Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid (2024)

we're back here for Fantasy Fest 2024 we are joined by Chris Raybon from Action Network uh Raybon we've been talking a lot of positive segments today bounceback players rankings and tiers and I apologize that we're bringing you on for more of the negative discussion over value draft picks to avoid but I appreciate you making the time oh I love the negative discussion this is Puff pie season in full effect everyone's writing up sleepers and all the beat writers are all positive so I think it helps people to kind of hear the other side of and some of the sides of these players because everyone has a range of outcomes and I think we tend to focus on sealing a little bit more and we should and there's a reason to do that in fantasy you're trying you know especially with your mid to late round picks but um I do think there are some guys where the SE the floor is not being priced in correctly dbo are you excited to also come in and bring the hammer down on some of these guys of course I mean you know I'd love to sit here and spread the hate and the shade just as much as I love to spread the love well let's start with one of your players here D bro uh Josh Jacobs with somebody that you've been bringing the hate on really all offseason long part of that is your love for Marshon ly part of that is your hate for Josh Jacobs rb13 in ECR rb1 in ADP why are you avoiding Josh Jacobs I I just worry about Jacobs being a player that this high volume season ruined him we've seen that from running backs in previous seasons and I'm not going to rule it out with Jacobs and everybody wants to I know everybody's automatically going to think like well Marshon Lloyd's dealing with the hamstring issue and AJ Dylan's not good okay does everybody not realize that Josh Jacobs has already been dealing with multiple injuries in Camp he's not right now doesn't mean that he wasn't earlier in Camp and they couldn't crop back up and it's not like Jacobs was an efficient player at all last year like you were talking about a running back was outside the top 35 running backs and Miss tackles Force per attempt and yards under contact per attempt and he wasn't even this good last year and I get like he's going to a better offense that's great but if he can't stay healthy and he can't break tackles what are you betting on it's just touchdowns that's about it like so no I I can't I cannot invest in Josh Jacobs as an rb1 which right now I'm looking at consensus he is the in ECR he is the rb12 No No way so rayon you have Marshon Lloyd listed as one of the names you're avoiding obviously had a much lower cost down at RB 49 is that because you are in on Josh Jacobs or are you kind of avoiding the backfield entirely oh I think voyd and so everyone wants to kind of Target these rookies and a lot of it is based on Talent right because there's another guy I have that's uh I think is overdrafted based on Talent love Lloyd's talent but he he's got behind the eight Bowl in Camp they resigned AJ Dylan and this reminds me a whole lot of a few years ago when they drafted AJ Dylan and everyone was excited and Jamal Williams was the rb2 on that team and everyone was like well you know Jamal Williams is toast forget about him he's he doesn't bring anything to the table that Dylan can't and Dylan essentially red shirted that first year and the from what I'm hearing from laf FL just the way he's talking about Lloyd it kind of sounds like that's going to be the case again um so I just think there are still other rookies maybe not quite as talented but in much better situations that you can take in that range such as uh Ray Davis such as brain Allen uh you know guys who I think have a better shot at seeing volume I still think this is a threers backfield I don't think they resigned AJ Dylan just for him to you know be a healthy scratch on game day or get no carries because he's not like a special teams guy or anything so I think he's gonna be active and I think he's gonna get carries and I don't think you can put Lloyd in pass protection too much either so uh yeah I just think I just think there's better uh Alternatives dbo you're such a fan of Lloyd at least you were you know as a prospect during the draft process are you worried about kind of the Matt leflour of it all and he doesn't like to have kind of that one workhorse running back and there are malth if Fe you know you're mileage may vary on what you expect out of AJ Dylan this year but he is still around um so do that give you some POS you know cause for concern with a guy like Lloyd it doesn't I mean we've seen laflor use multiple backs over multiple years and so I think that he has a role in this offense now health and availability they're concerns I I'm not going to shy away from that so Lloyd does have to get the health right and dealing with hamstring issues out the gate can be problematic I mean that that's fine like I totally understand the risk but I do think he's going to to slip some in drafts and again Raybon talked about being a fan of the talent I think if we're you're drafting off a talent which I want to do I mean yeah Lloyd was my rb1 of this class I love his talent we want to invest in this offense so I still I'm still in on Lloyd but I do think that the injury concerns do need to be brought up here Raybon let's kind of stick with