on recently but he's been one of my favorite t Targets in drafts and I really and we've talked about this on the show before I really like guys who are another year removed from that big injury he's young enough that you know it's you know you would think he could bounce back it just takes time when you have as devastating a knee injury as he had um it sounds and seems like through the early couple of weeks of preseason that he's going to you know have a really good hold on this rb1 spot I just I really like the idea of Javon Williams this year and I think we could be in for not just like oh it was a nice bounce back but like a major bounce back from javante yeah everyone was so smitten with javante when he first came into the league and and how powerfully he ran and uh just like the combination of burst and Tackle breaking ability but he was sharing work with Melvin Gordon and then we were excited it looked like Javon was going to get to be the guy and then tears his ACL comes back last year averaged 3.6 yards per carry didn't really show us the same sort of powerful running style the sizzle that we saw from him in his rookie year uh but now he's more than a full year removed from that knee surgery and hopefully we'll see more of what we saw from him when he first broke into the league and what's really appealing to me worm is the pass catching potential with javante because we know in a Shawn pyton offense running backs are going to get their share of targets uh the Broncos led the league last year with 153 running back targets uh javante had 47 receptions I think he could approach like 60 65 this year um just in the preseason game against Green Bay yesterday he had a nice little dump off from Bo Knicks that he turned into a 15 yard gain and had a 14 yard touchdown catch called back because B Knicks had crept over the line of scrimmage so uh we saw it in just the handful of snaps he played in that preseason game like there is a a lot of pass catching upside here for Javon and hopefully we see more out of him as a runner than we saw last year Terrell do you see a lot of upside here with javante also yeah this is actually a player that I've recently flipped on as early as on air I've flipped on javante Williams and it's just because last year I I want to just really scrap last year from the different Broncos record books like I've never seen a coach and I've kind of gotten to the point of now I'm assuming Shawn Payton was taking that offense last year he did not want Russell Wilson there he didn't care he did whatever it was to make him look bad and in a couple of preseason games he is now show me that b Nick is his guy and he's going to give him every single opportunity to succeed whether B knck does anything with it is going to be up to B Knicks but Shawn Payton is going to give him every single opportunity I think that does happen in the past game with short dump offs to javante Williams and just allow a player another year off of injury to make plays if he goes and they're able to nickel and dime this way down the field and they get into a lot of Red Zone chances that they didn't get last year he didn't have the opportunity for touchdowns because they weren't in the red zone now I think that they might actually be able to get to the Red Zone enough where he gets those opportunity for touchdowns even more especially when you have a rookie quarterback you don't want to put him In Harm's Way and have him throw on the goal line we are up against it on time but I Q&A do want to squeeze in some audience questions um that I have not been doing a good job of incorporating into the segment so let's do some rapid fire here guys um from Andrew Kell should I keep Devon hn or Michael Pitman in my keeper League Fitz what do you think hn I'm an hn guy you know that I knew you to say hn that was the G Terrell what do you think about that hn or Pitman um does did he say what round he didn't he just that was I'm going to assume I'm I'm I'm gonna go with I think anan's a a low pick I'm gonna go with Anan but if he if he was in a higher round Pitman a anan's the guy who if you hit on that you win your league so I would say Anan um another one here would you take amanra or JJ full PPR this season so Justin Jefferson or St Brown Terrell start with you in full PPR uh Justin Jefferson I still think that they're going to they're just going to hammer him with targets it's close though yeah I'm really torn like with the QB stuff Fitz what do you think I have had Jefferson just ahead of amanra in my rankings I've I've thought about flipping them on sever I can't bring myself to do it I think Jefferson is QB proof and I don't necessarily think the McCarthy thing damages Jefferson's value at all this season I think you know darnold made DJ Moore go when they were together in Carolina DJ Moore still a big season so I think Jefferson's GNA have a big season too all right sold I'll agree we'll go with Jefferson um House of cheese ask Garrett Wilson or Kiren Williams in a keeper League he does not designate rounds Fitz what do you think I mean for me it's Wilson pretty easily clear yeah yeah okay Terrell same thing yes oh I I've been waiting a year for this Garrett Wilson hype absolutely and I'm I'm like a touch nervous about Kiren just like the Blake Quorum of it all and he was hurt a bit last year I know they do really like him as a player but I'm I'm nervous enough that if you're going to offer me Garrett Wilson instead assuming this this round you know there's the keeper value doesn't come into play I will definitely take him and then the last one here just talking about the running backs is should we be worried about CMC this season uh already has the hamstring injury of course so you know injuries are always going to be a concern for anybody really CMC does have some history with injuries even if it didn't really creep up as much last year Terrell what do you think are you worried about CMC this year enough to to drop him in rankings I think Christian maccaffrey is going to fall off a cliff the injuries the injuries are a lot man he's had a lot of carries in the past two seasons and it's already starting now it's starting small but if it happens and he misses two three four games that's not a lot of games missed but it's still going to hurt in fantasy