the rookies because another name on your list is Jonathan Brooks he's up at rb32 we'll get to some of the higher ranked guys soon but since we're talking about the rookies anyway I mean you know DB just said Lloyd was his rb1 for most people RB in the class was Jonathan Brooks obviously you can kind of very easily paint a picture of the opportunity in Carolina once he is healthy is the injury effect the reason that you're avoiding him is there something else yeah the injury effect is obviously why I'm avoiding him because I think the thing with talent and and and what people don't get is that the missing all this time in Camp like that's big for the coaches right and if there was no clear alternative in Carolina like if Brooks was going into a backfield with only Raheem Black Shear or something like that it would be completely different but truba hubard played well last year Mel Sanders is making a lot of money a lot more money than he should but he's still there uh you know Black Shear probably makes the roster as a as a you know Return Man third running back so there's no real incentive to rush this guy and it's not like the Panthers are the Green Bay Packers even or a team that's competing for anything in particular I mean this is the team expected to be one of the worst teams in the league I am bullish on them but you know it's not like they have any incentive to rush Brooks back so even when he comes back it's not like you can just pencil him in like let's say you have him missing the first four games and maybe another one or two just because that's kind of the nature of the position um you're you're looking at like 101 game projection but it's not like you're just penciling them in for starter carries for all of those other games like there's going to be a a easing in Period this is not a team that's expected to be in a ton of positive game scripts they have other options to play on passing Downs so I just feel like he's kind of pigeon hold into uh a certain role and you're just relying completely on Talent uh on a bad team with with multiple other options and no guarantees so I I think this just it just might be a guy who you know I think he underperformed his ADP this year and then you buy low heading into next year Debo you know when you think about Brooks obviously like where he's going it's not you're spending a ton but it is like an rb3 territory is that somebody that you're taking in that range or you just looking elsewhere yeah I mean we talked about him earlier on the show and I I'm taking him I I and I and I totally I'm not dismissing any of the concerns that Raybon brought up I just I look at Brooks that they're they're taking the conservative approach and holding him out right now I think that is the right approach instead of like easing like starting him too aggressively so I still look at where he goes and drafts and I'm willing to take take the swing because if you were to tell me he was RB 24 top like a top 24 guy then I would be more apprehensive about it but in the rb3 land we're taking swings on like committee back fields we're taking our shots and picking you know our our favorite flavor of running back that we believe at that point and to me I think that's an appropriate price for a player that if he does come back after that first four weeks and really you're you're drafting him at that point because at the stretch run could he have that 15 177 touch upside not to open the season but that's how much you're drafting him for you're not drafting him as a top 24 guy that's going to have to be inserted in your lineup immediately it's a flex guy or a flyer basically at the rb3 spot where could he be an rb2 down the stretch could he be a guy that is not leaving your starting lineup I think that's still firmly in place or possible for him so I'm still taking the swing rayon do you see uh him as somebody that you would maybe trade for partway through the season and just you're avoiding in drafts but might want to add like as he's getting healthier or you're just kind of avoiding in general I I could see it but it would have to I think it would probably be too obvious at that point and the person trading wouldn't want to trade him with me but the way I see it is this I I feel like we tend to underestimate the fallibility of our own projection so like for example a guy like Nick chub I could get behind a lot more even though I'm below Market on him too I I generally think the market over rates guys that are entering the season h are going to miss games or suspended whatever not but I could get behind chub because we know who chub is and we know who they want chub to be and he's been that whereas Brooks it's like this guy could is a new coaching staff there's new everything like this guy could come in and let's say hub's playing well I mean Brooks could be a guy who's getting like eight carries a game and that's just what his role like we don't have a he could get 17 but why in that case it's like I might as well I I look it up side not just as talent but as how many games of startability can I get so it's like I see other guys in that range whether at running back or other positions that I can get 17 weeks of upside versus maybe maybe eight to 10 if I'm lucky so that's that's kind of how I'm looking at it with Brooks like again love the talent but it I just think he's he's he's entering a little bit of a muddy situation it's not not necessarily a great offense to be to be entering so there's there's different situations maybe he was on different teams a different team in a different spot in a different year I would be more boish but Carolina is just not jumping out at me it's like oh man I gotta invest in their uh hurt running back Debra another running back that you're avoiding is DeAndre Swift rb25 ADP a little bit higher than that RB 21 um one of the first names if not the first name to announc that he was signing in free agency this year so the Bears wanted him they went out and got him apparently um why are you aving him this year I can't draft him as an rb2 I I I think I think it's it's twofold one we saw what the Chicago Bears did with the running back rotation last year and it was a total freaking mess I'm not ruling that out as being like not maybe to that degree but also still a mess this year and I'm just off of DeAndre swi of talent like you take the two monster games that he had at the beginning of the Season away and I don't usually like to do that but if you look I mean that is a large sample size we have have after these two just ridiculous games after that he was the rb25 in fantasy points per game in what we think like with the Eagles arguably a better offense and I'm not saying that Chicago is going to be a bad offense this year but rookie quarterback we're still making projections there and with DeAndre Swift he was outside the top 25 guys in Miss tackles Force per attempt yards after contact per attempt like I'm just not investing like if anything I think DeAndre Swift could be this year's mil Sanders I think per Talent like I think CLE Herbert is a better running back than DeAndre Swift rushing the ball rayon where are you at on Swift this year honestly I think he's ranked about right like when I I thought I was going to be fading him and then when I kind of go through the backs I still feel better about him than some of the other guys after him but I I do take that point the only thing I will say is it's it is a new uh regime again because now you have Shane Waldren coming in at offensive coordinator and you have uh so you know they went out and they felt the need to get Swift and it looks like at least to me I'm I could be wrong in this but at reading between the tea leaves it seems like Kio Herbert is the one that's kind of like lost favor a little bit with this new regime because ran Johnson's been playing over him and you know Herbert I think was was the guy playing into that preseason second preseason game so I it's it was it's kind of a head scratcher but I I think Swift will be fine I don't think he's like oh you gotta run out and draft him but I'm I'm not like hard fading him either um I'm fine if I get him there but uh I'm usually not really drafting running back that at that point in the draft I'm usually I am usually waiting until I start getting down and seeing who Falls to me you know in that 30 to 35 37 range um so I'm kind of going like a hero running back strategy and and not really drafting too many of those guys um but but I don't hate if I get Swift but I'm not excited about it either so you mentioned kind of the hero RB strategy one name that some people are using for that strategy as Kiren Williams but Raybon that's somebody you're avoiding also for me it's just last year was the time to get Kiren Williams like this year the running backs I I feel good about are obviously mcaffrey Bree Hall ban Robinson and Jonathan Taylor saquon Barkley you could you could make a great case for him he's getting a little older new situation guys on new teams tend to not produce as well but whatever the issue with kirn Williams is we Sean McVey is very predictable we know how to read between the te leaves with him he rested Kon Williams all preseason with the rest of the starters he also rested Blake Corum a rookie who has never played an NFL snap in his life and yet this guy's resting already being treated as a starter Kyon Williams through two years never played more than 12 games uh last year the most touches he had since high school he never had that many touches in college as he had last year I I just think that the Rams know how valuable he is they want to kind of cut the workload a little and so um is he going to be a complete bust and finish like outside the top 24 I don't think so but I just don't think you want to be paying a running back seven price for a guy who I think uh is more likely to have a floor year than a ceiling year like I don't I don't think he's likely to beat out uh a Taylor or a Bree or guys like that again this year I think it's more likely that he his workload comes down a little bit there's some regression and and uh that he still uh is is still one of the I think least durable backs just because of his size and and whatnot so I just think rb7 is not where you want to be like there's I think there's a big drop off from even a guy like a jir Gibbs um or a sequin to a to a kir Williams i' rather have a guy like Travis eten who I'm more confident will will have a a a heavier workload and play more snaps for the dur for the entirety of the year I totally agree I find that Williams is one of the more interesting and somewhat difficult players for me to rank this year but there is always someone in the drafts I'm in who likes him more than me like I'm just getting very little because I don't think the cost is one that I want to pay and there's other names that I like in that area there's other running backs I'd prefer you know either earlier or a little later than him so I I'm just not getting a lot of kirne even though like when you had if you had him last year like when he was healthy was there a more fun player to have on your roster than Kiren Williams no but I I just think it's very different um you know going into this year and you know we are playing for 2024 not for 2023 and it's important to remember that uh Debro Kiren Williams are you you know for him where he's going or are you fading I'm a little bit below consensus so I will get exposure to him I don't have him at rb7 I got him at rb9 like I've got Mixon and depending on what his hamstring stuff like maybe I bump him behind Kiron uh but I got Derrick Henry over him too so I will get exposure to Kiren like the way that I see that backfield this year is I think I think korm was brought in so we don't see the Kiren 22 25 touches per game I think corm was brought in to take some of that workload away like8 to 10 touches per game predominantly in the early Downs probably when they're leading in positive game scripts if they get there but I think when the games are close I still think Kiron is the better passing down back I think he's still going to be the clear lead like probably 65 70% of the snaps so it really comes down to health for him but I think that's another reason why they brought him in so his touch counts stay reasonable for his size and try to keep him healthy instead of saying okay here's 25 touches although we probably don't see you for another two or three weeks after this game there you go I think that's why they brought corm in though and even though Kiren is not like he profiles as a guy who should catch a lot of passes he really didn't catch a lot of passes even with that heavy roll last year so that that's another thing like we're all playing in at least half PPR these days it's like if I'm going to take our rb7 like a who doesn't catch passes like it' better be Derek hry who's going to get like 200 like 300 caries if he stays healthy all 16 17 games so that's a good point Raybon especially because Stafford like he's YOLO man like it's not like he does he's never had like a super super high checkdown rate so it's like even though he's a pocket passer like if it's like well I could check it down or I could just go 30 yards down the field he's going 30 yards down the field absolutely you are spot on to that like we're basically all playing half PPR now I had somebody the other day just a friend of mine asked me for some draft advice and I asked the scoring setting and he was like oh it's standard there's no PPR and like not to knock people who play that way but I did a double take I was like I can't remember the last time somebody asked me a question for an actual standard League it's just becomes so prevalent to go the other way um another player rayon that you wanted to avoid who is kind of based on Volume last year with his success was Rashad white um are you kind of projecting just less volume this year um do you have problems with the player why are you avoiding white love this call I think it's just a a combination of all those things so number one I think that whole offense could take a step back Canal is uh his his his impact might be underrated I mean Seattle Gino has a career here a couple years ago under his watch and then he goes to Tampa Bay all of a sudden Baker Mayfield has a career so now I think that offense takes a step back the interior of the line is the worst uh like is the worst part of the line for the bucks I mean it could be really bad they're starting a rookie at Center and their guards are pretty bad so um it's not like he's getting any help and then I think the player is is is average I think I didn't like the fact that down the stretch they did tried to um you know alleviate some of his workload especially in the passing game you still have Edmonds Bucky Irving I think anytime another thing to kind of watch Sim similar with Kiren right when you have a when you have a t and I I get that why you were fading Jacobs earlier which makes sense anytime you have a talented rookie even if you're not high on that rookie and I am high on Irving but even if you're not like it is something to Monitor and kind of be aware of so like Rashad white you know last year it was him it was Chase Edmonds who we know what Chase Edmonds is and it was Tucker who didn't pan out really but this year you have Bucky Irving who I think is can add a dimension to that offense so I think the the role is a little bit in danger I don't think the players anything special I don't like the offensive line I think the offense is going to be lower scoring which cuts into the touchdown equity and it just seems like last year last year was the year to own Rashad white last year was the year to own Kiren Williams you know I know last year is still gonna correlate the most to this year but it's not it's not it's nowhere near 100% correlation and that's kind of our job is to find these guys that are going to regress and and and uh not perform as well and I think Rashad W is a prime candidate to be more of like a middling rb2 I think that we expected him to be last year um rather than this like highend rb2 borderline rb1 Debo you were nodding and and saying that you totally agreed with this call I love everything Raybon just said right now I love every bit of it I it Rashad white burned me last year because I have a hard time investing in guys like where it's just like okay if he gets all the volume then it's a volume play and then he outpaces everything like I have a hard time investing in guys that like I don't think are supremely talented players like if you look at every efficiency metric basically out there okay he was good in the passing game but from a tackle breaking perspective he was nothing special and if you also go and listen to Todd B's talk he's talked about when he's mentioned Bucky Irving and he's talked about the backfield he's also thrown a little bit of side shade at Rashad W being like well a got a lot of big plays out of the Run game last year blah blah blah and yes to raybon's point that offensive line they added some parts of pieces it's still probably going to be a bottom five to 10 offensive line so if you can't break tackles on his own I don't think the offensive line this year is doing him a ton of favors I'm I'm absolutely with this like I've got Rashad white at rb16 and I I could make you a case where I could bump him in a little bit lower too quick reminder for everybody to join our fantasy pros Discord Community chat with other fans and get access to exclusive amas that wind up on our podcast feed you can join the fun with Joe Welsh and bogs Mondays at 2 Eastern Fitz and bogs Tuesdays at 5 Eastern and Welsh and Ericson Thursdays at 3 Eastern come get your questions answered and be on the show at fantasypros.com chat all right guys let's talk about a couple wide receivers that we're avoiding as well in Debra I want to start with Devonte Adams somebody highlighted ADP is several spots higher than where we're ranking him uh why are you avoiding a guy who's been really good for a long time this really comes down to the old adage of don't hate the player hate the ADP I don't understand how we can rank him as a wide receiver one when nothing has been like what's better about this Raiders offense what what what what's better about it like quarterback play we don't think is going to be amazing Gardner mchu was not good last year Aiden oconnell still not great so whoever is the starting quarterback I know menu is getting the nod right now I don't really care I don't think either one of them are very good Devonte Adams being drafted as a wide receiver one and he didn't even finish his that last year he was a wide receiver 15 in fantasy points per game and this is like he was top three in every volume metric you can find so it's like okay quarterback play didn't get any better volume's not going to be any better because you can't get any more volume than basically he got last year they probably run a little bit of a slower off offense this year with Luke getsy out there so how are we ranking him as a wide receiver one that's what I don't get like you were to tell me he was a wide receiver two in ranks sure fine let's draft Devonte Adams wide receiver one priz tag no can't see it no Raybon what are you doing with Devonte honestly I go back and forth but like so here's here's my thing at receiver everyone after like AJ Brown so like starting from like wide receiver eight to like wide receiver 24 25 like after you get to like T Higgins DJ Moore that area I have them separated by like one point per game so I don't really care who I get in that range I'm not overpaying to get Devonte Adams so uh I'm not getting a ton of him I don't hate him at that price because he's I think these are all kind of floor guys and some of them are are going to hit ceilings I don't like I don't think that he's in a great offense and so but at the same time it's like who what are my Alternatives it's like if it's is it it's Debo maybe if if auk goes it's Harrison Jr who's never played a snap it's ove who hates his quarterback it's Garrett Wilson who was on a team with a good defense it's Drake London who we kind of projecting for a lot more routes because and off the offense gonna be all one1 but you know like it's they're all the same to me like I don't I'm not fading him per se but I I agree that like you shouldn't be uh reaching for Devonte Adams as like this like Bonafide wide receiver one because yeah 175 targets last year and he still couldn't finish as a as as one so it might it might just be about that time DB bro another receiver that you're avoiding Hollywood Brown now on the Chiefs wide receiver 41 ADP uh you know is you know ecr's wide receiver 42 so about that range for both of them um obviously got the injury concerns already here you know steming from the injury from that week one of the preseason um they needed receiver help compared to last year they added Xavier worthy obviously there's some question marks about rashy rice maybe now Hollywood Brown somewhat injured so it's not the easiest receiving room to kind of parse through when you're trying to to do ranks but Hollywood Brown I mean if he is healthy you can kind of paint the picture of oh the speed what a great fit with Mahomes the same way we're doing with Xavier worthy um I kind of get why you're avoiding him though can you touch on that I don't trust him to stay healthy and I was making this case even before he already got injured so raybon's talking about like you know kind of fading guys that are already injured before we start the season I mean Hollywood Brown like when is he stay like he's barely stayed healthy throughout his entire career he came into the NFL dealing with foot problems so like you you add all of that on top of a player that even if you look at just the profile his yards per route run has dropped in each of the last four seasons amongst 81 qualifying wide receivers last year he was 62nd in yards per route run and 48th in first downs per route run so it's like outside of it being oh the Kansas City chief effect and Patrick Mahomes and stuff like that what what in his profile says You must draft him I I don't get that so I'm just going to keep avoiding him I'll draft worthy I'll take the shot on Rashid rice or Kelsey or whatever I I love all other parts and pieces of this offense not named Hollywood Brown Raybon are you avoiding Brown as well particularly given what you mentioned about the injuries earlier yeah he's it's like I now it's like him and worthy are pretty much even in my ranks so uh worthy still usually has a lower ADP not always but usually so I still rather have worthy I mean I agree I think I think you have to factor in and not just the durability but the when when it makes sense with the body type too because it's like brown is a smaller Guy and um and also you know most of the places he's been he's kind of been in a position to be like a number one or number two target whereas here Kelsey rice worthy I mean you could conceivably be number four in targets per route run on this team even if you are like an 85 90% snap player uh so that there I think there's more downside and I just I don't I just don't know about the upside with with rice uh looking like he's probably not going to miss a substantial amount of games as as first feared yeah I mean injuries will find you right so why intentionally start off with them um we we're going to get going soon I do want to quickly wrap up with you guys both s suggested players to avoid on the Packers so I want to kind of have you each make the case for either side Dro you want to avoid Jaden Reed this year Raybon you want avoid Christian Watson I don't know if you heard at the end of the last segment we were kind of BU up Christian Watson so it's nice to have you come in and pour some cold water on that so let's start with why you're avoiding Watson listen the guy's talented and so are about seven other skill players on the Green Bay Packers and Christian Watson is the one of those guys who has it's like it's like kyen Williams all over again like this guy he's been two years in the league and he hasn't know played a full season yet he got hurt the other day in Camp just like what going up for a pass and he like missed the preseason game or something like he like everything this guy just can't stay healthy and now the last thing you wanted to see in the preseason was dant Tavi and Wicks catching a long touchdown because that again when there's uncertainty it's like Christian Watson is still being drafted is like okay right as like a fringe like okay he's not a a Bonafide like starting wide receiver but he's one of the first guys you're taking as like an upside guy um you know that that may that probably sits on your bench to start the year and so I get that there's not a ton of risk but I just see a lot better guys at at cheaper adps I don't trust him to stay healthy I don't trust him to be even when he is healthy an 85 90% snap player like some of the other guys I can get in this range because you have a guy like Jaden re who I think I know where you're going to go with this because you know his snap count is in but realistically Reed dos Wix and Watson are all good that you like they all may run on a like on average 65 to 75% of the routes and that is like that's just caps their upside and then that wouldn't be as much of a issue if you didn't also have two tight ends that I mean you I don't know if like what the health status of craft is but eventually you figure there' be two tight ends in the mix and you also got uh you know running backs that you want to get into in the route in Lloyd if he ever gets healthy so there's just only so many routes to go around um and touchdowns are the most fickle stat like touchdowns are like yeah he could have he start his career catching a touchdown on you know over 10% of his catches and we've seen courland Sutton do this like two touchdowns 10 touchdowns you know Mike Evans like so I can't I can't just hitch my ride to touchdowns I think I I I rather just invest in a cheaper Romeo dobs uh who still I think probably the favorite to weed the the Packers in in routes so yeah that that's that's why I'm fing Watson just a lot of mouse to feed there Deb we've got a dream team of Chris Welsh Andrew Erikson and Scott panowski waiting in the wings so very quickly Jaden Reed why are you avoiding him it comes down to routes I don't think he's going to be a full-time player uh Raybon talked about 12 and 21 personnel and you're looking at Jaden Reed last year and Raybon talked about it fading touchdowns you're telling me the guy can't even surpass 60% of the snap and he scored the fifth most touchdowns amongst wide receivers last year it's it's an easy fade uh for wide receiver 43 and expected fantasy points per game